Influence of Diffusion of Fuel-Efficient Motor Vehicles on Gasoline Demand for Individual User Owned Passenger Cars
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Influence of Diffusion of Fuel-Efficient Motor Vehicles on Gasoline Demand for Individual User Owned Passenger Cars Takahiro SAKAGUCHI, Researcher Environment Group Introduction results are analyzed in an attempt to learn general consumers’ preference when buying a car and their Hand in hand with advancing motorization since concerns over fuel economy. Also, considering what the 1960s, Japan’s motor fuel demand has kept in- sorts of technologies are introduced in order to im- creasing rightward. Above all, gasoline demand grew prove fuel efficiency of private passenger cars, four remarkably along with ever-increasing ownership of cases were assumed to estimate gasoline consump- private passenger cars. In the 1990s gasoline demand tion in the years to 2015. swell a high 3.4%/year on average in reflection to a This time, the estimation covered gasoline con- growing number of passenger cars registered, heavier sumption of private passenger cars alone. Light cars weight of larger vehicles in new car sales, etc. and freight vehicles, among others, were out of the On the other hand, newer engine technologies, study scope. among others, have rapidly increased motor fuel effi- ciency in recent years. Including gasoline cars 1. Japan’s Gasoline Demand and mounted with direct injection engine and hybrid ve- New Fuel Efficiency Standards hicles, fuel-efficient vehicles are now on market after from 2010 Onward another. In anticipation of the “new fuel efficiency standards from 2010 onward” under the amended 1-1 Strong gasoline demand to date “Energy Conservation Act,” effective April 1999, the Japanese carmakers are expected to continue R&D Japan’s motor gasoline demand has stayed strong on fuel-efficient cars and their market introduction, to date, and private passenger cars have been respon- and fuel-efficient cars are likely to claim an increas- sible for more than 70% of it (Fig. 1-1). ing share in new car sales. This paper focuses on In general, gasoline consumption (demand) de- how gasoline consumption of private passenger cars pends on the number of gasoline cars registered, and can be affected by the emergence of fuel-efficient per vehicle mileage and fuel economy (= efficiency models (excl. light cars). To this end, questionnaire of fuel consumption). Of these determinants, the num- Fig. 1-1 Motor Gasoline Demand in Japan (1,000 kl) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 (FY) Private passenger cars Light cars Freight vehicles Commercial passenger cars Buses (Source) The Ministry of Transport (MOT), “Statistical Yearbook of Road Vehicle Transport” 1 ber of gasoline cars registered has been on the con- improved little (Fig. 1-5). Also, fuel efficiency while stant increase (Fig. 1-2). Though the vehicle makeup actual driving has been deteriorating since 1989 (Fig. can change in terms of displacement and vehicle class, 1-5). On top of the aforementioned factors, the dete- gasoline cars are likely to keep growing in total num- rioration can be attributed to the average driving speed ber for a while. Conversely, per vehicle mileage has getting slower due to worsening traffic jams, etc. (Fig. shortened in recent years partly because a growing 1-6). number of families own the plural number of cars In summary, it appears gasoline consumption has each (Fig. 1-3). Because an increasing popularity of increased overall because positive factors, particu- passenger cars with bigger displacement since the larly a growing number of passenger cars and dete- second half of the 1980s, typically higher-grade se- riorating fuel efficiency while actual driving, outrun dans and booming recreational vehicles (Fig. 1-4), the only negative factor, or shortening mileage per has offset carmakers’ R&D efforts for increasing fuel passenger car. efficiency, average fuel efficiency of new cars has been Fig. 1-2 Number of Passenger Cars Registered (1,000 cars) 60,000 Light passenger cars 50,000 Ordinary passenger cars Small passenger cars 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 (FY) (Source) The Ministry of Transport (MOT), “Statistical Yearbook of Road Vehicle Transport” Fig. 1-3 Per Vehicle Mileage and Per Household Ownership of Passenger Cars (Cars/household) (km/year) 1.2 11,600 No. of passenger cars owned 11,431 1.0 by each household 11,400 1.0 Per vehicle mileage 0.9 0.8 11,200 0.8 0.7 11,000 0.6 0.6 10,800 10 10,600 0.4 10,400 0.2 10,200 0.0 10,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 (FY) (Notes) 1. Includes diesel- and LPG-fueled vehicles. 2. Not include light cars. (Source) MOT, “Statistical Yearbook of Road Vehicle Transport,” the Association of Car Inspection and Registration, “Changing Numbers of Road Vehicles Registered in Japan” 2 Fig. 1-4 Gasoline Car Sales Makeup by Displacement (1,000 cars) 4,500 Under 1,000 cc 1,001 - 1,500 cc 4,000 1,501 - 2,000 cc 2,001 - 2,500 cc 3,500 Over 2,501 cc 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 (Year) (Source) The Association of Car Inspection and Registration, “Numbers of Registered Road Vehicles” Fig. 1-5 New Car Average Fuel Efficiency (10.15 mode) and Fuel Efficiency While Driving (km/l) 16.0 Fuel efficiency while actual driving (15.1) Average fuel efficiency of new cars (10.15 mode) 14.0 (13.5) 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.0 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.3 8.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2010 (FY) (Target) (Source) New-car average fuel efficiencies: Estimated by taking into account the FY 2000 and FY2010 targets, while based on various reference materials, incl. those available from the Fuel Efficiency Standards Subcommittee of the Road Vehicle Committee, a unit of the Council for Transport Technology. GHG reduction targets by sector in its “Master Plan 1-2 Global warming and mitigation efforts for Global Warming Control Measures.” As for the in the transportation sector increasingly energy-gulping transportation sector, the government set forth that its energy consumption inn To curb the growth of transport energy consump- 2010, put at 17.30 million kl (crude oil equivalent), tion has been counted as one of key subjects to com- should be curbed at 1995 levels (Fig. 1-8). bating environmental problems, particularly global Specific measures to be taken in the transporta- warming. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the COP3 tion sector are roughly divided into eight categories, (third session of the Conference of Parties to the including “improvement of distribution efficiency” and Framework Convention on Climate Change) in 1997, “traffic control.” Of them, the measures categorized requires Japan’s GHG emissions to be cut in 2008 - in “improvement of motor fuel efficiency” are expected 2012 by an average 6% from 1990 records. Given to increase efficiency as much as saving 4.50 million the requirement, the Japanese government set specific kl equivalent, about one fourths of the sector-wide 3 Fig. 1-6 Average Driving Speeds While Peak Hours in Major Cities (km/h) 40 Tokyo metropolitan wards 35 Yokohama Nagoya 30 Kobe 25 Hiroshima Fukuoka 20 15 10 1980 1985 1988 1990 1994 (FY) (Source) Nissan Motor, “Automotive Traffic 1998” (original text: Road Traffic Census) Fig. 1-7 Transport Energy Consumption by Carrier (1010kcal) 100,000 90,000 Private road vehicles Commercial road vehicles Freight trucks Buses 80,000 Railway Marine transport 70,000 Aircraft 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 (FY) (Source) EDMC, “Energy & Economy Statistical Handbook” Fig. 1-8 Japan’s Plan to Curb Transport Energy Use (Index: 1990 = 100) 140 Solid line shows actual 130 records.Solid dashed line -17.30 million kl shows a case of inaction (crude oil equivalent) 120 (116) (117) 110 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 (Year) (Source) The Council for Transport Technology, a report on “Tightening of Automotive Fuel Efficiency Standards” (December 1998) 4 Table 1-1 Transportation Sector’s CO2 Reduction Targets and Specific Measures Energy saving effect Item Specific measures (crude oil equivalent) Increase motor fuel Increase efficiency of energy use drastically by introducing the top 4.50 million kl efficiency. runner approach. Subsidies or tax incentives for the purchase of fuel-efficient Promote penetration of vehicles.Financial aids like low-interest loans provided by Japan 800,000 kl clean energy cars. Development Bank, etc. Technology development Promote R&D and dissemination of electric vehicles mounted with 400,000 kl from now on efficient lithium cells. Increase efficiency of trucking, while promoting domestic freight Improve efficiency of transport by ship and rail. Construct viable IT infrastructure for 3.40 million kl distribution. distribution, and reform commercial practice. Smoothen and optimize road traffic flows.To shift passenger Traffic control transport demand from private passenger cars to public 4.00 million kl transportation means, like rail and bus. Improve energy efficiency Promote R&D and introduction of less energy-consuming equipment 800,000 kl of transport means. for railway, ships and aviation. Trim traffic volumes involved in traveling on business (incl. commuting) by promoting telecommuting (home offices, satellite Promote telecommuting. 1.50 million kl offices, TV meetings, etc.) by taking advantage of information & telecommunication technologies. Campaigns to enlighten Get the public involved in energy conservation efforts through PR 1.90 million kl peoples activities on environment-conscious driving, etc.