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How Is the Sovereign Debt Crisis Affecting Greece's Relations With How is the sovereign debt crisis affecting Greece’s relations with the Balkan countries and Greece’s standing in the region? An initial impact assessment By Dr. Ritsa Panagiotou & Mr. Anastasios I. Valvis Research for this report was made possible through funding from Eurobank Athens, May 2014 Table of Contents Pg. 02 Table of Contents ABOUT THE AUTHORS ________________________________________________________________________ 4 ABOUT THE SOUTH-EAST EUROPE PROGRAMME ________________________________________ 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS _________________________________________________________________________ 6 PREFACE ________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ________________________________________________________________________ 8 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GREEK POLICY MAKERS____________________________________ 14 AN INITIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT ________________________________________________________ 16 INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH ____________________________________________________________ 16 PART I: GREEK PRESENCE IN THE BALKANS: THE DIPLOMATIC/ POLITICAL DIMENSION ___________________________________________________________________________________ 18 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________________ 18 I.1. The historical background ________________________________________________________________ 19 I.1.a 1989-1995: a period of misguided decisions _______________________________________________ 22 I.1.b 1995-2008: An active Greek presence in the Balkans ________________________________________ 28 I.1.c Greek Foreign Policy in the Balkans since 2008: Greece under financial siege. ____________________ 34 I.2. Qualitative Research: The findings _________________________________________________________ 38 I.2.a Rate of Bilateral Agreements, Protocols and Memoranda between Greece and the Balkans ________ 39 I.2.b Survey Results ______________________________________________________________________ 42 Some conclusions on the survey ____________________________________________________________ 53 PART II. GREECE’S ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH THE BALKAN COUNTRIES ______ 55 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________________ 55 II. 1. The Hellenic Plan for Economic Reconstruction of the Balkans (HiPERB) _________________________ 56 Public investments/ large projects ___________________________________________________________ 60 Private productive investments _____________________________________________________________ 62 Small Projects Fund ______________________________________________________________________ 63 Some conclusions ________________________________________________________________________ 64 II.2. Trade Relations between Greece and its Balkan Neighbours: Evolution and composition of trade _____ 66 Some conclusions regarding trade between Greece and Balkan countries ___________________________ 96 Table of Contents Pg. 03 II.3. Greek Investment in the Balkan Countries __________________________________________________ 98 Some conclusions regarding Greek investment in the Balkans ___________________________________ 116 PART III. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS _______________________________________________________ 118 The New Environment - The Impact of the Crisis on Greece’s relations with the Balkan Countries and Greece’s role in the region __________________________________________________________________________ 118 Impact on Trade: ________________________________________________________________________ 118 Impact on FDI: __________________________________________________________________________ 119 Impact on the Balkan countries’ Banking Sector: ______________________________________________ 120 Impact on Migration and Remittances: ______________________________________________________ 120 Impact on the economies of the region: _____________________________________________________ 121 Impact on Greece’s stature in the region: redefining the role of “Ambassador” _____________________ 122 APPENDIX 1 : RATE OF BILATERAL AGREEMENTS, PROTOCOLS AND MEMORANDA BETWEEN GREECE AND THE BALKANS _________________________________________________ 126 APPENDIX 2: ONLINE SURVEY ____________________________________________________________ 130 BIBLIOGRAPHY _____________________________________________________________________________ 133 About the Authors Pg. 04 About the Authors Ritsa Panagiotou is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre of Planning and Economic Research in Athens (KEPE). She holds a B.A. (Cum Laude) in Political Science and Russian from Wellesley College, and an M.Phil and a D.Phil in International Relations from Oxford University (St. Antony’s College). For several years she worked as a Research Associate at the European Business School (INSEAD) in Fontainebleau, France. She has been a Visiting Professor at the Athens University of Economics and Business and at the University of Athens Postgraduate Programme in Southeast European Studies. In 2011 she was a Visiting Research Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. Her research interests include European political economy, the political and economic development of the Balkan region, and the European Union’s Balkan enlargement. She has published in many scholarly journals, including Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Journal of Balkan and Near East Studies, the Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, and Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. e-mail: [email protected] Anastasios I. Valvis is Junior Research Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy and assistant Editor of the journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies since January 2013. He is PhD candidate of Political Science and International Relations, University of the Peloponnese. He holds a BA on Political Science from Athens National University and a MA in International Politics and Security Studies from the department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford. He has been for more than three years researcher at the Institute of International Economic Relations (Athens), and he has also participated in research projects at the University of Athens (Jean Monnet European Centre of Excellence, project on European and Greek foreign policy), and at the University of the Peloponnese (Research project: Exploring the Integration Opportunities and Prospects of African Immigrants into the Greek Society). He has also cooperated with the Hellenic-African Chamber of Commerce and Development, the Association of SA and Ltd Companies and the Harokopio University. He has been visiting lecturer at the Hellenic Police Academy in Komotini. He has published in edited volumes and peer reviewed journals in Greek and English. e-mail: [email protected] About the South-East Europe Programme Pg. 05 About the South-East Europe Programme The South-East Europe Programme of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) was set up in October 2011. Research and policy analysis on Balkan affairs has a long tradition in ELIAMEP going back to its founding in 1988. The recently established South-East Europe Programme intends to follow that legacy of high quality scholarly and policy work. More specifically, the Programme aspires to: Provide structure to ELIAMEP’s diverse work on South-East Europe and to systematise its approach. Enrich ELIAMEP’s work on regional international relations with a thorough investigation of the domestic context of Southeast European states. Combine policy analysis skills with theoretical knowledge and rigorous methodology to achieve research excellence Promulgate policy recommendations for the promotion of security, democracy and economic development in South-East Europe Publish policy reports, briefing notes, background guides, academic articles and other relevant publications Communicate research findings to wider audiences and raise awareness about the ELIAMEP’s research on Balkan affairs. Build collaborations with important organizations and think tanks in South-East Europe and beyond. The South-East Europe Programme promotes the debate on key Southeast European issues by frequently organizing and participating in high profile events. In the context of the forum ‘Debating South-East Europe’ the Programme organizes closed sessions under Chatham House Rule in which diplomats and policy makers, academics and journalists brainstorm on important regional problems. The Programme also organizes international conferences in Greece, while its members frequently give lectures and speeches in conferences held in South-East Europe and beyond. The South-East Europe Programme publishes policy analyses and research findings through the standard publishing outlets of ELIAMEP. It also reaches wider audiences by publishing short articles and op-eds in prominent Greek and international media and its news are communicated to 15,000 subscribers through the mailing lists of ELIAMEP and the South- East Europe Programme itself. Last but not least, the South-East Europe Programme is associated with the academic journal Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, which is published by ELIAMEP in partnership with Taylor & Francis. For more information, including recent and forthcoming reports and analyses, on the Programme, please visit: http://www.eliamep.gr/en/category/security-regional-developments/πρόγραμμα-νοτιοανατολικής-ευρώπης/ Acknowledgments Pg. 06 Acknowledgments There are many people we would like to thank
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