Section:GDN BE PaGe:18 Edition Date:090422 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 21/4/2009 21:42 cYanmaGentaYellowblack

18 The Guardian | Wednesday 22 April 2009 The Guardian | Wednesday 22 April 2009 19 Budget 2009 Your cut-out-and-keep scorecard

Tax, debt Economy Environment Business Stimulus Tax loopholes Personal and maybe fi nance a rabbit too

When he was chancellor, Gordon Brown would start Remember all that talk about how the government Industry groups usually form an orderly queue If recessions havee an upside for beleaguered For ddecades, there has been only one direction for And fi nally, what do all these billions mean for savers With a deep recession and a his budgets by boasting of the longest stretch of was going to launch a green new deal to get us out of outside No 11 before any budget, all lobbying for a chancellors, it’s that any extra spending can be taxes: down. This recession may mean the end to all and spenders? government desperate to economic growth since the year dot. How times this recession? Well, you can expect more talk this handout from the chancellor. This time they have labelled stimulus – which makes them sounds like a that. Anxious to raise cash, and led by President change. Alistair Darling will deliver his second afternoon – the question is, will you get action? been slightly less demanding – perhaps recognising matter of national importance. Up until a few weeks Barack Obama’s crusade against tax havens, the change the political weather, budget during the most severe global recession that there’s less money to go around. Even so, ago, all the speculation was over how much extra government is likely to take action on avoidance – Did he hold VAT down? since the second world war, and he’s likely to begin Darling might still fi nd a few sweeteners … spending Darling would announce this afternoon. and to try to close any stray loopholes. Darling’s signal act in November was to bring by talking about the scale of the crisis and the mess That was before Mervyn King, the head of the Bank of Tick if yes the stakes for today’s budget Is there a big green package? VAT down to 15%, which cost the Treasury it’s made of the public fi nances. Look for plenty of Did Darling launch a credit England, warned there was not enough room to Did capital gains tax go up? £12bn – and brought the chancellor endless are high. Aditya Chakrabortty use of the word “global” – code for “it’s not our The government’s own green adviser , the insurance scheme? spend much more. Even so, the chancellor could fi nd fl ak from economists and opposition fault”. And note by its absence any assurance that Sustainable Development Commission, says Tick if yes money for deserving causes … Investment returns are taxed at a much lower politicians alike who asked what good it had Tick if yes and Kathryn Hopkins guide the UK is well-placed to ride out the credit crunch. 800,000 green-collar jobs could be created It sounds dull, but for a number of businesses Tick if yes rate than income – a loophole very eff ectively done. He’s expected to confi rm that the VAT exploited by many high earners in the City. you through the afternoon’s Darling tried that claim last year, and it looked with a £30bn package. But will the this could keep them from going under. Many Is there money for jobs? rate will return to 17.5% from 1 January– and pretty suspect even then. chancellor be willing or able to stump up car parts fi rms have warned the government Private-equity barons often reclassify their that it will keep going up after that. According speech, those big numbers – that much? that they could go bust owing to the Downing Street is describing this as “a budget income as capital gains and pay very little to to the accountants at Deloitte, a 1% increase withdrawal of insurance that would protect for jobs”, and doing something to boost Tick if yes the taxman. Changing this system could bring would cost someone on average earnings of and the bits the chancellor Did Darling admit the severity them if a business partner goes into employment would doubtless be touted as an in a lot more money and might be popular . £25,000 about £1 per week. of the recession? Did the government set a recommended administration. Darling could provide example of what Labour is for. Expect a major target to reduce greenhouse gas government guarantees worth up to £5bn so announcement of help to create hundreds of may not want you to see. Will In November’s pre-budget report he forecast Tick if yes emissions in the next decade ? that fi rms can get access to insurance. thousands more jobs. Many are likely to be Was higher rate income tax relief a fall in national income of between 0.75% Tick if yes Alistair Darling come clean on targeted at 16-24-year-olds, who could be on pensions scrapped? to 1.25% in 2009, but many economists Gordon Brown’s own Committee on Climate Change says a 34% cut by 2020 is needed, guaranteed a job, work experience or training. the scale of the downturn? believe this will have to be increased - to a Will there be cash for clunkers? Again a lot of high earners funnel money into Tick if yes plunge of 3.5% rising to a 42% reduction if the rest of the their pensions as a means of paying less tax . world joins in. Under this infamous scheme, anyone driving Just how big is that budget Is there extra cash for Some in the City are jittery that Darling may an old banger will be able to trade it in for Tick if yes crack down on this gilded regime – which alleviating child poverty ? black hole anyway? Will there £2,000 towards a new motor. Mandelson likes could raise billions for the Treasury. Was the chancellor forced to this plan, and Darling will probably put some When he was chancellor, Gordon Brown went Tick if yes be a crackdown on tax borrow more? version of it into gear. on a crusade against child poverty – and adopted targets to help the government fi ght Is there a new code to prevent the avoidance, or more money Darling has predicted a public sector defi cit Tick if yes it. But those targets are slipping away, so the nationalised banks avoiding taxes? of £118bn this fi nancial year, but that forecast Did he cut the red tape? government will need to spend more to stand Are National Insurance pumped into the economy? is likely to be torn up. The Institute for Fiscal You might expect this to be mentioned by the Tick if yes More than 35,000 business leaders have a chance of meeting them. Darling could contributions to be frozen? Studies believes he will forecast a defi cit of Guardian. We’ve run a series of stories over signed a petition urging the government to Tick if yes provide a £3bn stimulus to meet the And will he – can he – pull any £150bn, while independent forecasters on the past few weeks pointing out how banks There is speculation that the chancellor could Tick if yes freeze new regulations they say would cost government’s child poverty target by 2010. average predict a defi cit of £160bn. now largely owned by the taxpayer have been announce an increase in all NIC rates by 0.5% rabbits out of the hat? fi rms £1bn. Whether Darling goes along with engaged in complicated schemes to reduce today but it would be politically unpopular. It all their proposals is a moot point. Since it is Were there any more their tax. Look for Darling to announce a new might also be economically unwise to bring in apparently against the law for chancellors to system tightening up the rules. a measure that would add to employers’ costs Is defl ation coming? Are new coal power stations ruled announcements on the government’s support more regulation, he is bound to make new industrial policy? while unemployment remains so high. The D-word strikes fear into the heart of out unless they guarantee to trap supportive noises. Besides, it’s one of the few Tick if yes Peter Mandelson and Gordon Brown have ministers. Falling prices is one of the most Tick if yes and store their pollution? Tick if yes things he can do that won’t cost any money. suddenly come over all French and are now Is there a new scheme to introduce corrosive things to happen to an economy – Ministers are expected to increase Are ISA allowances going up? talking about wading in to nurture fl edging country-by-country reporting? and yesterday, it looked like it had arrived in governmental support for carbon capture high-skills industries.stries. Trouble isis,, itit’s s not Accounting is rarely excitingexciting,, but this would TickTick if yesyes After a bigg debt-fuelled crisis, the chancellor the UK, when the retail prices index went and storage – but by how much, and who Will small businesses get automatic much more thann ttalkalk aatt the mmomentoment – which bebe a majormajor advance. By forcingforcing multinationals isis underunder pressure to do more to encourage Tick if yes negative for the fi rst time since 1960. Still, the will pay for it? rate relief? is why oppositionon politicians hhaveave given tthishis savingsaving by increasingincreasi the amount savers can chancellor is likely to say that defl ation will to report their earningsearnings across territories, it The Treasury is under pressure to bring in Tick if yes new policy a kickingcking for beinbeingg vacuous. This tuck awayaway tax-free.tax-free There is speculation that not stick around. Many analysts believe he will become muchmuch easier forfor tax ooffiffi cials automatic business rate relief for small afternoon is thee chancellor’s chance to proveprove thethe ISA allowancallowancee will be increased to will stick by November’s forecast for the CPI Does any car scrappage scheme have bothboth herehere and abroad to spot wwhoho is not companies. Lobby groups say they are the sceptics wrong,ong, and to put more fl eseshh on £10,000 a yyearear measure of infl ation, which is that infl ation enough green screens attached? payingpaying their fair share.share. “very hopeful” that this will be included in the bare bones. will fall to 0.5% by the end of 2009. Subsidies to encourage people to scrap their Tick if yes the budget. old cars and buy new ones will be welcomed VerdictVe Verdictrdict by the motor industry, but environment The more ticks the moremore TheThe more ticksticks tthehe more serious Did the government ditch their experts are sceptical about the promised Will Darling subsidise cuts stimulating Darling hhasas thethe govgovernmenternment is aaboutbout forecasts of a rebound next year? carbon savings. to working hours? decided to be tigtighteninghtening upup on tax Darling has planned on a strong recovery in Tick if yes Both trade unions and businesses are Tick if yes 2010, with GDP growing between 1.5% and Is the government giving enough demanding that the budget contain 2%. He is likely to shave his forecast down to support to renewables? measures to pay state subsidies to growth of 1% next year. And even that looks a employees whose working hours The off shore wind industry alone could Tick if yes have been cut. They see this as a touch optimistic. provide an extra 70,000 jobs, but … and the rabbit way of staving off further job manufacturing companies urgently need losses – but the idea is more investment. Which is hard to come by unlikely to be taken up. in the hat? Good timing? in this credit crisis. IsIs therethere a schemeschem to boost tthehe houshousinging mmarket?a Some chancellors drone on for longer than others, Is the government going to roll out a Since every chancellor fancies himself as a bbitit of a magician, ttherehere is DespiteDespite tthehe odd bblip, the housing market is Tick if yes though by the time they get to the indexation of capital plan for supporting the installation of always tremendous pressure to pull a rabbit ooutut of the hat. This time, still headingheading southsouth – and it looks like the allowances, every budget speech can feel like an eternity, governmentgovernment is goinggoi to throw more money at domestic insulation quickly? Tick if yes Darling’s job has been made even harder by thee lack of money – and the amount but how long will this one last? of briefi ng preceding this announcement. So howw can hhee wow tthehe crowds? it.it. TThehe Guardian reportedr this week that Better home insulation remains one of the AlistairAlistair DarlingDarling planspl to unveil an emergency Option 1 Announce another big stimulus quickest wins in terms of reducing carbon £1bn£1bn packagepackage this afternoon with a fund to Darling could forget the anxiety over the black holee and go hhellell for leatleather,her, borrowing Longest budget speech emissions – and it could create thousands of build council houses,hou to extend the stamp substantially more. The National Institute for Economicomic and Social Research ururgedged the jobs. The government supports the idea, but duty hholidayoliday on buying,b and restart work on government earlier this week to introduce a £30bn stimulustimulus package. TThehe leading 4 hrs, 45 mins how quickly will it be rolled out? mothballed projects.projec thinktank said that there was no evidence the fi nancialial markets were concerned about thethe William Gladstone, on 18 Aprilp 1853 level of government debt: “Market-based perceptionss for borrowing costs over the next decade remain below 5%. Increased borrowing in the bubudgetdget would make virtuallyvirtually no Will the government delay closing WasWas ththee basicbasic rate of income tax held? Shortest budget speech the black hole? diff erence to these costs.” Given the size oof the black hole, there’s And fi nally, there’s that massive gap in the Tick if yes Option 2 Reverse the VAT cut some sspeculationpeculati this might happen. An Tick if yes 45 mins public fi nances. The government said in Since the 2.5% cut to VAT announced in the PBR has increaseincrease ooff 1% iin the basic rate to 21% November that it would close the black hole proved to be so unpopular, Darling could scrap it andd Benjaminj Disraeli on 4 April 1867 wouldwould raisera more than £3bn and by 2015-16, but Darling has hinted that he will use the money for something else. The only snag is wouldw cost someone earning need more time – and he’s likely to drag the that that would involve Gordon Brown admitting hee £25,000,£ £3.50 per week. timeline out to 2017-18. The trouble is, was wrong ... BBrown’sro last budget speech WouldW any chancellor brave bringing the books back to order will require Option 3 Spend more to create jobs thet likely fl ood of hate mail? 48 mins politicians to infl ict misery on voters with a Darling could introduce the £90bn jobs package mix of big tax increases and drastic spending that Bank of England policymaker David on 21 March 2007 cuts – and who wants to do that? Blanchfl ower called for in this paper. Blanchflfl ower, who was one of the earliest senior economistssts in tthishis Darling’s speech lasted country to warn about the severity of thiss recession, believes that the money could help createeate 750,000 jobs Verdict – and that it would be equivalent to ththee $800bn VerdictVerdict Verdict Verdict mins spending splurge planned by Barackrack Obama in the TheThe more ticksticks The more ticks The more ticks The more ticks, the the happier US. thethe happierhappier worse the state of the greener the savers andand budget is business will be the economy –and pleasantly spendersspenders willwill bebe surprised too