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Lagos (Nigeria) Real Estate Investment Report Q3:2017

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Lagos (Nigeria) Real Estate Investment Report Q3:2017 Lagos (Nigeria) Real Estate Investment Report Q3:2017 The Search for Stability Over the last three years, Nigeria has experienced unprecedented volatility brought about by a fall in the oil price, poor policy decisions and political instability. We are only just emerging from recession and hopefully have learnt the hard lessons necessary to build a more robust, sustainable and broad based economy. We are finally beginning to see renewed international investor interest. Jim Rogers, a well-known international investor recently pointed to Nigeria as one his emerging/frontier market picks offering the potential for strong growth on the back of policy improvements1. Our latest report highlights the need for a stable economic environment as a basis for future growth. Eko Energy Estate, Eko Atlantic City, Victoria Island, Lagos MARKET SUMMARY: Investment International investors are once again beginning to take a closer look at opportunities in the Nigerian markets as they search for higher yields in distressed opportunities Prime Land Prime land prices have remained stable in Naira and Dollar terms with a low appreciation rate of just one per cent over the last year Commercial The downward re-pricing of office space rents in a weak market has brought the price point Office of Class B space low enough to allow access to a new audience of professional service firms formerly using converted residential accommodation for offices Student The sector offers high yields and stable cashflow on the back of strong demand and limited Housing supply. However financing challenges exist due to the long term nature of the investment and institutional preference for risk free treasury bills 1. INTRODUCTION NEWSFLASH> MCO Real Estate has re-branded as MCORE to better align itself towards the provision of certain services that may be perceived to fall outside a core real estate remit. Such services include our reach into alternative assets such as oil and gas and transport infrastructure. We have also recently launched our new improved website, MCORE.co to better serve our clients including highlighting investment opportunities, showcasing case studies and providing information on financial advisory services. Please check us out online and feel free to call us for further information on how we can help you in any of the following areas - Raising finance | Property Sales & Acquisitions | Investment Advisory Services | Feasibility Studies. We trust that you will find our latest report insightful and ask that you forward it to colleagues who have an interest in African real estate markets. 1 www.Realvision.com - Global Risks and Untapped Prospects - Jim Rogers Lagos Real Estate Investment Report Q3: 2017 2. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The economy grew by 0.55 per cent over the 2nd quarter signifying that we had finally emerged from recession after five consecutive quarters of negative growth. The price of crude stood at US$58 p/b by the end of the third quarter, the increased price and production increases allowing for an accrual of foreign reserves which stood at US$32.5Bn by the end of the third quarter an increase of a third on October 2016 lows of US$24Bn. An increase in the availability of dollars has also assisted the real economy and the manufacturing sector in particular. The Nigerian exchange rate has now been stable at $1/N305 for the past year moderating inflationary pressures which have fallen on a consistent month by month basis from a January high of 18.72 per cent to the current September figure of 15.98 per cent, albeit with considerable work to be done to bring inflation back to a long term single digit target. The economy is still very weak and policy initiatives that lead to a broader base for growth beyond oil are essential to make the economy more resilient to future shocks. Nigeria 5YR Economic Indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Oil Price ($/barrel) 111 100 53 42 52 46 58 Oil Production (Avg bpd/m) 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 External Reserves (US$Bn) 42.8 35.2 28.3 25.8 30.3 32.5 Exchange Rate, Official (US$1/N) 158 180 197 305 305 305 305 Exchange Rate, Parallel (US$1/N) 171 188 258 487 429 367 360 Monetary Policy Rate (MPR, %) 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.49 6.22 2.79 -1.51 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 GDP Growth Rate (Y-o-Y, %) -0.67 -1.49 -2.34 -1.73 -0.91 0.55 Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Inflation Rate (Y-o-Y, %) 17.26 17.24 16.25 16.1 16.05 16.01 15.98 CBN, NBS, OPEC figures are y ear or quarter end unless otherw ise stated 3. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT Local real estate and construction lending rates are hitting new highs of up to 36 per cent2. These high lending rates speak to the bank’s unwillingness to lend to the real sector based on their perception of risk compared to the high yields available from risk free treasury bills. They are also a reflection of the high percentage of non-performing loans within the banking system that have left the bank’s with considerable quantities of property that were used as collateral to secure a lot of the historical borrowing that took place prior to the recession. The banks are now seeking to off-load these distressed assets and are finding out that a considerable number of the asset current values have fallen well below the values of the outstanding loan amounts. For international investors whose returns are often benchmarked in dollars, the over-riding view is that of a long term trend in the fall of the Naira against the Dollar. Even where the investment is showing a strong Naira return, factoring in the long term depreciation of the local currency may turn an attractive Naira return into a less attractive dollar return. However, international investors are still driven to seek higher returns and are still drawn to the potential high returns in the Nigerian markets. Investors are currently staying away from long term investments where there is greater exposure to the potential of a depreciating Naira and are more attracted to investments that 2 www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2017/BSD/Deposit and Lending Rates in the Banking Industry as at September 8, 2017.pdf 2 Copyright © MCORE, 2017. All rights reserved Lagos Real Estate Investment Report Q3: 2017 can be turned around within a shorter time frame with the potential of an exit within three years via a sale or other exit. PRIME LAND Current Lagos Island prime land average sales prices in receding order are as follows; Eko Atlantic N524,000 / $1,700 psqm, Banana Island N385,000 / $1,261 psqm, Victoria Island N380,000 / $1,250 psqm, Ikoyi N369,000 / $1,210 psqm, Lekki Phase 1 N195,000 / $640 psqm, Oniru N168,000 / $550 psqm. Lagos Island Prime Land Prices (N/psqm, Oct 2016 - Sept 2017) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August September VI EKO ATLANTIC IKOYI BANANA ISL ONIRU LEKKI 1 Notes 1. Land value data is derived from advertised sales prices 2. Eko Atlantic prices are benchmarked in US$ and are blended waterfront, non-waterfront and secondary market prices 3. CBN USD/NGN official rate used for conversion Prices have remained stable over the last year showing a growth rate of only 1 per cent in both Naira and USD terms. Oniru has shown the strongest growth of 10 per cent while Victoria Island at the other end of the scale has fallen by 5 per cent over the last year. Eko Atlantic remains the most expensive of the locations we track with a 37 per cent premium above neighbouring Victoria Island. The premium reflects the improved standards of infrastructure in the Eko Atlantic City but is also reflective of Eko Atlantic land prices benchmarked in dollars. The gap between Victoria Island, Ikoyi and Banana Island prices has narrowed considerably with these areas falling within a price range of only 4 per cent in relation to each other. Oniru and Lekki Phase 1 prices continue to track each other, both becoming increasingly commercialised as smaller professional businesses convert residential units to office use as an alternative to higher rents prevalent in nearby Victoria Island. COMMERCIAL OFFICE The introduction of the new supply of Class A commercial office space to the Ikoyi and Victoria Island office markets over the last few years combined with a fall away in demand over the same period due to the recession has fermented competition between new higher quality Class A space and older historical Class A space. The new space has pushed the old Class A space down the rankings to re-emerge as Class B space with an attendant negative impact on achievable rents. 3 Copyright © MCORE, 2017. All rights reserved Lagos Real Estate Investment Report Q3: 2017 The new prime Ikoyi/Victoria Island space commands rents as high as $750 psqm, however, rents for Class B space formerly classed as A space have fallen from a high of up to $900psqm a couple of years ago to as low of $450 psqm in order to remain competitive. At these reduced prices, Class B rents are now becoming affordable to a wider array of businesses that used to occupy residential accommodation re-purposed as office space, allowing such businesses to migrate into purpose built office space at rents higher than but still comparable to former residential re-purposed office space.
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