World Bank Document

Document of The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. P-4017-BD

REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION

OF THE

PRESIDENT OF THE

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

ON A PROPOSED CREDIT

IN AN AMOUNT OF SDR 31.3 MILLION

TO THE

PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BANGLADESH FOR A

Public Disclosure Authorized FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

April 11, 1985 Public Disclosure Authorized

This document has a restricted distributionad maybe usedby recipientsonly in the performanceof ftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

The external value of the Bangladesh Taka (Tk) is fixed in relation to a basket of refeience currencies, with the US dollar serving as intervention currency. On February 25, 1985 the official exchange rate was set at Tk 26.47 buying and Tk 26.53 selling per US dollar. Unless noted otherwise, the rates shown below have been used throughout this report:

l Taka = US$0.04 26.0 Taka = US$1.00

WEIGliTS AND MEASURES

1 inch (in) 25.4 millimeters (mm) 1 foot (ft) = 30.5 centimeters l mile (mi) 1.509 kilometers (km) I square mile (sq mi) 640 acres (ac) hectares (ha) I acre (ac) = 0.405 hectares (ha)

I bigha - 0.333 acres (ac) = 0.135 hectares (ha) I bale (cotton) = 178 kilograms (kg) I bale (jute) = 186 kilograms (kg) 1 cubic foot per second - 0.028 cubic meters per second (cusec) (m3sec)

ABBREVIATIONS USED

ADP - Annual Development Program BWDB - Bangladesh Water Development Board IWTA - Inland Water Transport Authority LGD - Local Government Division LGEB - Local Government Engineering Bureau MTFPP - Medium Term Foodgrain Production Program PPAR - Project Performance Audit Report RHD - Roads and Highways Department UNDP - United Nations Development Programme

GLOSSARY

Aman - Rice planted before or during the monsoon season and harvestEl in November-December.

Aus - Rice planted during February-March and harvested during June-July.

Bcro - Rice transplanted in December-January and lharvested in April-May.

District - Administrative unit comprising a number of upazilas.

Upazila - Smallest administrative unit as defined by Local Government.

FISCAI. YEAR (FY)

July 1 - June 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Credit and Project Summary

Borrower : The Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.

Amount : SDR 31.3 million (US$30.0million equivalent)

Terms Standard

Proiect Description The project would comprise priority components of the Government's program to rehabilitate flood damaged facilities and would include: (a) rehabilitation of irrigation, drainage and flood protection works; (b) rehabilitationwork on roads and associated structures; (c) procurement of road construction equipment; (d) replacement of navigational aids and water gauging equipment; (e) repair of river landing jetties; and (f) provision of technical services by local and foreign consultants.

Risks Delay in executing the project might result from constraints a'fecting the four implementingagencies. However, the works to be undertaken are relatively simple and are well within the capacity of the individual agencies concerned. Because the project comprises a large number of individual rehabilitation schemes and because of their urgent nature the appraisal of the individual components has not been subject to the usual standard of scrutiny; however, only those schemes which meet criteria agreed with IDA will be accepted for financing. Because rehabilitationworks would be scattered throughout the flood afflfectedarea, it may prove difficult to supervise individual schemes closely. However, consultants would be employed to assist the executing agencies in reviewing the proposed works against the agreed criteria and in supervising and implementing these works.

This document has a restricted distribution and may beused by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Estimated Proiect Costs la Local Foreign Cost Exchange Total -US$ Million Equivzlent-

Civil Works Irrigation, drainage and flood protection (BWDB) 9.14 3.07 12.21 Roads and associated structures (RHD) 10.67 3.56 14.23 River landing jetties (IWTA) .09 .03 .12 Roads and associated structures (LGD) 4.50 1.50 6.00

Total Civil Works 24.40 8.16 32.56

Equipment Purchase 1.73 2.34 4.07 Consu ltancies .81 .81 1.62 Engineering and Administration 3.27 _ 3.27

Total Base Cost 30.21 11.31 41.52

Physical Contingencies 2.36 .87 3.23 Price Contingencies 2.69 .81 3.50

Total Project Costs 35.26 12.99 48.25

/a Including US$1.8 million equivalent in duties and taxes.

Financing Plan Local Foreign Cost Exchanze Total -US$ Million Equival.ent-

Proposed Flood Rehabilitation Project 19.60 10.40 30.00 Credit 864-BD Savings 5.10 1.70 6.80 Credit 1184-BD Savings 3.00 1.00 4.00

Government of Bangladesb 7.43 _ 7.43

Total 35.13 13.10 48.23

Estimated Disbursements:

IDA Fiscal Year 1985 1986 1987

Annual 5 20 5 Cumulative 5 25 30 -iii-

Rate of Return Not Applicable

Map: Area flooded in 1984 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON tAPROPOSED CREDIT TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BANGLADESHFOR A FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

1. I submit the following report and recoumendation for a proposed credit to the People's Republic of Bangladesh for SDR 31.3 million (the equivalent of US$30 million), on standard IDA terms, to help the Government's program of rehabilitating infrastructure damaged by the floods in 1984.

PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/

Introduction

2. An economic report entitled "BangLadesh: Economic and Social Development Prospects" (Report No. 5409-BD, dated April 2, 1985) has been distributed to the Executive Directors.

3. Bangladesh, which became independent in 1972 under very difficult circumstances, is a country with a very high population density and widespread poverty (annual income per capita is about US$130). The economy, dominated by agriculture, remains highly vulnerable to disruption by both natural and external factors. Although considerable progress has been made in terms of increased flood control, and extending the availability of irrigation and other inputs, foodgrain production remains beavily dependent on weather conditions and falls short of domestic requirements. To meet minimum needs, the Government has to import foodgrains financed by aid or from its own resources. The uncertainties of foodgrain availability also make it necessary to maintain public foodgrain stocks, the financing of which adds to the problems of fiscal management.

4. The economy is also characterized by low savings, which reflect the low level of incomes, and by a large structural external payments gap. Domestic savings account for only a negligibLe part of investment (which has averaged about 16% of CDP in recent years). Export earnings cover less than 30Z of the import bill, with raw jute and jute goods accounting for about 60%

1/ Parts I and II of this report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Second Primary Education Project (Report No. 3976-BD) dated March 7, 1985. -2-

of merchandise exports. The resource gap of about 15% of GDP is financed by workers' remittances, which rose rapidly to more than 5% of GDP in FY83 (beforedeclining somewhat during the past two years) and by foreign assistance equi.valentto about 10% of GDP per annum. The capacity to finance imports can be sharply affected by external factors that are beyond the control of the Government; the effect of such adverse factors on the economy is amplified by the heavy dependence of budgetary revenues on import duties and sales taxes, which together account for about 60% of tax revenues.

Recent Economic Developments

5. In the late 1970s, Bangladesh enjoyed a period of political stability and economic consolidation and was able to plan for longer-term development. GDP growth of nearly 6Z per annum from FY75 to FY80 was accompanied by rising public investment, financed by a substantial real increase in aid disbursements. A combination of adverse domestic and external events after FY80 disruoted the momentum of development. Between FY80 and FY82, the external terms of trade for Bangladesh fell by 30%, due to declining prices for jute and jute products, as well as to increases in import prices. External aid flows, which had been rising steadily up to FY80, declined in FY81 and in FY82 barely recovered to their FY80 level. Foreign exchange reserves declined to about US$120 million (equivalent to about two weeks' imports) by end-FY82. The deterioration in the terms of trade and stagnation of aid receipts in real terms had an adverse impact on public finances and forced the Government to impose severe cuts in domestic public investment in FY81 and FY82. At the same time, the rate of growth in GDP decreased from about 6% in FY81 to 1.4% in FY82, largely due to a decline in food crop production following a prolonged drought during FY82.

6. In response to these adverse developments, the Government took a series of measures designed to stabilize the economy. In the FY83 Budget, growth of public expenditure was tightly restrained, new tax measures were introduced and a series of pricing adjustments were made to reduce subsidies and improve the financial performance of public sector enterprises and utilities. Taken together, the tax, pricing, and subsidy-reductionmeasures amounted to an impressive 2.3% of GDP. In FY83, the Government also announced its New Industrial Policy designed to improve the efficiency of public sector enterprises and provide an improved policy environment for the private sector. More than 100 public sector enterprises were subsequently denationalized, investment sanctioning procedures were streamlined and many industries freed from requiring investment sanctions. Imports were liberalized by increasing access to imports through a secondary exchange market and by eliminating some quanticative restrictions. By the end of FY83, the balance of payments position had improved considerably, due to a recovery in the terms of trade, an upsurge in workers' remittances, higher aid inflows, as welL as increasing exports stimulated by a substantial depreciation in the exchange rate. However, the reduction in the current account deficit, which fell from 14.5% to 10.4% of GDP, was also due to the depressed level of imports resulting from a continued s'lowrate of GDP growth, which recovered -3-

to only about 2.7% in FY83. While more favorable weather conditions and increased inputs Led to a 3-4% growth in agriculture, most of the non- agricultural sectors remained depressed; value added in the manufacturing sector actually declined by 1-2%.

7. Economic performance remained mixed in FY84, with GDP growing at only 3%, marginally above the previous year's performance. Agricultural production was significantly affected by late floods in autumn 1983, followed by drought and early floods in spring 1984, which continued with exceptional severity through September 1984. The Losses caused by the floods will also adversely affect crop prospects for FY85, although a part of the loss may be compensated for by higher yields in areas less affected. On the other hand, there has been a sharp recovery in the non-agricultural sectors, beginning in FY84 and continuing into FY85, partly stimulated by a significant expansion in domestic credit, but also supported in respect of the manufacturing sector by the earlier liberalization of import policies and the rationalization of investment sanctioning procedures.

8. Following the major domestic revenue effort made in FY83, the Government has sought to consolidate that effort in its FY84 and FY85 Budgets, rather than to embark on major new initiatives. Further modest tax and pricing adjustments were made to increase recurrent revenues, but total revenues for FY84 were well short of the budget target as dutiable imports and aid disbursements fell considerably below expectation. In FY85, tax revenues received a significant boost from the resurgence of imports associated with the recovery of the non-industeial sectors. A substantial budget deficit was avoided in FY84 by a significant shortfall in development expenditures compared with the budget estimate; a similar shortfall in the Annual Development Programme expendituresmay occur during FY85. Such short- falls arise partly from overly ambitious development expenditure targets, but are also attributable to lower than expected disbursements of project aid as a result of implementationconstraints.

9. Although domestic prices have remained relatively stable despite the large increases in domestic liquidity, the rate of inflation is expected to increase from about 12% in FY84 to about 14-15% in FY85. However, in January 1985, the Covernment took a series of measures to limit the growth of liquidity. The measures included increases in interest rates and quantita- tive restrictions on the growth of domestic credit. If these credit policies are maintained in FY85 and FY86, the acceleration of inflation can be limited and the pressures on domestic prices gradually reduced.

10. The balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves position improved during FY84. Export earnings rose by 20%, due to higher international prices for jute, jute products, and tea, as well as a major boost in non-traditional exports, while imports remained close to the FY83 level since economic recovery was slower than anticipated and aid-financed imports were depressed by delays in project implementation. Even though workers' remittances began to decline in the second half of the fiscal year, the current -4-

account deficit as a whole decLined to 7.4X of GDP in FY84 from 10.4Z in FY83, while gross foreign exchange reserves in March 1984 reached a peak of US$558 million, equivalent to about 3 months' imports. However, during FY85 there has been a deterioration in the balance of payments. Part of the growing pressure on the balance of payments arises from the additional foodgrain imports necessitated by the severe 1984 floods. Since immediate additional food aid in response to the crisis was limited, the Government had to purchase about 1.25 million tons of foodgrains, valued at close to US$250 million, from its own resources. Non-food imports are also projected to increase significantly as a result of the strong recovery in Lhe manufacturing sector stimulated by the rapid expansion in domestic credit. Workers' remittances have also declined further and although exports and aid disbursements are expected to increase over FY84 levels, a substantial drawdown of reserves of over US$150 million is projected for FY85. The decline in reserves would have been even more marked if a substantial portion (about US$190 million) of foodgrain imports had not been purchased on credit. This short- term borrowing will, however, add to the difficulty of managing the balance of payments over the next three years when there will also be substantial obligations for repurchases from the IMF.

External Debt

11. Since most of Bangladesh's borrowings have been on highly concessional terms, servicing external medium- and long-term debts has not been a major problem. Nonetheless, the burden of servicing this concessional debt is rising steadily as debts incurred in the first years after independence are increasingly falling due for repayment. Total service payments on external public medium- and long-term debt are expected to rise from about 13% of export earnings (goods, services, and workers' remittances) in FY84 to 14% in FY85 and a peak of 18% in FY87, gradually declining thereafter. However, when obligations to the IMF are included, the debt service ratio for FY85 is estimated at about 20%, rising to between 20-25% during FY86 and FY87. The debt service ratio is forecast to decline thereafter, as food debts are repaid, to about 15-17% by FY90. The Bank Group's share of Bangladesh's debt servicing obligations will remain modest over this period, rising from 8.5% in FY84 to 8.9Z in FY86. The Bank Group's share of total debt outstanding and disbursed is projected to increase from about 30% in FY84 to about 35% in FY86.

Development Planning and Policy Issues

12. Although the Second Five Year Plan period (FY81-85) is drawing to a close, the Government's development strategy continues to be largely based on the priorities outlined in the Plan. The priority development objectives are: (a) reducing population growth from the present rate of 2.6% per annum; (b) achieving foodgrain self-sufficiency, (c) eliminating mass illiteracy; and (d) accelerating domestic energy development. IDA has assisted the Government in preparing the Medium-Term Foodgrain Production Plan that aims at increasing foodgrain production. With appropriate producer incentive, -5-

resources to provide needed inputs to farmers, and an expanded role for the private sector in the provision and servicing of modern agricultural imple- ments and inputs, foodgrain self-sufficiency could be achieved by the end of the decade. Given Bangladesh's high illiteracy rate (74%), the Plan's emphasis on primary education is well founded; under the Plan the objective of achieving universal primary education has been adopted. Prospects for achieving the objectives of educational expansion and improved foodgrain availability would be improved by success in reducing the population growth rate; this will require more determined efforts than have been made thus far, especially with regard to birth control efforts which have suffered from poor implementationand have had only limited success. The Government has recently taken steps to coordinate its birth control activities and to strengthen training programs for field staff.

13. Early development of the country's energy resources, particularly natural gas, is very important since imported petroleum at present preempts about three-quarters of merchandise export earnings. Since the required investments are likely to be capital-intensive and lumpy, they need to be properly planned under a phased priority program. The Government is now endeavoring, with Asian Development Bank (ADB)/United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) assistance, to formulate an appropriate energy sector investment program. The implementation of appropriate energy conservation measures and the setting of energy prices at economically efficient levels will also be critical to the success of the energy development program.

14. There is an urgent need to address the growing problems of rural poverty and unemployment. Fifty percent of the rural population is function- ally landless, and the employment situation has deteriorated significantly since the 1970s, with only 70% of new entrants to the labor force finding gainful employment. Increased foodgrain production alone will not suffice to resolve the unemployment and income problems, in view of the large projected growth of the work force. Measures must be taken simultaneously, therefore, to develop other sectors, such as fisheries, livestock, forestry and non- foodgrain crops, and to strengthen the industrial sector -- especially small- scale and cottage industries -- so that incomes generated in one subsector will generate effective demand for the output of others.

15. As noted in paragraph 6, the Government's New Industrial Policy has given a greater role to the private sector in industrial development, increased the incentives for export industries, and liberalized the import regime. However, there remains an urgent need to strengthen the development finance institutions, whose financial structure has been undermined by an increasing problem of debt arrears, and to rationalize industrial incentives. The Government is now examining the future role of the development finance institutionsin the light of recent consultants' studies. An ongoing program of IDA-financed studies is expected to lead to a program of action for the rationalization of a broad range of trade and industrial policies. -6-

16. The Government is now preparing its Third Five Year Plan (FY86-90). While the development priorities are not likely to change significantly from those incorporated into the Second Five Year Plan, the size of the future public investment program will need to be set at a level consistent with a realistic assessment of prospective external and domestic financial resources. As external assistance will continue to be severely constrained, there is a clear need for a sustained and intensive domestic resource mobi- lization effort to raise tax revenues, increase the level of cost recovery, reduce subsidies, and improve the financial performance of public enterprises. In the medium term, the tax base will have to be broadened to reduce its present dependence on import duties, thereby improving the elas- ticity of the tax system.

17. Realization of the Government's development objectives will also require significant improvements in development administration. There is a critical need to strengthen project implementation, streamline administrative procedures, and improve decision-making processes. Recognizing that local government bodies can play an effective role in the development effort, the Government has decided to decentralize a number of planning and administrative functions to the upgraded Upazila (Sub-District) level. The implementation and impact of this policy will need to be closely monitored.

PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN BANGLADESH

18. Cumulative Bank Group commitments to Bangladesh total US$2,977.40 million. This figure includes reactivation of eleven credits (US$154.41 million) made to Pakistan before 1971 and a consolidation loan (US$54.90 million) and a consolidation credit (US$37.45million) approved in 1975 to cover liabilities arising from projects completed prior to independence. In addition to these, the Bank has approved eighty new credits since Bangladesh became a member in 1972. In terms of total commitments, approximately 23.6% of IDA lending has been for agriculture, irrigation and rural development; 11.9% for industry; 10.6% for energy; 7.2% for transoortation and telecommunications;7.7% for education and technical assistance; 2.2Z for urban infrastructure; 1.6% for population control; and 35.2% for imports program support. Apart from increased emphasis on energy development, the composition of IDA lending over the next several years is not expected to change markedly. On June 18, 1976, Bangladesh became a member of IFC and three investments have been approved to date.

19. IDA's country assistance strategy is designed to support the Government's priority development objectives set out in the Second Five Year Plan and summarized in paragraph 12 above. IDA's lending has emphasized agriculture, with particular importance attached to increasing food production through augmenting the supply of essential inputs such as irrigation equipment, fertilizer and improved seeds, the development of extension services, research programs and rural cooperatives, the provision of agricul- -7-

tural credit, and the promotion of input and output pricing policies that allow adequate incentives to farmers to increase production. IDA has also supported the Government's efforts to encourage greater private sector participation in the supply and distribution of agricultural inputs. IDA's lending program will place increasing emphasis on agricultural diversifica- tion through increased production of fish, livestock, and forestry products.

20. An inadequate supply of energy is one of the major constraints to economic growth in Bangladesh. IDA's lending for power and gas investments is designed to expand the use of natural gas in substitution for-imported oil, promote conservation measures and more efficient energy use, and encourage further gas and oil exploration. IDA is also financing projects to expand the country's rural electrification system and power generation and transmission capabilities.

21. In the education sector, IDA's lending strategy focuses on two areas -- primary education and skills development. Lending for primary education supports the national goals of achieving universal primary education and reducing illiteracy, expanding access to education, and upgrading quality. Projects for vocational and technical education promote the training of craftsmen, technicians, and engineers.

22. In order to alleviate the severe economic and social pressures created by the extremely high population density and the continuing population increase, IDA, together with other donors, is assisting the Government in implementing an accelerated family planning program. With Bangladesh's urban population expected to increase from about 16 to 18 million in 1985 to between 35 to 40 million by the year 2000, future IDA activities will also help the Government to address the problem of providing low-cost shelter and infrastructure services to the urban poor; IDA is already financing water and sanitation improvements in Chittagong and Dhaka.

23. To achieve a higher and sustained level of growth, provide productive employment for a rapidly growing work force, and improve the country's external trade and payments position on a sustained basis, industry will need to play a more pivotal role in the economy. IDA's lending program seeks to assist the Government in: (a) increasing efficiency in public sector enterprises; (b) reforming trade, industrial, and financial policies; (c) strengthening existing financial institutions; (d) establishing export development programs; and (e) promoting rural and small-scale industries. In addition to assistance under program credits (see paragraph 25), IDA has supported projects to increase fertilizer production, rehabilitate the jute and textile industries, strengthen the development finance institutions, and promote small-scale industries.

24. Because of the importance of river transport in this deltaic country, in the transport sector, IDA has focused on the development of the inland water transport system. The road network in Bangladesh is extensive, but the roads are in poor condition and are inadequately maintained. IDA's future -8-

lending program will concentrate primarily on maintaining and upgrading existing roads.

25. Because of the urgent need for sustained transfer of substantial financial resources, the assistance strategy for Bangladesh provides for a significant proportion of annual lending to be in the form of program credits. In addition to providing much-needed foreign exchange and local counterpart financial support, annual program credits have provided a useful vehicle for addressing a wide range of sectoral and macro-economic issues. Due to Bangladesh's savings/investment gap, IDA credits for project financing continue to cover all foreign exchange costs and a significant portion of local currency expenditures. Given the severe limits on external concession- ary assistance, IDA has emphasized the need for Government to mobilize more domestic financial resources and to utilize these resources more efficiently. IDA is promoting Covernment policies to set public utility prices at economically efficient levels, to mobilize domestic financial resources, and to improve the efficiency of public sector institutions.

26. Project implementation is hampered not only by a shortage of domestic financial resources, but also by weak development institutions, limited managerial capacity, and cumbersome bureaucratic procedures. IDA, in consultation with other donors, is engaged in a continuing dialogue with the Government on ways to improve project implementation. In support of broader institutional reform, IDA is: (a) providing technical assistance for project preparation and implementation; (b) financing projects to train civil ser- vants and other managerial and technical personnel; and (c) encouraging the Government to introduce administrative reforms and improve staff salaries and incentives. Despite progress in implementing reforms, which include administrative reorganization and improvements in financial planning and budgetary procedures, adequate institutional capabilities can be achieved only over the long term. IDA chairs the annual Bangladesh Aid Group meeting which provides a forum for aid donor consultation and IDA's Resident Representative chairs regularly scheduled donor meetings in Dhaka to exchange views on policy issues, project implementation, and aid coordination.

PART III - THE FLOOD PROBLEM

27. Most of Bangladesh is a low-lying alluvial plain subject to heavy monsoon rainfall. The southern half of the country is the joint delta of three of the world's largest rivers: the Brahmaputra entering Bangladesh from the north; the Ganges entering from the west; and the Meghna from the northeast. This system constitutes a network of rivers, streams and canals totaling about 15,000 miles in length and receiving runoff from a catchment area of about 400 million acres of which only about 7.5% lie in Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra and Ganges have an enormous joint discharge and deposit huge sediment loads amounting to about 2.4 billion tons annuaLly. A fourth river system lies in the Southeastern Hill basin with a catchment covering the limited hilly areas of Bangladesh and extending into neighboring India. Rivers and streams in this basin are highly susceptible to flash flooding. -9-

28. Flows in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers are derived from snowmelt in the Himalayas and rainfall in their lower catchment areas. The Brahmaputra's snowmelt flood peak is in June but the river's heaviest annual flood, caused by rainfall runoff combined with snowmelt, is usually in July, August, and early September. Flood peaks of the Ganges follow a similar pattern. River banks downstream from the juncture of the two rivers overflow from mid-July until the end of September. It is during this period that major flooding is most likely to occur.

29. Annual rainfall in Bangladesh ranges from 50 inches in the southwest and west to more than 200 inches in the northeast. About 80Z of the rainfall occurs during the five-month monsoon season, May through September. There are very large variations in rainfall from year to year. Periods of highly intensive rainfall result in flash flooding of the smaller rivers and general flooding due to the inability of natural drainage systems to cope with the excess water. High ocean tides and cyclones are also major causes of floods in southernicoastal areas and can result in heavy property damage and loss of life. About one-sixth of the country is flooded every year to depths of 3-12 feet and about one-half of the country is vulnerable to annual flooding in excess of one foot.

30. Routine flooding during normal years yields benefits, including the recharge of aquifers and improvement of soil fertility through silt deposition. Systems of farming that take advantage of and are dependent upon annual flooding have evolved in routinely flooded areas. However, in years of heavy flooding, major crop losses and substantial damage to agricultural infrastructureoccur.

31. Flood Protection. The World Bank conducted a "Land and Water Resources Sector Study of Bangladesh" in 1972 which concluded that embankments and channel improvements were the only practical methods of preventing flooding by the major rivers. The report noted that, while storage reser- voirs upstream could be effective, they would have to be very large and that the only suitable sites for them were outsids Bangladesh. Such a solution will become practical only after an agreement has been reached between the riparians of these rivers.

32. Most flood protection works in Bangladesh, other than those protecting towns and specific structures, are components of multi-purpose agricultural development projects that entail the empoldering of the area to be protected and the installation of drains, sluices and pumping plants for drainage and dry season irrigation. The first Bank-financed projects of this type, initiated in the 1960s, were located on or close to the major rivers where flooding was greatest in terms of depth and velocity. An example is the Chandpur Irrigation Project (Cr.340-BD). These projects were relatively expensive, costing approximately US$l,000 per acre protected (1978 prices), and generally took a long time to prepare, design and complete. Subsequently, the Government and the Bank examined, in the context of a -10-

"Joint Review of the Bangladesh Water Development Board," existing flood protection policy and possible alternatives. The report published in 1979, concluded that, while projects of the Chandpur type were successful and returns on investment were satisfactory, the cost of providing protective embankments and other infrastructure in areas susceptible to strong river attack and deep flooding was not the most cost effective approach to flood control. The review report recommended that priority should be given instead to the protection of areas flooded to shallower depths. In such areas, costs per acre protected were appreciably less, about US$200, because embankments were lower, pumped drainage was often not required, and the project could be completed more quickly, thereby benefiting more land and more people per unit of investment. This recommendation was accepted by the Government. The Bank has financed four such projects and a fifth is scheduled for Board considera- tion in the near future.l/

33. Flood protection is again being reviewed under a National Water Master Plan Project, financed by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and executed by the Bank, which is examining all aspects of water demand, supply and control in Bangladesh. A water Master Planning Organization has been established in the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development, and Flood Control which is developing mathematical models to assist in the planning, design and operation of the major flood protection projects to be included in the Water Master Plan which is scheduled for completion in mid-1985.

34. Flood Warning System. UNDP and the World Meteorological Organization are providing assistance to Bangladesh through the Development of Flood Forecasting and Warning System Project (BCD/76/7006),under which a Flood Forecasting and Warning Center has been established to monitor rainfall and water levels using radioed reports from a network of 35 (shortly to be increased to 45) stations. During the flood season, the Center issues daily bulletins, accompanied by forecasts for the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers and flash flood-prone rivers in the southeast, that provide key data for the organization of the Government's response to flood disasters.

35. Flood Disaster Response. In the event of a fluod disaster all agencies of the Government, including the armed services, are mobilized. The Ministry of Relief is the key agency and its Minister chairs a Central Coordination Committee on Flood Relief and Rehabilitation made up of the secretaries of other appropriate ministries. The committee decides on the response and relief policies to be followed and allocates responsibilities. Monitoring the implementation of these policies is usually undertaken by an

1/ The four projects are Drainage and Flood Control I and II (Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD), Small-Scale Drainage and Flood Control (Credit 955-BD), and Water Development Board (WDB) Small Schemes (Credit 1467-BD) Projects; the proposed project is Flood Control and Drainage III. -11-

operations center located in Dhaka and supported with communications equipment and personnel provided by the armed forces. First priority is given to essential evacuation, followed by food distribution, restoration of communications, provision of shelter and clothing, cash assistance, and finally, as floods recede, programs of preventive medicine and agricultural rehabilitation.

36. The response system works generally well, but lacks an effective mechanism to strengthen threatened embankments and other flood protection structures. Most rural communities can provide abundant labor, but lack basic materials, such as sand bags, that are needed for defensive works. Therefore, significant flooding results from the breaching of embankments and failure of structures whose integrity might have been maintained had the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), or the local administration, had the facility to respond promptly with direction and essential materials. Under the proposed project, a flood preparedness study would investigate possible mechanisms for a more rapid response to flooding (paragraph 62).

37. The 1984 Floods. Nineteen eighty-four was the worst flood year in Bangladesh since 1974 when the economy was devastated by floods covering an estimated 20,277 square miles. The floods of 1984 were caused by a combination of repeated flash floods and the blockage of drainage systems by record high rainfall in the central, southern, southeastern and northern parts of the country. The situation was exacerbated by the rise of all major rivers to above danger level by the end of July and the breaching of flood protection embankments at a number of points, especially along the right bank of the Brahmaputra. The duration of the floods was particularly long, continuing from May through September.

38. Extensive flooding was experienced in three phases. In May, record high rainfall caused widespread flash flooding in the Meghna Basin, in particular, in the Comilla, Brahmanbaria, Sylhet, Moulvi Bazar, Habiganj, and Feni districts. Embankments of the Gumti, Khowai, and other smaller rivers were breached. The embankment protecting Moulvi Bazar town was overtopped on Kay 15 and the town was inundated. The second phase of flooding began in the first half of June, when exceptionally heavy rainfall caused widespread floods through the center of the country. Heavy rainfall later in June caused flooding in the Rangpur, Sylhet, and Comilla districts. Continuing heavy rainfall in July, coupled with high flood levels in the Brahmaputra and Ganges, caused extensive floods and crop and infrastructuredamage in a number of additional areas of the country. A third phase of serious river flooding, a consequence of high flows reinforced by heavy rainfall in the Brahmaputra,Ganges, and Meghna basins, occurred in mid-September in the Pabna, Sirajganj, Kurigram, Cailbandha, Tangail, Jamalpur, Netroknoa, Sunamganj, and Sylhet districts. Many districts were hit by two, if not by all of the three distinct phases of flooding. In some areas this prevented any sort of agricultural production during the 1984 monsoon season. -12-

39. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center estimated that about 10,890 sq. miles (seven million acres) were affected by the fLoods in addition to the some 6 million acres that are routinely flooded each year. Of 35 rain gauging stations, total rainfall was above normal at 32 stations in the Hay-July period and at 21 stations for the August-September period. Record rainfalls were recorded at 11 stations in May and at 9 stations in June. More than 300 people drowned during the floods and losses of livestock, mostly due to lack of fodder in the flooded areas, were high. The major economic losses resulted from crop and infrastructural damage.

40. Crop Damage. Crops on nearly three million acres were reported as destroyed, damaged severely or not planted because of flood water. The cotton crop was severely affected, with only 21,000 bales harvested as compared to 60,000 bales in 1983. Sugarcane losses of an estimated 1.2 miLlion metric tons (MT) of cane, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of sugar, necessitated imports to meet domestic demand. Considerable, but still unquantified, damage was done to the tobacco crop. Most significant, however, were losses in jute and rice production. Because of high jute prices in 1982 and 1983 there was a major expansion in jute plantings and jute planting intentions in 1984. Presupposing a "normal" growing year, a crop of 5.4 million bales was predicted by the Ministry of Agriculture. However, only some 4.5 million bales are estimated to have been produced indicating a loss of about 17%. Substantial losses occurred in all three principal rice crops -- boro, aus and aman. In the case of boro, the almost- mature crop was washed away on an estimated 227,000 acres, with a loss calculated at the equivalent of 331,000 MT of clean rice.1/ Aus, planted in April-Hay, was destroyed on about 840,000 acres, with a loss of 308,000 MT. Aus Losses would have been higher had it not been possible to replant some of the area destroyed by flash flooding in the eastern areas. About 1.66 million acres of aman (broadcast and transplanted), the main monsoon season crop, were washed out or flooded too deeply to plant, with a loss of some 875,000 MT of clean rice. Total rice lost as a consequence of the 1984 floods is estimated at 1.51 million MT. Based on production trends in recent years (an annual growth of 2.8% since 1979) and assuming a normal growing season, the crop in 1984 probably would have been about 14.9 million MT. By deducting from this figure the 14.1 million MT actually produced, a net loss 800,000 MT of rice is obtained. In evaluating the financial losses caused by the floods this latter figure is emplo;ed.

41. InfrastructureDamage. Following recession of the floods in late September, the Roads and Highways Derartment (RHD), BWDB, the Inland Water Transport Authority (IWTA), and the hioistry of Local Government, Rural

1/ All foodgrain loss estimates in this report are based on field surveys conducted by the United States Agency for International Development. Very similar conclusions have been reached by the Ministry of AgricuLture and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. -13-

Development and Cooperatives' Local Government Division (LGD), which is responsible for infrastructure managed by local government authorities, prepared estimates of infrastructural damage. A summary of the physical damage reported by RHD, BWDB, IWTA and LGD is set out below.

Roads and Highways Department

Eimbankmentswashed away (mi) 2.78 Bridges and culverts collapsed (no.) 93 Embankments badly damaged (mi) 152.75 Bridges and culverts affected by Pavement severely damaged (mi) 127.52 failure of wing walls, etc. (no.) 111 Pavement partially damaged (mi) 275.30 Ferry service approaches damaged (no.) 13

Water Development Board

Embankment washed away (mi) 100.88 Flap gates lost (no.) 30 Structures to be replaced (no.) 218 Town protection works damaged (sites) 15

Inland Water Transport Authority

Pontoons lost or badly damaged (no.) 28 Work boats lost (no.) 3 Buoys and beacons lost (no.) 30 Gauges lost (no.) 19 Jetties lost or badly damaged (no.) 25 Dredger pipe lost (ft) 1,000

Local Government Division District Councils Municipalities

Pavement damaged (mi) 100 Pavement damaged (mi) 500 Bridges and culverts collapsed Bridges or culverts collapsed or badly damaged (ft) 1,250 or badly damaged (ft) 6,250

42. The extensive damage to roads and highways and their appurtenant structures reflects not only the problems of constructing and maintaining a road network in a deltaic area but also with standards of construction and maintenance. The road network is developed and managed by two agencies, RHD and LGD. The former is responsible for the planning, design, construction and maintenance of the national road network which consists of 1,724 miles of national highways (18 feet-22 feet wide pavement) of which 1,569 miles are paved, 99 miles partially paved and the remainder earth or gravel; 758 miles of regional highways (12 feet-18 feet pavement) of which 615 miles are paved, 107 miles partially paved and the remaining 36 miles earthen; and 1,687 miles of feeder roads (12 feet pavement) of which 643 miles are fully paved. Feeder roads connect upazila headquarters and commercial centers with regional and national highways. Local district and municipal governments, with the guidance and assistance of LGD are entrusted with similar responsibilities for other tertiary and municipality roads. The LCD system extends to 16,216 miles, of which onLy 3,983 are paved. -14-

43. Bangladesh has under 11 miles of all-weather roads per 100 square miles (compared to close to 25 miles in India) and of these nearly 30% are urban roads. The low proportion of paved all-weather roads and the high proportion of unpaved roads is a consequence of the high costs of road construction and maintenance in Bangladesh. This results from the poor engineering characteristics of soils; the flat nature of the terrain which, with periodic flooding, makes high embankments necessary; the need for many bridges and culverts; and the scarcity and high cost of construction materials. In some cases these problems are compounded by less than satisfactory design, construction and quality control. A major issue in the road sub-sector is the overall scarcity of financial resources and a bias in favor of new road construction rather than much needed maintenance. Following a review by consultants financed under the Fourth Technical Assistance Project (Credit 622-BD), IDA is in the process of assisting the Government in preparing a road maintenance and rehabilitation project which would finance both remedial works and the establishment of appropriate maintenance programs for the RHD network; the Asian Development Bank is considering a similar operation. A feeder road and markets project which has been proposed with similar objectives is currently under preparation for possible financing by IDA.

44. The heavy damage to IWTA installations in 1984 also reflects the problems of establishing and maintaining infrastructure in a difficult physical environment. IWTA is responsible for developing and controlling navigable waterways which extend to 5,200 miles in the monsoon, and to 3,200 miles in the dry season. Siltation, highly variable water volumes, the shifting of river courses, and bank erosion make the maintenance of landing stages, navigational aids and ferry crossings a consistent problem. During heavy flooding, as in 1984, the protection of facilities is extremely difficult. This situation will not be corrected until the major rivers are controlled by barrages and embankments, an objective that will be reached only in the longer term.

45. BWDB infrastructure such as flood embankments, town protection works, drains, and irrigation canals are naturally highly susceptible to damage in high flood years. As in the case of RHD and LCD, BWDB suffers severe financial constraints and expenditures on the maintenance of its infrastructure are inadequate. A project designed to improve BWDB's maintenance programs is being prepared.

46. Costs of the 1984 Floods. Based on crop losses, equipment and infrastructuraldamage, and the relief and rehabilitation activities undertaken by the Government, a broad estimate of the cost of the floods to the economy has been established at roughly US$378 million. About US$109 million has been absorbed by the Government budget and about US$207 million by farmers and others as net losses. Some US$62 million of public infrastructural repairs remain to be financed. -15-

Table 3.1: ECONOMIC COSTS OF 1984 FLOODS

US$ MiLlion Equivalent Crop Losses (net) Rice 208 Jute 73 Cotton 11 Sugar 24 Sub-total 316

Infrastructureand Equipment National roads 20 Irrigation, drainage and flood control 25 Water Transport Authority equipment 2 Local government infrastructure 15 Sub-total 62

TOTAL 378

Table 3.2: BUDGETARY COSTS OF 1984 FLDODS

US$ Million Equivalent Relief Operations Foodgrains 82 Cash 4 Sub-total 86

Agriculture Rehabilitation Program /a Interest payments forgiven /b 17 Farm inputs Ic 6

Sub-total 23

TOTAL 109

/a Share of production inputs for transplanted aman that is included in total rice production of 14.1 million MT (see paragraphs 49 & 50).

lb See paragraph 50 for details.

/c See paragraph 49 for details. -16-

47. Government Response to the 1984 Flood Disaster. Since the dis- astrous floods of 1974, in which approximately 2,000 people drowned and untold thousands perished as a result of the ensuing famine, the national infrastructurehas been expanded and improved, much experience in mounting and monitoring relief activities has been gained, flood and weather monitoring and forecasting have been developed to satisfactory standards, and agricultural productivity has increased significantly. As a result, and due to the prompt Government response described below, the very serious flooding of 1984 resulted in far fewer deaths from drowning (approximately 300) and in few, if any, deaths from starvation.

48. Immediately after the first abnormally heavy rains in May the Government established a flood operations center in Dhaka. Donors were contacted in late May when it became clear that boro and aus Losses would be heavy and that foodgrain stocks and donor-financed foodgrain import commitments would be inadequate to meet demand. Without waiting for what proved to be a modest donor response, the Government committed itself to the commercial purchase of 1.2 million MT of foodgrains in FY85 at a cost of about US$242 million equivalent, compared to Government-financedannual average foodgrain imports of 0.57 million MT, costing about US$94 million, during each of the three previous years. Distribution of foodgrains to flood-affected areas was carefully monitored and managed, and there were few reports of foodgrain supply problems. While grain prices increased as a consequence of the floods, the increases more or less followed the normal seasonal pattern and, in fact, began to decline much earlier than usuaL, reflecting a good supply situation. Relief provided to flood-affected areas included food, clothing, medicines, and cash. With the recession of the floods the Government mounted a program of preventive medicine and agricultural rehabilitation to provide farmers with assistance to replant their land.

49. The agricultural rehabilitation program was conducted in two phases: the first in the period May 15-August 31, covering areas damaged in the first two cycles of flooding, and the second between September 10 and 29 following the final flooding of the year. Government assistance to individual farmers was limited to a grant of the seed and half the fertilizer required for 1 bigha (0.33 acre) of HYV aman, boro, wheat or oilseeds; or the seed alone needed for a 0.5 bigha of vegetables. Farmers were required to provide all other inputs from their own resources although special credit programs were introduced to assist them (see paragraph 50). It is reported that some 935,000 farmers benefited from grants and that 321,000 acres, or about 10% of the acreage seriously damaged or destroyed, were replanted with crops with a potential value of about US$50 million equivalent. Government grants of seed and fertilizer totaled Tk 164 million (US$6.3 million).

50. Special credit programs were provided to farmers in flood-affected areas. The final repayment date for seasonal loans made for the aman crop, which were due in 1984, were rescheduled to January 31, 1985; repayment of loans made for 1984 boro, aus, broadcast aman and jute crops was rescheduled -17-

to 12 months from the normal repayment date. Interest and penalty charges were forgiven for this period. Similar arrangements were made for cattle and pond fisheries. Interest forgiven through these concessions is estimated to amount to about Tk 440 miLlion or (US$17 million equivalent). An unfortunate feature of this interest relief and rescheduling program is that it was extended to the whole country and, in areas unaffected by flood, may adversely affect efforts to develop efficient agricultural credit programs. The 1984 flood coincided with the introduction by the Government of a system of land mortgage loans. Under this system, farmers with less than 5 bigha of land (1.66 acre), excluding the homestead, are eligible for mortgages at the rate of Tk 1,500 per bigha with a maximum loan of Tk 3,500 per farmer, The purpose of these loans is to prevent the distress sale of land that, in previous times of disaster, was for many the only means of survival. About Tk 1,006 million were allotted for this purpose. Currently, banks par- ticipating in the scheme have disbursed Tk 316 million (US$12.2 million equivalent).

51. Previous Bank-Financed Disaster Relief Projects in Bangladesh. On November 12 and 13, 1970 a cyclone struck coastal districts of what was then the Eastern Province of Pakistan. Some 170,000 people were reported killed, although unofficial estimates put the figure as high as 500,000. About 5,400 sq. miles were affected with an estimated 400,000 houses, 3,500 educational institutions, and 20,000 fishing boats destroyed. Thousands of livestock were killed and more than 0.5 million tons of crops, mainly foodgrains, were estimated as lost. IDA Credit 228-PAK assisted in the financing of a recovery program. However, due to the war of liberation, the reconstruction program made little progress and there were no disbursements under the original credit. Following independence, the Government of Bangladesh requested reactivation of the credit and the project was re-appraised in July 1972. The resulting Credit 339-BD (US$25.0 million), the Coastal Area Rehabilitation and Cyclone Protection Project, was signed on October 18, 1972. Under the Credit eight categories of investments in the devastated area were financed: telecommunications,primary roads, feeder roads, inland water transport, coastal fisheries, cyclone shelters, early warning system for cyclones, and technical assistance. All components were to be completed by July 1975.

52. A Project Performance Audit Report (PPAR) on Credit 339-BD, dated May 15, 1984, stated that project objectives were only partly achieved due to cost escalations, slow procurement, inadequate supervision, and extremely difficult access to the area. However, the PPAR concluded that, even though fewer facilities were provided than initially foreseen, project facilities, if well utilized and maintained, would ensure access to the coastal areas and provide security to the people living there in case of future destructive cyclones. The project took seven and a half years to complete instead of the three years foreseen at appraisal. The complex organization of the project is identified in the PPAR as a principal reason for slow implementation. While the PPAR recognizes the unavoidable weaknesses of the individual implementingagencies that had newly emerged after the trauma of the war of -18-

liberation, it points out that problems were compounded by assignment of overall responsibility for the coordination of project activities to a Reconstruction Board that had no real authority over the agencies implementing sub-projects. The PPAR concluded that the monitoring and implementation of the project would have been facilitated by the execution of separate sub-credit agreements with the agencies responsible for individual components. Alternatively, the PPAR suggested that Reconstruction Board or another Project Management Unit could have been made directly responsible for all aspects of project implementation. Since signature of Credit 339-BD, the departments and agencies of the Government of Bangladesh have gained experience and competence and the general infrastructure of the country has substantially improved. Therefore, implementationof the proposed project would be carried out individually by the four directly concerned agencies of the Government (paragraphs 63-67). There would be no central coordinating mechanism, because there would be no overriding technical or economic reason to integrate the repair and rehabilitation works which would be undertaken under the proposed project.

53. The PPAR also drew attention to problems of operation and maintenance (OEM) of investments financed under Credit 339-BD. IDA has drawn the Government's attention to the O&M problem; the need for more adequate budgetary allocations for O&M in a number of major sectors has been the subject of an ongoing dialogue with the Government, most recently in the context of a proposed Imports Program Credit under which IDA is seeking to reach specific understandings with Government with respect to required budgetary allocation for O&M. Two projects now under preparation, a Road Rehabilitation Project and a Water Development Board Systems Rehabilitation Project, would address the O&M problem as it concerns the highways, irrigation and drainage and flood control programs. More than 75Z of investments under the proposed Flood Rehabilitation Project would be executed and managed by agencies whose future O&M performance would be subject to conditions attached to the two above-mentioned projects being prepared. The Government, however, would ensure that adequate funds would be allocated for the operation and maintenance of rehabilitation works under the proposed project (Section 3.01(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement).

PART IV - THE PROJECT

54. The proposed project was appraised by the staff of the Bank's Resident Mission in Bangladesh and headquarters staff in the period December 1984-February 1985. Given the nature of the project, a staff appraisal report has not been prepared. Negotiations were held in Washington March 27 through April 2, 1985. The Government delegation was led by Mr. Mohammed Ali, Secretary, Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control. -19-

Project Components

55. The project would comprise priority components of the Government's program to rehabilitate fLood damaged infrastructure and would include:

(a) rehabilitation of irrigation, drainage and flood protection works;

(b) rehabilitation of roads and associated structures;

td) replacement of navigational aids and water-gauging equipment;

(e) repair of river landing jetties; and

(f) provision of technical services by local and foreign consultants.

56. While some critical works, such as flood protection embankments, would be completed before the onset of the next flood season, a large proportion of reconstruction activity would take place in the 1985/86 dry season. The project would be implemented by four agencies: the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), the Roads and Highways Department (RHD), the Inland Water Transport Authority (IWTA) and the Local Government Division (LGD) of the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives. The four implementing agencies would ensure that rehabilitation works financed under the Project are executed in accordance with design standards and construction specifications satisfactory to IDA (Section 3.04 of the draft DeveLopment Credit Agreement). A more detailed description of project components follows.

57. Rehabilitation of irrigation, drainage, and flood protection works (BWDB), (Annex 4, Table 1). Restoration works carried out by BWDB would include compacted filling of embankment breaches; the resectioning, strengthening and protecting of damaged embankments; and the retirement of embankments where the existing location is no longer tenable. Damaged or destroyed water control structures would be repaired and replaced. Particular attention would be paid to retaining walls and other protective works, and damaged or lost flap gates would be replaced. Town protection works maintained by BWDB would be eligible for reconstructionunder the project (Annex 4, Table 2). Such protective works would include groynes, sheet piling, brick mattressing, boulder and cement block revetments, and flood walls.

58. Restoration work on roads and associated structures (RHD and LGD), (Annex 4, Tables 3 and 4). Road works financed under the project and carried out by RHD and LGD would include compacted filling of embankment breaches; -20-

the resectioning, strengthening, and protecting of eroded embankments; and reconstruction of damaged culverts, bridges, and retaining walls. Road surface works would include the restoration of road shoulders and the repair and strengthening of damaged pavement. Additional drainage and culverts would be provided in reconstructed and strengthened embankments and where otherwise appropriate.

59. Procurement of road construction equipment (RHD), (Annex 4, Table 5). RHD would require additional equipment to carry out its rehabilitation program. In order to provide for the satisfactory compacting of embankments for road construction self-propelled compactors would be procured under the project. Rollers would be procured for pavement work. This equipment would be leased to contractors by RHD. Portable steel bridging is used extensively in Bangladesh, both as semi-permanent bridging and for temporary detours required in the course of bridge reconstruction and repairs; approximately 2,630 ft. of such portable bridging would be procured by RHD for these purposes.

60. Replacement of naviRational aids and other equipment (IWTA), (Annex 4, Table 6). River flooding washed away a number of IWTA navigational aids and destroyed or severely damaged critical water gauging equipment. Under the project, IWTA would procure and replace steel lantern buoys, shore beacons, markers, mooring gear, dredger pipe, gauges, and recorders as well as two work boats and a 47-foot tug boat lost in the floods.

61. Reconstruction of ietties (IWTA), (Annex 4, Table 6). In addition to being responsible for the maintenance of inland waterways, IWTA maintains a large number of jetties and landing stages. Eight new steel replacement pontoons of varying sizes would be procured under the project and another 20 steel pontoons damaged in the flood would be repaired. 26 jetties would be repaired or reconstructed under the project; all but two of these jetties are of wooden construction.

62. Provision of technical services (BWDB. RHD. LGD), (Annex 5, Appendices 1-4). Technical services financed under the project would include:

(i) Consultants employed in checking the Government's cost estimates of damage and reconstruction and whose findings have contributed to the preparation of the project. Consultants' work started in December 1984 and an estimated 40 man months of local consulting services and 4 man months of foreign consulting services have been or would be provided and financed, partly retroactively, for these purposes.

(ii) Consultant services required by RHD, BWDB and LGD to assist the supervision of project activities. Consultants' responsibilities would include: (a) checking that all sub-projects selected for financing under the credit are consistent with the -21-

criteria agreed between the Government and IDA, (b) approval of the design of project structures, preparation of detailed design where necessary, and preparation of plans and estimates and of a program for implementation, (c) monitoring the quality and progress of project works, Cd) preparing progress and completion reports on the basis of which reimbursement would be made by IDA, and (e) contributing to the production of the Project Completion Report that the Government would prepare for the project. Levels of consultants' responsibility for different project activities would range from checking of engineering surveys and subsequent detailed design to periodic supervision during construction. It is estimated that RHD, BWDB, and LGD would require 47 man-months of foreign consultant services (15, 16, and 16 respectively) and 1046 man-months of local consultant services (416, 414, and 216 respectively). Some 20% of man- months required would be the services of mid-level engineers and above.

(iii) Consultant services to conduct a Flood Preparedness Study which would assess the Government's capability to respond effectively to flood attack and to prepare recommendations for appropriate arrangements to improve flood response procedures. Some 18 man-months of foreign and 36 man-months of local consultant services would be required for this work. The findings of this study would be furnished to IDA by December 31, 1986 and thereafter the agreed recommendations implemented (Section 3.05 of the Development Credit Agreement).

The qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment of consultants under the project would be satisfactory to IDA (Schedule 3, Section II of the draft Development Credit Agreement).

Project Management

63. The project would be implemented by the four agencies, BWDB, RHD, LGD and IWTA. There would be no need for coordination at a higher level (paragraph 52). Each agency's basic programs have been reviewed and approved by the Central Coordination Committee on Flood Relief and Rehabilitation, by the departmental project evaluation committees of the ministries to which the agencies report, and by the Planning CommIssion.

64. BWDB would be responsible for reconstruction work under the project-s irrigation, drainage and flood control and protection component. BWDB is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Development and Flood Control and is managed by a Chairman and five board members responsible, respectively, for planning, implementation,operation and maintenance, finance, and administration. In the field, BWDB is organized under a geographic system of zones supervised by Chief Engineers, circles under SuperintendingEngineers and divisions under Executive -22-

Engineers who handle both new construction and the operation and maintenance of completed structures. Reconstruction of works would be the responsibility of Executive Engineers under the supervision of their circle Renior Engineer and zonal Chief Engineer. The responsibilities of Executive Engineers would include preparation of tender documents; selection of contractors and award of contracts; supply of construction equipment; construction supervision and quality control; implementationof works under force account; and accounting and detailed financial ccntrol. Design assistance, when required, would be provided by BWDB's central Design Directorate. The Member, Planning of BWDB would act as the principal contact of IDA for project matters.

65. Administration of the principal road network is the responsibility of RHD, a department of the Roads and Road Transport Division of the Ministry of Communications. RHD is responsible for road design, construction and maintenance and for the installation and operation of truck, car and pas- senger ferries. Its Chief Engineer is the chief executive. The field organization of RHD is similar to that of BWDB and under the project the Department s Executive Engineers would have primary day-to-day responsibility for reconstructionwork. The Additional Chief Engineer at RED headquarters has been designated as the principal contact with IDA for project-funded activities. Procurement of road construction equipment and portable bridging would be undertaken by the RHD's Central Tender Committee.

66. IWTA is an agency of the Ports, Shipping and Inland Water Transport Division of the Ministry of Communications, and is responsible for the development and control of inland water transport and waterways. Its functions include waterways and river conservancy, navigational regulations and aids, improvement of inland ports, and the preparation of regulations govern- ing inland water traffic. IWTA has a Board headed by a Chairman who serves as chief executive, with staff appointments, promotions, salaries and budget controlled by the Government. Project activities to be undertaken by IWTA have been specified and agreed with IDA. Procurement of equipment and materials, including pontoons would be handled centrally by IWTA's Purchase and Storage Department. Repair and replacement of pontoons would be implemented by the Conservancy and Pilotage Department, replacement of buoys and pontoons by the Mechanical and Marine Engineering Department and jetty repair by the Engineering Department. IWTA's Director of Planning would serve as liaison officer and principal contact with IDA for the execution of project- funded activities.

67. The restoration of flood damaged feeder and urban roads, whose maintenance is the responsibilityof district councils (zila parishads) and municipalities (pourashavas),would be executed by the Local Government Engineering Bureau (LGEB) of LGD which is headed by a Secretary. The country's 22 district councils and 78 municipalities have their own engineering departments which are funded by locally generated taxes and Government grants. Most districts have an Executive Engineer in charge of their engineering departments, but municipal engineers are usually of the lower sub-divisional engineer or more junior grades. Most districts and -23-

municipalities have received very limited funds and their physical infrastructuresare generally in poor condition. LGEB, which is in the course of reorganization,would require consultant assistance in the preparation of project works and its project supervision. The implementationof LGD work would be the responsibility of the engineers in charge of the districts or the municipalities concerned and would include tendering and awarding of contracts, supervision, payments to contractors and maintenance of accounts. Supervision would be by LGEB whose chief executive is the Engineering Adviser, who is supported by four superintendingengineers, a number of more junior engineers, a design cell, and other support staff. One of LGEB's superintending engineers would be appointed for IDA liaison.

Selection of Works for Reconstruction

68. Initial selection of BWDB and RHD works to be carried out under the project has been made by the agencies themselves. In the case of BWDB, consultants have spot checked the proposals and found them generally sound. Consultants have been employed by RHD to assist it in conducting a similar exercise. The RHD consultants are inspecting all sites included in the RHD proposed program, assessing the costs and feasibility of each, and then listing the sub-projects in an order of priority that takes into account the need of ensuring a balanced distribution of work through the five zones of RHD. Proposals for works to be financed under the project have been submitted to LGD by the districts and municipalities and a final list of priority projects is being prepared.

69. In the selection of project works the implementingagencies and their consultants would ensure that, inter alia, the works selected are consistent with criteria satisfactory to IDA (Section 3.02 and Schedule 5 of the draft Development Credit Agreement), as follows:

(a) damage to be repaired is:

(i) a consequence of the 1984 floods, or

(ii) damage which, if not repaired, will vitiate or seriously diminish the effectiveness of other flood damages being repaired under the project;

(b) reconstructionwork undertaken would restore structures to their original specifications or to sucb higher specificationsas may now be warranted to ensure its integrity over a reasonable life; and

Proposals for works involving expenditures of over US$500,000 and for all town protection works would be submitted to IDA for prior review and approval. IDA approvals for these proposals would be handled by the Bank's -24-

Resident Mission to Bangladesh with reference to headquarters as necessary. IDA has considered the international aspects of the project and is satisfied that the project would not be harmful to the interests of other riparians.

Proiect Costs

70. Total project costs are estimated at US$48.2 million with a foreign exchange component of US$13.0 million or 27% of total costs. Base costs of civil works to be carried out under the BWDB, RHD and IWTA components are based on October 1984 contract rates. In the case of RHD it has been assumed that approximately 72% (in terms of costs) of its proposed program of works (Annex 4, Table 3) would qualify for financing under the project. This assumption is made because RHD has already carried out a considerable amount of rehabilitation work that is temporary in nature or connected with non- flood induced damage and consequently would not qualify for financing under the Project. For BWDB it is assumed that its full program of rehabilitation works (Annex 4 Table 1) would qualify for project finance. The cost of civil works to be undertaken by LGD is treated as a lump sum item and a basic provision of US$6 million would be made. A similar arrangement has been made for town protection works (Annex 4, Table 2) to be carried out by BWDB and US$3 million would be provided for this purpose. For equipment and consultants, current prices and rates are used. Costs include a provision for price contingencies equivalent to 8.4% of the total base cost 1/ and a 10% physical contingency for all but the LGD civil works program and the town protection program. Project costs include taxes and duties estimated at about US$1.76 million, and the costs incurred by the four implementingatgen- cies in engineering and administration activities directly related to the project are estimated as 10% of base costs for project civil works.

1/ Assumes annual escalation of 10% for local costs of FY85 and FY86 and 5.7% and 8.5% for FY85 and FY86 in the case of foreign costs. -25-

Project Cost Estimates

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Foreign -----Tk million ------US$ million----- Exchange

Civil Works BWDB 238 80 318 9.14 3.07 12.21 25Z RHD 277 93 370 10.67 3.56 14.23 25Z IWTA 2 1 3 .09 .03 .12 - LGD 117 39 156 4.50 1.50 6.00 25%

Total Civil Works 634 213 847 24.40 8.16 32.56 25%

Road Construction Equipment 25 31 56 .96 1.19 2.15 56% IWTA Equipment 20 30 50 .77 1.15 1.92 60%

Total Equipment 45 61 106 1.73 2.34 4.07 57%

Consultants' Services Project Selection 2 1 3 .07 .05 .12 452 Project Supervision 18 14 32 .69 .54 1.23 45% Flood Preparedness Study 1 6 7 .05 .22 .27 81%

Total Consultants 21 21 42 .81 .81 1.62 502

Engineering and Administration 85 - 85 3.27 - 3.27

Total Base Cost 785 295 1,080 30.21 11.31 41.52 27X

Physical Contingencies 62 22 84 2.36 .87 3.23 27% Price Contingencies 70 21 91 2.69 .81 3.50 23%

Total Costs 917 338 1,255 35.26 12.99 48.25 27%

Project Financing

71. The proposed IDA credit of US$30 million would cover about 65% of project costs, excluding duties and taxes estimated at US$1.8 million equivalent. The remaining US$18.23 million of project costs, including aLl taxes and duties, would be met by the Government and from two existing IDA credits, the First and Second Drainage and Flood Control Projects (864-BD and 1184-BD). Savings available under these two credits are US$6.8 million and US$4.0 million, respectively, and in each case BWDB is the project implement- -26-

ing agency. A brief summary of the status of the execution of these two projects is given in Annex 6. The Credit Agreements for these two projects would be modified to permit the use of these savings for flood rehabilitation purposes. Total IDA financing under the proposed Credit as well as savings from the on-going operations would amount to about 88Z of project costs net of duties and taxes. The proceeds of the IDA credits and the Government's contributionof about US$7.4 million equivalent would be passed on to the four implementingagencies through direct budgetary allocations.

72. Bangladesh operates a complex and formal allocation process for its Annual Development Program (ADP). Two features of the process are particularly important: (a) approval by the Economic Committee of the National Executive Council of a Project Proforma for each new project to be included in the ADP (without this approval, no expenditures can be made on the project); and (b) allocation within each ADP of funds for each year of implementationfor specific projects. In the case of the proposed project, the Government has decided that the Project Proforma process will be waived and a block allocation adequate to cover all project costs will be provided under the revised FY85 ADP and the ADP for FY86.

Procurement

73. International competitive bidding (ICB) would be inappropriate for civil works contracts because (i) the project would involve work at a large number of sites (probably in excess of 1,600) scattered throughout Bangladesh; (ii) most contracts would be of a relatively low cost value; (iii) the dispersal of sites would make the packaging of works into single contracts of sufficient value to attract foreign bidders very difficult; (iv) most of the work would be labor-intensive, involving a minimum of equipment, and easily and cheaply organized by small local contractors; and (v) the time involved in letting contracts through ICB would delay the start of works. Civil works contracts would be let through the existing arrangements of the four implementing agencies for local competitive bidding (LCB) among pre-qualified contractors. These arrangements have been reviewed by IDA and found satisfactory.There would be a limited amount on force account work.

74. Rollers, compaction equipment, and portable steel bridging required by RHD would be procured through ICB, as would be instruments,gauges, and the tugboat to be procured by IWTA. Pontoons, buoys, and workboats required by IWTA and costing about US$0.9 million equivalent would be procured through LCB. -27-

PROCUREMENT PROCEDURES (US$ Millions)

Proiect Element Procurement Method

ICB LCB Force Account Other Total Cost

Civil Works 36.54 1.07 0.13 37.74 (34.62) (1.01) (0.12) (35.75)

Equipment 3.87 0.90 4.77 (2.51) ( 0.59) ( 3.10)

Consultants 1.85 1.85 (1.78) ( 1.78)

Administrative Costs 3.87 3.87 (0) ( 0)

TOTAL 3.87 37.44 1.07 5.85 48.23 (2.51) (35.21) (1.01) (1.90) (40.63) NOTE: Figures in parenthesis are the respective amounts to be financed by IDA.

75. The standard civil works tender documents used by each of the implementingagencies have been reviewed by IDA and found suitable for project procurement. For equipment, the standard documents used by RED and IWTA for ICB and LCB procurement are satisfactory. Review and approval by the Bank prior to award would be required for all contracts for civil works or equipment estimated to cost the equivalent of US$150,000 or more (Schedule 3, Part D, paragraph 2(a) of the draft Development Agreement Credit). For other contracts, the bid evaluation report would be submitted for IDA's review and approval before submission of the first disbursement application in respect of that contract (Schedule 3, Part D, paragraph 2(b) of the draft Development Agreement Credit).

Disbursements

76. Disbursements from the proposed IDA credit would cover:

(a) 95% of the expenditure on civil works, including construction materials and any work done on force account such as fabrication of sluice gates;

(b) 100% of the foreign expenditure on directly imported bridging, construction, hydrological and miscellaneous equipment;

(c) 100% of the ex-factory price of equipment manufactured within Bangladesh, or 70% of local expenditures for other items procured locally; and -28-

(d) 100% of foreign and local expenditures incurred for consultant services.

On the basis of the above, it is expected that the credit would be employed approximately as follows: BWDB - US$3.6 million (plus US$10.8 million from Credits 864-BD and 1184-BD), RHD - US$18.2 million; IWTA - US$1.6 million; and LGD - US$6.6 million. Full documentation would be sent to IDA in support of withdrawal applications in respect of equipment, consultants and civil works contracts, except for small civil works contracts of less than US$20,000 equivalent and for force account operations which would be reim- bursed against statements of expenditure accompanied by a listing of the contracts or works included in the application and the total expenditure on each. The actual documentation would be retained by the implementingagencies and be made available for review to IDA representatives on request. Schedules of estimated expenditures and disbursements are given in Annex 5, Table 1. To ensure the uninterrupted flow of funds for approved project activities, a Special Account would be opened in Bangladesh Bank with sub- categories for each implementingagency (Section 2.02(b)) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). IDA would pay an initial amount into the Special Account following receipt of a withdrawal request to do so. Thereafter, payments would be made from the account to meet expenditures incurred under the project, and these sums would be replaced by IDA disbursements being paid into the account. The sub-categories of the Special Account would have ceilings of US$0.7 million, US$1.9 million, US$0.5 million and US$0.9 million, respectively, for BWDB, RHD, IWTA and LGD. Initial deposits to, withdrawals from and subsequent replenishment of the Special Account would be according to the provisions of Schedule 4 of the draft Development Credit Agreement.

77. Retroactive Financing. Retroactive financing in aggregate not exceeding US$6.0 million, or up to 20% of the proposed credit amount, would be permitted for works started by the project implementing agencies, or goods and services procured by the agencies for use under the project after October 1, 1984, provided that works undertaken were selected on the basis of criteria set out in paragraph 69 and the procurement procedures applied were consistent with procedures set out in paragraphs 73-75 (Schedule 1, paragraph 3 of the draft Development Credit Agreement).

Accounts and Audit

78. Each implementingagency would maintain records of expenditures incurred on civil works, on equipment purchases, and on consultant services. The agencies would not be required to account for administrative overheads incurred by the agencies in carrying out the project. Records of project expenditures would be maintained by the Executive Engineers responsible for sub-projects implementedby RHD, BWDB, and LGD, and by RED and IWTA headquarters in the case of equipment purchases. The accounts of all four implementing agencies are audited by their own internal audit systems and by -29-

the GovernmentAccountant General's Department which has recentlyestablished a cell to handle the financialaudit of rDA-financedprojects. These audit arrangementscurrently work well and would be employedfor the project. Auditedproject accounts consolidated for each implementingagency together with auditors' comments would be sent to IDA within nine months of the close of each fiscal year in which the IDA credit is effective (Section 4.01 of the draft DevelopmentCredit Agreement).

Cost Recovery

79. There would be no special arrangements to recover project costs either by the Government from the implementing agencies, or by the latter from the ultimatebeneficiaries (farmers and road and waterwayusers). Under agreementsreached between the Governmentand IDA under ongoingprojects, partialcost recoveryhas been introducedfor BWDB managed irrigation schemes. The adequacyof these is to be reviewedperiodically. A featureof the Road RehabilitationProject now under preparationwill be an examination of the adequacyof road user charges. Project Justification

80. Withoutrestoration, the efficiencyof road and waterwaysystems will be permanentlyimpaired and fLood protectionand irrigationand drainage schemeswould be in jeopardy. There would be substantialand continuing economiclosses. Given these circumstances,the restorationof flood damaged infrastructurehas one of the highestpriorities for expendituresin Bangladeshat this time. As discussedin paragraphs37-46, the 1984 floods caused substantialforeign exchange losses and broughtheavy and unexpected pressureon the Governmentbudget. The proposedcredit would only partly meet the cost of these unforeseendevelopments and the requiredrestoration work will have to be carriedout at the expenseof other development activities.

81. The susceptibilityof Bangladeshto floodingmust bring into question whether enough is being done to improveflood warning and protectionand thus to minimize the risk of futureeconomic lossesand the need for the Governmentto be faced with mounting subsequentrestoration and rehabilitation costs. As describedin paragraphs31 through36, the Government,with donor assistance,is implementingflood protectionprojects, actively reviewing its flood warningand protectionprograms, and planningfuture projects so as to significantlyreduce the risk of floods. The Flood Preparedness Study (paragraph62) to be fundedunder the project,activities currently underwayby the MasterPlanning Organization (water) and the Flood Warning Center shouldensure that the risk of seriousflood damage in Bangladeshwill be progressivelyreduced. -30- Risks

82. Delay in executingthe projectmight result from institutionalcon- straintsaffecting the four implementingagencies. However,the works to be undertakenare relativelysimple and are vell within the capacityof the individualagencies concerned. Because the projectcomprises a large number of individualrehabilitation schemes and becauseof their urgentnature the appraisalof the individualcomponents has not been subjectto the usual standardof scrutiny;however, only those schemeswhich meet criteriaagreed with IDA (paragraph69) will bp acceptedfor financing. Becauserehabilita- tion works under this projectwould be scatteredthroughout the flood affectedarea, it may prove difficultto superviseindividual schemes closely. However,consultants would be employedto assistthe executing agenciesin reviewingthe proposedworks againstthe agreedcriteria and in supervisingand implementingthese works.

PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTSAND AUTHORITY

83. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the People's Republic of Bangladesh and the Associationand the Recommendationof the Committee providedfor in ArticleV, Section l(d) of the Articlesof Agreementare being distributedseparately. 84. SpecialConditions of the project are listedin SectionIII of Annex III. 85. I am satisfiedthat the proposedcredit complies with the Articlesof Agreementof the Association.

PART VI - RECOMMENDATION

86. I recommendthat the ExecutiveDirectors approve the proposedcredit.

A. W. Clausen President

Washington,D.C. April 11, 1985 -31- ANNEX I TABLR 3A PACE I

NCLADCShh - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEIET ANCIADESH REERENMCE PSI (WEsIGI AVERAES) 7 HOST (HOST RECENT ESTDRATE) lb RECENT LOW INC0IE HIDDLI INCOME 1960Ib I7iOLk ESTDIATUIk ASIA & PActrIc ASIA 4 PACIFIC

A (TW rND SQ. U) TOTAL 144.0 144.0 144.0 ACRICULTURAL 94.6 97.0 97.4

CG PM CArIrT (US5) 40.0 60.0 140.0 278.6 1091.2 gmaT cSWm_P r CAPrTA (KILOGRAMS OP OIL EqUIVALENT) .. 20.0 35.0 272.0 567.3

POPULATION AN rV.ALTATISTICS POPULATIONMID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 53491.0 68117.0 92859.0 URAN POPULATION (2 OP TOTAL) 5.2 7.6 11.5 2117 34.7

POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN WAR 2000 (MILL) 156.7 STArIoARY POPULATION (HILL) 454.1 POPULATION NKMENTIrJ 1.9

POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 371.5 473.0 629.6 166.6 261.9 PEE SQ. KM. ACR. LAND 365.3 702.5 931.0 345.5 1735.1

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE(2) 0-14 YnS 44.3 46.3 42.8 3s.e 39.0 35-64 UrS 52.5 51.1 54.9 59.8 57.6 o5 AND ABOVE 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.3 3.3

POPULATION GROWTHRATE (2) TOTAL 1.9 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.3 URAN 3.7 6.2 6.3 4.3 4.3

CHUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUS) 46.8 48.0 46.8 27.7 30.3 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOOS) 22.4 20.9 16.9 10.1 9.5 CROSS REPRODUCTIONRATE 3.4 3.4 3.1 1.8 2.0

FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS. ANNAL (TNUS) .. 373.0 1607.0 USERS C2 OF HARRIED WCREN) .. .. 19.0 /c .. 52.7

FOOD ALD NmIROU INDEX UF FOOD PROD. PER CAPITA (3969-71-100) 106.0 101.0 94.0 112.8 123.0

PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (2 Or REQUIREMENTS) 87.0 85.0 84.0 97.7 114.4 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 44.0 43.0 42.0 56.8 57.0 UF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 9.0 9.0 7.0 Id 14.9 14.1

CHILD (AGES 1-4) DEATH RATE 24.9 23.0 19.4 9.8 7.2

HEALTH LIFE EXPECT. AT BIRTH (YF.ARS) 43.5 44.9 48.2 60.0 60.4 INFANT HORr. RATE (PER THOUS) 159.0 150.3 133.3 83.8 66.3

ACCESS TO SAFP WATER(ZPOP) TOTAL *- 45.0 53.0 /e 32.9 37.0 URBAN .. 13.0 15.0 7; 70.9 54.8 RURAL . 47.0 55.07; 22.1 26.4

ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (2 OF POPULATroN) TOTAL . 6.0 5.0 If 18.1 41.3 URBAN * *- 40.0 7F' 72.8 47.4 RURAL 4.6 33.3

POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN .. 8430.0 10940.0 J 3484.2 7749.4 POP. PER HORSINC PFRSOH . 76810.0 24450.0 7 4793.1 2460.4 POP. PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL . 7020.0 /h 4240.0 /1 1066.5 1044.2 URJAN . 810.0 7W 600.0o 7 296.0 651.2 RURAL .. .. 23470.0 /d 5993.4 2594.6

ADMISSIONSPER HOSPITAL BED . .- 27.0

NOOISIIIG AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. 5.9 J 5. URBAN 6.1 1 6.1 RURAL .. 5.9fl 5.8

AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/RODO TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..

ACCESS TO ELECT. (: UFDWELLINGS) TOTAL * *. 3.5 URBM .. .. RURAL .. .. -32- ANNEXI TABLE 3A PACE 2

3ANOLADESH - SOCIAL INYTCATORS DATA SHEET DMALADESH IEFtRENCEgRoUPS (WrICIItED AVERACES)7r HOST (MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) Lb RECENS LOW INCOME MIDDLE IMCOCE 196, k 1i,r0L ESTnIATBrk ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC

ADJUSTEDENROLLMENT RATIOS PKRIMAYt TOTAL 47.0 52.0 62.0 97.4 102.0 MALE 66.0 o8.0 76.0 110.5 105.9 FEMALE 26.0 34.0 47.0 83.7 95.2

SECONDARY:TOTAL 8.0 19.0 15.0 35.9 46.0 KALE 14.0 29.0 24.0 44.b 48.7 FEKALE 1.0 F.0 6.0 26.8 43.1

VOCATIONAL(X OF SECONDARY) 1.0 0.3 14.3 2.2 17.5

PUPIL-TEACHERRATIO PRIMARY .. 45.0 44.0 38.5 31.5 SECONDARY .. 26.0 21.0 18.1 23.5

ADULT LITERACY RATE (:) 21.6 23.0 LI 26.0 Id 53.4 72.9

CON UIPnON PASSENCERCARS/THOUSAND POP .. 0.4 0.4 0.9 In.1 RADIO RECEIVERS/THOUSANDPOP .. .. 8.0 112.1 113.6 TV RECEIVCRStTHOUSANDPOP .. .. 0.9 15.7 50.1 NEWSPAPER("DAILY GENERAL INTERESr") CIRCULATION PER THOUSANDPOPULATION .. *- 4.7 J 16.2 53.9 CINEMAANNUAL ATTENDANCE/CAPITA ...... 3.6 3.4

ULA5 FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUS) 19252.0 23611.0 33221.0 FEMALE(PERCENT) 15.2 16.6 17.8 33.3 33.5 ACRICULTURE(PERCENT) 87.0 86.0 74.0 69.$, 52.2 INDUSTRY(PERCENT) 3.0 3.0 11.0 15.8 17.9

PARTICIPATIONRATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 36.0 34.7 35.5 42.6 38.7 MALE 58.7 55.9 57.1 54.7 50.9 FEKALE 11.4 11.9 13.1 29.8 26.6

ECONOMICDEPENDENCY RATIO 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1

INCOMEDIBTIXUIUTO PERCENTOF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 52 o7 HOUSEHOLDS 18.3 I .. /1 .. .. 22.2 HIGHESTZ0Z OF HOUSEHOLDS 44.5 7V 44.1 71 .. .. 48.0 LOWEST202 OF HOUSEHOLDS 6.9 It 8.7 7 .. .. 6.4 LOWEST40% OF HOUSEHOLDS 17.9 -Fk 19.6 71 .. .. 15.5

POVZtRTY TARGLT GROUPS ESTIMATEDABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN . .. 139.0 Id 133.9 188.6 RURAL .. .. 111.0 7W 111.6 152.0

ESTDATED KELATIVE POVERTYINCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URN ...... 177.9 RURAL . .. .. 164.6

ESTIMATEDPOP. BELOWABSOLUTE POVErTY INCOMELEVEL (1) URBAN 86.0 /d 43.8 23.4 RURAL .. .. 86.0 /d 51.: 37.7 NUT AVAILABLE NOT APPLICASLP

N O T E S

/a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted artthmetic means. Coverage of countries among the Indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform.

/b Unless otherwise noted, "Oato for 1960" refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; "Data for 197O' between 1969 and 1971; and data for "Mst Recent Estimte" between 1980 and 1982.

Ic 1983-84 data; Id 1977; /e 1976; If 1975; 7l 1979; Ih 1972; Lt 1978; /I 1973; 7k 1963; /1 1967.

JUNE 1984 -331. ANNEXI mrsI"WUIFJZSSLI*EfPage 3 bi.- Al.b..t bs da.. -a. i.... Ins sal. nIt,1451.sn sains n o ta . shald .1.. ts a.l1" h..l gb.n say1 al .- .o RsnlsaIF tssi,at .k .a It. IISa P.4 i-d.rdlW .S slsi.s. ad - Pa.si asS by dlflsrsa y-StIlil. I. i.il..lls lbs At.. vi.a.. d ., .s.stis maSm A.=oih n... a s.sld .P151.m. 'ld..S SPP Pk9a...... I.. anylais salai iirelonspaW hi... astaidrt.. mars..sa grate a.. lb lbs a- -aI"y g.ao .1 lbs a SPIsan as ill . a...., aI.s.ss vIli s.-a., hEal.., .sams ino INS.s Its ans-y raw . to.M sal.sollan. 4~.-.PiI.-.11.b.l ba.. b Pnntsi iaws -. 'ddie ltp.s bitt APi o 1 1111I. M..- a0 W-isa he.s.a. .r .,s jr.i l alllsiil.sb.Is lb. alsrs A -Woels.I. a...spsal-.ns lIasId .,tmh-.b a..1.. se. ladlaalglan s...- .. sI, b.slfi t * .. its As. . 1.s 4 1. a- "..tolbtt.ss. ls. ls. a.srsa* WPP,,,.lb. &-i-t.ss dopasi. .4 lbs -nslIsb1 11., .1 lila Wa ssi st.,o.l aSb s AMl.I ssn -,n. i* llrle1 .ss. b...... i.e iou --. -Itb I. aandalls1 Iho saIls al0 eldo,Ilint --. a..... lbs rIIaslgi sa

L - iino.1 ao -nbsil ri saII.p.li - PatsPPol IT .desS .oiiiisin . .ass... . tISsas.... pisail-s ta-. as :M p74.ai.,s sI-1h. ttbg.., 1-ars. - PIs lS ma.tins 1*. sibdasb.1

flla .51St data. No~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.%1U.Mdbar p!pill hM b- 64jgf -jatl-Ppbl 4 SPA.lal CUE'Ma I -i GMiA!jP., . sin-I..al-f.. sb.a pita, aI Still. It P.abltPIa paba* gnsa a os,alid tapOISa and -. ann.ps. at.a 14iI IoS *11. ilIiDl- b Iss.li r.sll .lbsoas. ipi .a. PssiyoIlesasi tts iq*o,ne,, as vial Asa.. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~byis Is... a pb,.t.iv.. S.sttaL p414. 'aolsabpally osmdbol-

.7 Al~ ~ d- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IsobsAo_d. ..in ~~~~~~~~~~~W'..psl. ff.. ifad hdtbad

aWISsstsoo lgo o.h, I ls. 9 l jlssl psisaps. 110Istas,d aldlasIisdiIllit

W -, bal i* ill., IS)l.. and 1414 11411 dtsaa*s II5.tS-! f!p.a aba.ajlar ~,f±isi-am.l-t.iIs .1 'tos 15 .111 ealIial In. - AIa.. . osasals 5 to..p5 isdaldaa aA*m top. bstq qslitr db tals . -o alf- -watbrn I i.sd,oina.n.. oIo I-141 W a n- nisSI snl4s.sis.. AnIAt. It.,a,tI~ t tans..d n sa i.bl-ipap.

p11.5.1Pilo.ibns 1 asat sat.s.Iva ~ qP1.44. Tr.n.a± mias. .. r~~~iijjp.j5 paryiI- 15 I. i ass 1 Am101ppiln 1 lis. a a 9 i i.. . alnls .snI

sPlb.t, Isssi. sad gas Its s.or.onsI Silgnam PIA C..tanitsilea It lo. e s 59 a.ns s*v.55

sasisddsoltan In tonlhi I. :sod;-I.. IlsIn 1." I'll ean ails

P Pi...o... ll. aslasd.aai tonIn. Las:,.. SasI,sssiois I!!f4In s-nntin.Iba tread.ai anliallgp Sag antpinisrlbso sortllltw plltpnnas MJTIIdd tag.siivas. tail... P 1 ltsI.si p.osbi-i . nau - nllliij1i.-.a PadRs.slIlsa. nb ol-i.s a b ag ,tls rats has 151 oang- -Iaia otd ils g-psb smls sala. d.las IIoploml.n tgtrit.a optts

.at aI1 IisatAs-Is .lPsli-s5 Iygas . siaw ssl do5 -.royalist -. al1 tina.i. o.prsa-,i rsI.orI lslgr.lI=al

Paaa bg- .ona s t .- ds.to .- IIl. l. lI snl 51-I5 drlso.-l1011 gtoss sVas ns aIn-.5I b I-ndbs itsnyt,snsisi ss ll 1.Ia- slla.Sa npI..10 s-II si aII;1ss . ns.dnsosr_ I.. isa stIlp55 Itohas notr.ae..d r.rsdll,Iba asils. In asossatl 0*s lS.bVd slsIsolsbssbsss g..s.sss..alI s-glaisila-ios.a.saas lsI.sPi.ttl.s .ltabttlssr. hniia. p,ts nstbbnlsI .50 aloaI ssIaI.ldns5aPa$alblS Isrt Iilt. 1 1 1

lbs ssatgo saisss...l~'l Islilna ssniIi.ainSt bal tdsilsdol I 55 s dll.ta.nal aoada.,inllI. P a

-i-4Vb pW.-1b das

ttos tditls thnl odaa I-Pliloatnlsr 5 an....l-la I,s..n .. gil..i...islllsplS 51a

O..alli , r5-l51 -asa P.5 a1-il -Is I.. nlI-as 1mm asll0- Psg

______IPT 1 'anpas .119~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~""

ins pt.satns;1l19al,.aolbll aIs 'sna pns ho 11.- I aasIta 11.-aasss snal. (ny Iba..s I- donaa -rs.l pS- l -.aStsaaIa itnsa. p t-7lsde.allai-T ssni s .. atllg

Pin.15141. sl n i, 55 onl .1'p'*.nsdppigas lld.sii..dT ssal 0.aasdaa... tss-dl-io so d.ls. -. n-nsllbati I antls 51 sr.n-nrattI-t-7 V -s

tsi.nnn ipf.ds-gsap5inditlb assrsss5= -.aI. IP,--norl.- t.gol(r.,lioiI*btsafsllais h. b al SosIitilasal isia ata.19a5 ll~It. 0 tp lls tiie4s.lIlsa nnpPP 1 aia s5proln

na. l Raiolns.o.sdp s . i-_aaoa as.I sen.ts psliPiass I- PPa'--staS. b.9 I.saain.at. 1.a dtIo .o-.psit tby I i*lsla sn ..

-tbiI'tlmI las.odr n'' t a .. s li i IJIi-aCls. nt.tIIIsa-0s- ais prisa- an-o a sa . -344-NI Page 4

uouuc IDICATs

Populetiomz 95.9 million (Janeary 193) cGP Per Capita: ISSUe (1933)

Amout (million US Average Anual Iscream (2) Sbhre of CDP at Market PrIces (2) in current price.) (i coastant pricem) (in current oriree) Indicator FY33 fhtf-7l n70-75 fI75-kW USLI& .n60 n709 75 n80A .ni UR MA71ONALACCOUWES Gros. domestic product L 10,640 4.0 -0.6 5.5 3.3 ID0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture Li 5.139 3.1 -1.3 3.3 2.8 59.9 56.9 62.5 53.4 44.7 46.9 Industry IA 1.463 7.9 -3.2 6.4 2.7 7.7 9.6 11.3 12.7 13.5 13.1 Servicea a *4033 4.9 3.3 3.1 4.2 30.1 30.0 26.2 34.0 39.6 40.0 Consumption 10.438 4.4 -0.7 6.0 2.5 92.4 92.8 99.2 98.0 103.9 93.1 Gross domeatic iDvestmet 1768 10.9 -10.9 2.0 0.1 6.9 11.3 S.1 16.7 13.3 16.6 Experte of good. & Dfa 899 0.8 -11.7 3.4 30.6 30.0 3.3 3.0 7.8 7.7 8.4 Importa of good. & naf 2,465 8.8 -12.0 6.1 -0.4 9.3 12.5 10.3 22.5 25.3 23.2

Gross national savings 691 26.5 -17.1 22.1 20.0 0.9 6.1 1.0 4.0 -1.0 6.5

Amount (million US3 Coapoaltion of MerchandiseTrade (S) in current prices) (in current urice.) ns'a n nun auX un aYsIIs RlflZJ(Dlh8ETADE Merchandise exports 822 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 :oo 100.0 Primary fL 263 40.4 31.5 29.6 30.9 33.2 32.0 Namufjtures 559 59.6 63s 10.4 69.3 66.3 68.0 Nerchondise imports 2.353 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.D 100.0 100.0 Food 398 44.1 42.2 30.2 13.9 19.5 16.9 Petroleum 355 3.2 31.1 16.2 21.7 39.7 15.1 Machinery A equipment 608 13.8 11.5 23.0 26.1 79.5 25.8 Other 992 3e.9 35.2 32.0 38.2 31.3 42.2

cm r76 a"77 Y78 n79 an oOt arw2 n PRICZAND TERNSOF TRADEINDICCS (1972/73-100) QIP Deflator 140.6 240.7 183.1 177.2 203.6 216.8 252.7 267.3 295.9 331.4 xgcbangerate (I,U058) 7.9661 L8.759 14.8521 15.4667 15.1215 15.2223 15.4777 16.3447 20.0400 23.7600 Export price index 104.5 119.0 103.4 108.9 126.5 160.9 198.9 375.7 147.7 154.5 Iport price index 144.9 187.8 180.2 178.2 168.7 20a.9 234.9 263.9 259.9 237.4 rerusof trade index 72.1 63.4 57.4 61.1 75.0 77.0 34.7 66.6 56.8 65.1

As I of CDP (at current prices) FY75 FY77 F8so FY82 FY83 PUBLIC FnAlE! Current revenue 5.4 9.5 30.5 11.6 10.7 Current expenditure 4.5 7.8 7.7 8.4 8.5 Current urplus C.) or deficit C-) .0.9 1.7 . 2.3 * 3.2 12.2 Capitalexpenditure 3.1 9.5 13.3 12.4 11.8 Foreignfinancing 2.4 6.0 8.2 8.0 11.4

FT60-70 7170-75 fl75-w n 8O3 OlTER INDICATORS COP growth rate (1) 4.2 -0.6 6.5 4.0 GN? per capita growtb rate th) 1.5 -3.0 4.0 1.6

- not available - not applicable

L& At narket prices. Lk Raw jute. tea, and fisheries.

ASADA Feb. 27. 1985 -35-

Pegn S e~~~~~~~~~~~~~~pg

pAu 4N OFP[M NTI. 14TENUALCAPtTAL AND DUT

(million 116. in current prices)

BALANCEOF PATHsA Actuel tIgf~Luai ctd. au5 an7 rr7 rre rr7 EnilYU re FY14tG 5 Not exports of goods -1,059 -903 -470 -859 -946 -1,650 -1,622 -1.946 -1.623 -1.531 -2,100 Exports of goods 344 372 405 490 610 722 711 626 686 822 900 Imports of goods -1,403 -1,275 -875 -1.349 -1.556 -2,372 -2.533 -2,577 -2.309 -2.353 -3.000 Not exports of services 21 - 7 -29 -32 -20 4 15 -70 -112 -33 -90 Workers' remittances 35 29 60 113 143 210 379 424 626 552 435

Current account belance -I.003 4- 773 .I 4 8 J= -1-435 1.2 -1.59229 .1J107 -1.012 -1.755

Direct private investment ...... HLT loans (net) 4981 497 238 398 420 560 513 508 476 563 575 Grante A grant-like ftown 382 245 265 394 551 592 584 667 709 697 840 Otber capital flows (net) 274 87 17 -39 -16 144 307 255 164 -82 49

Change in reserves (- - increase) -151 53 -81 25 -124 119 24 142 -242 -166 291

rnternational reserves (end of period) 266 213 294 269 393 271 249 108 350 516 225 Reserves as months of imports of next year 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.0

Actual n75 Fn7b FT77 U78 n79 FT 80 FT8I Ft82 Fll GROSS DISPTJRSINENTS Total gross disbursements 519 563 266 435 477 630 562 548 549 Concessional 458 533 244 401 456 600 541 468 463 Bilateral 343 390 144 262 213 273 287 232 213 IDA 112 128 86 88 153 152 170 158 190 Other multilateral 3 15 14 51 91 176 64 78 80 Non-concessional 60 30 24 35 20 30 21 81 67 Dilaterial 45 16 6 2 3 17 2 7 28 IDRD - - ______Other ustieteral - I - - - - 1 31 12 Private 15 13 18 32 17 13 19 42 26

Nl!T DISSUNSEN!WTS 498 497 238 398 420 580 513 508 476

DEBT OUTSTANDGIR Total outstanding and disbursed 1,355 1.797 2,053 2.571 2.951 3.216 3.615 3.979 4,470 Official 1.233 1,689 1,940 2.436 2.808 3.067 3,491 3.934 4.317 IJRD 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 IDA 255 380 466 554 707 859 1.027 1.161 1.366 Other 923 1.254 1.419 1.627 2.047 2.154 2.409 2.599 2.896 Private 122 108 113 135 142 149 124 145 153 Undisbursed debt 1,019 948 1,016 1,335 1.659 1,719 2,104 2,619 2,773

DEST SERVICE Total debt service 31 88 59 69 95 94 91 87 123 Amortization 21 66 30 37 57 50 50 40 74 Interest 10 22 28 32 38 43 42 47 49

IlRD debt service 0 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 IDA debt service 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 8

Average interest rate Official 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.0 Private 2.3 8.9 7.2 6.2 6.1 6.9 :0.8 8.6 8.6

Average maturity Official 35.1 42.9 38.6 38.5 36.2 34.2 '5.1 35.5 39.5 Yrivate 15.3 11.3 11.0 9.5 14.8 19.2 .7 11.7 12.9

BANKGROUP EXPOSURE (I) IBID DOD/total DOD 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 IBID disbursements/totaldisbursement. 0 0 0 0 0 C 0 0 0 ISRD debt service/totel debt service D 2 6 5 4 4 4 4 ; IDA DOD/total DOD 19 21 23 22 24 27 28 30 31 IDA disbursemente/total disbursemnts 22 23 32 20 32 24 30 29 35 DA debt service/total debt service 3 3 5 5 5 6 7 9 6

8 3 TERMSTRUCTURE At June 19 i16D/IDA LENDING(At June 1983) eIRD IDA

Mlturity structure of debt Outstanding A Disbursed 54.9 1,365.8 Maturities due within 5 yeers 15.1 Undisbursed - 1,005.0 Nsturities due within 10 years 29.4 Outstandiag. incl. Undisbureed 54.9 2,370.8

Interest structure of debt Interest due within 1 year 1.4

notc *vailable ASADA February 21. 1985 -36-

ANNEXII Page 1 of 4

THE STATUSOF BANKGROUP OPERATIONS IN BANGLADESH/a.

A. STATEMENTOF BANKLOANS AND IDA CREDITS (aS of September 30. 1984)

Amounts Loan or (less cancellations) Credit USS Million lb Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed

One loan and 31 credits fully disbursed 54.90 1,079.15 -

527 1975 Bangladesh Ashuganj Fertilizer - 62.00 1.07 542 1975 Bangladesh Barisal Irrigation - 21.00 3.27 605 1976 Bangladesh Karnafuli Irrigation - 22.37 5.66 631 1976 Bangladesh Rural Development - 16.00 5.54 725 1977 Bangladesh Huhuri Irrigation - 21.00 8.83 735 1977 Bangladesh Inland Water Transport II - 5.00 0.60 787 1978 Bangladesh Foodgrain Storage II - 25.00 9.56 825 1978 Bangladesh Small-ScaleIndustry II - 7.00 2.29 828 1978 Bangladesh AgriculturalResearch - 6.00 0.45 864 1978 Bangladesh Drainage & Flood Control - 19.00 11.36 890 1979 Bangladesh Oxbow Lakes Fisheries - 6.00 2.74 912 1979 Bangladesh VocationalTraining - 25.00 13.23 921 1979 Bangladesh Population& Family Health II - 32.00 17.12 934 1979 Bangladesh Greater Khulna Pover Distribution - 28.00 9.87 941 1979 Bangladesh Dacca Water Supply & Sewerage II - 22.00 2.83 955 1979 Bangladesh Small-ScaleDrainage & Flood Control - 25.00 16.80 964 1979 Bangladesh Highways II - 10.00 6.29 990 1980 Bangladesh Low-Lift Pumps - 37.00 20.31 1001 1980 Bangladesh ChittagongWater Supply It - 20.00 11.56 1023 1980 Bangladesh FertilizerIndustry Rehabilitation - 29.00 17.85 1032 1980 Bangladesh Jute Industry Rehabilitation - 20.00 12.39 1042 1980 Bangladesh Mangrove Afforestation - 11.00 6.25 1054 1980 Bangladesh Education IV (PrimaryEducation) - 40.00 24.79 1065/c 1980 Bangladesh Small-ScaleIndustry III - 35.00 19.20 1091/c 1981 Bangladesh Bakhrabad Gas Development - 85.00 9.43 1096|c 1981 Bangladesh FertilizerTransport - 25.00 11.83 1117/c 1981 Bangladesh Bangladesh Shilpa Bank II - 50.00 23.82 1124kc 1981 Bangladesh TechnicalAssistance IV - 16.00 6.09 1140/c 1981 Bangladesh Hand Tubevells - 18.00 10.11 1147/c 1981 Bangladesh AgriculturalCredit - 40.00 17.50 1184jc 1982 Bangladesh Drainage & Flood Control II - 27.00 21.92 1204Lc 1982 Bangladesh ChittagongUrea Fertilizer - 15.00 12.79 -37-

ANNEXII Page 2 of 4

A. Bank Loans and IDA Credits to Baniladesh (continued)

Amounts Loan or (less cancellations) Credit -US$Million /b Number YYear Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed

1205/c 1982 Bangladesh TextileIndustry Rehabilitation - 30.00 26.07 1215/c 1982 Bangladesh Extension6 ResearchII - 27.00 19.99 1247/c 1982 Bangladesh Chittagong Port - 60.00 53.37 1254Lc 1982 Bangladesh AshuganjThermal Pover - 92.00 79.44 1262Lc 1982 Bangladesh Rural Electrification - 40.00 30.78 1287/c 1982 Bangladesh Deep Tubevells II - 68.00 51.55 1300Lc 1983 Bangladesh Imports Program XI - 110.00 9.78 1301Lc 1983 Bangladesh First Highway Project (Supplemental) - 6.00 4.12 1318Lc 1983 Bangladesh Business Management Education & Training - 7.80 6.99 1321/c 1983 Bangladesh TelecomuanicationsIII - 35.00 32.27 1349/c 1983 Bangladesh Public Administration (Training and Personnel Management) - 12.00 10.37 1357Lc 1983 Bangladesh Energy Efficiencyand Refinery Rehabilitation - 28.50 26.07 1384/c 1983 Bangladesh Rural DevelopmentII - 100.00 89.00 1396Lc 1983 Bangladesh Agricultural Training II - 8.10 7.37 1399Lc |d 1983 Bangladesh Sugar Rehabilitation and Intensification - 20.00 18.15 1402lc /e 1983 Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration Promotion - 23.00 21.38 <440/c /d 1984 Banglade3h Fifth Technical Assistance - 25.00 23.78 14553l /f 1984 Bangladesh Second Agricultural Research - 24.50 24.50 1467Lc lg 1984 Bangladesh Water DevelopmentBoard - 41.50 41.50 1471/c.. Ld 1984 Bangladesh Import Program XII - 140.00 88.37 1477L/c 1984 Bangladesh Textile IndustryRehab. II - 23.00 23.00 FO22Ls L& 1984 Bangladesh Textile Industry Rehab. II - 22.00 22.00 149OLc /e 1984 Bangladesh Technical Education - 36.00 36.00 -38-

ANNEX II Page 3 of 4

A. Bank Loans and IDA Creditsto Bantladesh(continued) Amounts Loan or (less cancellations) Credit US$ Million/b Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed

1504-0L1c/f1984 Bangladesh SAP - 725 BD - 10.00 10.00 1504-1Lc/f1984 Bangladesh SAP 1023 BD - 5.00 5.00 1504-2LcLf1984 Bangladesh SAP 1247 BD - 7.00 7.00 1504-3LcLf1984 Bangladesh SAP 1262 BD - 8.00 8.00

Total 54.90 2,908.92 1,119.20 of which repaid - 4.13 - Total noW outstandina 54.90 2.904.62 Amount sold 0.00 0.00 Total now held by Banu and IDA 54.90 2,904.62 Total undisbursed 1.119.20 1,119.20

/a The statusof the projectslisted in Part A is describedin a separatereport on all Bank/IDAfinanced projects in execution,which is updatedtwice yearlyand circulatedto the ExecutiveDirectors on April 30 and October 31. !b The originalprincipal of creditsunder replenishments1 to 3 has been increased by the amountof the translationadjustment as a resultof the devaluationof the United Statesdollar in 1972 and 1973. Lc Creditsfunded out of IDA's 6th Replenishmentdenominated in SDRs. Amounts of principal are calculated at the rate of exchange in effect at the time of negotiations;amounts undisbursed are calculatedat the rate of exchangein effect on September 30, 1984, and the US$ equivalent for fully disbursed credits funded out of IDA's 6th Replenishment is calculated at the rate of exchange in effect on the dates of disbursement. Ld Became effective on June 19, 1984. Le Effective December 20, 1984. ILfEffective October 25, 1984. L& Not yet effective. -39-

ANNEXII Page 4 of 4

B. STATEMENTOF IFC INVESTMENTS(as of SeDtember 30. 1984) /a

Fiscal Amounts in US$ Million Year Obligor TVDe of Business Loan Equity Total

1969 Karnaphuli Paper Mills Ltd. Pulp & Paper Products 5.60 0.63 6.23

1979 Highspeed Shipbuilding & Heavy EngineeringCo., Ltd. Shipbuilding 1.20 0.36 1.56

1980 IndustrialPromotion and DevelopmentCompany of Development Bangladesh,Ltd. Finance Company 1.05 1.05

Total gross commitments 6.80 2.04 8.84 less cancellations,terminations, repayments and sales 5.60 0.63 6.23 Total now held by IFC 1.20 1.41 2.61

Total undisbursed 0.65 - 0.65

/ The followingIFC investmenthas been approved but not yet signed:

1982 Bata Shoe Co. Shoe Manufacturing (Bangladesh)Ltd. and Tannery 2.7 .5 3.2 -40-

ANNEX 3 Page 1

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Supplementary Project Data Sheet

Section I: Timetable of Key Events

(a) Time taken to prepare project:

Two months

(b) Agencies preparing the project:

Bangladesh Water Development Board, Inland Water Transport Authority, Local Government Division, Roads and Highways Department.

December 1984

(d) Date of departure of appraisal mission:

December 1984

(e) Date of completion of negotiations:

April 2, 1985

(f) Planned date of effectiveness:

60 days following credit signing although it is anticipated that credit can be declared effective immediately.

Section II: Special IDA ImplementationAction:

None -41-

ANNEX 3 Page 2

Section III: Special Conditions:

Conditions of Effectiveness:

None

Other Conditions:

The Government, with assistance of consultants to be financed under this project, would carry out a study to assess its capability to respond effectively to flood emergencies and would furnish the findings of this study to IDA by December 31, 1986 for comments and would implement thereafter its agreed recommendations (paragraph 62). -42- ANNEX 4 Table I Page 1

BANGLADESH

FLOOD RExABrLITATIONPROJECT

BWDB: Location of Rehabilitation Works and Preliminary Cost EsSimates

BWDB OperationalUnit/ Number of EstimatedCost Nature of Reconstruction Locations of Repairs (Tk million) KarnafuliIrriastion Proiect Embankmentrehabilitation 1 0.500 Regulator,repairs 9 2.000 Bridge, repairs 1 0.100 Sub-total 2.600 Rhulna 06M Circle La Xhulna District Embankmentrehabilitation 17 29.022 Embankmentbreaches closures 1 0.838 Sluice repairs 13 Cost included in embankmentrepairs BaferhatDistrict Embankmentrehabilitation 5 5.620 SatkhiraDistrict Embankmentrehabilitation 10 53.881 Sluicerepairs 57 3.900 JessoreDistrict Embankmentrehabilitation 4 3.814 Regulatorrepairs 1 0.350 Sluicerepairs 12 2.350 Narail District Embankmentrehabilitation 1 1.933 Sluice repairs 9 0.850 JhenaidahDistrict Sluice repairs 1 0.350 Sub-total 102.908

L/ Operationand MaintenanceCircle. 3ANNEX4 Table I Page 2

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REBABILITATIONPROJECT

AWDB: Location.ofRehabilitation Works and PreliminaryCost Estimates

BWDB OperationalUnit/ Number of EstimatedCost Nature of Reconstruction Locations of Repairs (Tk million) Comilla WD Circle La

Comilla WD Division Embankmentrehabilitation 23 2.159 Bridge repairs 1 0.100 Sluice repairs Cost includedin embankmentrepairs

Noakhali-WD Division and Lakshampur WDDivision Embankment rehabilitation 4 6.364 Sluice repairs 23 Cost included in embankment repairs Regulator protection 1 0.510 Sub-total 9.133

Noulvi Bazar WDCircle Manu River Proiect Embankment breach closure 12 4.437 Syphen repairs 6 1.582 Irrigation canal repairs 4 5.900 Building repairs 9 0.600 Sub-total 12.519 Mvmensin2hWD Circle Embankmentrehabilitation 7 28.780 Sub-total 28.780 Dbaka WDCircle Embankment rehabilitation 5 8.099 Sub-total 8.099

SylbetWD Circle Embankmentbreach closures about 60 5.068 Embankmentrehabilitation 3 0.800 Sub-total 5.868

La Water Development Circle. -44- 4 Table 1 Page 3

BANCWADESE

FLOODREBUlILITATION PROJECT

BWDB: Locationof RehabilitationWorks and PreliminaryCost Estimates

BWDB OperationalUnit/ Number of EstimatedCost Nature of Reconstruction Locaoions gf Revairs (Tk million)

Chandpur IrrigationProject Embankmentrehabilitation 1 0.223 Sub-total 0.223

FaridDurO&M Circle Embankmentbreach closures 1 0.756 Embankmentrehabilitation 4 3.152 Regulatorrepairs 5 1.043 Sub-total 4.951

Gan_esKobadak Rehabilitation Project Embankmentrehabilitation 7 1.012 Regulatorrepairs 1 0.200 Embankmentbreach closures 3 0.028 Sub-total 1.240

Teesta Barrage Scheme Regulatorrepairs 9 2.233 Embankmentbreach closures 4 3.745 Embankment rehabilitation 1 0.038 Pump house repairs 2 0.325 Sub-total 6.341 BarisalWD Circle Embankmentbreach closures 4 2.040 Embankmentrehabilitation 20 57.860 Sluice repairs 1 0.050 Sub-total 59.950 ThakurtaonTubevell Project Circle

DinainurWD Division Regulatorrepairs 13 5.618 ThakurgaonWD Division(w) Regulatorrepairs 3 1.043 Sub-total 6.661 -45- ANN 4 Table I Page 4 BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATIONPROJECT

UWDB: Locationof RehabilitationWorks and PreliminaryCost Estimates

BWDB OperationalUnit/ Number of EstimatedCost Nature of Reconstruction Locations of ReDairs (Tk million)

RaishahiIrri2atiou Circle Chalan Beel ProiectDivision Embankmentbreach closures 12 1.460 Embankmentrehabilitation 2 5.331 RaishahiWD Division I Embankmentrehabilitation 3 1.576 RaishahiIrrigation Division II Embankmentrehabilitation 5 1.487 Sub-total 9.854 Borra WDCircle Embankmentrehabilitation 4 12.460 Embankmentbreach closures 2 8.300 Regulatorrepairs 1 1.200 Cross bar repairs 5 0.800 Sub-total 22.760 Pabna Inte2ratedRural Development Proiect Circle

Pabna ID DivisionI Embankmentbreach closures 2 0.201 Embankmentrehabilitation 3 2.267 Cross dam repairs 1 0.032 Pabna UIDDivision II Embankmentrehabilitation 3 0.967 Sub-total 3.467 ChittanonItWD Circle Embankmentbreach closures 5 3.465 Embankmentrehabilitation 18 18.774 Sluice repairs about 30 7.420 Regulatorrepairs 1 0.025 Embankmentprotection 2 7.277 Sub-total 36.961 -46- ANNEX4 Table 1 Page 5

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

BWDB: Location of Rehabilitation Works and Preliminary Cost Estimates

BWDB Operational Unit/ Number of Estimated Cost Nature of Reconstruction Locations of Repairs (Tk million)

Bhola Irritation Proiect Embankment breach closures 8 13.886 Embankment rehabilitation 7 9.484 Sluice repairs 1 0.200 Sub-total 23.570

Total Base Cost: 345.885

US$ million: 13.30

Note: The table indicates the BWDB unit responsible for the restoration works. Location refers varyingly to the embankment on vhich repairs will be carried out and to the upazila or polder where the damage has occurred. Consequently, for each location there may be several damage sites.

Embankment rehabilitation generally encompasses resectioning and basic protection works. Closure may mean single refilling and carpeting but also retirement. Repairs to sluices, regulators and bridges may mean complete reconstruction but usually the restoration of upstream and downstream protection works. Embankment protection usually implies the provision of special protective features for an embankment subject to river and wave attack.

Cost estimates are preliminary; as set out in the main text designs and thus costs will be reviewed in the course of project implementation. -47-

ANNEX 4 Table 2

BANGWA_ESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

BWDB: List of Town Protection Schemes Damaftedin Course of 1984 Floods

1. Kushtia on Gorai River 2. Rbulna on Bhairab-Rupoa River 3. Chandpur on Meghna River 4. Bandarban on Sangu River 5. Haragacha, Bakultala and Sarai on Teesta River 6. Badarganj on Jamuneshwari River 7. Rajshahi on Padma River 8. Sirajganj on Jamuna River 9. Madaripur on Arial Khan River 10. Moulvi Bazar on Manu River 11. Bhairab Bazar on Neghna River 12. Sylhet on Surma River (Right Bank) 13. Jhalokati on Sugandhya River 14. Balia on Bangshi River 15. Movaghat-Bhagyakul on Padma River 16. Nizkalikapur on Muhuri River 17. Kutubdia Embankment 18. Faridpur on Kumar River 19. Mahendiganj on Hizla River 20. Morrelganj on Daratana River 21. Gorai intake 22. Kumarkhali on Gorai-Madhumati River 23. Devanganj on Old Brabmaputra River -48-

ANNEX 4 Table 3

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATIONPROJECT

RHD: Location and Nature of RestorationWorks and PreliminaryCost Estinatel (Tk million)

RHD Operational Ear Paveent P.S. BridginR Bridges Culverts Total Zone No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost

NATIONAL ROADS Dhaka 4 2.50 9 31.55 3 2.40 7 29.00 - - 23 65.45 Chittagong 9 3.00 30 80.75 - - 6 10.10 3 2.85 48 96.70 Ehulna 3 4.00 11 50.29 1 .20 - - 1 .30 16 54.79 Rajshahi 5 3.08 5 6.21 1 .05 3 9.10 1 1.20 15 19.64 Sub-total 21 12.58 55 168.80 5 2.65 16 48.20 5 4.35 102 236.8

REGIONALROADS Dhaka 1 .30 4 6.65 1 .05 1 5.00 - - 7 12.00 Chittagong 2 .55 10 13.82 - - - - 2 1.20 14 15.57 Ihulna 2 .55 3 9.80 ------5 10.35 Rajshahi 6 8.70 7 17.15 1 2.30 - - 1 1.60 15 29.75 Sub-total 11 10.10 24 47.42 2 2.35 1 5.00 3 2.80 41 67.67

FEEDER ROADS Dhaka 30 10.23 13 5.89 14 5.57 3 .65 2 .15 62 22.49 Chittagong 9 3.65 21 41.12 5 5.00 - - 4 2.45 39 52.22 Khulna 10 4.80 13 44.53 1 1.50 2 17.00 1 .02 27 67.85 Rajahahi 17 4.27 11 27.23 6 28.90 3 2.80 9 6.43 46 69.63 Sub-total 66 22.95 58 118.77 26 40.97 8 20.45 16 9.05 174 212.19

Total 98 45.63 137 334.99 33 45.97 25 73.65 24 16.20 317 516.44

US$19.86 million equivalent

Notes: 1. Source - RHD Flood Damage Repair Program, 1984-85, October 1984. RHD Additional Flood Damage Repair Program, 1984-85, January 1985. 2. Costs are net of purchase price of portable steel bridging. 3. P.S. Bridging: Portable Steel Bridging. -49-

ANNEX4 Table 4 Page 1

FLOO0 RENAS;1IL?TATNXMPROJECT

LCD: List of PrrlortvProiectn Pronosed for Financing Under Prolect %Tk 1l1l1ionl iby Zila Parlhadl3

oad Work2 Bridges Culverg s RetaininsWallc Drains Other Works Tet.Dl 5c hemL:. District No. Cost No. CoAL No. Coat No. Coot No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost

1. Dhaka 11 1.825 3 0600 1 0.075 - - 15 2.500 2 Mymensingh 2 1.400 1 0.92D ------3 2.320 3. Jlasipur 1 0.900 - - - - 1 0.900 4. Tangail I 0.400 2 1.304 ------3 1.704 5. Faridpur 1 0.500 -- - 1 0.500 6. Chittagong 4 0.500 3 1.513 7 1.153 ------14 3.166 7 Xhagrachari ------2 0.255 - - _ _ 2 0.255 8. Noakhali 5 1.449 3 0. B77 6 1.397 ------14 3.723 9. Coamilla 3 0.850 4 1.248 ------7 2.098 10. Sylhet - - - - 11 0.727 ------11 0.727 11. Rajchahi 4 0.650 ------4 0.650 12. Rangpur 3 1.500 1 0.500 ------4 2.000 13. Dinsjpur 3 1.530 ------3 1.530 14. Bogra 3 1.005 - - 1 0.095 - 4 1.100 15. Pabna 4 1.860 1 0.180 ------5 2.040 16. Khulna 8 1.657 - - 1 0.043 - - - - - 9 1.700 17. Jescore 4 0.650 ------4 0. 650 18. Kuabtia 3 1.200 ------3 1.200 19. Barisal 3 1.549 1 0.251 ------4 1.80o 20. Patuakhali 5 0.161 20 1.108 3 0.131 ------28 1.400 21. Bandarban Program to be determined 22. Rengamati Program to be determined

Total 68 19.586 39 8.501 30 3.621 2 0.255 - - - 139 31.963 US$ equivalent 0.753 0.327 0.139 0.010 - - 1.229

Notes: 1. Total of USS5.70 n (1.23 by Zilla Parisheds and 4.470 by Municipalities) compares with allocation under the proposed project of USSb.00M. LCD is reviewing further proposals from the districts and municipalities and the final figure will amount to US$6.00N equivalent. 2. Source: a) List of Flood Damged Roads and Structures Schemes in 22 Zille Parishads (1984-1985). b) List of Flood Damaged Roads and Structures Schemes in 78 Pourasbavas (1984-85). Both issued February 1985. -SO-

Tableo 4 Page 2

(Tk million)Cby Municipality)

Netsaining Total Hun icipalit y/ PRntY-9fli. URII S~LLYMLUL-WAUL .YdI .. ranflt QLhkaL.Szhs Jshmin District NE). Cost Nis. Coat No. Cast Nu. Cast No. Cont No. Costt No. Coat

Naryaysgonj 37 3.113 ------37 3.113 Haniligonj I 1.100 - - - - I 0.5514 - - 3.984 Hunnibigonj 22 0, 367 ------2 0. 367 Tangi 8 3.206 - - - - - 0.092 - -9 3.296 NorHhtingdi Programi to be determined Subtotal ror DIIMCA 48 7.786 - - -- -2 0.976 SD5 6.762

Nymetnaingh 17 0.969 - 6 0. 074 3 0.074 6 0.333 - 32 1.450 fia raib 1, 0.761 - - - 2 0.338 - - 8 1. 099 Bajitpur 7 0.R03 - -I 0. 122 - - 1 0.025 - -9 0.950 Netrokonar 14 0.985 - -6 0.200 - -1 0.032 - 21 1.217 KuktaRacha 1 0.300 ------1 0.300 Kisthoru'gonj 1 0.051 2 2.150 ------3 2.201 Hohungonj 4 0.586 3 0.087 6 0.227 - - -- -13 0.900 Gouripur 4 0.272 1 0.065 - - I 0.111 - - 1 0.252fj 7 0.700 Subtotal for HYl4ENSInGII 54 4.727 6 2.302 19 0.623 6 0.52 3 8 0.390 1 0.252 94 8.817

Jamuolpur 4 2.400 ------4 2.400 Sherpur 2 1.975 ------2 1.975 Subtotal for JANALPUR 6 4.375 ------6 4.375

Tangail 4 3.341 ------4 3.341 Gopalpur 2 1.154 ------2 1.154 Subtotal for TANGAIL 6 4.525 ------6 4.525

Faridpur 19 2.251 ------19 2.251 Rajbari 7 1.650 ------7 1.650 M'adaripur 7 1.344 ------7 1. 34 Gopalgonj Program to be determined Subtotal for PARIOPUR 33 5.245 ------33 5.245 Table 4 P.8g03

FL2OP UiIIAIITLITAIJOKPI3OJK.T lGDa List of 1'rier1tiyPrgigcts P'ronos.d[or FJInancinaUndftL_Pro[nJg (Tk million)(byMlunicipality)

Retaining Totsal Municipal ity/ PW2ei1Wkv ilXAOiu.t AX1IuJUL. .Y6Ij.L- 1xAiJlL- 20MfRLhJLs hJ11L1. District No. cost Nu. Cost No. Caist No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Coat

2 D.372 ------2 0.372 Subtotal for CHITTAGONG 2 D.37?2 2 0. 372

Noskhiali 3 3.186 ------3 1.186 Foni 1 0.648 ------1 0.648 Chaumunhani 4 1.52J 4 1.521 Lakshmip%r 10 0.950 1 0l.600 - -- -I 1.550 Subtotal for NOAIIALI IN 4.305 1 0.600 - - - - -19 4.905

Comilla 12 2.453 ------12 2.453 Chandpuc 4 D.643 - - -1 0.421 - - - -5 1.0D64 Brahmanbaria 10 1.237 - -- -2 0.230 2 0.235 - -14 1.702 Lsksham Program to be determined Subtotal for COMILLA 26 6.333 - -- -3 0.651 2 0.235 - -31 5.219

Sylhet 5 1.323 ------5 1.323 Sreemangol 1 0.549 ------1 01549 Kaulvibazar 23 1.451 1 0.349 - -1 0.063 - - -25 1.863 Sunamgonj 6 0.453 ------6 0.453 llabigonj 2 D.263 ------I 0.073 - -3 0.336 Subtotal for SYLHET 37 4.039 1 0.349 - -1 0.063 1 0.073 - 40 4.524

Rtajahahi 10 4.391 - - 3 0.218 11 2.002 3 0.736 -27 7.347

Notorei 2 1.084 ------2 1. 084 N4awabgonj 7 3.869 I 0.181 ------8 4.050 Naogaon Program to be determined Subtotal for RAJSNAHI 19 9.344 - -4 0.399 11 2.002 3 0.736 - -37 12.481 -52-

Table 4 P?ge 4

FLOOD ISHABIALITATIONPROJ6CT

LWD: Llt of Prloritv Proisct 1ronoued fgr FinpiicinrtUnder Proiect (Tk million) (by municipality)

Retaining Total Municipality/ RooidWorks .B.idL Culvertl .Jll Dr.inIL Other.Works Schem2s District No. Coat No. Cost No. Coet No. Cost No. Cost No. Coot No. Coat

Rangpuir 28 1.858 1 0.078 29 0.414 - _ _ _ _ _ 58 2.350 Gaibandha a 1.008 - - - 3 0.242 - - 11 1.250 ICurigram 4 1.045 ------1 0.135 1 0. I OLk 6 1.350 Nllphammri 4 1.1 04 - - 1 0.024 1 0.059 1 0.068 - - 7 1.255 Lalmonirhat 8 1.300 ------8 1.300 Saidpur 3 1.342 ------3 1.342 Subtotal for RANCPUR 55 7.657 1 0.07S 30 0.438 1 0.059 5 0.445 1 0.170 93 8.847

Dinajpur 13 1.518 2 0.072 1 0.039 - - 6 0.623 - - 22 2.252 Thakurgaon 7 1.050 ------7 1.050 Fulbari 6 0.348 - - 11 0. 387 - - 10 0.302 - - 27 1.037 Parbatipur 6 0. 824 - - 2 0. 01 - - I 0. 007 - - 9 0.849 Subtotal for DINAJPUR 32 3.740 2 0.072 14 0.444 - - 17 0.932 - - 65 5.188

Bogra 10 0.981 - - 19 0.164 15 1.357 2 0.173 - - 46 2.675 Joypurhat 7 0.568 - - 6 0.131 - - 1 0.006 - - 14 0.705 Sherpur 2 0.160 - - 1 0.024 1 0.057 - - - - 4 0.241 Subtotal for BOGRA 19 1.709 - - 26 0.319 16 1.414 3 0.179 - - 64 3.621

Pabun 51 2. 805 ------51 2.805 Serajgonj 2 0.284 ------3 1.816, 5 2.1DO lthurdi 4 2.900 ------4 2.900 Subtotal for PABNA 57 5.989 ------3 1.816 60 7.805

Satkhira 34 4.200 ------34 4.200 Mongla 4 1.450 ------4 1.450 Bagerhat Program to be determined Subtotal for KIHULA 38 5.650 ------38 5.650 -53-

Table 4 Page 5

DANCIADCSH

FLOODNRIAILITATION PROJECT

LD: List of PrioritX Projact.Proposed fog Financina Under Protect (Tk million)(by Municipality)

Retaining Total Municipality/ Road Works Bridges CuLvertc Walls Draing Other W;rksu schem District No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost

Jemsors 28 2.072 - - 2 0.06n - - - - I 0.02114. 31 2.161 Nagura 4 0.300 ------4 0.300 Nrail 7 1.876 - - 4 0.224 ------11 2.100 Jhenaidah 20 1. 825 ------1 0.025 - - 21 1. 50 0otcbandpur 5 0.750 ------5 0.730 Hoheshpur 3 0.700 ------3 0.700 Kahli 5 1.248 - - 7 0.253 - - I 0.100 13 1. 601 Bubtotal Eor .3385031 72 B.771 - - 13 0.545 - - 2 0.125 1 0.021 88 9.462

Euuhtis 8 3.086 ------a 3. 086 Rumarkhbli 3 1.28 ------3 1. 281 :oherpur 1 0.684 ------I 0. 664 Nheramara 8 1.043 - - 3 0.068 - - - - - 11 1.111 Chaudauga Program to be determined Subtotal for KUSUTIA 20 6.094 - - 3 0.068 ------23 6.162

Barisal 33 3.338 - - 1 0.055 ------34 3.393 Jhalakati I 0. 820 - - - - 1 0. 820 Bhola 6 0.650 - - 2 0.100 - - - - _ 8a 0.750 Pirojpur 2 0.252 1 0.167 1 0.028 1 0.214 - - I 0.289L& 6 0.950 Subtotal for BARISAL 42 5. 060 1 0.167 4 0.183 1 0.214 - - 1 0.289 49 5.913

Patualchali 20 1.599 1 0.030 1 0.021 ------22 1.650 Barguna 8 0.975 5 0.191 2 0.142 ------15 1. 308 Subtotal for PATUAREALI 28 2.574 6 0.221 3 0.163 - 37 2.958

Bandarba, 13 1.447 ------13 1. 447 Subtotal for BANDARBAN 13 1.447 ------13 1.447

Ranga8 ti Program to be determined

Total 625 97.742 18 3.789 116 3.182 39 4.926 43 4.091 7 2.548 848 116. 278 USS equivalent 3.759 0.146 0.122 0.189 0.157 0.098 4.472

/ Tin shed houses for aweepera quarters at Couripur Pourashava. Lk Recoostruction of turigram Poureahava Bazar. /c Construction of Ebuterdiar bazar, Memuabazar market and Behirgola bazar in Birajgonj Pourashava. 1d Earthwork for slaughter house in Jeseore Pourashava. /e Construction of a platform over the retaining wall at Dauder Khal in Pirojpur Pouranhava. -54-

ANNEX 5 Tablei Page 1

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATIONPROJECT

ExpendituresEligible for Reimbursementand EstimatedDisbursements

EligibleExpenditures EstimatedDisbursements

Purpose/Agency US$ M Tk. M US$ M Tk. H

1. BWDB El[il Works (General)

Base 1/ 345.87 Less value of WFP Wheat 2/ (106.52) Adjusted Base 239.35 PhysicalContingencies 3/ 23.94 Price Contingency4! 20.34

Sub-total 10.91 283.63 10.36 269.45

Town ProtectionWorks

Base 5/ 78.00 Price Contingency 6.54

Sub-total 3.25 84.54 3.09 80.31

Consultants6/

Works Selection7/ .02 .49 .02 .46

1/ From BiDB Flood Damage Repair Estimate (FDRE) 1984-85. Total cost Tk. 388.7 million; less Tk. 42.8 milliornfor town protectionworks includedin estimate. 2/ World Food Program (WFP) has provided 12,049.6metric tons of wheat in FY85 to partiallymeet cost of BWDB program. A similar contributionis assumed for FY86, i.e. a total of 24,100 tons. Total wheat requirementestimated by FDRE is 32,574 tons and valued at US$170 per ton (Tk. 4,420), the cut.ent official issue price. The balance of 8,474 tons will have to be replacedby cash provided under proposed IDA credit. Consequently,base cost has been adjusteddownwards by value of wheat already provided or assumed to be provided in FY86 by WFP. 3/ 10 percent. 4/ Averagesout at foreigncosts 7 percent;local costs 9 percent. 5/ Base program limitedto Tk. 78 million. 6/ Less duties and taxes. 7/ Completed. -55- ANNEX5 55 ~~~~~~TableI Page 2

Eligible Expenditures Estimated Disbursements

Purpose/Agency US$ M Tk. US$ M Tk. N

1. BWDB Works Supervision

Base 11.57 Physical Contingency 1.16 Price Contingency .93

Sub-total .53 13.66 .51 13.28

Preparedness Study

Base 6.89 Physical Contingency .70 Price Contingency .51

Sub-total .31 8.10 .31 8.02

Total 3WDB 15.02 390.42 14.29 371.52

2. RHD Civil Works

Base 369.55 Physical Contingency 36.95 Price Contingency 31.41

Sub-total 16.84 437.91 16.00 416.01

Consultants 6/ Works Selection 7/ .05 1.38 .05 1I 4

Works Supervision Base 11.57 Physical Contingencies 1.16 Price Contingencies .93

Sub-total .53 13.66 .51 13.28

Equipment Base 55.70 Physical Contingency 5.57 Price Contingency 4.39

Sub-total 2.52 65.66 1.64 42.68

Total RHD 19.94 518.61 18.20 473.31

3. LGD Civil Works Base 8/ 156.00 Price Contingency 13.26

Sub-total 6.51 169.26 6.18 160.79

6/ Less duties and taxes. 7/ Completed. 8/ Base program limited to Tk. 156 million. ANNEX 5 -56- Table 1 Page 3

Eligible Expenditures Estimated Disbursements

Purpose/Agency US$ M Tk. N US$ M Tk. M

1. Consultants 6/ Works Selection .70 Works Supervision Base 8.46 Physical Contingency .85 Price Contingency .76

Sub-total .41 10.77 .38 9.79

Total LCD 6.92 180.03 6.56 170.58

2. IWTA Civil Works

Base 2.85 Physical Contingency .29 Price Contingency .24

Sub-total .13 3.38 .12 3.21

Equipment Base 49.60 Physical Contingencies 4.96 Price Contingencies 3.87

Sub-total 2.25 58.43 1.46 37.98

Total IWTA 2.38 61.81 1.58 41.19

All Agencies Engineering and Administration Base 84.60 Physical Contingency 8.46 Price Contingency 7.61

Total Engineering & Administration 3.87 100.67 - -

PROJECT TOTAL 48.13 8/ 1251.54 8/ 40.64 1056.60

6/ Less duties and taxes. against which disbursements would not be made. 8/ Compares with US$48.23 million and Tk. 1,254 million shown in summary cost table in text. Differences due to rounding in summary table. -57-

ANNEX5 Appendix 1 Page 1

BANCLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Drainage, Flood Control, Irrigation and Town Protection Schemes

Scope of Engineering Consultancy

1. Consultants would be required to work with BWDB and with approval of BIDB's designated officer(s) to assist in the implementation of the IDA financed Flood Rehabilitation Project. Specifically, the consultants would be responsible for:

(i) checking designs, plans and estimates for the restoration work on irrigation, drainage, flood control and town protection structures prepared by the field divisions after October 1984. This will include conducting field checks; and depending on the complexity of the restoration work in question (see paragraphs 4 and 5 below) the consultants will be responsible for redesign, preparation of plans and cost estimating;

ii) establishing with BWDB a list of works -- completed, underway or planned - that met the criteria agreed between the Government and IDA for financing under the project and preparing a plan for the completion of these works before end-June 1986;

(iii) preparing specifications and tender documents for listed works and assisting in the subsequent evaluation of bids, and ensuring that tendering and other procurement procedures are consistent with the Project Development Credit Agreement and the "Guidelines for Procurement under World Bank Loans and Credits";

(iv) assisting in construction supervision and quality control and monitoring and reporting physical and financial progress;

(v) checking progress bills of contractors when required;

(vi) monitoring the preparation of claims for reimbursement by IDA, estimating backlogs and assisting in clearing backlogs; and

(vii) preparing a project completion report in accordance with guidelines provided by IDA. -58- ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Page 2

2. The consultant's degree of responsibility for items (i) through tv) will be based on the compLexity of each individual sub-project and the estimated cost of restoration. Details are given in paragraph 4 below.

3. The consultancy will be provided preferably by a local consultancy firm with extensive experience in the construction of drainage, flood control, irrigation and town protection works. It is expected, however, that the position of associate team leader would be filLed by an enginer provided by a similarly 4u:alifiedforeign consulting firm. TLe consultants will provide the following specialist and sub-professional staff:

(i) one senior civil engineer speciaLized in the construction of hydraulic works associated with drainage, flood control, irrigation and town protection works who will lead the team;

(ii) one senior civil engineer qualified similarly as in (i) who would act as associate team leader;

(iii) five mid-level construction engineers similarly qualified as the team leader but with about ten years experience. These engineers will be stationed to direct operations as follows:

(a) for the South Eastern Zone, one at Comilla and one aE Dhaka,

(b) for the Southern Zone, one at KhuLna and one at Barisal, and

With the assistance of junior engineers and sub-assistance engineers (see below), the mid-level engineers would be responsible for the activities described in paragraph 1 items (i) through (v);

(iv) ten junior construction engineers with degrees in civil engineering and a minimum of five years experience in the construction of hydraulic structures;

(v) thirty sub-assistant engineers with a diploma of civil engineering and a minimum of ten years experience in the construction of hydraulic structures; and

(vi) four draughtsmen and appropriate administrativeand accounting support staff at the office of the team leader and the five field offices.

4. To determine the degree of responsibility of the consultants, project works would be classified as follows:

(i) works costing less than Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000); -59- ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Page 3

(ii) works costing Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000), and up to Tk 7.5 million (US$300,000);

(iii) worka costing over Tk 7.5 million (US$300,000); and

(iv) works of a complex nature such as major regulators, major protective measures at hydraulic structures, construction of groynes, spurs, closures, and revetments to protect against erosion of river or ocean-side banks, and all other town protection works.

5. For works in category (i) the consultant will be responsible for limited supervision during construction, but will be responsible for the preparation of a simple completion report containing appropriate data and costs and for the physical inspection and certification as satisfactory of the completed works. For works in categories (ii) and (iv) he will be responsible for the field checking of engineering surveys, assessing the adequacy of engineering proposals, reviewing the detailed designs, estimates and tender documents, supervision and preparation of a completion report. For works in category (iii) the consultant will additionally be responsible for the design of the works, preparation of plans and estimates and of a program for implementation. In the case of works costing over Tk 13 million and all town protection works, the consultants will be responsible for preparing the description of the works (supported by appropriate data and plans) that would support a request to IDA by BWDB for financing approval.

6. The consultants will pay particular attention to:

Hydraulic Structure

(a) excavation of foundations; (b) piling or sinking of caissons; (c) fixing of forms and reinforcements; and (d) quality control in concreting.

Retirements, Closures and Repairs to Breaches

(a) selection of borrow areas; (b) stripping of borrow areas and embankment base; and (c) compaction.

7. For construction supervision the consultant will assure that suitable construction procedures and inspection standards are established and followed.

8. Rehabilitation work commenced in October 1984 and a major portion will be completed before June 30, 1985. Some works such as the construction of new regulators, revetments and protection works may have to be carried over to FY86. Consequently, the consultants will commence work in March 1985 with the team specified in paragraph 3, and work for a period of four months -60- ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Page 4 up to June 30,1985. Thereafter, and until December 31, 1985, the team will be reduced to the team leader, associate team leader, and one mid-level engineer with appropriate support staff. The full team will be fielded subsequently from January 1, 1986, to April 30, 1986. Total man-months to be provided by the consultants are listed below:

Category Man-months

ti) Team Leader (local specialist) 16

(ii) Associate Team Leader (expatriate) 16

(iii) Mid-Level Engineers (5) 46

(iv) Junior Engineers (10) 80

(v) Sub-Assistant Engineers (30) 240

(vi) Draughtsmen (4) 32

Total: 430

9. BWDBwill provide the consuLtants with the following support:

(i) office accommodation at Dhaka for the team leader and his staff and for the five construction field units;

(ii) all records and reports on the damage to BWDB infrastructure during the 1984 floods;

(iii) details of existing procedures for construction supervision, design manuals, standard specificationsand proforma tender documents.

10. The consultant will be responsible for:

(i) transport of consultant personnel in Dhaka and at the field units;

(ii) office and drawing equipment;

(iii) operation and maintenance of vehicles; and

(iv) stationery, printing, etc.

11. The consultant will be responsible for the submission of:

(i) a concise monthly report that, inter alia, will update the list of "approved" works; -61- ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Page 5

(ii) a quarterly report on physical and financial progress;

(iii) completion reports for each sub-project; and

(iv) a Project Completion Report prepared in association with BWDB in accordance with IDA guidelines. -62-

ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 1

BANCLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Road Schemes

Scope of Engineering Consultancy

1. ConsuLtants will be engaged to assist RHD in implementationof the IDA-financed Flood Rehabilitation Project. Specifically, the consultants will be responsible for:

(i) checking designs, plans and estimates for the restoration work on roads and associated structures prepared by the field divisions after October 1984. This work will include conducting physical checks in the field;

(ii) establishing with RHD a list of works -- completed, underway or planned -- that meet the criteria agreed between the Government and IDA for financing under the project and preparing a plan for the completion of these listed works before end-June 1986;

(iii) assisting field divisions in preparing specificationsand tender documents for listed works and in the subsequent evaluation of bids, and ensuring that tendering and other procurement procedures are consistent with the Project Development Credit Agreement and the "Guidelines for Procurement under World Bank Loans and Credits";

(iv) assisting in construction supervision and quality control, monitoring and reporting physical and financial progress;

(v) checking progress bills of contractors when required;

(vi) monitoring the preparation of claims for reimbursement by IDA, estimating backlogs and assisting in clearing backlogs;

(vii) preparing a project completion report in accordance with guidelines provided by IDA; and

(viii) advising RHD on the selection of road construction equipment, assisting in the preparation of tender documents and in the evaluation of bids. -63- ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 2

2. The consultancy will be provided preferably by a local consultancy firm with extensive experience in road works in Bangladesh, in particular the compacted filling of embankment breaches, the resectioning, strengthening and protecting of eroded embankments; reconstructionof damaged culverts, bridges and retaining walls; and the general construction and surfacing of roads, both HBB and bitumen surfaced. It is expected, however, that the position of associate team leader would be filled by an enginer provided by a similarly qualified foreign consulting firm. The consultants will provide the following specialist and sub-professional staff:

(i) one senior civil engineer specialized in the construction of road works in Bangladesh;

(ii) one senior civil engineer specialized in the construction of road works in Bangladesh or in an environment with similar soil and drainage characteristics who would act as associate team leader;

(iii) four mid-level construction engineers similarly qualified as the team leader but with about ten years experience. These engineers would be stationed to direct operations in each of RHD's operational zones. With the assistance of junior engineers and sub-assistant engineers (see below) the mid-level engineers would be responsible for the activities described in paragraph 1 items (i) through (v);

(iv) five junior construction engineers with degrees in civil engineering and a minimum of five years experience in the construction of road works;

(v) twelve sub-assistantengineers with a diploma of civil engineering and a minimum of ten years experience in the construction of road works; and

(vi) four draughtsmen and appropriate administrative and accounting support staff at the office of the team leader and the four field offices.

3. To determine the degree of responsibility of the consultants, project works would be classified as follows:

(i) works costing less than Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000);

(ii) works costing over Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000), and up to Tk 13 million (US$500,000);and

(iii) works costing over Tk 13 million (US$500,000).

4. For works in category (i) the consultant will be responsible for limited supervision during construction, but will be responsible for the -64- ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 3 preparation of a simple completion report containing appropriate data and costs and for the physical inspection and certification as satisfactory of the completed works. For works in categories (ii) and (iii) he will be responsible for the field checking of the proposals and estimates, assessing their adequacy, redesign where appropriate, preparation of the tender documenLt, supervision of implementationand preparation of a completion report. In the case of works in category (iii) the consuLtant will be responsible for preparing the description of the works (supported by appropriate data and plans) that wouLd support a request to IDA by RHD for financing approval. The consultants will pay particular attention to:

a) compaction of reconstructedand resectionef'embankments;

b) adequacy of redesign and quality of construction of protective works in particular retaining walls and palisading;

c) quality of road surfacing works; and

d) suitability of bridging solutions, in particular proposals for use of portable steel bridging.

5. For construction supervision the consultant will assure that suitable construction procedures and inspection standards are established and followed.

6. Rehabilitation work started in October 1984 and a substantial portion will be compLeted before June 30, 1985. The remaining works will be undertaken in the 1985/86 dry season to be carried over to FY86. Consequently, the consultant wiLl comence work in April 1985 with the team specified in paragraph 2 above, and work fo- a period of 15 months up to July 1986. The team leader, the four mid-level engineers and appropriate support staff will provide services for one additional month to complete the Project Completion Report.

Category Man-months

(i) Team Leader (local specialist) 16

(ii) Associate Team Leader (expatriate) 15

(iii) Mid-Level Engineers (4) 64

(iv) Junior Engineer (5) 75

(v) Sub-Assistant Engineers (12) 200

(vi) Draughtsmen (4) 61

Total: 431 -65- ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 4

7. RHD will provide the consultants with the following support:

(i) all records and reports on the damage to BWDB infrastructure during the 1984 floods; and

(ii) details of existing procedures for construction supervision, design manuals, standard specifications and proforma tender documents.

8. The consultants will be responsible for:

(i) transport of consultants personnel in Dhaka and at the field units; RHD will own the transports after completion of the work;

(ii) office accommodations at Dhaka for the team leader and his staff and for the four construction fieLd units;

(iii) office and drawing equipment;

(iv) operation and maintenance of vehicles; and

(v) stationery, printing, etc.

9. The consultant will be responsible for the submission of:

(i) a concise monthly report that, inter alia, would update the list of "approved" works;

(ii) a quarterly report on physical and financial progress;

(iii) completion reports for each completed works; and

(iv) a Project Completion Report prepared in association with RHD and in accordance with IDA guidelines. -66-

ANNEX 5 Appendix3 Page 1

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATIONPROJECT

LCD Schemes

Scope of EngineeringConsultancy

1. Consultantswill be engaged to assist LGD/LGEBin implementationof the IDA-financedFlood RehabilitationProject. Specifically,the consultants will be responsiblefor:

vi) checkingdesigns, plans and estimatesfor the restorationwork on roads and other structurescontained in the list of priority restorationactivities prepared by LGEB from the submissions made by the Districtsand Municipalitiesin January/February. This work will includeconducting physical checks in the field;

(ii) establishingwith LGD/LGEBa list of works (completed,underway or planned)that meet the criteriaagreed between the Government and IDA for financingunder the projectand preparinga plan for the completionof these listedworks beforeend-June 1986;

(iii) assistingdistrict and municipalengineering staff and LGEB in preparingspecifications and tenderdocuments for listedworks and in the subsequentevaluation of bids, and ensuringthat tenderingand other procurementprocedures are consistentwith the ProjectDevelopment Credit Agreement and the "Guidelinesfor Procurementunder World Bank Loans and Credits";

(iv) assistingin constructionsupervision and qualitycontrol and monitoringand reportingphysical and financialprogress;

(v) checkingcontractors' progress bills and making recommendations for settlementof bills;

(vi) monitoringthe preparationof claims for reimbursementby IDA, estimatingbacklogs and assistingin clearingbacklogs; and

(vii) preparinga projectcompletion report in accordancewith guidelinesprovided by IDA. -67- ANNEX 5 Appendix 3 Page 2

2. The consultancywill be providedpreferably by a local consultancy firm with extensiveexperience in road works in Bangladesh,in particular the compactedinfilling of embankmentbreaches, the resectioning,strengthening and protectingof erodedembankments; reconstruction of damaged culverts, bridgesand retainingwall.; and the generalconstruction and surfacingof roads, both HBB and bitumen surfaced. It is expected,however, that the positionof associateteam leaderwill be filled by an enginerprovided by a similarlyqualified foreign consulting firm. The consultantswill provide the followingspecialist and sub-professionalstaff:

(i) one senior civil engineerspecialized in the constructionof road works in Bangladeshor in an environmentwith similar soil and drainage characteristics;

(ii) one senior civil engineerqualified similarly as in (i) who would act as associateteam leader;

(iii) two mid-levelconstruction engineers similarly qualified as the team leader but with about ten years experience. These engineerswill be stationedto directoperations in each of LCD/LCEB'soperational zones. With the assistanceof junior engineersand sub-assistantengineers (see below), the mid-level engineerswill be responsiblefor the activitiesdescribed in paragraph1 items (i) through tv);

(iv) three junior constructionengineers with degrees in civil engineeringand a minimum of five years experiencein the constructionof road works;

(v) ten sub-assistantengineers with a diplomaof civil engineering and a minimum of ten years experiencein the constructionof road works; and

(vi) one draughtsmanand appropriateadministrative and accounting support staff at the office of the team leaderand the four field offices.

3. To determinethe degreeof responsibilityof the consultants,project works would be classifiedas follows:

(i) works costingless than Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000);

(ii) works costingover Tk 1.25 million (US$50,000),and up to Tk 12 million (US$500,000);and

(iii) works costingover Tk 12 million (US$500,000).

4. For works in category(i) the consultantswill be responsiblefor Limitedsupervision during construction, but will be responsiblefor the preparationof a simple completionreport containingappropriate data and costs and for the physicalinspection and certificationas satisfactoryof -68- ANNEX 5 Appendix 3 Page 3 the completed works. For works in categories (ii) and (iii) he will be responsible for the field checking of proposals and estimates, assessing their adeqtuacy,redesign where appropriate, preparation of the tender documents, supervision of implementationand preparation of a completion report. In the case of works in category (iii) the consultanta will be responsible for preparing the description of the works (supported by appropriate data and plans) that would support a request to IDA by RHD for financing approval. The consultants will pay particular attention to:

(a) compacting of reconstructed and resectioned embankments;

(b) adequacy of design and quality of constructionof protective works in particular retaining walls and palisading;

(d) suitability of bridging solutions, in particular proposals for use of portable steel bridging.

5. For construction supervision the consultant will assure that suitable construction procedures and inspection standards are established and followed.

6. Rehabilitation works began in October 1984; however, a large portion of works will be undertaken in the 1985/86 dry season. The consuLtant will commence work in April 1985 with the team specified in paragraph 2, and work for a period of 16 months up to August 1986. The two mid-level and two of the three junior engineers would provide only 12 months each in this period concentrating their time at the peak of construction activity.

Category Man-months

(i) Team Leader (local specialist) 16

(ii) Associate Team Leader (expatriate) 16

(iii) Mid-Level Engineers (2) 24

(iv) Junior Engineers (3) 40

(v) Sub-Assistant Engineers (10) 120

(vi) Draughtsmen 16

Total: 232 -69- ANNEX 5 ipdpeldxx 3 Page 4

7. LGD/LGEB will provide the consultant with the following support:

(i) office accommodation at Dhaka for the team leader and his staff and for the four construction field units;

(ii) all records and reports relating to the priority list of projects;

(iii) detaiLs of existing procedures for construction supervision, design manuals, standard specificationsand proforma tender documents.

8. The consultant will be responsible fox:

(i) transport of consultant personnel in Dhaka and at the field units;

(ii) office and drawing equipment;

(iii) operation and maintenance of vehicles; and

(iv) stationery, printing, etc.

9. The consultants will be responsible for the submission of:

(i) a concise monthly report that, inter alia, would update the list of "approved" works;

(ii) a quarterly report on physical and financial progress;

(iii) completion reports for each completed works; and

(iv) a Project CompLetion Report prepared in associated with LGD/LGEB and in accordance with IDA guidelines. -70-

ANNEX 5 Appendix4 Page 1

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Flood Preparedness Study

Scope of Consultancy

Background

1. Bangladeshhas an extensiveflood controlsystem that undoubtedly generatesconsiderable benefits. This systemconsists mainly of permanent civil works which may be termeda "passive"flood controlsystem. However, there is scope for furtherdevelopment of the "active"system of maintenance of the physicalworks, continuousmonitoring of the passive systemin times of flood danger, rapid responseto preventimminent failures of the passive system,and once failureshave occurred,to channelflood water so as to minimizedamage. An effective"active" system would depend on good communications,ability to mobilizelarge work forcesat short notice, transport, and strategically located stockpiles of materials and equipment. Above all, it would require good management, in particular an ability to analyze available information and make on-the-spot decisions.

Objectives

2. A study would be undertakento identifymeans of improvingthe existing "active"system in Bangladesh. The studywould be financedunder the Flood Rehabilitation Project.

Counterpart Agency

3. The proposedstudy would, by its nature, involveseveral Ministries and agencies. Therefore, it would be appropriate that the study be administered by a central agency which would be a link to the concerned ministries and agencies. A small task force, consisting of representatives of all key relevant ministries and agencies, would be established for about six months to undertake, with the assistance of consultants, a study of the feasibility of developing a more effective "active" system. The task force would be headed by a senior civil servant nominated by the Government, and would work with the consulting team in the production of a joint report. -71- ANNEX 5 Appendix 4 Page 2

Terms of Reference- FeasibilityStudy 4. The consultantsand the task force,working as a team, would carry out the followingtasks:

I. Review of ExistingSituation

a) based on existingdata sources,such as MPO and the inventory of BWDB projectsin the pre-feasibilitystudy for the proposedBWDB SystemsRehabilitation Project, prepare a summaryof existingflood controlworks and indicateon maps the extent of areas affordedsome kind of protectionfrom floodingand evaluatethe quality of that protection;

b) identifythe Governmentagencies at the nationaland local level with responsibilitiesfor flood protection,alleviation of flood damage or the relief of flood affectedpopulations and define their assignedroles; and

c) describeand evaluateexisting systems for the operationof flood controlworks, monitoringof flood events,and mobilizationof efforts to reduce damage.

II. Proposalf or Strengtheningthe Flood PreparednessSystem

A. Identifyand describethe possibleelements of a systemto improve flood preparednessand to reduce flood damage. To this end, the followingaspects of the existingflood preparednesssystem might be considered:

a) flood forecastingand warning systemsat the nationaland local levels;

b) monitoringof water levelsat criticallocations;

c) patrollingof embankments,especially at night;

d) operabilityof water controlstructures, and availabilityof staff, especiallyat night;

e) operatingrules for water control structuresunder normal and emergencyconditions;

f) provisionsfor mobilizinglabor at short notice to prevent imminentfailures of embankmentsor structures;

g) stockpilingand mobilizationof materialsfor (f);

h) proceduresand logisticsfor evacuationof population;

i) improvementsin communications(roads, telephones, radio) needed to implementthe system;and -72- ANNE 5 Appendix 4 Page 3

j) inter-agencycoordination and commandstructure. B. Preparean order of magnitudecost eocimatefor a nationalsystem of the kind describedin A, or alternativecosts for alternativelevels of sophistication.

C. Determineorder of magnitudebenefits that would be derivedfrom the implementationor che proposedsystem.

III. Feasibilityof the Proposal

Identifyconstraints to the introductionof the proposal,including:

- social;

- governmentalprocedures (to be treatedin some detail);

- managerial;

- staffing;

- financial; and

- physical(e.g., comparison of responsetime of proposedsystem to rise time of fLood).

Describesteps that have to be taken to overcomeeach of these con- straintsand preparereommendations for bringingabout the desiredimprove- ments in the system. -73-

ANNEX 6 Page 1

Drainamo and Flood Control I Proiect (Cred it 864-BD)

The First Drainage and Flood Control Project became eff ective in October 1979; the original closing date was June 30, 1984 and hat been extended for onc year to June 30, 1985. The credit amount is IIS$19.0 million. Of the three subprojects included in the project, one of the bub- projects (Kolabashukhali)was completed in June 1983. For the other two subprojects (BrahmaputraRight Embankment (BRE) and Chenchuri Beel) project works will have to be carried over into FY86 and it is therefore proposed to postpone the credit closing date until June 20, 1986. Completion of BRE was delayed because of a major change in the course of the river Teesta, two years ago. Delays in execution of the Chenchuri Beel subproject was primarily because of land acquisition problems. The minimum of land ineeded has now been acquired and alternative solutions were identified in some locations. Construction ib proceeding satisfactorily.

Estimates of the total credit amount required have been decreased from the estimate at the time of appraisal of US$19.0 million to US$ 11.0 million. The main reasons for the US$8.0 million savings are the changes in exchange rate and a decrease in the cost of civil works from about US$18 million to US$14 million.

Drainage and Fllod Control II Credit 1184-BD)

The Second Drainage and Flood Control Project became effective in July 1982; the closing date is June 30, 1987. The credit amount is SDR 24.0 million. Construction of project facilities in all three subprojects (Chalan Beel, Satla Bagda and Hail Haor) has been seriously delayed due mainly to delays in land acquisition and to uncertainties over the size of the road component and the participation of the Food-For-Work (FFW) Program in the execution of the roads and drainage components. In addition, work has been temporarily halted on Hail Haor due to lack of reliable technical data which hampered detailed design work. Good progress has recently been made on the acquisition of land in Satla Bagda. Steps have also been taken to speed up land acquisition in Chalan Beel, allowing project construction to proceed. Additional land remains to be acquired and this problem will require continued monitoring. The problems over the size of the road component and the -74-

ANNEX 6 Page 2

participationof FFW have now been resolvedafter discussionsbetween IWDB, the Ministry,Planning Commission and ERD. The projectproformas have been revisedto providesufficient funds to completeall project componentsand agreementhas been reachedto reduce the participationof the FFW contribu- tion to a manageablesize. For the Hail Haor component,additional hydrological and topogaphical surveyswill be carriedout and changes in the projectdesign will be made accordingly. Due to changes in the exchange rate, it is expectedthat there will be savings in the creditof about SDR 6.0 million. A likelyreduction in the civil works componentof the Hail Haor subproject could result in some further savings. -75-

ANNEX 7

BANGLADESH

FLOOD REHABILITATION PROJECT

Data and Documents Available in Project File

1. Analysis of rainfall in Brahmaputra, Ganges, Meghna and South Eastern Hill basins.

2. Consultancy during implementation - Cost Estimates 91, 9?

INDIA BANGLADESH FLOOD REHABILITATIONPROJECT

* WaterLevel Statkons f ()~.l ) - | / / S RainfoalStations Flool Affected Area Primary Roads - - - -etePr Roods P.yOtlfRoods

' District Heodquarters - DistrictBourdries it Division Headquarters Division Boaies 1@ < Notional Capitol k-ternatial Boundaries

NVMOKOKA~ .\ L -'N NAQ N .AGA4t

GRA'

G S~~~~~~~~~~S

(N ~dW A ~6"S A ~t'~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~-N JHENA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~II 0

C2P3. r is ' IND IA{sZ)s * 2' 1 j

iff 31 AIVU i~~~~~~~~~~~ RA

C,w 1 -5IW.1 1 Tl 1 nstr.s ,rf It| r

*^t 4A1'4" IYI 3r dr.SP.ELl 11a . . f>

II^>.J,Y^'a I3f 31 E r _I , 'Pe eIIi*.v£ a m NV If

BANGADIS;, 7

INDIA I '8¢ 8uRMABoy of Bengal si

.,~~~~~~~~ O 10 20 30 40 50 AIUS 8 \ BURMA

-j2 -21 ~~0 20 40 CsO1' So KILOMETERS 2121'

SRILANKA ,, 91m r3