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Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative

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Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative RATING ACTION COMMENTARY Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative Thu 07 May, 2020 - 17:08 ET Fitch Ratings - Sao Paulo - 07 May 2020: Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook for the international long-term ratings of several Brazilian corporates to Negative from Stable following this week's Brazil's Sovereign Rating Outlook revision to Negative from Stable. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this press release. KEY RATING DRIVERS The Outlook revision to Negative for these issuers results from their exposure to Brazil's Country Ceiling or their direct linkage to the country's sovereign ratings. The Brazilian Sovereign's Outlook revision to Negative from Stable reflects the deterioration of Brazil's economic and fiscal outlooks, and downside risks to both given renewed political uncertainty, including tensions between the executive and congress, and uncertainty over the duration and intensity of the coronavirus pandemic. These factors could hinder the government's capacity for fiscal adjustment and implementation of economic reforms after the coronavirus https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 1/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative pandemic and a sizeable emergency policy response. Brazil entered the current period of stress with a relatively weak fiscal balance sheet and low economic growth. Fitch expects Brazil's economy to contract by 4% in 2020, with risks biased to the downside. Average growth of negative 0.6% over the last five years reflects a slow recovery after a long and deep recession in 2015/2016. Fitch forecasts the economy to grow by 3% in 2021 as it recovers from the pandemic and responds to the comprehensive set of fiscal, quasi-fiscal and monetary measures adopted by the authorities to prevent a deeper economic collapse. Fitch forecasts the general government deficit to reach 13% of GDP, compared with the current 'BB' median of 6.8%, due to the economic recession, lower oil prices and a sizeable fiscal support package. ESG Considerations: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for human rights, community relations, and access and affordability (SCR) due to social pressures' potential impact on pricing policy. The company's score for Governance Structure (GGV) is '4', resulting from its nature as a majority government-owned entity and the inherent governance risks that arise with a dominant state shareholder. Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobras) has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for GGV due to ownership concentration, as a majority government-owned entity and due to the inherent governance risks that arise with a dominant state shareholder. Eletrobras has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial Transparency due to the quality and timing of financial disclosure, due to the track record of delays in financial reports, which is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors. Rumo S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Labor Relations & Practices, as it reports labor liabilities from the period when some of its assets were operated by the government. The company has exposure to the cash flow impact of judgments regarding these liabilities. Rede D'Or Sao Luiz S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Labor Relations & Practices due to judicial litigation regarding labor5. Rede D'Or has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial Transparency because the quality of public financial disclosure is low. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 2/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch assumptions for Brazil's sovereign ratings include the global economy performing broadly in line with the Global Economic Outlook published on April 22, 2020, while acknowledging there is a higher than usual level of uncertainty around our macroeconomic forecasts. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade: --The Rating Outlook for these issuers could stabilize as result of a revision to Brazil's Sovereign ratings to Stable from Negative. Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade: - A downgrade of Brazil's ratings that results in a downward revision to the Country Ceiling. BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best- case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 3/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS Petrobras' and Eletrobras' ratings are directly linked to the sovereign rating of Brazil. ESG CONSIDERATIONS Petrobras has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights, Community Relations and SCR. The ESG Relevance score for GGV is '4'. Eletrobras' ESG Relevance Score for Governance Structure is 4, and Financial Transparency also has an ESG Relevance Score of '4'. Rede D'Or has ESG Relevance Score of '4' for both Labor Relations & Practices and Financial Transparency. Rumo's ESG Relevance Score for Labor Relations & Practices is '4'. Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of '3' -- ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies). For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg. RATING ACTIONS ENTITY/DEBT RATING Aegea LT BB Affirmed Saneamento e IDR Participacoes S.A. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 4/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative ENTITY/DEBT RATING LC LT BB Affirmed IDR Energisa LT BB Affirmed Sergipe - IDR Distribuidora de Energia S/A VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS FITCH RATINGS ANALYSTS Vitor Martins, CFA Associate Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 11 4504 2603 Gustavo Mueller Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2632 Wellington Senter Associate Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2606 Jose Vertiz Director Primary Rating Analyst +1 212 908 0641 Claudio Miori Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 11 4504 2207 Sul Ahmad, CFA Associate Director https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 5/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative Primary Rating Analyst +1 312 368 3348 Debora Jalles Director Primary Rating Analyst +1 312 606 2338 Renato Mota, CFA, CFA, CAIA Associate Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2629 Gisele Paolino Director Primary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2624 Lucas Aristizabal Senior Director Primary Rating Analyst +1 312 368 3260 Renato Mota, CFA, CFA, CAIA Associate Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2629 Mauro Storino Senior Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2625 Rafael Faro Analyst Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 3957 3616 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 6/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative Natalia Brandao Associate Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2631 Fernanda Rezende Senior Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2619 Claudio Miori Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 11 4504 2207 Gustavo Mueller Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2632 Gisele Paolino Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2624 Debora Jalles Director Secondary Rating Analyst +1 312 606 2338 Alexandre Garcia Associate Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 11 4504 2616 Tatiana Thomaz Associate Director Secondary Rating Analyst +55 21 4503 2605 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-several-brazilian-corporate-rating-outlooks-to-negative-07-05-2020 7/13 07/05/2020 Fitch Revises Several Brazilian Corporate Rating Outlooks to Negative Daniel Kastholm Managing Director Committee Chairperson +1 312 368 2070 MEDIA CONTACTS Elizabeth Fogerty New York +1 212 908 0526 elizabeth.fogerty@thefitchgroup.com
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