FSL cluster coordinator mission report to (former Eastern State): 23–25th July 2019

Mission purpose: support FSLC partners and understand the changing context across Torit and western EES: / Lafon/ Ikwotos)

Objective: Support FSLC partners in Torit through the FSL State sub cluster with field mission to rural Torit/ Lafon:

 Tues 23rd: travel to Torit; context analysis with cluster partners: o Participatory mapping with FSLC partners: drivers & severity of food insecurity  Wed 24th: attend cluster meeting in Torit: o Present on functions/ principles of coordination/ essentials of integration o Mapping exercise showing partners: transitioning towards resilience & integration with other sectors o Briefing with FAO focal point  Thurs 25th: o Briefing with WFP head FO and FSLC focal point; o Return to

Photo of Imatong mountain courtesy of AVSI colleagues operating in Ikwotos

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The mission report below:

1. Looks at the wider FSL context across the four counties through discussions and mapping exercise with FSLC partners;

2. Looks at the FSL cluster after attending and presenting at the July 24th meeting at the MoA in Torit town with suggestions on simple tools to harness the key information for coordination: updated mailing lists for information dissemination and participatory mapping at payam and even boma level of who is doing what and where in each county;

3. Looks at the range of activities and foot print that FSLC partners have across the four counties given the brief time we had together; and the finally

4. Some follow up actions; the most important being the (I) participatory mapping who/ what/ where partners at Payam level for each county; (II) update mailing list; and (III) updated contact details for level sub cluster.

Other field missions have been longer which has provided more time for field visits with partners and even to conduct food security assessments in the field. I hope that this can be accomplished on a follow up visit. Finally a big thank you (1) to all those who gave their time during the two days I was in Torit; and (2) for the inspiring work that you continue to do under challenging circumstances.

Participatory mapping of the context and hot spots across the four counties of western former EE State: Annex 2: provides the January 2019 IPC State analysis report with details of ALL eight counties. The following main assumptions were used to project the food security into the present period May – July. Please note which assumptions were, at this time, correct and which did not hold to be correct (and please let me know):

 Rainfall: FEWSNET projection Feb/ March to be normally; June / Sept normal onset of rains and expected to be above average; (rains were late by 1 month)  Price trends: CLIMIS white maize price in 2019 projected to increase about 15% higher than those of 2018 and by the peak of the lean season these increase by about 25% (are we still seeing high prices at this time?);  Economic crisis: expected to continue well into 2019 and possibly beyond (highly likely)  Conflict & security: raiding to continue/ road insecurity persisting/ national conflict remains stable (we mapped a number of key conflict flash points with disruption to cultivation; few returnees and they will not return until the SPLA soldiers leave – national conflict is still very much a factor in Greater Torit)  Income: remain same from livestock sales, mining, surplus production, sale of natural resources e.g. firewood & charcoal/ some salaried workers (please confirm)  Food sources: stocks already run out or running out for most people into the lean season/ wild food options also decline/ fishing very limited/ milk & meat when livestock return in June & July (this was communicated by key informants)  Humanitarian Food Assistance: WFP seasonal scale up planned for March – September as in 2018; (yes, this is happening; though disrupted in Lafon due to road access problems)  Nutrition: expected to deteriorate into the lean season (likely but do not have the data to confirm)

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Two exercises were conducted: (1) January 2019 IPC with food analysts from WFP/ FAO/ Government/ AVSI in Juba; and (2) July 2019 with NGO FSLC partners in Torit: WFP/ FOCUS/ CARITAS/ AVSI/ Save Children/ Plan/ BRAC/ Ark for Humanity. The findings are presented below in the tables and maps:

Causes of food insecurity across the region:

Chronic (July 2019) Acute (July 2019) Acute (January 2019)

 Lack of HYV seeds; input supply 1. Conflict/ insecurity/ -Focus on cattle raiding from & (agro dealers/ market demand); displacement from Budi with agro pastoralists in Lafon &  Structural/ cultural/ poverty farms (fear of potential east . Banditry along roads since factors (risk aversion) against returnees due to iG 2013; especially 2015 - 2017 changes to production systems military presence still (lack capital for high input seen as threat) #1= rank; price rises of staple foods: systems) maize & sorghum; after 2016 disruption  Traditional production systems: 2. Continued macro of trade routes & insecurity/ poor road small acreage/ labour shortage/ economic crisis: infrastructure/ currency devaluation; limited ox plough adoption/ currency depreciation especially given the high market limited surplus production & high food prices dependency of ALL HHs especially urban  Seasonal rains/ poor road & agro pastoral network/ road closure/ severe disruption to market access/ #1= rank: Dry spells in 2018: especially delivery of food & emergency 3. Climatic: especially Torit/ east Ikwotos/ Lafon/ west Magwi crop kits floods & dry spells & flooding  Gender division of labour: women main farmers 4. Pests: especially FAW -White Ear Cob migration July – August (overburdened with social/ since July 2017 and north and returning south in dry season reproductive & productive work) wildlife to Kidepo valley  Very high post-harvest losses (PHL) -Especially long duration sorghum  Dependency syndrome: 3 5. Wild fires during Dec – Jan; high preference for decades of relief; time spent in long duration sorghum camps when 100% dependent; decline in the male cultivation Stability: protracted erosion of assets 2015 – 2018 especially teams of past livestock sales; overuse of forest resources (charcoal, leaves, poles etc.)

See January 2019 mapping exercise from the IPC analysis with the EES team showing the main livelihood zones across the region:  Green Belt  Highland forest & sorghum; and  Agro pastoral cattle & sorghum  Semi arid pastoral & agro pastoralism

For full descriptions of these livelihood zones refer to the FEWSNET (2018) livelihood zones in South manual: https://fscluster.org/south-sudan-rep/document/south-sudan-livelihood-zones-2018

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Livelihood zones across Greater Torit (Magwi/ Lafon/ Torit/ Ikwotos counties):

Context related discussions at MOA and the FSLC meeting (July 24th) for the four counties Lafon, Torit, Magwi and Ikwotos (term being used ‘Greater Torit’) included:

 Farming outlook: better than 2018; Late rains; but generally good 1st season; active pre- positioning of cereals & seeds by WFO and FAO (with seeds delivered on time); MOA supportive of the planned storage depot to be built in Torit (previously supplies came to Torit from Kapoeta); currently consumption of the green maize harvest; with preparation for the 2nd season;  FAW surveillance estimated that 75% farms assessed were infected – considered alarming;  Returns: Agriculture DG estimated (and triangulated with WFP FSNMS team) that returning citizens were few: about 35% returned to Magwi (especially around ); many partial households moving back and forth between refugee camp and farms; populations to Lafon, Torit and Ikwotos considered to be far lower than the % in Magwi;  Conditional GFD seen by local authorities as positive move from WFP;  Security: calm with sporadic cases of banditry along Nimule – Juba road; and a criminal killing along Torit – Imatong road;  Road access: creating havoc (poor road network plus rains) for field missions and especially WFP cereal/ nutrition supplement deliveries; KIs even describe out migration of Lafon

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residents to Juba and other locations as GFD delivery has not been possible (no details of numbers).

Focal points of the four FSNMS teams presented, at the FSLC meeting, their summary findings were collectively summarized by the county IPC focal point: “Better rainfall then 2018; food security generally promising by July which had been poor owing to the unusually long lean season (shortage of cereal stocks due to the poor 2018 harvest). Rains were initially late meaning the green harvest (now) is one month later than ‘normal’. Concern though for Lafon which is, currently, badly affected by floods.

 FAO: flood affected HHs to be part of the 2nd season vulnerability criteria for emergency crop kit distribution;

County level mapping of food insecure hot spots with FSLC partners – July 2019:

Magwi: Pre crisis Green Belt potential far from being realised as few people are cultivating:  Farming population thought to be only 35% (approx..) of that in 2016;  Lowa region (west): 100% farmers migrated in 2016 very few have returned;  Pajok region (east) some returns but largely transient farmers ‘back & forth’ from refugee camp;  Two locations where Bor Dinka cattle identified now; not just herders: but soldiers, well armed and capable of disrupting cultivation;  Wide spread presence of SPLA soldiers is a major deterrent for returnees from .

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Ikwotos: poorer natural resource endowment on the leeward/ dry side of the mountains in the lowland ‘cattle corridor’:  Perennial chronic issues further compounded in (1) Kidepo valley and (2) Ikoto region hotspots due to combination of: o Chronic (1 season only) poor farming practices (refer to issues listed above); o Higher than usual seasonal out migration of Lotuho population to the Palobek refugee camp; o Protracted current crisis: high food prices & poor harvest in 2018 (dry spells); and o Continued inter and intra communal conflict along the border with ;

Torit: livelihood zones split between one season cultivation (north) and two season cultivation (south):  Significant influence of the 2018 dry spell and greatly reduced harvest as compared to what was anticipated;  Displacement and disruption to cultivation in the areas bordering Lafon due to on-going inter communal conflict;  FSLC partners consider there a lack of innovation to maximize potential of farmers (role for development partners to address);  Area of Isaloro and Imourok (past high potential) disrupted by 2016 & 2017 conflict; estimated that approx.. only 35% of population returned (with clear implications on area cultivated and production in 2019);

Lafon: harsher agro pastoral livelihoods subject to perennial flooding  Two locations along the main Lafon town and Imehejek road: Lorirang (close to Lafon) and Loming (south of Imehejek) have seen low and late rainfall in consecutive seasons 2018 and 2019;  Additionally inter communal conflict (cattle rustling & altercation with SPLA with death of one soldier) affecting cultivation & livelihoods around Loming with displacement to mountains for safety;  Extensive flooding in and around Lafon town/ payam in both 2018 and again June/ July 2019;  Conflict with the national park/ wildlife as late season (October/ November) experience large scale wildlife migration back to the Kidepo/ Kinete valley with significant crop destruction of the late maturing sorghum;  Heavy rains along main road has prevented access for WFP supplies to reach planned targeted beneficiaries in and around Lafon town (supplies have then been diverted to more accessible locations);  General chronic issue of lack of innovation in adopting new crop varieties (Arrow root/ yams/ cassava) used as ‘hunger crops’ in other parts of the Equatorias.

The outlook appears to be ‘better’ than 2018 but many challenges for both humanitarian and develop ment actors remain for the 2019 season.

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Eastern Equatoria State FSLC in Torit:

The effect of the 2015 presidential decree has resulted in former EES in the establishment of the two new State level clusters which makes sense on purely pragmatic and operational grounds at least for the effective oversight across four counties each:  Greater Torit (covering Lafon, Torit, Magwi & Ikwotos counties in the west of EES); and  (covering Kapoeta North, South, East and Budi counties in the east of EES)

Additionally there is a county level cluster comprising partners in Magwi, chaired by the NNGO SPEDP and meets regularly in Nimule.

 Action: National FSLC to provide TORs for sub clusters and sub cluster focal persons that the State and County sub clusters can tailor according to their needs (see annex 1);

One of the key challenges is getting information and updates to ALL sub cluster members and operational partners. For this it is essential that the sub cluster at State and County have all the contact details:

 Action: for Alfred (FAO) to compile all FSLC members’ email contact details in Torit and Magwi so that they can be included also in the National cluster mailing list to receive a steady flow of weekly information & updates;

Time was too short at the Torit State cluster meeting but I report on an extended discussion with the State FSLC in 2018 and in discussion with the cluster focal points some of these run true also for Torit: Key questions asked was what do the FSLC partners want from the national cluster and the State sub cluster? And a range of responses were elicited:

FSLC partners want: Information on operations; cooperation with partners; collective achievements; come together; coordination & information sharing; useful information; results being accomplished; challenges understood; a spirit of team work; identify gaps and fill them; advocacy especially for fund raising; demand driven actions addressing community needs.

The challenge then for the Torit FSLC is to develop that shared vision amongst Government/ UN/ INGO/ NNGO to ensure people’s needs and expectations are being met to have an effective and united cluster. Below are some suggestions on presentations and topics for discussion through the year at the monthly cluster meetings:

Start the year:  WFP and FAO annual planned responses (in line with the September IPC); other FSLC partners present their plans then MoA (chair) can compile the cluster annual plan;  Present the January IPC messages & maps;  Monthly updates from partners on changes to context and progress / any new funding (ask the partners to submit their own inputs by email to be compiled by the minute taker);  Main season: map & document the planned inputs for main 1st and later 2nd farming season: who, what (details of the package), where, when, targeting who;  In collaboration with the local Inter Cluster Working Group contribute to inter agency assessment for any crisis events and plan response based on partner resources, experience and capacity; Mid Year review:  Review the annual plans; any significant changes (positive or negative);  Present the September IPC messages & maps; access the summary reports;

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 Seek input from UNICEF/ other specialist actors from other clusters on briefing on Nutrition, HIV&AIDS, GBV prevention etc. to support cross cutting themes;  Use any available resources from the national cluster (contact us directly or access the website: http://fscluster.org/south-sudan-rep/documents );  Lean season: map & document planned inputs for dry season (fishing and vegetable kits): who, what (details of the package), where, when, targeting who);  Mapping of livestock support services across the region and how to access services where needs exist; Year end:  Present the new Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) and Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP)  Update on WFP plans for local purchase of cereals for school feeding etc. and plans to support aggregation of produce through farmers’ groups/ associations/ cooperatives etc.  Present on innovative actions by partners (throughout the year) e.g. CARITAS Switzerland’s new FSL project; WFP’s aggregation centre results; and FAO future planning for resilience with the USAID funded Partnership for Recovery & Resilience (PfRR) etc.

Other ad hoc analysis exercises e.g. use time to conduct participatory mapping exercises with partners on who is doing what and where:

 Should be done ahead of the main season (plans) and update according to new entrants and what actually happened (ideally on a payam basis for each county);  Conduct the mapping exercise at least twice per year: (1) covering the two main farming season responses; and (2) covering the dry season response;  Ensure that development & resilience partners (addressing more chronic issues) are included alongside humanitarian (HRP) partners addressing more acute shock related and planned IPC responses;

Meeting follow up:

 Action: FAO chair to disseminate the strategy document to ALL FSLC partners in the Torit (State) and Magwi (county) level sub clusters: https://fscluster.org/south-sudan- rep/document/fsl-cluster-sub-national-support-and

 Action: FAO focal point to initiate the participatory mapping exercise; and follow up on the exercise (incomplete) from the partners who attended the July 24th meeting using the 2 x 2 matrix;

 Action: National FSLC IMO to provide Torit, Kapoeta, Magwi and all other State and County sub clusters the month 5Ws for their respective county(s) at the end of each month e.g. End of July to provide the June cleaned and analysed data from partners to assist clusters to more confidently understand the who is doing what and where in their areas of jurisdiction.

This covers the three main topics from the FSLCC presentation on:  Core functions of the national FSLC  Principles of coordination (who does what and where)  Rationale for more integrated programming for both HRP and development partners

On technical support for partners:  Action: https://fscluster.org/south-sudan-rep suggest the FSLC website and links at the bottom of the overview page for technical manuals & guidance;

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Partner mapping and foot print across the four counties making up Greater Torit region: Below the findings and input from FSLC NGO partners, FAO and WFP have been briefly mapped. In the exercise conducted after the FSLC meeting we looked at the degree of integration with other sectors by the humanitarian actors and the degree of transition towards more development/ resilience actions that better addresses the more chronic nature of agricultural/ livestock and more market based livelihoods.

 Moving along the Integration continuum 

Emergency response: Emergency response:

 CARITAS (Lux): bilateral funded food  Health: primary healthcare support in Nimule distribution; FAO seeds & tools and IDP camp & Kapoeta hospital livestock support (Magwi);  Ark for Humanity: FAO seeds & tools (Lafon); WFP GFD in Lafon & Kidepo area of  Liaise with Save Children on Nutrition & Ikwotos); FFE (Lafon) Protection; and With BBC media action on  Plan: GFD (Torit)/ FFA (Torit) & FFE peace building/ GBV/ Girls education (Magwi);  Linked with multi-purpose water supply: irrigation/ livestock/ human consumption & vegetable plots (Torit); and school kitchen

 gardens & nutrition awareness plus gender &

protection (Magwi);  With school nutrition gardens;  FOCOSS: seeds & tools (Ikwotos)  BRAC: seeds & tools (Torit)

 Nutrition: awareness/ volunteers/ hygiene  WHH: 1 year GIZ framer training + seeds & promotion; tools/ fruit trees/ fuel efficient stoves/ feeder roads/ water point rehabilitation/ VSLAs/ grinding mills (to VSLAs);

Early recovery & resilience Early Recovery & resilience:

Moving along the transition continuum transition the along Moving

 Global Aim 2018 – 2022 (Cordaid funded)  Some incorporation of nutrition training

 Agribuisness in Torit with sub partners SPARK (Business skills) & AGRITERA (Cooperatives)  CARITAS 2013 - 2025 (Luxembourg Government funded) in Magwi & Ikwotos; farmer training/ farmer associations/ seed  Nutrition prevention: awareness/ lead multiplication & foundation seed/ mothers/ village health workers/ growth extension workers & demo plots etc. monitoring volunteers/ production food  FOCOSS (own funding): cooperative supplements (weaning) & training; development (12) in Ikwotos: produce marketing & market linkages;

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 CARITAS (Switzerland): Greater Ikwoto  5’700 households benefitting from improved (Kidepo Valley, Geria, Ikwoto): 1’500 water schemes for drinking water or water for farmers benefitting from increased productive use agricultural production; 1’000 mothers/  2’700 households benefitting from hygiene caretakers benefitting from village gardens; promotion 150 vulnerable households benefitting  9’139 pupils and 230 teachers benefitting from from alternative income generating WASH hygiene promotion activities (beehive, poultry, goats etc.); 9’139 pupils and 230 teachers benefitting from School gardens.

And after discussions with FAO and WFP teams below to illustrate the foot print of the UN agencies in partnership with FSLC partners: Government, NNGO and INGOs:

WFP & partner footprint across:

HDP Nexus Activity Magwi Lafon Torit Ikwotos

GFD X Ark for Plan Ark for HRP Humanity Humanity FFE Plan Ark for Plan AVSI Humanity FFA X X Plan X

TSFP/ IFP IHO Save Children Save Children AVSI/ (Nutrition) Health Link Resilience SAMS: PHL & Partner TBC X X X Aggregation Centres

FAO & partner footprint across:

HDP Nexus Activity Magwi Lafon Torit Ikwotos

ELRP (MSR & CARITAS Ark for BRAC FOCOSS HRP DSR) Luxembourg Humanity

Livestock: vaccination & CARITAS Ark for AVSI AVSI treatment Humanity with CAHWs

Resilience EU funded  Vaccination & treatment Cross border  FFS/ APFS/ solar powered water points (multi-purpose use) project  Crop & food security monitoring (CFSAM & FSNMS/ IPC)  Seed multiplication  Roll out ox ploughing  Training

Future PfRR Preparation & planning for new Partnership for Recovery & Resilience intervention with UNDP/ FAO/ WFP/ UNMISS etc.

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This appears to be the agreed agency platform and way forward for donors and UN agencies in supporting the ‘Humanitarian Development Peace Nexus’ (HDPN) through more resilience programming in the next few years ahead.

The Partnership for Recovery and Resilience (PfRR) appears to be a significant platform for harnessing resources and nationally covers seven counties: Aweil, Wau, Bor, Yambio, , Torit and Renk. Find in the link below to the PfRR profile of : https://fscluster.org/south-sudan-rep/document/resilience-profile-torit-2019

Alistair Short (27/7/2019)

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Annex 1: Generic ToR for sub national Food Security & Livelihood (FSL) coordination forum

Background Since December 2013 crisis in the past 5 years, the humanitarian community in has responded to a series of major emergencies on top of a protracted chronic crisis driven by conflict related insecurity (political/ communal/ resource based) and associated displacement, an economic crisis (high food prices/ devalued currency); climatic shocks (floods & dry spells), pests (notably Fall Army Worm) and diseases (crop/ livestock & human), protection crisis, public health crisis and chronic lack of access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene practices. As a result of this cocktail of shocks and events food and nutrition insecurity has reached unprecedented levels in 2017 (when famine was declared, the first since 1998 and 1988), 2018 (with the highest ever recorded cereal deficit) and 2019 (with the highest ever recorded number of people severely food insecure in IPC phase 3, 4 and 5).

The overall goal of the South Sudan FSLC is to contribute towards the Humanitarian Response Plan in addressing humanitarian needs through a clear and effective strategy; and by doing this through being a primary source of information on the on-going humanitarian crisis to address food insecurity and facilitate a coordinated needs based response that considers protection (security/ GBV) and ensures an inclusive approach (age/ gender/ disability). At the field level, critical information is exchanged including constraints around operations and understanding of potential response gaps. To that end, sub-national (State and County) level forums are essential to allow food security actors to meet regularly and in a structured manner to discuss on-going operations of partners, highlight challenges, identify gaps in response, avoid duplication, support more integrated responses (with the other clusters), develop contingency response plans to anticipated localised shocks, and support scale up when and how required in a rapidly changing context.

Accountability The sub national FSL clusters are accountable to the FSLC Secretariat and its membership at the National level. The FSLC Secretariat is a service delivery entity that serves the needs of its members and is beholden to the trust and willingness of those members to share and contribute towards a greater collective good and response.

Objective The purpose of the sub national FSL coordination forums are to provide a field level forum for the discussion, coordination (identify gaps/ avoid duplication), promote more integrated actions, share essential information, and where possible identify capacity gaps (even training needs) etc. With the State level ICWG and Solutions Working Groups the FSL cluster will contribute towards the development of contingency plans around ‘likely’ localised shocks and resultant humanitarian needs especially in relation sudden onset emergencies.

Specific Responsibilities Under the leadership of the sub national FSL Focal Point (see draft TOR below) and with support from the National FSLC Secretariat the FSLC forum will:

 Be the FSLC Secretariat’s main channel for disseminating and collecting information in the geographical area: e.g. minutes of meetings, emergency alerts, context updates, contingency matrices and participatory cluster mapping of response/ gaps etc.  Lead coordination meetings at either the State or County level.  Act as a mechanism for updating and encouraging FSLC members in needs assessments and other related activities within the geographical area.

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 Act as the primary conduit for dissemination of strategic decisions, undertaken by the National or State level cluster, to operational partners and members within the identified region  Act as the focal point, for ensuring, that operational partners’ monthly report and plans match with activities in the field

Suggested draft TOR for a sub national FSL Focal Point1

Accountability The sub national FSL focal point2 works on behalf of their members (operational partners: UN, NGO, CBO, Government etc.) and liaises on a periodic basis with the Juba based FSLC Secretariat. At many State level forums this will involve supporting the formal chairing of the coordination body by the Ministry of Agriculture (in line with pre crisis/ cluster activation coordination forums).

Objective The purpose of the FSL focal point, is to provides a field level forum for the discussion, coordination and advocacy of all FSLC activities at their State or County locations (in many instances this is across a number of counties as coordination across whole States is often not feasible in South Sudan).

As there is limited access in many locations the capacity of individual/ organisations taking on the role of focal point will vary from place to place, however, focal points should have an understanding of the situation, geography, local actors, etc. and must have a field presence in their respective area.

Specific Responsibilities  Focal points will act as the FSLC's local 'representative' in specific geographic areas, e.g. State or County, and will be the cluster coordinator's main channel for disseminating and collecting information in the geographical area – particularly minutes of meetings, emergency alerts, contingency matrices and the FSLC products: gap analyses, dash boards, presence maps etc.  Focal points should encourage coordination meetings at either the State or County (and even sub County level where possible). To the extent possible, focal points will keep the FSLC Secretariat informed of any major new developments of relevance to the FSL cluster.  Focal points will also if possible facilitate joint needs assessments and other related activities within the geographical area.  As required liaise with OCHA (e.g. State ICWG) and other local level coordination mechanisms where available (supporting local contingency planning & multi sector integrated responses).  Any other tasks that may be required to achieve the objective of this assignment

Focal points must be from experienced operational FSLC partners with a strong presence on-the- ground and could be the Cluster Lead Agencies (WFP & FAO) or any other national registered NGO.

1 The FSLC focal point recognizes the willingness, ‘good will’ and the voluntary nature of this role – and therefore this TOR in no way prescribes what anyone must do; they can only do what is possible in combination with their existing agency position and role; 2 In Somalia for instance they also have a Vice Focal Point to cover when the Focal Point is away and/ or provide additional support to their forum;

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Annex 2: EES (January 2019 IPC in South Sudan) report with key messages:

Main drivers: dry spells affecting availability (cereal gaps) and economic crisis/ high market prices affecting access especially for pastoralists reliant on exchanging livestock for cereals; other drivers that have high impact but are more localized include: conflict in the form of cattle raiding; wild fires; livestock and human diseases; and caseloads of IDPs (greatest in Ikotos with 25,000).

Eastern Equatoria State team projection assumptions

 Rainfall: FEWSNET projection Feb/ March to be normally; June / Sept normal onset of rains and expected to be above average;  Price trends: CLIMIS white maize price in 2019 projected to increase about 15% higher than those of 2018 and by the peak of the lean season these increase by about 25%;  Economic crisis: expected to continue well into 2019 and possibly beyond  Conflict & security: raiding to continue/ road insecurity persisting/ national conflict remains stable  Income: remain same from livestock sales, mining, surplus production, sale of natural resources e.g. firewood & charcoal/ some salaried workers  Food sources: stocks already run out or running out for most people into the lean season/ wild food options also decline/ fishing very limited/ milk & meat when livestock return in June & July  Humanitarian Food Assistance: WFP seasonal scale up planned for March – September as in 2018;  Nutrition: expected to deteriorate into the lean season

Eastern counties/ Greater Kapoetas:

Budi: 4-4-3 with HFA 4-3!-3 Current GAP/ PIN: 58,230; Drivers: dry spells affected cereal production in Buya area (Loriyok, Napak and Kimotong Payams) and Lotukei, Lorema and Kikilai of Didinga area; with cereal surplus 1,882 MT realised from Nagichot, Ngauro, Loudo and ; economic crisis impacts food deficit households whose stocks run out in 1 - 4 months and reliant on high market prices; GAM rate is 9.4% (Alert phase 2). P1 PIN: 63,083; Food stocks to deteriorate peak pastoral lean season; cattle remain in camps with no access to milk; reliance on market purchase at high prices; high food prices expected to continue. P2 PIN: 53,378; Noticeable improvement as livestock returned from camps in local dry season grazing locations in South Sudan and more milk available for homestead based family members;

Kapoeta East: 4-4-3 with HFA 4-3!-3 Current GAP/ PIN: 110,204; Drivers: (1) dry spell impacting on HH cereal availability; and (2) the protracted economic crisis that has hit hard the predominantly pastoral communities; (3) unusual high food prices, (4) Poor pasture and water: livestock migrated one month earlier than normal (low volume of milk). Emergency coping: resorting to selling more animals than usual (67%); gathering more wild foods than usual (93%); arranging more marriages of under 17 girls than normal (15%); slaughtering more animals than normal (51%); sending more HH members than normal to the cattle camps (75%) and sending more HH members to eat elsewhere (46%); GAM rate is 11.7% (serious phase 3). P1 PIN: 118,681; Limited food stocks; situation deteriorates into the peak of the pastoralist lean season; cattle remain in the cattle camps with no access to milk; and reliance on market purchase at high prices with need for crisis and emergency level coping strategies: 94% of HHs with livestock and 67% selling more animals than usual at this time of year. P2 PIN: 101,727; Noticeable

14 improvement from P1 as livestock returned from cattle camps and local dry season grazing locations in Ethiopia and more milk available at the homestead for family members (elderly, women & children). AMN situation likely to fall to the critical stage (phase 4): poor IYCF practices, poor sanitation; poor health seeking behaviour; heavy rains likely increase malaria, diarrhea, ARi prevalence.

Kapoeta North: 4-4-3 with HFA 4-3!-3 Current GAP/ PIN: 69,817; Drivers: (1) the dry spell impacting on HH cereal availability; and (2) the protracted economic crisis that has hit hard the predominantly pastoralist communities with need to employ emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation: resorting to selling more animals than usual (63%); gathering more wild foods than usual (81%); sending more HH members than normal to the cattle camps (54%); sending HH to eat elsewhere more than usual (79%); borrowing more money than normal (41%); and arranging more marriages of under 17 girls than normal (44%). P1 PIN: 75,188; Limited food stocks at home as the situation deteriorates into the peak of the pastoralist lean season; cattle remain in the cattle camps with no access to milk; and reliance on market purchase at high prices with need for crisis and emergency level coping strategies: 95% of HHs with livestock and 63% selling more animals than usual at this time of year. AMN affected by food deficits; poor IYCF practices, poor sanitation situation in some parts of the county where latrine usage is not practiced coupled with poor health seeking behaviours and return of heavy rains most likely increase malaria, diarrhoea, ARi prevalence. P2 PIN: 64,447; Noticeable improvement from P1 as livestock returned from cattle camps and local dry season grazing locations in Ethiopia and more milk available at the homestead for family members (elderly, women & children). AMN likely to fall to Serious stage (phase 3);

Kapoeta South: 3-4-3 with HFA 3-3!-3 Current GAP/ PIN: 52,694; Main drivers for the phase 4 are (1) the dry spell impacting on HH cereal availability; and (2) the protracted economic crisis that has hit hard the predominantly pastoralist communities of Greater Kapoeta and also the agro pastoral areas of northern Budi and Lafon; resulting in large food consumption gaps and the need to employ emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation in Kapoeta South (compounded by the larger market dependent urban population as compared to the other two Kapoeta counties) for 35% (classified phase 4) of the population; gathering more wild foods than usual (69%); sending HH to eat elsewhere more than usual (26%); borrowing more money than normal (19%); and for 45% (classified phase 3) marginally meeting food needs by depleting essential livelihood assets or resorting to crisis coping strategies. GAM 8.5% (Alert phase 2). P1 PIN: 56,207; Limited food stocks at home as the situation deteriorates into the peak of the pastoralist lean season; cattle remain in the cattle camps with no access to milk; and reliance on market purchase at high prices with need for crisis and emergency level coping strategies: 63% of HHs with livestock and 14% selling more animals than usual at this time of year. P2 PIN: 49,181; Noticeable improvement from P1 as livestock returned from cattle camps and local dry season grazing locations in Ethiopia and more milk available at the homestead for family members (elderly, women & children); AMN serious stage (Phase 3): poor IYCF practices, poor sanitation; poor health seeking behaviours; rains will likely increase malaria, diarrhoea, ARi prevalence.

Western counties/ Greater Torit:

Ikotos: 3-3-3 with HFA insufficient to change phase classification

Current GAP/ PIN: 70,513 (55%); Most affected Eastern agro pastoral zone more isolated with poor road connection to market: affected by the dry spell (cereal gap/ availability); high food prices and declining terms of trade for cereals in exchange for livestock (financial/ physical access. Western/ central green belt produced a surplus but with limited access to local markets resulting in surplus exported to Uganda or Hatire. GAM rate 13.5% Serious (phase3). P1 PIN: 76,923 (60%); 60%

15 population in central & western highlands utilizing their surplus production and with income earning casual labour opportunities with the logging concessions; 40% eastern region are expected to face a continued deterioration in their food security: stocks run out; livestock moved to the cattle camps; cattle raiding over scarce resources; heavy reliance on markets for cereals; declining terms of trade and high prices; livestock diseases and poor pasture further reducing milk yields. Net effect then is a minor deterioration overall but not significant for a phase 4 area classification. P2 PIN: 76,923 (60%): Western & central highlands reach peak lean season; cereal stocks expected to run out; greater reliance on markets with high prices; greater importance on wild food gathering, hunting, and sale of livestock. Agro-pastoral eastern region expected to show a small improvement as livestock return to the homestead providing milk with the onset of rains and improved pasture.

Lafon 3-3-4 with HFA insufficient to change phase classification

Current GAP/ PIN: 53,190 (50%); Drivers: effects of 2018 dry spells that affected the farming and cereal production (currently a cereal deficit of 1,479 MT); affecting especially agriculturalists; the other main driver is the economic crisis impacting food deficit households especially those who depend on market supply. Food consumption score is poor, hunger scale is moderate (crisis) while rCSI is crisis and practicing emergency livelihood coping strategies. GAM is indicative of phase 3.

P1 PIN: 63,828 (60%); Deterioration in food security expected: cereal stocks run out; reliance on market purchase when prices are high and rising with declining terms of trade in exchanging livestock for cereals; lower rainfall resulting in lower water levels in the Kinete valley with more limited fish expected than in normal times; hunting of wild animals is restricted; and wild foods/ leaves are less available in the dry season. P2 PIN: 69,147 (65%); Agro pastoral livelihoods expected to deteriorate further in P2 albeit less than in P1: the animals are nearby in the Kinete Valley and return to the homestead providing milk; otherwise the key factors in P1 remain valid into P2.

Magwi 3-3-3 with HFA insufficient to change phase classification

Current GAP/ PIN: 86,401 (45%); Significant poor food consumption score, crisis livelihood coping but with minimal household hunger scale. Western region (70%): with IDP caseload pressure and higher cereal gaps. Eastern region (30%) is part of the Equatoria green belt with cereal surplus from 2018 production and better food consumption and less reliance on crisis/ emergency coping strategies as compared to the west. GAM 9.4% Alert (phase 2). P1 PIN: 86,401 (45%); Eastern Green Belt with available stocks from the surplus 1st season harvest; much exported directly to Juba and Uganda. Western region also expected to still have sufficient harvest albeit with a higher % resorting to crisis level coping strategies. No change in situation as compared to current. P2 PIN: 105,601 (55%); Eastern Green Belt again maintains the same level of food insecurity with the addition of the start of the 2nd season harvest expected at the end of P2 period. Western region expected to deteriorate as depth of the lean season reached; cereal stocks exhausted and greater reliance on markets for food; assets are being eroded and crisis coping strategies employed; at this point it is expected before the need for emergency coping strategies that in need populations will return to the Uganda refugee camps; phase 4 populations increase but phase classification remains 3.

Torit 3-4-4 with HFA insufficient to change phase classification

Current GAP/ PIN: 80,409 (50%); High food consumption gaps due to dry spell resulting in an unprecedented 2018 cereal deficit (12,000 MT), high food price shocks coupled with simultaneous erosion of livelihoods and loss of purchasing power by agro pastoralists exchanging livestock for cereals over the last five years. High % of HHs resorting to crisis coping strategies. GAM 9.4% alert

16 phase 2. P1 PIN: 88,450 (55%); Situation expected to deteriorate from the current as the effects of the poor harvest (phenomenal cereal gap of 12,000 MT) is felt; stocks run out; reliance on markets when food prices are high and seasonally rising. Cattle raiding is most likely to take place as the youth take the animals out to the Kinete Valley. Hunting is restricted, fishing limited to a very small % of the population (estimated by KI to be 1-2%); the availability of wild foods declines in the dry season. There is a reliance in the urban areas on petty trade and in the rural areas on sale of firewood & charcoal to buy food in the market. P2 PIN: 96,491 (60%); Situation of largely agro pastoral based livelihoods is expected to continue to deteriorate into the depth of the lean season ahead of any early green harvest in late August / early September; animals will return to the homestead providing milk to offset to some degree the effects of the deep lean season hunger (importance of milk amongst poor agro pastoralists is far less important to HH food security than in the more pastoralist locations across Greater Kapoeta). Net effect is a continued decline with increasing population % in phase 4.

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