DARTFORD and EBBSFLEET: RETAIL and LEISURE STUDY
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DARTFORD & EBBSFLEET: RETAIL AND LEISURE STUDY PART 1 STUDY for: DARTFORD BOROUGH COUNCIL & EBBSFLEET DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION January 2021 This document has been prepared and checked in accordance with the Lambert Smith Hampton Quality Assurance procedures and authorised for release. If not signed off, the document should be treated as a draft and as being private and confidential, and not for wider distribution without the written permission of Lambert Smith Hampton. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. For and on behalf of Lambert Smith Hampton CONTENTS: PART 1 STUDY page: 1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………… 1 2. DARTFORD: PLANNING & REGENERATION CONTEXT……………………. 4 3. EBBSFLEET: PLANNING & REGENERATION CONTEXT………………....... 16 4. RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS ……………………………………….. 26 5. DARTFORD TOWN CENTRE: HEALTHCHECK ………………………………. 38 6. DARTFORD TOWN CENTRE: STREET SURVEY HEADLINES …………….. 55 7. DISTRICT CENTRES: HEALTHCHECK ……………………………………....... 70 8. BLUEWATER SHOPPING CENTRE …………………………………………….. 81 9. CATCHMENT, COMPETITION & MARKET SHARES …………………………. 93 10. RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ……………………………………………... 102 11. LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT ……………………………………………….. 120 CONTENTS: PART 2 STUDY page: 1 INTRODUCTION & CONTEXT……………………………………………………. 2 RETAIL CAPACITY: SUMMARY…………………………………………………. 5 LEISURE NEEDS: SUMMARY……………………………………………………. 8 DARTFORD TOWN CENTRE…………………………………………………….. 14 DISTRICT CENTRES………………………………………………………………. 15 EBBSFLEET…………………………………………………………………………. 17 BLUEWATER SHOPPING CENTRE……………………………………………… 20 POLICY REVIEW & RECOMMENDATIONS…………………………………….. Hierarchy of Centres……………………………………….. 21 Town Centre Boundaries & Primary Shopping Area….… 22 Impact Threshold…………………………………………… 23 APPENDICES Appendix A: Appendix A1: Catchment/Study Area Appendix A2: ‘Baseline’ Population and Expenditure Growth Appendix A3: Convenience Goods - Market Share Analysis (incl SFT) Appendix A4: Comparison Goods - Market Share Analysis (incl SFT) Appendix A5: Convenience Goods Turnover (excl SFT) Appendix A6: Comparison Goods Turnover (excl SFT) Appendix A7: ‘Baseline’ Scenario 1 - Convenience Capacity (excl commitments) Appendix A8: ‘Baseline’ Scenario 1 - Comparison Capacity (excl commitments) Appendix A9: ‘Baseline’ Scenario 2 - Capacity Assessment (excl commitments) Appendix A10: Retail Floorspace Commitments Appendix A11: ‘Baseline’ Scenario 1 – Capacity Assessment (incl all commitments) Appendix A12: ‘Higher Population Growth’ Capacity Assessment (incl all commitments) Appendix A13: Leisure Expenditure Forecasts Appendix B: Household Telephone Interview Survey – Method Statement and Tabulations Appendix 1: Household Telephone Interview Survey – Method and Weighted II Appendix C: Dartford Town Centre: Street Interview Survey – Method Statement and Tabulations Appendix D: Dartford Town Centre: Pedestrian Footfall Survey – Method Statement and Results II' 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Lambert Smith Hampton (LSH) was commissioned jointly by Dartford Borough Council (‘DBC’) and Ebbsfleet Development Corporation (‘EDC’) to prepare an updated Retail and Leisure Study (‘RLS’). This two-part study provides the robust evidence base needed to inform the retail and leisure planning policies that form part of DBC’s Local Plan Review. For EDC it will help to inform the planning and delivery of new sustainable centres as part of the wider regeneration of Ebbsfleet Garden City. The key findings of this study supersede previous evidence-based studies. 1.2 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging development plan polices and other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). Both the Framework and PPG place significant weight on the development of positive plan-led visions and evidence-based strategies to help ensure the long-term vitality and viability of town centres. 1.3 By way of background, the Borough of Dartford is situated at the heart of the Thames Estuary in the north-west corner of Kent. The Borough benefits from an excellent strategic road and rail network, providing it with good access to Greater and Central London, Kent and the rest of the south east and the channel ports. In broad terms the Borough is characterised by two distinct geographic areas. To the north of the A2 it is mainly urban in character and comprises Dartford Town Centre, Stone, Swanscombe, Greenhithe, the Ebbsfleet area, and Bluewater regional shopping centre. To the south lies Metropolitan Green Belt, consisting of open countryside with 12 villages and a number of smaller hamlets. The villages mainly function as commuter settlements, with limited or no facilities. Longfield however has a relatively good choice of shops, services and other community facilities. 1.4 The key inter-related aims and objectives of this study are to: • analyse the factors (technological, social and economic etc.) that will impact on the Borough’s town centres over the period to 2036 and the key local planning policy and development opportunities that can help support sustainable retail and leisure provision; • assess the demand for retail and leisure space in the Borough, taking appropriate account of the wider regional draw of Bluewater, and provide an overview of the need for the main town centre uses in accordance with the NPPF; • audit the viability and vitality, market share, and effectiveness of planning policy and strategy, for Dartford town centre, Bluewater, and the six District Centres, to inform future strategy; • evaluate the capability of the Borough’s evolving network of centres to function effectively and to meet future local needs; • assess and test the relationship between a range of local development growth scenarios and future retail and leisure provision; • formulate a positive development approach for Dartford Town Centre as a part of wider town centre strategy, including investigating the prospects, development options and strategy for its existing identified sites and purpose-built shopping locations; and • consider an appropriate and sustainable role for Bluewater in the future which would not result in significant impact on strategies for the regeneration of neighbouring town centres, bearing in mind its location in an area for growth and regeneration and its regional draw as a purpose-built regional centre. 1.5 This study is informed by desktop research, supplemented by new market research and data- gathering, including: 1 II' • A telephone interview survey of some 1,000 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (NEMS) across the Borough and wider geographic area in October/November 2019. This updates the previous household survey (also conducted by NEMS) in 2007 and provides robust evidence on current shopping patterns, expenditure flows and market shares within the defined study area (Appendix B). • A street interview survey conducted in Dartford Town Centre by NEMS in January/February 2020. This involved face-to-face interviews with over 500 people on different days of the week at different locations across the Town Centre (Appendix C). • A pedestrian footfall survey also conducted by NEMS at the same time as the street interview survey (Appendix D). 1.6 The study has also been informed, where feasible, by consultation and engagement with relevant key stakeholders, including neighbouring and wider local planning authorities (LPAs) to Dartford as part of the ‘Duty to Co-operate’ (‘DTC’). This incorporated written engagement with authorities over retail developments in their area, and a progress briefing (and question and answer) session for the authorities hosted by Dartford officers. This was programmed to enable formal representations to be made by Councils in their response to the Dartford Local Plan ‘preferred options’ public consultation. This consultation and engagement has provided a more informed understanding of the key issues, challenges and opportunities facing the Borough and its main centres. It has also helped to guide and shape the most robust and appropriate commercial, economic and sustainable retail and leisure strategy in response to the significant forces impacting on town centres both locally and nationally. This includes the growth of online shopping and the emerging impacts of the coronavirus pandemic (‘COVID19’) and “lockdown” which occurred during the preparation of this study. 1.7 It should be noted that at the time of preparing this study the Government issued a further series of reforms to the planning system in July 2020 related to Permitted Development Rights (PDR)1 and the Use Classes Order (UCO)2. This was followed by the consultation White Paper ‘Planning for the Future’ in August 2020, which sets out the Government’s proposed “radical reform” of the planning system. Although it is too early to comment on the potential implications of the White Paper on plan- making and development management at the local level, the amendments to the UCO are relevant to this study, and specifically the new Use Class E. We summarise the new UCO in more detail in Section 2 of this study. 1.8 For ease of reference this Part 1 study is structured as follows: • Sections 2 and 3: reviews the current/emerging planning policies and regeneration context relevant to DBC and EDC, along with national planning policy, guidance and other material considerations relevant to the preparation of this study. • Section 4: highlights some of the key trends that are driving the dynamic changes in the retail sector and town centres at the national and