1974 Worw Population Year THE POPULATION OF POLAND 1974 WORLD POPULATION YEAR THE POPULATION OF POLAND POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES COMMITTEE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES WARSZAWA PWN — Polish Scientific Publishers Warszawa 1975 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD 5 Chapter I POPULATION GROWTH IN THE POLISH TERRITORIES by Stanisbw Borowski 7 II NATURAL POPULATION MOVEMENT, POPULATION, REPRODUC- TION AND THE FAMILY, by Stanishw Borowtki 17 III POPULATION COMPOSITION, by Maria Namyslowska 42 IV INTERNAL MIGRATION, by Mikotaj Latuch 69 V THE LABOUR FORCE, by Kazimierz Dzienio 93 VI POPULATION FORECASTS, by Janina Alektiftska 118 VII THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND POPULATION POLICY, by Adam Józefowicz 133 FOREWORD The monograph on Poland's population growth which we are presenting to the readers has been prepared by Polish demographers at the request of CICRED which, in connection with 1974 World Population Year, assumed the responsibility for the coordination of national demographic monographs. The purpose of the monographs is to contribute to the popularization of the knowledge of population problems of our globe. This work is a collective effort under the auspices of the Committee for Demographic Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the authors of the particular chapters are members of this Committee. Included in this work is synthetic information on the present state and develop ment of Poland's population, especially in the 1950—1970 period together with an extensive historical background and population projections. Abundant official statistical information based on Polish population censuses and current records of population movements were used in this work. Use was made also of: registry offices, minor questionnaire surveys conducted by Gtówny Urzad Statystyczny (Central Statistical Office), by schools of higher learning, institutes and even by individual researchers. All statistics have been compiled according to the old three level administrative division of the country, in force up to 31st of May 1975. A new two-level administrative division, binding since 1st of June 1975, has been presented in a special sliding administrative map which will help the reader to get some idea about changes in the areas of the voivodships. The. Committee for Demographic Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences expresses its satisfaction with the opportunity of publishing this monograph and thus making its contribution, together with other countries to the joint cognitive effort to enhance the knowledge of population problems in connection with the World Population Year. Chapter I POPULATION GROWTH IN THE POLISH TERRITORIES There is a very great variety of information sources on the population of the Polish territories. Polish historians, geographers and anthropologists, such as: J, Czekanowski, J. Kostrzewski, L. Krzywicki, H. Lowmiañski and E. Vielrose estimated the population from the 10th century to the beginning of the 14th on the basis of the known settlement network and the level of the economy at that time. Around 1340, a once-over tax for the Pope in Rome was levied in Poland via the Church hierarchy. The data on this tax, called the Peter-penny, provide the first document concerning the total population of the Polish territories. Studies into this source and estimates of population before World War II were made by T. Lado- górski; discussion on the results lasted for over 40 years. Later population estimates were made by: A. Powiñski, T. Korzon, I. Kleczyñski, H. Wierciñski, S. Hoszowski, I. Gieysztorowa, A. Szczypiorski and E. Vielrose on the basis of the land tax, individual taxes and the real estate tax. The Crown Treasury Commission, acting within the framework of economic and political reform towards the end of the 18th century, conducted a census covering the burghers and peasants; the results of this census were described by F.J. Moszyriski. Population censuses with a broad demographic and socio-economic programme were held in 1808 and 1810 in the Duchy of Warsaw, but their results were described and published after World War I. In the occupied Polish territories Austria and Prussia conducted towards the end of 18th, in the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th century, about a dozen general population censuses in varying degrees of detail. In the territories occupied by Russia a modern-type population census was held in 1897; an evaluation of this census was made by S. Szulc. The Central Statistical Office held two general population censuses between the two world wars, in 1921 and 1931. The results were published in two extensive series entitled: Statystyka Polski (Poland's Statistics). Since World War II four population censuses have been held: in 1946, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Each of them, especially the ones in 1960 and 1970, has heen published in several series. Depending upon the territory covered by the study and the scope and nature of the sources, the populations history of the Polish territories may be divided into four long periods. The first of them lasted from the 10th to the end of the 18th century. Original information and estimates concern mainly three regions: Wielkopolska, Mafopolska, and Mazowsze. The data in the census held by the Crown Treasury Commission in 1791 have a wider territorial reach; moreover, they can be compared with the results of chronologically coinciding censuses in Austria and Prussia conducted in the territories annexed during the first Partition of Poland. The second period lasted from the last decade of the 18th century to the outbreak of World War I. Information is originating from population censuses of the Duchy of Warsaw and of the Polish territories occupied by Prussia and Austria, as well as Russia, but only within the boundaries of the Polish Kingdom as created in 1815. The third period covers the 20 years between the two world wars. Two popula- tion censuses cover the whole area of inter-war Poland. Finally, the fourth period covers the years from World War II to the present time, and the source data pertain to the entire area of People's Polish Republic. Let us consider the population growth in the particular periods. During the first eight centuries of the present millennium the population of the Polish territories for which the data are more readily available, covering approxi- mately the area of 146 thousand square kilometers, increased • from about 0.690 million to 4 milion (Table 1). This area coincided approximately with three regions of Poland: Wielkopolska, Maiopolska and Mazowsze. In wars of a long duration population losses were serious; for instance, in the years 1650—1660 they numbered 25 per cent of the total population, and in the first two decades of the 18th century amounted to about 12 per cent of the population as it had been at the turn of the century. However, the annual rate of population growth was gradually rising. While in the first centuries of this millennium this rate amounted probably to about 0.2 percent, for the years 1720—1790 it is estimated at 0,5 per cent. In these three regions of Poland population density doubled between the 10th century and the middle of the 14th;.during the next five centuries it increased more than threefold. It can be seen from Chart 1.1 that around 1340 the most densely populated region was the southern area, Maiopolska and Silesia, where density amounted to between 10 and 30 persons per square kilometer. In the West and in the North, in Wielkopolska, Pomerania and Mazowsze, the population density fluctuated between 6 and 20 persons per kilometer. Finally, to the East of the middle part of the Vistula river there were 1 to 6 persons per square kilometer. Around 1790 the differences in population density, which was over three times as nigh were analogous, (Chart 1.2). In Mafopolska and in Silesia, according to the findings of historians, the density was the highest, amounting to between 30 and over 70 persons per square kilometer. In Wielkopolska,in Pomerania and the north western part of the Mazowsze there were between 20 and 50 persons per one square kilometer. In the northern and eastern territories the population did not exceed 20 persons per kilometer. In the territory of the Duchy of Warsaw, established during the Napoleonic 8 30 Chart. 1.1. Population density in the Polish territories around, the year 1340 wars, there were 4,334 thousand inhabitants, according to the census of 1810. In Wielkopolska the population density averaged about 29 persons per square kilo- meter, fluctuating in the particular counties from 20 to 46 persons per square kilometer. During the 19th century the population of the territories taken away from Poland by Austria and Prussia and of the Polish'Kingdom itself more than doubled, amounting to 10 mi'lion around the middle of the century. Up to 20 inhabitants per square kilometer over 70 inhabitants per square kilometer Chart 1.2. Population density in the Polish territories around the year 1790 During the quarter century from 1790—1816 the annual rate of population growth amounted; to 0,3 per cent, and from then on up to 1850 it rose to 1.2 per cent; in the second half of the 19th century it rose further to 1.7 per cent. The population density increased from 28 persons per square kilometer at the turn of the 18th and the 19th centuries to 65 persons at the turn of the 19th and 20th. An important factor in the population growth was its natural increase. In the 1870—1914 period, when, first, the mortality level, and about a dozen years later the fertility level began to decline, a demographic revolution took place in a major portion of the Polish territories (Chart 1.3). A considerable part of the natural increase, tremendous for that time, was absorbed by emigration to western Europe, America and Australia.