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Automotive Industry: Trends and Reflections WP. 278 The Global Economic Crisis Sectoral Coverage Automotive Industry: Trends and reflections International Labour Office Geneva 2010 Copyright © International Labour Organization 2010 First published 2010 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Permissions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. Graham, Ian Automotive Industry: Trends and reflections ISBN: 978-92-2-124103-4 (print) ISBN: 978-92-2-124104-1 (Web pdf) International Labour Office. Sectoral Activities Department ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications and electronic products can be obtained through major booksellers or ILO local offices in many countries, or direct from ILO Publications, International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: [email protected]. Visit our web site: ilo.org/publns. Printed by the International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland Preface The automotive industry is an important pillar of the world economy. It affects every aspect of daily life and it is an important source of employment – approximately 5 percent of global labour force is directly or indirectly employed in this industry. The total turnover of the automotive industry is greater than the gross domestic product of France. The global economic crisis struck the auto industry right from the beginning and with devastating effect. Nearly every automaker posted double-digit declines in sales; Toyota announced its first operating loss in 70 years. GM and Chrysler went through a major restructuring. Corporate profits suffered, as did too the workforce, as hundreds of thousands lost their jobs. The ILO did not waste time in reacting to the crisis in the automotive industry and the ILO Director-General, Mr. Juan Somavia, was keen to learn, how ILO could contribute to mitigating the effects of the crisis. In May 2009 the Sectoral Activities Department, together with ILO’s International Institute for Labour Studies, organized a research roundtable on the automotive industry. Over 20 experts on the automotive industry from universities, international organizations, policy think tanks, employers’ and workers’ experts, the IOE and the ITUC took part in the discussions over two days. In December 2009 the Sectoral Activities Department organized a regional workshop for selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This three days workshop gathered nearly 50 participants from eight countries to deliberate employment relationship, rights at work and social protection and the impact of the economic crisis. Four country papers were prepared for the workshop. In addition, a report on the automotive industry in Brazil was prepared. This report consists of two parts: the first part draws together the presentations and discussions of the research roundtable, whereas the second part sheds light on the auto industry in five countries (Australia, Brazil, India, Republic of Korea and Malaysia). This report is part of a series of working papers aimed at monitoring the crisis in different economic sectors, understanding the implications for employment and working conditions, and developing policy alternatives for constituents in line with the ILO’s Global Jobs Pact. Elizabeth Tinoco Director Sectoral Activities Department (SECTOR) International Labour Office (ILO) wp278-NR.doc iii Table of contents Page Preface ............................................................................................................................................... iii The Crisis Unfolding: ILO Research Roundtable, Geneva, May 2009 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... xix 1. Introduction: Global context and business models ................................................................ 1 1.1. Global situation ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1. Measures to cope with the crisis ......................................................................... 3 1.2. The current business model .......................................................................................... 4 1.2.1. Excessive pressure on suppliers ......................................................................... 7 1.2.2. Research and development: Limited real innovation ......................................... 8 1.2.3. Brand protection and aftermarket rip-off ............................................................ 9 2. Crisis in the automotive industry: Where are we now? ......................................................... 11 2.1. Cases ............................................................................................................................. 11 2.1.1. North America ................................................................................................... 11 Problems of the US automotive industry ............................................................ 11 Other industry sectors ......................................................................................... 13 Premises and acceptance of decline .................................................................... 14 Government policy towards the US automotive industry ................................... 15 Conclusions on the US automotive industry ...................................................... 16 2.1.2. Japan .................................................................................................................. 17 2.1.3. Germany ............................................................................................................. 18 Measures to cope with the crisis ......................................................................... 19 Employment implications and human effects of the crisis ................................. 20 Conclusions on the German automobile industry ............................................... 21 2.1.4. France ................................................................................................................. 21 The macroeconomic context ............................................................................... 22 The French market before and after the crisis .................................................... 22 The crisis reveals the unsustainability of a regime ............................................. 23 Production, employment and international trade in the French automobile industry ...................................................................... 24 Public policies and the automotive sector .......................................................... 25 Conclusions on the French automotive industry ................................................ 26 2.1.5. China .................................................................................................................. 27 Falling market demand ....................................................................................... 28 Automotive Industry Readjustment and Revitalization Plan .............................. 29 Independent innovation and branding ................................................................ 30 New energy vehicles ........................................................................................... 30 Consolidation and capacity control .................................................................... 31 The initial impact of the Plan and future trends ................................................. 32 wp278-NR.doc v 2.1.6. India ................................................................................................................... 33 The evolution of the Indian automotive industry ............................................... 33 Phase I: Pre-independence .................................................................................. 33 Phase II: Post-independence (1950 to 1980) .....................................................
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