The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
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The Extractive Industries and Society
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Original article
A sub-national scale geospatial analysis of diamond deposit
lootability: The case of the Central African Republic
1
Katherine C. Malpeli *, Peter G. Chirico
U.S. Geological Survey, MS926A National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192, United States
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Article history: The Central African Republic (CAR), a country with rich diamond deposits and a tumultuous political
Received 2 May 2014
history, experienced a government takeover by the Seleka rebel coalition in 2013. It is within this context
Received in revised form 28 July 2014
that we developed and implemented a geospatial approach for assessing the lootability of high value-to-
Available online 23 August 2014
weight resource deposits, using the case of diamonds in CAR as an example. According to current
definitions of lootability, or the vulnerability of deposits to exploitation, CAR’s two major diamond
Keywords:
deposits are similarly lootable. However, using this geospatial approach, we demonstrate that the
Conflict diamonds
deposits experience differing political geographic, spatial location, and cultural geographic contexts,
Lootability
rendering the eastern deposits more lootable than the western deposits. The patterns identified through
Central African Republic
this detailed analysis highlight the geographic complexities surrounding the issue of conflict resources
and lootability, and speak to the importance of examining these topics at the sub-national scale, rather
than relying on national-scale statistics.
Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1. Introduction In light of recent political events in CAR, it is highly relevant to
examine the country’s diamond deposits within the context of the
Diamonds have been linked to conflicts in several African conflict resources literature. Most literature analyzes this subject
countries in recent decades, including those in Sierra Leone in one of three ways: by comparing the deposits of two different
(Smillie et al., 2000), Angola (Le Billon, 2001), the Democratic countries (Le Billon, 2008), by averaging the experiences of
Republic of the Congo (DRC) (Samset, 2002), Coˆte d’Ivoire (UNSC, multiple countries (Olsson, 2007; Snyder, 2006), or by generalizing
2005), and Liberia (UNSC, 1992). Most recently, the international the characteristics of a single country’s deposits (Richards, 2001).
community has voiced concern that the diamonds in the Central All three methods fall short of identifying the state-level
African Republic (CAR) may be the latest example of a conflict geographic discrepancies of the factors that shape a deposit’s
resource. In December 2012, soldiers from the Seleka rebel group vulnerability to exploitation by rebel groups. Each method
alliance began a steady march toward the capital, Bangui. assumes that the physical characteristics of the deposits and the
Originating in CAR’s remote, diamond-rich northeastern region, socio-cultural and political conditions that surround each deposit
Seleka seized 19 towns on its way to the capital. There was a brief are nationally uniform. This study does not seek to determine
respite in violence following the signing of a peace agreement; whether diamonds are the cause of conflict in CAR; rather, it seeks
however, violence resumed in March of 2013, and by the end of the to understand how the vulnerability of a country’s deposits to
month President Franc¸ois Bozize´ had fled the country and Seleka looting may vary spatially. The authors argue that four principal
had taken over Bangui and control of the government. As a result, geographic contexts influence a deposit’s vulnerability to looting,
the Kimberley Process (KP), the international initiative tasked with or vulnerability to exploitation: the physical geographic (referring
stemming the flow of conflict diamonds, suspended CAR from to the geologic characteristics of the deposits), political geographic,
diamond export due to the lack of internal controls over the spatial location, and cultural geographic contexts. Focusing on the
diamond sector in the wake of the Seleka takeover (KPCS, 2013a). issue of conflict diamonds in CAR, this paper (1) uses a geographic
approach to perform a spatially quantitative analysis of the factors
that facilitate the exploitation of diamond deposits by rebel groups,
(2) identifies how these factors distinctly manifest themselves
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 703 648 6047; fax: +1 703 648 6953.
across CAR, and (3) argues for the need to shift away from the
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K.C. Malpeli),
current approach of assessing lootability at the national scale and [email protected] (P.G. Chirico).
1
Tel.: +1 703 648 6950; fax: +1 703 648 6953. toward assessing it at the sub-national scale. CAR’s diamond
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2014.07.009
2214-790X/Published by Elsevier Ltd.
250 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
deposits serve as the archetypal example of how the physical, (see Fig. 1). CAR is the world’s 12th leading producer of rough
cultural, and political dynamics that influence a deposit’s risk of diamonds in terms of value and diamonds represent 40% of the
being looted can vary within national boundaries. CAR’s two country’s total export revenues, with production fluctuating
principal diamond deposit zones are located more than 600 between 300,000 and 450,000 carats since the late 1960s (KPCS,
kilometers (km) apart, and while geologically similar, they differ in 2013b). While CAR is a relatively minor producer in terms of
terms of the strength of state control, access to and from the volume, the quality of the diamonds is exceptionally high.
capital, proximity to internal and regional armed conflicts, and the Diamond production in CAR has been nearly exclusively
degree of ethnic fragmentation of the local population. The artisanal in nature since independence in 1960, with miners
detailed level of analysis conducted in this study allows for the extracting stones using only rudimentary tools and techniques.
research results to have important policy implications, enabling Artisanal mining is frequently perceived as an attractive livelihood
government and development agencies to better target their option by impoverished populations due to its low entry barriers
limited resources toward a country’s most vulnerable regions. and potential for high earnings. However, it is also associated with
a high degree of uncertainty, as miners lack efficient exploration
techniques and often operate largely by guesswork (Jønsson and
2. Diamonds and conflict in the CAR Fold, 2011). It is estimated that there are approximately 60,000–
90,000 miners operating in CAR (Bermu´ dez-Lugo, 2011; Chirico
Home to 5.1 million people, CAR is one of the world’s least et al., 2010). It is important to note, however, that estimating the
developed countries, ranking 180 out of 187 countries in the 2012 number of artisanal miners in a particular region or country is a
United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development challenging task, due to factors such as the transient nature of
Index (Malik, 2013). The recent government takeover in CAR miners, poor record-keeping by mine managers, and the informal-
follows a turbulent history of political instability, defined by a ity of the sector (Heemskerk, 2001). It is made even more difficult
series of coups and attempted coups and the formation of multiple in countries such as CAR, where political instability and open
armed rebel groups. Prior to the formation of the Seleka rebel conflict are widespread.
group in 2012, three principle groups were operating in CAR: the
Popular Army for the Restoration of the Republic and Democracy
(APRD), the Union of the Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR), and 3. Natural resources and armed conflict
the Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP) (Bauters,
2012; Spittaels and Hilgert, 2009). In September 2012, the UFDR, 3.1. Conflict resources
CPJP, and a third group, the Wa Kodro Salute Patriotic Convention
(CPSK), aligned to form the Seleka rebel group (ICG, 2013). The relationship between natural resources and armed conflict
Members of the Ugandan-based Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have has been the topic of considerable study and debate since the early
also been operating in CAR since 2008, primarily in the southeast 1990s. Le Billon (2008) outlines the three prominent theoretical
(Bauters, 2012). arguments that have been put forth to explain the connections
Complicating this unstable political situation is the fact that between resources and wars: the resource conflict, resource curse,
CAR is home to extensive alluvial diamond deposits. The deposits and conflict resource theories. The resource conflict argument
are principally located in the southwest (hereafter referred to as focuses on the existence of a causal link between resource scarcity
the western zone deposits) and northeast (hereafter referred to as and specific types of conflicts, such as those over resource access.
the eastern zone deposits), and in a smaller zone in the southeast These conflicts are typically diffuse, persistent, and sub-national in
Fig. 1. The location of CAR’s diamond deposits and the Carnot and Mouka-Ouadda Sandstone formations.
K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 251
nature, and are usually the result of an unequal distribution of limited in its ability to differentiate between the several possible
resources, issues of resource control, and the failures of institutions causes of resources generating conflict and concludes that such
to adequately manage them (Homer-Dixon, 1994; Turner, 2004). conflict dynamics must be examined instead at the substate level.
The resource curse theory, meanwhile, is rooted in the idea that Buhaug and Lujala (2005) and Lujala et al. (2005) similarly argue
resource dependence negatively affects a country’s economic that most empirical studies on civil war rely on national-scale data
performance, and can increase the risk of conflict. Finally, the and thus fail to examine sub-national variations in the factors that
conflict resource theory, which is the focus of this study, is defined promote conflict.
as resources ‘‘whose control, exploitation, trade, taxation, or Studies that adhere to the methodologies outlined above lack
protection contributes to, or benefits from the context of, armed an in-depth examination of the physical, political, and social
conflict’’ (Le Billon, 2008:349). This theory is based on the idea that characteristics surrounding a country’s deposits, which can enable
high value resources can sustain and motivate war due to the the identification of local spatial patterns in factors that increase
financial opportunities they afford (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Le vulnerability to resource-related conflicts. As the case of CAR
Billon, 2008). demonstrates, the presence and strength of these factors can vary
Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2004) were among the earliest geographically between deposits.
researchers to suggest a significant link between resource
abundance and the risk of civil war onset. While many studies 3.2. The lootability of conflict resources
support the resource curse and conflict resource theories,
numerous studies challenge or refute them. For example, Previous case studies have established that some resources
Humphreys (2005) finds that the presence of natural resources appear to have stronger links to conflict than others and that
shortens civil wars. Further, some studies conclude that primary resource abundant countries have had different experiences with
resources increase the risk of conflict (Fearon, 2005), while others respect to conflict (Auty, 2004; Le Billon, 2008; Lujala et al., 2005;
argue that secondary resources are more lootable and therefore Samset, 2002; Silberfein, 2004). The existence of these inconsis-
can extend the duration of a conflict (Ross, 2004). Several studies tencies demonstrates that resource endowment alone is not a
have demonstrated that adjusting the empirical models used by sufficient explanation for the involvement of resources in conflicts.
Collier and Hoeffler leads to results that do not suggest a strong link Rather, a resource’s lootability should be explored, as this influences
between resources and conflict (Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2002; the ease with which a resource can be exploited (Le Billon, 2001).
Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Fearon, 2005). Alluvial diamonds are the Lootable resources are those that can be extracted by unskilled
secondary resource most commonly represented by the conflict workers and are easily transportable (Ross, 2003). Resources can
resources argument, and are the focus of this study. A study by be characterized as lootable or unlootable based on their relative
Lujala et al. (2005) was the first to concentrate on the specific role geographic location, concentration, and mode of exploitation (Le
of diamonds in conflicts. The authors found that the effect of Billon, 2001, 2004), as well as their value-to-weight ratio (Auty,
diamonds on the incidence of civil war depends on two principle 2004; Gilmore et al., 2005). Geographic location is measured by
factors: the level of existing ethnic fractionalization and the proximity from the country’s capital, with lootability increasing
geologic nature of the deposits. Secondary diamond deposits were with increasing distance from the capital. In terms of concentra-
found to be positively related to the occurrence of civil war, in tion, resources are defined as being point source or diffuse, with
particular in countries with ethnic fractionalization. point source resources being those that are concentrated within a
To test the resource curse, resource conflict, and conflict specific geographic area and diffuse resources being those that are
resource theories, many researchers have compared the experi- spread over large areas (Le Billon, 2001). Diffuse resources are
ences of two or more countries, or have broadly examined a single typically characterized as being more lootable, due to the
country’s experience. Such studies tend to generalize the physical difficulties associated with controlling vast territorial areas.
characteristics of a country’s deposits as well as conditions of social Examples of diffuse materials include alluvial minerals, timber,
and political stability, thus preventing the identification of local and agricultural products, whereas examples of point-source
distinctions within countries concerning these characteristics and resources include primary mineral deposits and oil reserves. The
limiting any ability to discern whether particular deposits are more techniques required to exploit a resource are determined by its
vulnerable to exploitation than others. Many studies also make physical characteristics. In the case of diamonds, resource
comparisons between countries that differ substantially in terms concentration and mode of exploitation are mainly determined
of the type, value, and physical nature of their resources, as well as based on whether the deposits are primary or alluvial in nature (Le
in terms of their political and cultural contexts. For example, Le Billon, 2001, 2008). Primary deposits are those that have remained
Billon (2008) compares the experiences of diamond-rich Botswana within their original source rock and require mechanized
and Sierra Leone. Yet these two countries differ in terms of the exploitation techniques, while alluvial deposits are those which
geologic nature and economic value of the deposits, the amount of have been eroded and transported downstream from their source
diamond-generated revenues reinvested by the state into public rocks by river systems, eventually concentrating in shallow
services, and the degree of mechanized extraction. These deposits throughout a river system (Marshall and Baxter-Brown,
substantial differences render it difficult to distinguish the key 1995). Alluvial deposits can often be exploited using simple tools.
factor(s) that influenced the presence (in the case of Sierra Leone) Finally, resources with a high value-to-weight ratio, such as
or absence (in the case of Botswana) of resource-related conflicts. diamonds, are deemed to be lootable due to the high rents they
Other studies, such as Olsson (2007) and Snyder (2006), examine afford and their ease of transport (Auty, 2004). In addition to the
resource endowment and history of conflict in multiple countries, spatial location and physical characteristics of resource deposits,
and average the results to make general conclusions. A final this study also examines the political geographic and cultural
common form of analysis involves examining the theories at the geographic contexts of CAR’s diamond deposits, arguing that these
country level. Though this method avoids the issues associated variables also influence a deposit’s vulnerability to looting.
with comparative studies, country-scale analyses are often not
detailed enough to clearly delineate causal mechanisms, as 4. The physical geographic context of CAR’s diamond deposits
national-scale statistics do not necessarily reflect local realities
(Le Billon, 2007). Sorens (2011) notes in his study on mineral CAR’s eastern, southeastern, and western diamond deposits are
production and ethnic rebellion that country level analysis is similarly lootable according to the current definition of lootability.
252 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
They are alluvial in nature, spread over vast areas, mined systems (GIS) (Buhaug and Lujala, 2005; Lohman and Flint, 2010).
exclusively artisanally, and have a high value-to-weight ratio. Multiple sub-national scale GIS datasets were used in this study to
These similarities are a result of their shared geologic history. assess the degree to which the political geographic, spatial location,
While no primary source of diamonds has been discovered in CAR, and cultural geographic contexts vary throughout CAR. Analysis of
the Carnot and Mouka-Ouadda Sandstone formations, located in these datasets was conducted at the level of the second-
western and eastern CAR, respectively, are thought to be secondary administrative unit, known in CAR as sous-prefets or sub-prefectures.
source rocks for the diamonds (see Fig. 1). The deposits in The sub-prefectures were then divided into ‘‘eastern sub-prefec-
southeastern CAR are also thought to be related to the sandstone tures’’ and ‘‘western sub-prefectures’’ based on the 218 E line of
formations, which have since eroded from this area. Only remnants longitude. Those sub-prefectures that straddle the longitudinal
of the former plateau remain in the southeast (Censier, 1996; boundary were allocated as eastern or western based on whether the
Chirico et al., 2010). The diamonds found within these plateaus majority of the sub-prefecture fell east or west of the line. Finally, the
originally eroded from their primary source and were deposited ‘‘southeastern sub-prefectures’’ constitue three diamondiferous
within two alluvial fan sequences in CAR. These alluvial fans were sub-prefectures located near the southern border with DRC.
subsequently re-consolidated over a period of geologic time and
subjected to tectonic and erosional forces. The diamond deposits 5.1. Transportation network
are now being re-eroded from the plateaus and reconcentrated
within Quaternary floodplains and Tertiary terraces, from which A transportation network dataset was used as an indicator of
they are mined (Chirico et al., 2010). the political geographic and spatial location contexts of CAR’s
CAR’s diamond deposits are generally of high quality, with diamond deposits. A country’s transportation network has been
approximately 40% of stones being of gem quality (Bardet, 1974). cited as the best available indicator of horizontal state integration
The diamonds located within the Carnot and Mouka-Ouadda within a country’s hinterland, as roads represent the level of access
Sandstone formations represent CAR’s two significant diamond of the state’s institutions throughout the country (Buhaug and Rød,
deposit zones. One distinguishing factor between these two 2006; Herbst, 2000; Raleigh, 2008). Furthermore, the quality of a
deposits is the fact that in the east, 85–90% of the stones are of region’s transportation infrastructure often mimics its degree of
high to medium quality (Bardet, 1974; WGDE, 2012). These stones political, economic, and social development (Buhaug and Rød,
are also often larger than those found in western CAR, with stones 2006; Fearon and Laitin, 2003). Therefore, the roads dataset is used
of 10 carats or greater frequently recovered. While the average in this study as an indicator of both state strength and remoteness.
price per carat in CAR is $169.79 (in 2012), the value of stones in Roads data were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey
eastern CAR ranges from $200 to more than $300 per carat (WGDE, (USGS) Global GIS dataset (Hare et al., 2003), and additional
2012). Some discrepancy exists concerning the quantity of processing was done to further attribute the dataset by road type,
diamonds located within each zone. Production figures suggest based on the classification of roads in CAR by Decoudras (1984).
that 65–75% of diamond production comes from western CAR, with Three types of road classes were used: primary, secondary, and
eastern CAR contributing 25–35% (Bardet, 1974; Censier, 1996). tertiary. For the purposes of this analysis, a primary road is a major
However, Chirico et al. (2010) calculate that the two plateaus are paved road, a secondary road is a major unpaved road, and a
similarly endowed with diamonds. This result suggests that the tertiary road is a trail or dirt track. Obtaining information on the
higher western zone production figures noted by Bardet (1974) and quality of the roads network in developing countries is often
Censier (1996) may be a function of population density and mining difficult. However, the quality of a sample of CAR’s roads was
intensity, as the west is significantly more populated and is known to verified by Chirico et al. (2010) during two field missions to CAR in
have more artisanal miners and active mine sites than the east. The 2007. Roads were traversed in 14 sub-prefectures, during which
lower production figures for eastern CAR may also reflect the the conditions and construction materials of the roads were
presence of unofficial channels through which diamonds mined in recorded to verify the road classes derived from Decoudras (1984).
the east exit the country (Matthysen and Clarkson, 2013). Using the roads network, a Road Quality Index (RQI) value was
Institutional capacity is particularly low in eastern CAR, rendering calculated and assigned to each of CAR’s 48 sub-prefectures to
it difficult for the country to guard against illicit smuggling and spatially assess the density and traffickability of primary, secondary,
trading. Diamonds from eastern CAR have been smuggled through and tertiary roads within each sub-prefecture. To develop the RQI,
South Darfur and Chad, and armed bandits and rebels set up the length of each road class within each sub-prefecture was
roadblocks and steal from miners and traders (ICG, 2010). calculated, and each road class was assigned a weighted value to
While it is clear that the two deposits are geologically similar, it account for the differing qualities of the road segments. Primary
is important to note that the physical geographic context of a roads were assigned a weight of 10, secondary roads a weight of 5,
country’s resource deposits often varies sub-nationally, such as and tertiary roads a weight of 1. This weighting scheme was based on
when primary deposits are located in one part of the country and the premise that travel time is five times faster on secondary roads
secondary deposits in another. In CAR, however, the physical than tertiary roads, and is twice as fast on primary roads as
geography of the deposits is similar enough to act as a constant, secondary roads. Using these weighted values, road network density
allowing the authors to isolate previously unconsidered geograph- was then calculated per sub-prefecture to arrive at the final RQI. It is
ic variables that influence lootability—namely, their political also important to note that during the rainy season, which can last up
geography, cultural geography, and spatial location contexts. to six months in CAR, much of the northeast, specifically the sub-
prefectures of Bamingui, Ndele, Birao, and Ouandja-Djalle, are nearly
5. Datasets and methodology impossible to reach by road from the south (Bauters, 2012).
Climatological factors were not accounted for in the road network
A geospatial analysis approach was used to examine the analysis, and therefore the RQI represents the best possible road
multiple geographic contexts within CAR that contribute to conditions within each sub-prefecture.
lootability. While this subject has traditionally been analyzed
through a political ecology lens, a geospatial approach facilitates 5.2. Diamond database
the identification and analysis of patterns at smaller spatial scales.
The ability to examine sub-national patterns has substantially A diamond database compiled by Chirico et al. (2010) is the
improved with recent developments in geographic information most comprehensive available record of diamond occurrences in
K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 253
CAR and was used to show the location of the country’s diamond Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) (Raleigh et al., 2010),
deposits. The occurrences were separated into eastern zone and the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) (Hendrix and
deposits, western zone deposits, and southeastern zone deposits. Salehyan, 2012). However, each of these datasets either excludes
Diamonds located within the Mouka-Ouadda Sandstone were recent events in CAR, in particular many of the rebel group
characterized as being within the eastern zone, while those located activities, or are not specific enough in naming the responsible
within the Carnot Sandstone were characterized as being within group; therefore, a new dataset was compiled by the authors.
the western zone (see Fig. 1). The remaining occurrences, located This new dataset incorporates information from the UCDP,
between the towns of Mobaye and Bangassou on the border with ACLED, and SCAD databases, the International Crisis Group’s
DRC, were characterized as being in the southeastern zone. CrisisWatch Database, and various media sources. Data from the
To measure the proximity of the three diamond deposit zones to CrisisWatch Database and other media sources were not geo-
the capital, a cost distance analysis was performed in a GIS. To graphically-referenced, and were therefore geocoded by the
perform this analysis, each of the sub-prefectures containing authors using the coordinates of the town or village in which
diamond occurrences were identified and their centroids were the event took place. In this database, a conflict is defined as acts of
located. The transportation network was then used to identify the violence, including looting and kidnapping, perpetuated by or
best possible route, based on road quality, from each sub- against non-state actors (such as Seleka, the individual groups of
prefecture centroid to the capital. The lengths of these routes which it is composed, or the LRA) or the Central African military
were measured in the GIS and an average value representing the (FACA), irrespective of whether there were any resulting deaths.
length of the most efficient path from the eastern, western, and The goal of the database was to permit the analysis of the
southeastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures to the capital was distribution of the following types of conflict events: (1) non-state
calculated. actors against civilians, (2) non-state actors against FACA, (3) FACA
against civilians, and (4) military forces from neighboring
5.3. Ethnic group database countries against Central African non-state, civilian, or FACA
actors. Events instigated by local self-defense groups, known as
An ethnic group database was used to examine the spatial anti-Balaka, were not included in the database. The database spans
distribution of ethnic groups in CAR, ethnic diversity within the a time period of 2005 to June 2013. A start year of 2005 was chosen
country, and the cross-border nature of group boundaries. Multiple because several rebel groups formed and became active under
issues are encountered when attempting to identify and define their official names beginning in 2006, prior to which the country
ethnic groups and their distribution, resulting in large part from had seen a period of relative stability. The frequency of conflict
differing definitions of ‘‘ethnic group’’, which can be characterized events per geographic location and per sub-prefecture was
based on shared history, religion, or language. These issues are calculated to highlight areas of significant instability in the
complex in sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries are rich in country.
ethnic diversity and affiliations can be situation-dependent
(Fearon, 2003). The Geographic Representation of Ethnic Groups 5.6. Statistical analyses
(GREG) dataset was used to map these variables for central Africa.
This dataset was digitized by Weidmann et al. (2010) from the Atlas Basic summary statistics were calculated for each indicator
Naradov Mira (Bruk and Apenchenko, 1964), and is a widely used dataset (RQI, number of conflicts, population density, and
ethnic group dataset in which ethnic groups are defined largely by number of ethnic groups), as well as for the number of diamond
language (Fearon, 2003). The more recently developed geocoded occurrences within each sub-prefecture. The sub-prefectures
Ethnic Power Relations (GeoEPR) dataset was not used because it are separated into five categories: All eastern zone sub-
contains significant data gaps in the study region. prefectures, diamondiferous (those containing a diamond
occurrence) eastern zone sub-prefectures, all western zone
5.4. Population dataset sub-prefectures, diamondiferous western zone sub-prefectures,
and southeastern zone sub-prefectures (all southeastern sub-
A population dataset was used to assist in analyzing the cultural prefectures examined in this study are diamondiferous). In
geographic context of the diamond deposits by calculating the addition, a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was
percentage of the population located within the boundaries of each conducted to determine whether the differences between the
ethnic group. The dataset was also used to analyze the spatial average values for each dataset varied significantly between the
location context of the deposits, by calculating the population zones. The ANOVA test was not conducted for the number of
density within each sub-prefecture as a measure of remoteness. ethnic groups variable, as this test does not contribute to our
TM
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScan 2011 global understanding of the relationship between ethnic groups and
population dataset was used to complete these analyses. At 1 km their spatial distribution.
spatial resolution, this dataset represents the finest available
resolution of global ambient population (ORNL, 2011). 6. Results and discussion
5.5. Conflict events database 6.1. The political geographic context: state strength and political
instability
A conflict events database was developed to spatially represent
the political geographic context of CAR’s diamond deposits. CAR The RQI, used as an indicator of state strength, highlights sub-
has experienced a tumultuous post-independence political history. prefectures that lack adequate transportation routes and are
The instability of the Central African government is perhaps most therefore difficult to access by the government. Several patterns
clearly evidenced by the numerous rebel movements that have in road quality were evident (see Fig. 2). First, primary roads are
taken root throughout the country, primarily within the last found only in the west, in six sub-prefectures, and both
decade, including the APRD, UFDR, CPJP, CSK, and LRA. Several secondary and tertiary roads are more numerous in the
geographically-referenced conflict event datasets are available for west than the east. Second, road quality is greatest within the
Africa, including the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Bimbo-Bangui sub-prefecture, the location of the capital, and
Event Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg et al., 2010), the Armed remains relatively high (0.15–0.28) along a corridor extending
254 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
Fig. 2. The results of the Road Quality Index for each sub-prefecture.
northwest from the capital to the borders with Chad and Perhaps most importantly, the spatial distribution of the RQI
Cameroon. Road quality is also relatively high along the south- demonstrates that eastern CAR’s diamond deposits are far less
central and southeastern sub-prefectures, with several pockets accessible by road than the western and southeastern deposits (see
of high RQI values along the border with DRC. In eastern CAR, Table 1). This is evidenced by the average road quality values of
however, road quality drops significantly east and north of the 0.29 in the southeastern sub-prefectures, 0.15 in diamondiferous
sub-prefecture of Bambari (0.25), from Ippy (0.11), to Bria western sub-prefectures, and 0.11 in diamondiferous eastern
(0.14), to Yalinga (0.03). sub-prefectures. In the west, the RQI values of diamondiferous
Table 1
Summary statistics for diamond occurrence, road quality, population density, number of conflicts, and ethnic composition of CAR’s eastern, western, and southeastern sub-
prefectures.
Statistics Number of Road Number Population Number of
diamond quality of conflicts density ethnic groups
2
occurrences index (people per km )
Eastern zone
All sub-prefectures
Average 9 0.11 7.15 5.92 2.10
Minimum 0 0.01 1.00 0.13 1.00
Maximum 120 0.25 29.00 32.70 4.00
Standard deviation 26 0.06 8.13 8.12 0.89
Diamondiferous sub-prefectures
Average 34 0.08 7.2 1.75 2.20
Minimum 1 0.03 1 0.25 1.00
Maximum 120 0.14 13 4.72 3.00
Standard deviation 43.38 0.04 4.21 1.55 0.75
Western zone
All sub-prefectures
Average 6.00 0.16 3.31 24.58 2.60
Minimum 0 0.06 0.00 2.74 1.00
Maximum 59 0.38 19.00 342.47 4.00
Standard deviation 13 0.07 4.78 63.88 0.92
Diamondiferous sub-prefectures
Average 20 0.15 1.00 14.60 2.13
Minimum 1 0.09 0.00 7.40 1.00
Maximum 59 0.22 3.00 24.73 4.00
Standard deviation 18 0.04 1.00 5.54 1.17
Southeastern zone
All sub-prefectures (all are diamondiferous)
Average 3 0.29 0.00 14.85 1.00
Minimum 1 0.25 0.00 11.00 1.00
Maximum 5 0.32 0.00 18.70 1.00
Standard deviation 2 0.03 0.00 3.85 0.00
K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 255
Table 2
Results of the one-way ANOVA testing the significance of road quality, number of conflicts, population density, and proximity to the capital between CAR’s eastern, western,
and southeastern sub-prefectures.
Sub-prefectures compared RQI Number of conflicts Population density Proximity to capital
df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value
Eastern all, western all, 2, 45 8.8 0.0005 2, 45 2.5 0.0919 2, 45 0.8 0.4448 – – –
and southeastern
Eastern diamondiferous, 2, 12 15.1 0.0005 2, 12 8.6 0.0049 2, 12 11.6 0.0016 2, 12 5.5 0.0199
western diamondiferous,
and southeastern
[df, degrees of freedom].
sub-prefectures ranges from 0.09 (Nola) to 0.22 (Mbaki), while in eastern half of CAR (Ndele, Birao, Ouandja-Djalle, Yalinga, Djemah,
the east road quality values range from 0.03 (Yalinga) to 0.14 Rafai, and Obo) (see Fig. 3). Conflict events in the northwest have
(Bria). The results of the ANOVA test for the three diamondifer- largely stemmed from acts of violence committed by the APRD
ous zones (F2,12 = 15.1, p = 0.0005) show that the difference in against civilians, as well as occasional instances of violence between
average RQI between the zones is significant (see Table 2). civilians and nomadic Chadian cattle herders. Meanwhile, conflicts
The strength of the state and its institutions has been identified in the east have mainly been acts of violence committed against
by researchers as the key factor explaining the diverging civilians by the UFDR, CPJP, and Seleka. The area that has
experiences of resource-rich countries (Mehlum et al., 2006a, experienced the most conflict is the sub-prefecture of Birao, which
2006b; Snyder, 2006). The results of the RQI demonstrate that has seen 29 recorded conflict events between 2005 and June 2013.
eastern CAR’s diamond deposits are far less accessible by road than Obo, located in the southeastern-most corner of CAR, has experi-
the western and southeastern deposits. Without an adequate roads enced the second highest number of conflict events, 28, all of which
network in the east, access to these diamond deposits from the were raids on villages by the Ugandan-based LRA.
administrative center is severely limited. Added to this is the fact The authors recognize the potential temporal limitations of
that much of northeastern CAR is inaccessible by road for up to six the conflict events database used in this study, and realize that the
months of the year due to seasonal rains. Therefore, not only are distribution and frequency of conflict events may differ if the
the eastern zone deposits located much farther from the capital, analysis were conducted over a longer time period. However, our
but the ability of the state to access these deposits is further goal is to understand the current vulnerability of CAR’s diamond
hindered by the poor quality of transportation infrastructure deposits and therefore we believe it is reasonable to focus on the
throughout the region. country’s most recent period of prolonged conflict, which began in
The absence of the state in rural CAR has resulted in political 2005.
instability across the country. In general, the conflict events A second result of the conflict analysis is the observation that all
database developed for the current analysis shows that there are of the diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures experienced some
two main regions of conflict in the country: one occupying a group of degree of conflict between 2005 and June 2013, ranging from 1 to
sub-prefectures in the northwest (Bocaranga, Paoua, Markounda, 13 events. Only five out of the eight diamondiferous western
Bossangoa, and Batangafo), and a second occupying much of the sub-prefectures experienced conflicts, ranging from one to three
Fig. 3. The results of the conflict events analysis, showing conflict frequency per location and the total number of conflicts per sub-prefecture.
256 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
events. The results of the ANOVA test show that the difference in presence, as evidenced by the RQI, but they are also located twice
the average number of conflicts between the diamondiferous as far from the capital as the western zone deposits. The distance
eastern, western, and southeastern sub-prefectures is significant between the eastern and southeastern deposits and Bangui
(F2,12 = 8.6, p = 0.0049) (see Table 2). Eastern CAR’s diamond translates into long isolated and unprotected trade routes. Such
deposits are located near more conflict events than the western or trade routes provide rebel forces with ample opportunity for
southeastern zone deposits, increasing the vulnerability of the looting. It is important to note, however, that while the diamond
eastern zone deposits to looting. deposits may be vulnerable to looting, not all diamond shipments
Analysis of the database also shows that while the northwest are equally vulnerable if alternative modes of transport are
and east form the two main conflict regions, conflict events have employed. For example, anecdotal evidence from CAR suggests
occurred throughout the country, with 38 out of the 48 sub- that some diamond buyers chose to use small aircraft to transport
prefectures experiencing at least one conflict event between 2005 diamond shipments to avoid the difficulties associated with
and June 2013. The widespread nature of insecurity in CAR ground travel in the northeast.
suggests a lack of government control across much of the country. The relative remoteness of the eastern zone deposits is also
Rebel groups are best able to survive when the government is evidenced by the population density analysis (see Fig. 4). Average
weak, unable to extend control into rural areas, and lacks the population density in the diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures
2
ability to combat rebel activities (Fearon and Laitin, 2003). Though is 1.75 people per square kilometer (km ), while it is 14.6 people
2
the rebel groups operating in CAR may be relatively small in size, per km in the diamondiferous western sub-prefectures, and 14.85
2
their longevity and the frequency of conflict events throughout the people per km in the diamondiferous southeastern sub-pre-
country attest to the inability of the Central African government to fectures (see Table 1). The difference in population density
control insurgents in the periphery. between these three diamondiferous zones is significant
(F2,12 = 11.6, p = 0.0016) (see Table 2). CAR can be split roughly
6.2. The spatial location context: proximity to the capital, remoteness, in half in terms of population density, with the eastern sub-
2
and proximity to external conflicts prefectures containing 5 or fewer people per km and the western
2
half containing 5.1 or more people per km . Remote deposits are
The geographic location of a resource is an important factor to more easily exploited by rebel groups through the direct targeting
consider when assessing its vulnerability to looting, as resources of isolated trade routes or by levying taxation in kind or cash from
located far from the capital and in remote regions are more difficult isolated production sites (Collier, 2000).
for the government to control and therefore easier to loot. The This study also examined the proximity of CAR’s diamond
distances of the diamondiferous eastern, southeastern, and deposits to external conflicts. When examining the location of CAR
western sub-prefectures from the capital were therefore calculat- within the greater regional political context, it becomes clear that
ed as a measure of the distance of each deposit zone from state CAR borders three conflict-ridden countries: DRC to the south,
control. The diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures are on Sudan to the east, and Chad to the north. The conflicts in Sudan and
average 631 km from the capital, the diamondiferous southeastern Chad have had particularly significant impacts on CAR. Some have
sub-prefectures are on average 595 km from the capital, and the argued that this part of central Africa has experienced a
diamondiferous western sub-prefectures are on average 343 km regionalization of armed conflict, in which the conflicts in Darfur,
from the capital (see Table 3). The results of the ANOVA test show eastern Chad, and northeastern CAR have become interwoven into
that these differences are significant (F2,12 = 5.5, p = 0.0199) (see one large ‘‘system of conflict’’ due to their geographic proximity.
Table 2). Factors including weak states, uncontrolled hinterlands, porous
The analysis shows that the diamondiferous eastern and borders, and trans-border trade and migration have contributed to
southeastern sub-prefectures are nearly twice as far from the the evolution of this environment (Giroux et al., 2009). Both
capital as the diamondiferous western zone sub-prefectures. Sudanese and Chadian rebel and military groups have used
Therefore, not only do the eastern zone sub-prefectures lack state ungoverned northeastern CAR as a rear base (ICG, 2007; Spittaels
and Hilgert, 2009). Furthermore, unemployed Chadian soldiers
have been particularly active in CAR, having been recruited to fight
Table 3
alongside former president Bozize´, and later joined other armed
Results of the cost distance analysis.
groups in the country following his initial seize of power (Debos,
Length of route 2008).
to capital (km)
It is important to examine resources in terms of their proximity
Eastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures to external conflict events in neighboring countries, as these
Ndele 657 conflicts can increase instability within the country due to
Ouadda 845
spillover effects, and in turn increase the susceptibility to looting
Yalinga 821
of nearby deposits. Instability in eastern CAR is not only linked to
Bria 446
internal conflicts, as evidenced by the conflict events database, but
Bakouma 387
Average 631 also to the conflicts occurring in neighboring Chad and Sudan in
Southeastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures
particular. These adjacent conflicts contribute to the vulnerability
Kembe 587
of eastern CAR’s deposits to looting by increasing the number of
Mingala 603
active groups in the region seeking financing.
Average 595
Western diamondiferous sub-prefectures
Baboua 540 6.3. The cultural geographic context
Berberati 415
Nola 426
The location and spread of ethnic groups in CAR was analyzed
Carnot 368
using the GREG dataset. This dataset identifies thirteen major
Boda 228
Mbaki 131 ethnic groups in CAR and shows that the majority of the population
Bouar-Baoro 436
(80%) are Banda. When mapped in relation to the country’s
Yaloke-Bossembele 203
diamond deposits, it becomes clear that almost all of western and
Average 343
southeastern CAR’s diamond deposits fall within Banda territory
K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 257
Fig. 4. The results of the population density analysis per sub-prefecture.
(see Fig. 5). In eastern CAR, the situation is more complex. Though Not surprisingly, it is from this ethnically-unique northeastern
the majority of deposits are found within the territory of the Banda, region that the UFDR, CPJP, and Seleka groups formed. The GREG
diamonds are also found within the territories of the Bagirmi and dataset also displays the trans-border nature of many ethnic
the Sudan Arabs, groups that make up 3.7% and 1.3% of the total groups in the region. For example, the Sudan Arabs extend well
population, respectively. Both groups have experienced inci- into Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan; the Bagirmi into Chad; the
dences of conflict involving rebel groups. The Bagirmi experi- Azande into DRC; and the Pygmies into Cameroon and the
enced seven such conflict events from 2005 to June 2013, while Republic of the Congo. Some groups which are culturally very
the Sudan Arabs experienced 15. Not only are these groups small different from the majority Banda, such as the Sudan Arabs, feel a
in size, but they are also culturally very different from the Banda, greater affinity to neighboring countries than to the government
which has led to feelings of marginalization among members. of CAR (Giroux et al., 2009).
Fig. 5. The location of ethnic groups in CAR.
258 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259
Northeastern CAR has a long history of marginalization. The by the high number of conflict events since 2005 and the poor
groups that inhabit this region are mostly Muslim, as opposed to quality of the transportation infrastructure. Compounding the
the Christian national majority, and speak Arabic, rather than the issue of an absent state is the fact that this region is also home to
national language, Sango. Many inhabitants of the northeast ethnic minority groups who feel marginalized by the ethnic
believe that their region has been purposely underdeveloped majority. Three rebel groups formed in this region, and their
because of these cultural differences (Bauters, 2012). As it is likely members belong to these minority communities. Furthermore, the
that conflicts of ethnic grievance arise within the territory of the ethnic ties between eastern CAR, Chad, and Sudan have fostered
aggrieved group, it is necessary to examine the location of alternate, clandestine trade routes through which diamonds can
resources in relation to the location of minority groups. The exit the country. The proximity of the eastern diamond deposits to
overwhelming majority of the Banda group in CAR is particularly these aggrieved rebel actors in turn increases their vulnerability to
important in light of Collier and Hoeffler’s (2004) finding that looting.
ethnic dominance, defined as a single group comprising 45–90% of The results of this study indicate that a country’s resources
the population, nearly doubles the risk of conflict in a country. The should not be uniformly labeled as lootable or unlootable without
fact that three principle rebel groups originated from this region conducting a sub-national scale analysis of the factors that
therefore is not surprising, and supports the ethnic dominance contribute to lootability. Given the limited resources of govern-
theory. Lujala et al. (2005) similarly found that alluvial diamond ments and development organizations, the ability to locate a
deposits increase the risk of civil war in countries with ethnic country’s most vulnerable deposits can help management priori-
fractionalization. tize funding for development efforts. Once identified, deposits that
Of additional importance is the fact that the trans-border nature are most vulnerable to looting can be targeted with initiatives
of certain ethnic groups, such as the Sudan Arabs, which extend aimed at improving transportation infrastructure, licensing
into Sudan and Chad, has resulted in historically rooted cross- miners, increasing income equality, and reducing social marginali-
border trade networks that have facilitated diamond smuggling. zation. Studies conducted at this scale have the potential to provide
The situation in eastern CAR is further complicated by the fact that more practical, location-specific information on resource vulnera-
members of several rebel groups, including the former UFDR, CPJP, bility to governments and development organizations, thereby
and the currently active Seleka, come from Sudan Arab tribes, and representing an alternative to the more generalized country-scale or
feel a greater affinity for their Chadian and Sudanese neighbors country-comparison assessments that are the norm. Furthermore,
than for the government of CAR (Giroux et al., 2009). These the value of sub-national scale geospatial research is not limited to
transnational kinship ties can enable not only the regionalization diamonds. A similar methodology could be implemented for
of conflict, as has happened in CAR (Buhaug and Gleditsch, 2008), assessing the vulnerability of other lootable resources, such as
but also the growth of a shadow economy, or informal black various types of gemstones, gold, timber, or even wildlife.
market, through which high-value commodities can be smuggled.
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