Examining The Impacts of Hurricane Sandy on Southeast New England: A Serious Wake-up Call for Rhode Island!

National Oceanic and Atmospheric ShallAdministration’s We Begin??? Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, MA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service August and September Our most active months Monthly Tropical Cyclone Distribution

24 20

16 12

Number 8 4 0 June July August September October Month

Tropical Storms Hurricanes Active vs. Inactive Periods 1930s-1950s active vs. 1970s-1980s inactive Southern New England Tropical Cyclone Frequency 1900-2012 12

8

Number 4

0 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Month Hurricanes Tropical Storms The theme of the prevailing summer weather pattern ultimately determines our vulnerability

Point at which New Englanders needs to take action! Common Characteristics

 Every system is undergoing a transition from pure Tropical to “Extra-tropical” (i.e.: winter storm-like) upon approach  Dramatic Jet Stream interactions  Rapid acceleration up the coast  Heavy rainfall usually focused along and west of the storm track  High winds focused east of the track  Storm surges focused east of the track Remarkable Acceleration

 Rapid Average forward motion at land fall: 33 mph / 51 km/hr.  The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 made the trip from Cape Hatteras, NC to Providence, RI in 8 hours!  Forward speed at landfall was at least 51 mph/82 km- hr and estimated as high as 60 mph/97 km-hr

Interaction with the Westerlies

Hurricane Carol (t-48 hrs) Jet prepositioned to the east!

Hurricane Floyd (t-48 hrs) Jet prepositioned to the northwest! Interaction with the Westerlies

Hurricane Carol (t-24 hrs) Acceleration Commences!

Hurricane Floyd (t-24 hrs) Acceleration Commences! Interaction with the Westerlies

Hurricane Carol (t=0 Landfall) Northward motion ~ 39 mph

Hurricane Floyd (t-0 hrs Landfall) North-northeast motion ~ 33 mph Heavy Rainfall

 Two types of distributions  Along/Right of Track  Left of Track  Some systems “changed phase” as they turned and accelerated northeastward  Nearly ½ of all our storms produced small stream/river flooding in the region!  Average rainfall 6-8 inches  Slower movers have produced record rainfall  Diane ’55 – 18.15 inches in Westfield MA Irene – A Classic Example!

 Corridor of torrential rainfall on the west side  Widespread 9 to 15 inches of rainfall  Isolated >15 inches in the Catskill Mountains of New York State  Forced by the jet stream, the tremendous tropical moisture plume and the topography  Bands of fast moving showers on the east side  <3 inches of rainfall Historical Perspective Heavy Rainfall Distribution Historical Perspective Widespread Flooding/Flash Flooding City of Woonsocket, RI – Diane 1955 Flooded downtown “social/business” district

Providence Journal Route 44 west – Putnam, CT Tropical Storm Diane, 1955 18.15 inches of rain in 1 day Westfield, MA

USACE NE Division High Winds

Public Safety Hazards after Bob August 19th, 1991 Providence Journal

Hurricane Carol Wind Damage, at Bonnet Shores in Narragansett RI. Storm Surge Characteristics

 Tremendous storm surges on south facing bays  Most significant “surge” occurs within one hour of landfall  Wave run-up causes coastal flooding to commence ~ 6 hours before the eye arrives  In spite of the storm’s rapid acceleration  Surges of 12 to 15 feet have been observed  Upper Part of Narragansett Bay  Immediate south coast experiences somewhat less surge but devastating wave action  Sandy was a great example Key Surge Producing Factors: Intensity-Forward Motion-Angle of Approach

Area of Maximum Winds Storm Surge – Potential Simulated Cat 3 moving NNE at 30 mph

11-14 foot surge

7 to 9 foot surge Storm Surge – Potential Simulated Cat 3 moving N at 30 mph

13-16 foot surge

8 to 11 foot surge Storm Surge – Potential Simulated Cat 3 moving N at 60 mph

15-20 foot surge

11 to 18 foot surge Debris line #2 – Significant debris pushed into properties causing structural damage

Debris line #1 – homes destroyed and dislodged from foundations

Oakland Beach Note the inland extent of structural damage! Loss of homes, businesses and property

Misquamicut Village, Westerly, RI - after Hurricane Carol Loss of homes, businesses and property

Misquamicut Village, Westerly, RI - after Hurricane Carol Now Consider The Past Two Seasons:

IRENE SANDY  Irene: Widespread wind damage & power disruption but we were spared flooding rains & significant coastal flooding o “It’s all about the wind and rain!”  Sandy: Significant coastal flooding but with less wind and little if any rain o “It’s all about the coastal flooding!”

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, MA Sandy: A Perfect Storm of Sorts  Formed in the western Caribbean o Not at all unusual for late October  Encountered a very deep trough of Low Pressure in the eastern United States and very strong High Pressure moving southward from the Canadian Maritimes o A winter-type dual jet stream set up (classic for a New England Hurricane) o Captured Sandy & blocked her attempt to race out to sea

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, MA Irene’s Winds vs. Sandy’s Winds

IRENE’s Winds Sandy’s Winds

Hurricane Force Wind Gusts

Image: R .Hart, FSU

* Irene’s winds were predominantly from the southeast • Sandy’s were mostly northeast – except southern RI late Monday afternoon National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s • DifferenceNational Weather between Service widespread damage vs. scattered shorter duration damage Southeast Vs. Northeast Wind Direction What a difference it makes!

 RI is not “weathered” for southeast high wind events o Nor is our vegetation! Wind Frequency and Average Speed by Direction August through October

http://windhistory.com

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, MA Unusually Long Duration Southeast Fetch Damaging Waves, Multiple Tide Cycles & a 4-5 ft Storm Surge  Southeast swells built on 2 days of southeast winds were driven right into the south coast of RI o Impacted Multiple Tide Cycles – worst of which was Monday night o 15-30 foot seas resulted in relentless pounding surf which first weakened then obliterated the 6-10 foot dunes along parts of the coast o Storm surge of 4-5 feet atop a “middle-of-the-road” astronomical tide produce a total water level (storm tide) of 9.6 feet; One foot shy of Hurricane Bob in ’91 o What she lacked in intensity she made up for in duration!

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Frontal Erosion 1939-2012 - Browning Cottages, Moonstone Beach, RI

2012 House moved to Upland

1951

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Image courtesy of J. Freedman & J. Bothroyd Superstorm Sandy - Browning Cottages

30 Oct 2012

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Nationalhttp:// Weatherfema.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap= Service What should we be expecting on Atlantic Ave, Westerly, RI?

USACE Hurricane Inundation Maps - RI & E coast MA recently updated, Buzz. Bay = June/July - MA/RI maps & GIS layers are available at: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s - http://www.nae.usace.army.mil/projects/hes/ National Weather Service On the east end – the Dunes did their job!

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service There’s a reason why that step ends their!

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service What did it look like?

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service What should we be expecting on Atlantic Ave, Westerly, RI?

USACE Hurricane Inundation Maps - RI & E coast MA recently updated, Buzz. Bay = June/July - MA/RI maps & GIS layers are available at: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s - http://www.nae.usace.army.mil/projects/hes/ National Weather Service What did it look like in 1954?

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Area Pre-Sandy 2012

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Homes floated off foundations

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Makes me wonder how many homes are not anchored down!

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Preparedness: What we need to be asking ourselves

 Can we stand on our own feet for 48-72 hours after a major hurricane strike?  Need to be self-sustaining for a period of time before federal resources swing into action  You won’t be the only ones requesting help  The more pre-planning you do now the less stressful the event will be Preparedness: What we need to be asking ourselves

 Are we ready to deal with widespread and long duration loss of utilities  Utility power could be lost for >3 weeks  Consider Gloria – 1985 as a Cat 1 leaving parts of the state without power for over 2 weeks  Loss of phone/communication  Carol – 1954 took the whole state down What can we do? Have a family hurricane plan!

 Have a family hurricane  Consider prescription meds plan  You and family members  Actions you will take before,  Consider tanking up the during, after family autos  Are you in an evacuation zone?  Consider getting some money out of the bank  Consider shelter first   Do I need to evacuation? Tank up the ole gas grill!  Where do I go?  Non-perishable foods  When should I leave?  Phone numbers to be  If staying at home reached at – both home  Loss of electricity so have and at work battery operated radio, TV, flashlights What can we do? Have a family hurricane plan!

 Boat owners http://www.riema.ri.gov/preparedness/evacuation  Know what your marina’s plan is for storms  When will I pull/secure  Give yourself time  Have insurance papers in order – including photos and phone numbers  Have those trees trimmed and the dead branches removed!  Get outdoor “stuff” inside  Tape your action plan to the back of a kitchen cabinet so you can get to it quickly when the storm threatens

Rhode Island Was Spared The Worst

IRENE SANDY  We are a tremendously vulnerable State o Planning is of the utmost importance – it must reflect storm events that will undoubtedly far exceed the damage from Irene & Sandy  Shifts in precipitation frequency o Steadily increasing annual rainfall and frequency of heavy rain events o 1% / 100 yr storm in the 1960s is now a 2% / 50 yr event! o Small urban watersheds (Pawtuxet for example) have limited capacity to deal with these shifts = increased flooding over time (March 2010) Rhode Island Was Spared The Worst

IRENE SANDY  We cannot ignore sea level rise impacts o A higher “starting point” means that a storm of lesser severity will be capable of producing damage to that of a stronger storm o Lunar Equinox tides now producing localized coastal flooding o Consider: Category 2 Hurricane producing inundation & damage comparable to what a Category 3 would have done 50 years ago! o A “side-swipe” from Sandy produced damage on the south coast comparable to a Category 1 to 2 type Hurricane! Examining The Impacts of Hurricane Sandy on Rhode Island: A serious wake-up call!

THANK YOU!

David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge & Resident Hurricaneologist National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather ServiceNOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center Taunton, MA