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Thursday, September 21, 2000 ! Volume 7, Number 8 Page 1 of 8 Fat September and The notions of a wave Howey !"#$%&'##'()%*+,-$%-%$-,.'()/,0 By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Call it “Fat September.” For a brief period over the past week, we watched Political Vice President Al Gore’s lead over Republican George W. Bush expanding not only nationally - 49 to 41 percent - but also his Electoral College lead widened to nearly 50 votes - Report 244 to 199 - with some observers suggesting he was only about 30 votes short of the magic 270. The states that had Gore “leaning” toward victory The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink only a month ago - Illinois, Michigan - moved into the “like- Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the ly” category. Tossup states such as Pennsylvania and political process in Indiana. Missouri took a decidedly Gore advantage. And states where Bush seemed to have an advantage, most notably Colorado, Brian A. Howey, publisher Oregon, Georgia and Florida, became tossups. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer There were other ominous signs. CNN/USA Today/ Jack E. Howey, editor Gallup reported that Bush's favorable rating had dropped The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 from a personal best of 67 percent after the GOP convention PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 to 61 percent after the Democratic conclave, to just 52 per- Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 cent over the weekend. In the Rasmussen Portrait of [email protected] America rolling three-day average, the pollster noted, "The www.howeypolitics.com biggest change in the dynamics of the race since the party conventions is that Al Gore is perceived much more posi- Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. tively than he was before the convention. Al Gore also suc- ceeded in altering the public perception of Bush a bit.” Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or Could there be a Democratic wave developing? fax. Call 317-254-1533. Back in 1994, there were premonitions of the © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights Republican tsunami dating back to the dog days of summer. reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or But it wasn’t until Sept. 27 that year that the 185 Republican reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- congressional candidates gathered on the Capitol steps to tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. sign the “Contract with America” that sent vivid signals of a Continued on page 2 “People would like my positive vision, but Ticker Tape: Lugar praises PNTR p. 2 this year they’re not paying attention to it...." Congress Watch: New Democrats p. 4 Columnists: Hannon, Rothenberg p. 5 - Republican gubernatorial nominee David Horse Race: South Bend Tribune poll McIntosh, to the Warsaw Times-Union. has O’Bannon up 15 points p. 7 In Our 7th Year of Covering the Golden Age of Hoosier Politics Thursday, Sept. 21, 2000 Page 2 of 8 SENATE PASSES PNTR: The U.S. Senate passed the Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China on Tuesday. U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar commented on the legislation: "China is a huge market for American agri- cultural and industrial prod- ucts. Even more important- ly, for our national security, we must get the Russian and Chinese relations right. If our children are to have a peaceful future, we must help China to become a nor- Thus, Fat September. mal country that respects Wave, from page 1 Republicans both nationally and freedom and human rights, developing and historic wave. It wasn’t here in Indiana were fretting about a Bush follows international rule of until the final days of the 1998 campaign flame-out that had the possibility of shak- law and participates fairly in that it became clear that Democrats were ing the party’s chances to the core. Both world markets. To influence Rothenberg and Charlie Cook of the Cook China we should encourage going to making stunning gains in the a lot of Americans to go final Clintonian mid-term elections as Political Report noted a distinct “pes- there, including students, impeachment swirled in the air. And it simism” and “disillusionment” with GOP religious leaders, business wasn’t until the final weekend of the 1980 operatives around the country - even people, trade unionists, campaign that Ronald Reagan broke out though both estimate that Gore’s lead is journalists and political of a dead heat with President Carter to really between 3 and 8 percent. leaders. Through passage stake out an epic landslide. But Brad Tracy of the Indiana of the PNTR bill, all House Republican caucus told HPR earli- Americans will benefit by Most of the top observers don’t helping to maintain eco- believe there is a wave. Stuart Rothenberg er this week, “We are sticking to plan. We nomic prosperity and to wrote in the Rothenberg Political Report are excited and believe that Bush has promote American democra- published on Sept. 14, “At this point, we found his low mark and is starting to tic and human rights values expect Democratic gains to fall in the four rebound.” in China. President Clinton to eight seat range. Anything less than a That was before Bush walked on strongly supports the Democratic gain of two seats or more than the stage of the Oprah Winfrey Show on legislation and has said that a Democratic gain of a dozen seats would Tuesday, planted an affectionate kiss on he will sign it into law.” be surprising. We currently don’t expect her cheek and participated in a charming AMERITECH PROMISES TO the presidential contest to have a major interview that was witnessed by millions DO BETTER: Ameritech's impact on the fight for the House. But that of females across the nation. It’s too early Indiana chief, George Fleet- could change if one of the parties be- to tell what the impact is going to be wood, joined a growing comes demoralized in the fight for the (Gore has close to a 20-point lead over number of CEOs who have White House.” Bush with female votes, a virtual flip-flop had to go on TV and apolo- Chris Mehl, a top aide to U.S. Rep. between the two from early summer), but gize for the dismal perfor- mances of their companies Tim Roemer, agreed. “It’s a good year to most observers thought it would help be an incumbent. People are going to vote Bush smooth over a gaping gender gap. Continued on page 3 their pocketbooks.” “I’ll remind you that George Bush kissed Page 3 of 8 Thursday, Sept. 21, 2000 Howey Political Report The 2000 Pre-Election Howey Briefing Series coming Political and promise to do better. to Indianapolis, South Bend Report Fleetwood spoke on a video The second annual HPR Pre-Election Briefing Series will take place released by Ameritech on Monday, saying that the on Nov. 1 and Nov. 2 in Indianapolis and South Bend. The briefings will fea- company would bring in ture statewide polling and analysis by HPR’s Brian Howey and Mark Schoeff 300 technicians from sur- Jr., TeleResearch Pollster Jeff Lewis, Ron Gifford of Baker & Daniels, Stuart rounding states to take care Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report and Jack Colwell of the South of a huge backlog of orders. Bend Tribune. Join us for lunch and analysis of the fascinating 2000 election. Fleetwood did not avail him- self for questions from the Here are the details: media. He followed a trend Indianapolis: 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 1 at the Columbia where the CEOs of Ford, Club. Sponsors include Baker & Daniels, DLZ, Vectren and National Firestone/Bridgestone and Graphics. Cost: $20. United Airlines have had to South Bend: 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 2, at the Holiday Inn go on camera and acknowl- edge the terrible service in downtown South Bend. Sponsors include Baker & Daniels, DLZ, the St. and/or performances their Joseph County Chamber of Commerce. Cost: $15. companies perpetrated on To register, call 317-254-0535 or 317-254-1533 or e-mail us at: consumers. Complaints [email protected]. about Ameritech service in Indiana rose to 295 in August from 95 in July. The The Wall Street Journal reported Howey on Monday that other units Political Report of Ameritech have also been swamped with complaints about service, specifically citing the company's Ohio unit. BROADCAST CONTENT CRITICIZED: Fourth CD Oprah Winfrey and Al Gore did not,” said has gone on the offensive - citing “mis- Democrat candidate Mike Ken Rudin of National Public Radio on management” by the O’Bannon adminis- Foster said Sunday he CNN Wednesday. “When Gore kissed his tration. A South Bend Tribune poll show- believes vulgar words that wife at the convention, his numbers shot ing O’Bannon’s lead at 15 percent may be refer to body parts or through the roof.” the first indicator of traction. The McIn- are put-downs of women Rudin also noted that Gore is tosh goal will be to shave off 3 or 4 points should be banned from repeating the “frontrunner” mistake Bush a week from the O’Bannon lead. radio and TV (Sylvia A. had made during the convention sequence O’Bannon will hit back beginning Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Under his plan, - going on the defensive. Thursday, citing Moody’s Investor Service Congress would authorize Absolutely critical for Bush to and its Aa1 bond rating, due to “the state’s hundreds of panels across regain and/or solidify his momentum and low debt levels and history of effective the country to determine re-energize his ground troops will be the budgetary management,” said Thad Nat- what language should be three debates in Boston on Oct.

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