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Political Attitudes in the Sudanese Diaspora and the Influence Of UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL POLITICAL ATTITUDES IN THE SUDANESE DIASPORA AND THE INFLUENCE OF REGION OF ORIGIN THE SIS PRESENTED IN PARTIAL REQUIREMENT OF THE MASTERS OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY STEPHEN BAIRD APRIL 2013 UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL Service des bibliothèques · Avertlsseaient La diffusion de ce mémoire se fait dans le' respect des droits de son auteur, qui a signé le formulaire Autorisation de rapioduire. at de diffuser un travail de recherche de cycles sup~rleurs (SDU-522- Rév.01-2006). Cette autorisation stipule que <<conformément à l'article 11 du Règlement no 8 des études de cycles supérieurs, [l'auteur] concède à l'Université du Québec à Montréal une llc~nce non exclusive d'utilisation et da . publication .de la totalité ou d'une partie importante de [son] travail de recherche pour des fins pédagogiques et non commerciales. Plus précisément, [l'auteur] autorise l'Université du Québec à Montréal à reproduire, diffuser, prêter, distribuer ou vendre des .· copies de. [son] travail de recherche à dea fins non commerciales sur quelque support que ce soit, y compris l'Internet. Cette licence et cette autorisation n'entraTnent pas une renonciation de [la] part [de l'auteur] à [ses] droits moraux ni à [ses] droits de propriété intellectuelle. Sauf ententè contraire, [l'auteur] conserve la liberté de diffuser et de commercialiser ou non ce travail dont [il] possède un exemplaire •.» UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL ATTITUDES POLITIQUES DANS LA DIAPOSRA SOUDANAISE ET L'INFLUENCE DE LA REGION D'ORIGINE MÉMOIRE PRÉSENTÉ COMME EXIGENCE PARTIELLE DE LA MAÎTRISE EN SCIENCE POLITIQUE PAR STEPHEN BAIRD AVRIL 2013 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work would not have been possible without the hard work and expert advice of my supervisor, Tania Gasselin. Her feedback has been exceptionally helpful. 1 also greatly appreciate my parents' support throughout this Masters programme and in the steps leading to it. A number of friends have also offered perspective, patience, or a helping hand; thank you especially to Emily, Sophie, Marie-Christine, Marie-Pier, Gabrielle, Dave, and Liz. Last but certainly not least, thank you to the twenty people who made time out of their busy lives to participate in the interviews. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ii LIST OF TABLES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 v LIST OF ABREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 vi RÉSUMÉ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 vii ABSTRACT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 viii INTRODUCTION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 CHAPTERI OVERVIEW OF THE SUDANESE CONTEXT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1.1 Pre-colonial and colonial roots of conflicts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1.2 Post-independence regimes and civil war 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1.3 Recent changes and the current political context 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1.301 Radical Islamist rule (1989-1999) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1.302 Changes in the regime and the oil boom 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1.303 Relations between the Sudanese governinent and Western countries 0 15 1.4 Peace between North and South and civil wars in today.'s Sudan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 CHAPTERII LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 201 Attitudes towards democracy, regimes, and institutions in sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and in Sudan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 202 Attitudes towards Western foreign policies and the ICC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 203 The political engagement of diasporas and of the Sudanese diaspora 0 0 0 0 0 31 2.4 Political divides in North Africa and surrounding regions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 205 Political diviqes in Sudan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 20501 Arab/non-Arab politics 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 20502 Secularism and religious orders 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 20503 Marginalized peripheries 0 0 0 o . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 2 0 6 Theoretical framework and hypothesis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 CHAPTERIII iv METHODOLOGY . 50 3.1 The Sudanese diaspora and the sample . 50 3.2 The questionnaire . 53 3.3 Potential biases . 56 CHAPTERIV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .......... ... ...... .. ... ........ 58 4.1 The role of the GoS in Darfur and in the Nuba Mountains 58 4.1.1 Marginalization and the maintenance of dominance .... ...... 59 4.1.2 Genocide .. ........... ..· ...... .... .... ...... .. 60 4.1.3 Politics of Arab identity, "race," and religion .... .. .. .. .... .. 62 4.2 Western intervention and UN peacekeeping . .. .. .... .... ....... 64 4.3 Democratization .... ...... ......... .. ..... .... ........ .. .. 68 4.3.1 Levels of repression and tribal politics . 68 4.3.2 The 2010 election . 71 4.3.3 Transition to a more democratie or secular regime? . 73 4.4 Discussion .. ..... ........ ..... .... ...... ........ .. .. ... 77 CONCLUDING REMARKS 80 APPENDIXA QUESTIONNAIRE . 82 APPENDIXB MAPOFSUDAN 85 BIBLIOGRAPHY 86 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2.1 Rule by a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections would be "very good" or "good" . 23 2.2 Attitudes towards dernocracy and the role of Islam in North Africa 26 2.3 Comparative measures of trust in and satisfaction with 27 governments and institutions in North Africa . .. ... ....... ... 2.4 Confidence in NATO in various African Countries. 29 LIST OF ABREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ABl/2 The Arab Barometer survey, round one or two AOI The Arab Opinion Index BBC British Broadcasting Corporation CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement DUP Democratie Unionist Party GoS Government of Sudan ICC International Criminal Court JEM Justice and Equalit)r Movement MENA Middle East and North Africa NCP National Congress Party NIF National Islamic Front NUP National Umma Party PCP Popular Congress Party SPLAJM Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement SPLM-North Sudan People's Liberation Movement- North UNAMID United Nations- African Union Mission in Darfur 1 l' 1 ! RÉSUMÉ Les attitudes politiques des membres des diasporas ont été peu étudiées à ce jour; ce constat s'applique tout particulièrement à la diaspora soudanaise (connue avant 2011 en tant que diaspora « nord-soudanaise » ). Ce mémoire présente un portrait des perceptions de la diaspora soudanaise au Canada en lien avec les conflits armés au Soudan, l'implication du gouvernement soudanais et des pays occidentaux, de même que la démocratisation du pays, réelle et envisagée. Le mémoire analyse également les liens entre la région d'origine des membres de la diaspora et les opinions politiques, posant l'hypothèse que l'affiliation régionale est un point d'ancrage important pour un clivage attitudinal.
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