The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

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The Extractive Industries and Society

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Original article

A sub-national scale geospatial analysis of diamond deposit

lootability: The case of the

1

Katherine C. Malpeli *, Peter G. Chirico

U.S. Geological Survey, MS926A National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192, United States

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: The Central African Republic (CAR), a country with rich diamond deposits and a tumultuous political

Received 2 May 2014

history, experienced a government takeover by the Seleka rebel coalition in 2013. It is within this context

Received in revised form 28 July 2014

that we developed and implemented a geospatial approach for assessing the lootability of high value-to-

Available online 23 August 2014

weight resource deposits, using the case of diamonds in CAR as an example. According to current

definitions of lootability, or the vulnerability of deposits to exploitation, CAR’s two major diamond

Keywords:

deposits are similarly lootable. However, using this geospatial approach, we demonstrate that the

Conflict diamonds

deposits experience differing political geographic, spatial location, and cultural geographic contexts,

Lootability

rendering the eastern deposits more lootable than the western deposits. The patterns identified through

Central African Republic

this detailed analysis highlight the geographic complexities surrounding the issue of conflict resources

and lootability, and speak to the importance of examining these topics at the sub-national scale, rather

than relying on national-scale statistics.

Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1. Introduction In light of recent political events in CAR, it is highly relevant to

examine the country’s diamond deposits within the context of the

Diamonds have been linked to conflicts in several African conflict resources literature. Most literature analyzes this subject

countries in recent decades, including those in Sierra Leone in one of three ways: by comparing the deposits of two different

(Smillie et al., 2000), Angola (Le Billon, 2001), the Democratic countries (Le Billon, 2008), by averaging the experiences of

Republic of the Congo (DRC) (Samset, 2002), Coˆte d’Ivoire (UNSC, multiple countries (Olsson, 2007; Snyder, 2006), or by generalizing

2005), and Liberia (UNSC, 1992). Most recently, the international the characteristics of a single country’s deposits (Richards, 2001).

community has voiced concern that the diamonds in the Central All three methods fall short of identifying the state-level

African Republic (CAR) may be the latest example of a conflict geographic discrepancies of the factors that shape a deposit’s

resource. In December 2012, soldiers from the Seleka rebel group vulnerability to exploitation by rebel groups. Each method

alliance began a steady march toward the capital, . assumes that the physical characteristics of the deposits and the

Originating in CAR’s remote, diamond-rich northeastern region, socio-cultural and political conditions that surround each deposit

Seleka seized 19 towns on its way to the capital. There was a brief are nationally uniform. This study does not seek to determine

respite in violence following the signing of a peace agreement; whether diamonds are the cause of conflict in CAR; rather, it seeks

however, violence resumed in March of 2013, and by the end of the to understand how the vulnerability of a country’s deposits to

month President Franc¸ois Bozize´ had fled the country and Seleka looting may vary spatially. The authors argue that four principal

had taken over Bangui and control of the government. As a result, geographic contexts influence a deposit’s vulnerability to looting,

the Kimberley Process (KP), the international initiative tasked with or vulnerability to exploitation: the physical geographic (referring

stemming the flow of conflict diamonds, suspended CAR from to the geologic characteristics of the deposits), political geographic,

diamond export due to the lack of internal controls over the spatial location, and cultural geographic contexts. Focusing on the

diamond sector in the wake of the Seleka takeover (KPCS, 2013a). issue of conflict diamonds in CAR, this paper (1) uses a geographic

approach to perform a spatially quantitative analysis of the factors

that facilitate the exploitation of diamond deposits by rebel groups,

(2) identifies how these factors distinctly manifest themselves

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 703 648 6047; fax: +1 703 648 6953.

across CAR, and (3) argues for the need to shift away from the

E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K.C. Malpeli),

current approach of assessing lootability at the national scale and [email protected] (P.G. Chirico).

1

Tel.: +1 703 648 6950; fax: +1 703 648 6953. toward assessing it at the sub-national scale. CAR’s diamond

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2014.07.009

2214-790X/Published by Elsevier Ltd.

250 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

deposits serve as the archetypal example of how the physical, (see Fig. 1). CAR is the world’s 12th leading producer of rough

cultural, and political dynamics that influence a deposit’s risk of diamonds in terms of value and diamonds represent 40% of the

being looted can vary within national boundaries. CAR’s two country’s total export revenues, with production fluctuating

principal diamond deposit zones are located more than 600 between 300,000 and 450,000 carats since the late 1960s (KPCS,

kilometers (km) apart, and while geologically similar, they differ in 2013b). While CAR is a relatively minor producer in terms of

terms of the strength of state control, access to and from the volume, the quality of the diamonds is exceptionally high.

capital, proximity to internal and regional armed conflicts, and the Diamond production in CAR has been nearly exclusively

degree of ethnic fragmentation of the local population. The artisanal in nature since independence in 1960, with miners

detailed level of analysis conducted in this study allows for the extracting stones using only rudimentary tools and techniques.

research results to have important policy implications, enabling Artisanal mining is frequently perceived as an attractive livelihood

government and development agencies to better target their option by impoverished populations due to its low entry barriers

limited resources toward a country’s most vulnerable regions. and potential for high earnings. However, it is also associated with

a high degree of uncertainty, as miners lack efficient exploration

techniques and often operate largely by guesswork (Jønsson and

2. Diamonds and conflict in the CAR Fold, 2011). It is estimated that there are approximately 60,000–

90,000 miners operating in CAR (Bermu´ dez-Lugo, 2011; Chirico

Home to 5.1 million people, CAR is one of the world’s least et al., 2010). It is important to note, however, that estimating the

developed countries, ranking 180 out of 187 countries in the 2012 number of artisanal miners in a particular region or country is a

United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development challenging task, due to factors such as the transient nature of

Index (Malik, 2013). The recent government takeover in CAR miners, poor record-keeping by mine managers, and the informal-

follows a turbulent history of political instability, defined by a ity of the sector (Heemskerk, 2001). It is made even more difficult

series of coups and attempted coups and the formation of multiple in countries such as CAR, where political instability and open

armed rebel groups. Prior to the formation of the Seleka rebel conflict are widespread.

group in 2012, three principle groups were operating in CAR: the

Popular Army for the Restoration of the Republic and Democracy

(APRD), the Union of the Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR), and 3. Natural resources and armed conflict

the Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP) (Bauters,

2012; Spittaels and Hilgert, 2009). In September 2012, the UFDR, 3.1. Conflict resources

CPJP, and a third group, the Wa Kodro Salute Patriotic Convention

(CPSK), aligned to form the Seleka rebel group (ICG, 2013). The relationship between natural resources and armed conflict

Members of the Ugandan-based Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have has been the topic of considerable study and debate since the early

also been operating in CAR since 2008, primarily in the southeast 1990s. Le Billon (2008) outlines the three prominent theoretical

(Bauters, 2012). arguments that have been put forth to explain the connections

Complicating this unstable political situation is the fact that between resources and wars: the resource conflict, resource curse,

CAR is home to extensive alluvial diamond deposits. The deposits and conflict resource theories. The resource conflict argument

are principally located in the southwest (hereafter referred to as focuses on the existence of a causal link between resource scarcity

the western zone deposits) and northeast (hereafter referred to as and specific types of conflicts, such as those over resource access.

the eastern zone deposits), and in a smaller zone in the southeast These conflicts are typically diffuse, persistent, and sub-national in

Fig. 1. The location of CAR’s diamond deposits and the Carnot and Mouka- Sandstone formations.

K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 251

nature, and are usually the result of an unequal distribution of limited in its ability to differentiate between the several possible

resources, issues of resource control, and the failures of institutions causes of resources generating conflict and concludes that such

to adequately manage them (Homer-Dixon, 1994; Turner, 2004). conflict dynamics must be examined instead at the substate level.

The resource curse theory, meanwhile, is rooted in the idea that Buhaug and Lujala (2005) and Lujala et al. (2005) similarly argue

resource dependence negatively affects a country’s economic that most empirical studies on civil war rely on national-scale data

performance, and can increase the risk of conflict. Finally, the and thus fail to examine sub-national variations in the factors that

conflict resource theory, which is the focus of this study, is defined promote conflict.

as resources ‘‘whose control, exploitation, trade, taxation, or Studies that adhere to the methodologies outlined above lack

protection contributes to, or benefits from the context of, armed an in-depth examination of the physical, political, and social

conflict’’ (Le Billon, 2008:349). This theory is based on the idea that characteristics surrounding a country’s deposits, which can enable

high value resources can sustain and motivate war due to the the identification of local spatial patterns in factors that increase

financial opportunities they afford (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004; Le vulnerability to resource-related conflicts. As the case of CAR

Billon, 2008). demonstrates, the presence and strength of these factors can vary

Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2004) were among the earliest geographically between deposits.

researchers to suggest a significant link between resource

abundance and the risk of civil war onset. While many studies 3.2. The lootability of conflict resources

support the resource curse and conflict resource theories,

numerous studies challenge or refute them. For example, Previous case studies have established that some resources

Humphreys (2005) finds that the presence of natural resources appear to have stronger links to conflict than others and that

shortens civil wars. Further, some studies conclude that primary resource abundant countries have had different experiences with

resources increase the risk of conflict (Fearon, 2005), while others respect to conflict (Auty, 2004; Le Billon, 2008; Lujala et al., 2005;

argue that secondary resources are more lootable and therefore Samset, 2002; Silberfein, 2004). The existence of these inconsis-

can extend the duration of a conflict (Ross, 2004). Several studies tencies demonstrates that resource endowment alone is not a

have demonstrated that adjusting the empirical models used by sufficient explanation for the involvement of resources in conflicts.

Collier and Hoeffler leads to results that do not suggest a strong link Rather, a resource’s lootability should be explored, as this influences

between resources and conflict (Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2002; the ease with which a resource can be exploited (Le Billon, 2001).

Fearon and Laitin, 2003; Fearon, 2005). Alluvial diamonds are the Lootable resources are those that can be extracted by unskilled

secondary resource most commonly represented by the conflict workers and are easily transportable (Ross, 2003). Resources can

resources argument, and are the focus of this study. A study by be characterized as lootable or unlootable based on their relative

Lujala et al. (2005) was the first to concentrate on the specific role geographic location, concentration, and mode of exploitation (Le

of diamonds in conflicts. The authors found that the effect of Billon, 2001, 2004), as well as their value-to-weight ratio (Auty,

diamonds on the incidence of civil war depends on two principle 2004; Gilmore et al., 2005). Geographic location is measured by

factors: the level of existing ethnic fractionalization and the proximity from the country’s capital, with lootability increasing

geologic nature of the deposits. Secondary diamond deposits were with increasing distance from the capital. In terms of concentra-

found to be positively related to the occurrence of civil war, in tion, resources are defined as being point source or diffuse, with

particular in countries with ethnic fractionalization. point source resources being those that are concentrated within a

To test the resource curse, resource conflict, and conflict specific geographic area and diffuse resources being those that are

resource theories, many researchers have compared the experi- spread over large areas (Le Billon, 2001). Diffuse resources are

ences of two or more countries, or have broadly examined a single typically characterized as being more lootable, due to the

country’s experience. Such studies tend to generalize the physical difficulties associated with controlling vast territorial areas.

characteristics of a country’s deposits as well as conditions of social Examples of diffuse materials include alluvial minerals, timber,

and political stability, thus preventing the identification of local and agricultural products, whereas examples of point-source

distinctions within countries concerning these characteristics and resources include primary mineral deposits and oil reserves. The

limiting any ability to discern whether particular deposits are more techniques required to exploit a resource are determined by its

vulnerable to exploitation than others. Many studies also make physical characteristics. In the case of diamonds, resource

comparisons between countries that differ substantially in terms concentration and mode of exploitation are mainly determined

of the type, value, and physical nature of their resources, as well as based on whether the deposits are primary or alluvial in nature (Le

in terms of their political and cultural contexts. For example, Le Billon, 2001, 2008). Primary deposits are those that have remained

Billon (2008) compares the experiences of diamond-rich Botswana within their original source rock and require mechanized

and Sierra Leone. Yet these two countries differ in terms of the exploitation techniques, while alluvial deposits are those which

geologic nature and economic value of the deposits, the amount of have been eroded and transported downstream from their source

diamond-generated revenues reinvested by the state into public rocks by river systems, eventually concentrating in shallow

services, and the degree of mechanized extraction. These deposits throughout a river system (Marshall and Baxter-Brown,

substantial differences render it difficult to distinguish the key 1995). Alluvial deposits can often be exploited using simple tools.

factor(s) that influenced the presence (in the case of Sierra Leone) Finally, resources with a high value-to-weight ratio, such as

or absence (in the case of Botswana) of resource-related conflicts. diamonds, are deemed to be lootable due to the high rents they

Other studies, such as Olsson (2007) and Snyder (2006), examine afford and their ease of transport (Auty, 2004). In addition to the

resource endowment and history of conflict in multiple countries, spatial location and physical characteristics of resource deposits,

and average the results to make general conclusions. A final this study also examines the political geographic and cultural

common form of analysis involves examining the theories at the geographic contexts of CAR’s diamond deposits, arguing that these

country level. Though this method avoids the issues associated variables also influence a deposit’s vulnerability to looting.

with comparative studies, country-scale analyses are often not

detailed enough to clearly delineate causal mechanisms, as 4. The physical geographic context of CAR’s diamond deposits

national-scale statistics do not necessarily reflect local realities

(Le Billon, 2007). Sorens (2011) notes in his study on mineral CAR’s eastern, southeastern, and western diamond deposits are

production and ethnic rebellion that country level analysis is similarly lootable according to the current definition of lootability.

252 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

They are alluvial in nature, spread over vast areas, mined systems (GIS) (Buhaug and Lujala, 2005; Lohman and Flint, 2010).

exclusively artisanally, and have a high value-to-weight ratio. Multiple sub-national scale GIS datasets were used in this study to

These similarities are a result of their shared geologic history. assess the degree to which the political geographic, spatial location,

While no primary source of diamonds has been discovered in CAR, and cultural geographic contexts vary throughout CAR. Analysis of

the Carnot and Mouka-Ouadda Sandstone formations, located in these datasets was conducted at the level of the second-

western and eastern CAR, respectively, are thought to be secondary administrative unit, known in CAR as sous-prefets or sub-prefectures.

source rocks for the diamonds (see Fig. 1). The deposits in The sub-prefectures were then divided into ‘‘eastern sub-prefec-

southeastern CAR are also thought to be related to the sandstone tures’’ and ‘‘western sub-prefectures’’ based on the 218 E line of

formations, which have since eroded from this area. Only remnants longitude. Those sub-prefectures that straddle the longitudinal

of the former plateau remain in the southeast (Censier, 1996; boundary were allocated as eastern or western based on whether the

Chirico et al., 2010). The diamonds found within these plateaus majority of the sub-prefecture fell east or west of the line. Finally, the

originally eroded from their primary source and were deposited ‘‘southeastern sub-prefectures’’ constitue three diamondiferous

within two alluvial fan sequences in CAR. These alluvial fans were sub-prefectures located near the southern border with DRC.

subsequently re-consolidated over a period of geologic time and

subjected to tectonic and erosional forces. The diamond deposits 5.1. Transportation network

are now being re-eroded from the plateaus and reconcentrated

within Quaternary floodplains and Tertiary terraces, from which A transportation network dataset was used as an indicator of

they are mined (Chirico et al., 2010). the political geographic and spatial location contexts of CAR’s

CAR’s diamond deposits are generally of high quality, with diamond deposits. A country’s transportation network has been

approximately 40% of stones being of gem quality (Bardet, 1974). cited as the best available indicator of horizontal state integration

The diamonds located within the Carnot and Mouka-Ouadda within a country’s hinterland, as roads represent the level of access

Sandstone formations represent CAR’s two significant diamond of the state’s institutions throughout the country (Buhaug and Rød,

deposit zones. One distinguishing factor between these two 2006; Herbst, 2000; Raleigh, 2008). Furthermore, the quality of a

deposits is the fact that in the east, 85–90% of the stones are of region’s transportation infrastructure often mimics its degree of

high to medium quality (Bardet, 1974; WGDE, 2012). These stones political, economic, and social development (Buhaug and Rød,

are also often larger than those found in western CAR, with stones 2006; Fearon and Laitin, 2003). Therefore, the roads dataset is used

of 10 carats or greater frequently recovered. While the average in this study as an indicator of both state strength and remoteness.

price per carat in CAR is $169.79 (in 2012), the value of stones in Roads data were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey

eastern CAR ranges from $200 to more than $300 per carat (WGDE, (USGS) Global GIS dataset (Hare et al., 2003), and additional

2012). Some discrepancy exists concerning the quantity of processing was done to further attribute the dataset by road type,

diamonds located within each zone. Production figures suggest based on the classification of roads in CAR by Decoudras (1984).

that 65–75% of diamond production comes from western CAR, with Three types of road classes were used: primary, secondary, and

eastern CAR contributing 25–35% (Bardet, 1974; Censier, 1996). tertiary. For the purposes of this analysis, a primary road is a major

However, Chirico et al. (2010) calculate that the two plateaus are paved road, a secondary road is a major unpaved road, and a

similarly endowed with diamonds. This result suggests that the tertiary road is a trail or dirt track. Obtaining information on the

higher western zone production figures noted by Bardet (1974) and quality of the roads network in developing countries is often

Censier (1996) may be a function of population density and mining difficult. However, the quality of a sample of CAR’s roads was

intensity, as the west is significantly more populated and is known to verified by Chirico et al. (2010) during two field missions to CAR in

have more artisanal miners and active mine sites than the east. The 2007. Roads were traversed in 14 sub-prefectures, during which

lower production figures for eastern CAR may also reflect the the conditions and construction materials of the roads were

presence of unofficial channels through which diamonds mined in recorded to verify the road classes derived from Decoudras (1984).

the east exit the country (Matthysen and Clarkson, 2013). Using the roads network, a Road Quality Index (RQI) value was

Institutional capacity is particularly low in eastern CAR, rendering calculated and assigned to each of CAR’s 48 sub-prefectures to

it difficult for the country to guard against illicit smuggling and spatially assess the density and traffickability of primary, secondary,

trading. Diamonds from eastern CAR have been smuggled through and tertiary roads within each sub-prefecture. To develop the RQI,

South Darfur and Chad, and armed bandits and rebels set up the length of each road class within each sub-prefecture was

roadblocks and steal from miners and traders (ICG, 2010). calculated, and each road class was assigned a weighted value to

While it is clear that the two deposits are geologically similar, it account for the differing qualities of the road segments. Primary

is important to note that the physical geographic context of a roads were assigned a weight of 10, secondary roads a weight of 5,

country’s resource deposits often varies sub-nationally, such as and tertiary roads a weight of 1. This weighting scheme was based on

when primary deposits are located in one part of the country and the premise that travel time is five times faster on secondary roads

secondary deposits in another. In CAR, however, the physical than tertiary roads, and is twice as fast on primary roads as

geography of the deposits is similar enough to act as a constant, secondary roads. Using these weighted values, road network density

allowing the authors to isolate previously unconsidered geograph- was then calculated per sub-prefecture to arrive at the final RQI. It is

ic variables that influence lootability—namely, their political also important to note that during the rainy season, which can last up

geography, cultural geography, and spatial location contexts. to six months in CAR, much of the northeast, specifically the sub-

prefectures of , Ndele, , and Ouandja-Djalle, are nearly

5. Datasets and methodology impossible to reach by road from the south (Bauters, 2012).

Climatological factors were not accounted for in the road network

A geospatial analysis approach was used to examine the analysis, and therefore the RQI represents the best possible road

multiple geographic contexts within CAR that contribute to conditions within each sub-prefecture.

lootability. While this subject has traditionally been analyzed

through a political ecology lens, a geospatial approach facilitates 5.2. Diamond database

the identification and analysis of patterns at smaller spatial scales.

The ability to examine sub-national patterns has substantially A diamond database compiled by Chirico et al. (2010) is the

improved with recent developments in geographic information most comprehensive available record of diamond occurrences in

K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 253

CAR and was used to show the location of the country’s diamond Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) (Raleigh et al., 2010),

deposits. The occurrences were separated into eastern zone and the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) (Hendrix and

deposits, western zone deposits, and southeastern zone deposits. Salehyan, 2012). However, each of these datasets either excludes

Diamonds located within the Mouka-Ouadda Sandstone were recent events in CAR, in particular many of the rebel group

characterized as being within the eastern zone, while those located activities, or are not specific enough in naming the responsible

within the Carnot Sandstone were characterized as being within group; therefore, a new dataset was compiled by the authors.

the western zone (see Fig. 1). The remaining occurrences, located This new dataset incorporates information from the UCDP,

between the towns of and on the border with ACLED, and SCAD databases, the International Crisis Group’s

DRC, were characterized as being in the southeastern zone. CrisisWatch Database, and various media sources. Data from the

To measure the proximity of the three diamond deposit zones to CrisisWatch Database and other media sources were not geo-

the capital, a cost distance analysis was performed in a GIS. To graphically-referenced, and were therefore geocoded by the

perform this analysis, each of the sub-prefectures containing authors using the coordinates of the town or village in which

diamond occurrences were identified and their centroids were the event took place. In this database, a conflict is defined as acts of

located. The transportation network was then used to identify the violence, including looting and kidnapping, perpetuated by or

best possible route, based on road quality, from each sub- against non-state actors (such as Seleka, the individual groups of

prefecture centroid to the capital. The lengths of these routes which it is composed, or the LRA) or the Central African military

were measured in the GIS and an average value representing the (FACA), irrespective of whether there were any resulting deaths.

length of the most efficient path from the eastern, western, and The goal of the database was to permit the analysis of the

southeastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures to the capital was distribution of the following types of conflict events: (1) non-state

calculated. actors against civilians, (2) non-state actors against FACA, (3) FACA

against civilians, and (4) military forces from neighboring

5.3. Ethnic group database countries against Central African non-state, civilian, or FACA

actors. Events instigated by local self-defense groups, known as

An ethnic group database was used to examine the spatial anti-Balaka, were not included in the database. The database spans

distribution of ethnic groups in CAR, ethnic diversity within the a time period of 2005 to June 2013. A start year of 2005 was chosen

country, and the cross-border nature of group boundaries. Multiple because several rebel groups formed and became active under

issues are encountered when attempting to identify and define their official names beginning in 2006, prior to which the country

ethnic groups and their distribution, resulting in large part from had seen a period of relative stability. The frequency of conflict

differing definitions of ‘‘ethnic group’’, which can be characterized events per geographic location and per sub-prefecture was

based on shared history, religion, or language. These issues are calculated to highlight areas of significant instability in the

complex in sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries are rich in country.

ethnic diversity and affiliations can be situation-dependent

(Fearon, 2003). The Geographic Representation of Ethnic Groups 5.6. Statistical analyses

(GREG) dataset was used to map these variables for central Africa.

This dataset was digitized by Weidmann et al. (2010) from the Atlas Basic summary statistics were calculated for each indicator

Naradov Mira (Bruk and Apenchenko, 1964), and is a widely used dataset (RQI, number of conflicts, population density, and

ethnic group dataset in which ethnic groups are defined largely by number of ethnic groups), as well as for the number of diamond

language (Fearon, 2003). The more recently developed geocoded occurrences within each sub-prefecture. The sub-prefectures

Ethnic Power Relations (GeoEPR) dataset was not used because it are separated into five categories: All eastern zone sub-

contains significant data gaps in the study region. prefectures, diamondiferous (those containing a diamond

occurrence) eastern zone sub-prefectures, all western zone

5.4. Population dataset sub-prefectures, diamondiferous western zone sub-prefectures,

and southeastern zone sub-prefectures (all southeastern sub-

A population dataset was used to assist in analyzing the cultural prefectures examined in this study are diamondiferous). In

geographic context of the diamond deposits by calculating the addition, a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was

percentage of the population located within the boundaries of each conducted to determine whether the differences between the

ethnic group. The dataset was also used to analyze the spatial average values for each dataset varied significantly between the

location context of the deposits, by calculating the population zones. The ANOVA test was not conducted for the number of

density within each sub-prefecture as a measure of remoteness. ethnic groups variable, as this test does not contribute to our

TM

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScan 2011 global understanding of the relationship between ethnic groups and

population dataset was used to complete these analyses. At 1 km their spatial distribution.

spatial resolution, this dataset represents the finest available

resolution of global ambient population (ORNL, 2011). 6. Results and discussion

5.5. Conflict events database 6.1. The political geographic context: state strength and political

instability

A conflict events database was developed to spatially represent

the political geographic context of CAR’s diamond deposits. CAR The RQI, used as an indicator of state strength, highlights sub-

has experienced a tumultuous post-independence political history. prefectures that lack adequate transportation routes and are

The instability of the Central African government is perhaps most therefore difficult to access by the government. Several patterns

clearly evidenced by the numerous rebel movements that have in road quality were evident (see Fig. 2). First, primary roads are

taken root throughout the country, primarily within the last found only in the west, in six sub-prefectures, and both

decade, including the APRD, UFDR, CPJP, CSK, and LRA. Several secondary and tertiary roads are more numerous in the

geographically-referenced conflict event datasets are available for west than the east. Second, road quality is greatest within the

Africa, including the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Bimbo-Bangui sub-prefecture, the location of the capital, and

Event Dataset (UCDP GED) (Sundberg et al., 2010), the Armed remains relatively high (0.15–0.28) along a corridor extending

254 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

Fig. 2. The results of the Road Quality Index for each sub-prefecture.

northwest from the capital to the borders with Chad and Perhaps most importantly, the spatial distribution of the RQI

Cameroon. Road quality is also relatively high along the south- demonstrates that eastern CAR’s diamond deposits are far less

central and southeastern sub-prefectures, with several pockets accessible by road than the western and southeastern deposits (see

of high RQI values along the border with DRC. In eastern CAR, Table 1). This is evidenced by the average road quality values of

however, road quality drops significantly east and north of the 0.29 in the southeastern sub-prefectures, 0.15 in diamondiferous

sub-prefecture of (0.25), from (0.11), to Bria western sub-prefectures, and 0.11 in diamondiferous eastern

(0.14), to (0.03). sub-prefectures. In the west, the RQI values of diamondiferous

Table 1

Summary statistics for diamond occurrence, road quality, population density, number of conflicts, and ethnic composition of CAR’s eastern, western, and southeastern sub-

prefectures.

Statistics Number of Road Number Population Number of

diamond quality of conflicts density ethnic groups

2

occurrences index (people per km )

Eastern zone

All sub-prefectures

Average 9 0.11 7.15 5.92 2.10

Minimum 0 0.01 1.00 0.13 1.00

Maximum 120 0.25 29.00 32.70 4.00

Standard deviation 26 0.06 8.13 8.12 0.89

Diamondiferous sub-prefectures

Average 34 0.08 7.2 1.75 2.20

Minimum 1 0.03 1 0.25 1.00

Maximum 120 0.14 13 4.72 3.00

Standard deviation 43.38 0.04 4.21 1.55 0.75

Western zone

All sub-prefectures

Average 6.00 0.16 3.31 24.58 2.60

Minimum 0 0.06 0.00 2.74 1.00

Maximum 59 0.38 19.00 342.47 4.00

Standard deviation 13 0.07 4.78 63.88 0.92

Diamondiferous sub-prefectures

Average 20 0.15 1.00 14.60 2.13

Minimum 1 0.09 0.00 7.40 1.00

Maximum 59 0.22 3.00 24.73 4.00

Standard deviation 18 0.04 1.00 5.54 1.17

Southeastern zone

All sub-prefectures (all are diamondiferous)

Average 3 0.29 0.00 14.85 1.00

Minimum 1 0.25 0.00 11.00 1.00

Maximum 5 0.32 0.00 18.70 1.00

Standard deviation 2 0.03 0.00 3.85 0.00

K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 255

Table 2

Results of the one-way ANOVA testing the significance of road quality, number of conflicts, population density, and proximity to the capital between CAR’s eastern, western,

and southeastern sub-prefectures.

Sub-prefectures compared RQI Number of conflicts Population density Proximity to capital

df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value df F-ratio P-value

Eastern all, western all, 2, 45 8.8 0.0005 2, 45 2.5 0.0919 2, 45 0.8 0.4448 – – –

and southeastern

Eastern diamondiferous, 2, 12 15.1 0.0005 2, 12 8.6 0.0049 2, 12 11.6 0.0016 2, 12 5.5 0.0199

western diamondiferous,

and southeastern

[df, degrees of freedom].

sub-prefectures ranges from 0.09 (Nola) to 0.22 (Mbaki), while in eastern half of CAR (Ndele, Birao, Ouandja-Djalle, Yalinga, ,

the east road quality values range from 0.03 (Yalinga) to 0.14 Rafai, and ) (see Fig. 3). Conflict events in the northwest have

(Bria). The results of the ANOVA test for the three diamondifer- largely stemmed from acts of violence committed by the APRD

ous zones (F2,12 = 15.1, p = 0.0005) show that the difference in against civilians, as well as occasional instances of violence between

average RQI between the zones is significant (see Table 2). civilians and nomadic Chadian cattle herders. Meanwhile, conflicts

The strength of the state and its institutions has been identified in the east have mainly been acts of violence committed against

by researchers as the key factor explaining the diverging civilians by the UFDR, CPJP, and Seleka. The area that has

experiences of resource-rich countries (Mehlum et al., 2006a, experienced the most conflict is the sub-prefecture of Birao, which

2006b; Snyder, 2006). The results of the RQI demonstrate that has seen 29 recorded conflict events between 2005 and June 2013.

eastern CAR’s diamond deposits are far less accessible by road than Obo, located in the southeastern-most corner of CAR, has experi-

the western and southeastern deposits. Without an adequate roads enced the second highest number of conflict events, 28, all of which

network in the east, access to these diamond deposits from the were raids on villages by the Ugandan-based LRA.

administrative center is severely limited. Added to this is the fact The authors recognize the potential temporal limitations of

that much of northeastern CAR is inaccessible by road for up to six the conflict events database used in this study, and realize that the

months of the year due to seasonal rains. Therefore, not only are distribution and frequency of conflict events may differ if the

the eastern zone deposits located much farther from the capital, analysis were conducted over a longer time period. However, our

but the ability of the state to access these deposits is further goal is to understand the current vulnerability of CAR’s diamond

hindered by the poor quality of transportation infrastructure deposits and therefore we believe it is reasonable to focus on the

throughout the region. country’s most recent period of prolonged conflict, which began in

The absence of the state in rural CAR has resulted in political 2005.

instability across the country. In general, the conflict events A second result of the conflict analysis is the observation that all

database developed for the current analysis shows that there are of the diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures experienced some

two main regions of conflict in the country: one occupying a group of degree of conflict between 2005 and June 2013, ranging from 1 to

sub-prefectures in the northwest (, , , 13 events. Only five out of the eight diamondiferous western

Bossangoa, and ), and a second occupying much of the sub-prefectures experienced conflicts, ranging from one to three

Fig. 3. The results of the conflict events analysis, showing conflict frequency per location and the total number of conflicts per sub-prefecture.

256 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

events. The results of the ANOVA test show that the difference in presence, as evidenced by the RQI, but they are also located twice

the average number of conflicts between the diamondiferous as far from the capital as the western zone deposits. The distance

eastern, western, and southeastern sub-prefectures is significant between the eastern and southeastern deposits and Bangui

(F2,12 = 8.6, p = 0.0049) (see Table 2). Eastern CAR’s diamond translates into long isolated and unprotected trade routes. Such

deposits are located near more conflict events than the western or trade routes provide rebel forces with ample opportunity for

southeastern zone deposits, increasing the vulnerability of the looting. It is important to note, however, that while the diamond

eastern zone deposits to looting. deposits may be vulnerable to looting, not all diamond shipments

Analysis of the database also shows that while the northwest are equally vulnerable if alternative modes of transport are

and east form the two main conflict regions, conflict events have employed. For example, anecdotal evidence from CAR suggests

occurred throughout the country, with 38 out of the 48 sub- that some diamond buyers chose to use small aircraft to transport

prefectures experiencing at least one conflict event between 2005 diamond shipments to avoid the difficulties associated with

and June 2013. The widespread nature of insecurity in CAR ground travel in the northeast.

suggests a lack of government control across much of the country. The relative remoteness of the eastern zone deposits is also

Rebel groups are best able to survive when the government is evidenced by the population density analysis (see Fig. 4). Average

weak, unable to extend control into rural areas, and lacks the population density in the diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures

2

ability to combat rebel activities (Fearon and Laitin, 2003). Though is 1.75 people per square kilometer (km ), while it is 14.6 people

2

the rebel groups operating in CAR may be relatively small in size, per km in the diamondiferous western sub-prefectures, and 14.85

2

their longevity and the frequency of conflict events throughout the people per km in the diamondiferous southeastern sub-pre-

country attest to the inability of the Central African government to fectures (see Table 1). The difference in population density

control insurgents in the periphery. between these three diamondiferous zones is significant

(F2,12 = 11.6, p = 0.0016) (see Table 2). CAR can be split roughly

6.2. The spatial location context: proximity to the capital, remoteness, in half in terms of population density, with the eastern sub-

2

and proximity to external conflicts prefectures containing 5 or fewer people per km and the western

2

half containing 5.1 or more people per km . Remote deposits are

The geographic location of a resource is an important factor to more easily exploited by rebel groups through the direct targeting

consider when assessing its vulnerability to looting, as resources of isolated trade routes or by levying taxation in kind or cash from

located far from the capital and in remote regions are more difficult isolated production sites (Collier, 2000).

for the government to control and therefore easier to loot. The This study also examined the proximity of CAR’s diamond

distances of the diamondiferous eastern, southeastern, and deposits to external conflicts. When examining the location of CAR

western sub-prefectures from the capital were therefore calculat- within the greater regional political context, it becomes clear that

ed as a measure of the distance of each deposit zone from state CAR borders three conflict-ridden countries: DRC to the south,

control. The diamondiferous eastern sub-prefectures are on Sudan to the east, and Chad to the north. The conflicts in Sudan and

average 631 km from the capital, the diamondiferous southeastern Chad have had particularly significant impacts on CAR. Some have

sub-prefectures are on average 595 km from the capital, and the argued that this part of central Africa has experienced a

diamondiferous western sub-prefectures are on average 343 km regionalization of armed conflict, in which the conflicts in Darfur,

from the capital (see Table 3). The results of the ANOVA test show eastern Chad, and northeastern CAR have become interwoven into

that these differences are significant (F2,12 = 5.5, p = 0.0199) (see one large ‘‘system of conflict’’ due to their geographic proximity.

Table 2). Factors including weak states, uncontrolled hinterlands, porous

The analysis shows that the diamondiferous eastern and borders, and trans-border trade and migration have contributed to

southeastern sub-prefectures are nearly twice as far from the the evolution of this environment (Giroux et al., 2009). Both

capital as the diamondiferous western zone sub-prefectures. Sudanese and Chadian rebel and military groups have used

Therefore, not only do the eastern zone sub-prefectures lack state ungoverned northeastern CAR as a rear base (ICG, 2007; Spittaels

and Hilgert, 2009). Furthermore, unemployed Chadian soldiers

have been particularly active in CAR, having been recruited to fight

Table 3

alongside former president Bozize´, and later joined other armed

Results of the cost distance analysis.

groups in the country following his initial seize of power (Debos,

Length of route 2008).

to capital (km)

It is important to examine resources in terms of their proximity

Eastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures to external conflict events in neighboring countries, as these

Ndele 657 conflicts can increase instability within the country due to

Ouadda 845

spillover effects, and in turn increase the susceptibility to looting

Yalinga 821

of nearby deposits. Instability in eastern CAR is not only linked to

Bria 446

internal conflicts, as evidenced by the conflict events database, but

Bakouma 387

Average 631 also to the conflicts occurring in neighboring Chad and Sudan in

Southeastern diamondiferous sub-prefectures

particular. These adjacent conflicts contribute to the vulnerability

Kembe 587

of eastern CAR’s deposits to looting by increasing the number of

Mingala 603

active groups in the region seeking financing.

Average 595

Western diamondiferous sub-prefectures

Baboua 540 6.3. The cultural geographic context

Berberati 415

Nola 426

The location and spread of ethnic groups in CAR was analyzed

Carnot 368

using the GREG dataset. This dataset identifies thirteen major

Boda 228

Mbaki 131 ethnic groups in CAR and shows that the majority of the population

Bouar- 436

(80%) are Banda. When mapped in relation to the country’s

Yaloke-Bossembele 203

diamond deposits, it becomes clear that almost all of western and

Average 343

southeastern CAR’s diamond deposits fall within Banda territory

K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259 257

Fig. 4. The results of the population density analysis per sub-prefecture.

(see Fig. 5). In eastern CAR, the situation is more complex. Though Not surprisingly, it is from this ethnically-unique northeastern

the majority of deposits are found within the territory of the Banda, region that the UFDR, CPJP, and Seleka groups formed. The GREG

diamonds are also found within the territories of the Bagirmi and dataset also displays the trans-border nature of many ethnic

the Sudan Arabs, groups that make up 3.7% and 1.3% of the total groups in the region. For example, the Sudan Arabs extend well

population, respectively. Both groups have experienced inci- into Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan; the Bagirmi into Chad; the

dences of conflict involving rebel groups. The Bagirmi experi- Azande into DRC; and the Pygmies into Cameroon and the

enced seven such conflict events from 2005 to June 2013, while Republic of the Congo. Some groups which are culturally very

the Sudan Arabs experienced 15. Not only are these groups small different from the majority Banda, such as the Sudan Arabs, feel a

in size, but they are also culturally very different from the Banda, greater affinity to neighboring countries than to the government

which has led to feelings of marginalization among members. of CAR (Giroux et al., 2009).

Fig. 5. The location of ethnic groups in CAR.

258 K.C. Malpeli, P.G. Chirico / The Extractive Industries and Society 1 (2014) 249–259

Northeastern CAR has a long history of marginalization. The by the high number of conflict events since 2005 and the poor

groups that inhabit this region are mostly Muslim, as opposed to quality of the transportation infrastructure. Compounding the

the Christian national majority, and speak Arabic, rather than the issue of an absent state is the fact that this region is also home to

national language, Sango. Many inhabitants of the northeast ethnic minority groups who feel marginalized by the ethnic

believe that their region has been purposely underdeveloped majority. Three rebel groups formed in this region, and their

because of these cultural differences (Bauters, 2012). As it is likely members belong to these minority communities. Furthermore, the

that conflicts of ethnic grievance arise within the territory of the ethnic ties between eastern CAR, Chad, and Sudan have fostered

aggrieved group, it is necessary to examine the location of alternate, clandestine trade routes through which diamonds can

resources in relation to the location of minority groups. The exit the country. The proximity of the eastern diamond deposits to

overwhelming majority of the Banda group in CAR is particularly these aggrieved rebel actors in turn increases their vulnerability to

important in light of Collier and Hoeffler’s (2004) finding that looting.

ethnic dominance, defined as a single group comprising 45–90% of The results of this study indicate that a country’s resources

the population, nearly doubles the risk of conflict in a country. The should not be uniformly labeled as lootable or unlootable without

fact that three principle rebel groups originated from this region conducting a sub-national scale analysis of the factors that

therefore is not surprising, and supports the ethnic dominance contribute to lootability. Given the limited resources of govern-

theory. Lujala et al. (2005) similarly found that alluvial diamond ments and development organizations, the ability to locate a

deposits increase the risk of civil war in countries with ethnic country’s most vulnerable deposits can help management priori-

fractionalization. tize funding for development efforts. Once identified, deposits that

Of additional importance is the fact that the trans-border nature are most vulnerable to looting can be targeted with initiatives

of certain ethnic groups, such as the Sudan Arabs, which extend aimed at improving transportation infrastructure, licensing

into Sudan and Chad, has resulted in historically rooted cross- miners, increasing income equality, and reducing social marginali-

border trade networks that have facilitated diamond smuggling. zation. Studies conducted at this scale have the potential to provide

The situation in eastern CAR is further complicated by the fact that more practical, location-specific information on resource vulnera-

members of several rebel groups, including the former UFDR, CPJP, bility to governments and development organizations, thereby

and the currently active Seleka, come from Sudan Arab tribes, and representing an alternative to the more generalized country-scale or

feel a greater affinity for their Chadian and Sudanese neighbors country-comparison assessments that are the norm. Furthermore,

than for the government of CAR (Giroux et al., 2009). These the value of sub-national scale geospatial research is not limited to

transnational kinship ties can enable not only the regionalization diamonds. A similar methodology could be implemented for

of conflict, as has happened in CAR (Buhaug and Gleditsch, 2008), assessing the vulnerability of other lootable resources, such as

but also the growth of a shadow economy, or informal black various types of gemstones, gold, timber, or even wildlife.

market, through which high-value commodities can be smuggled.

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