Iraq in security food Tracking 2015 June — 8 Bulletin

2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

them). to closed are Kerbala and (Babylon

restrictions accessing neighbouring provinces provinces neighbouring accessing restrictions

2015). New IDPs from Anbar face serious serious face Anbar from IDPs New 2015).

), June June ), (DTM Matrix Tracking Displacement

IOM IOM ( individuals) (13,170 and individuals)

Baghdad (28,110 individuals), Anbar (16,236 (16,236 Anbar individuals), (28,110 Baghdad

- governorates three by hosted were IDPs

the city and its outskirts. The majority of those those of majority The outskirts. its and city the

300,000 individuals have been displaced from from displaced been have individuals 300,000

of hostilities in in early April, nearly nearly April, early in Ramadi in hostilities of

Din governorates. Since the beginning beginning the Since governorates. Din - al Salah

Security Forces and armed groups in Anbar and and Anbar in groups armed and Forces Security

homes as a result of fighting between the Iraqi Iraqi the between fighting of result a as homes

June. Many of the newly displaced fled their their fled displaced newly the of Many June.

the large numbers of IDPs and returnees in in returnees and IDPs of numbers large the

Humanitarian needs continued to rise due to to due rise to continued needs Humanitarian

2015). June (IOM), Migration

was limited (International Organization for for Organization (International limited was

areas under armed opposition groups’ control control groups’ opposition armed under areas

2015 June - (FCS) Score Consumption Food – Iraq 1: Map

access to the estimated 5.1 million people in in people million 5.1 estimated the to access

). Around 2.2 million people in need of emergency assistance were beyond the reach of aid agencies, and and agencies, aid of reach the beyond were assistance emergency of need in people million 2.2 Around ). Plan

these more than 3 million were IDPs and 3.7 million were children ( children were million 3.7 and IDPs were million 3 than more these OCHA 2015 Iraq Humanitarian Response Response Humanitarian Iraq 2015 OCHA

people were declared in urgent need of humanitarian assistance compared with 5.2 million in February. Of Of February. in million 5.2 with compared assistance humanitarian of need urgent in declared were people

internal unrest and displacement continued to compound the humanitarian crisis in Iraq. Some 8.2 million million 8.2 Some Iraq. in crisis humanitarian the compound to continued displacement and unrest internal

Intense armed conflict continued throughout May, with particularly severe violence in Anbar. Anbar. in violence severe particularly with May, throughout continued conflict armed Intense In June, conflict, conflict, June, In

Current events update events Current

the South and in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). (KRI). Iraq of Region Kurdistan the in and South the

 In spite of conflict, the 2015 wheat crop production levels were higher compared to 2014 in in 2014 to compared higher were levels production crop wheat 2015 the conflict, of spite In

Fighting hunger worldwide hunger Fighting

having received a full PDS ration in June than in the previous month. month. previous the in than June in ration PDS full a received having

 Public Distribution System (PDS) access remains low, with fewer households reporting reporting households fewer with low, remains access (PDS) System Distribution Public

affected district of . of district affected - conflict

Ninewa. In Anbar, food prices are very high, and food supply is extremely limited in the the in limited extremely is supply food and high, very are prices food Anbar, In Ninewa.

 food terms of trade declined in Diyala and and Diyala in declined trade of terms food - to - wage and increased prices food June, In

month.

of IDP households reported not having enough food or money to buy food for the same same the for food buy to money or food enough having not reported households IDP of

in five of them (21%) reported ‘poor’ or ‘borderline’ consumption in June. Two in five (40%) (40%) five in Two June. in consumption ‘borderline’ or ‘poor’ reported (21%) them of five in

 Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are the most affected by food insecurity. More than one one than More insecurity. food by affected most the are (IDPs) persons displaced Internally

conflict. by affected directly been have which governorates,

deterioration in food consumption and coping indicators, especially in Anbar and Ninewa Ninewa and Anbar in especially indicators, coping and consumption food in deterioration

Analysis and Mapping (mVAM) trend data collected from March to June points to a steady steady a to points June to March from collected data trend (mVAM) Mapping and Analysis

 Food insecurity escalated in Iraq in the second quarter of 2015. WFP’s mobile Vulnerability Vulnerability mobile WFP’s 2015. of quarter second the in Iraq in escalated insecurity Food

Highlights

July 2015: Trend of increasing food insecurity persists in Anbar and Ninewa and Anbar in persists insecurity food increasing of Trend 2015: July

IRAQ

2015 July – 8 Bulletin

Iraq in security food Tracking 2015 June — 8 Bulletin

2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

. online

Further details on survey methodology are available available are methodology survey on details Further

using a simplified market questionnaire. questionnaire. market simplified a using

8, iaa 9, ikk 1) n Slh Al Salah and (13) (9), Diyala (8), Din (13) (13) Din -

locations in the governorates of Anbar (8), Ninewa Ninewa (8), Anbar of governorates the in locations

Muslim Aid, information was obtained in June from 51 51 from June in obtained was information Aid, Muslim

interviews. In collaboration with Islamic Relief and and Relief Islamic with collaboration In interviews.

northern , using live telephone telephone live using Iraq, of governorates northern

has been collecting market information in central and and central in information market collecting been has

In addition to household food security indicators, WFP WFP indicators, security food household to addition In

telephone interview responses were received. were responses interview telephone

2 shows the cellphone towers from which live live which from towers cellphone the shows 2

Korek’s database living in Iraq’s 18 governorates. Map Map governorates. 18 Iraq’s in living database Korek’s

is monitoring a panel of respondents drawn from from drawn respondents of panel a monitoring is

through Korek, a major mobile network operator. WFP WFP operator. network mobile major a Korek, through

collected from a sample of 1,103 respondents, respondents, 1,103 of sample a from collected

telephone interviews throughout Iraq. Data was was Data Iraq. throughout interviews telephone

household food security monitoring using live live using monitoring security food household

June 2015, mVAM conducted the fourth round of of round fourth the conducted mVAM 2015, June

2015 June - collection data mVAM Iraq 2. Map

Methodology Methodology collection data remote mVAM -

displaced respondents, including protein including respondents, displaced - non to vegetables. and tubers cereals, dairy), and meat (eggs, foods rich -

addition, IDP households reported a higher reduction in the consumption frequency of most food groups compared compared groups food most of frequency consumption the in reduction higher a reported households IDP addition,

Qadissiya are explained by the relatively large proportion of households surveyed in June that are displaced. In In displaced. are that June in surveyed households of proportion large relatively the by explained are Qadissiya

displaced respondents. The poor food insecurity indicators noted in Wassit and and Wassit in noted indicators insecurity food poor The respondents. displaced - non of percent 4 with compared

households. Indeed, 21 percent of IDP households surveyed in June had ‘poor’ or ‘borderline’ food consumption, consumption, food ‘borderline’ or ‘poor’ had June in surveyed households IDP of percent 21 Indeed, households.

ipae hueod cniud o e osdrby os of n em o cnupin hn non than consumption of terms in off worse considerably be to continued households Displaced displaced displaced -

Consumption of tubers and meat remained similar to May. to similar remained meat and tubers of Consumption

households also reported a slight decrease in frequency of cereals consumption ( consumption cereals of frequency in decrease slight a reported also households 8.9%***). 8.9%***). - ( fruit and 9.2%***) -

28.8%***) and Salah and 28.8%***) - ( Ninewa in particularly - eggs including 9%***). Surveyed Surveyed 9%***). - ( dairy and 26.6%**), - ( Din - al -

n ue a oeal euto ws oe i sree hueods osmto frequency consumption household’s surveyed in noted was reduction overall an June, In rich foods, foods, rich - protein of

(17.5%). Wassit and (18.4%) 2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

households was in Qadissiya (20%), Anbar Anbar (20%), Qadissiya in was households

June May April

of ‘poor’ and ‘borderline’ food consumption consumption food ‘borderline’ and ‘poor’ of

Din

Map 1 shows that in June the highest prevalence prevalence highest the June in that shows 1 Map

Salah al- Salah Ninewa Diyala Anbar Country All

% respondent households with households respondent %

0%

'poor

2%

Ninewa). and

4% food 'borderline' & '

consumption

governorates directly affected by conflict (Anbar (Anbar conflict by affected directly governorates 6%

8%

deterioration in food consumption in the the in consumption food in deterioration

10%

mVAM data for that period points to a a to points period that for data mVAM 12%

14%

‘reporting statistical significance level’). The The level’). significance statistical ‘reporting

16%

on on note methodological (see June** and April 18%

20% and ‘borderline’ consumption increased between between increased consumption ‘borderline’ and

surveyed households (‘All Country’) with ‘poor’ ‘poor’ with Country’) (‘All households surveyed consumption food 'borderline'

As Figure 1 shows, nationally the proportion of of proportion the nationally shows, 1 Figure As of respondent households with 'poor' and and 'poor' with households respondent of Percentage 1: Figure

‘acceptable’ food consumption. Those with ‘poor’ and ‘borderline’ consumption are considered to be food insecure. food be to considered are consumption ‘borderline’ and ‘poor’ with Those consumption. food ‘acceptable’

The FCS classifies households as having ‘poor’, ‘borderline’ or or ‘borderline’ ‘poor’, having as households classifies FCS The consumed. is food frequently how and diets,

is a proxy indicator for food security that measures the diversity of household household of diversity the measures that security food for indicator proxy a is (FCS) Score Consumption Food The

Iraq in patterns consumption Food

). 2015 June 23 - 17 49: No. Report Situation Crisis Iraq OCHA (

City and the surrounding areas, bringing the estimated total number of returnees in District to 16,384 families families 16,384 to District Tikrit in returnees of number total estimated the bringing areas, surrounding the and City

14 and 23 June more than 1,500 families (approximately 9,000 individuals) returned to the recently liberated Tikrit Tikrit liberated recently the to returned individuals) 9,000 (approximately families 1,500 than more June 23 and 14

16,000 individuals were displaced from the districts of Al , Balad, and Al . Meanwhile, between between Meanwhile, Hawija. Al and Samarra Balad, Dujail, Al of districts the from displaced were individuals 16,000

Din, according to the IOM’s DTM preliminary emergency tracking data, between 14 and 25 June over over June 25 and 14 between data, tracking emergency preliminary DTM IOM’s the to according Din, - al Salah In

). OCHA ( district Falluja

abny sub Habbaniya - Al and - al Amiriyat and district, Haditha in particularly shelter, and assistance districts of of districts -

, , n na, Ds ak ai srie icuig dqae ces o yin ad ae fclte, electricity facilities, water and hygiene to access adequate including services basic lack IDPs Anbar, In food food

Iraq in security food Tracking 2015 June — 8 Bulletin

fuel. lack

reportedly an extreme shortage of cooking fuel, so residents are using electricity to cook. Bread is baked at home as bakerie as home at baked is Bread cook. to electricity using are residents so fuel, cooking of shortage extreme an reportedly s s

Residents also reported relying on subsistence farming as much as possible. possible. as much as farming subsistence on relying reported also Residents foods. expensive and preferred there is is there addition, In

Borrowing food or money from relatives and friends was the most commonly used coping strategy, followed by eating less less eating by followed strategy, coping used commonly most the was friends and relatives from money or food Borrowing

related coping strategies, well above the average reported in the rest of Anbar. Anbar. of rest the in reported average the above well strategies, coping related - consumption of use high reported - houses

particularly those living in unfinished buildings and rented rented and buildings unfinished in living those particularly - Haditha in surveyed households data, June mVAM’s to According

Haditha. into back then and

, , area Baghdadi the to convoy military by escorted and organisations various from collected reportedly are items – access physical

ed ed limit and restricted increasingly to due limited very is assistance food Meanwhile, reported. being are bread and flour wheat

, , rice especially – items food of Shortages limited. extremely are Haditha in supplies food that suggest strongly prices high Such

situation. supply food stressed highly a revealing governorate, the within

Anbar: the average price of a standard basket of food items (IQD 4926) was four times higher than in other monitored location monitored other in than higher times four was 4926) (IQD items food of basket standard a of price average the Anbar: s s

for for average overall the than higher significantly as reported again were district Haditha affected - conflict in prices food June, In

Food prices extremely high in the Haditha district of Anbar of district Haditha the in high extremely prices Food 1. Box

In respectively. percent 12 and 3 5, by Din - al Salah and Kirkuk 1), Box (see Anbar in marginally decreased basket

, food price trends were mixed in June. The cost of a standard food food standard a of cost The June. in mixed were trends price food , May in monitoring market WFP with Compared

Markets, food supply and purchasing power purchasing and supply food Markets,

2015 June mVAM, WFP Source: 2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

June May April March June May April March

Salah al-Din Salah Ninewa Diyala Anbar IDP Non-IDP

0% 0%

10%

5%

20%

10%

30%

15%

40%

50% 20%

June 2015 June – March coping, governorates affected 2015 June – March coping,

Percentage of respondents from conflict from respondents of Percentage 2: Figure IDP and IDP respondents respondents IDP and IDP - non of Percentage 3: Figure -

Duhok (22%), Anbar (18%), Ninewa (17%) and Baghdad (12%). Baghdad and (17%) Ninewa (18%), Anbar (22%),

ipaeet uig h rprig eid a a eaiey ih rvlne f eaie food negative of prevalence high relatively a had period reporting the during displacement related coping, such as as such coping, related -

percent of respondents respectively. Moreover, households from governorates most affected by conflict and and conflict by affected most governorates from households Moreover, respectively. respondents of percent

Map 3 shows that a high share of respondents in Wassit and Missan reported using negative coping in June, 38 and 33 33 and 38 June, in coping negative using reported Missan and Wassit in respondents of share high a that shows 3 Map

Source: WFP mVAM, June 2015 2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

rounds. survey mVAM previous three

3, this trend has been consistently evident in the the in evident consistently been has trend this 3,

reported using coping strategies. As shown in Figure Figure in shown As strategies. coping using reported

displaced households, of which only 9 percent percent 9 only which of households, displaced

- non than coping based - consumption using report

**). Again IDPs were significantly more likely to to likely more significantly were IDPs Again **).

taey oprd ih h peiu mnh (36% month previous the with compared strategy

(40%) reported using at least one negative coping coping negative one least at using reported (40%)

In June, a higher percentage of IDP respondents respondents IDP of percentage higher a June, In

2). (Figure Din - al Salah and Diyala in stable more

few months. By contrast, coping trends have been been have trends coping contrast, By months. few

strategies has also steadily increased over the last last the over increased steadily also has strategies

related coping coping related - food negative using households

Anbar and Ninewa governorates, the share of of share the governorates, Ninewa and Anbar

affected affected - conflict in noted consumption worsening of

%*) and also in April (9.7%). In line with the trend trend the with line In (9.7%). April in also and %*)

slight increase from what was reported in May (10.6 (10.6 May in reported was what from increase slight

the use of at least one coping strategy. This is a a is This strategy. coping one least at of use the

to buy food in June and therefore having to resort to to resort to having therefore and June in food buy to

reported not having enough food, or enough money money enough or food, enough having not reported

2015 June

Overall, 13.2 percent of all surveyed respondents respondents surveyed all of percent 13.2 Overall,

reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) (rCSI) Index Strategies Coping reduced – Iraq 3: Map -

Food related coping is on the rise, especially amongst IDPs IDPs amongst especially rise, the on is coping related Food

Iraq in security food Tracking 2015 June — 8 Bulletin

Iraq of Board Grain the and Trade of Ministry Iraq Source:

tons. million 3 around of procurement wheat domestic with line in are flour

areas of Iraq, while PDS wheat flour across northern areas is 100 percent domestic. Reportedly higher deliveries of PDS wheat PDS of deliveries higher Reportedly domestic. percent 100 is areas northern across flour wheat PDS while Iraq, of areas /

nearly exhausted. Imported wheat is reportedly still being blended at around a 30 percent rate for PDS flour milled in southe in milled flour PDS for rate percent 30 a around at blended being still reportedly is wheat Imported exhausted. nearly rn rn

be to appear wheat domestic with blending for used wheat, imported of Supplies requirements. below far deliveries wheat/flour

PDS see to continue Anbar, and Ninewa especially areas, conflict seen, have we as However, June. in nationally wheat/flour of

s s rie delive PDS higher sharply reported Iraq of Board Grain the production, domestic “realised” increased of light in Nonetheless,

sharply. down also

have control of the bulk of this season’s wheat harvest from Ninewa. Government procurement from Salah ad Din and Diyala was was Diyala and Din ad Salah from procurement Government Ninewa. from harvest wheat season’s this of bulk the of control have

o o t likely are forces opposition But tons. million 3.2 approach will farmers local from wheat of procurement government summer,

control of armed groups. This resulted in “net” or realized supplies of around 2.2 million tons from the 2014 harvest. This This harvest. 2014 the from tons million 2.2 around of supplies realized or “net” in resulted This groups. armed of control

However, around 1 million tons of the 2014 wheat harvest were lost because production areas and storage sites were under the the under were sites storage and areas production because lost were harvest wheat 2014 the of tons million 1 around However,

year. on year percent 40 around by increase to projected are supplies wheat domestic “realized” that moreover,

and tons, million 4 exceed to likely is production that estimates WFP (KRI). Iraq of Region Kurdistan the in and governorates

In spite of the ongoing conflict, Iraq has seen 2015 wheat production increase from 2014 levels across most of the southern southern the of most across levels 2014 from increase production wheat 2015 seen has Iraq conflict, ongoing the of spite In

Wheat production improved in spite of the conflict the of spite in improved production Wheat 2: Box

litre 1 oil Vegetable

respondents. surveyed all of percent

a partial ration remained nearly the same as in May, at nearly 15 15 nearly at May, in as same the nearly remained ration partial a

kg 2 Sugar

(92%). Overall, the proportion of households that reported receiving receiving reported that households of proportion the Overall, (92%).

was reported from Muthanna (100%), (94%) and Diyala Diyala and (94%) Najaf (100%), Muthanna from reported was

kg 3 Rice May. The highest proportion of households not receiving any PDS PDS any receiving not households of proportion highest The May.

having received a full PDS ration, compared with 8.25*** percent in in percent 8.25*** with compared ration, PDS full a received having

kg 9 flour Wheat June. Less than 1 percent of all surveyed households reported reported households surveyed all of percent 1 than Less June.

mVAM data suggests that access to PDS rations further decreased in in decreased further rations PDS to access that suggests data mVAM Quantity Commodity

composition ration monthly PDS 1: Table

Access to the public distribution system (PDS) remained limited limited remained (PDS) system distribution public the to Access

governorates. monitored

20 in the rest of the the of rest the in 20 - 19 average on and

2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

baskets with their daily wage, compared with 33 in in 33 with compared wage, daily their with baskets

governorates; people in Anbar could purchase 16 food food 16 purchase could Anbar in people governorates;

Anbar, it remained weaker than all other monitored monitored other all than weaker remained it Anbar,

Although purchasing power appears to have increased in in increased have to appears power purchasing Although

5). (Figure Kirkuk and Din - al Salah Anbar,

power decreased in Diyala and Ninewa, and increased in in increased and Ninewa, and Diyala in decreased power

of a basic food basket in June, household purchasing purchasing household June, in basket food basic a of

In line with the trends observed for changes in the cost cost the in changes for observed trends the with line In

2015 June and May April, March,

food terms of trade, comparison of of comparison trade, of terms food - to - Wage 5: Figure

Source: WFP mVAM, June 2015 2015 June mVAM, WFP Source:

Ramadan. of observance the

have reflected strong seasonal demand associated with with associated demand seasonal strong reflected have

extent, and in some locations, higher prices in June may may June in prices higher locations, some in and extent,

Din in line with those in Baghdad. To some some To Baghdad. in those with line in Din - Al Salah in

90 percent higher than in Baghdad. Prices settled settled Prices Baghdad. in than higher percent 90 - 50 be

governorates, wheat flour and sugar prices continued to to continued prices sugar and flour wheat governorates,

Baghdad. High prices were also noted in Kirkuk. In both both In Kirkuk. in noted also were prices High Baghdad.

20 percent above the average in in average the above percent 20 – June in 1,200

The price of a standard food basket in Anbar was IQD IQD was Anbar in basket food standard a of price The

4). (Figure respectively percent 6 and 11 17, by increased

2015 June and May April, March,

Baghdad the cost of a food basket basket food a of cost the Baghdad Diyala, Ninewa and and Ninewa Diyala, Cost of a standard food basket, comparison of of comparison basket, food standard a of Cost 4: Figure

Iraq in security food Tracking 2015 June — 8 Bulletin

Financial support to mVAM provided by USAID USAID by provided mVAM to support Financial

[email protected] - jean Bauer Martin - Jean

[email protected] Husain Arif

[email protected] Pearce Jane

contact: please information further For

*** 0.01 <

** 0.01 to 0.05 <

* 0.05 to 0.10

reported symbol reported value - p

used: is reference following the significance,

To report the level of statistical statistical of level the report To reported. are results significant statistically only indicated, explicitly where Except

level significance and tests statistical Reporting Note: Methodological

with PDS wheat flour distribution estimated between 27 and 51 percent of requirements at the start of the month. month. the of start the at requirements of percent 51 and 27 between estimated distribution flour wheat PDS with

Even southern governorates reported PDS shortfalls, shortfalls, PDS reported governorates southern Even June. of start the by requirements their of any received not

figure jumped to 74 percent by the third week of June. Conflict governorates (Anbar, Ninewa and Salah Al Salah and Ninewa (Anbar, governorates Conflict June. of week third the by percent 74 to jumped figure Din) had had Din) -

wheat flour for June lagged, as only 32 percent of PDS wheat flour requirements were received by 1st June. This This June. 1st by received were requirements flour wheat PDS of percent 32 only as lagged, June for flour wheat

the supply chain in quantity, and imported rice stocks remained short due to cancelled tenders. PDS distribution of of distribution PDS tenders. cancelled to due short remained stocks rice imported and quantity, in chain supply the Iraq’s wheat and rice stock were at very low levels in late May. Wheat from the current harvest had not yet entered entered yet not had harvest current the from Wheat May. late in levels low very at were stock rice and wheat Iraq’s