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EICTP Katalog Transnational Terrorism V2.Indd EICTP VIENNA RESEARCH PAPERS ON TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM AND COUNTER TERRORISM: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM AND THE ANTI-TERROR MEASURES IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS December 2020 EICTP VIENNA RESEARCH PAPERS ON TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM AND COUNTER TERRORISM: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM AND THE ANTI-TERROR MEASURES IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS Published by the European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Conflict Prevention December 2020 IMPRINT The European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Conflict Prevention (EICTP) is a research association operating worldwide and with its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. As a non-profit institution the focus of EICTP is on key topics around security policy-related issues. It carries out projects with renowned partners in Austria and abroad, maintains close relationships with high-level research organizations and a network of prominent experts and scholars, offers profound sets of actions, consultations and strategies related to counter-terrorism, hybrid conflicts, and de-radicalization measures and aims at creating policy-related recommendations based on research and expert assessments for decision-makers. Address: European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Conflict Prevention (EICTP) Esslinggasse 17/5, AT-1010 Vienna www.eictp.eu Media owner, editor, producer: EICTP Place of publication: Esslinggasse 17/5, 1010 Wien Proof-reading and formal editing: EICTP Graphic Design: Citypress GmbH Print: Citypress GmbH Disclaimer of liability: The contents of this publication have been researched and created with utmost diligence and care. EICTP provides no guarantee for the correctness, completeness and topicality of the information given. Neither EICTP nor other parties involved in the creation of this publication shall be held liable for damages of any kind arising from the use, application or circulation of the provided information. Should this publication contain references to other media of third parties and over which no influence can be exerted by EICTP, no liability whatsoever of such contents shall be assumed. The relevant media owner shall be responsible for the correctness of the contents of the information provided. The content of this publication represents the findings and opinions of several authors and a variety of printed academic publications and articles. Whenever possible the most recent sources were incorporated. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the opinion of position of the EICTP. Copyright: All of the content published in this summarized research report is copyrighted. Without prior written consent of the author any type of duplication, distribution, modification, or repro-duction is not permitted, both against payments and for free. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction to Combined Expert Contributions: The Threat of Terrorism and the Anti-Terror-Measures in the Greater Caucasus......................... 9 EXPERT CONTRIBUTIONS ............................................................................................................. 21 Current Trends and Developments in the North Caucasus. .......................................................... 23 Current Trends and Developments in the North and South Caucasus: A View From Russia ............................................................................................................................ 33 Current Trends and Developments in the South Caucasus ........................................................... 45 Current Trends and Developments in Azerbaijan ........................................................................... 55 Current Trends and Developments in Georgia ................................................................................ 67 Current Trends and Developments in Armenia ............................................................................... 77 Current Developments in the South Caucasus: A Special View on Extremist and Terrorist Financing .................................................................... 87 List of Authors ................................................................................................................................... 101 5 6 FOREWORD The South Caucasus has become the focus of attention for the international community in the wake of the renewed intense conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But even beyond the internal and inter-state conflicts, events in the South Caucasus as well as in the North Caucasus have at least an indirect impact on the EU's security situation due to its geographical proximity to the Middle East. Given an increasing necessity to understand systematic developments, paradigmatic shifts and recent trends in the sphere of politically motivated violence against innocent victims, the European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Con-flict Prevention (EICTP) devotes its work to in-depth analyses and studies of such uncertainty scenarios. This research study represents the first stage of an international research project “The Threat of Terrorism and the Anti-Terror-Measures in the Greater Caucasus” and consists of analytical contributions by an international expert team. This collection of analytic papers examines current trends and developments with regard to the political and security-related dimensions of the Greater Caucasus region – the North Caucasian republics within the Russian Federation and countries of the South Caucasus – and assesses the threat of terrorism and possible anti- terror-measures in the selected area of interest. Each expert contribution contains forecasts and conclusions that can be drawn with a view to future cooperations and actions for both the respective countries of the region and the European Union as a whole. EICTP considers it a key task to actively contribute well-founded strategies, provide feasible solution approaches and suggest options for action to policymakers. This is expected to be conducive to strengthening confidence in public order for a stable, strategic environment for promoting cooperation with European neighbours and partners beyond. On behalf of EICTP I wish you an enjoyable and insightful reading! Sincerely, Herbert Scheibner EICTP President 7 8 INTRODUCTION TO COMBINED EXPERT CONTRIBUTIONS: THE THREAT OF TERRORISM AND THE ANTI-TERROR- MEASURES IN THE GREATER CAUCASUS by Alexander Dubowy There is a high level of interrelation of non-traditional security threats in the Greater Caucasus. Especially the Islamic motivated extremism and terrorism tend to build a severe threat to most countries in the region. These problems have a strong tendency to intensify due to the current developments in several neighbouring countries, first and foremost the MENA-area. In the Greater Caucasus, the threat of (Islamic) religiously motivated extremism and terrorism is greatest for Russia, and in the South Caucasus for Georgia and Azerbaijan. During the conflict in the North Caucasus, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Islamic extremism reached its peak, and some researchers even speak of a "terrorist war" against Russia in this regard.1 Quite quickly the movements began to receive aid from al-Qaeda's global terrorist network. Created in 2007 by Dokka Umarov, then-Ichkerian president living in exile, the “Caucasus Emirate” (CE) meant the final transformation of the North Caucasus underground organization from a separatist-nationalist to a radical Islamist one. In recent years the weakening and losing of any attractiveness of the “Caucasus Emirate” has slowly been replaced by a new driving force, institutionalized by ISIS.2 In the South Caucasus, the (Islamic) terrorist danger mainly concerns Azerbaijan and Georgia. For the latter, the threat issue is mostly related to the situation in the valley region Pankisi Gorge, which has long been considered a terrorist haven. Concerning Armenia, due to both the ethnic and religious homogeneity of the population in general, the level of a terrorist threat is the lowest in the South Caucasus region.3 Today the social key players aimed at for recruitment by terrorist organizations are young adults from the North Caucasus, Central Asia, and other Muslim regions of the former Soviet Union, as well as migrant workers from Central Asia working in major Russian megacities, and representatives of criminal gangs.4 A new and dangerous trend which must be considered in the fight against terrorism is the increase of extremist propaganda. Today, the internet has become the main tool for recruitment of persons with terrorist or extremist intentions. In 2016, over 26,000 extremist and terrorist resources were identified in Russia alone, twice as many as a year earlier. Interaction between radical Islamic movements in Russia and non-CIS countries is increasing. After Arabic and English, Russian is the third most widely used language within the structures of the Islamic State.5 Research Project “The Threat of Terrorism and the Anti-Terror-Measures in the Greater Caucasus” In the following, the project will be presented in its main features. The analytical work was carried out with the online-based collaborative software Foresight Strategic Cockpit (FSC) on the methodological bases of Environmental Scanning, Trend Analysis and Alternative Scenario Creation (ASC). Introduction of Combined Expert Contributions 9 Collection of Analytic Papers In the first chapter on trends and developments with regard to terrorist
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