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World Bank Document DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 9 Public Disclosure Authorized Preventable Losses: Saving Lives and Property Public Disclosure Authorized through Hazard Risk Management A Comprehensive Risk Management Framework for Europe and Central Public Disclosure Authorized Asia Christoph Pusch Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank The Hazard Management Unit (HMU) of the World Bank provides proactive leadership in integrating disaster prevention and mitigation measures into the range of development related activities and improving emergency response. The HMU provides technical support to World Bank operations; direction on strategy and policy development; the generation of knowledge through work with partners across Bank regions, networks, and outside the Bank; and learning and training activities for Bank staff and clients. All HMU activities are aimed at promoting disaster risk management as an integral part of sustainable development. The Disaster Risk Management Working Paper Series presents current research, policies and tools under development by the Bank on disaster management issues and practices. These papers reflect work in progress and some may appear in their final form at a later date as publications in the Bank’s official Disaster Risk Management Series. Margaret Arnold, Acting Manager Hazard Management Unit The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Email: [email protected] World Wide Web: http://www.worldbank.org/hazards Cover Photo: From the archives of the Turkish Photo Reporters Association Hazard Management Unit WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 9 Preventable Losses: Saving Lives and Property Through Hazard Risk Management A Comprehensive Risk Management Framework for Europe and Central Asia Christoph Pusch The World Bank Washington, D.C. October 2004 Table of Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. v Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................. vi Executive summary ............................................................................................................................ vii Executive summary (in the Russian language) ............................................................................... xiii 1. Getting prepared: the importance of hazard risk management ..................................................1 1.1 Evolving global trends ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The World Bank perspective ..................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Objective, scope, and methodology of the regional strategy ................................................... 3 2. The threat of natural hazards to people and economies ............................................................. 5 2.1 Geographic concentration of natural hazards ........................................................................... 5 2.2 Hazard profiles by subregion .................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Social and economic impact of natural disasters in high-risk countries ................................. 11 2.4 Countries’ capacity to manage risk ......................................................................................... 13 3. Strategic framework: proactive hazard risk management ......................................................... 16 3.1 First pillar: assessing risk ........................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Second pillar: emergency preparedness ................................................................................. 18 3.3 Third pillar: investments in risk mitigation..............................................................................20 3.4 Fourth pillar: institutional capacity building ............................................................................ 23 3.5 Fifth pillar: catastrophe risk financing ..................................................................................... 26 4. The path ahead: recommendations and priorities ..................................................................... 29 4.1 Recommendations for countries in the region ........................................................................ 29 4.2 Recommendations for the World Bank ................................................................................... 30 Figures Figure 2.1. Main tectonic collision zones in Europe and Central Asia ........................................... 5 Figure 2.2. Population at risk of a catastrophic event, by country ............................................... 12 Figure 2.3. Potential economic losses from natural disasters, by country ................................... 12 Figure 2.4. Return period of average expected annual losses from natural disasters in Europe and Central Asia ........................................................................................13 Figure 3.1. Framework for hazard risk management ................................................................... 17 Tables Table 2.1. Estimated exposure to landslides in the most vulnerable countries of Europe and Central Asia ........................................................................................... 8 IV Boxes Box 3.1. Emergency management in Belarus, Moldova, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine 18 Box 3.2. Mexico City’s Seismic Alert System .............................................................................. 21 Box 3.3. Mitigating earthquake damage by strengthening building codes ..................................21 Box 3.4. Community involvement in Tajikistan: The Lake Sarez Reconstruction and Mitigation Project ................................................ 25 Box 3.5. The Turkish Earthquake Insurance Pool ........................................................................ 27 Annexes Annex A Country Risk Profiles ..................................................................................................... 31 Annex B Risk Assessment Methodology ..................................................................................... 82 Annex C Overview of Countries in the Europe and Central Asia Region ....................................85 Annex D Useful Web Sites........................................................................................................... 86 References .......................................................................................................................................... 88 v Foreword The Europe and Central Asia Region is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards. Major events— such as the devastating earthquake in Turkey’s Marmara region that took more than 17,000 lives in 1999 or the 2002 flooding in Central Europe, which caused economic losses estimated at more than $15 billion—are only part of the spectrum. Smaller but more frequent events also warrant attention. In the Kyrgyz Republic, for example, every year landslides kill dozens of people and destroy the homes of several hundred families. These events do not find their way into the international media, but they have disastrous effects on lives and livelihoods, particularly of poor people. With this document, the Europe and Central Asian region is systematically promoting the implementation of a comprehensive framework that integrates risk assessment, emergency preparedness, disaster prevention, and catastrophe risk financing with the objective of reducing client countries’ economic and social exposure to natural hazards on an ex ante basis. Special emphasis is given to the need to strengthen the institutional capacity to prevent and better manage emergencies. The strategic framework serves as the conceptional basis for the design of a new generation of hazard risk mitigation operations currently under preparation or implementation in the Kyrgyz Republic, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, and Turkey. The willingness to borrow about $1 billion for these projects demonstrates the importance the countries in the region place on protecting their populations and economies, and reflects the increased demand for hazard risk management initiatives. The comprehensive approach introduced and the specific recommendations outlined for vulnerable countries will facilitate reduction of their loss exposures to natural disasters, save lives and property, minimize the impact of disasters on national economies, and make the poverty reduction efforts of the Bank truly sustainable. Laura Tuck Director Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Europe and Central Asia Region vi Acknowledgements Preparation of this study was funded by the World Bank’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Regional Vice Presidency and the World Bank’s Hazard Management Unit, through the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, under the umbrella of the ProVention Consortium. The study team thanks them for their generous support to this initiative. The document will be discussed in a stakeholder workshop scheduled for October 2004 in Istanbul. The World Bank Institute is organizing the workshop in cooperation with Marmara University. The principle author and task team
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