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(Type 2 Diabetes) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 REFERENCE CODE GDHC239DFR | PUBLICATION DATE JULY 2013 TOFOGLIFLOZIN (TYPE 2 DIABETES) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 TOFOGLIFLOZIN (TYPE 2 DIABETES) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 Executive Summary Major barriers that will restrict growth of Tofogliflozin: Key Metrics in the 10 Major Pharmaceutical Markets* Tofogliflozin sales over this forecast period include: 2022 Market Sales Side effects such as genital and urinary tract US $114m infections 5EU $32m Japan $20m Increase chances of dehydration in patients China N/A India N/A The below figure illustrates the sales for Brazil N/A Tofogliflozin in the 10 major markets (US, 5EU, Total $166m Japan, China, India and Brazil) during the forecast Level of Key Events (2012–2022) Impact period. Anticipated launch of Tofogliflozin in 2016 at ↑↑ US and 5EU Sales of Tofogliflozin by Region, 2022 Anticipated launch of Tofogliflozin in 2017 at ↑ Japan 2022 Source: GlobalData Total: $166m *10MM = US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), Japan, China, 12% India and Brazil EU = European Union N/A = Not Applicable US The values listed in this table have been rounded to the nearest decimal; 5EU totals were derived from the rounded numbers. 19% Japan China India Sales for Tofogliflozin in the Type 2 Diabetes Brazil 69% Market GlobalData expects the launch Tofogliflozin in the US, 5EU in 2016 and Japan launch in 2017. We Source: GlobalData. estimate that 2022 sales of Tofogliflozin will reach approximately $166m across these markets. Major factors that will drive the sales growth of Tofogliflozin over this forecast period include: Insulin independent and blood pressure lowering effects Tendency to cause weight loss or weight neutral Tofogliflozin (Type 2 Diabetes) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 2 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form. TOFOGLIFLOZIN (TYPE 2 DIABETES) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 Executive Summary What Do the Physicians Think? “Weight change direction or level and the risk of hypoglycemia, these are strong determinants for “I think that [the number of] people needing a the choice of the drug today or in the future even second and third drug is going to increase more.” dramatically in the next 10 years and that we will just see those numbers go up, up, up. Two things Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 are going to drive that up. One is the expectation “My biggest challenge [with type 2 diabetes] has that we’ll treat these people fairly aggressively to been the lack of long-term efficacy; that the get their A1c down to around 7 to 7.5. The target disease is complicated, the disease is resilient, and appears to be moving based on a few of the most of the agents are not potent enough to get studies, but we are not going to tolerate people everybody under control long enough. So, lack of after 8.5 and 9 like we used to. That’s going to efficacy and having therefore to combine drive it, and second is that most people are not medications has been my biggest challenge.” going to have a control over lifestyle, they are Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 going to continue to overeat and under-exercise and they are going to see their weight continue to “We have SGLT-2 inhibitors, we have the long- go up and therefore their need for more acting GLP-1 receptor agonists, DPP-4 inhibitors, medications will go up with it. So I think [in this] the and this will be quite a choice now for physicians to market, the sky is the limit on how much the find the right drugs or right combination of drugs.” market is going to be.” Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 “The SGLT-2s and the dual PPARs are probably “I think over the next 10 years the long-acting GLP- going to have a better impact long-term… the 1 receptor agonist therapies will increase the most, things that increase insulin secretion, somewhat because now you know the companies will be are similar to the sulfonylureas, they are going to developing once-a-week treatments… Longer- have hypoglycemic events, or they are going to acting preparations, if they are proved to be cause people to gain weight, or they are going to effective and safe, will be used more and more burn the pancreas out… I am much less because they really do have a benefit in weight impressed with them than I am with the SGLT-2s loss.” and the dual PPARs.” Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 Tofogliflozin (Type 2 Diabetes) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 3 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form. TOFOGLIFLOZIN (TYPE 2 DIABETES) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 Executive Summary “The whole concept of individualization of therapy “The endocrinologist recognized that being overly is very important; it is something that we practiced conservative can hurt the patients, so in other for a long time. Each patient is different. We have words if you say that there is no long-term data for to give quite a combination of drugs to each patient new drug that can prevent complications, you can’t depending on various factors.” wait. I am not going to wait for 10 years for randomized controlled trials to show me that Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 injection will dispel. If I know that it prevents “I think the use of metformin [first-line therapy] will complications, I am happy. We are not going to not change. I think it will continue, but the use of have 300 randomized controlled trials checking all sulfonylureas will decline… I think they will be possible combinations because now it’s so many gradually replaced by newer therapies, some combinations of drugs you could test. So, me and available now, some will be available later in the other colleagues, what we have been doing really future.” for years is that we know what works and we know Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 what doesn’t work … we know that we don’t have data but we really need to prescribe certain therapies without data, knowing what the advantages are. I think that the newer guidelines fully acknowledge the reality, that’s what endocrinologists are doing, I think the guidelines didn’t set up anything new, they are just catching up with what physicians are doing already.” Key Opinion Leader, April 2013 Tofogliflozin (Type 2 Diabetes) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022 4 © GlobalData. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied, reproduced, shared or resold in any form. TOFOGLIFLOZIN (TYPE 2 DIABETES) - FORECAST AND MARKET ANALYSIS TO 2022 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 List of Tables............................................................................................................................ 8 1.2 List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... 8 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Catalyst .................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Related Reports ..................................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Upcoming Related Reports .................................................................................................... 13 3 Disease Overview ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology ................................................................................................ 14 3.1.1 Etiology ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 Pathophysiology ............................................................................................................. 15 3.1.3 Prognosis ....................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.4 Quality of Life .................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 Symptoms .............................................................................................................................. 17 4 Disease Management.................................................................................................................. 19 4.1 Treatment Overview ............................................................................................................... 19 4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals.................................................................................................. 19 4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines ..................................................................................................... 20 5 Competitive Assessment ............................................................................................................. 26 5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................ 26 5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment .......................................................................................... 27 Tofogliflozin
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