London, United Kingdom 2020 Presidential Election Research Six

London, United Kingdom

2020 Presidential Election Research Six Swing States 7 September 2020

Methodology

Arizona Pennsylvania

Sample Size: 830 Sample Size: 1053 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 04.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Margin of Error: 3.40% Margin of Error: 3.02% North Carolina Michigan

Sample Size: 951 Sample Size: 967 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Margin of Error: 3.18% Margin of Error: 3.15% Florida Wisconsin

Sample Size: 1093 Size: 670 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 03.09.2020 Fieldwork Dates: 30.08.2020 - 04.09.2020 Margin of Error: 2.96% Margin of Error: 3.78%

Interview Method: Online Web Survey (compatible with both computers & smartphones). Survey questions were available in English and Spanish.

Populations Sampled: Representative samples of registered voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Sampling Method: Representative samples were selected through registered panel providers.

Weighting: Data weighted according to the profile of adults (18+) in each state. Data weighted by age, gender, region, education level, race, and 2016 Presidential Election Vote. Targets for age, gender, education, and race were derived from the 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.1 Targets for region based on the county-level estimates by the US Census; categorization of counties into regions our own.2 Targets for past vote were derived from the official results of the 2016 Presidential Election.

Turnout Weighting: In order to best assess the current voting intention of the public, we asked respondents how likely they are to vote in the Presidential Election on November 3rd, based on a well-defined scale of 0 to 5, where each number is carefully defined as follows:

0 (Definitely will not vote) 1 (Probably will not vote) 2 (Leaning towards not voting, but could vote) 3 (Leaning towards voting, but might not vote) 4 (Probably will vote) 5 (Certain to vote)

Their likelihood to vote was then weighted to the subsequent answers they gave when asked whom they would vote for. The voting intention of those who responded ‘5’ were weighted by a factor of 1.0, ‘4’ by a factor of 0.8, ‘3’ by a factor of 0.6, ‘2’ by a factor of 0.4 and ‘1’ by a factor of 0.2. Those who responded ‘0’ were not asked at all whom they would vote, because it was considered that they would not vote.

For our voting intention questions for US Senate and State Governor elections, we presented respondents with a separate likelihood to vote question for those specific races in order to weight appropriately.

It is important to note that our turnout weighting does not aim to predict turnout itself but only aims to marry respondents’ actual enthusiasm for voting to their stated voting preferences. Those who said they are not registered to vote in the States surveyed were excluded.

1 For age, gender, race and education estimates, see: data.census.gov 2 For county-level data, see: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html

Methodology

Voting Intention: After being asked their likelihoods to vote, respondents were then asked for whom they will vote in November if they were to vote. The possible responses, presented in a randomized order, were "Donald J. Trump (Republican)", "Joseph R. Biden (Democrat)", “Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian)”, “Howie Hawkins (Green)”, "Other (Third Party/Write-In", and "Don't Know". The option “Kanye West (Independent)” was included in those states where he could still qualify to be on the ballot. Those who said they were certain not to vote were not prompted and were counted as 'won't vote' Our voting intention results presented here incorporate respondents’ stated likelihood to vote.

Margin of Error: Because only a subset of the American population was surveyed for this research, all results are subject to a margin of error. By consequence, not all differences are statistically significant, especially among subsamples.

The margin of errors provided above mark the range within which the true value falls if 50.0% of respondents gave a particular answer to a question––the worse-case scenario from the perspective of margin of error––at a 95.0% confidence level.

Subsample results from crosstabs are subject to a higher margin of error due to their lower sample sizes. Conclusions drawn from small subsamples should be treated with caution. We particularly emphasize caution when reporting on any subsample figures where the base is below 50 respondents.

* Due to rounding, some percentages presented below may add up to 99 or 101. * Questions presented below are shown in the order that they were presented to respondents.

Additional information: Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its rules.3

3 See: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/

Presidential Election

On a scale from 0 to 5, how likely are you to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 6% 0 (I will definitely not vote) 4% 1 (I will probably not vote) 2% 1 (I will probably not vote) 3% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I 3% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might 7% might still vote) still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might 5% 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not 3% not vote) vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 9% 4 (I will probably vote) 10% 5 (I will certainly vote) 75% 5 (I will certainly vote) 73%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 6% 0 (I will definitely not vote) 5% 1 (I will probably not vote) 4% 1 (I will probably not vote) 2% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I 5% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might 4% might still vote) still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might 7% 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not 2% not vote) vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 11% 4 (I will probably vote) 9% 5 (I will certainly vote) 68% 5 (I will certainly vote) 77%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 5% 0 (I will definitely not vote) 6% 1 (I will probably not vote) 5% 1 (I will probably not vote) 2% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I 7% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might 3% might still vote) still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might 6% 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not 4% not vote) vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 9% 4 (I will probably vote) 8% 5 (I will certainly vote) 69% 5 (I will certainly vote) 77%

For whom will you vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053)

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 43% Donald J. Trump (Republican) 43% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 48% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 48% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 0% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) 1% Kanye West (Independent) 0% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 1% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 0% Don’t Know 7% Don’t Know 6% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967)

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 44% Donald J. Trump (Republican) 40% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 43% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 51% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) 0% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 1% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 1% Don’t Know 9% Don’t Know 7%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670)

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 44% Donald J. Trump (Republican) 41% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 47% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 50% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 2% Howie Hawkins (Green) 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) 0% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 1% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 0% Don’t Know 6% Don’t Know 6%

How certain, if at all, are you now that you will indeed vote for the candidate you have just selected over the other candidates presented? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to those who say they will vote, except those that do not know who they will vote for.)

Arizona (n = 718) Pennsylvania (n = 924)

0 – Not at all certain 3% 0 – Not at all certain 1% 1 – Somewhat certain 5% 1 – Somewhat certain 8% 2 – Moderately certain 11% 2 – Moderately certain 14% 3 – Extremely certain 82% 3 – Extremely certain 77%

North Carolina (n = 823) Michigan (n = 829)

0 – Not at all certain 2% 0 – Not at all certain 1% 1 – Somewhat certain 7% 1 – Somewhat certain 6% 2 – Moderately certain 17% 2 – Moderately certain 15% 3 – Extremely certain 73% 3 – Extremely certain 78%

Florida (n = 959) Wisconsin (n = 583)

0 – Not at all certain 2% 0 – Not at all certain 1% 1 – Somewhat certain 7% 1 – Somewhat certain 6% 2 – Moderately certain 16% 2 – Moderately certain 14% 3 – Extremely certain 76% 3 – Extremely certain 79%

Comparison to Past Results

If you are to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 41% 39% 38% 38% 43% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 45% 43% 46% 47% 48% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 2% 2% 2% 0% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 1% 1% 1% 1% Kanye West (Independent) — — 2% 2% 0% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% Don’t Know 11% 13% 11% 10% 6%

North Carolina May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 43% 40% 42% 46% 44% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 45% 46% 43% 44% 43% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 1% 2% 2% 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 0% 1% 0% 1% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t Know 9% 11% 11% 7% 9%

Florida May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 43% 41% 41% 41% 44% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 45% 45% 48% 49% 47% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 1% 1% 1% 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 1% 1% 1% 1% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t Know 11% 11% 8% 7% 6%

Pennsylvania May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 39% 39% 41% 41% 43% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 48% 49% 48% 48% 48% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 1% 1% 1% 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 1% 0% 1% 1% Kanye West (Independent) — — 1% 1% — Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don’t Know 11% 9% 8% 8% 7%

Michigan (n = 824) May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 39% 36% 37% 38% 40% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 47% 47% 49% 50% 51% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 2% 1% 1% 1% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 1% 1% 1% 0% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% Don’t Know 11% 12% 10% 9% 7%

Wisconsin (n = 636) May June July August September

Donald J. Trump (Republican) 38% 36% 35% 39% 41% Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) 48% 45% 45% 49% 50% Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) — 1% 2% 1% 2% Howie Hawkins (Green) — 1% 0% 1% 0% Kanye West (Independent) — — 2% 1% — Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% Don’t Know 11% 15% 15% 7% 6%

US Senate Election

How likely are you to vote in the US Senate Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 830) Michigan (n = 967)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 4% 0 (I will definitely not vote) 4% 1 (I will probably not vote) 4% 1 (I will probably not vote) 4% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I 4% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might 3% might still vote) still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might 5% 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not 6% not vote) vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 12% 4 (I will probably vote) 12% 5 (I will certainly vote) 71% 5 (I will certainly vote) 72%

North Carolina (n = 951)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 5% 1 (I will probably not vote) 4% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I 6% might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might 9% not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 13% 5 (I will certainly vote) 62%

If you are to vote in the US Senate Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Michigan (n = 967)

Martha McSally (Republican) 38% John James (Republican) 38% Mark Kelly (Democrat) 53% Gary Peters (Democrat) 50% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 2% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 1% Don’t Know 7% Don’t Know 11% North Carolina (n = 951)

Thom Tillis (Republican) 37% Cal Cunningham (Democrat) 47% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 3% Don’t Know 13%

North Carolina Governor Election

How likely are you to vote in the North Carolina State Governor Election on 3 November 2020? (n = 951)

0 (I will definitely not vote) 6% 1 (I will probably not vote) 4% 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 6% 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 7% 4 (I will probably vote) 13% 5 (I will certainly vote) 65%

If you are to vote in the North Carolina State Governor Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.) (n = 951)

Dan Forest (Republican) 35% Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54% Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) 2% Don’t Know 9%

Follow-Up Presidential Questions

On a scale from 0 to 5, how comfortable would you feel sharing with your friends and family how you intend to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) 0 – Very uncomfortable 7% 0 – Very uncomfortable 7% 1 – Uncomfortable 6% 1 – Uncomfortable 5% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 7% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 5% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 7% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 10% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 16% 4 – Comfortable 18% 5 – Very comfortable 54% 5 – Very comfortable 51% Don’t know 4% Don’t know 3%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) 0 – Very uncomfortable 8% 0 – Very uncomfortable 7% 1 – Uncomfortable 4% 1 – Uncomfortable 6% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 7% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 8% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 10% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 8% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 19% 4 – Comfortable 21% 5 – Very comfortable 48% 5 – Very comfortable 46% Don’t know 4% Don’t know 4%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) 0 – Very uncomfortable 7% 0 – Very uncomfortable 8% 1 – Uncomfortable 4% 1 – Uncomfortable 7% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 7% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 7% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 9% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 7% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 19% 4 – Comfortable 20% 5 – Very comfortable 52% 5 – Very comfortable 47% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 4%

If you are to vote, by what means are you most likely to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 785) Pennsylvania (n = 1010) In person, on election day 22% In person, on election day 60% In person, prior to election day 9% By mail (absentee ballot) 33% By mail (absentee ballot) 62% Don’t know 7% Don’t know 7%

North Carolina (n = 912) Michigan (n = 914) In person, on election day 34% In person, on election day 35% In person, prior to election day 34% In person, prior to election day 7% By mail (absentee ballot) 23% By mail (absentee ballot) 52% Don’t know 9% Don’t know 6%

Florida (n = 1044) Wisconsin (n = 636) In person, on election day 32% In person, on election day 45% In person, prior to election day 24% In person, prior to election day 12% By mail (absentee ballot) 38% By mail (absentee ballot) 38% Don’t know 6% Don’t know 5%

Considering the coronavirus situation in your state, on a scale of 0 to 5, to what extent do you think you would feel comfortable voting in person in November? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 785) Pennsylvania (n = 1010) 0 – Very uncomfortable 13% 0 – Very uncomfortable 9% 1 – Uncomfortable 16% 1 – Uncomfortable 12% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 14% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 14% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 11% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 12% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 13% 4 – Comfortable 16% 5 – Very comfortable 31% 5 – Very comfortable 33% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 3% North Carolina (n = 912) Michigan (n = 914) 0 – Very uncomfortable 10% 0 – Very uncomfortable 14% 1 – Uncomfortable 9% 1 – Uncomfortable 13% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 15% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 14% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 15% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 12% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 21% 4 – Comfortable 18% 5 – Very comfortable 27% 5 – Very comfortable 28% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 2%

Florida (n = 1044) Wisconsin (n = 636) 0 – Very uncomfortable 13% 0 – Very uncomfortable 11% 1 – Uncomfortable 12% 1 – Uncomfortable 13% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 13% 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than 16% comfortable comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 12% 3 – Slightly more comfortable than 9% uncomfortable uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 19% 4 – Comfortable 19% 5 – Very comfortable 30% 5 – Very comfortable 29% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 4%

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s overall job performance since he became President?

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly approve 25% Strongly approve 21% Approve 15% Approve 19% Neither approve nor disapprove 7% Neither approve nor disapprove 8% Disapprove 9% Disapprove 11% Strongly disapprove 43% Strongly disapprove 40% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 2%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly approve 23% Strongly approve 23% Approve 18% Approve 15% Neither approve nor disapprove 10% Neither approve nor disapprove 6% Disapprove 12% Disapprove 10% Strongly disapprove 34% Strongly disapprove 44% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 1%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly approve 27% Strongly approve 22% Approve 17% Approve 18% Neither approve nor disapprove 9% Neither approve nor disapprove 7% Disapprove 8% Disapprove 11% Strongly disapprove 39% Strongly disapprove 40% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 1%

At this moment, between the candidates of the two main political parties, who do you think is more likely to win the 2020 Presidential Election? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Joe Biden is more likely to win. 29% Joe Biden is more likely to win. 33% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 39% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 38% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 13% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 12% likely to win. likely to win. Don’t know. 20% Don’t know. 17%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Joe Biden is more likely to win. 32% Joe Biden is more likely to win. 36% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 39% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 35% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 13% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 13% likely to win. likely to win. Don’t know. 15% Don’t know. 16%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Joe Biden is more likely to win. 34% Joe Biden is more likely to win. 31% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 39% Donald Trump is more likely to win. 32% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 13% Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally 19% likely to win. likely to win. Don’t know. 14% Don’t know. 18%

You have indicated that you will vote for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. How enthusiastic, if at all, are you about voting for him? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention.)

Arizona (n = 322) Pennsylvania (n = 411)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 7% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 6% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 11% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 15% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 19% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 21% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 63% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 60%

North Carolina (n = 396) Michigan (n = 342)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 4% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 5% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 15% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 15% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 22% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 16% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 59% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 65%

Florida (n = 416) Wisconsin (n = 251)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 2% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 6% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 10% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 11% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 18% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 20% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 70% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 63%

You have indicated that you will vote for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. Would you say you are voting for him primarily because you support Donald Trump or primarily because you do not support his Democratic opponent Joe Biden? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention)

Arizona (n = 322) Pennsylvania (n = 411)

Primarily because I support Donald 77% Primarily because I support Donald 77% Trump. Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden. 23% Primarily because I do oppose Joe Biden. 23%

North Carolina (n = 396) Michigan (n = 351)

Primarily because I support Donald 76% Primarily because I support Donald 80% Trump. Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden. 24% Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden. 20%

Florida (n = 416) Wisconsin (n = 251)

Primarily because I support Donald 84% Primarily because I support Donald 79% Trump. Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden. 16% Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden. 21%

You have indicated that you will vote for Joe Biden in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. How enthusiastic, if at all, are you about voting for him? (Asked to those who responded Joe Biden to voting intention.)

Arizona (n = 359) Pennsylvania (n = 478)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 3% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 6% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 16% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 20% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 30% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 30% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 51% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 45%

North Carolina (n = 394) Michigan (n = 453)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 5% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 7% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 20% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 17% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 28% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 25% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 47% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 52%

Florida (n = 493) Wisconsin (n = 307)

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 5% 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 5% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 17% 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 24% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 29% 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 24% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 49% 3 (Very enthusiastic) 47%

You have indicated that you will vote for Joe Biden in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. Would you say you are voting for him primarily because you support Joe Biden or primarily because you do not support his Republican opponent Donald Trump? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention)

Arizona (n = 359) Pennsylvania (n = 478)

Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 51% Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 50% Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump. 49% Primarily because I oppose Donald 50% Trump. North Carolina (n = 394) Michigan (n = 453)

Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 49% Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 53% Primarily because I oppose Donald 51% Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump. 47% Trump. Florida (n = 493) Wisconsin (n = 307)

Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 58% Primarily because I support Joe Biden. 40% Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump. 42% Primarily because I oppose Donald 60% Trump.

Candidate Characteristics

Thinking about Donald Trump, please indicate whether you think he could be characterized in the following way: Donald Trump is someone who…

Arizona (n = 830) Yes No DK Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 34% 57% 10% Is a strong leader. 46% 50% 3% Cares about people like me. 31% 59% 11% Cares about people like me. 36% 57% 7% Tells the truth. 48% 47% 5% Tells the truth. 30% 58% 11% Knows how to get things done. 44% 54% 2% Knows how to get things done. 49% 47% 4% Stands up for the interests of the 44% 47% 8% Stands up for the interests of the 48% 48% 4% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 44% 51% 5% Can work with foreign leaders. 41% 51% 8% Understands the problems afflicting 47% 45% 8% Understands the problems 41% 53% 6% America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 52% 36% 12% Can get the economy going again. 50% 43% 7% Will be tough on China. 36% 54% 10% Will be tough on China. 56% 34% 10% Is willing to work with the other 44% 49% 7% Is willing to work with the other 36% 54% 10% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 39% 48% 13% Represents change. 44% 48% 7% Is in good physical and mental 45% 49% 6% Is in good physical and mental 41% 47% 12% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 40% 52% 7% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 46% 48% 6% Does what he promises to do. 32% 59% 10% Does what he promises to do. 42% 50% 8% Can bring Americans together. 40% 48% 12% Can bring Americans together. 32% 57% 11% Avoids unnecessary military 35% 51% 13% Avoids unnecessary military 41% 48% 11% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 44% 47% 9% Will pick the best Supreme Court 38% 48% 14% Justices. Justices.

North Carolina (n = 951) Yes No DK Michigan (n = 967) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 46% 47% 7% Is a strong leader. 42% 54% 4% Cares about people like me. 37% 54% 9% Cares about people like me. 34% 58% 8% Tells the truth. 32% 57% 11% Tells the truth. 28% 62% 10% Knows how to get things done. 50% 45% 5% Knows how to get things done. 46% 50% 5% Stands up for the interests of the 48% 47% 5% Stands up for the interests of the 43% 53% 4% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 40% 51% 9% Can work with foreign leaders. 37% 53% 10% Understands the problems afflicting 43% 49% 8% Understands the problems 38% 55% 7% America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 50% 41% 9% Can get the economy going again. 48% 45% 8% Will be tough on China. 55% 32% 12% Will be tough on China. 49% 38% 13% Is willing to work with the other 39% 51% 10% Is willing to work with the other 32% 57% 11% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 45% 47% 8% Represents change. 43% 50% 7% Is in good physical and mental 41% 45% 14% Is in good physical and mental 38% 47% 15% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 46% 46% 8% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 42% 52% 6% Does what he promises to do. 44% 48% 8% Does what he promises to do. 39% 55% 6% Can bring Americans together. 35% 54% 12% Can bring Americans together. 30% 60% 10% Avoids unnecessary military 40% 45% 15% Avoids unnecessary military 39% 48% 13% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 40% 44% 16% Will pick the best Supreme Court 36% 50% 13% Justices. Justices.

Continued on next page.

Florida (n = 1093) Yes No DK Wisconsin (n = 670) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 48% 48% 4% Is a strong leader. 45% 50% 5% Cares about people like me. 37% 55% 8% Cares about people like me. 36% 56% 8% Tells the truth. 35% 57% 8% Tells the truth. 31% 58% 11% Knows how to get things done. 49% 48% 3% Knows how to get things done. 49% 47% 4% Stands up for the interests of the 48% 48% 4% Stands up for the interests of the 47% 49% 5% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 43% 50% 6% Can work with foreign leaders. 41% 50% 9% Understands the problems afflicting 45% 51% 5% Understands the problems 44% 51% 6% America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 51% 44% 5% Can get the economy going again. 50% 40% 9% Will be tough on China. 55% 37% 8% Will be tough on China. 57% 32% 10% Is willing to work with the other 40% 53% 8% Is willing to work with the other 33% 56% 11% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 46% 48% 6% Represents change. 44% 48% 7% Is in good physical and mental 41% 48% 11% Is in good physical and mental 42% 45% 13% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 47% 48% 5% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 44% 51% 5% Does what he promises to do. 43% 51% 6% Does what he promises to do. 41% 50% 9% Can bring Americans together. 39% 53% 8% Can bring Americans together. 33% 55% 12% Avoids unnecessary military 41% 48% 10% Avoids unnecessary military 40% 46% 14% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 41% 48% 11% Will pick the best Supreme Court 38% 47% 15% Justices. Justices.

*DK = Don’t Know

Thinking about Joe Biden, please indicate whether you think he could be characterized in the following way: Joe Biden is someone who…

Arizona (n = 830) Yes No DK Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 47% 41% 12% Is a strong leader. 44% 46% 10% Cares about people like me. 39% 45% 16% Cares about people like me. 52% 38% 10% Tells the truth. 45% 43% 12% Tells the truth. 42% 42% 16% Knows how to get things done. 51% 40% 9% Knows how to get things done. 44% 40% 16% Stands up for the interests of the 51% 33% 16% Stands up for the interests of the 53% 38% 9% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 53% 38% 9% Can work with foreign leaders. 51% 33% 16% Understands the problems 42% 41% 17% Understands the problems 53% 38% 9% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 32% 44% 24% Can get the economy going again. 42% 40% 18% Will be tough on China. 51% 35% 13% Will be tough on China. 30% 46% 23% Is willing to work with the other 47% 40% 14% Is willing to work with the other 51% 35% 14% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 36% 44% 20% Represents change. 48% 41% 11% Is in good physical and mental 47% 41% 12% Is in good physical and mental 37% 44% 19% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 39% 40% 21% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 48% 40% 12% Does what he promises to do. 44% 41% 15% Does what he promises to do. 41% 39% 20% Can bring Americans together. 42% 33% 25% Can bring Americans together. 47% 39% 14% Avoids unnecessary military 40% 37% 22% Avoids unnecessary military 43% 34% 23% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 45% 44% 10% Will pick the best Supreme Court 43% 36% 21% Justices. Justices.

North Carolina (n = 951) Yes No DK Michigan (n = 967) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 42% 48% 10% Is a strong leader. 47% 42% 11% Cares about people like me. 46% 44% 10% Cares about people like me. 53% 37% 10% Tells the truth. 38% 45% 17% Tells the truth. 45% 40% 16% Knows how to get things done. 43% 44% 13% Knows how to get things done. 50% 36% 14% Stands up for the interests of the 47% 43% 11% Stands up for the interests of the 55% 34% 10% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 48% 35% 17% Can work with foreign leaders. 55% 30% 15% Understands the problems 49% 40% 12% Understands the problems 56% 33% 11% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 38% 46% 15% Can get the economy going again. 44% 38% 18% Will be tough on China. 28% 50% 22% Will be tough on China. 35% 42% 22% Is willing to work with the other 48% 38% 14% Is willing to work with the other 54% 31% 15% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 45% 44% 11% Represents change. 50% 37% 12% Is in good physical and mental 33% 50% 17% Is in good physical and mental 39% 41% 19% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 44% 44% 12% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 52% 35% 12% Does what he promises to do. 37% 43% 20% Does what he promises to do. 44% 35% 21% Can bring Americans together. 42% 44% 15% Can bring Americans together. 48% 36% 16% Avoids unnecessary military 42% 36% 22% Avoids unnecessary military 47% 28% 24% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 37% 42% 20% Will pick the best Supreme Court 44% 35% 20% Justices. Justices.

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Florida (n = 1093) Yes No DK Wisconsin (n = 670) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. 48% 43% 10% Is a strong leader. 45% 44% 11% Cares about people like me. 53% 37% 10% Cares about people like me. 54% 35% 11% Tells the truth. 47% 39% 14% Tells the truth. 44% 37% 19% Knows how to get things done. 49% 39% 12% Knows how to get things done. 47% 39% 14% Stands up for the interests of the 55% 35% 9% Stands up for the interests of the 53% 39% 8% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 53% 34% 13% Can work with foreign leaders. 56% 29% 15% Understands the problems 56% 35% 8% Understands the problems 56% 34% 9% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 44% 40% 16% Can get the economy going again. 46% 39% 15% Will be tough on China. 33% 44% 22% Will be tough on China. 29% 44% 27% Is willing to work with the other 54% 33% 13% Is willing to work with the other 53% 32% 15% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 52% 36% 11% Represents change. 50% 39% 11% Is in good physical and mental 42% 41% 16% Is in good physical and mental 37% 46% 17% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 50% 39% 11% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 49% 41% 9% Does what he promises to do. 45% 38% 17% Does what he promises to do. 44% 36% 19% Can bring Americans together. 51% 37% 12% Can bring Americans together. 48% 36% 16% Avoids unnecessary military 48% 34% 19% Avoids unnecessary military 46% 28% 26% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 48% 35% 17% Will pick the best Supreme Court 45% 36% 19% Justices. Justices.

*DK = Don’t Know

Now, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which candidate do you think best embodies the following characteristics:

Arizona (n = 830) JB DT DK Pennsylvania (n = 1053) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. 49% 36% 16% Is a strong leader. 45% 45% 9% Cares about people like me. 45% 32% 22% Cares about people like me. 51% 36% 13% Tells the truth. 43% 45% 12% Tells the truth. 46% 31% 23% Knows how to get things done. 49% 42% 10% Knows how to get things done. 45% 46% 9% Stands up for the interests of the 48% 39% 13% Stands up for the interests of the 49% 43% 8% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 49% 38% 13% Can work with foreign leaders. 48% 41% 11% Understands the problems 41% 44% 15% Understands the problems 50% 40% 10% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 32% 47% 21% Can get the economy going again. 42% 47% 11% Will be tough on China. 50% 33% 17% Will be tough on China. 33% 50% 17% Is willing to work with the other 45% 38% 17% Is willing to work with the other 50% 35% 15% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 37% 39% 24% Represents change. 46% 41% 13% Is in good physical and mental 44% 43% 14% Is in good physical and mental 38% 41% 21% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 43% 39% 18% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 45% 43% 12% Does what he promises to do. 47% 33% 21% Does what he promises to do. 44% 40% 16% Can bring Americans together. 45% 37% 18% Can bring Americans together. 48% 32% 20% Avoids unnecessary military 43% 36% 21% Avoids unnecessary military 45% 36% 19% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court / / / Will pick the best Supreme Court 44% 38% 19% Justices. Justices.

North Carolina (n = 951) JB DT DK Michigan (n = 967) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. 42% 46% 13% Is a strong leader. 48% 41% 11% Cares about people like me. 47% 38% 15% Cares about people like me. 53% 36% 11% Tells the truth. 42% 34% 24% Tells the truth. 48% 31% 21% Knows how to get things done. 40% 47% 13% Knows how to get things done. 47% 43% 10% Stands up for the interests of the 44% 45% 11% Stands up for the interests of the 53% 40% 8% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 45% 40% 15% Can work with foreign leaders. 52% 37% 11% Understands the problems 45% 41% 14% Understands the problems 53% 36% 11% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 38% 48% 14% Can get the economy going again. 45% 44% 11% Will be tough on China. 30% 51% 18% Will be tough on China. 35% 48% 17% Is willing to work with the other 48% 38% 15% Is willing to work with the other 52% 33% 15% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 45% 39% 16% Represents change. 50% 38% 12% Is in good physical and mental 36% 42% 23% Is in good physical and mental 41% 39% 21% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 41% 43% 16% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 50% 40% 10% Does what he promises to do. 38% 43% 19% Does what he promises to do. 45% 37% 18% Can bring Americans together. 44% 36% 19% Can bring Americans together. 50% 32% 18% Avoids unnecessary military 41% 38% 21% Avoids unnecessary military 48% 36% 17% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 41% 39% 20% Will pick the best Supreme Court 46% 37% 17% Justices. Justices.

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Florida (n = 1093) JB DT DK Wisconsin (n = 670) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. 47% 45% 8% Is a strong leader. 46% 45% 9% Cares about people like me. 52% 38% 10% Cares about people like me. 53% 37% 11% Tells the truth. 47% 35% 18% Tells the truth. 47% 32% 22% Knows how to get things done. 46% 46% 8% Knows how to get things done. 44% 46% 11% Stands up for the interests of the 49% 44% 8% Stands up for the interests of the 50% 43% 7% United States. United States. Can work with foreign leaders. 49% 41% 10% Can work with foreign leaders. 50% 39% 11% Understands the problems 50% 41% 9% Understands the problems 52% 38% 9% afflicting America. afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. 42% 47% 11% Can get the economy going again. 42% 48% 10% Will be tough on China. 33% 51% 17% Will be tough on China. 30% 51% 19% Is willing to work with the other 51% 37% 12% Is willing to work with the other 52% 33% 14% party where possible. party where possible. Represents change. 48% 40% 12% Represents change. 50% 38% 12% Is in good physical and mental 41% 41% 18% Is in good physical and mental 37% 40% 23% health. health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 46% 44% 9% Reflects America’s can-do spirit. 47% 42% 11% Does what he promises to do. 44% 41% 15% Does what he promises to do. 46% 38% 16% Can bring Americans together. 49% 38% 13% Can bring Americans together. 48% 31% 21% Avoids unnecessary military 46% 39% 15% Avoids unnecessary military 44% 34% 22% conflicts. conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court 45% 40% 15% Will pick the best Supreme Court 41% 35% 24% Justices. Justices.

*JB = Joe Biden *DT = Donald Trump *DK = Don’t Know

America’s Place in the World

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

America has a special purpose in this world.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 38% Strongly agree 42% Agree 31% Agree 34% Neither agree nor disagree 25% Neither agree nor disagree 17% Disagree 4% Disagree 3% Strongly disagree 1% Strongly disagree 1% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 2% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 41% Strongly agree 41% Agree 32% Agree 36% Neither agree nor disagree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 17% Disagree 4% Disagree 5% Strongly disagree 1% Strongly disagree 2% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 1% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 47% Strongly agree 37% Agree 31% Agree 34% Neither agree nor disagree 18% Neither agree nor disagree 21% Disagree 3% Disagree 4% Strongly disagree 1% Strongly disagree 2% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 1%

Key Policy Areas

Which of the following key policy areas is most likely to determine how you will vote in the November Presidential Election? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) The Economy 25% The Economy 31% Foreign Policy 2% Foreign Policy 2% Healthcare 20% Healthcare 20% Immigration 9% Immigration 7% Education 5% Education 3% Electoral Reform 1% Electoral Reform 2% The Environment 7% The Environment 6% Judicial Appointments 4% Judicial Appointments 1% Law & Order 10% Law & Order 9% Housing 2% Housing 1% Other 7% Other 8% Don’t know 8% Don’t know 8% North Carolina (n = 912) Michigan (n = 914) The Economy 29% The Economy 31% Foreign Policy 2% Foreign Policy 2% Healthcare 19% Healthcare 22% Immigration 5% Immigration 4% Education 4% Education 5% Electoral Reform 2% Electoral Reform 1% The Environment 7% The Environment 6% Judicial Appointments 3% Judicial Appointments 2% Law & Order 12% Law & Order 9% Housing 1% Housing 1% Other 6% Other 8% Don’t know 9% Don’t know 10% Florida (n = 1044) Wisconsin (n = 636) The Economy 31% The Economy 30% Foreign Policy 2% Foreign Policy 1% Healthcare 20% Healthcare 23% Immigration 8% Immigration 3% Education 4% Education 3% Electoral Reform 1% Electoral Reform 1% The Environment 6% The Environment 6% Judicial Appointments 2% Judicial Appointments 2% Law & Order 10% Law & Order 12% Housing 2% Housing 1% Other 7% Other 8% Don’t know 7% Don’t know 10%

Coronavirus Pandemic

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The coronavirus situation in the United States is coming under control.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 18% Strongly agree 10% Agree 20% Agree 19% Neither agree nor disagree 19% Neither agree nor disagree 22% Disagree 21% Disagree 22% Strongly disagree 20% Strongly disagree 26% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 2% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 10% Strongly agree 11% Agree 20% Agree 19% Neither agree nor disagree 23% Neither agree nor disagree 20% Disagree 23% Disagree 26% Strongly disagree 21% Strongly disagree 23% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 2% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 13% Strongly agree 11% Agree 23% Agree 16% Neither agree nor disagree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 21% Disagree 20% Disagree 27% Strongly disagree 21% Strongly disagree 23% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 2%

With respects to the timeline of the coronavirus pandemic, where do you feel the United States is at the moment? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) The worst is yet to come 34% The worst is yet to come 42% The worst is behind us 45% The worst is behind us 30% Don’t know 21% Don’t know 27%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) The worst is yet to come 41% The worst is yet to come 40% The worst is behind us 30% The worst is behind us 33% Don’t know 29% Don’t know 27% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) The worst is yet to come 39% The worst is yet to come 43% The worst is behind us 36% The worst is behind us 31% Don’t know 25% Don’t know 26%

Governor Approval Ratings

Thinking specifically about the situation in your state, to what extent do you approve or disapprove of your State Governor’s handling of the coronavirus crisis?

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly approve 11% Strongly approve 18% Approve 18% Approve 30% Neither approve nor disapprove 21% Neither approve nor disapprove 18% Disapprove 23% Disapprove 16% Strongly disapprove 24% Strongly disapprove 16% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 3%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly approve 21% Strongly approve 31% Approve 30% Approve 27% Neither approve nor disapprove 17% Neither approve nor disapprove 11% Disapprove 16% Disapprove 10% Strongly disapprove 12% Strongly disapprove 19% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 2%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly approve 18% Strongly approve 18% Approve 20% Approve 26% Neither approve nor disapprove 18% Neither approve nor disapprove 18% Disapprove 14% Disapprove 14% Strongly disapprove 27% Strongly disapprove 21% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 3%

Handling of Coronavirus

In your opinion, if Joe Biden had been President, do you think he would have handled the coronavirus pandemic better, worse, or with no difference? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Better 44% Better 43% Worse 28% Worse 27% No difference 15% No difference 16% Don’t know 13% Don’t know 13%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Better 40% Better 49% Worse 28% Worse 27% No difference 18% No difference 14% Don’t know 14% Don’t know 11%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Better 42% Better 48% Worse 31% Worse 28% No difference 13% No difference 12% Don’t know 13% Don’t know 12%

Law and Order

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

The crowds that gathered in Wisconsin following the shooting of Jacob Blake were primarily rioters and agitators rather than peaceful protestors.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 33% Strongly agree 28% Agree 19% Agree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 14% Neither agree nor disagree 19% Disagree 14% Disagree 10% Strongly disagree 11% Strongly disagree 11% Don’t know 9% Don’t know 10% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 27% Strongly agree 27% Agree 21% Agree 20% Neither agree nor disagree 19% Neither agree nor disagree 16% Disagree 12% Disagree 15% Strongly disagree 10% Strongly disagree 13% Don’t know 10% Don’t know 9% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 30% Strongly agree 37% Agree 21% Agree 25% Neither agree nor disagree 18% Neither agree nor disagree 14% Disagree 12% Disagree 11% Strongly disagree 13% Strongly disagree 9% Don’t know 7% Don’t know 5%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The destruction of property is violence.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 56% Strongly agree 55% Agree 24% Agree 25% Neither agree nor disagree 9% Neither agree nor disagree 11% Disagree 5% Disagree 4% Strongly disagree 4% Strongly disagree 3% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 2% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 52% Strongly agree 54% Agree 26% Agree 27% Neither agree nor disagree 12% Neither agree nor disagree 10% Disagree 4% Disagree 5% Strongly disagree 3% Strongly disagree 3% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 2% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 55% Strongly agree 65% Agree 26% Agree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 11% Neither agree nor disagree 7% Disagree 3% Disagree 3% Strongly disagree 4% Strongly disagree 2% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 1%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

The vast majority of police officers are good, but a few bad apples give them a bad reputation.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 45% Strongly agree 43% Agree 28% Agree 33% Neither agree nor disagree 13% Neither agree nor disagree 12% Disagree 7% Disagree 6% Strongly disagree 5% Strongly disagree 4% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 2% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 40% Strongly agree 45% Agree 30% Agree 29% Neither agree nor disagree 15% Neither agree nor disagree 13% Disagree 7% Disagree 7% Strongly disagree 6% Strongly disagree 4% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 2% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 43% Strongly agree 53% Agree 33% Agree 30% Neither agree nor disagree 12% Neither agree nor disagree 7% Disagree 7% Disagree 5% Strongly disagree 4% Strongly disagree 3% Don’t know 1% Don’t know 2%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

The police force in my state is institutionally racist.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 10% Strongly agree 8% Agree 18% Agree 13% Neither agree nor disagree 24% Neither agree nor disagree 25% Disagree 15% Disagree 21% Strongly disagree 26% Strongly disagree 26% Don’t know 6% Don’t know 7% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 9% Strongly agree 6% Agree 16% Agree 14% Neither agree nor disagree 22% Neither agree nor disagree 24% Disagree 23% Disagree 22% Strongly disagree 23% Strongly disagree 27% Don’t know 7% Don’t know 7% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 15% Strongly agree 8% Agree 17% Agree 14% Neither agree nor disagree 22% Neither agree nor disagree 16% Disagree 19% Disagree 21% Strongly disagree 23% Strongly disagree 36% Don’t know 4% Don’t know 6%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the calls to "defund the police"?

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 7% Strongly agree 7% Agree 9% Agree 12% Neither agree nor disagree 15% Neither agree nor disagree 16% Disagree 20% Disagree 18% Strongly disagree 45% Strongly disagree 44% Don’t know 3% Don’t know 4% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 10% Strongly agree 8% Agree 12% Agree 11% Neither agree nor disagree 17% Neither agree nor disagree 17% Disagree 19% Disagree 18% Strongly disagree 38% Strongly disagree 43% Don’t know 4% Don’t know 4% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 11% Strongly agree 6% Agree 14% Agree 10% Neither agree nor disagree 15% Neither agree nor disagree 11% Disagree 17% Disagree 20% Strongly disagree 40% Strongly disagree 50% Don’t know 2% Don’t know 3%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:

The riots that have occurred across the United States will end if Donald Trump loses the election in November.

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Strongly agree 10% Strongly agree 12% Agree 17% Agree 15% Neither agree nor disagree 17% Neither agree nor disagree 24% Disagree 22% Disagree 22% Strongly disagree 26% Strongly disagree 19% Don’t know 8% Don’t know 8% North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Strongly agree 11% Strongly agree 10% Agree 12% Agree 17% Neither agree nor disagree 23% Neither agree nor disagree 26% Disagree 22% Disagree 20% Strongly disagree 24% Strongly disagree 19% Don’t know 9% Don’t know 8% Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Strongly agree 14% Strongly agree 8% Agree 16% Agree 16% Neither agree nor disagree 25% Neither agree nor disagree 26% Disagree 16% Disagree 19% Strongly disagree 22% Strongly disagree 22% Don’t know 6% Don’t know 9%

To what extent, if at all, do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tony Evers response to the shooting of Jacob Blake and the events that followed the shooting? (Asked only to respondents in Wisconsin, n = 670)

Strongly approve 8% Approve 19% Neither approve nor disapprove 26% Disapprove 12% Strongly disapprove 25% Don’t know 10%

Thinking about the events that have taken place in Kenosha, WI, which of the following statements comes closest to your view? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 25% Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 20% unrest in Kenosha, WI. unrest in Kenosha, WI. Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 10% Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 12% for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 11% The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 14% in Kenosha, WI. in Kenosha, WI. The Black Lives Matter organization is 25% The Black Lives Matter organization is 23% most to blame for the civil unrest in most to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha WI. 14% Kenosha WI. 12% No one in particular is to blame for the civil No one in particular is to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. 15% unrest in Kenosha, WI. 18% Don’t know. Don’t know.

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 18% Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 26% unrest in Kenosha, WI. unrest in Kenosha, WI. Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 13% Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 12% for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 14% The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 12% in Kenosha, WI. in Kenosha, WI. The Black Lives Matter organization is 23% The Black Lives Matter organization is most 21% most to blame for the civil unrest in to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha WI. Kenosha WI. 11% No one in particular is to blame for the civil 11% No one in particular is to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. unrest in Kenosha, WI. 20% Don’t know. 18% Don’t know.

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 23% Donald Trump is most to blame for the civil 19% unrest in Kenosha, WI. unrest in Kenosha, WI. Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 14% Local Wisconsin politicians are most to blame 11% for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 11% The media is most to blame for the civil unrest 13% in Kenosha, WI. in Kenosha, WI. The Black Lives Matter organization is 23% The Black Lives Matter organization is 29% most to blame for the civil unrest in most to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha WI. Kenosha WI. 16% No one in particular is to blame for the civil 12% No one in particular is to blame for the civil unrest in Kenosha, WI. unrest in Kenosha, WI. 11% Don’t know. 17% Don’t know.

In your opinion, which political party would enact the best policies on policing and security in your state? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 830) Pennsylvania (n = 1053) The Democratic Party 42% The Democratic Party 41% The Republican Party 39% The Republican Party 39% Don’t know 19% Don’t know 20%

North Carolina (n = 951) Michigan (n = 967) The Democratic Party 38% The Democratic Party 46% The Republican Party 38% The Republican Party 36% Don’t know 24% Don’t know 18%

Florida (n = 1093) Wisconsin (n = 670) The Democratic Party 43% The Democratic Party 39% The Republican Party 40% The Republican Party 41% Don’t know 17% Don’t know 20%