www.africa-confidential.com 27 September 2002 Vol 43 No 19 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 2 CÔTE D’IVOIRE Corruption club President Mwanawasa may be the The nightmare scenario victim of his own anti-corruption An army rebellion may send the once-prosperous country down the drive if the Supreme Court finds same road as its unstable neighbours his election victory was rigged. He Côte d’Ivoire is in danger of fragmenting on ethnic lines as efforts to put down an army mutiny turn into is struggling to control a party split between politicians loyal to his an all-out assault on immigrants and on opponents of President Laurent Gbagbo. There had been predecessor, Frederick Chiluba, rumblings for months among dissident soldiers recruited into the army by former military leader General and backers of his ‘New Deal’. Robert Gueï (AC Vol 43 No 10). He was killed during the mutiny by troops loyal to Gbagbo. The mutiny broke out in the early hours of 19 September while Gbagbo was in Rome. The mutineers RWANDA 3killed Interior Minister Emile Boga Doudou and attacked the home of Defence Minister Moïse Lida Kouassi. Gueï’s body was found dumped in a ditch. The government claimed he was shot dead as he Leaving the quagmire was heading for the television station to proclaim a coup, though he was dressed in a rather unpresidential tee-shirt and died from a single shot to the head. His wife Rose was also shot dead and the body of his Rwanda is pulling its troops out of aide-de-camp, Captain Fabien Coulibaly, was found riddled with bullets. Congo-Kinshasa, but this may only make matters worse. Back home, The villa of opposition leader Alassane Dramane Ouattara (‘ADO’) was torched. He took refuge first President Kagame’s opponents with his neighbour the German Ambassador, then in the large and well secured French Embassy, from want democracy and his South where he accused the government of trying to kill him, too. Former President Henri Konan Bédié holed African allies want business up with the Canadian envoy. contracts but Western donors are The rebellion involved two groups of soldiers, the Zinzin and Bahéfoué, some recruited under normal running out of sympathy. conscription by the Defence Ministry, others after the July 2000 rebellion, to boost the numbers of Gueï- loyalists. The government had been threatening to sack them since Gbagbo came to power in October CENTRAL AFRICAN 2000 (AC Vol 43 No 3). Numbering 789, Africa Confidential understands, they were hired and trained REPUBLIC 5 by Lieutenant Boka Yapi, once head of Gueï’s presidential guard. The judiciary is seeking him to answer charges stemming from his Brigades Rouges firing on demonstrators who were protesting at Gueï’s Our friends in the heavy-handed attempts to steal the 2000 presidential election. north The Ouagadougou connection Prime Minister Martin Ziguélé’s depiction of a slowly recovering There had been signs of trouble for some time. The dissident soldiers staged a strike in the northern town post-conflict economy promising of Korhogo last year and earlier this year the government announced a plan to keep them in the army for radical reform and a crackdown on ten months, then organise a test to see who was qualified to stay and demobilise the rest. A project to send graft is at odds with the land of them to Bouaké for training backfired. When the troops assumed they were being removed from Abidjan plot, counterplot and rumour to be discreetly demobbed, they threatened rebellion. revealed in a bizarre trial of coup plotters in Bangui. The government accused Burkina Faso, which harbours army deserters led by Staff Sergeant Ibrahim Coulibaly, aka ‘IB’, of arming the rebels. IB was a leader of the 1999 coup but fell out with Gueï and was accused of being too close to Ouattara. His colleague Corporal Oumar Diarrassouba, known as SWAZILAND 6 ‘Zaga-Zaga’, has been sighted in Bouaké. There were reports of English-speaking Liberian or Sierra Leonean mercenaries fighting with the rebels. The tone of the government accusations left President King and pawns Blaise Compaoré, a consummate political survivor, looking like the injured party. A new constitution may herald the On 1 August, the Secretary General of Gueï’s Union pour la Paix et la Démocratie en Côte d’Ivoire, first hints of change for one of Balla Keïta, was found murdered in Ouagadougou, where he was exiled. Burkina’s Chief Justice, Africa’s most traditional states, Abdoulaye Barry, said investigators thought it an Ivorian political killing, despite the killer’s efforts to where parliament is already up in arms about King Mswati’s new make it seem that a mistress had stabbed him. Keïta was a prominent northerner and leader of an executive jet. organisation of Dozos, influential traditional hunters. The Ivorian Military Attaché in Ouagadougou, Colonel Barnabé Kanon Depeux, returned home soon after the killing and an Ivorian newspaper published a letter from him to the Defence Minister about Ivorian security agents in Burkina. The armed POINTERS 8 forces chief, Col. Mathias Doué, shown on television swearing an oath of loyalty on the eve of July’s local elections, has been very quiet throughout the rebellion. He is a Guéré from the west and not entirely Africa/Iraq, Kenya, trusted by Gbagbo, who prefers Col. Denis Bombet, head of the land forces – though much of the government’s counterattack this month was by gendarmes, seen as more reliably loyal. Libya & World Bank Pro-Ouattara and pro-Gueï soldiers appear to have formed an alliance, at least for now, and the rebels Uranium trail;KANU at war; seized control of Bouaké and Korhogo, whose town halls are both controlled by ADO’s Rassemblement retirement tent; and joined-up aid. des Républicains (RDR). France, which already has 600 troops in Côte d’Ivoire, sent 200 more on 22 September to protect its 27 September 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 19

dominant ethnic group in the west, the Bété. The Yacouba are related MALI BURKINA to the Liberian Gio across the border. Liberian leader Charles FASO Taylor, highly skilled at profiting from instability, can hope to see some pressure on his regime lifted as international attention focuses on Odienné Ferkessédougou Iraq and the regional focus moves next door. Korhogo Another beneficiary may be Ghana: demand for its cocoa will rise D i B GUINEA o u la l c a k significantly. Indonesia overtook Ghana last season as the world’s V o lt a second cocoa exporter, though Ghana’s production fell partly because of smuggling into Côte d’Ivoire, where the price is better. Côte Katiola Séguéla Bondoukou d’Ivoire exported 1.225 million tonnes in 2001/2002, while Indonesia u b a c o CÔTE D’IVOIRE exported 460,000 tn. and Ghana, 340,000. Ya Man Bouaké The rebellion came as Côte d’Ivoire was looking a little more stable. é o m Bouaflé o Four RDR ministers joined the government on 5 August, though the Daloa K GHANA B party boycotted parliamentary elections and has no seats. The economy é t é YAMOUSSOUKRO B was recovering, helped by high world cocoa prices. After three years a n d Adzopé a Gagnoa m of recession, the government was aiming for economic growth of 3 per a S a s cent in 2002 and 4.5 per cent in 2003. The country was about to qualify LIBERIA sa a o u l é n B d r for important debt relief under the International Monetary Fund and a Abidjan

Grand- World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative, just as it Sassandra Bassam was in 1999, when Gueï seized power. An IMF mission had just left, and the value of Ivorian debt on the secondary market had been rising GULF OF GUINEA with hopes of a HIPC deal, as an agreement on restructuring the Brady 200 kilometres Bond commercial debt was expected to follow. 100 miles All this is now in doubt, with the prospect of the country fracturing citizens and established a base inland at Yamoussoukro airport ready along ethnic lines, pitting the Baoulé of the centre and south against the to evacuate Western nationals from Bouaké; on 24 September, the Bété of the west and the Dioula of the north. The alliance between pro- United States ordered in 200 Special Forces. France has said it will Gueï and pro-Ouattara troops is unlikely to last and there are long- not intervene militarily, but with an end to cohabitation between a standing tensions over land rights in the western cocoa-growing areas Gaullist president and a Socialist parliament, some observers are between local Bété and Baoulé, Dioula and Burkinabè incomers. wondering if the former colonial power might be tempted to return to Unless the government can reassert its authority quickly, it could find its old ways should the situation deteriorate further. itself controlling little more than Abidjan and the surrounding area, Relative calm returned quickly to Abidjan, though the city is full of like past governments in Liberia and Sierra Leone. roadblocks, with a night-time curfew. Gendarmes burned immigrants’ homes in Abidjan’s Agban shanty-town, claiming they were seeking ZAMBIA rebels. Foreign radio broadcasts have been jammed. Gabon’s President and Morocco’s King Mohammed VI tried to organise a regional summit in Marrakesh for 26 September but with little hope that Gbagbo would risk leaving the country again, Corruption club this was replaced by plans for a summit of the Economic Community Mwanawasa’s anti-corruption claims are in doubt of West African States. as evidence of election-rigging emerges The Paris of West Africa ‘I will gladly step down if the court rules that I was elected fraudulently,’ When West Africa’s wars were confined to poverty-stricken countries announced President on 19 September. Anderson such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire was known as the Mazoka, the runner-up in last December’s presidential election, had ‘Paris of West Africa’, a haven of air-conditioned French restaurants, just shown the Supreme Court documents which, he said, demonstrated high-rise office blocks and functioning infrastructure. Liberia’s civil how the Treasury had illicitly financed Mwanawasa’s campaign. war never spread eastward as it did westward. From Independence till Mazoka and other opposition figures have lined up some 200 witnesses 1993, Côte d’Ivoire was ruled by Félix Houphouët-Boigny, whose to testify that the poll was rigged. Ex-President Frederick Chiluba one-party state had close links to France and who only reluctantly said he, too, would give evidence of how he had fixed the polls in allowed other parties shortly before his death in 1993. He was favour of Mwanawasa and the seven Supreme Court judges have ruled succeeded by the weak and venal Konan Bédié, despite the claims of that Chiluba would be immune from prosecution for offences revealed the then Prime Minister, Ouattara, to the presidency. But the corruption by his testimony. Things look bad for Mwanawasa. of Bédié’s regime proved unsustainable and Gueï toppled him on The first witness was the chief election observer from the European Christmas Eve 1999. Taking power after an election from which all Union, Michael Meadowcroft, who claimed that the results were serious opponents were excluded, Gbagbo proved even more rabid neither accurate nor representative of the people’s will. The opposition than Bédié in his hostility to immigrants, welcomed under Houphouët- says it will prove that a battalion of soldiers on a peacekeeping mission Boigny to develop the country, and his hostility to northerners such as in Sierra Leone voted when the law prohibited proxy and postal votes. ADO. Relations with Burkina became chilly. The Court will also see the Zamtrop bank account, controlled by the Western Côte d’Ivoire was already torn by clashes between local National Intelligence Agency and used to buy more than 150 vehicles people and migrant Burkinabè farmers and it could splinter further. for Mwanawasa’s campaign. The petitioners have a strong case which Gueï was a Yacouba from the far west, while Gbagbo is from the could force fresh elections.

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Zambia’s founding President, , advises parted political ways with Chiluba and formed his own party, the Mwanawasa to exploit the popularity of his anti-corruption drive by Zambia Republican Party. The police said they were looking for drugs; calling fresh elections now. Mwanawasa says he will await the they confiscated bank statements and documents. Mwila’s friends said Supreme Court’s ruling. If evidence before the Court indicates that his they were really looking for documents about money allegedly given to party abused national resources for political purposes, electors will him by Chiluba to form a new anti-MMD party. Three houses belonging think that he was himself associated with Chiluba’s corrupt network. to Chiluba’s girlfriend, Regina Mwanza, were later searched for drugs, For now, Mwanawasa is struggling to control the ruling Movement stolen vehicles and official documents. Searches involving former for Multi-party Democracy (MMD), which put him in power and is Information Minister Vernon Mwaanga and a Chiluba protégé, Mike now split between Chiluba-loyalists and backers of Mwanawasa’s Zulu, led to the confiscation of vehicles, licensed guns, pornographic ‘new deal’. The President has forced out some seasoned Chilubaist videotapes, plus letters and documents. None of those searched has politicians such as MMD National Secretary Vernon Mwaanga. been formally arrested or charged. Insiders say he will be replaced by Mwanawasa’s old friend Akashambatwa Mbikusita-Lewanika, a founder member of the Chungu in trouble MMD and its first National Secretary, who quit in 1993 to form his The main target is Xavier Chungu, formerly Director General of the own party and who was humiliated by President Chiluba in the 1996 Zambia Intelligence and Security Services, who is claimed to have presidential election. stolen millions of dollars of state funds and was arrested on lesser A few weeks ago, Mbikusita-Lewanika disbanded his Agenda for charges of stealing six government vehicles (AC Vol 43 No 14). Zambia party and, like many other disgruntled opposition politicians, Mwanawasa’s security advisors were angry when a magistrate granted jumped on to the Mwanawasa bandwagon. Most leaders of the once him bail of 20 million kwacha (US$4,440). On 4 September, Chungu popular Forum for Democracy and Development have also rejoined took off for Mansa, a tiny Zambian town on the border with Congo- the MMD, which has done well; it won four recent parliamentary by- Kinshasa, where he was arrested for stealing a motorcycle. Next day elections and now holds 80 seats against 78 for all the other parties. it was alleged that he had gone to Mansa to escape from Zambia. Yet many Chiluba-loyalists remain on the MMD’s National Executive James Graham, the detained South African pilot of a Congolese- Committee. One of them, Newstead Zimba, accepted a ministerial registered nine-seater chartered aircraft, said he had been hired to take job and switched to Mwanawasa’s camp. Many more may follow now Chungu and five others to Katima Mulilo in Namibia. He said the fee that Chiluba, very much preoccupied with his own survival, has to of $10,000 had been paid by a Congolese millionaire businessman and concentrate on negotiating with lawyers and the police, with less time presidential aspirant, Raphael Katebe Katoto, with another Zambia- for political scheming. based businessman, Joe Weihlar. The pilot said he had been introduced to Katoto by Jacques ‘Kiki’ Lemaire, a Belgian transport contractor Drug raids based in ; Lemaire and Chungu were among those named The anti-corruption drive is Mwanawasa’s best political card and the as supplying arms and fuel to Angola’s rebel União Nacional para a task force he appointed to investigate the plunder of national resources Independência Total de Angola, in violation of United Nations sanctions under Chiluba’s ten-year rule has been busy making arrests. On 31 against the late Jonas Savimbi’s UNITA. August, armed detectives and other officers from the Drug Enforcement The magistrate, Frank Tembo, revoked Chungu’s bail and sent him Commission stormed Chiluba’s house with a search warrant for drugs back to gaol. However, Graham was arrested in Mongu, western and stolen official documents. When Chiluba and his lawyers, John Zambia, near the border with Angola and Chungu was elsewhere. Sangwa and Robert Simeza, refused to cooperate, police broke down Chungu claims the affair was set up to put him in gaol for several years. the doors and searched the house – where they found only two guns and The government seems in no hurry to bring the case to court, and some half-shredded official documents. Graham refuses to leave Zambia without his impounded aeroplane. On the previous day, a High Court judge, Anthony Nyangulu, had Outside the anti-corruption campaign, Mwanawasa has few coherent ruled that parliament had lawfully lifted the ex-President’s immunity policies. In nine months, he has done little to improve the economy. (AC Vol 43 No 15). Chiluba appealed to the Supreme Court, saying Drought and food shortages are driving living standards down. School parliament had not followed the correct procedure; until the Supreme teachers are threatening to strike. Inflation is rising fast as the kwacha Court takes up the case again on 12 November, he may not be arrested falls. If things go on getting worse and the Supreme Court annuls the for offences committed while in office. The task force now wants to 2001 presidential election, Mwanawasa could lose everything. New arrest him for crimes allegedly committed after he left office in dissatisfactions may outweigh the popularity of the anti-corruption January 2002, notably for selling drugs, a charge Chiluba dismisses as campaign and if the Supreme Court were to find that he was personally political harassment. Detectives claim to have found drugs in his involved in election rigging, he would be banned from standing again. house; insiders say they were legitimate medicines. Chiluba’s problems have not abated. The houses of his lawyers, RWANDA Simeza and Sangwa, were searched and their offices barricaded by police who said they were looking for drugs and stolen items. The High Court issued a protection order for the lawyers and the Law Association of Zambia and the Human Rights Commission condemned Leaving the quagmire the searches. Police found in Sangwa’s house one ‘classified’ document, Kigali’s withdrawal of troops from Congo creates a letter from Mwanawasa to Tanzania’s President Benjamin Mkapa, problems for everyone soliciting support in dealing with Chiluba. Sangwa is charged with possessing stolen items and the task force has seized his new Jaguar According to a sympathetic diplomat, the Kigali government has car until he explains how he acquired such an expensive vehicle. ‘achieved in eight years what has taken 50 in Israel – the loss of the On 2 September, the task force searched the house of Chiluba’s moral high ground after a genocide against its people’. Rwanda no uncle and long-time Defence Minister, Ben Mwila, who in 2000 longer has special backing from the United States. Even its best allies

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in Britain and South Africa are nuancing their support. President Rwanda’s domestic judicial system, not the International Tribunal. ’s government is under pressure both to withdraw its Washington’s criticism of Rwanda’s military presence in eastern troops from Congo-Kinshasa (as Uganda and Zimbabwe have also Congo has increased, though, since Rwandan troops and their local promised) and to open up domestic politics in the lead up to next year’s proxies, the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie (RCD), multi-party elections. were blamed for massacres in Kisangani in May. To show disapproval, Kagame expects that the departure of the Armée Patriotique the USA abstained from a vote on the Executive Board of the Rwandaise (APR) could leave yet more chaos in Congo. Yet at last, International Monetary Fund for a three year soft loan of US$5 million following foreign pressure, the soldiers have started pulling out. On under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and $1 mn. of 19 September, the United Nations Mission in Congo (Monuc) confirmed additional interim aid under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor the withdrawal of 1,800 Rwandan troops from Kindu, the capital of Countries initiative. Britain still backs Kigali, though Secretary of Maniema Province, and Kalima town. Two days later, said Monuc, State for International Development Clare Short is far keener than the APR started withdrawing four battalions (over 3,000 soldiers) Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary Jack Straw, who listens more from the towns of Kongolo and Kabalo Nyunzu, and the strategic port to his French and Belgian counterparts. of Kalemie on Lake Tanganyika in north Katanga. On 21 September, Withdrawal from Congo also brings Kagame’s government under five fully loaded Antonov-32 flights took out munitions, light arms, domestic pressure from exiled oppositionists. Their coalition, Igihango, mortars, machine-guns, rocket launchers and anti-aircraft batteries. groups defectors from Kagame’s Front Patriotique Rwandais (FPR), Almost 5,000 troops, about a quarter of Rwanda’s formal contingent such as Christophe Hakizabera, with the Forces Démocratiques de in Congo-K, are due to be withdrawn by the end of September. Libération du Rwanda, which includes some Hutu fighters from However, Kagame and President Joseph Kabila agreed in Pretoria on Congo. Valens Kajeguhakwa (AC Vol 43 No 8), Igihango’s honorary 30 July on complete withdrawal of Rwandan troops within 90 days, in President, and Joseph Sebaranzi, former Speaker of the National parallel with the disarmament and demobilisation of the rebel Hutu Assembly, have sought political asylum in the USA. Hakizabera forces – Interahamwé and former Forces Armées Rwandaises (ex- argues that peace can be brought to the region only with democracy in FAR) – allied with the Kinshasa government’s Forces Armées Rwanda and wants a Rwandan political dialogue on the lines of this Congolaises. That quid pro quo had been the basis of the multilateral year’s Inter-Congolese Dialogue. He is trying to get Belgium and peace accord, signed in July 1999 but never implemented. France to support this idea.

Pretoria backs Kigali Paris and Kigali fall out again South Africa is still Rwanda’s most loyal ally. Pretoria’s diplomats Relations between Rwanda and France have deteriorated sharply this retired hurt from the Inter-Congolese Dialogue at Sun City in April, year. Firstly, a French court dismissed a defamation suit backed by when Kinshasa and its allies outmanoeuvred them. They need a Kagame against Cameroonian journalist Charles Onana, who claimed success and want Rwanda to stick to the Pretoria accord’s commitments the Rwandan leader had organised the shooting down of the late on troop withdrawal. Peace in Congo would bring business openings President Juvénal Habyarimana’s plane on 6 April 1994, thus in mining and consumer goods. South Africa is already investing in precipitating the genocide. The case was dismissed on the grounds Rwanda, where its power utility Eskom is ahead of Germany’s that the suit was filed more than three months after the publication of Lahmeyer International for the privatisation of Electrogaz, while a book by Onana. South Africa’s MTN, the market leader for mobile telephones in In August, Kagame said he intended to indict for their alleged roles Rwanda, is bidding for Rwandatel, the fixed line operator; South in the genocide several French officers and officials, including former Africa’s Engen is the biggest fuel distribution company in Rwanda Premier Edouard Balladur. Then in September, at the War College and wants more regional business. in Abuja, Nigeria, Kagame accused Belgium of having incited ethnic Some Washington analysts think newly peaceful Angola, with US hatred in Rwanda. This appeared to be a response to Foreign Minister backing, could play a constructive role in Congo; Britain and the USA Louis Michel’s criticism of Rwanda’s lack of democratisation and it hope Angola could help to counter Zimbabwe’s influence there. To might jeopardise plans by Belgian Premier Guy Verhofstadt to meet help that happen, Rwanda and Uganda were pressed to withdraw their Kagame in the wake of Kabila’s visit to Brussels on 16 September and troops from eastern Congo and stop supporting the rebel militias. thus appear as a main peace broker. Belgium feels it has been It wasn’t all one way. Washington launched its US Rewards outmanoeuvred by South Africa with the support of the USA. In the Programme in January 2001, offering big money for information event, Kagame and Kabila met in New York for eight minutes with leading to the arrest of suspected leaders of Rwanda’s genocide in President George W. Bush, after which Washington and London let 1994. It also put pressure on countries still harbouring killers; Kenya it be known that they were more serious than ever about stabilising launched a farcical search for a senior Interahamwé officer who had Congo. Later that week, Washington released its ‘new doctrine’, been living in a government villa some three kilometres from the including the proposition that failed states are more damaging to its United Nations regional office in Nairobi. security than victorious ones. The programme has already led to two arrests – in Brazzaville this The pressure is still on Kagame to liberalise Rwanda’s politics month of the former Mayor of Murambi, Jean-Baptiste Gatete; and ahead of a constitutional referendum and presidential election next in Angola on 2 August of former FAR commander General Augustin year. There are few signs of any political opening. Ex-President Bizimungu. Quite how Bizimungu came to be in a União Nacional Pasteur Bizimungu has been detained since December in Kigali, para a Independência Total de Angola refugee camp in Angola has not along with 20 activists from his Parti Démocratique pour le Renouveau- been convincingly explained. The next step could be the extradition Ubanyanja. Jean Mbanda, a former member of parliament from the of Tharcisse Renzaho, Préfet of Kigali during the genocide, who is Parti Social Démocrate, was detained after denouncing one-party sheltering in Congo-Brazzaville. rule. To diplomats and journalists, Kagame enthuses about multi- We hear the USA and Britain support Kagame’s view that massacres party politics and the need to avoid Uganda’s de facto one-party committed by the APR after the 1994 genocide should be dealt with by system. Even the tough FPR Secretary General, Charles Murigande,

4 27 September 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 19 argues that it’s better to promote political reform than be forced into aid, prepares radical economic reform and cracks down on it. Support for reform is growing within the parties that make up the corruption. Visiting London in early September, Ziguélé told FPR; Economy Minister Alexandre Lyambabje says the political Africa Confidential that only Libya had responded when he situation could explode unless some pressure is released. approached foreign ambassadors for help in fending off a coup The army chief, Brigadier General James Kaberebe, a long-time attempt in May 2001. Having assisted at this hour of need, Gadaffi commander in Congo, will have to manage the return of well over now has a toehold in a country that was for decades the French 20,000 soldiers in the coming months. More than 60 per cent of the ‘aircraft carrier’ at the heart of Africa. Sudan’s National Islamic APR’s troops are Hutu and many of these fought in the FAR a decade Front government also has a toehold, keeping troops in eastern ago. They could create havoc, in Rwanda and in Congo, too, without CAR under the aegis of the ill-defined, Libyan-based, Community properly financed and organised re-entry programmes. of Sahelo-Saharan States (Comessa), ostensibly to help keep the As Rwanda’s troops leave Congo, UN peacekeepers will be needed peace. Since Bangui has little control over the eastern third of the to hold the ring between the Rwandan-supported RCD and their local country, thinly inhabited except for largely Sudanese refugee opponents, to avoid a replay of the events in Bunia, north-east Congo, camps in the south-east, the Sudanese troops are pretty free to do when Ugandan troops pulled out and worse chaos erupted – until the what they want – including coming up behind the Sudan People’s UN asked the Ugandan forces to stay and stabilise the situation. Liberation Army inside Sudan. Some 2,000 Hutu militants have volunteered to return to Rwanda. Chadian President Idriss Déby is keen to woo back his former Most independent accounts reckon that 10,000-20,000 Hutu fighters backers in Paris and won a stopover by President Jacques Chirac are based in Congo; Rwanda claims there are at least 30,000, the UN in N’djamena on 31 August on the way to the World Summit on estimates about a third of that. In any case, their presence supports Sustainable Development in South Africa. The end of cohabitation Rwanda’s case for keeping soldiers there. Disarmament and between a Gaullist President and a Socialist parliament has helped demobilisation of every one of them is a precondition for the APR’s to ease the reconciliation between France and Chad after a long complete withdrawal. period of tension, despite the presence in Chad of some 1,000 Things are further complicated by the position of the Congolese French troops. Déby expelled successively a French Defence Banyamulenge, people related to Rwanda’s Tutsi, many of whom Attaché accused of being too close to the opposition, a group of oppose the Kigali government. When the second Congo war broke out agents from the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure in August 1998, Kigali said it had to send troops to protect the (DGSE) in 1998 and in March 2000, Ambassador Alain du Boispéan Congolese Tutsi. Now a Banyamulenge militia, based on the Itombwe (AC Vol 41 No 6). On Déby’s last visit to France, he refused to plateau in South Kivu and led by Patrick Masunzu, is fighting the meet the then Premier, Lionel Jospin. APR and its RCD-Goma allies; this seems to have prompted Kigali to France, Déby now hopes, can provide a counterweight to Libya’s repatriate Banyamulenge refugees from Rwanda to Congo’s North influence in CAR, where Chadian rebels are based, as well as Kivu province, against the wishes of the office of the UN High valuable support at the World Bank to see off critics of the Chad- Commissioner for Refugees. Cameroon pipeline project (AC Vol 43 No 17). A power struggle has already started between the RCD-Goma and nationalist Mayi-Mayi groups. A year ago, many argued that the Who’s attacking whom? situation in eastern Congo couldn’t get worse, whatever Rwanda did. The bitter row between Chad and CAR over border security Its withdrawal may yet prove them wrong. continues, with each country denying responsibility for attacks on the other’s frontier villages. Most recently, Chadian officials hinted that a 19 September attack on the village of Tissi, near the CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC point where the borders of Chad, Sudan and CAR converge, had been mounted by groups crossing from Birao, the northernmost CAR town. Bangui denied the claims and the Alliance Nationale Our friends in the north de la Résistance, a Chadian rebel group that had been dormant for years, issued a statement in Khartoum claiming responsibility and Libyan troops make President Patassé feel more insisting the assailants were based in Chad. secure but he doesn’t seem to trust anyone While Chad’s biggest economic problem will soon be handling Though Central African Republic has now denied giving Libya a the shock to the economy of sudden oil income, CAR remains 99-year minerals lease, Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi is certainly dependent on donors’ will to prevent economic collapse and further getting valuable strategic benefits from providing security for the instability. Encouraged by the reformist commitment of Ziguélé (a Bangui government. For Libya, CAR’s main attraction is not so down-to-earth former insurance official, who hails from the same much its minerals as its strategic position, which enhances Tripoli’s region as Patassé) the International Monetary Fund provisionally diplomatic and military influence in the Congo Basin and reinforces agreed a new Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility in June. its capacity to maintain pressure on Chad, sandwiched between Yet Board approval was stymied by objections from the African CAR and Libya. Development Bank, which vetoed approval of the deal until it has For President Ange-Félix Patassé, who has maintained personal secured Bangui’s 22 billion CFA francs (US$15 million) in arrears. ties with Tripoli for many years, Libya’s military presence in his The government offered a down payment of $6 mn. and to spread capital provides crucial reassurance at a time when the loyalty of the rest over two years but the ADB declined, having apparently his own troops cannot be assured. Even the Unité de Sécurité heard such promises before. France has now offered to plead Personnelle, the presidential guard dominated by recruits from his Bangui’s case and the World Bank has announced the release of $6 native north-west, is regarded as suspect. mn. still undisbursed from old credits to CAR. Nominally, the Patassé is playing a diminished role in day-to-day government, Bank cash is to clear public sector pay arrears but it might just give while Premier Martin Ziguélé tours foreign capitals in search of Ziguélé the means to placate the ADB and obtain the new IMF

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programme – especially as the Bank has said $16 mn. of new rebel Abdoulaye Miskine for security operations in the sensitive money is in the pipeline. border zone, angering Déby. A mediation mission under Gabonese Donor attitudes may have softened after Bangui’s denial on 22 Foreign Minister Jean Ping and the local UN representative, September of reports that it had signed a 99-year treaty giving Senegalese General Lamine Cissé, is trying to patch up the bitter Libya the rights to its mainly unexploited oil, uranium and other dispute between Bangui and N’djamena. mineral resources. CAR Mines Minister André Nalke Dorogo Ziguélé told us that weapons had been found in the villa of one had talked of the deal in an interview, claiming it was unrelated to of Bozizé’s friends. The Premier said Démafouth, after his arrest Libya’s military assistance to Patassé. last August, pointed the finger at Bozizé. Whatever was discussed, it was never plausible that the Fund The Prime Minister disputes independent assessments that Bozizé would agree to launch its much needed new programme if Bangui remains highly popular in the ranks and he dismisses the former committed itself to handing outside interests such a large chunk of General’s capacity to foment trouble in the north, attributing recent national resources for such a long period and in such murky attacks to Chad’s own troops. circumstances. Ziguélé said that on 5 August, a CAR patrol in the border village of Moyenne Sido was fired on with heavy weapons, as held by the Climate of suspicion Chadian army, not Bozizé’s lightly armed fighters. On the next While the economy and relations with donors gradually recover, day, Ziguélé claims, Chad attacked Mboh, 17 kilometres into CAR, Bangui has become a city of accusations, warnings and unexplained then on 10 August, Kabo, 67 kilometers from the border. Bozizé plots as Chief Prosecutor Joseph Bindoumi pursues seemingly could not have organised the attacks, he argues, because he was in endless investigations into anyone potentially connected to the France for medical treatment till just beforehand. He says Chad’s May 2001 coup attempt (AC Vol 42 No 12). troops were still in the Central African part of Moyenne Sido in Some 82 suspects have been on trial: by far the most prominent early September. is former Defence Minister Jean-Jacques Démafouth. Before his arrest in August 2001, he was one of Patassé’s closest confidants. SWAZILAND His trial began in February, broke off, then resumed this month. He is accused of preparing a second coup, allegedly in parallel with the violent failed putsch led by ex-President André Kolingba (in exile in Uganda and condemned to death in absentia). Bindoumi King and pawns has called for 20 years’ hard labour for Démafouth for ‘assaulting Absolute monarchy may be benign but state security’. Days of supposedly devastating testimony have donors and neighbours don’t like it failed to shed much light on the allegations. The Prosecutor charged that Démafouth failed to act on Patassé’s One of Africa’s most traditional states may be in for the shock of request for the army to be put on alert five days before the 28 May a modern constitution. As pressure for change builds up both at coup date. He also claimed there was devastating evidence against home and abroad, a committee headed by Prince David Dlamini is Démafouth in two documents found in the home of Jean-Pierre due to publish the draft of a new constitution next month. Prince Lhommée, the United Nations’ Bangui security chief killed by David, who is reputedly taking his job very seriously, is a former intruders at a UN residence in June 2001 in a still unexplained Ambassador to Denmark and a son of King Mswati III’s father, attack. King Sobhuza II, who died in 1982 after reigning for 62 years. Bindoumi cited a taped telephone conversation where Démafouth Swaziland’s creaky constitution has given its people political was allegedly asking Congo-Kinshasa rebel leader Jean-Pierre stability, the respect of its less sure-footed neighbours and the Bemba for troops to help him take power in Bangui. This was assent of its poor and mainly rural people. Its basis is a monarchy supposed to be the prime evidence against the Minister but it was in which authority has been shared between the King – now Mswati never produced in court. In vain, the defence team asked the court III – and the Queen Mother for as long as anybody can remember. to order the prosecution to produce the tape. Démafouth denied the However, for such arrangements, time is up. The donors upon charges and no witness implicated him. In his own evidence, he which Swaziland depends insist on ‘good governance’. Meanwhile, raised questions about the behaviour of some senior military the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD), agreed figures, including former Chief of Staff François Bozizé, who fled between states many of which have lately faced civil war, coups, the country with 300 followers last November. corruption and general misgovernment, sets standards for democracy, civil liberties and political rights which Swaziland has Spilling the beans on Bozizé so far bypassed. Change is coming and Swaziland is slowly and During his London visit this month, Ziguélé confidently predicted nervously getting ready. that Démafouth would spill the beans on the activities of Bozizé, Political parties, formally banned since 1973, are tolerated who is now based in Chad, whence his followers are said to be provided that they do not talk out of line. Mario Masuku, who mounting guerrilla raids into CAR’s northern cotton belt, Patassé’s leads the opposition People’s United Democratic Movement political base. (Pudemo) was arrested in October 2001 for uttering ‘seditious Better relations with Paris and multilateral donors have boosted slogans meant to lower the dignity of the King’ at a public meeting the government’s self-confidence. On 5 August, French and held in a harsh gaol until 22 August this year, when a court Cooperation Minister Pierre-André Wiltzer told Ziguélé that found him not guilty. Chirac was ready to receive Patassé at the Elysée Palace late this In the mid-1990s, trades unions frequently went on strike to year or early next. demand political change; in January 1996, King Mswati reacted by Meanwhile Bozizé, nominally a political refugee, enjoys Déby’s threatening to call in his traditional warriors to support the police protection for his military activities. CAR used Chadian former and regular army. While keeping up the pressure on the unions, the

6 27 September 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 19 government reluctantly yielded to advice from the International plane did not come from donors; the down-payment of $2.5 mn., to Labour Organisation and some other countries and reformed laws be followed by $2.5 mn. more in November, was from the $4 mn. governing strikes (AC Vol 41 No 24). The safety valves are a allocated by parliament for the King’s ‘Millennium Projects’. fairly free press, which has recently begun to attack the King Other dubious millennium projects (mathematically or otherwise) directly rather than his advisors; a fairly free judiciary; and the include a new $225 mn. international airport, a hotel and a system called Tinkhundla, under which 200,000 of the nation’s one convention centre, when existing facilities stand unused. million people are registered to vote: 120,000 did so at the last As the controversy continued, Attorney General Phesheya elections in 1998, also fairly free. This has produced a lively and Dlamini said he had not been consulted and dissociated himself critical parliament, which harasses cabinet ministers. Nevertheless, from the purchase agreement – while emphasising that parliament, the monarch appoints 20 of the 30 members of the upper house, the not the King, had made it. On 25 August, the first Swazi head of Senate, and controls legislation. Traditionalists claim the system the Roman Catholic Church in Swaziland, Bishop Louis Ndlovu, suits the Swazis, who are deeply attached to ancient traditions and authorised a pastoral letter which bluntly accused the King of culture and wary of the strife multi-partyism has brought elsewhere. failing to alleviate his subjects’ poverty. The Premier replied that Pudemo, though, calls for an election boycott next year. the Church was misinformed; the King said that the government, Five years ago the King, amid high hopes, set up a Constitutional not he, had ordered the plane and the the final decision was up to Reform Commission. Since Mswati picked its members, it was not parliament – a view he has rarely expressed on other issues. surprising that its report, delivered to the King in August 2001, two It was reported that a prominent local businessman might assist, years late, recommended no real change. David Dlamini’s either by negotiating exit from the purchase or with the deposits. committee, set up on 1 December 2001, may be a different matter. Another rumour was that Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi External pressures are building up. ’s President might help: he had charmed and amazed Swazis by handing out Joachim Chissano, visiting Mbabane in March, said political dollar bills and tee-shirts from his 100-car entourage during a visit transformation was needed for the improvement of Swaziland’s in July. Gadaffi, who is also busy in Central African Republic own economy and those of the other members of the Southern (see Feature), was also said to be considering providing Swaziland Africa Development Community. United States Ambassador with oil, as he has for Zimbabwe. Cynics wonder if some of James McGee, reading a formal message from President George Swaziland’s large farms might be exchangeable for oil. W. Bush on 4 July, US Independence Day, said the new draft As publication of the draft constitution approached, an ‘Assembly constitution would be the most important document produced in of Pro-democratic Forces’ including parties, unions and human Swaziland in over a generation. To the astonishment of many rights organisations, urged that the King should lose his legislative Swazi officials, he said the aspirations and basic rights of all Swazi and judicial powers and remain Head of State as a ‘symbol of citizens must be guaranteed and the government must dismiss old, national unity’, a constitutional monarch alongside a democratically outdated policies and respond proactively with creativity and elected prime minister, subject to a Bill of Human Rights. Yet at vigour. Mswati’s reply insisted that traditions made Swaziland the annual Reed Dance in August, some 30,000 maidens, more than unique and would have a place in the new constitution, which the usual attendance, paid tribute to the King and Queen Mother. would reflect the progress and the changes that had taken place Many educated urban people are anti-monarchist but the rural during three centuries as a recognisable nation state. These traditions majority of Swazis seems to dislike political parties. include rapid royal polygamy: Mswati, 34, has just chosen his tenth It had always been assumed that the draft constitution would wife – his second 18-year-old and his third wife since June. propose maintaining or even strengthening royal powers but the committee is said to disagree about this. Its members, advised by King grounded a Commonwealth team, might just have the courage to spring a The tricky relationship between elected members of parliament surprise. Deputy Premier Arthur Khoza told a meeting attended and the government was illuminated in July, when it was revealed by the illegal political parties: ‘There comes a time in the life of a that the government had secretly agreed to acquire a US$45 million man, a community, or a nation when all else must be sacrificed in Bombardier executive aircraft for use by the King when drumming order to secure the future, to ensure that the morrow will be safe, up foreign investment. Prime Minister Sibusiso Dlamini said he happy, peaceful and prosperous’. He could have added that it will had decided to buy it so that the King could travel safely and be controversial, too. comfortably after the 11 September attacks. Several MPs called for a vote of no confidence and on 31 July, some senators called for Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com the Prime Minister’s arrest, for the ‘criminal offence’ of using Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at taxpayers’ money without the approval of parliament. Yet 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Sibusiso’s position as the main buffer between the monarchy and Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk the ‘progressive’ parties, unions, churches and other civil society and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. bodies is secure, since only the King can remove him. 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(see Features) keeping his title of ‘Leader’ but Pointers KENYA retiring from day-to-day government ‘to his tent at Sirte’ (AC Vol 42 No 14). Though officials deny it vehemently, the first head of state could be AFRICA/IRAQ KANU at war rising star Mohamed Seif el Islam el Gadaffi, Self-declared politics professor President Daniel Moammar’s eldest son by his second marriage. arap Moi is trying to bring his ruling Kenya No timetable is set for the changes, giving time to Uranium trail African National Union to order before its 8 conclude unfinished business such as Lockerbie, British Premier Tony Blair’s claim that Iraqi October conference at Kasarani to nominate a and rebuilding ties with the United States. President Saddam Hussein tried to get ‘significant presidential candidate (AC Vol 43 No 18). He Mohamed Seif el Islam’s influence is now quantities of uranium from Africa’ seems to be alternately woos and rebuffs Rainbow Alliance apparent in policies aimed at normalising ties with drawn from sources in South Africa and Congo- dissidents. Assistant Minister David Sankori the West, from improving Libya’s human rights Kinshasa. was sacked on 20 September for opposing Moi’s record to joining the World Trade Organisation. The first is a decade out of date. South Africa’s choice of Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU flagbearer Key figures back these, including veterans such as apartheid government under President Johannes in this year’s elections. Sankori, who supports ex- the Leader’s cousin Ahmed Gadaff Edam and Vorster signed a deal to supply uranium to Saddam Vice-President George Saitoti’s candidacy, is intelligence chief Moussa Kousa. Other in 1986 and delivered 50 kilogrammes of it in the fifth Rainbow minister sacked. influential people in this camp include London 1988, according to testimony given to the BBC Only Transport Minister Musalia Mudavadi Ambassador Mohammed el Zwai. Seif el Islam from a defecting Iraqi nuclear engineer. A South was beaten back in line, though there’s speculation (28) will take his time, with a stay in Britain African intelligence officer told the BBC the KANU ex-Secretary General Joseph Kamotho planned as a post-graduate at the London School United States knew of and approved the deal. might rejoin Moi’s clique. of Economics and more overseas network building. Vorster started SA’s nuclear programme, run with KANU’s problems are more serious since Rapprochement with the West has been eased help from China, France, Germany and, Rainbow leaders Saitoti, Energy Minister Raila by considerable information-sharing with and via especially, Israel (AC Vol 34 No 7). Odinga and Tourism Minister Kalonzo Musyoka British counter-intelligence, MI6, since the 11 The second set of sources comprises two attended a rally last week beside the formal September 2001 attacks on the USA. This opened Congolese ex-officials who say stocks of enriched opposition National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) led the way for British junior Foreign Minister Mike uranium were stolen from the research reactor at by Mwai Kibaki, Michael Kijana Wamalwa O’Brien to visit Tripoli in August and helped Kinshasa University and were transported via and Charity Ngilu and the People’s Alliance keep Libya out of President George W. Bush’s Libya to Iraq. Tripoli strongly denied under Simeon Nyachae. That has led to talks on ‘Axis of Evil’, which targets Iraq, Iran and North involvement. The Vienna-based International a ‘Super Alliance’ – a powerful opposition Korea. Western chanceries have also noted moves Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed coalition that could deliver majority votes in all to sideline hardliners such as Gadaffi’s cousin the loss of two rods of enriched uranium from eight provinces. But managing the ambitions of Ahmed Ibrahim (now Ambassador to Chad) and Kinshasa, apparently stolen during the overthrow such disparate politicians looks hard. NAK began former right-hand man Abdullah Senoussi, of President in 1997. One rod well on 18 September, agreeing a joint election indicted in Paris for his alleged role in the 1989 was recovered from a mafia gang in Rome in a platform, with Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu bombing of a French aircraft over Niger. covert operation in February 1998 where an Italian standing for President, Vice-President and Premier police officer posed as an Egyptian arms dealer. respectively. In 1997, the three (then rivals) won WORLD BANK The Italian police are yet to reveal how the mafia 2.9 million votes – 500,000 more than Moi. obtained the uranium or to trace the whereabouts Uhuru should win KANU’s nomination on 8 of the second rod. October and would take much of Kibaki’s support Joined-up aid Supplied to Kinshasa’s Triga Mark II reactor in the Kikuyu strongholds of Central and Nairobi The late September annual meetings of the by America’s General Atomic, the rods are provinces. Yet he might also drive Saitoti and International Monetary Fund and World Bank classified as low enriched uranium (LEU), that is, Odinga out of KANU and with them, over 1.5 mn. will discuss proposals to review the performance they contain 19.7-19.9 per cent fissionable U-235. votes from Rift Valley and Nyanza. Their use of of national development agencies and multilateral Highly enriched uranium (HEU) requires over 20 that bargaining chip is the key to the election institutions to check whether they reduce poverty. per cent fissionable U-235. The missing bar could result. If they join NAK, the opposition could A paper prepared by Bank staff argues it is be used to build a ‘dirty bomb’, which experts say topple KANU on its third attempt; if they form a ‘imperative’ that the performance of individual could blow a substantial hole in the ground and third force, Uhuru could run through the middle. agencies is gauged according to clearly defined contaminate an area of several square kilometres standards, and places unprecedented stress on for over a century. LIBYA poor countries setting their own national strategies. Though the United Nations’ IAEA and the The document, ‘Better Measuring, Monitoring, Rome government confirm the reports of the stolen and Managing for Development Results’ outlines rod, the Congo-K government dismisses this as Retirement tent how the Bank’s own ratings system for monitoring ‘absurd’. A probable side effect of Blair’s claims Leaders of the Gadaffi family circle and expert development performance could become an about African uranium will be moves by the USA committees are quietly discussing plans for a international benchmark for other donors. and IAEA to impose tighter security on the constitution. This would formalise Libya’s Agencies such as the Bank and Fund are under Kinshasa reactor. Africa produces about a fifth of transition from revolutionary state of the masses pressure to produce clear results to sustain political the world’s uranium, mostly in Gabon, Namibia, (‘Jamahiriya’) to one where policy is governed by support for increased aid, especially in the United Niger and South Africa. Reports of smuggled ‘national interest’ and a more efficient executive. States, where the Christian Right, with its close uranium on sale crop up regularly, including in The new constitution should create the post of connections to the Republican Party, has a moral Sudan, which has close ties to Baghdad. head of state, with Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi belief in aid but also wants to see value for money.

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