Monthly Forecast
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April 2021 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The In April, Viet Nam will have the presidency of the Sanctions Committee. Security Council and Security Council. Other African issues include meetings on: Mercenarism Viet Nam has chosen to hold several signature • Mali, on the Secretary-General’s most recent 3 Status Update since our events during the month. A ministerial-level open MINUSMA report; March Forecast debate on mine action is anticipated with UN • The Great Lakes region, on the Secretary- 5 Women, Peace and Secretary-General António Guterres as a likely General’s bi-annual report on the Peace, Secu- Security briefer. A resolution is a possible outcome. rity and Cooperation Framework; 7 Mali A high-level open debate on enhancing coop- • Western Sahara, to receive a briefing on devel- eration between the UN and regional and sub- opments and MINURSO’s operations; and 8 Syria regional organisations, focusing on confidence- • Sudan/South Sudan, on the Secretary-Gener- 10 Great Lakes Region building measures and dialogue, is also planned. al’s report on the implementation of the man- 12 Mine Action Secretary-General Guterres, former Secretary- date of UNISFA. 13 Kosovo General Ban Ki-moon, and representatives of Regarding the Middle East, there will be the 14 Libya regional organisations are anticipated briefers. A regular briefings on the political, humanitarian presidential statement is likely to be pursued. and chemical weapons tracks in Syria, as well as 16 Yemen Viet Nam also plans to hold a ministerial-lev- the monthly meeting on developments in Yemen. 17 Cooperation Between el open debate on the protection of civilian infra- The quarterly open debate on the Middle the UN and Regional structure. Secretary-General Guterres may brief. East, including the Palestinian Question, is also Organisations Other briefers are expected to include ICRC scheduled for April. 19 Western Sahara President Peter Maurer and a representative of A briefing on Kosovo, focusing on recent 20 Colombia the International Peace Institute. A resolution is developments and the latest report of the Sec- 21 Non-Proliferation (1540 a potential outcome. retary-General, is the one European issue cur- Committee) The annual open debate on conflict-related rently anticipated on the Council’s programme 22 The Middle East, sexual violence is expected in April. Special Rep- this month. including the resentative on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Regarding the Americas, there will be a meeting Palestinian Question Patten is expected to brief. Representatives of civil on Colombia, focusing on recent developments 23 Sudan/South Sudan society are also likely to participate. and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report The mandate of the 1540 Committee—which on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. The 24 Protection of Civilians: Protecting Critical aims to address concerns that non-state actors Council may also adopt a resolution expanding Infrastructure might use weapons of mass destruction for terror- the mandate of the mission to include monitoring ist purposes—will be renewed in April. compliance with the sentences handed down by The Council is also expected this month to the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP). renew the measures related to the illicit export Council members will also most likely closely of petroleum from Libya and the mandate of follow developments in Ethiopia and Myanmar. the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The Security Council 31 March 2021 and Mercenarism This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please Mercenaries, the proverbial soldiers of fortune, years ago. During the Middle Ages, so-called subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” have been part of conflict for almost as long as condottieri (Italian for “contractors”) regularly series at securitycouncilreport.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. conflict has existed. Historical records suggest provided fee-based military services to city- that mercenaries were used by the Carthaginians states. Following well-publicised mercenary against Rome during the Punic Wars some 2,400 involvements in Africa in the late 1960s and 1970s, Security Council Report Monthly Forecast April 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Guns for Hire — The Security Council and Mercenarism the post-Cold War period gave new impetus to operational combat support”, growing to an of firms for potential misconduct”. It also private military forces, including high-profile estimated deployment of 800 to 1,200. (Wag- “articulates the most pertinent international cases of mercenarism in Equatorial Guinea, ner Group has also reportedly been operating legal obligations with regard to PMSCs and Papua New Guinea and Sierra Leone by the in Syria and the Central African Republic; the debunks the prevailing misconception that late 1990s and early 2000s. government in Moscow denies any ties to the private contractors operate in a legal vacu- Recently, mercenaries have been heavily group.) Finally, the panel alleged that Tur- um”. It is currently supported by 57 states as involved in illicit, destabilising activities in a key’s SADAT International Defense Consul- well as the EU, NATO and the Organisation number of countries on the Security Coun- tancy has recruited and trained Syrian fight- for Security and Co-operation in Europe cil’s agenda. These actions have taken mul- ers. Turkey is the largest military backer of (OSCE). In September 2017, the Human tiple forms, including attempts to overthrow the Libyan Government of National Accord. Rights Council (HRC) established an open- governments, as was the case in Equatorial Mercenarism is big business, often entail- ended working group tasked with develop- Guinea in December 2017, just days before ing multinational personnel and highly ing an international regulatory framework starting its two-year Council term; taking sophisticated weaponry. While mercenary relating to the activities of PMSCs (resolu- control of natural resources, as has been seen groups are ostensibly private entities, they tion 36/11). It first met in May 2019. in Syria and the Central African Republic; can allow sponsoring states to advance Despite the persistently destabilising effect fighting on behalf of governments, as hap- national interests by outsourcing conflict. of mercenaries on international peace and pened in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020; and Further complicating the picture, private stability, addressing mercenarism has rarely helping to protect embattled national gov- entities occupy a spectrum from merce- been at the centre of global attention, and ernments, as apparently occurred this year in naries to so-called ‘legitimate’ actors who, overall, the United Nations’ attention to the the Central African Republic. With Council- States argue, are not mercenaries and don’t subject has been modest. In 1987, the UN mandated UN peace operations in some of participate in hostilities. Commission on Human Rights (the prede- these same countries, the activities of mer- International legal and normative foun- cessor of the HRC) created a Special Rappor- cenaries could complicate the UN’s work, dations against mercenary activities include teur on the use of mercenaries. In 2005, the potentially undermining or disrupting the the 1989 International Convention against commission ended this position, creating a mission’s ability to fulfil its mandate. the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Train- new Working Group on the use of mercenar- No country provides a better current ing of Mercenaries and the 1977 Convention ies that focuses on “mercenaries as a means example of the proliferation and globalisa- for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Afri- of violating human rights and impeding the tion of mercenary groups than Libya. Pri- ca, negotiated by the Organization of Afri- exercise of the rights of people to self-deter- vate entities, in support of different parties can Unity (the AU’s predecessor). Under the mination”. Composed of five independent to the conflict in the country, have been 1989 convention, which has 36 state parties experts, the working group is mandated to involved in deploying private military capa- and entered into force in 2001, the recruit- work towards strengthening the international bilities and violating, or attempting to violate, ment, use, financing and training of merce- legal framework for the prevention and sanc- the Council’s arms embargo in Libya. The naries are “offences of grave concern to all tion of the recruitment, use, financing, and final report of the Panel of Experts on Libya States”, and international cooperation among training of mercenaries, as well as studying released on 8 March noted that three United states is to be developed and enhanced “for mercenaries, mercenary-related actors and Arab Emirates-based companies, apparently the prevention, prosecution and punishment PMSCs, and identifying the sources and involving Australian, South African, UK and of such offences”. The 1977 convention causes of mercenary and mercenary-related US nationals, are alleged to have designed a states that the activities of mercenaries pose activities. In support of this work, it conducts plan, named Project Opus, to provide forc- a “grave threat…to the independence, sover- country visits and reports on these visits to es affiliated with General Khalifa Haftar’s eignty, territorial integrity and harmonious the HRC. Finally,