Research June 2013 Hong Kong Monthly REVIEW AND COMMENTARY ON HONG KONG'S PROPERTY MARKET Office Leasing market driven by relocation and renewal Residential Secondary home sales find support Retail Retailers looking at more cost-effective locations1 June 2013 Hong Kong Monthly Market in brief The following table and figures present a selection of key trends in Hong Kong‟s economy and property markets. Table 1 Economic indicators and forecasts Latest 2013 Economic indicator Period 2011 2012 reading forecast GDP growth Q1 2013 +2.8% +4.9% +1.4% +3.0% Inflation rate Apr 2013 +4.0% +5.3% +4.1% +4.4% Feb 2013- Unemployment 3.5%# 3.4% 3.1% 3.2% Apr 2013 Prime lending rate Current 5.00–5.25% 5.0%* 5.0%* 5.0%* Source: EIU CountryData / Census & Statistics Department / Knight Frank # Provisional * HSBC prime lending rate Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Grade-A office prices and rents Luxury residential prices and rents Retail property prices and rents Jan 2007 = 100 Jan 2007 = 100 Jan 2007 = 100 250 190 350 230 170 300 210 190 150 250 170 130 150 200 130 110 150 110 90 90 100 70 70 50 50 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price index Rental index Price index Rental index Price index Rental index Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank Source: Rating and Valuation Department / Knight Frank Note: Provisional figures from Oct 2012 to Mar 2013 2 2 KnightFrank.com.hk Monthly review Property sales were quiet in May, due to the implementation of the Double Stamp Duty on all property sectors in February and the Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance on the residential sector in April. However, leasing markets across all sectors were steady amid the stable local economy and the shift of some potential buyers from purchasing to leasing. Activity in the Grade-A office leasing market had to downsize to cut costs due to “mainly involved Prime office higher rents upon lease renewal. relocation and However, there were some Hong Kong‟s Grade-A office sales transactions involving expansion. For renewal in May. market remained subdued in May, example, JP Morgan leased an with investors deterred by the higher additional floor in Chater House, transaction costs from the Double Central, in addition to the over Stamp Duty implemented in 120,000 sq ft of space it had already February 2013. Grade-A office prices been occupying in the building. in all major business districts dipped ” another 0.3%, month on month. Other major leasing deals over the month included a 17,823-sq-ft, There were only a few major office mid-level floor in Cityplaza Three, deals last month. China Mobile Quarry Bay, taken up by Sun Life purchased a number of floors that Assurance Company of Canada and a they had already been occupying in 16,694-sq-ft, mid-level floor in Cosco Kowloon Commerce Centre, Kwai Tower, Sheung Wan, leased by The Chung, for end use. The space Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation. totaled 100,000 sq ft and cost them 28 Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, HK$860 million or HK$8,600 per sq ft. completed in the third quarter of In the near Another deal involved multiple floors 2012, registered robust leasing future, we totaling 224,000 sq ft in Exchange activity. A number of deals were Tower, Kowloon Bay, which sold for reportedly concluded with tenants expect the HK$2,500 million. including an interior designer firm and a recruiting agency. “low-priced home The leasing sector remained stable, market to be but transactions mainly involved Having bottomed out, Central‟s relocation and renewal. Grade-A office rents rose 0.2% in May relatively active Redevelopment plans, such as the and we believe they will remain compared to the 330,000-sq-ft Wharf T&T Square in largely stable in 2013. We maintain Kowloon Bay and the 200,000-sq-ft our view that rents in Kowloon East luxury sector. Sunning Plaza in Causeway Bay, will see 10–15% growth over the year. created relocation demand from existing tenants in nearby buildings Residential and districts. Due to the limited availability of With the new Residential Properties ” space for relocation, some tenants (First-hand Sales) Ordinance having had no choice but to renew their come into effect on 29 April, most leasing contracts and in some cases developers suspended the launch of 3 June 2013 Hong Kong Monthly new projects or the remaining units of coming one to two years, lending expansion activity. For example, primary projects previously launched. support to residential prices. Sincere Department Store took Only three residential projects 30,000 sq ft of space in King Wah offering less than 200 units were However, with the various tightening Centre, Mong Kok, on a nine-year available for sale in May and the policies in place and market lease, according to market sources. transaction volume for primary sales sentiment remaining cautious, we in the month is expected to hit a believe there will be a drop in activity While retail investors remained record low. Major developers were in both the primary and secondary cautious due to the implementation preparing new marketing materials to markets over the next few months. of the Double Stamp Duty, end-users comply with the tighter sales We estimate that residential sales were still on the lookout for quality regulations and we expect limited will fall about 10% this year to properties. A supermarket chain residential properties available for 70,000–75,000 units, with mass reportedly bought a ground-floor sale in June. residential prices dropping around unit in Billionnaire Avant, Kowloon 10% and prices in the more resilient City, for around HK$132.5 million, Meanwhile, sentiment in the luxury sector falling 5%. while a retailer bought the ground secondary residential market and „Basement 1‟ floors of New East recovered slightly, with an increase Retail Ocean Centre in Tsim Sha Tsui East in transactions of small to totaling 26,677 sq ft for HK$238 medium-sized units due to landlords April‟s retail sales volume rose a million. softening their stance on asking notable 20.7% year on year, after the prices and there being a lack of fall in the price of gold sparked a With local retail sales slowing, we available units in the primary market. buying spree, which led to a growth maintain our forecast that rents in We expect the mass residential of about 70% in the sales of core retail districts will only increase market to be more active compared „jewellery, watches and clocks and 5% year on year, in 2013. We expect to the luxury market where supply is valuable gifts‟. However, the growth northern districts along the East Rail limited and owners are generally of spending by Mainland visitors Line, such as Shatin and Sheung Shui, firmer on asking prices, due to their continued to lag the increase in their to attract increasing attention from stronger property holding power. arrival number during the Labour luxury retailers targeting Mainland Day holiday. During the three-day cross-border shoppers. On the leasing front, there was a holiday period, local retail sales grew recent increase in “super luxury” only about 5% from last year, properties for rent and accordingly although Mainland visitor arrivals rental levels were slightly more increased 15% year on year. negotiable than they previously were, while rentals for “mid-range” luxury With the slower growth in visitor units remained less negotiable due expenditure and increasing shop We expect northern to the faster take-up rate. Our rents in traditional core retail districts, districts along the records show that luxury residential luxury retailers became more rentals remained stable last month cautious in their expansion activity, East Rail Line, such as with a slight increase in the shifting to more cost-effective space “Shatin and Sheung transaction volume. in emerging retail districts. For instance, about 100,000 sq ft of retail Shui, to attract According to the Rating and space covering three floors in Kwun increasing attention Valuation Department, 13,551 homes Tong Harbour Plaza was reportedly are forecast to be completed in 2013 leased to a watch retailer for from luxury retailers. and 15,817 in 2014, with the majority approximately HK$1 million per located in the New Territories. month. It was reported that the Meanwhile, the Transport and space could be developed into a Housing Bureau forecasts that 67,000 „clock city‟ aimed at Mainland homes could be available in the shoppers, taking advantage of the coming three to four years, increased foot-flow following the ” representing an average of official opening of the Kai Tak Cruise 16,750–23,333 units a year. Terminal in June 2013. Meanwhile, a Considering the annual average watch brand leased a 3,000-sq-ft take-up of around 20,000 homes in shop in New Town Plaza in Shatin. the past 20 years, a shortage in homes is expected to remain in the Local retailers also engaged in 4 KnightFrank.com.hk PRIME OFFICE Table 2 Selected office sales transactions Gross floor Despite the implementation Tower / floor Price Price District Building area / unit (HK$M) (HK$ psf) of the Double Stamp Duty, a (sq ft) few major Grade-A office Kowloon Kwai Block A / Commerce 100,000 $860 $8,600 sales transactions were Chung multiple floors Centre recorded in non-core Kowloon 23rd, 25th–31st Exchange Tower 224,000 $2,500 $11,161 locations last month.