Carolina Sky Watcher NOAA has been issuing hurricane seasonal for the last six years and they have been very accurate. They are based on NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy – or ACE –Index. The ACE index measures the collective strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes in a given region. It has proven to be highly predict- able and is a key forecast parameter for NOAA hurricane outlooks.

National Weather Service, Newport, NC Vol. 11, Number 2 (#39) Jun 1, 2004 - Nov 30, 2004 For 2004, NOAA predicts an above normal hurricane season. The outlook calls for * 12-15 tropical storms * 6-8 becoming hurricanes – 2004 at least 74 mph winds * 2-4 becoming major Hurricane hurricanes (Categories 3- 5) – at least 115 mph winds.

Season Based on historical data, similar seasons have averaged two to three land-falling hurricanes in the continental During the prior, relatively in- United States, and 1-2 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. active, 1970-1994 period, hurri- cane seasons averaged only 9 This above normal forecast is continuing the trend of above normal activity since 1995. Between 1995-2003, tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, Atlantic hurricane seasons have averaged 13 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. An and 2 major hurricanes. Only above-normal season features a lot of activity in the deep tropics of the Atlantic.. These become hurricanes three seasons during this entire and major hurricanes, and have general westward tracks toward the United States. This is why we have so period were classified as above many more hurricane landfalls in the U.S. during above-normal seasons. normal (1980, 1988, 1989), the U.S. compared to seven in the last nine years. These inactive sea- However, whatever the seasonal outlook, just ONE land-falling hurricane or tropical storm can kill hundreds sons featured fewer hurricanes if people are not prepared. PREPAREDNESS IS KEY. People living in Eastern North Carolina and else- forming in the deep tropics, and where along the Atlantic and Gulf coast states must stay alert, listen to NOAA weather forecasts and take fewer hurricane landfalls in common sense measures to protect their property, and most importantly, their lives. Last year, there were two hurri- By Tom Kriehn canes that made landfall in the United States, Claudette, a cate- A A Y S M W W A T T G T U T F S G G X Z gory 1 hurricane hit the Central performance during Isabel is Isabel was a well-behaved E M G A M N A T I E S B R K C W B I W D Texas coast on July 15, and Isa- X S L N J W I G J N K O U Z Z J E H B I considered a model of success. storm, meaning her steering W M A L I S A T T Y P M H J B L K P T J Hurricane bel, a category 2 hurricane, that Forecasts issued for Isabel had currents were well defined and made landfall on September 18 P M C T A N X T R I P I S A B E L X N C Word Search track and timing errors that changed little. Isabel validated L M I W E W R B C A G T R T Z K V H Y H along the Outer Banks. Na- were well below the average our new 5-day forecast, which D W P Z Z L E A T H I O G O E E U F Q V How many of these words can you find? tional Weather Service errors over the past 10 years. was only off by 137 miles at C T O X X L L Y W N M N P R G E L N E F day five. The average 48-hour T B R N F S S I E E I L B N N O S C F X W A T H T J N N T D L A O A Y D P K D G In this Issue... error for Isabel was only 68 miles, which is 173 miles more D K A O K D S E O E E I C D N H B F S U 2004 Hurricane Season 1 accurate than the 10-year aver- E G R U S M R O T S S I K O Y D E O Z X BAROMETER DEPRESSION DISTURBANCE U M T O M A L R M S R M B E Q M S Z J T 2004 Hurricane Season (continued) 2 age. Our ability to track and EVACUATE EXTRATROPICAL EYE S H X I B F T L E R P A I S Z U V G K D EYEWALL FLOODING FLOYD Hurricane Climatology 3 predict movement of storms is Y N E C N A B R U T S I D A O Q F I C J HAZARDS HAZEL HIGHWINDS better than ever. As a result, Y S P H T Y P H O O N R M A O Y R X J G HURRICANE ISABEL RADAR Anniversary of Two NC Hurricanes 4-5 countless lives are saved and U T P U C E T A U C A V E P R B M Y L V RAINBANDS SATELLITES STORM SURGE Hurricanes Can Kill 6 millions of dollars in financial T N S F D I Z C Y Z M T J T N H E G K W TORNADOES TYPHOON WARNING U Q W U I H K U A S D X O X J F U X O G WATCH TROPICAL STORMS Hurricane Family Plan 7 loss is prevented. E Q X Z O R D H I Y A T R Z D B H O E X

2 Carolina Sky Watcher Carolina Sky Watcher Hurricane Climatology of Eastern 5 and 50: The anniversaries of two of North North Carolina from 1850-2000 Carolina’s most Destructive Hurricanes:

Hurricane Events by Magnitude Name: Hurricane Hazel Date: October 15, 1954 Category 4

35 Hurricane Hazel was first spotted east of the Windward Islands on October 5. It moved through the islands later that day as a hurricane, then it moved westward 30 over the southern Caribbean Sea through October 8. Hazel turned north and acceler-

25 ated on October 15, making landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near the North Caro- lina-South Carolina border. Subsequent rapid motion over the next 12 hours took 20 31 the storm from the coast across the eastern United States into southeastern Canada 26 as it became extratropical. High winds occurred over large portions of the eastern 15 United States. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina reported a peak wind gust of 106 mph,

10 and winds were estimated at 130 to 150 mph along the coast between Myrtle Beach 12 and Cape Fear, North Carolina. 5 2 Impacts: Hazel was responsible for 95 deaths and $281 million in damage in the 0 United States, 100 deaths and $100 million in damage in Canada, and an estimated CAT 1 CAT 2 CAT 3 CAT 4 400 to 1000 deaths in Haiti. The brunt of the storm hit during highest lunar tide of the year, with an 18-foot storm surge (in some areas). Many believe it was the Figure 1: Total number of hurricanes to affect Eastern North Carolina per category of the Saffir- Simpson scale. most destructive hurricane to hit North Carolina with record rainfall. Hurricane Ha- zel's path of Tropica l Cy lcone Eve nt s by De cade destruction 1850-2000 spread over 2,000 miles. 25 18 8 0 s Massive de- struction to 20 the beaches 1950s of New

15 Hanover and Brunswick counties 10 from tidal surge. Total

5 1980s 19 2 0 s Dollar Dam- age: Esti- mated $136 0 million s s s s 0s 0 1990s 1980 1970 1960s 1950s 1940s 193 1920 19 10 s 19 0 1890s 1880 1870s 1860s 1850s (North Carolina damage) Deaths: 19 (North Carolina) Injuries: 200 (North Carolina) Structural Damage: 15,000 homes and structures destroyed. 39,000 structures Figure 2: Trends in hurricane strikes by decade across Eastern North Carolina. damaged.

4 3 Carolina Sky Watcher Carolina Sky Watcher Name: Hurricane Floyd Date: September 16, 1999 Category 2 Floyd was first detected as a tropical wave that moved off the African coast on September 2. The system developed into a tropical depression over the tropical Atlantic on September 7. Moving steadily Hurricanes are best known for coast. Forecast models also do a west-northwestward, the system became a tropical strong winds…heavy rain and good job of showing when the storm the next day and a hurricane on the 10th. It storm surge flooding…however swells will impact the region, became a Category 4 hurricane on September 13 as there is another feature they pro- and show how large they will it approached the central Bahama Islands. This was followed by a gradual turn to duce that leads to fatalities most be. National Weather Service every year…rip currents. Hurri- meteorologists use this informa- the north-northeast, which brought the center to the North Carolina coast near canes produce swells that propa- tion when issuing the Surf Zone Cape Fear on September 16 as a Category 2 hurricane. Floyd continued north- gate hundreds of miles from the Forecast which includes a rip northeastward along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic into New England, where the center of the cyclone. Many times current forecast during the storm became extratropical on the 17th. The remnants of Floyd merged with a these swells will reach the beaches beach season. large non-tropical low on September 19. several days before the Hurricane approaches the coast. Rip currents may look like IMPACT frothy, choppy rivers flowing Floyd will be The strong winds in a Hurricane away from the shore out toward most remem- produce large waves that spread the ocean. If you see a rip cur- bered for its out in all directions from the cen- rent never enter the water at that rainfall. The ter of the storm. Strong, long lived location. They tend to be most hurricanes tend to produce the dangerous approximately 2 combination of largest swells that can propagate hours before and 2 hours fol- Floyd and a out over 1000 miles from the lowing low tide. Below is a pic- frontal system storm. These swells typically ture of a rip current taken from over the east- move at speeds between 20 and 25 the Field Research Facility at ern United mph. When these fast moving Duck North Carolina. States pro- waves reach the coast they tend to duced wide- break much higher then typical By Bob Frederick spread rainfalls waves and push water in excess of 10 further onshore. The wa- inches from ter that is pushed onshore North Carolina northeastward, with amounts as high as 19.06 inches in Wilming- will then try and flow ton, North Carolina and 13.70 inches at Brewster, New York. These rains, aided by back toward the ocean, rains from Tropical Storm Dennis two weeks earlier, caused widespread severe and that is what leads to flooding that caused the majority of the $3 to 6 billion in damage caused by Floyd. rip currents. These swells These floods also were responsible for 50 of the 56 deaths caused by Floyd in the can be hard to observe as United States. Floyd also caused damage in the Bahamas, with one death re- they typically do not ported. Impacts: North Carolina: 51 deaths; 7000 homes destroyed; 17,000 break until almost on the homes uninhabitable; 56,000 homes damaged; most roads east of I-95 flooded; beach. Fortunately, these swells can be detected in Tar River crests 24 feet above flood stage; over 1500 people rescued from flooded advance by the National areas; over 500,000 customers without electricity at some point; 10,000 people Data Buoy Centers net- housed in temporary shelters; much of Duplin and Greene Counties under water; work of offshore buoys severe agricultural damage throughout eastern North Carolina. before they reach the By Sarah Jamison

5 6 Carolina Sky Watcher Carolina Sky Watcher the wind out of your house as Do You Have a Family Plan well as protect your windows from breaking. Also be sure to for a Hurricane?????? reinforce your garage door. If you are asked to evacuate, you If you do not have a family should do so without delay. plan in the event of a hurricane, ♠ At least 1 gallon of water THIS IS FOR YOUR PROTEC- you should strongly consider per person per day for 3 to TION. You may also want to making one. People who have 7 days. evacuate even if not asked to do been stranded by hurricanes or ♠ About 3 to 7 days worth of so if the area around your home National Weather Service is prone to flooding. It is very 533 Roberts Road have been adversely affected non-perishable food. Newport, NC 28570 Mailing by hurricanes in the past have ♠ Blankets and pillows. important that you evaluated Address wished that they had made ♠ Seasonal clothing includ- your homes vulnerability. You Goes preparations prior to the onset ing rain gear and sturdy could become cut off to the out- Here of the event. Some of the af- shoes. side world by flood waters, or fects of hurricanes can cause ♠ Special items for children falling trees may threaten your major interruptions to our nor- and the elderly. family. Also it is very important mal activities that we take for ♠ First aid bandages, medi- to remember that in areas that granted. Heavy rainfall from cine, and prescription have been told to evacuate, vari- tropical systems (not just Hur- drugs. ous emergency services may be ricanes but Tropical Storms as ♠ Toiletries. hindered, meaning that fire, well) can cause major flooding, ♠ Flashlights with batteries. EMS, and police may not be able high winds can cause trees to ♠ A battery powered radio to reach you. Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the dam- fall, which could land on your and NOAA Weather Ra- In This Issue... Hurricane Season house or car and power lines to dio All Hazards. age to property from hurricanes come down with electric ser- ♠ Cash (banks and ATM’s are responsibilities that are vice interrupted for up to two may be closed for ex- shared by all. The most impor- Carolina Sky Watcher Vol. 11, Number 2 (#39) Jun 1, 2004 - Nov 30, 2004 or three weeks depending on tended periods). tant thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Editor: Dawn Mills your location. ♠ Keys. You can monitor the latest weather conditions This quarterly newsletter You should keep a written plan ♠ Toys, books, and games. By Wayne Shaffer around the area, as well as our forecasts on: Comments concerning this is for Skywarn Spotters, ♠ and be sure to share it not only Important documents in a publication or questions NOAA Weather Radio schools, emergency with your family, but also with waterproof container about the National Weather managers, media, and your friends and neighbors. (insurance papers). Service can be directed to us. other interested parties in That way everyone will know ♠ Tools. We invite submissions for New Bern Transmitter KEC-84 162.400 MHz the 15 county area in Hatteras Transmitter KIG-77 162.475 MHz what you are going to do when ♠ A vehicle with its fuel inclusion in this publication Mamie Transmitter WWH-26 162.425 MHz east- central North a hurricane threatens. tank filled. Contact us at: Warsaw Transmitter KXI-95 162.425 MHz Carolina served by the

♠ Pet care items. National Weather Service National Weather Creating a disaster supply kit 533 Roberts Road Service Office in There are several things you Available 24 Hours a Day! Newport, NC 28570 Newport, NC. There are certain items that you should do to reduce your homes need to have in your kit regard- vulnerability. Be sure to pick up Phone: less of where you ride the hur- all loose items in and around (252) 223-5327

ricane out. A disaster kit is a your yard such as garbage cans, This publication, as useful tool when you evacuate, FAX: toys, lawn furniture, potted (252) 223-3673 well as all of our fore- as well as making your family plants, and so on. If you wish to cast products, are also as safe as possible in your cover your windows be sure to E-mail: available on our home. Your kit should include use hurricane shutters or at least [email protected] internet page at:

the following… 5/8 inch plywood. This will keep www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/

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