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The Development of a Hydrodynamics-Based Storm Severity Index

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The Development of a Hydrodynamics-Based Storm Severity Index UNF Digital Commons UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations Student Scholarship 2015 The evelopmeD nt of a Hydrodynamics-Based Storm Severity Index Gabriel Francis Todaro University of North Florida Suggested Citation Todaro, Gabriel Francis, "The eD velopment of a Hydrodynamics-Based Storm Severity Index" (2015). UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 601. https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd/601 This Master's Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at UNF Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of UNF Digital Commons. For more information, please contact Digital Projects. © 2015 All Rights Reserved THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HYDRODYNAMICS-BASED STORM SEVERITY INDEX by Gabriel Todaro A thesis submitted to the School of Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering UNIVERSITY OF NORTH FLORIDA SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING November, 2015 Unpublished work © Gabriel Todaro The thesis "Development of a Hydrodynamics-Based Storm Severity Index" submitted by Gabriel Todaro in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering has been Approved by the thesis committee: Date: ___________________________ _______________________ Dr. William R. Dally, Ph.D., P.E. ______________________________ _______________________ Dr. Don T. Resio, Ph.D. __________________________ _______________________ Dr. Christopher J. Brown, Ph.D., P.E. Accepted for the School of Engineering: Dr. Murat Tiryakioglu, Ph.D., C.Q.E. Director of the School of Engineering Accepted for the College of Computing, Engineering, and Construction: Dr. Mark Tumeo, Ph.D., P.E. Dean of the College of Computing, Engineering, and Construction Accepted for the University: Dr. John Kantner, Ph.D. Dean of the Graduate School CONTENTS CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. x ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 12 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 28 CHAPTER 4: HURRICANE SANDY ......................................................................................... 34 4.1 CAPE MAY COUNTY .............................................................................................. 39 4.2 ATLANTIC COUNTY ............................................................................................... 41 4.3 SOUTH OCEAN COUNTY ....................................................................................... 43 4.4 NORTH OCEAN COUNTY ...................................................................................... 45 4.5 SOUTH MONMOUTH COUNTY............................................................................. 49 4.6 NORTH MONMOUTH COUNTY ............................................................................ 52 4.7 ANALYSIS OF STORM SEVERITY INDEX MODEL DURING HURRICANE SANDY ..................................................................................................................................... 55 CHAPTER 5: OCEAN CITY ....................................................................................................... 61 5.1 DESCRIPTION OF OCEAN CITY STORMS .......................................................... 69 5.2 UNKNOWN STORM (1990) ..................................................................................... 71 5.3 HURRICANE BOB (1991) ........................................................................................ 73 5.4 JANUARY NOR’EASTER (1992) ............................................................................ 75 5.5 MARYLAND ICE STORM (1994) ........................................................................... 77 5.6 CHRISTMAS NOR’EASTER (1994) ........................................................................ 79 5.7 NORTH AMERICAN BLIZZARD (1996) ................................................................ 81 iii 5.8 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE (1996) ................................................................. 83 5.9 EL NINO WINTER (1998) ........................................................................................ 85 5.10 HURRICANE FLOYD (1999) ................................................................................. 87 5.11 TROPICAL STORM HELENE (2000) .................................................................... 89 5.12 HURRICANE ISABEL (2003) ................................................................................ 91 5.13 ANALYSIS OF STORM SEVERITY INDEX MODEL AT OCEAN CITY ......... 93 CHAPTER 6: GULF OF MEXICO STORMS ........................................................................... 102 6.1 HURRICANE GEORGES (1998) ............................................................................ 104 6.2 HURRICANE IVAN (2004)..................................................................................... 106 6.3 HURRICANE ELENA (1984) ................................................................................. 109 6.4 HURRICANE OPAL (1995) .................................................................................... 111 6.5 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY (2012) ...................................................................... 113 6.6 ANALYSIS OF STORM SEVERITY INDEX MODEL FOR GULF OF MEXICO STORMS ................................................................................................................................. 115 CHAPTER 7: TWENTY-FOUR POINT STORM SEVERITY SCALE ................................... 117 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. 124 APPENDIX A: HURRICANE SANDY ..................................................................................... 128 APPENDIX B: OCEAN CITY ................................................................................................... 139 APPENDIX C: GULF OF MEXICO .......................................................................................... 181 APPENDIX D: TWENTY-FOUR POINT SCALE RESULTS ................................................. 192 APPENDIX E: RUNNING THE STORM SEVERITY INDEX MODEL ................................ 196 APPENDIX F: EROSION .......................................................................................................... 202 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 205 VITA ............................................................................................................................... 209 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: The Saffir-Simpson Scale (National Science Foundation, 2007)................... 17 Figure 2.2: HSI Wind Radii Size Points (Impact Weather, 2008). ................................... 18 Figure 2.3: Illustration of Bruun Rule (Palma, 2015). ...................................................... 21 Figure 2.4: Surge Prediction of the Surge Scale from Irish and Resio (2010). ................ 25 Figure 3.1: Flowchart of Storm Severity Index Model Methodology .............................. 33 Figure 4.1: Water Levels during Hurricane Sandy at Bergen Point, Atlantic City, and Cape May. ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 4.2: New Jersey Beach Profile Sites (Google.inc, 2015). ..................................... 37 Figure 4.3: NJBPN Site 248 Conditions and Results. ...................................................... 47 Figure 4.4: NJBPN Site 167 Conditions and Results. ...................................................... 51 Figure 4.5: Energy Flux Index for each Location during Sandy. ..................................... 55 Figure 4.6: Energy Flux Index Numbers compared to the Distance from Landfall. ........ 56 Figure 4.7: Overwash Volumes from Sandy..................................................................... 58 Figure 4.8: Volume of Inundation at each Site during Sandy........................................... 59 Figure 5.1: Locations of Ocean City Surveys (Google.inc, 2015).................................... 62 Figure 5.2: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 1. .......................................... 63 Figure 5.3: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 4. .......................................... 63 Figure 5.4: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 7. .......................................... 64 Figure 5.5: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 10. ........................................ 64 Figure 5.6: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 13. ........................................ 65 Figure 5.7: Progression of Beach Profiles surveyed at OC 16. ........................................ 65 Figure 5.8: Progression
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