April 2021

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The In April, Viet Nam will have the presidency of the Sanctions Committee. Security Council and Security Council. Other African issues include meetings on: Mercenarism Viet Nam has chosen to hold several signature • Mali, on the Secretary-General’s most recent 3 Status Update since our events during the month. A ministerial-level open MINUSMA report; March Forecast debate on mine action is anticipated with UN • The Great Lakes region, on the Secretary- 5 Women, Peace and Secretary-General António Guterres as a likely General’s bi-annual report on the Peace, Secu- Security briefer. A resolution is a possible outcome. rity and Cooperation Framework; 7 Mali A high-level open debate on enhancing coop- • Western Sahara, to receive a briefing on devel- eration between the UN and regional and sub- opments and MINURSO’s operations; and 8 Syria regional organisations, focusing on confidence- • Sudan/South Sudan, on the Secretary-Gener- 10 Great Lakes Region building measures and dialogue, is also planned. al’s report on the implementation of the man- 12 Mine Action Secretary-General Guterres, former Secretary- date of UNISFA. 13 Kosovo General Ban Ki-moon, and representatives of Regarding the Middle East, there will be the 14 Libya regional organisations are anticipated briefers. A regular briefings on the political, humanitarian presidential statement is likely to be pursued. and chemical weapons tracks in Syria, as well as 16 Yemen Viet Nam also plans to hold a ministerial-lev- the monthly meeting on developments in Yemen. 17 Cooperation Between el open debate on the protection of civilian infra- The quarterly open debate on the Middle the UN and Regional structure. Secretary-General Guterres may brief. East, including the Palestinian Question, is also Organisations Other briefers are expected to include ICRC scheduled for April. 19 Western Sahara President Peter Maurer and a representative of A briefing on Kosovo, focusing on recent 20 Colombia the International Peace Institute. A resolution is developments and the latest report of the Sec- 21 Non-Proliferation (1540 a potential outcome. retary-General, is the one European issue cur- Committee) The annual open debate on conflict-related rently anticipated on the Council’s programme 22 The Middle East, sexual violence is expected in April. Special Rep- this month. including the resentative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Regarding the Americas, there will be a meeting Palestinian Question Patten is expected to brief. Representatives of civil on Colombia, focusing on recent developments 23 Sudan/South Sudan society are also likely to participate. and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report The mandate of the 1540 Committee—which on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. The 24 Protection of Civilians: Protecting Critical aims to address concerns that non-state actors Council may also adopt a resolution expanding Infrastructure might use weapons of mass destruction for terror- the mandate of the mission to include monitoring ist purposes—will be renewed in April. compliance with the sentences handed down by The Council is also expected this month to the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP). renew the measures related to the illicit export Council members will also most likely closely of petroleum from Libya and the mandate of follow developments in Ethiopia and Myanmar. the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya

In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The Security Council

31 March 2021 and Mercenarism This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org.

For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please Mercenaries, the proverbial soldiers of fortune, years ago. During the Middle Ages, so-called subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” have been part of conflict for almost as long as condottieri (Italian for “contractors”) regularly series at securitycouncilreport.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. conflict has existed. Historical records suggest provided fee-based military services to city- that mercenaries were used by the Carthaginians states. Following well-publicised mercenary against Rome during the Punic Wars some 2,400 involvements in Africa in the late 1960s and 1970s,

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The Security Council and Mercenarism the post-Cold War period gave new impetus to operational combat support”, growing to an of firms for potential misconduct”. It also private military forces, including high-profile estimated deployment of 800 to 1,200. (Wag- “articulates the most pertinent international cases of mercenarism in Equatorial Guinea, ner Group has also reportedly been operating legal obligations with regard to PMSCs and Papua New Guinea and Sierra Leone by the in Syria and the Central African Republic; the debunks the prevailing misconception that late 1990s and early 2000s. government in Moscow denies any ties to the private contractors operate in a legal vacu- Recently, mercenaries have been heavily group.) Finally, the panel alleged that Tur- um”. It is currently supported by 57 states as involved in illicit, destabilising activities in a key’s SADAT International Defense Consul- well as the EU, NATO and the Organisation number of countries on the Security Coun- tancy has recruited and trained Syrian fight- for Security and Co-operation in Europe cil’s agenda. These actions have taken mul- ers. Turkey is the largest military backer of (OSCE). In September 2017, the Human tiple forms, including attempts to overthrow the Libyan Government of National Accord. Rights Council (HRC) established an open- governments, as was the case in Equatorial Mercenarism is big business, often entail- ended working group tasked with develop- Guinea in December 2017, just days before ing multinational personnel and highly ing an international regulatory framework starting its two-year Council term; taking sophisticated weaponry. While mercenary relating to the activities of PMSCs (resolu- control of natural resources, as has been seen groups are ostensibly private entities, they tion 36/11). It first met in May 2019. in Syria and the Central African Republic; can allow sponsoring states to advance Despite the persistently destabilising effect fighting on behalf of governments, as hap- national interests by outsourcing conflict. of mercenaries on international peace and pened in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020; and Further complicating the picture, private stability, addressing mercenarism has rarely helping to protect embattled national gov- entities occupy a spectrum from merce- been at the centre of global attention, and ernments, as apparently occurred this year in naries to so-called ‘legitimate’ actors who, overall, the United Nations’ attention to the the Central African Republic. With Council- States argue, are not mercenaries and don’t subject has been modest. In 1987, the UN mandated UN peace operations in some of participate in hostilities. Commission on Human Rights (the prede- these same countries, the activities of mer- International legal and normative foun- cessor of the HRC) created a Special Rappor- cenaries could complicate the UN’s work, dations against mercenary activities include teur on the use of mercenaries. In 2005, the potentially undermining or disrupting the the 1989 International Convention against commission ended this position, creating a mission’s ability to fulfil its mandate. the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Train- new Working Group on the use of mercenar- No country provides a better current ing of Mercenaries and the 1977 Convention ies that focuses on “mercenaries as a means example of the proliferation and globalisa- for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Afri- of violating human rights and impeding the tion of mercenary groups than Libya. Pri- ca, negotiated by the Organization of Afri- exercise of the rights of people to self-deter- vate entities, in support of different parties can Unity (the AU’s predecessor). Under the mination”. Composed of five independent to the conflict in the country, have been 1989 convention, which has 36 state parties experts, the working group is mandated to involved in deploying private military capa- and entered into force in 2001, the recruit- work towards strengthening the international bilities and violating, or attempting to violate, ment, use, financing and training of merce- legal framework for the prevention and sanc- the Council’s arms embargo in Libya. The naries are “offences of grave concern to all tion of the recruitment, use, financing, and final report of the Panel of Experts on Libya States”, and international cooperation among training of mercenaries, as well as studying released on 8 March noted that three United states is to be developed and enhanced “for mercenaries, mercenary-related actors and Arab Emirates-based companies, apparently the prevention, prosecution and punishment PMSCs, and identifying the sources and involving Australian, South African, UK and of such offences”. The 1977 convention causes of mercenary and mercenary-related US nationals, are alleged to have designed a states that the activities of mercenaries pose activities. In support of this work, it conducts plan, named Project Opus, to provide forc- a “grave threat…to the independence, sover- country visits and reports on these visits to es affiliated with General Khalifa Haftar’s eignty, territorial integrity and harmonious the HRC. Finally, it produces annual reports Libyan National Army with “armed assault development of Member States of the Orga- for the General Assembly on relevant themat- rotary-wing aviation, intelligence surveil- nization of African Unity”. ic issues. Its most recent report, published on lance and reconnaissance aircraft, maritime With a spectrum of actors engaged in 28 July 2020, looks at the evolving nature of interdiction, cyber, unmanned armed vehi- different facets of conflict situations, there mercenarism and aims to “shed light on the cles, and intelligence fusion and targeting have been efforts to address the conduct pervasive secrecy and opacity surrounding capabilities”. The plan also included a com- of private military and security companies mercenary and mercenary-related activities,” ponent to “kidnap or terminate individuals (PMSCs). In 2008, the Swiss Government which, it notes, is “particularly stark when regarded as high-value targets”. and the International Committee of the Red such actors are employed as an instrument The panel also reported allegations Cross (ICRC) finalised the Montreux Doc- to remotely influence armed conflicts, while that the Russian entity Wagner Group was ument, which addresses “substantive legal their patrons, including States, deny involve- deployed to Libya in 2018 to “provide tech- concerns, such as the status of PMSC per- ment and seek to avoid legal responsibilities”. nical support for the repair and maintenance sonnel under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, The Security Council has held two of armoured vehicles” for Haftar’s forces. individual accountability for misconduct sessions on the matter. The first was an By early 2019, the report continued, Wag- in different jurisdictions, and the authori- 18 March 2003 meeting on the prolifera- ner’s support for Haftar evolved to “provide ties’ duty to oversee and screen the actions tion of small arms and light weapons and

2 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The Security Council and Mercenarism mercenary activity in West Africa, which mercenaries and mercenary activities consti- a distinction between mercenaries—a term resulted in the adoption of resolution 1467, tute a threat to stability in Central Africa and clearly defined in international humanitarian the Council’s only dedicated resolution on condemned the “use, recruitment, financ- law—and properly regulated and responsible mercenaries. The resolution expressed con- ing, protection and training of mercenaries private security companies”, while the US cern about “links between mercenary activ- in order to impede the exercise of the right highlighted the need to “draw a sharp con- ities, illicit arms trafficking and the viola- of peoples to self-determination, destabi- trast between illegal destabilizing mercenary tion of arms embargoes that help to foster lize or overthrow governments or otherwise activities and the legal legitimate role that and prolong conflicts in West Africa”. In undermine the constitutional order, disrupt private military and security companies can addition, it requested subregional states to or compromise the territorial integrity, sover- play in many places”. South Africa, where “ensure that relevant measures adopted at eignty and the rule of law of States as well as one of the first post-Cold War private mili- the national, regional and international lev- to commit abuses of human rights”. tary firms, Executive Outcomes, originated, els to combat these problems are put into The December 2019 draft statement was argued that the international community effect”, including strengthening coopera- not adopted because of an issue highlighted should “address the perception around the tion to identify those who “provide support during the Council’s meeting that Febru- privatization and corporatization of security for mercenary activities”. ary, namely distinguishing between illegal, services, as such a role should be the sole The Council’s second consideration of destabilising mercenary activities and the responsibility of sovereign governments”. mercenarism came on 4 February 2019 with activities of what are considered legitimate With the rise in mercenarism in countries a high-level debate on “Mercenary activities private military and security companies. The on the Council’s agenda, including in coun- as a source of insecurity and destabilization in Working Group on mercenaries reiterated in tries with UN peace operations, there may Africa”. The meeting was organised under the July 2020 that there are legal definitions in be a need for a better understanding of the presidency of Equatorial Guinea, which has the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the 1949 issue. To reinvigorate the discussion started been the target over the past quarter-century Geneva Conventions and the 1989 Conven- by Equatorial Guinea in 2019 and examine of five attacks involving foreign mercenaries. tion, but they are “exceedingly narrow and situations on its agenda more closely, the As a follow-on, the Council appeared set to difficult to apply”. It added that the interna- Council could hold an Arria-formula meet- adopt a presidential statement in December tional legal framework on the issue “reflects ing with members of the working group on 2019 expressing concern about the impact the specific historical context in which it was the use of mercenaries and other experts to of mercenaries and their illicit activities in developed: namely a period characterized explore the impact of mercenaries in specific Central Africa. The text failed to pass silence by decolonization, post-colonial wars and countries and regional cases on the Coun- on 30 December, and within two days, the interventions in the internal affairs of new- cil’s agenda. It could also consider this issue penholder (Equatorial Guinea) was no lon- ly independent States, especially in Africa”. on a more regular basis, perhaps in a semi- ger on the Council; the presidential statement Speaking at the open debate on 4 February, annual or annual meeting. was not pursued. The draft recognised that the UK said that “it is important to draw

Status Update since our March Forecast

South Sudan unanimously adopted resolution 2567, renew- Ireland—supported by Estonia, France, On 3 March, the Security Council was ing the mandate of UNMISS until 15 March Norway, the UK, and the US—requested briefed via videoconference (VTC) by 2022. The resolution maintains the over- the meeting. Under-Secretary-General David Shearer, Special Representative of the all force levels at their mandated ceilings of for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock Secretary-General and head of UNMISS, 17,000 troops and 2,101 police personnel. briefed. He told members that some 4.5 on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report The four core pillars of the mandate were million people in Tigray were in need of (S/2021/172). He urged the Transitional retained, namely protecting civilians, creat- humanitarian assistance, with food security Government of National Unity to build ing the conditions conducive to the delivery a major concern. He further noted that on gains made during its first year in office of humanitarian assistance, supporting the access to water, sanitation, and health and accelerate implementation of the 2018 peace process, and monitoring and investi- services were disrupted. Lowcock called for Revitalized Peace Agreement or risk a return gating human rights. scaled-up humanitarian assistance and for an to widespread violence (S/2021/219). Jackline independent needs assessment. Nasiwa, the Founder and National Director Ethiopia (Tigray) of the Centre for Inclusive Governance, Peace On 4 March, Security Council members Sudan and Justice, also briefed the Council. The discussed the humanitarian situation in On 9 March, the Security Council received a briefing was followed by VTC consultations. the Tigray region of Ethiopia during a VTC briefing, followed by VTC consultations, On 12 March, the Security Council closed VTC under “any other business”. on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our March Forecast

Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener business” on 31 March. Press elements were (S/2021/246). Special Representative for in a closed videoconference (VTC). At the anticipated. Sudan and head of UNITAMS Volker time of writing, press elements were expected Perthes briefed on the Secretary-General’s to be issued following the meeting. Afghanistan 90-day report on UNITAMS (S/2021/199), On 12 March, Council members issued a while Under-Secretary-General for Conflict and Food Security press statement (SC/14464) in which they Operational Support Atul Khare briefed On 11 March, Security Council members strongly condemned the targeted attacks on the drawdown of the AU/UN Hybrid held an open debate via VTC on conflict against civilians in Afghanistan. Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Kholood and food security (S/2021/250). This was On 23 March, the Security Council held Khair, Managing Partner of Insight Strategy the signature event of the US Council its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan via VTC Partners, also briefed. presidency, and a concept note was prepared (S/2021/291). Deborah Lyons, the Special On 25 March, the chair of the 1591 Sudan for the meeting (S/2021/217). Secretary- Representative of the Secretary-General Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sven General António Guterres, Executive for Afghanistan and head of the UN Assis- Jürgenson (Estonia), provided the quarterly Director of the World Food Programme tance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), briefing on the Committee’s work via VTC. David Beasley, and Executive Director of briefed on the Secretary-General’s 12 Oxfam International Gabriela Bucher briefed. March UNAMA report (S/2021/252). Sha- OSCE In connection with the event, members harzad Akbar, the chairperson of the Afghan On 10 March, the Council was briefed via discussed having a presidential statement, Independent Human Rights Commission VTC by Ann Linde, Minister for Foreign but they were unable to gain consensus on (AIHRC), also briefed the Council. Affairs of Sweden, and current Chairperson- the text. A key impediment to agreement in-Office for the Organization for Security was over establishing a reporting cycle by Ukraine and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) the Secretary-General on the issue; Russia in On 12 March, there was a high-level VTC (S/2021/256). During the briefing, Linde particular objected to such a reporting cycle. Arria-formula meeting on Crimea. The emphasised the crucial need for the UN and meeting was co-organised by Council the OSCE to cooperate closely in Europe, Central African Republic members Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, noting that one of her main priorities is to “seek On 12 March, with a vote of 14 in favour and the UK, and the US. It was also co-sponsored continued engagement at the highest levels one abstention, the Council adopted by Australia, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, towards sustainable solutions to the crises and resolution 2566, which raised the troop Czech Republic, Georgia, Germany, Greece, conflicts in the [European] region, in line with ceiling of the UN Multidimensional Honduras, Lithuania, the Netherlands, international law and with full respect for the Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, and Ukraine. OSCE principles and commitments”. Central African Republic (MINUSCA) by Estonia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Eva- 2,750 and the police component by 940. Maria Liimets, chaired the meeting. Ilze Myanmar The decision to provide the mission with Brands Kehris, Assistant Secretary-General On 5 March, Council members were briefed the troop and police reinforcements comes for Human Rights and Head of the Office on developments in Myanmar by Special during a period of heightened instability in of the High Commissioner for Human Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener in a the CAR, which has seen a rash of violence Rights (OHCHR) in New York, delivered the closed VTC. The Special Envoy updated led by a newly-formed coalition of armed keynote speech. Phillip Karber, President of Council members on the recent lethal attacks groups, the Coalition of Patriots for Change the Potomac Foundation, and Maria Tomak, by the military on protestors. She called on (CPC), which has challenged the authority of Coordinator of the Media Initiative for the Council to take urgent action and said that the current government. Human Rights, provided briefings. Dmytro Council unity and robust action were crucial Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, to stopping the violence. Somalia participated in the meeting. On 10 March, the Council adopted a On 12 March, the Security Council On 17 March, Russia hosted an Arria- presidential statement on Myanmar (S/ unanimously adopted resolution 2568, formula meeting via VTC on the situation PRST/2021/5). The presidential statement reauthorising the presence of the AU Mission in Crimea. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed the Council’s deep concern at the in Somalia (AMISOM) for ten months until (Russia) provided introductory and closing developments since the military’s declaration 31 December. While authorising AMISOM’s remarks at the meeting. Briefings were pro- of a state of emergency on 1 February and core mandated tasks and troop ceiling, the vided by: Chingiz Yaqubov, the Chancellor expressed strong support for the democratic resolution attached a timeline to milestones of the Crimean Engineering and Pedagogic process. It also strongly condemned the vio- that need to be met before the end of the University (CEPU); CEPU students; Anas- lence against peaceful protestors— including year in order to inform discussion on the tasia Gridchina, the Head of the Ukrainian against women, youth and children—and called future of the mission. Community of Crimea; Roman Chegrinets, for the release of those arbitrarily detained. At the time of writing, Council members the Head of the Crimean regional national- On 31 March, Council members were were expected to discuss the delays in the cultural autonomy, “Belarusians of Crimea”; briefed on developments in Myanmar by electoral process in Somalia under “any other Ludmila Radeva, Vice-Chair of the regional

4 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Status Update since our March Forecast

Bulgarian national-cultural autonomy of the Yazidi community; and Karim Asad States, and Viet Nam. In addition, Belgium, Crimea, “Paisius of Helindar”; and Vera Ahmad Khan, Special Adviser and Head Ecuador, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands Pautova, the Head of the Educational Cen- of the UN Investigative Team to Promote and Portugal co-sponsored the meeting. ter for Children and Youth Creativity. Accord- Accountability for Crimes Committed Ambassador Martin Kimani of Kenya chaired ing to the concept note prepared by Russia, by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) (and Chief the meeting. The briefers were: Under- the meeting’s objective was to provide com- Prosecutor-designate of the International Secretary-General for Peace Operations prehensive information on the situation in Criminal Court). Jean-Pierre Lacroix; Lieutenant General Crimea from current residents of the region. Dennis Gyllensporre, the Force Commander Haiti of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Lebanon On 24 March, the Security Council adopted Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA); On 18 March, Council members heard a a presidential statement on Haiti (S/ Brigadier General Charles L Mwazighe of briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s PRST/2021/7). It was the first presidential the International Peace Support Training report (S/2021/240) on the implementation statement on Haiti since October 2017. Centre (IPSTC); and Ilene Cohn, the Deputy of resolution 1701 in a closed VTC meeting. The statement called for legislative and Director and Officer-in-Charge of the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations presidential elections to be held, for increased Mine Action Service (UNMAS). Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Deputy Special accountability for perpetrators of human rights Coordinator for Lebanon Najat Rochdi briefed. violations and abuses, and for the Haitian DPRK government to end impunity in this regard. On 26 March, the Council adopted resolution Counter-Terrorism The statement also emphasised the need for 2569, which extended until 30 April 2022 the On 18 March, the 1373 Counter-Terrorism the government to address the deteriorating mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the Committee met in a closed VTC to hear security situation and noted with concern the 1718 Sanctions Committee. the monthly update from its Executive humanitarian situation in the country. On 30 March, Council members dis- Directorate. On 30 March, Council cussed recent missile tests by the DPRK members agreed on a press statement UN Disengagement Observer Force under “any other business”. Estonia, Ire- condemning in the strongest terms the (Golan Heights) land, Norway, the UK, and France initiated 28 March suicide attack against Makassar On 25 March, Council members were the meeting. Church in Makassar, Indonesia. briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary- General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- 1540 Committee (Non-proliferation) Freedom of Religion and Belief Pierre Lacroix on the Secretary-General’s On 30 March, Ambassador Juan Ramón On 19 March, a virtual Arria-formula latest 90-day UNDOF report and the most de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico) briefed the meeting was held on “Religion, Belief and recent developments. Council on the work of the Committee, which Conflict: the protection of members of deals with the non-proliferation of weapons of religious and belief groups in conflict and The Threat of Improvised Explosive mass destruction. religious actors in conflict resolution”. Lord Devices against Peace Operations Ahmed, UK Minister of State at the Foreign, On 26 March, an Arria-formula meeting Children and Armed Conflict Commonwealth and Development Office, was held on: “Protecting the Peacekeeper: On 31 March, the Working Group on chaired the meeting. The briefers were: Suppressing the Deployment of Improvised Children and Armed Conflict held a closed Justin Welby, Archbishop of Canterbury Explosive Devices against Peace Operations”. VTC meeting to discuss the South Sudan and a member of the Secretary-General’s The meeting was co-hosted by Kenya, China, conclusions and heard a presentation from High-level Advisory Board on Mediation; Estonia, France, Ireland, Mexico, Niger, UNICEF on the Global Horizontal Note. Azza Karam, Secretary General of Religions Norway, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, for Peace; Ekhlas Bajoo, a member of Tunisia, the United Kingdom, the United

Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Key Recent Developments In April, the Security Council is scheduled Pramila Patten, is expected to brief. Repre- Conflict-related sexual violence, as defined to hold its annual open debate on con- sentatives of civil society are also likely to par- in the Secretary-General’s annual reports, flict-related sexual violence. The Special ticipate. No formal outcome is anticipated. “refers to rape, sexual slavery, forced

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2564 (25 February 2021) renewed the Yemen sanctions regime for a year; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). S/RES/1888 (30 September 2009) established the position of Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict. S/RES/1820 (19 June 2008) addressed sexual violence in conflict and post-conflict situations. S/RES/1325 (31 October 2000) was the Council’s first resolution on women, peace and security. Security Council Letters S/2021/264 (17 March 2021) was the summary of the IEG’s 2 March meeting on Yemen. S/2021/166 (18 February 2021) was the summary of the IEG’s 2 February meeting on South Sudan. S/2020/727 (21 July 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council containing the briefings provided and statements given by states during the 17 July open videoconference on conflict-related sexual violence.Other S/2020/1054 (30 October 2020) was a draft resolution initiated by Russia, which failed to garner the needed number of votes to pass.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Women, Peace and Security prostitution, forced pregnancy, forced abor- the Security Council”. Last year’s annual was co-hosted by 12 Council members tion, enforced sterilization, forced mar- report named parties in CAR (six non- (Ireland, Mexico, Estonia, France, Kenya, riage and any other form of sexual violence state actors), the DRC (21 non-state actors Niger, Norway, Saint Vincent and the Gren- of comparable gravity perpetrated against and two state actors), Iraq (one non-state adines, Tunisia, the UK, the US, and Viet women, men, girls or boys that is directly actor), Mali (five non-state actors), Myan- Nam). Under-Secretary-General for Politi- or indirectly linked to a conflict”. The posi- mar (one state actor), Somalia (one non- cal and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary tion of Special Representative on Sexual Vio- state actor and three state actors), South DiCarlo; Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. lence in Conflict was established in resolu- Sudan (four non-state actors and two state Pedersen; Bronagh Hinds, an advocate for tion 1888 of 30 September 2009. actors), Sudan (two non-state actors and women’s rights from Northern Ireland; and As in previous years, the Secretary-Gen- two state actors), and Syria (five non-state Rasha Jarhum, a peacebuilder from Yemen, eral’s annual report is expected to focus on actors and two state actors) as well as Boko briefed. In her statement, Jarhum said that countries where verifiable information was Haram under “other parties of concern on “sexual violence is used against women and obtained. Last year’s annual report provid- the agenda of the Security Council”. States girls by all parties to the conflict” in Yemen. ed analysis and recommendations on sexual listed in the annex are prohibited from con- She emphasised, however, that it was par- violence in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herze- tributing to UN peace operations. If an ticularly the Houthis who have “arbitrarily govina, Burundi, the Central African Repub- actor “has made formal commitments to detained, tortured and repeatedly raped lic (CAR), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, the adopt measures to address conflict-related women and girls who oppose them”. She Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), sexual violence”, it is indicated in the annex. therefore thanked the Council for its 25 Iraq, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, Nepal, Nige- To be removed from the annex, an actor February listing of Zabin. ria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan has to cease violations and implement its Since Ireland and Mexico took over as co- (Darfur), Syria, and Yemen. formal commitments. Only one party, the chairs of the Informal Experts Group (IEG) The humanitarian situation in the Tigray Forces Républicaines de Côte d’Ivoire, has on women, peace and security on 1 January, region of northern Ethiopia continues to been delisted so far. the IEG has met on South Sudan on 3 Febru- raise concerns, in the light of reports of “rape In resolution 1820 of 19 June 2008, the ary and Yemen on 2 March. Both times, the and other horrific forms of sexual violence”, Council expressed its intention to consider Office of the Special Representative on Sex- according to a 22 March statement by UN the use of targeted sanctions against perpe- ual Violence in Conflict participated. entities (including the heads of the Interna- trators of conflict-related sexual violence. tional Organization for Migration, OCHA, Of the 14 Council sanctions regimes, seven Key Issues and Options the UN Development Programme, UN Pop- include explicit designation criteria for these An ongoing issue for the Council is how to ulation Fund, UNHCR, UNICEF, and the crimes: CAR, DRC, Libya, Mali, Somalia, consolidate progress in the implementation World Health Organization) and non-govern- South Sudan, and Yemen. In total, 14 indi- of successive resolutions on conflict-related mental organisations. The statement calls for viduals (under the CAR, DRC, Mali, South sexual violence. One option is to increase the an “independent investigation into conflict- Sudan, and Yemen sanctions regimes) and direct interactions between Council mem- related sexual violence in Tigray”, involving four entities (under the CAR and DRC bers and the Special Representative on Sex- the OHCHR. In a 21 January statement, Pat- sanctions regimes) have been listed under ual Violence in Conflict. That could include ten expressed great concern about “serious these criteria so far. briefings to the Council in open or closed allegations of sexual violence” in the region. On 25 February, the Council adopted res- formats and to its subsidiary bodies, includ- She shared “disturbing reports” of individu- olution 2564, renewing the Yemen financial ing sanctions committees. als who were forced to rape their family mem- and travel ban sanctions and the mandate of The Council could call upon state and bers and women who were forced to have the Panel of Experts assisting the 2140 Yemen non-state actors to make “formal commit- sex with military elements in exchange for Sanctions Committee. With the resolution, ments to adopt measures to address con- basic commodities. She called on the parties the Council added Houthi official Sultan flict-related sexual violence”, as a first step to the hostilities to respect their obligations Saleh Aida Aida Zabin to the sanctions list towards delisting from the annex of the annu- under international human rights law and for “[playing] a prominent role in a policy al report, and request the Secretary-General international humanitarian law, including of intimidation and use of systematic arrest, to inform the Council on compliance with a zero-tolerance policy for crimes of sexual detention, torture, sexual violence and rape these commitments in his reporting. violence. According to media reports, rape is against politically active women”, as reported Where a designation criterion for sexual being used as a weapon of war in Tigray by by the Panel of Experts. This marked the first violence exists, the Council could strength- Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers. time that the Council has listed an individual en efforts to sanction perpetrators. In As has been the case since 2012, the in the Middle East region for such crimes. renewing the mandates of panels of experts annual report is also expected to contain an On 8 March, Council members convened assisting sanctions committees, the Council annex listing “parties credibly suspected of virtually for an Arria-formula meeting titled could make sure that, where relevant, the committing or being responsible for patterns “Call to Lead by Example: Ensuring the Full, experts have gender expertise. of rape or other forms of sexual violence in Equal and Meaningful Participation of Wom- When negotiating mandate renewals of situations of armed conflict on the agenda of en in UN-led Peace Processes”. The meeting peace operations, Council members could

6 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Women, Peace and Security ensure that, where pertinent, language sup- the 20th anniversary of the adoption of the and the US abstained). The perception by porting the deployment of gender advisers Council’s first resolution on women, peace the abstaining members was that the text and women’s protection advisers is included. and security, resolution 1325 of 31 Octo- was not balanced between different aspects ber 2000. The negotiations were conten- of the agenda, placing more emphasis on the Council Dynamics tious, and the resolution failed to garner socioeconomic aspects than the rights-based Formal outcomes on women, peace and nine affirmative votes (China, Indonesia, aspects, including language on human rights. security continue to be difficult to negoti- Russia, South Africa, and Viet Nam voted The US is the penholder on conflict- ate. Following last year’s annual open debate in favour; Belgium, Dominican Republic, related sexual violence. Ireland and Mexi- on women, peace and security, Russia put to Estonia, France, Germany, Niger, St. Vin- co are the co-chairs of the IEG on women, the vote a draft resolution commemorating cent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, the UK, peace and security.

Mali

Expected Council Action between the interim authorities and political opened fire with mortars and automatic In April, the Council will hold its quarterly groups and civil society. weapons before peacekeepers repelled the briefing on Mali, followed by consultations. On 11 February, the Monitoring Com- attack. One peacekeeper from Togo was Under-Secretary-General for Peace Opera- mittee of the 2015 Peace and Reconciliation killed and 27 were injured. tions Jean-Pierre Lacroix is expected to brief. Agreement between the Malian government On 15 March, the UN announced the The mandate of the UN Multidimensional and signatory armed groups met in Kidal, its appointment of El-Ghassim Wane of Mau- Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali first meeting held outside of Bamako since ritania as the Secretary-General’s Special (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June 2021. the agreement was signed in 2015. Algerian Representative and head of MINUSMA. Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum chaired Wane succeeds Mahamat Saleh Annadif, Key Recent Developments the meeting, which brought together six Mali- who headed the mission for the last five years. Since the August 2020 coup d’état, Mali’s an ministers, the leadership of the signatory (On 26 March, the UN announced Annadif’s transitional institutions—which are to gov- armed groups and international mediators. appointment as the head of the UN Office for ern for 18 months before elections are held In a press release, the Secretary-General wel- West Africa and the Sahel.) in March 2022 to restore a democratically comed this “new momentum and the grow- In mid-March, a Malian court ended the elected government—have become fully ing trust among the signatory parties” and trial of Amadou Sanogo, leader of a 2012 operational. On 10 February, the interim par- “encourage[d] the signatory parties to build coup d’état against President Amadou Tou- liament known as the National Transitional upon this positive dynamic by translating the mani Touré, who was accused of involvement Council began its first session, and on 22 agreed commitments into actions”. in killing 21 paratroopers during a failed February, it approved the government action Terrorist attacks continue in central Mali. counter-coup. It also ended proceedings plan proposed by transitional prime minister On 15 March, at least 33 Malian soldiers against 15 other defendants. In making the Moctar Ouane. The action plan sets out six were killed and 14 wounded in an attack on decision, the court cited a 2019 reconciliation priority areas, including institutional reforms, their convoy near the town of Tessit, located law offering amnesty or pardon for specific moving forward with elections and openness in the Gao region; the Islamic State in the crimes committed during the 2012 crisis. to dialogue with extremist groups. Greater Sahara claimed responsibility. It was Regionally, a summit of the Group of The Monitoring and Support Group for the deadliest attack against Malian forces Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel), to which Mali the Transition in Mali, co-chaired by the since the August 2020 coup. belongs, was held from 15 to 16 February in UN, the AU and the Economic Community Six MINUSMA peacekeepers have N’Djamena, Chad. There has been specula- of West African States (ECOWAS), held its been killed in attacks since January. Four tion that France may start withdrawing troops second meeting on 8 March in Lomé, Togo. peacekeepers from Côte d’Ivoire were killed from Operation Barkhane, its 5,100-strong A communiqué issued following the meeting and five injured in a 13 January attack in counter-terrorism force in the Sahel. How- “took note with satisfaction of the progress” the Timbuktu region. Two days later, one ever, French President Emmanuel Macron, made since the support group’s inaugural Egyptian peacekeeper was killed and anoth- participating virtually, announced at the sum- meeting in November 2020 and recalled er seriously injured near Tessalit in Kidal mit that France would not be downsizing, the need for dialogue between Malian stake- region. On 10 February, assailants report- called for a “civilian surge” to complement holders. The military has maintained a strong edly drove an explosives-laden vehicle into military efforts and continued to oppose dia- role in the transition, and tensions continue a MINUSMA base near Douentza, then logue with jihadist leaders.

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2541 (31 August 2020) renewed the Mali sanctions regime for one year. S/RES/2531 (29 June 2020) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA until 30 June 2021. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST2020/10 (15 October 2020) welcomed the new transitional arrangements in Mali following the 18 August coup d’état. Sanctions Committee Document S/2021/151 (17 February 2021) was the midterm report of the Mali Panel of Experts. Security Council Press Statements SC/14436 (12 February 2021) condemned the 10 February attack against MINUSMA near Douentza, in which one peacekeeper from Togo was killed and 27 peacekeepers injured. SC/14414 (18 January 2021) condemned the attack on 15 January against MINUSMA near Tessalit in Kidal region, in which one peacekeeper from Egypt was killed and another was seri- ously injured. SC/14411 (14 January 2021) condemned the attack perpetrated on 13 January 2021 against MINUSMA to the north of the town of Bambara-Maoudé, in Timbuktu region, in which four peacekeepers were killed and five others injured.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Mali

Mali’s neighbours continue to face vio- security developments concerning the Agree- elections. Another issue is MINUSMA’s lence from terrorist groups that have also pro- ment on Peace and Reconciliation in Mali and support for the G5 Sahel Joint Force (FC- voked inter-communal conflict. Niger expe- its signatory parties between September 2020 G5S), which comprises operational assis- and January 2021 and provides an update on the rienced several lethal attacks near its border implementation of the sanctions regime. tance, such as the provision of rations and with Mali during March: assailants killed at fuel, and some logistical support. The Secre- least 58 civilians on 15 March in Banibangou Key Issues and Options tariat’s assessment of this support is expect- in the Tillabéri region and attacked a series Mali’s political transition is a key issue. In ed to be included in the Secretary-General’s of villages on 21 March in the Tahou region, this regard, having the Council emphasise the May report on the FC-G5S. leaving at least 137 people dead. importance of stakeholders’ upholding their An option for the Council, leading up to obligations in the transition charter and mak- MINUSMA’s mandate renewal in June, is Human Rights-Related Developments ing progress in envisioned reforms, especially to conduct a “virtual” mission to Mali to During its 46th session, the Human Rights related to the electoral process, may be useful. engage interlocutors in the country. The Council held an interactive dialogue on Recurring issues that continue to require Council last visited Mali in March 2019 and 22 March with the independent expert on Mali, Alioune Tine, and considered his report (A/ the Council’s attention include: progress in had to cancel plans for an April 2020 mission HRC/46/68). Tine said the situation “remained implementing the 2015 peace agreement, the due to the COVID-19 pandemic. concerning in the north and centre of Mali, stabilisation of central Mali and protection Sanctions, which were established in 2017 where civilians continued to be attacked by vio- of civilians, and the overall security situation. to pressure the peace agreement’s signa- lent extremist groups as well as armed commu- When it renewed MINUSMA’s mandate last tory parties to speed up its implementation, nity self-defence groups, despite the presence of international and national security forces”. He June through resolution 2531, the Council remain a Council tool. Members could con- recommended that MINUSMA respond proac- updated the benchmarks for assessing prog- sider how the sanctions regime might be used tively to threats against civilians. ress on the implementation of the peace in support of the political transition. On 30 March, MINUSMA’s Human Rights Divi- agreement (security sector reform, consti- sion released a report concluding that a 3 January tutional and decentralisation reforms, the Council Dynamics airstrike by Operation Barkhane killed at least 19 civilians at a wedding party in the town of Bounti development of the north, and the participa- Following last year’s coup d’état, the Council in central Mali. The French military had previously tion of women). The mandate renewal also has been united in supporting the mediation asserted that the strike had killed around 30 created two benchmarks for the situation in efforts of ECOWAS and backing any agree- jihadists. According to the report, five armed indi- Mali’s centre: on restoring the Malian state ment it concluded to restore a civilian gov- viduals belonging to terrorist group Katiba Serma presence and on fighting impunity. ernment. When Malian stakeholders agreed attended the wedding, three of whom were killed. Next month, Council members will also to the ECOWAS-brokered political transi- In a statement, France’s ministry of defense said that it “reaffirms strongly” that the airstrike target- be considering a Secretary-General’s let- tion in October 2020, the Council welcomed ed an “armed terrorist group” and indicated that it ter on a long-term road map that sets out the new arrangements in a presidential state- had “numerous reservations about the methodol- the conditions for a possible exit strategy ment and set out its expectations that the new ogy used” in the report. requested in resolution 2531. Received by authorities would complete the transition in members on 26 March, the letter focuses on 18 months while continuing to implement the Sanctions-Related Developments the objectives to achieve by the end of the 2015 peace agreement and carry out efforts On 9 February, the 2374 Mali Sanctions Com- political transition, and notes that it is “pre- to stabilise central Mali and combat terrorism. mittee met via videoconference to consider the mature” to envisage any drawdown or trans- France is the penholder on Mali. Ambassa- midterm report of the Mali Panel of Experts. A committee press release noted that the mid- fer of MINUSMA’s security responsibilities dor Juan Ramón de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexi- term report highlights the main political and to national forces immediately following the co) chairs the 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee.

Syria

Expected Council Action thousands of deaths from the conflict, the war focussed on the need for a peaceful reso- In April, the Security Council expects to has forced 13 million Syrians, more than 60 lution of the decade-long conflict. Despite hold its monthly meetings on the political per cent of the country’s population, to flee five rounds of meetings of the Constitu- and humanitarian situations and the use of their homes and left 13.4 million people in tion Committee, which is responsible for chemical weapons in Syria. need of humanitarian aid, which is estimated drafting a new constitution for Syria in line to be more than three times the number of with resolution 2254, there has been no Key Recent Developments people in need at the end of 2012. tangible progress in producing a political March saw the commemoration of a decade During his Council briefing on 15 March, solution. Resolution 2254, adopted unan- of conflict in Syria. In addition to hundreds of Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen imously in 2015, expressed support for a

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2533 (11 July 2020) renewed the authorisation for cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria through one border crossing (Bab al-Hawa) for 12 months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2021/160 (18 February 2021) was the regular 60-day report on the implementation of humanitarian resolutions by all parties to the conflict in Syria.

8 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Syria

UN-facilitated, Syrian-led political process. remains worrying despite an overall decrease Under-Secretary-General and High Rep- It was hoped that the last round of meet- in violence. On 21 March, a Syrian military resentative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi ings, held from 25 to 29 January, would artillery attack on Al Atareb Surgical Hospi- Nakamitsu said that “at this stage, the dec- see the beginning of the drafting phase of a tal in Aleppo governorate killed six patients laration submitted by [Syria] cannot be con- new constitution, but the government and and injured 16 civilians, including five medi- sidered accurate and complete”, noting that opposition members taking part in the talks cal staff. Several aerial attacks, some alleg- 19 issues related to Syria’s chemical weap- failed to produce any concrete results. edly by Russian military jets, took place near ons declarations made to the Organisation At his 15 March Council briefing, Ped- the Bab al-Hawa border crossing on the for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons ersen noted that it was essential to use the Syrian-Turkish border and within a few hun- (OPCW) remain unresolved. While calling opportunity afforded by the relative calm in dred meters of where a number of humani- on the Syrian government to cooperate fully the conflict to put a fresh focus on the politi- tarian organisations have offices, striking with the OPCW, she also highlighted that cal process, noting that there was “great dan- a gas facility and subsequently setting fire the OPCW Declaration Assessment Team ger that the fragile calm could unravel” and to trucks deployed to deliver humanitarian had been deployed to Syria to hold consul- derail any progress. He also emphasised the assistance. The UN deputy regional humani- tations with the government. need for the international community to tarian coordinator for Syria told the media engage in “sustained and robust diplomatic that approximately one million people live Human Rights-Related Developments dialogue”, telling the Council that it was time in refugee camps in the area and “are highly During the 46th session of the Human Rights to establish a “new international format” that vulnerable when airstrikes and shelling hap- Council, High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said on 11 March that “with Syr- would bring together different parties, includ- pen”. Meanwhile, on 16 March, the official ia about to enter its 11th year of violence and con- ing the Council’s five permanent members, Syrian news agency reported that Israel had flict, the pursuit of truth, justice and reparations Iran, Turkey, Arab states, and the European launched a series of missile strikes on Syria. for victims must not only continue but be stepped Union, to peacefully resolve the conflict. To It was unclear, however, whether the missiles up”. The recent conviction of a former Syrian intel- this end, he maintained that it was “now nec- hit their intended targets, two ammunition ligence officer by a German trial court for aiding and abetting crimes against humanity was an essary for all these actors to seriously sit down depots located outside Damascus that osten- important step forward on the path to justice, the and develop a Syrian policy based on the sibly belong to Iranian-backed militias. Syrian High Commissioner said. She stressed the need understanding that none of them can dictate state television claimed that the missiles were to address the issue of missing and disappeared the outcome of the Syrian conflict”. shot down by Syrian air defences. people and joined the call for the creation of an The call for renewed international efforts Syria’s humanitarian and economic con- independent mechanism with an international mandate to clarify the fate and whereabouts of came as the foreign ministers of Russia, Qatar ditions also continue to worsen. Accord- missing people, identify human remains, and pro- and Turkey met in Doha on 11 March to dis- ing to a 19 March World Food Programme vide support to their families. cuss Syria. After the meeting, Turkey’s For- report, food security in Syria “remain[s] eign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced at critical levels”, with food prices having Key Issues and Options that the three countries had “launched a new reached a record high in January. On 16 “trilateral consultation process” to discuss March, UNICEF’s Middle East regional Reinvigorating the stalled political process ways of contributing to a lasting political director indicated that over six million Syr- will be a key focus in April. Council mem- solution in Syria. Russian Foreign Minister ian children need assistance and that one- bers were unable to agree on a press state- Sergei Lavrov noted that the group did not third of Syrian schools were now unusable ment after Pedersen’s briefing on 15 March. aim to replace the Astana group consisting due to damage, serving as shelters for dis- However, the Special Envoy’s emphasis on of Russia, Turkey and Iran. In a joint state- placed families, or being used for military the need for the international community to ment, Russia, Qatar and Turkey expressed purposes. COVID-19 continues to affect come together in a “sustained and robust” their commitment to advancing a political the humanitarian situation as Syria’s case- manner could serve as the catalyst for some process in accordance with resolution 2254. load grows, with approximately 41,000 Council members to seek another opportu- On the humanitarian situation, they called on cases reported throughout the country on nity through a presidential statement or, at the “international community, the UN and 16 March. On 23 March, WHO announced minimum, a press statement to call on the its humanitarian agencies to enhance their that it will begin its COVID-19 vaccination parties in the conflict to take a serious and efforts”. On 9 March, Josep Borrell, the EU’s campaign in Syria in April or early May and meaningful approach to the political process High Representative for Foreign Affairs, said aims to inoculate approximately 20 percent in line with resolution 2254 and engage with the EU would continue to withhold recon- of Syria’s population this year. However, the the Constitutional Committee. struction funds until there had been a politi- equitable delivery of the vaccine is likely to Addressing the deteriorating humanitar- cal transition in line with resolution 2254, be complicated, given humanitarian access ian situation will also be a major focus for the underscoring the EU’s long-standing view challenges into areas outside government Council. It may use the announcement of the that “there will be no end to sanctions, no control in Syria’s north-east and north-west. WHO vaccination rollout as the impetus for normalizations, no support for reconstruc- Finally, on 4 March, the Coun- exploring ways to ensure that access issues do tion until a political transition is underway”. cil held its regular monthly meeting on not present an obstacle to the equitable dis- Meanwhile, Syria’s security situation the use of chemical weapons in Syria. tribution of the vaccines in government- and

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Syria opposition-held areas. consensus on how to advance the political anticipating further discord as discussions Council Dynamics process. The monthly meeting on chemi- about the renewal of cross-border humani- Stark differences between Council mem- cal weapons regularly highlights the Coun- tarian access gather pace in the coming weeks, bers on Syria’s political, humanitarian and cil’s deep divisions on the issue, while the due to the 11 July expiration of resolution chemical weapons files persist. Recent calls cleavages that exist between Council mem- 2533, authorising cross-border humanitarian for Council members to work together to bers on the humanitarian file are likely to be deliveries. influence Syrian actors to peacefully resolve exacerbated as a vaccination rollout begins the conflict seem to have done little to build this spring in Syria. Members are also

Great Lakes Region

Expected Council Action sustained cooperation on cross-border remaining challenges. Among the challenges Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region security issues; good governance, rule of noted were the illegal exploitation of natu- Huang Xia is expected to provide his bian- law and human rights; and women/youth ral resources, strained relationships between nual briefing to the Council in April on the and peace and security. certain countries in the region, a high num- implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security • The second pillar focusses on sustainable ber of refugees and displaced persons, and and Cooperation Framework (PSC Frame- development and shared prosperity, with ongoing human rights violations. work) for the Democratic Republic of the the priority areas of equitable and inclu- The Technical Support Committee on the Congo (DRC) and on other recent develop- sive socio-economic development; regional implementation of the PSC Framework met ments in the region. Xia is also likely to brief economic cooperation, trade and invest- virtually on 18 March, expressing its full sup- on the implementation of the UN Strategy ment; as well as sustainable and transpar- port for the new strategy. The committee is for Peace Consolidation, Conflict Prevention ent management of natural resources. comprised of senior government representa- and Conflict Resolution in the Great Lakes • The third pillar addresses resilience to tives of the signatory countries to the PSC region. The strategy was presented to the long-standing and emerging challeng- Framework agreement (Angola, the DRC, Council in December 2020, and the biannual es and prioritises prevention of violent Burundi, CAR, Congo, Rwanda, South Afri- report of the Secretary-General on the PSC extremism; durable solutions to protract- ca, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Framework is due by 29 March. ed forced displacement; as well as pre- Uganda and Zambia) and its Guarantors (the paredness and resilience to internal and UN, the AU, the International Conference on Key Recent Developments external shocks. the Great Lakes Region, and the Southern In his 29 September 2020 report on the In outlining the strategy, the Secretary- African Development Community). implementation of the PSC framework, the General indicates that it is intended to capi- A number of notable political, security and Secretary-General informed the Council of talise on positive developments in the region humanitarian developments have occurred ongoing efforts by his Special Envoy to devel- over the past years, including the peace in the Great Lakes region in recent months, op a strategy for peace consolidation, con- agreements reached in the Central African including in cases on the Council’s agenda. flict prevention and conflict resolution in the Republic (CAR) in 2019, in South Sudan In the DRC, the ruling coalition close to for- Great Lakes region. On 4 December 2020, in 2018 and in Sudan in 2020, as well as mer President Joseph Kabila, the Cap pour le the Secretary-General submitted the final- increased regional cooperation on political changement (CACH)-Front Commun pour ised strategy to the Security Council. Numer- or economic levels. le Congo (FCC), collapsed in December ous stakeholders were consulted on the text, The guarantors of the PSC Framework 2020. A new government has yet to be formed. including PSC Framework signatory coun- (the UN, the AU, the International Confer- On 27 January, several hundred mem- tries, regional organisations, civil society rep- ence on the Great Lakes Region, and the bers of parliament left the FCC to join two resentatives, international partners, various Southern African Development Communi- opposition parties supporting Union sacrée UN entities and the African Union. ty) met virtually on 3 March to commemo- de la nation (USN), a newly formed coali- The strategy suggests a whole-of-system rate the framework’s eighth anniversary. (It tion around President Félix Tshisekedi. Sev- approach to the Great Lakes region, detail- was agreed on 24 February 2013). In a state- eral ministers resigned, as did Prime Minister ing ten priorities outlined under three pillars: ment issued after the meeting, the guaran- Sylvestre Ilunga Ilukamba, Senate President • The first pillar covers peace, security and tors summarised the achievements made Alexis Thambwe Mwamba; and Assem- justice. Priorities under this pillar are dia- under the PSC Framework, echoed the prog- bly Speaker Jeanine Mabunda. These posi- logue and inclusive political processes; ress noted in the strategy, and highlighted tions were subsequently filled, including the

KEY DOCUMENTS ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2566 (12 March 2021) raised the MINUSCA troop ceiling. S/RES/2556 (18 December 2020) extended the mandate of MONUSCO until 20 December 2021. S/RES/2552 (12 November 2020) extended the mandate of MINUSCA for one year until 15 November 2021. S/RES/2389 (8 December 2017) was the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the region. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2021/146 (16 February 2021) was the latest Secretary-General report on the situation in CAR. S/2020/951 (29 September 2020) was the latest Secretary-General report on the implementation of the PSC Framework. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2020/12 (4 December 2020) requested the Secretary-General to cease periodic reporting on Burundi and to cover the country in the context of regular reporting on Central Africa and the Great Lakes Region. Security Council Letter S/2020/1168 (3 December 2020) included the strategy for peace consolidation, conflict prevention and conflict resolution in the Great Lakes region.

10 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Great Lakes Region

appointment of the former Director General stability; reconciliation; and the improvement Michelle Bachelet said the situation in the east of the DRC’s state mining company, Sama of the security situation. The statement also of the country continues to worsen, with human Lukonde Kyenge, as the new prime minister. underlined the importance of strengthened rights violations committed by a range of armed groups in areas with little to no presence of Con- The first parliamentary session with cooperation across the region. golese authorities, as well as by the Congolese the participation of USN took place on 15 In December 2020, CAR held presiden- military and police force. In her briefing, Special March. With allies of President Tshisekedi tial elections, resulting in the re-election of Representative and head of MONUSCO Bin- now appointed to several influential posi- incumbent Faustin-Archange Touadéra, and tou Keita noted a worrying increase in attacks tions, several sources have indicated that the first round of legislative elections. The by armed groups against the civilian popula- tion, particularly in the provinces of Ituri, North the influence of former President Kabila elections took place in a tense security envi- Kivu and South Kivu. has been reduced. ronment, amid persistent attacks by armed The security situation has remained diffi- groups across the country, in part as a result cult in the eastern DRC. On 22 February, the of mobilisation efforts by former President Key issues and options Italian ambassador to the DRC was among François Bozizé and the limited capacity of A key issue for the Council is how it can help three killed in an attack on a World Food Pro- the CAR security forces to respond. A newly to promote the effective implementation of gramme (WFP) convoy north-east of Goma; formed coalition of armed groups, the Coali- the UN Strategy for Peace Consolidation, an Italian embassy staff member and a WFP tion of Patriots for Change (CPC), contribut- Conflict Prevention and Conflict Resolu- employee were also killed. Attacks on villages ed to the state of heightened instability. On 12 tion in the Great Lakes region. In this regard, in the DRC by the Allied Democratic Forc- March, Council members reacted by adopt- members may choose to focus their inter- es, an Islamist group originating in Uganda, ing resolution 2566, which expressed grave ventions on ways in which countries in the have also been reported in recent months. concern over the deteriorating security situa- region can cooperate on cross-border security, The Security Council held a meeting on tion and raised the troop ceiling for the mili- humanitarian and economic issues, including the DRC on 30 March. Special Representa- tary component of the UN Multidimensional refugee flows, the COVID-19 pandemic, and tive of the Secretary-General and head of the Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Cen- trade and investment. UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the tral African Republic (MINUSCA) by 2,750 Another key issue for the Council is the DRC (MONUSCO) Bintou Keita briefed and that of the police component by 940. The persistent insecurity and violence in some on the latest report of the Secretary-General UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) also of the countries in the Great Lakes region. on the situation in the country and on prog- redeployed two infantry companies and two While countries such as the CAR and the ress by MONUSCO towards implementing military utility helicopters to CAR in support. DRC are discrete agenda items, members its mandate. It was her first briefing to the The second round of legislative elections took could reinforce the call by the Secretary- Council in this role, following her appoint- place on 14 March in what was reported to General in his 29 September 2020 report on ment on 15 January. During the meeting, have been a much calmer security environ- the implementation of the PSC Framework Council members voiced concern over the ment than the first round. for “Governments of the region to expedite security situation in the country, particular Cross-border challenges persisted across the establishment of critical national and in the eastern part of the DRC, and wel- the region. At the end of February, UNHCR regional disarmament, demobilization and comed steps towards the formation of a new reported the presence of over 300,000 reintegration frameworks”. DRC government. Other topics raised in the Burundian refugees in Tanzania, Rwanda, meeting included: the importance of greater Uganda and the DRC and the need for over Council Dynamics participation of women in the peacebuild- $222.6 million to provide adequate assistance There is wide concern on the Council for a ing process; MONUSCO’s drawdown and to them. COVID-19 continues to adversely range of security and humanitarian difficul- the associated need for intensified coopera- impact the socio-economic situation across ties facing the region. Among these concerns tion between the UN and the DRC govern- the region, while pandemic-related move- are the negative impact of the illegal trade ment at all levels; the impact of Tshisekedi’s ment constraints continue to impede the in natural resources, violence against civil- AU chairpersonship on improved coopera- delivery of humanitarian assistance. ians caused by armed groups, and ongoing tion across the Great Lakes region; the ille- human rights violations, including sexual gal exploitation of natural resources; and the Human Rights-Related Developments and gender-based violence. There are also dire humanitarian situation. During its 46th session, the Human Rights heightened worries about the security envi- Council held an enhanced interactive dialogue On 31 March, Council members adopted ronment in the CAR and the current political on 22 March on the human rights situation in a press statement on the DRC welcoming the DRC. High Commissioner for Human Rights situation in the DRC. the efforts of Tshisekedi to promote political

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Mine Action

Expected Council Action planning for peacekeeping operations. landmines, ERW and IEDs have increasingly In April, Council president Viet Nam is On 30 June 2017, the Council unani- been the cause of death of UN peace mission expected to convene a ministerial-level open mously adopted resolution 2365, the first personnel, as they are being used to target debate on mine action. Viet Nam’s Deputy thematic resolution on mine action, follow- convoys or to breach peacekeepers’ defensive Prime Minister, Pham Binh Minh, will chair ing a 13 June briefing convened by Bolivia, positions and camps. For example, the UN the meeting, which will be held via videocon- which also spearheaded the resolution. The Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization ference. Secretary-General António Guterres resolution recognised the threat posed by Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has recorded is a likely briefer. Possible additional briefers landmines, ERW and IEDs to civilians and 65 deaths among its personnel from attacks include Ambassador Stefano Toscano, the peacekeepers, emphasised the importance of using explosives since its creation in 2013, a director of the Geneva International Centre providing relevant equipment and training to number constituting close to 20 percent of for Humanitarian Demining, and Nguyen peacekeeping operations to reduce this threat, the mission’s casualties. In the first months Thi Dieu Linh, manager of “Project Renew” and called on parties to armed conflict to end of 2021 alone, MINUSMA reported 15 IED (an all-women demining team) at the Norwe- the use of explosive devices. incidents in which six peacekeepers were gian People’s Aid in Viet Nam. Resolution 2365 also requested the Secre- killed and 44 injured. A resolution is a possible outcome. tary-General to submit a report on its imple- mentation within a year of its adoption. The Key Issues and Options Background and Recent Developments subsequent report, which was issued on 29 According to the concept note prepared by Mine action is defined by the UN Mine June 2018, outlined possible ways to support Viet Nam ahead of the meeting, April’s open Action Service (UNMAS) as activities to mine action, including its mainstreaming into debate on mine action can serve as a plat- reduce the social, economic and environ- country-specific discussions and the planning form to discuss new threats and challenges mental impact of landmines and explosive and mandates of UN missions, as well as the posed by landmines, ERW and IEDs and remnants of war (ERW), including humani- inclusion of mine action in ceasefires and to discuss concrete measures to enhance tarian demining, victim assistance, stockpile peace agreements. The report was discussed coordination and tailor international mine destruction, and advocacy against the use of at a briefing on 29 June, during which the action support on the national, regional and anti-personnel mines. The Security Council Council was briefed by Assistant Secretary- international levels. regularly addresses issues related to mine General for Rule of Law and Security Insti- A priority for the Council is to pro- action and the threat posed by ERW and tutions Alexander Zuev. He underscored that vide UN peace operations with the tools improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in the mine action is a precondition for the success to address the threat posed by landmines, context of UN peace mission mandates and of stabilisation, peacebuilding and sustain- ERW and IEDs to civilians and to UN per- country-specific discussions, but it has con- able development. Zuev said that training, sonnel. In this regard, key issues include sidered mine action as a thematic issue on awareness-raising and capacity-building are how to design mission mandates the better only a few occasions. key to mitigating the threat posed by land- to address mine action from the mission’s The General Assembly has traditionally mines, ERW and IEDs, and he called on inception and how to facilitate ongoing mine been the main forum for discussing mine member states to provide sustainable fund- action training for UN personnel. action, and in recent years it has adopted a ing to the UN Voluntary Trust Fund for Assis- Another important issue is increasing link- resolution every two years on assistance in tance in Mine Action. ages between mine action and the women, mine action. While General Assembly dis- On 26 March, Kenya organised an Arria- peace and security agenda, as the participa- cussions tend to centre on the humanitar- formula meeting on the protection of peace tion of women in mine-related activities can ian impact of landmines, Security Council operations from the threat posed by IEDs, help raise awareness among larger segments debates focus on their effect on peace and in cooperation with China, Estonia, France, of conflict-affected societies. security in conflict and post-conflict situa- Ireland, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Vin- An additional matter for the Council to tions, including ramifications for the work of cent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, the United consider is ways of receiving more informa- UN peace missions. Kingdom, and Viet Nam. tion about the effects of landmines, ERW The Council first considered mine action Since 2015, there has been an increase in and IEDs in situations on its agenda. While as a thematic issue at an open debate on 15 casualties--most of whom are civilians--from resolution 2365 requests the Secretary- August 1996, which was followed by the adop- landmines, ERW and IEDs. In 2020, the General to provide the Council with infor- tion on 30 August of a presidential statement UN recorded approximately 7,000 civilian mation on these effects when reporting on on demining in the context of UN peacekeep- deaths and injuries due to landmines, ERW peacekeeping operations and special politi- ing. In this statement, the Council expressed and IEDs in areas with a UN mine action cal missions, many country-specific reports its readiness to consider mine-action con- presence; within that figure, 28 percent were do not include such information because of cerns in country-specific situations and noted children. In Afghanistan, IEDs are the lead- word-limit constraints. the importance of ensuring that mine action ing cause of civilian harm, with 872 civilians One option that Viet Nam plans to pur- is reflected in the mandates and personnel killed and 2,170 injured in 2020. In addition, sue is a resolution on mine action, ERW and

UN DOCUMENTS ON MINE ACTION Security Council Resolution S/RES/ 2365 (30 June 2017) was the first thematic resolution on mine action. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2003/22 (19 November 2003) was on the importance of mine action in peacekeeping operations. S/PRST/1996/37 (30 August 1996) was on demining in the context of UN peacekeeping operations. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/623 (21 June 2018) was on the implementation of resolution 2365. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8304 (29 June 2018) was a briefing on mine action convened by Russia.S/PV.7966 (13 June 2017) was a briefing on mine action convened by Bolivia.S/PV.3689 (15 August 1996) was the first thematic meeting on mine action.

12 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Mine Action

IEDs. This resolution could: Security on the gendered effects of land- by then-Council members Belgium and the • emphasise the importance of pre-deploy- mines, ERW and IEDs in different conflict Netherlands to promote a second thematic ment and in-theatre training for peace- and post-conflict environments. resolution on mine action did not succeed keepers on this issue; because of the US’s opposition to the inclu- • strengthen language relating to women’s Council Dynamics sion of a regular reporting requirement. participation in mine action; and While discussion of mine action is common Previous attempts by Council members to • call for the Secretary-General to include a in country-specific situations and in the con- introduce regular reporting requirements section on the effects of landmines, ERW text of peacekeeping operations, some Coun- on issues such as security sector reform and and IEDs on civilians in his annual report cil members are hesitant about adding it as youth, peace and security have also faced on the protection of civilians. another stand-alone thematic agenda item opposition, usually by permanent members A future option on this issue would be and are likely to oppose requiring a regu- of the Council; in some cases, this opposition to have UNMAS officials brief the Infor- lar cross-cutting report from the Secretary- has been overcome. mal Expert Group on Women, Peace and General. It appears that an initiative in 2019

Kosovo

Expected Council Action (PDK)—retained 15 and 19 seats, respec- final stages and conclude “with one compre- In April, the Council is expected to hold tively. The support for “Self-Determination” hensive legally-binding normalization agree- its first briefing this year on the situation in doubled since the last elections in October ment between Kosovo and Serbia dealing Kosovo. The Special Representative and head 2019, while the LDK and the PDK lost 13 with all outstanding issues”. of the UN Interim Administration Mission in and five seats. On 2 March, the EU Special Represen- Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on The parliamentary elections came after a tative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, recent developments and the latest report by turbulent year in Kosovo’s politics. In Febru- Miroslav Lajčák, travelled to Pristina, where the Secretary-General. ary 2020, Kurti became the prime minister he held meetings with government officials after his party reached a coalition agreement and leaders of political parties. He also Key Recent Developments with the LDK. A dispute over the handling briefed Kurti on the progress made to that The leader of the “Self-Determination” polit- of the COVID-19 pandemic led to the col- point in the dialogue. The following day, ical party, Albin Kurti, was elected Kosovo’s lapse of the governing coalition in March, Lajčák met Serbian President Aleksandar prime minister for the second time on 22 after which the parliament dismissed Kurti’s Vučić. Lajčák emphasised that continuing March. During the constitutive session of cabinet in a vote of no confidence. In June, the dialogue was a key factor in advancing the Kosovo parliament, 67 members of par- Avdullah Hoti of the LDK became the new EU integration for both sides. liament (MPs) backed the new government prime minister with support from 61 MPs. On 24 June 2020, the Specialist Pros- led by Kurti. According to the Kosovo Con- Soon after, “Self-Determination” petitioned ecutor’s Office filed an indictment with the stitution, a new government requires support the Constitutional Court to review the legal- Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC), charg- from at least 61 of the 120 MPs in the parlia- ity of the vote to confirm Hoti’s government. ing Kosovo’s then-president, Hashim Thaçi, ment. Speaking before the vote, Kurti said It argued that one of the MPs who voted among others, with a series of crimes against that some of the most pressing issues for the for Hoti’s government had been convicted humanity and war crimes. On 5 November, new government would be addressing the of a crime that should have disqualified him the KSC confirmed an indictment against COVID-19 pandemic, economic develop- from holding the elected position. On 21 Thaçi, after which he resigned as president, ment, and the rule of law. Regarding the Bel- December, the Court ruled that Hoti’s gov- citing the need to protect the integrity of the grade-Pristina dialogue, he said that Kosovo ernment was illegitimate, thus triggering an office and the country. Later that day, Thaçi would not make further compromises and early election on 14 February. was transferred to the KSC detention centre. would make resolving the issue of missing This year marks the tenth anniversary On 9 November, Thaçi appeared before the persons the main priority in the dialogue. of the EU-facilitated dialogue on the nor- Court and pleaded not guilty to all charges. On 14 February, Kosovo held early par- malisation of relations between Belgrade Formally established in 2016 by the Kosovo liamentary elections, in which “Self-Deter- and Pristina. In a 9 March press release, EU parliament, KSC is a special court based in mination” won 58 seats in the parliament. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that The Hague that operates under Kosovo’s law More established political parties that have the dialogue had resulted in some important and is staffed by international judges, with the been in power for most of Kosovo’s his- agreements between Serbia and Kosovo. He mission of investigating alleged war crimes tory—the Democratic League of Kosovo noted, however, that the EU strongly believes committed by the Kosovo Liberation Army (LDK) and the Democratic Party of Kosovo that the dialogue should now move into its during the conflict in Kosovo in the 1990s.

UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/964 (1 October 2020) was on Kosovo. Security Council Meeting Record S/2020/1040 (23 October 2020) was the transcript of the videoconference briefing on Kosovo.Other S/2019/120 (7 February 2019) was a note by the Council president that said the Council would hold briefings on Kosovo in June and October 2019 and that as of 2020, briefings would be held twice a year (in April and October).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Kosovo

Key Issues and Options UK and the US, in particular) have con- recognise its independence and strongly sup- Maintaining stability in Kosovo remains the tinued to question the UNMIK reporting port Serbia’s position. Six elected members Council’s primary concern. The Council will cycle and called for downsizing the mis- (India, Kenya, Mexico, Saint Vincent and the continue to monitor diplomatic efforts to sion in light of the relative overall stability Grenadines, Tunisia, and Viet Nam) do not advance the dialogue between Belgrade and on the ground. While the Council reached recognise Kosovo’s independence. Pristina and any efforts towards reaching a an agreement on a less-frequent report- The US has been the most vocal propo- final agreement on Kosovo. ing cycle in February 2018, it could also nent of a drawdown and eventual withdraw- Another issue for the Council is the lack of request the Secretary-General to conduct al of UNMIK, citing the level of stability in implementation of existing agreements in the a strategic review of UNMIK to consider Kosovo. The US has also asserted that the context of the EU-facilitated dialogue, espe- the effectiveness of the mission. mission is overstaffed and over-resourced cially the delays in the establishment of the for its limited responsibilities and that these Association/Community of Serb Municipali- Council Dynamics resources could be put to better use in more ties in Serb-majority northern Kosovo. In this Kosovo remains a low-intensity issue for pressing situations on the Council’s agen- regard, Council members will need to con- the Council and is closely followed mainly da. The UK has also called for a review of sider how the new government in Kosovo will by members with a specific interest in the UNMIK’s mandate, arguing that the situa- approach the EU-facilitated dialogue, given region. This is due in part to the strong tion on the ground has changed. that Kurti has been critical of the talks. engagement of regional organisations, The issue of modifying UNMIK’s man- Also an issue for the Council will be Koso- including the EU, NATO and the Orga- date and its possible drawdown is likely to vo’s cooperation with the KSC since some nization for Security and Co-operation in become more prominent in the upcoming political actors in Kosovo have publicly criti- Europe, in matters related to Kosovo. period, given the growing number of Coun- cised its work. Should Kosovo limit its coop- Nevertheless, deep divisions among per- cil members that support this position. Alone eration with the KSC, the Council could manent members have continued to charac- among missions regularly discussed by the consider issuing a statement calling on the terise the Council’s consideration of Kosovo. Council, UNMIK’s mandate, established in authorities in Kosovo to adhere to its com- France, the UK and the US recognise Koso- 1999, is open-ended. Any attempt to change it mitments to the court. vo’s independence and tend to be supportive would require a new resolution, which Russia Some Council members (France, the of its government; China and Russia do not would strongly oppose and most likely block.

Libya

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments the travel ban and assets freeze, the report In April, the Security Council is expected to A 14-month-long assault by the Libyan notes that implementation of the measures renew the measures related to the illicit export Arab Armed Forces (LAAF, also known as also continues to be ineffective. of petroleum from Libya, which are due to the Libyan National Army) under General Regarding the illicit export of petroleum expire on 30 April, and the mandate of the Khalifa Haftar against Libya’s capital, Trip- from Libya, the panel reports that authori- Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanc- oli, and the internationally recognised Liby- ties in the east of the country continue to tions Committee, which expires on 15 May. an Government of National Accord (GNA) smuggle fuel overland “at a small scale”. The authorisation given through resolu- based there was halted by armed groups The COVID-19 pandemic has brought tion 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be supporting the GNA in June 2020. Both the efforts to illicitly export petroleum by sea in violation of the arms embargo) expires on LAAF and the GNA receive foreign military to a temporary halt. According to the report, 5 June, and the authorisation given through backing in violation of UN sanctions. Tur- authorities in the east also continue to try to resolution 2491 (to inspect vessels suspect- key’s support for the GNA eventually turned import aviation fuel. ed of being used for migrant smuggling or the conflict in its favour. The 8 March final On the presence of foreign fighters, the human trafficking) expires on 3 October. report of the Panel of Experts calls the panel reports that armed groups from Chad The mandate of the UN Support Mission in arms embargo “totally ineffective”, and and Sudan, fighting for the LAAF, continue Libya (UNSMIL) expires on 15 September. describes its violations by the foreign back- to be active in the country’s conflict. Between ers as “extensive, blatant and with complete 4,000 and 13,000 fighters from Syria are sup- disregard for the sanctions measures”. On porting either the GNA or the LAAF. The

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2546 (2 October 2020) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. S/RES/2542 (15 September 2020) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2021; it was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). S/RES/2526 (5 June 2020) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo. S/RES/2509 (11 February 2020) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2021 as well as the measures related to the illicit export from Libya of petroleum until 30 April 2021; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). Sanctions Committee Document S/2021/229 (8 March 2021) was the final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. Security Council Letter S/2021/70 (21 January 2021) was from the Permanent Representative of Libya, containing a letter from the head of the GNA, Fayez al- Serraj, requesting UN support for the electoral process.

14 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Libya panel established that on 22 January 2020 and presidential elections will be held on contained in the ceasefire agreement to a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based com- 24 December 2021. The members of the adopt a resolution supporting compliance pany deployed 267 Sudanese recruits to Lib- LPDF agreed on a “reformed executive of all national and international stakehold- ya, where the LAAF assigned them to pro- authority”, which will lead a “government of ers with the 23 October 2020 ceasefire tect the Ras Lanuf oil terminal. The recruits national unity” until the elections are held. agreement between the Libyan conflict par- protested and were withdrawn after six days. The reformed executive authority consists ties, based on the information conveyed to Also identified as being in Libya were 800 of a three-member Presidency Council, in Council members in the Secretary-Gener- to 1,200 fighters employed by the Wagner addition to a prime minister and two dep- al’s report. Another option is for the Coun- Group, a Russian private military contractor. uty prime ministers. In a 21 January letter cil to consider the GNA’s request for elec- The Kremlin denies any connection to the to the Council, Fayez al-Serraj, then head toral support with election observers. company. of the GNA, requested UN support for the On 23 October 2020, the 5+5 Joint Mili- electoral process, including election observ- Council and Wider Dynamics tary Commission (5+5 JMC)—consisting of ers. Voting by the LPDF on the candidates for The Council’s 12 March presidential state- five representatives each from the LAAF and the reformed executive authority took place ment reiterates its call for states to comply the GNA—signed a permanent ceasefire in Geneva in early February, as a result of with the arms embargo and to support the agreement, including a request for the Coun- which Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah ceasefire agreement, including the with- cil to adopt a resolution supporting compli- was elected prime minister-designate and drawal of mercenaries and foreign forces ance of all national and international stake- Mohammad Younes Menfi was elected presi- from Libya, but some countries, including holders with the agreement. The 5+5 JMC dent of the Presidency Council. The Council members of the Council, fail to respect this. also expressed its intention to set up a moni- welcomed this step in a 16 February presi- All foreign sponsors but Turkey deny their toring mechanism for the implementation of dential statement. On 5 March, Dbeibah role in Libya. the agreement. In its final report, the Panel submitted his proposed cabinet for a vote Divisions remain between Council of Experts called the parties’ commitment to of confidence by the House of Represen- members on Libya. The chair of the Libya the implementation of the agreement “ques- tatives, which approved the cabinet on 10 Sanctions Committee was last able to brief tionable”. The agreement further stipulated March. This was welcomed by the Secretary- the Council in September. Since then, the that within three months from the day it was General the same day and by the Council in committee has been unable to agree on the signed, “all military units and armed groups a presidential statement on 12 March. On chair’s statement. (Sanctions committee shall clear all confrontation lines and return 15 March, the new Government of National decisions and statements require consen- to their camps”. In addition, it called for the Unity (GNU) was sworn in. sus.) Ahead of the bimonthly briefing on departure of foreign fighters and mercenar- The new Special Envoy to Libya and head UNSMIL in November 2020, Russia raised ies from all sovereign Libyan spaces (land, of UNSMIL, Ján Kubiš, gave his first briefing an objection to an assessment by the Panel sea and air) within the three-month period. in this capacity on 24 March. of Experts that a merchant vessel had poten- That deadline passed on 23 January without On 25 March, Mahmoud Mustafa tially violated the arms embargo by carrying the implementation of those provisions. The Busayf Al-Werfalli, for whom the ICC jet fuel from the UAE to Benghazi in Sep- Council has received a Secretary-General’s had issued two arrest warrants for alleged tember 2020; it raised the same objection report on the work of the advance team that war crimes, was shot dead in Benghazi by again ahead of January’s bimonthly briefing was deployed to Libya on 3 March in sup- unidentified perpetrators. on UNSMIL. Similar dynamics played out port of the envisioned establishment of a ahead of the 24 March briefing. ceasefire monitoring mechanism under the Key Issues and Options Russia abstained during the adoption of umbrella of UNSMIL. The report describes The immediate issue for the Council is to resolution 2509 of 11 February 2020—the the proposed mechanism in more detail as adopt a resolution renewing the sanctions previous resolution renewing the sanctions well as the tasks, areas of operation, security related to the illicit export of petroleum related to the illicit export of petroleum arrangements, logistical considerations, and from Libya and the mandate of the Panel from Libya and the mandate of the Panel of prerequisites for the deployment of monitors of Experts (the arms embargo, assets freeze Experts—questioning in its explanation of provided by UNSMIL. and travel ban measures are open-ended and vote the relevance of new language that had The Libyan Political Dialogue Forum do not have to be renewed). been included in the resolution on the illicit (LPDF)—consisting of 75 participants rep- The conflict in Libya and related non- import of petroleum. resenting the main Libyan geographical, compliance with the arms embargo by mul- The UK is the penholder on Libya. T. S. social and political constituencies—decided tiple international actors have been ongo- Tirumurti, India’s Permanent Representative, on a “political roadmap” on 15 November ing issues for the Council. One option for chairs the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. 2020. The roadmap states that parliamentary the Council is to follow up on the request

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Yemen

Expected Council Action that the Houthis are prioritizing a military killed at least 45 Ethiopian migrants and In April, the Security Council is expected campaign” to seize Marib governorate. injured 170 others. At the Council’s March to hold its monthly briefing, followed by On the humanitarian front, a 1 March briefing, Griffiths called for an independent consultations, on Yemen with Special Envoy virtual donor conference generated pledg- investigation into the incident. On 21 March, Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-Gen- es of $1.7 billion against the $3.85 billion the Houthis announced the arrest of 11 secu- eral for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Low- requested for this year’s Yemen humanitar- rity personnel and a number of senior per- cock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads ian response plan. The Secretary-General in a sonnel, saying guards had fired three tear gas the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah statement described the conference outcome canisters into the facility that started the fire. Agreement (UNMHA). as “disappointing”. Briefing the Council at its On 4 March, at least 20 migrants drowned 16 March meeting, Lowcock said the result when human traffickers forced dozens of pas- Key Recent Developments meant that the UN would be unable to stop sengers to jump off a crowded boat in Dji- The Houthi rebel group continues its offen- “the protracted process of starvation” facing bouti bound for Yemen. sive to take Marib governorate, rich in oil and millions of Yemenis. The UN also raised the A second wave of COVID-19 spread gas reserves, and the Yemeni government’s alarm in March about the fuel shortage in through Yemen during March. On 23 March, last stronghold in northern Yemen. The front- northern Yemen that has been driving up the government declared a health emergency line lies just outside Marib City, home to prices of food and health care, as the govern- in areas under its control. The transportation around two million people, including many of ment and coalition have prohibited any fuel minister of the Houthi authorities in Sana’a, the one million internally displaced Yemenis imports through Hodeidah ports since Janu- Zakaria al-Shami, died from coronavirus who fled to Marib governorate during the ary. Yemen also featured prominently at an 11 on 21 March, while Houthi Prime Minister war. The Houthis also continue an intensi- March open debate on conflict-induced hun- Abdulaziz bin Habtour was hospitalised. fied drone and missile campaign against Sau- ger. The meeting included the participation di Arabia. They claimed responsibility for a of World Food Programme Executive Direc- Sanctions-Related Developments 7 March attack on a Saudi Aramco oil com- tor David Beasley, who had just visited Yemen On 26 March, the Yemen Panel of Experts briefed the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee on its pany facility at Ras Tanura, the world’s largest and, with other speakers, warned about the investigation into the 30 December 2020 attack oil export terminal, on the Persian Gulf and risk of widespread famine in Yemen. on Aden airport that targeted the new Yemeni an attack using armed drones on 19 March At the 16 March briefing, Nirvana cabinet arriving from Saudi Arabia. According to ignited a fire at an Aramco installation in Shawky, the regional director for the Middle a confidential “ad hoc” report, which was shared Riyadh. Attacks on the six-year anniversary East and North Africa of CARE, an inter- with the Committee, the Panel apparently deter- mined that the rockets used in the attack were of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention on national humanitarian organisation operat- fired from Houthi-controlled territory and were behalf of the government on 25 March set ing in Yemen, also briefed. Shawky urged the known to be used only by the Houthis. The Panel fire to a fuel storage tank in Jizan. Council to address economic recovery as an did not go so far as to assign responsibility to the Fighting escalated on other fronts in Taiz, urgent priority, help fill the $2 billion funding Houthis and will report further on the incident in Hodeidah and Hajah governorates as govern- gap in the humanitarian response, improve its mid-term update. Towards the end of March, the Panel informed ment-aligned forces and Saudi Arabia sought humanitarian access as an “absolute neces- the Committee that it planned to conduct a com- to alleviate pressure on Marib. The Saudi- sity”, and exercise its responsibility to end the plete review of its findings in the finance section led coalition also intensified airstrikes dur- war. Council members issued a press state- of its January final report regarding the misuse ing March on Sana’a and elsewhere. Briefing ment on 18 March that condemned the fight- of the Saudi deposit to the Yemeni Central Bank. the Council on Yemen on 16 March, Griffiths ing in Marib and cross-border attacks against It said that section IX.B and annex 28, as well as described the war as “back in full force”. Saudi Arabia. It stressed “the need for a de- related commentary in the executive summary, and Table 1. should be disregarded. In addition, Despite significant diplomatic activity, escalation by all, including an immediate end the Panel’s finance expert resigned. efforts to secure a nationwide ceasefire, re- to the Houthi escalation in Marib”. open the Sana’a airport, allow the unhin- On 22 March, Saudi Arabia proposed a Women, Peace and Security dered delivery of fuel and other commodity plan for a ceasefire under UN supervision, On 2 March, the Informal Experts Group (IEG) imports through Hodeidah port, and resume the re-opening of Sana’a airport to several on women, peace and security held its fourth peace talks remained at an impasse. US regional and international destinations, the meeting on Yemen. Griffiths; David Gressly, Resi- dent and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen; Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking deposit of oil revenues from ships enter- and General Guha briefed the IEG. Key recom- undertook a 17-day trip to the region in late ing Hodeidah into a joint account in the mendations were also conveyed to Council February and March to push for a ceasefire Central Bank’s Hodeidah branch, and the members by UN Women and further observa- plan with Yemeni, Saudi and Houthi officials. resumption of peace talks. The Secretary- tions were presented by the Office of the Spe- Speaking at a 12 March meeting on Yemen General released a statement welcoming the cial Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict. organised by the Atlantic Council, a US think Saudi announcement. The summary shared by the co-chairs of the tank, Lenderking conveyed a sober assess- March also saw a number of deadly inci- IEG, Ireland and Mexico, and the UK as pen- ment on reaching a deal, saying, “Tragically, dents involving migrants. On 7 March, a fire holder on women, peace and security, contains and somewhat confusingly for me, it appears at a Houthi-run detention facility in Sana’a the main issues raised and the proposals made

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2564 (25 February 2021) renewed Yemen sanctions measures for one year, condemned the escalation in Marib, and stressed the Houthis’ responsibility for the situation of the FSO Safer. Security Council Letter S/2021/264 (17 March 2021) was the summary of the 2 March 2021 meeting of the Informal Experts Group on WPS on Yemen. Security Council Press Statement SC/14471 (18 March 2021) stressed the need for a de-escalation by all, including an immediate end to the Houthi escalation in Marib.

16 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Yemen

by UN entities. Among the key topics were the Key Issues and Options the Yemen conflict. A related issue is how under-representation and exclusion of women A key issue is the battle in Marib. If Marib to promote an inclusive political process in Yemen from peace negotiations, political talks City falls and the Houthis seize the governor- that would involve Yemen’s multiple armed and decision-making. One example given was the total lack of women in the recently formed ate, it would affect the balance of power in groups and other stakeholders besides the 24-member cabinet of the government. Griffith, in any future peace process, significantly weak- Houthis and the government. October 2020, had publicly committed to include ening the government’s position. Council women in all upcoming talks and his office has members are likely to monitor developments Council Dynamics been involved in supporting and engaging the and support diplomatic initiatives for a cease- Council members support the Special Envoy local female Yemeni community safety actors in the context of negotiations for a ceasefire and fire. They could seek an emergency meeting and his mediation efforts. Members further confidence building measures. on developments around Marib City, reit- share concerns about the humanitarian situ- Regarding conflict-related sexual violence, erate calls for a de-escalation, and threaten ation and the threat posed by the decrepit the Office of the Special Representative of the sanctions on additional Houthi officials, mili- Safer oil tanker. The new US administration Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Con- tary leaders and economic agents if they push has placed a focus on ending Yemen’s war, flict emphasised that all parties to the conflict have committed such crimes. The parties had not forward with the attack. and this has reinvigorated diplomatic engage- committed to preventing conflict-related sexual The Marib fighting could also worsen the ment. A rare joint statement by the P3, Ger- violence nor had they taken any remedial action. humanitarian crisis, especially if it triggers many and Italy on 11 March condemned the In that context, the SRSG’s office welcomed the mass displacement of civilians and puts stress Houthi offensive on Marib City and attacks adoption of resolution 2564 on Yemen sanctions. on national relief efforts to prevent famine. against Saudi Arabia, asserting that “renewed With the resolution, the Council added Houthi Along with generating more humanitarian diplomatic efforts to end the Yemen conflict, official Sultan Saleh Aida Aida Zabin to the sanctions list for his role in overseeing a policy funding and relieving the fuel crisis, measures in support of the UN Special Envoy, with of intimidation and the use of systematic arrest, to support the economy, such as stabilising the support of Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the detention, torture, and sexual violence against the Yemeni rial, are important to ensure peo- international community, offer the best hope politically active women. ple can afford food. Council members may for ending this war”. UN representatives provided Council mem- reiterate calls for donors to provide addition- Russia often raises concerns about the bers with recommendations in response to the concerns raised. Regarding the renewal of al funding to the humanitarian response and Council’s singling out the Houthis, which UNMHA’s mandate, the Council could call on to inject hard currency into Yemen’s Central it believes could give the appearance of bias. UNMHA to systematically engage with women’s Bank to bolster the currency. This dynamic played out during negotiations organisations and to report on that engage- Another significant issue remains the on the 18 March press statement, which led ment. The Council was also advised to call on environmental threat posed by the moored to streamlining references to the Houthis and the conflict parties to commit to the prevention of conflict-related sexual violence. Regarding FSO Safer oil tanker in the Red Sea, which the removal of language on the Safer oil tank- the Yemen Sanctions Committee, the recom- the UN remains unable to access despite er in exchange for keeping one reference to mendation was for Committee members to con- previous Houthi commitments to allow it to the “Houthi escalation in Marib”. Russia also sider further listings of individuals identified by deploy a team to assess the ship and conduct questioned last month the Panel’s mandate the Panel of Experts as responsible for crimes emergency repairs. for being able to investigate the Aden attack. against women. Possible Council action included continuing to invite Yemeni female civil society Sustaining the Saudi Arabia-brokered The UK is the penholder on Yemen. briefers to participate in the monthly Yemen Riyadh Agreement, the power-sharing Ambassador I. Rhonda King (Saint Vincent meetings. Another recommendation was for accord between the Yemeni government and and the Grenadines) chairs the 2140 Sanc- Council members to support the deployment of the separatist Southern Transitional Coun- tions Committee. women protection advisors. cil (STC), is also important for resolving

Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations

Expected Council Action former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are security. Under Article 52 (3), the Council In April, Viet Nam plans to convene a expected to brief. A presidential statement is “shall encourage the pacific settlement of local high-level open debate on enhancing coop- likely to be pursued as an outcome. disputes through…regional arrangements or eration between the UN and regional and by…regional agencies either on the initia- sub-regional organisations. The meeting is Background and Developments tive of the states concerned or by reference expected to focus on the importance of confi- Chapter VIII of the UN Charter envisions from the Security Council”. Article 53 (1) dence-building measures and dialogue in the cooperation and partnership between the indicates that the Council can use regional context of conflict prevention and resolution. Council and regional organisations in the arrangements for enforcement actions under Secretary-General António Guterres and maintenance of international peace and its authority, although this is not to be done

UN DOCUMENTS ON COOPERATION WITH REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2020/11 (4 December 2020) underscored the impor- tance of developing effective partnerships between the UN and regional organisations, in particular the African Union. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8711 (30 January 2020) was a briefing on the cooperation between the UN and ASEAN, initiated by Viet Nam during its Council presidency.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organizations without Council authorisation. Article 54 frequently without much specificity. The Spe- summary of the meeting to be produced. This states that the Council shall be fully informed cial Envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, has could serve as a useful reference to highlight of actions “undertaken or in contemplation regularly called for the large-scale release of ideas for cooperation between the Coun- under regional arrangements or by regional detainees and abductees as a potential confi- cil and regional and sub-regional bodies in agencies for the maintenance of international dence-building measure in the Syria conflict, promoting confidence-building measures. peace and security”. albeit without much success. Several Coun- In recent years, such summaries have been In the last decade, there has been a grow- cil members have echoed his call for such helpful in capturing the key issues raised in ing recognition of the opportunities for a releases. One example of support by the UN Council meetings. productive relationship between the Council and a regional organisation for a confidence- In the future, Council members might and regional organisations. The AU has per- building measure on a Council agenda item consider convening an informal interactive haps the most established relationship with is the bi-communal technical committees in dialogue with UN Department of Politi- the Security Council, with peacekeeping a Cyprus. The Turkish and Greek Cypriot com- cal and Peacebuilding Affairs officials and principal area of their institutional coopera- munities on the island established these com- heads of various regional organisations to tion. In Europe, regional organisations such mittees—which address education, health discuss ways to build synergies between the as the EU and the Organization for Security care, crime, and other matters of common mediation structures in the UN system and and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) play concern—to promote enhanced understand- regional organisations. For example, such key roles in conflict and post-conflict envi- ing between their communities. The bi-com- a meeting would allow for an exchange of ronments. For example, the OSCE closely munal technical committees operate under ideas with organisations such as ASEAN– monitors the situation in Ukraine, serving as the auspices of the UN and receive financial which has been committed to confidence- an important source of information for the support from the EU. building in security cooperation in the Asia- Council about developments there. Pacific Region through its ASEAN Regional Briefings on the relationships with differ- Key Issues and Options Forum—and the OSCE, which could share ent organisations have become a regular fea- An underlying issue is how the Council can useful information on its experience in ture of the Council’s programme of work over work most effectively with regional and working with the EU and the UN on joint the years. Council members have held annu- sub-regional organisations to promote con- confidence-building measures in Georgia. al joint consultative meetings with members fidence-building measures to prevent and As an informal, closed meeting, an infor- of the AU Peace and Security Council (AU resolve conflicts. mal interactive dialogue might allow for a PSC) since 2007, and the Council has met A presidential statement is an option that freer exchange of ideas than is possible in to discuss the Secretary-General’s annual could be pursued. Such a statement could: an open meeting. report on the AU-UN relationship since • highlight the importance of confidence- 2015. It has also met annually for a brief- building measures in supporting conflict Council Dynamics ing by the incoming chairperson-in-office of prevention and mediation efforts; Most Council members emphasise the impor- the OSCE and on UN-EU cooperation since • encourage the mediation work of the UN’s tance of conflict prevention and mediation 2001 and 2010, respectively. envoys, including ways in which they have at the thematic level. There is also clear sup- In addition to these annual meetings, cooperated with regional and sub-regional port for enhancing the relationship between Council presidents have chosen to hold organisations with regard to conflict pre- the UN and regional organisations in this briefings or debates on the relationship vention and resolution; and regard. Interest in strengthening the interac- between the Council and regional organ- • request a special report from the Sec- tion between the Council and regional organ- isations. In this respect, since January 2020, retary-General on ways in which the isations is reflected by the high number of the Council has met to discuss its relation- Council and regional entities can work formal meetings that are held in the Council ships with the Association of Southeast together to build confidence and promote on these relationships. The April meeting will Asian Nations (ASEAN), the International dialogue among parties to disputes and present an opportunity to explore an issue— Organization of La Francophonie, and the best practices in this regard. The report confidence-building measures—that is rarely League of Arab States. could examine particular situations where discussed in depth in the Council. Confidence-building measures are occa- enhanced cooperation on confidence- sionally raised in Secretary-General’s reports building measures could be explored. and discussed in Council meetings, but Another possible option is for a chair’s

18 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Western Sahara

Expected Council Action independence as a legitimate option. Council members may call on the Secre- In April, Security Council members expect to On 10 December 2020, former US Presi- tary-General to expedite the search for and receive a briefing in consultations on the UN dent Donald Trump announced that the appointment of a new envoy and inquire Mission for the Referendum in Western Saha- US recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over about options to reinstate the political dia- ra (MINURSO), likely from Collin Stewart, Western Sahara, securing in return Moroc- logue. They are also likely to call on both the Special Representative for Western Saha- co’s normalisation of relations with Israel. In sides to return to respecting the ceasefire ra and head of MINURSO. 2019 and 2020, Burundi, the Central African agreement and to take measures for imme- The MINURSO mandate expires on 31 Republic, the Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Dji- diate de-escalation. October. bouti, Gabon, the Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Also an important issue, which is described São Tomé and Príncipe, and the United Arab in the Secretary-General’s 23 September Key Recent Developments Emirates established diplomatic presences in 2020 MINURSO report, is MINURSO’s dif- Council members convened virtually on areas under Moroccan control. According ficulty in accessing the Polisario-controlled Western Sahara on 21 December 2020, to the latest report of the Secretary-General, area to the east of the berm that separates when Germany called for a Council meet- the Polisario Front criticised those actions as areas under Moroccan and Polisario control. ing following several months of increased violations of international law and a breach Council members may inquire about the mis- tensions between Morocco and the Polisa- of the international legal status of Western sion’s progress in reinstating cooperation to rio Front, the entity representing the inhab- Sahara as a non-self-governing territory. access sites located in that area, as well as the itants of the Western Sahara region known The AU Peace and Security Council extent to which the mission is engaging par- as Sahrawis. The frictions included Polisa- (PSC) announced its intention to increase ties to de-escalate the current tensions. rio protesters blocking traffic between the diplomatic efforts to “bring about a just and The ongoing challenges posed by COV- Moroccan-controlled side of Western Sahara durable solution to the crisis”. In a com- ID-19 are another key issue. Council mem- and Mauritania at the border town of Guer- muniqué adopted on 9 March, it expressed bers may want to hear about the impact of guerat, following which Morocco deployed concern over the resumption of military con- COVID-19 on the population, how the virus armed forces into the buffer zone. The frontation. It mandated the AU Troika—con- is affecting MINURSO’s activities, and how Polisario Front subsequently announced it sisting of the current, incoming and outgoing the mission is responding to this challenge. would no longer respect the ceasefire agree- AU Chairpersons—to revitalise its engage- ment, signed by both parties in 1991. ment with both parties to the conflict and Council Dynamics The conflict has since persisted at a low- requested the AU Commission to take nec- The upcoming meeting on Western Sahara intensity level, and MINURSO continues to essary steps to reopen the AU Office in the will be the first on this issue since the new monitor the situation. In a press statement Moroccan-administered city of Laayoune to US administration has taken office. President dated 2 March, the Polisario Front reacted reactivate AU support for a political solution. Biden’s inauguration was followed by much to remarks by the spokesperson of the Secre- speculation about whether the new admin- tary-General, who had said that MINURSO Key Issues and Options istration would backtrack on the decision to continued to monitor the situation through- A key issue for the Council is how to rein- recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over West- out the territory and within Guerguerat. vigorate the political process, as the most ern Sahara. In April 2018, the US, as the pen- Criticising the mission, the Polisario Front recent round of talks between the parties was holder, opted to reduce the mandate cycle suggested that the spokesperson’s account in March 2019. In this regard, and in light from 12 to six months. This decision was reflected an attempt by MINURSO to give of ongoing tensions, the question of finding reversed with a return to a 12-month man- a false impression of “overall calm”. a successor for the former Personal Envoy date in October 2019. MINURSO mandate Since Western Sahara received its inde- of the Secretary-General has become more adoptions have not been unanimous since pendence from Spain in 1975, Morocco pressing. The post has been vacant since for- 2017. Russia and former Council member and the Polisario Front have contested the mer German President Horst Köhler left the South Africa both abstained during the vote area, which borders Algeria, Mauritania and office for health reasons in May 2019. Köhler on MINURSO’s current mandate. Russia cit- Morocco. A referendum that was supposed had initiated a series of round-table discus- ed concerns over lack of reference to the right to be held with the support of MINURSO sions, bringing together Morocco, the Polisa- to self-determination in recent mandates, and was intended to determine the region’s rio Front, and neighbouring countries Alge- while South Africa expressed a preference for status has never materialised. Morocco ria and Mauritania. Both Morocco and the a six-month mandate and the need for MIN- maintains that Western Sahara should be Polisario Front appear to have placed condi- URSO to have a human rights component. incorporated within its territory as an auton- tions on the profile of a possible successor, omous region, but the Polisario Front insists which is likely to have challenged the search that the referendum should be held, with for a suitable candidate.

UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2548 (30 October 2020) renewed MINURSO’s mandate until 31 October 2021. S/RES/2494 (30 October 2019) renewed MINURSO’s mandate until 31 October 2020. Security Council Letter S/2020/1075 (30 October 2020) contained the explanations of vote on resolution 2548. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/938 (23 September 2020) was the latest Secretary-General’s report concerning the situation in Western Sahara.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Colombia

Expected Council Action hearing testimonies from defendants. the killing of seven people and displaced hun- In April, the Security Council is expected to On 26 January, the SJP issued its first dreds. Overall, OCHA noted that in January receive a briefing from Special Representa- indictment, accusing eight former FARC and February, 13,422 people—including tive and head of the UN Verification Mission leaders of perpetrating a kidnapping-for- 5,574 children—experienced displacement in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent ransom operation that targeted more than or restrictions on their movement due to the developments and the Secretary-General’s 20,000 people, including many civilians. activities of armed groups nationwide. latest 90-day report on the mission. The SJP noted that some of the victims were Attacks against former FARC combat- The Council may adopt a resolution raped or killed and said that the kidnappings ants have also continued unabated. The expanding the mandate of the mission to amount to crimes against humanity. The Verification Mission verified the killing of 14 include monitoring compliance with the sen- accused former leaders have until 30 April to ex-combatants since the outset of 2021. On tences handed down by the Special Jurisdic- respond to the SJP’s indictment; in the mean- 26 February, the SJP stated that the govern- tion for Peace (SJP). time, they have indicated their intention to ment and other state entities failed to com- The Verification Mission’s mandate admit guilt. Public reactions varied, as some ply fully with its July 2020 order calling on expires on 25 September 2021. saw the indictment and the expected admis- them to implement mechanisms contained sion of guilt as a sign of progress in the tran- in the 2016 agreement to protect ex-com- Key Recent Developments sitional justice process, while others called for batants. Among other things, it called for the At the outset of 2021, some progress was tougher punishment for the former combat- National Commission on Security Guaran- made on the implementation of the Novem- ants’ actions and for banning them from par- tees—which comprises government officials ber 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the ticipation in political activities. and six civil society representatives and is Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting On 12 February, the SJP issued a report charged under the peace agreement with Peace between the government of Colombia that implicated the Colombian military in developing a public policy for dismantling and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas the killing of 6,400 civilians from 2002 to criminal organisations and their support net- Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del 2008, during Álvaro Uribe’s presidency. The works—to present guidelines for the policy Pueblo (FARC-EP), including some level of killings were apparently part of the so-called by 30 September 2020. The SJP therefore increase in the dialogue between the parties “false positives” phenomenon, whereby civil- issued a new deadline, calling on the govern- and progress in the transitional justice pro- ians killed in military operations were pre- ment to present the guidelines for the plan cess stipulated by the agreement. However, sented as combatants in official reports. The by 24 March. According to media reports, the persistent violence against communities numbers presented by the SJP were substan- the government had shared proposed guide- (including indigenous and Afro-Colombian tially higher than previous official estimates, lines for the plan with the entire National communities), former FARC-EP members, which had put the number of victims at 2,248. Commission on Security Guarantees on 24 human rights defenders, and social leaders Uribe criticised the SJP’s report, arguing that March, but the civil society members in the continues to complicate the implementation it was politically motivated, and questioned commission rejected them, saying their pro- of the 2016 agreement. the legitimacy of its sources. In a 19 Febru- posals had not been taken into account. During January and February, the SJP, ary statement, OHCHR welcomed the SJP’s On 10 March, Colombian President Iván the judicial component of the transition- progress on the indictment and the report, Duque met with Rodrigo Londoño, president al justice system established by the 2016 calling them “important steps in the fight of the “Comunes” party. (The FARC party agreement, made several crucial announce- against impunity”. decided to change its name to “Comunes” ments regarding its investigations, prompt- The worrying security environment in during its national assembly, which took place ing widespread public discourse. The SJP has Colombia persisted in the first quarter of in January). At the meeting, which was facili- the authority to issue sentences against those this year, resulting in widespread internal tated by Ruiz Massieu, the parties agreed to who acknowledge responsibility for crimes displacement in some areas of the coun- work on a roadmap for the remainder of the committed during the conflict, which can try. According to OCHA, during January, timeframe envisioned for the implementa- include up to eight years of confinement activities of armed groups in the border area tion of the 2016 agreement and to strengthen to one municipality to carry out work and between Colombia and Venezuela affected efforts to protect former combatants. activities that count as reparations to victims. both Colombians and Venezuelan refugees While the SJP continued making prog- As the SJP expects to start handing down in the area, leading to the displacement of at ress in its work, the Security Council has sentences in the latter part of 2021, it has least 200 people in Cúcuta and Tibú. OCHA been considering an expansion of the Ver- been conducting preparatory work, such as further warned about the surge in violence ification Mission’s mandate that would identifying seven cases it deems representa- in the Pacific-coastal city of Buenaventura, include the monitoring of compliance tive of the conflict (including kidnappings by which is a strategic area for drug trafficking. with SJP sentences. Following a 15 Janu- the former FARC-EP, extrajudicial killings Violence perpetrated by armed groups since ary letter from Duque formally requesting by agents of the state, and recruitment and late 2020 that has mainly targeted the Afro- the expansion of the mandate, the Council use of children); collecting information; and Colombian community in the city resulted in asked the Secretary-General to submit his

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2545 (25 September 2020) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia until 25 September 2021. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/1301 (29 December 2020) was the most recent 90-day report. Security Council Letters S/2021/186 (24 February 2021) contained the Secretary-General’s recommendations on the expansion of the mandate of the Verification Mission. S/2021/77 (25 January 2021) contained a meeting record of the Security Council’s quarterly meeting on Colombia, held on 21 January 2021. S/2021/147 (15 January 2021) contained a request from Colombian President Iván Duque for the expansion of the Verification Mission’s mandate. Security Council Press Statement SC/14425 (28 January 2021) reiterated Council members’ support for the peace process in Colombia.

20 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Colombia recommendations on the matter. begin, as it appears that at least one member dismantle criminal organisations in the coun- In a 24 February letter, the Secretary- had further questions about the budgetary try. Some Council members may therefore General said that the mission’s tasks—which implications of the possible expansion. wish to inquire about recent progress in this were formulated in consultation with the regard. Colombian government—would be to veri- Human Rights-Related Developments Another issue is the potential for ten- fy that those individuals who have received During its 46th session, the Human Rights Coun- sions in Colombia as the SJP continues to cil considered the report on Colombia of the High restorative sentences comply with them, and carry out sensitive transitional justice pro- Commissioner for Human Rights (A/HRC/46/76) that the government provides the necessary on 25 February. The report, covering 1 January cesses. Council members may wish to reit- conditions (such as budgetary and security 2020 to 31 December 2020, focused on security erate their support for the independence of support) for the sentences to be implement- and human rights; civic space; access to justice the SJP. Another option for the Council is ed. He noted that the mission’s role in veri- and the fight against impunity; and inequalities in to undertake a virtual visiting mission with the enjoyment of economic, social and cultural fying compliance can help build confidence representatives from the SJP, the government rights. It also assessed the implementation of the in the transitional justice arrangements con- human rights aspects of the 2016 peace agree- and victims’ organisations to hear their views tained in the 2016 peace agreement. The let- ment and put forward recommendations. Among on the mission’s new role, assuming that its ter outlines changes that may be needed to the report’s findings, it said that in 2020 OHCHR mandate is expanded. In this regard, during the mission’s configuration, including a dedi- documented 76 massacres involving 292 deaths the Council’s July 2019 visiting mission to and that OCHA documented 94 mass dis- cated headquarters capacity in Bogotá and Colombia, Council members’ meeting with placements, involving 25,366 people. In 2020, increased mobility to areas where restorative OHCHR registered the killing of 133 human rights representatives of the SJP was an important works will be carried out. defenders. sign of support for the court’s work. Council members held an expert-level meeting with the UN Secretariat on 5 March Key Issues and Options Council Dynamics to discuss the Secretary-General’s recom- The key issue for the Council remains to sup- Council members are united in their support mendation. It appears that most members port the implementation of the peace agree- for the peace process in Colombia. While they reacted positively to the suggestions, with ment in Colombia. The need to implement have generally been deferential towards the some posing questions on issues such as envi- the agreement fully, and not only selected government, some differences in tone have sioned timelines for implementation of the aspects, continues to be an important matter emerged since 2019. Some Council mem- mandate expansion and the mission’s inter- for Council members. bers have become more critical of develop- action with civilians in areas with indigenous Violence in Colombia is a long-standing ments such as the continued insecurity in populations, where a substantial amount of Council concern. The Council addressed this rural areas and the government’s uneven the restorative work is expected to take place. issue in numerous press statements calling for approach to implementing various aspects of At the time of writing, negotiations on a draft the National Commission on Security Guar- the agreement. resolution expanding the mandate have yet to antees to make progress in devising a plan to

Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

Expected Council Action requires states to establish domestic controls to discuss the 1540 review process. Due to In April, the Council is expected to renew to prevent the proliferation of such weapons. delays caused by the COVID-19 pandem- the mandate of 1540 Committee ahead of its In 2011, the Council adopted resolution ic, the committee decided in August 2020 expiry on 25 April. 1977 which extended the mandate of the that all activities related to the comprehen- 1540 Committee for ten years. It called for sive review, including the open consultations, Background the committee to conduct two comprehensive would be postponed until 2021. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1540 aims to reviews on the implementation of resolution Following the completion of an earlier address the concern that non-state actors 1540, one after five years and the other prior review of resolution 1540’s implementation, might use weapons of mass destruction for to the renewal of the committee’s mandate. in December 2016, the Council adopted res- terrorist purposes (individuals and sub-state In 2020, the committee was to have focused olution 2325, which called for further efforts groups are not covered under existing trea- on activities related to this comprehensive to strengthen implementation. In addition, ties dealing with nuclear, chemical, and bio- review, with the open consultations planned resolution 2325 clarified the reporting cycle logical weapons). It requires all states to pre- for June 2020 among the most significant of by deciding that the 1540 Committee would vent non-state actors from obtaining access these. This event planned to gather represen- brief the Council in the first quarter of each to nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons tatives of UN member states, international year in addition to providing the annual and their delivery systems. Furthermore, it and regional organisations, and civil society joint briefing with the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL

UN DOCUMENTS ON NON-PROLIFERATION Security Council Resolutions S/RES/1977 (20 April 2011) extended the mandate of the 1540 Committee until 25 April 2021. S/RES/1540 (28 April 2004) established the 1540 Committee. Security Council Letter S/2020/847 (27 August 2020) informed the Council of the committee’s decision to postpone all activities related to the comprehensive review, including the open consultations, until 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Other S/2020/1308 (28 December 2020) was the annual report of the 1540 Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

(Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee implementation of resolution 1540 that de la Fuente Ramírez (Mexico), briefed the and the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee. detailed the committee’s activities dur- Council on the work of the committee. At In 2020, the March briefing was post- ing 2020. In response to the COVID-19 the time of writing, the committee had yet poned as Council meetings were affected pandemic, the committee has had to take to adopt its programme of work for this year. by the Council having to adapt suddenly precautionary measures in conducting its Usually, the programme of work is organised to remote working. Then-committee chair business. While some activities, particularly around four main themes: monitoring and Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indo- those related to the comprehensive review, national implementation, assistance, coop- nesia) briefed the Council on the work have been postponed until 2021, the com- eration with international organisations and of the committee on 23 November. He mittee has been able to meet virtually, and other relevant UN bodies, and transparency emphasised the importance of resolution the report noted that it had completed and media outreach. 1540 in efforts to prevent the proliferation some preparatory activities. These include Given the delays caused by the COVID-19 of nuclear, chemical, and biological weap- the finalisation of committee matrices and pandemic, it is highly likely that the commit- ons; weapons of mass destruction; and their publication on the committee’s website, tee will be unable to complete the compre- their means of delivery to and by non-state approval of the outline of the final report, hensive review on resolution 1540’s imple- actors. Furthermore, he stressed the need and invitations to international and region- mentation, as required by resolution 1977, for all states to prevent such proliferation. al organisations to submit written inputs before the committee’s mandate expires on Notwithstanding the difficulties caused by on their work in support of resolution 1540 25 April. When adopted, the committee’s pro- the COVID-19 pandemic, Djani noted that since the 2016 comprehensive review. The gramme of work should provide more clarity the committee would continue to promote committee continued to strive to achieve on the timeline for completion of this pro- the full and effective implementation of the universal reporting by member states on the cess. One option, if it looks like more time is resolution and to assist states, upon request, implementation of resolution 1540, and by needed, is for the Council to consider a short- in strengthening their national capacity. the end of 2020, 184 out of the 193 member term extension of the committee’s mandate On 28 December 2020, the commit- states had submitted their first such reports. to allow for the completion of the compre- tee published its annual report on the On 30 March, Ambassador Juan Ramón hensive review.

The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

Expected Council Action concurred that the “building and expansion of the pandemic. On 21 March, the Pales- The Security Council expects to hold its quar- of settlements as well as confiscation of Pal- tinians—who have been receiving vaccines terly open debate, likely via videoconference, estinian structures and properties are a vio- from the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access on “The situation in the Middle East, includ- lation of international law and undermine (COVAX) Facility and some UN member ing the Palestinian Question” in April. Spe- the viability of the two-state solution”. states—began their national vaccination cam- cial Coordinator for the Middle East Peace A virtual meeting of the envoys to the Mid- paign in Gaza and the West Bank. Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. dle East Quartet—which consists of the EU, From 1 January to 17 March, 290 Pales- Russia, the UN, and the US—was held on tinian structures were demolished, displac- Key Recent Developments 23 March. Following the meeting, the Quar- ing 443 people, according to OCHA. At On 11 March, the foreign ministers of Egypt, tet members issued a statement calling for a the current pace, demolitions and resulting France, Germany, and Jordan met in Par- return to meaningful negotiations leading to displacements will surpass last year’s num- is with Special Coordinator Wennesland a two-state solution. They also indicated that bers (851 structures demolished, displacing and the EU Special Representative for the they had discussed the COVID-19 pandemic 1,001 people). Middle East Peace Process, Susanna Ter- and emphasised “the need for the parties to Following a preliminary examination of stal, to discuss ways to advance the Middle refrain from unilateral actions that make a almost five years, ICC Prosecutor Fatou East peace process. The foreign ministers two-state solution more difficult to achieve”. Bensouda announced on 3 March that the released a statement in which they under- The COVID-19 virus remains a signifi- Court is launching a formal investigation scored that “progressive and mutual confi- cant challenge in the Occupied Palestinian into alleged war crimes committed in Gaza dence-building measures based on a step- Territory. In February, active COVID-19 and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, by-step approach will help restore dialogue cases declined in Gaza, but they increased since 13 June 2014. (This was the date used between the parties, paving the way for a dramatically in the West Bank, according to by the Palestinian Authority when it referred genuine peace process that should resume OCHA. At the time of writing, over 2,500 the situation to the ICC in 2015.) The Pal- as soon as possible”. They also emphasised people had died from COVID-19 in the estinian Authority and the militant group their support for the two-state solution and Occupied Palestinian Territory since the start Hamas welcomed the decision, which was

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST, INCLUDING THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) stated that Israeli settlements are a flagrant violation of international law and called for immediate steps to prevent all acts of violence against civilians, including acts of terror.Security Council Letter S/2021/91 (28 January 2021) was a record of the quarterly debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”.

22 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question strongly criticised by Israel and the United Key Issues and Options Council Dynamics States. On 21 March, Israel rescinded Pal- A key issue for the Council is what role it The widespread position in the Security estinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki’s can play in reinvigorating the peace pro- Council—and among the UN member- travel permit—which allows him to move cess between Israel and the Palestinians. ship more broadly—is that settlement con- freely across borders separating the occupied The Trump administration had presented a struction is a violation of international law, Palestinian territories, Israel and Jordan—fol- peace plan that was widely rejected by Coun- that the occupation of the Palestinian ter- lowing his meeting with ICC Prosecutor Ben- cil members. With the change in US admin- ritories should end and that the resolution souda on 18 March in the Hague to discuss istration, there may be greater potential for to the conflict should be centred on a two- the Court’s investigation. considering a new approach. Several formats state solution, based on the pre-June 1967 Palestinian legislative and presidential have been discussed in the Council as options borders, with land swaps agreed mutually elections are scheduled for 22 May and 31 for advancing the peace process, such as the by the parties. July, respectively. The Palestinian Central Quartet, an expanded Quartet that includes The administration of US President Joe Elections Commission closed the voter reg- key member states in the Middle East, and Biden, who took office on 20 January, has istration process on 23 February. An esti- an international peace conference. The pledged to restore US support for humani- mated 93 percent of eligible Palestinian vot- Council could consider requesting a special tarian assistance and economic development ers have registered for the polls. On 16-17 report from the Secretary-General outlining programmes for the Palestinians, which had March, Fatah, Hamas and other Palestinian the viability of these different formats, how been cut by the previous US administration. factions met in Cairo to discuss electoral to integrate them into a coherent mediation The Biden administration has also expressed preparations. During the meeting, the Pales- effort and how to build trust and confidence its commitment to the two-state solution, tinian factions resolved to hold the elections between the parties. although it has expressed its concern with in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem Another key issue is how the Council, and what it views as anti-Israel bias in the UN. in a fair and transparent manner. the UN more broadly, can best support the In recent months, several Council The Council held its monthly meeting on preparations and holding of the Palestinian members have underscored the need for the situation in the Middle East, including elections planned for later this year. Council enhanced cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Question, on 25 March. In members could consider an informal interac- the Palestinians in the distribution of COV- his briefing, Special Coordinator Wennesland tive dialogue with representatives of the Pal- ID-19 vaccines in the Occupied Palestinian expressed deep concern with the expansion of estinian Authority to get their views on how Territories. Some members have also urged Israeli settlements and urged Israel to “cease the UN can best support the electoral process. Israel to provide enhanced vaccine access to the advancement of all settlement activity (An informal interactive dialogue is an infor- the Palestinians. immediately”. He further indicated that the mal closed meeting that Council members There have also been calls by several UN would “continue to support the Palestin- hold with one or more non-Council member Council members to revitalise the peace pro- ian people, including through facilitating and state or states, regional organisations or other cess. In this regard, a number of members are supporting [electoral] preparations”. invited speakers to exchange views on situa- encouraged by recent efforts to reinvigorate tions that concern them directly.) the Middle East Quartet.

Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments ceilings of 3,550 troops and 640 police. The In April, the Council expects to receive a Bilateral relations between Sudan and South resolution contained new language in relation briefing on the Secretary-General’s report Sudan continue to improve. Despite the con- to an exit strategy for UNISFA. It requested on the implementation of the mandate of tinued rapprochement between the two coun- the Secretary-General to develop options for the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei tries, however, little progress has been made the responsible drawdown and exit of the (UNISFA), due by 15 April, as requested in in resolving the final status of Abyei—the mission and to submit a report on these no resolution 2550. disputed area along the Sudan-South Sudan later than 31 March. The resolution noted The mandate of UNISFA and the mis- border—and the security situation there that these options should prioritise the safe- sion’s support for the Joint Border Verifica- remains volatile. On 12 November 2020, the ty and security of civilians living in Abyei, tion and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM) Security Council unanimously adopted reso- account for the stability of the region, and expire on 15 May. lution 2550, renewing the mandate of UNIS- include an option for a responsible draw- FA and the mission’s support for the JBVMM down and exit of UNISFA that is not limited until 15 May. It maintained the authorised by implementation of the Agreement on the

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2567 (12 March 2021) renewed the mandate of UNMISS for one year. S/RES/2559 (22 December 2020) was on the exit of UNAMID. S/RES/2550 (12 November 2020) renewed the mandate of UNISFA until 15 May 2021. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/1019 (15 October 2020) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNISFA. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8774 (12 November 2020) was the adoption of resolution 2550. S/PV.8772 (22 October 2020) was a briefing on Sudan/South Sudan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Sudan/South Sudan

Temporary Arrangements for the Administra- several long-standing issues, including: Secretary-General’s report on options for the tion and Security of the Abyei Area agreed • engagement by the AU on political media- drawdown of the mission, due by 31 March to by the parties in June 2011. At the time tion of the Abyei dispute and Sudan and as requested in resolution 2550. of writing, the report on drawdown options South Sudan border issues; was not available. • recommendations on the most appropri- Council Dynamics On 22 December 2020, the Council ate framework, structure or organisational The US, as penholder on the issue, put for- adopted resolution 2559 on the exit of the mandate for the region to provide support ward language about considering an exit UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNA- to the parties that will enable further prog- strategy for UNISFA during negotiations MID). The resolution terminated the man- ress in resolving the status of Abyei and in November 2020, which was included in date of UNAMID on 31 December 2020 and other border issues; resolution 2550. In its explanation of vote requested the Secretary-General to complete • efforts by the Special Envoy for the Horn following the resolution’s adoption on 12 the withdrawal of all uniformed and civil- of Africa to support the AU and help the November 2020, the US said that “given ian UNAMID personnel by 30 June. On 12 parties to establish temporary administra- the warming relations between the Sudan March, the Council adopted resolution 2567, tive and security arrangements for Abyei and South Sudan, a responsible exit strategy renewing the mandate of the UN Mission in and to achieve a political solution to the should be developed, and it must account for South Sudan for one year. (For more details, status of Abyei; the continued security needs of the people of see our What’s In Blue stories of 21 Decem- • progress in increasing UNISFA’s police Abyei”. The US also urged the AU to “play ber 2020 and 11 March.) component; a key role” in this regard and to support the The Council was last briefed on Abyei on • appointment of a civilian deputy head parties to achieve further political progress. 22 October 2020 by Under-Secretary-Gen- of mission, as requested by the Council The US has in the past pushed for troop eral for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix in May 2019, which at press time had reductions, asserted that UNISFA is persist- and Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Par- not yet occurred due to ongoing discus- ing longer than intended for an interim force, fait Onanga-Anyanga. sions between Sudan and South Sudan and pressed for a viable exit strategy for the on the subject; mission. Key Issues and Options • usage of Athony airport; and At the 22 October 2020 meeting, the three A key issue for the Council to consider lead- • the issuance of visas to support implemen- African members (Niger, South Africa and ing up to UNISFA’s renewal in May is what tation of the mandate. Tunisia) and Saint Vincent and the Grena- modifications to make to the mandate and Another option is to consider requesting dines made a joint statement emphasising the force structure in light of the situation on the an independent review of UNISFA in light “continued relevance of the UNISFA man- ground. A likely option is for Council mem- of recent political developments between and date in stabilizing the Abyei area and along bers to take into account the findings and within Sudan and South Sudan, as expressed the border, and in bringing certainty amid recommendations of the Secretary-General’s in resolution 2550. these uncertain times”. They also endorsed report on the implementation of the mandate Also a key issue is what steps to take in the extension of the mission’s mandate. of UNISFA, due by 15 April. The report is relation to the drawdown and exit of the The US is the penholder on Abyei. expected to cover progress in relation to mission. These could be informed by the

Protection of Civilians: Protecting Critical Infrastructure

Expected Council Action The Council may adopt a resolution. objects indispensable to the survival of the In April, Viet Nam plans to hold an open civilian population…for the specific purpose debate via videoconference (VTC) on “Criti- Background of denying them for their sustenance value to cal Infrastructure: The Protection of Objects One of Viet Nam’s priorities during its Secu- the civilian population or to the adverse par- Indispensable to the Survival of the Civilian rity Council term (2020-2021) is the protec- ty”. The prohibition applies to food products, Population”, as one of the signature events tion of civilians and essential infrastructure agricultural areas for the production of food- of its presidency. Viet Nam’s Deputy Prime in conflict areas. The objective of the debate stuffs, crops, livestock, drinking water instal- Minister and Foreign Minister, Pham Binh is to consider the current state of the pro- lations and supplies, and irrigation works. Minh, is expected to chair the meeting, and tection of objects indispensable to the sur- According to article 54, these objects cannot Secretary-General António Guterres may vival of the civilian population. Article 54 be denied “for whatever motive, whether in brief the Council. Other briefers will include of the Additional Protocol I to the Geneva order to starve out civilians, to cause them to ICRC President Peter Maurer and a repre- Conventions (1977) states: “It is prohibited move away, or for any other motive”. In the sentative of the International Peace Institute. to attack, destroy, remove or render useless context of the Security Council open debate,

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2341 (13 February 2017) was on the protection of civilian infrastructure against terrorist attacks. Security Council Meeting S/PV.7882 (13 February 2017) was the open debate initiated by Ukraine on the protection of critical infrastructure against terrorist attacks. Secretary- General’s Report S/2020/366 (6 May 2020) was the Secretary-General’s annual report on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

24 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 Protection of Civilians: Protecting Critical Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Infrastructure Executive Director

Shamala Kandiah Thompson Chief Operating Officer objects indispensable to the survival of the raise awareness about vulnerabilities and the Paul Romita civilian population will include those men- impact of terrorist attacks on critical infra- Managing Editor tioned in the Geneva Conventions. structure—including international airports, Vladimir Sesar Development and Outreach Manager While it is rare for the Council to focus on nuclear plants, water supplies, and health this issue at the thematic level, the destruc- facilities—while promoting discussion of Audrey Waysse Operations Manager tion of objects indispensable to the survival preventive measures. At the beginning of Alina Entelis of the civilian population has been mentioned the open debate, the Council unanimously Policy Analyst numerous times in the Secretary-General’s adopted resolution 2341 on the protection of Tiffany Jenkins annual protection of civilians report, in coun- critical infrastructure against terrorist threats. Policy Analyst try-specific Security Council resolutions and A key element of the resolution is enhanc- Lindiwe Knutson in connection with other thematic agenda ing international and regional cooperation Policy Analyst items. In a briefing to the Security Council to protect critical infrastructure. Robert Schupp on 27 May 2020, Secretary-General Guterres Despite the Secretary-General’s appeal for Policy Analyst said that his latest protection of civilians an immediate global ceasefire on 23 March Vanessa Tiede report published that month “showed little 2020 to fight COVID-19 in conflict-affected Policy Analyst progress on the protection of civilians, and on countries, conflicts continue to rage across Benjamin Villanti compliance with international law in 2019”. the world. During the April meeting, Coun- Policy Analyst The report noted that direct or indiscriminate cil members are likely to reiterate the impor- Anna Haven attacks by parties to conflict had damaged tance of protecting civilian populations and Publications Assistant or destroyed homes, schools, hospitals, mar- infrastructure, as well as humanitarian and N’Dango Athie Intern kets, places of worship, and essential civilian health workers, medical facilities, and hospi- Security Council Report is a non-profit infrastructure, such as electrical and water tals that continue to come under attack. organisation supported by the Governments of systems. He added that protracted armed Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, conflicts undermine efforts to repair and Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, maintain infrastructure such as water facili- New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, ties, which can also affect the environment Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, and Carnegie and the ecosystem of water resources. In his Corporation. report, the Secretary-General welcomed the increased attention paid by member states, Design Point Five, NY international organisations and civil society Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 to environmental damage caused by armed New York NY 10017 conflicts, and mentioned the open Arria- Telephone +1 212 759 6394 formula meeting held in December 2019 on Fax +1 212 759 4038 the “Protection of the Environment during Web securitycouncilreport.org Armed Conflict” hosted by Estonia, Germa- Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter ny, Kuwait, and Peru. The latest protection of civilians report also indicated that in many situations of con- flict, attacks on schools included the burn- ing of facilities and the destruction of school equipment. According to UNICEF, after ten years of war in Syria, one in three schools can no longer be used because they have been destroyed, damaged or are being used for military purposes; such attacks impede long- term development and have an impact on an entire generation’s access to education. During its presidency of the Security Council in February 2017, Ukraine held an open debate on the protection of criti- cal infrastructure against terrorist attacks, which was a priority issue for the country. The objective of the open debate was to

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