Commercial fishing behavior under changing ocean conditions: Spatial analysis of the US west coast salmon fishery Cameron Speir1 and Alice Thomas-Smyth1,2

1NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2University of California, Santa Cruz

NAAFE Forum 2017 La Paz, Mexico How do (climate driven?) oceanographic changes affect fisheries? • Overall levels of landings or participation? • Distribution of landings or participation (e.g. northward)? • Intensity or characteristics of effort? • Longer trips • Change in fishing location • Northeast Pacific Ocean – US West Coast salmon fishery • Historical landings data (PacFIN, PSMFC) • Vessel movement data (subset of VMS data) • Linking Climate Drivers to Human Behavior/Systems

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2 Oceanographic drivers in the Northeast Pacific • Phenomena and data series • ONI • NPGO • PDO • Upwelling “Spring Transition Date” • Representative of future climate conditions – event studies

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 El Niňo Oceanic Niňo Index: Positive index value implies weaker upwelling and lower productivity

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4 North Pacific Gyre Oscillation • Low-frequency variation of sea surface height • Positive NPGO values are associated with increased equator ward flow, increased surface salinities, nutrients, and chlorophyll-a. Higher productivity.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5 US West Coast Commercial Salmon Fishery 2016 • 860 Vessels • $ 11.1 Million • 1.3 Million Pounds • $8.37 per pound (dressed)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6 Landings Levels

Landed Weight Coast-wide

25

20

15

MillionPounds

10

5 0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7 Landings Distribution

Catch-Weighted Mean Latitude of Catch Coast-wide

48

45

42

DegreesLatitude

39

36 33

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 Cointegration Tests Test for integration between salmon harvest, distribution, and oceanographic indicators

• Engle–Granger two-step method

1) Salmont = βOceant + εt 2) Unit root test on residuals

• Stationary residuals suggest cointegration

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9 Landings Levels

Landed Weight and Ocean Indicators

25

1.5

1.25

1

20

.75

.5

15

.25

0

ONIIndex

-.25

10

MillionPounds

-.5

-.75

5

-1

-1.25

0 -1.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

25

2.5

2

20

1.5

1

15

.5

0

10

NPGOIndex

MillionPounds

-.5

-1

5

-1.5

-2 0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10 Landings Distribution

Landings Distribution and Ocean Indicators

48

1.5

1.25

1

45

.75

.5

42

.25

0

ONIIndex

-.25

39

-.5

DegreesLatitude

-.75

36

-1

-1.25

33 -1.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

48

2.5

2

45

1.5

1

42

.5

0

39

NPGOIndex

-.5

DegreesLatitude

-1

36

-1.5

-2 33

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11 Vessel movement “analysis” – VMS data Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) • US West Coast Groundfish Fishery

• Since most vessels fish in multiple fisheries, coverage extends to other fisheries – like salmon • Matching VMS positions to salmon fishing trips is tedious, but possible

• High-resolution positional data

• Fishing intensity/effort per trip

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12 Vessel movement “analysis” – VMS data Salmon Fishery Coverage

Total VMS Total VMS Trips Covered Vessels Covered Trips Vessels

2008 1,919 46 2% 2008 345 19 6%

2009 3,031 274 9% 2009 493 64 13%

2010 5,803 864 15% 2010 875 139 16%

2011 8,373 703 8% 2011 1,076 94 9%

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14 Vessel movement “analysis” – VMS data

Median Days-at-Sea 2008 1.5 2009 3 2010 2 2011 2

Median Trip Length Miles Coast-wide Fort Bragg Newport North Puget Sound 2008 12 11 -- -- 2009 82 17 34 138 2010 56 19 61 84 2011 49 13 94 239

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

VMS Points Longitude by Region (Median and 10th Percentiles)

48

48

47

47

46

46

45

45

44

44

Degrees Latitude Degrees

43

43

42

42

41 41

Puget Sound 40

Columbia River

40 Central Oregon

Klamath

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

VMS Points Longitude by Region (Median and 10th Percentiles)

2011

2010 2009

Coast

Puget Sound

Columbia River 2008

-125.5 -125.0 -124.5 -124.0 -123.5

2011

2010 2009

Coast

Central Oregon

Klamath 2008

-125.5 -125.0 -124.5 -124.0 -123.5 Degrees Longitude

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19