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Conference Poster Production
65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida February 28 - March 3, 2011 Hurricane Earl:September 2, 2010 Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress S E S S Session 2 I The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review O N 2 The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Extremely Active but no U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Eric Blake and John L. Beven II ([email protected]) NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and 5 of which reached major hurricane intensity. These totals are well above the long-term normals of about 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Although the 2010 season was considerably busier than normal, no hurricanes struck the United States. This was the most active season on record in the Atlantic that did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and was also the second year in a row without a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. A persistent trough along the east coast of the United States steered many of the hurricanes out to sea, while ridging over the central United States kept any hurricanes over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico farther south over Central America and Mexico. The most significant U.S. impacts occurred with Tropical Storm Hermine, which brought hurricane-force wind gusts to south Texas along with extremely heavy rain, six fatalities, and about $240 million dollars of damage. Hurricane Earl was responsible for four deaths along the east coast of the United States due to very large swells, although the center of the hurricane stayed offshore. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Presentation
27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 24-28 April 2006, Monterey, CA 3A.6 HURRICANES IVAN, JEANNE, KARL (2004) AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS Ryan N. Maue*, Melinda S. Peng, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Rolf H. Langland Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 1. INTRODUCTION The initial-time SV sensitivity (largest shaded The Atlantic hurricane season of 2004 featured values in figures) indicates regions where several powerful, landfalling storms that caused perturbations to the initial state would have the largest considerable damage and loss of life in many impact on the 2-day forecast (regions where the countries. During September, three hurricanes, Ivan, forecast is most sensitive to changes in the initial Jeanne, and Karl, were linked together involving a analysis). The final SVs portray the amplitude and midlatitude trough. This study shows how one mid- distribution of the energy associated with the fastest latitude trough can impact three storms as revealed growing perturbations at the end of the forecast (here by forecast model dynamics using singular vector 48 hours). The sensitivity shown is the vertically (SV) sensitivity. The SV analysis identifies the integrated total energy of the SV perturbations influence of remote synoptic features on tropical summed over the first 3 leading SVs and weighted by cyclone evolution by finding the fastest-growing initial the singular vector amplification factors. perturbations localized about the tropical cyclone at the end of the optimization period. SV diagnostics have been applied mostly to midlatitude phenomena (Palmer et al. 1998). Only recently have singular vectors been applied to understanding tropical ensemble forecasting and analysis problems (e.g. -
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Karl 16 – 24 September 2004
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Karl 16 – 24 September 2004 Jack Beven National Hurricane Center 17 December 2004 Karl was a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that traveled across the open central North Atlantic. a. Synoptic History Karl formed from a strong tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 13 September. The system showed increasing shower activity on 14 September, and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates began the next day. The wave spawned a tropical depression around 0600 UTC 16 September about 340 n mi southwest of the southern Cape Verde islands. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression initially moved westward south of a subtropical ridge and strengthened into a tropical storm later that day. Karl turned northwestward on 17 September, then moved west-northwestward while becoming a hurricane the next day. The hurricane continued west- northwestward on 19 September, then turned northwestward on 20 September and north- northwestward on 21 September towards a weakness in the ridge. Maximum sustained winds reached an estimated 115 kt on 20 September and an estimated 125 kt on 21 September. Karl continued moving north-northwestward until 22 September when it turned northeastward in response to a deep-layer baroclinic trough developing north of the hurricane. This motion continued through 23 September. The intensity fluctuated during this time due to a concentric eyewall cycle, with maximum sustained winds decreasing to an estimated 90 kt on 22 September and increasing to an estimated 110 kt the next day. -
RA IV Hurricane Committee Thirty-Third Session
dr WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE THIRTYTHIRD SESSION GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS (8 to 12 March 2011) FINAL REPORT 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION At the kind invitation of the Government of the Cayman Islands, the thirtythird session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee was held in George Town, Grand Cayman from 8 to 12 March 2011. The opening ceremony commenced at 0830 hours on Tuesday, 8 March 2011. 1.1 Opening of the session 1.1.1 Mr Fred Sambula, Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, welcomed the participants to the session. He urged that in the face of the annual recurrent threats from tropical cyclones that the Committee review the technical & operational plans with an aim at further refining the Early Warning System to enhance its service delivery to the nations. 1.1.2 Mr Arthur Rolle, President of Regional Association IV (RA IV) opened his remarks by informing the Committee members of the national hazards in RA IV in 2010. He mentioned that the nation of Haiti suffered severe damage from the earthquake in January. He thanked the Governments of France, Canada and the United States for their support to the Government of Haiti in providing meteorological equipment and human resource personnel. He also thanked the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and others for their support to Haiti. The President spoke on the changes that were made to the hurricane warning systems at the 32 nd session of the Hurricane Committee in Bermuda. He mentioned that the changes may have resulted in the reduced loss of lives in countries impacted by tropical cyclones. -
Summary of 2010 Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Forecast
SUMMARY OF 2010 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHOR’S SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS The 2010 hurricane season had activity at well above-average levels. Our seasonal predictions were quite successful. The United States was very fortunate to have not experienced any landfalling hurricanes this year. By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2 This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this verification. Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Email: [email protected] As of 10 November 2010* *Climatologically, about two percent of Net Tropical Cyclone activity occurs after this date 1 Research Scientist 2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science 1 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2010 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology 9 Dec 2009 Update Update Update Observed (in parentheses) 7 April 2010 2 June 2010 4 Aug 2010 2010 Total Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15 18 18 19 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 51-75 75 90 90 88.25 Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8 10 10 12 Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35 40 40 37.50 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-5 4 5 5 5 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0) 6-12 10 13 13 11 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.2) 100-162 150 185 185 163 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160 195 195 195 Note: Any storms forming after November 10 will be discussed with the December forecast for 2011 Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. -
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories. -
& ~ Hurricane Season Review ~
& ~ Hurricane Season Review ~ St. Maarten experienced drought conditions in 2016 with no severe weather events. All Photos compliments Paul G. Ellinger Meteorological Department St. Maarten Airport Rd. # 114, Simpson Bay (721) 545-2024 or (721) 545-4226 www.meteosxm.com MDS Climatological Summary 2016 The information contained in this Climatological Summary must not be copied in part or any form, or communicated for the use of any other party without the expressed written permission of the Meteorological Department St. Maarten. All data and observations were recorded at the Princess Juliana International Airport. This document is published by the Meteorological Department St. Maarten, and a digital copy is available on our website. Prepared by: Sheryl Etienne-LeBlanc Published by: Meteorological Department St. Maarten Airport Road #114, Simpson Bay St. Maarten, Dutch Caribbean Telephone: (721) 545-2024 or (721) 545-4226 Fax: (721) 545-2998 Website: www.meteosxm.com E-mail: [email protected] www.facebook.com/sxmweather www.twitter.com/@sxmweather MDS © March 2017 Page 2 of 28 MDS Climatological Summary 2016 Table of Contents Introduction.............................................................................................................. 4 Island Climatology……............................................................................................. 5 About Us……………………………………………………………………………..……….……………… 6 2016 Hurricane Season Local Effects..................................................................................................... -
Summary of 2004 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Monthly Forecasts
SUMMARY OF 2004 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHOR'S SEASONAL AND MONTHLY FORECASTS (A very active season with four hurricanes making landfall in the southeastern United States.) By William M. Gray1 and Philip J. Klotzbach2 with special assistance from William Thorson3 [This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/ ] - also, Brad Bohlander and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University Media Representatives, (970-491-6432) are available to answer various questions about this forecast. Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 email: [email protected] 19 November 2004 "METEOROLOGISTS ARE KNOWN TO BE ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT AT RECONSTRUCTION AND EXPLANATION OF PAST WEATHER EVENTS.... BUT BE SURE NOT TO BRING UP QUESTIONS ABOUT TOMORROW'S RAINFALL" ANONYMOUS Acknowledgment We are grateful to AIG - Lexington Insurance Company (a member of the American International Group) for providing partial support for the research necessary to make these forecasts. We thank the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College for their assistance in developing the Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage (available online at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane). The National Science Foundation has contributed to the background research necessary to make these forecasts. DEFINITIONS ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2004 Update Update Update Update Update Observed