STUDIES in RUSSIAN and EAST EUROPEAN HISTORY and SOCIETY General Editors: R
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STUDIES IN RUSSIAN AND EAST EUROPEAN HISTORY AND SOCIETY General Editors: R. W. Davies, Emeritus Professor of Soviet Economic Studies, and EA. Rees, Senior Lecturer in Soviet History, both at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies, The University of Birmingham Ukraine under Kuchma Political Reform, Economic Transformation and Security Policy in Independent Ukraine Taras Kuzio Research Fellow Centre for Russian and East European Studies The University o f Birmingham Бібліотека КНТЕУ 515848 ноз.еі* in association with the CENTRE FOR RUSSIAN AND EAST EUROPEAN STUDIES THE UNIVERSITY IOF БШМЇІ'ФЯ ЇДМ '!--------- r ~ » Київськии національний торговельно-економічний університет БІБЛІОТЕКА All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. M J h F'rst published 1997 by W MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 0-333-65414-5 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9876 54321 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 Printed in Great Britain by The Ipswich Book Company, Suffolk A A Published in the United States of America by f y * ST. MARTIN’S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 0-312-17625-2 Contents List of Tables IX List of Maps xi Acknowledgements xiii Transliteration Note XV Introduction 1 1 A New Ukrainian Parliament 6 On the Eve of Elections 6 Independent Ukraine under Kravchuk 6 The Multi-Party System 8 The Election Campaign 11 Parliamentary Election Law 11 Criticism of the Election Law 13 New Election Law 15 Electoral Blocs 16 Regional Divisions 22 The Aftermath 25 Issues 25 The Elections 26 By-elections 28 Violations 31 Conclusions 35 2 Issues and Voters in the 1994 Presidential Elections 39 Myths and Legends of the 1994 Presidential Elections 40 Issues 43 Statehood 43 Political Reform 45 The Economic Crisis and Reform 47 Organised Crime and Corruption 49 National Symbols and Language 50 Foreign and Defence Policy 51 Voters 55 Political Parties 55 Civic and Social Groups 59 v vi Contents Religion 59 The Armed Forces and Civil-Military Relations 60 Industrialists 61 Conclusion 64 3 The Crimea Returns to Ukraine 67 Elections in the Crimea 68 Presidential Elections 68 Ukrainian Reactions to the Presidential Elections 73 President Meshkov 74 Parliamentary Elections 77 Opinion Polls 79 Decline of the Russian Bloc 79 New Constitution 81 The ‘Separatist’ Constitution 81 The New Crimean Constitution 82 Ukrainian Reactions 83 An Honourable Solution is Found 85 Ukrainian Elections 86 Parliamentary Elections 86 Presidential Elections 87 Conclusions 89 4 Political Reform and an End to the Soviet System 90 Compromise and the Search for New Allies 91 Victory by a Small Margin 91 From Romanticism to Pragmatism 91 Compromises 93 A New Administration 95 Political Reform 99 Executive Power 99 The Threat of a Referendum 103 The Constitutional Agreement 105 Conflicting Interpretations 107 A New Constitution 110 The Soviet Ukrainian Constitution 110 The Kravchuk Constitutions 111 The Kuchma Constitution 116 Comparisons of Draft Constitutions 126 How Should the Constitution be Adopted? 131 Conclusions 134 Contents vii 5 Economic Transformation and Structural Change 137 Economic and Social Reform 138 A New Programme 138 Reform Speeded Up 139 The Rise of Yevhen Marchuk 142 Correction of Economic Reform 144 Fiscal and Monetary Reform 149 The Black Economy 152 Privatisation 153 Preconditions and Contradictions 153 The Pace of Privatisation 155 Parliament Suspends Privatisation 157 Privatisation Takes Off 159 Privatisation Fails to Meet Expectations 163 Land Privatisation 164 Western Assistance 168 Conclusions 173 6 New Foreign and Defence Policies 179 Foreign Policy 179 Priorities and Security Fears 179 New Foreign Policy Agenda 183 Ukraine and the Expansion of NATO 188 Ukrainian-Russian Relations: Diverging Interests 197 The Chechnya Crisis and Ukraine 203 Ukraine and the Russian Elections 206 Ukrainian-Russian Economic Relations 210 Military Policy 213 The Security Forces 213 The Black Sea Fleet 214 Ukrainian-Russian Military Co-operation 218 Nuclear Weapons 219 Conclusions 222 7 Conclusions 227 Notes 230 Bibliography of Selected Publications 267 Index 276 List of Tables 1.1 Pre-election Poll of Public Confidence 7 1.2 Pre-election Poll of Voter Disillusionment 7 1.3 Election Blocs 16 1.4 Democratic Coalition ‘Ukraine’ Election Bloc 17 1.5 The Evolution of Election Blocs 19 1.6 Regional Election Blocs 23 1.7 Pre-Election Poll of Voter Confidence 25 1.8 Negative Views within Ukrainian Society 25 1.9 Candidates Registered According to Party Affiliation 29 1.10 Political Profile of Candidates in the 7 April 1996 Repeat Elections 31 1.11 Members of Political Parties in the Ukrainian Parliament (as of 1 December 1994) 33 1.12 The Ukrainian Parliament According to Membership of Factions 36 1.13 Division of Parliament According to Political Orientation and Affiliation to Political Parties 37 3.1 Round 1 of the Presidential Elections in the Crimea (16 January 1994) 72 3.2 Round 2 of the Presidential Elections in the Crimea (30 January 1994) 72 3.3 Election Opinion Poll 79 3.4 Poll of Public Confidence in Crimean Institutions 80 3.5 Crimean Votes for Ukrainian Presidential Candidates (Round 1) 88 3.6 Crimean Votes for Ukrainian Presidential Candidates (Round 2) 88 4.1 Voting by Parliamentary Faction for the Constitutional Agreement 106 4.2 Opposition to the Constitutional Agreement by Parliamentary Faction 106 4.3 Vote by Faction for the Constitution (28 June 1996) 126 4.4 The Cabinet of Ministers According to the Draft Constitutions 129 4.5 Attitude of Political Groups to the Constitutional Process 133 ix X List of Tables 4.6 Members of Parliament Who Refused to Take the Ukrainian Oath of Loyalty (as Demanded by the Ukrainian Constitution) 135 5.1 Privatisation in Ukraine (as of 1994) 156 5.2 Land Auctions (1994) 166 5.3 Land Privatisation (1992-5) 166 5.4 Privatisation of the Agro-Industrial Sector 166 5.5 Privatisation in Ukraine (1992-4) 175 5.6 Presidential Programme of Privatisation of Medium to Large Enterprises (1995) 176 5.7 Presidential Programme of Privatisation of Small Units (1995) 177 5.8 Privatisation of Land (1995) 178 6.1 Opinion Poll of Ukrainian Attitudes to the CIS 191 6.2 Evolution of Russian Security Policy to Ukraine and the CIS 202 6.3 Attitude of Russian Political Groups to the CIS 223 6.4 Russian Foreign and Defence Policies and Ukrainian Objections 225 List of Maps 1. Ukraine 2. The variation of the vote for independence of Ukraine (December 1991). (Produced by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the National University of the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.) 3. The variation of Kravchuk’s vote across the different regions (December 1991). (Produced by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the National University of the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.) 4. The variation of Kravchuk’s vote across the different regions (July 1994). (Produced by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the National University of the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.) 5. The share of the Ukrainian-speaking population of Ukraine. (Produced by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the National University of the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.) Acknowledgements The author is grateful to the Michael and Daria Kowalsky Endowment Fund, administered by the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies of Edmonton, Alberta, for an award in 1993 which allowed him to undertake the initial research for this book. The author is also grateful to the editors of The Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics,1 Jane’s Intelligence Review2 and Central Asian Survey3 for permission to publish materials which appeared in earlier and shorter versions in their publications. I would like gratefully to acknowledge the Leverhulme Trust for supporting the research project on the Transition from Soviet to Independent Ukraine’ from April 1995, at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies, The University of Birmingham, under its director, Professor Julian Cooper. 1. T. Kuzio, ‘The 1994 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine’, The Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, vol. 11, no. 4 (December 1995), pp. 335-61. 2. T. Kuzio, ‘Ukraine and the Expansion of NATO’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, vol. 7, no. 9 (September 1995), 389-91. 3. T. Kuzio, ‘The Chechen Crisis and the “Near Abroad’”, Central Asian Survey, vol. 14, no. 4 (1995), pp. 553-72 published by Carfax Publishing Company, PO Box 25, Abingdon, Oxfordshire 0X14 3UE. xiii Transliteration Note L’viv (Lvov) Uzhorod (Uzgorod) Rivne (Rovno) Kyiv (Kiev) Luts’k Zhitomir Chernihiv (Chernigov) Cherkasy (Cherkassy) Ivano-Frankivsk (Ivano-Frankovsk) Khmel’nyts’ky Vinnytsya Odesa (Odessa) Mykolayiv (Nikolaiv) Kherson Poltava Kirovohrad (Kirovograd) Krivyi Rih (Krivyi Rog) Zaporizhzhya (Zaporozhzhia) Dnipropetrovs’k (Dnepropetrovsk) Donets’k (Donetsk) Kharkiv (Kharkov) Chernivtsi (Chernovtsy) Sumy Luhans’k (Lugansk) Simferopol Sevastopol xv Chernihiv Zhytomyr Kharkhiv Khmel'nyts'kyi Ternopil' Poltava Cherkasy f% y ivano- * N Vinnytsia Uzhhorod NFrankivs’k Luhans'k Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovs'k Chernivtsi Donets'k Zaporizhzhis* Mykolaiv Qdesa Kherson Simferopoi' 1.