IMF Country Report No. 21/168 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO REQUEST FOR A THREE-YEAR ARRANGEMENT UNDER July 2021 THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY; REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE UNDER THE STAFF MONITORED PROGRAM—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO In the context of the Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Review of Performance Under the Staff Monitored Program, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: • A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board. • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on July 15, 2021, following discussions that ended on May 27, 2021, with the officials of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 29, 2021. • An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff. • A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank. • A Supplementary Information of the Staff Report prepared by the IMF. • A Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. © 2021 International Monetary Fund PR21/217 IMF Executive Board Approves US$1.52 billion ECF Arrangement for the Democratic Republic of the Congo FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE • The COVID-19 pandemic continues to severely impact the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a fragile state with recurring health and security crises, high macroeconomic volatility, and weak institutions. • The IMF Board approved a SDR1,066 million (about US$1.52 billion) ECF arrangement for DRC. Approval of the ECF arrangement enables the immediate disbursement of about US$216.9 million to reinforce international reserves. • The three-year financing package will support an ambitious structural reform agenda aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth by stepping up domestic revenue mobilization, strengthening governance, and reinforcing monetary policy. Washington, DC – July 15, 2021: On July 15, 2021, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 3-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in an amount equivalent to SDR1,066 million (100 percent of quota or about US$1.52 billion). The ECF arrangement will support the authorities’ medium-term reform program aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, increasing fiscal space, and promoting a sustainable and private sector-led economic growth. Approval of the ECF arrangement enables immediate disbursement of about US$216.9 million to reinforce international reserves. This follows Fund emergency support to DRC under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) in December 2019, and April 2020 (for budget support), for a total of SDR533 million (50 percent of quota or US$731.7 million, see Press Releases No. 19/465 and 20/182). Economic activity decelerated sharply in 2020 because of COVID-19. The brunt of the pandemic was particularly felt in the non-mining economy, leading to a contraction in non- extractive GDP of 1.3 percent in 2020. Weak revenues and increased spending pressures linked to the pandemic and the free education initiative led to a sizable fiscal deficit. Inflation spiked, fueled by a rapid exchange rate depreciation, and gross official foreign exchange reserves decreased to less than two weeks of imports. A recent tightening of policies and a strong performance of the mining sector is supporting ongoing macroeconomic stabilization, but the near-term economic outlook remains uncertain and dependent on the evolution of the pandemic as well as on a stable political environment. The DRC government has articulated an ambitious, yet realistic structural reform agenda aimed at promoting robust and sustainable economic growth. The ECF arrangement will focus on three key areas: (i) stepping up domestic revenue mobilization to increase fiscal space for infrastructure and social spending; (ii) strengthening governance including natural resource management and transparency; and (iii) reinforcing the monetary policy framework and the central bank’s independence. The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze budget and project support from external partners. At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement: “The Congolese economy has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and is recovering, in part due to high mineral prices. The authorities have requested a new arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) to address protracted balance of payment needs and support reforms aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, increasing fiscal space, ensuring debt sustainability, and promoting sustainable and private sector-led economic growth. The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze financing from external partners. “The authorities are committed to creating fiscal space to address infrastructure and social needs, while maintaining a moderate risk of debt distress. Measures aim to enhance domestic revenue mobilization, by ensuring a properly functioning VAT, rationalizing non-tax and parafiscal charges, streamlining tax expenditures, and modernizing revenue administration. Spending discipline would help to increase social spending and avoid reliance on central bank financing. Prioritizing concessional financing and relief under the Debt Service Suspension Initiative would support debt sustainability. “Macroeconomic policies are appropriately aimed at maintaining low and stable inflation. Important measures include modernizing the monetary policy framework and strengthening the financial position, governance, and independence of the central bank. Measures are being taken to enhance the risk-based supervisory framework and the oversight of banks. The authorities’ aim to boost foreign exchange reserves while allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. “Strengthening governance, including natural resource management and transparency, remains crucial to support private sector-led growth. The authorities have made progress in publishing mining contracts and on COVID-19 related spending. Further efforts are needed to enhance the AML/CFT framework to meet global standards and measures to improve the resilience to climate change would be welcome.” DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO REQUEST FOR A THREE-YEAR ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE June 29, 2021 EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY; REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE UNDER THE STAFF MONITORED PROGRAM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a fragile state and vulnerable to recurrent shocks. Relations with the Fund have been quite active since early 2019, with a Staff Monitored Program (SMP) coupled with a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement in December 2019 and a second RCF disbursement in April 2020 to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. Economic activity decelerated sharply in 2020 because of the crisis and reserves decreased to less than two weeks of imports. President Tshisekedi requested a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement to support his medium-term reform program. Program objectives and modalities. Staff proposes a three year-arrangement under the ECF, with access equivalent to 100 percent of DRC’s quota (SDR 1,066.0 million) and semi-annual reviews. The ECF arrangement will meet protracted balance of payment needs and support the authorities’ medium-term reform program aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, including by strengthening international reserves, increasing fiscal space for infrastructure and social spending while maintaining a moderate risk of debt distress, and promoting a sustainable and private sector-led economic growth. It will also help catalyze budget support from external partners. Risk of debt distress remains moderate and capacity to repay to the Fund is adequate. Program policies. The key priorities of the ECF arrangement are (i) stepping up domestic revenue mobilization; (ii) strengthening governance including natural resource management and transparency; and (iii) strengthening the monetary policy framework and the central bank’s independence. Capacity development is crucial for program success. Staff views. Staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF arrangement. The Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies demonstrate program ownership and appropriate policies, as well as needed safeguards. Considering the highly uncertain environment that could reduce growth and external financing, the authorities have formulated contingency plans that protect priority social spending. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO Approved By Virtual discussions took place during May 6 to 27, 2021. The staff Annalisa Fedelino team comprised M. Villafuerte