Mexico Peace Index 2016: Mapping the Evolution of Peace and Its Drivers

MAPPING THE EVOLUTION OF PEACE AND ITS DRIVERS Quantifying Peace and its Benefits The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace. IEP has offices in Sydney, New York, Brussels and Mexico City. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace. For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 02 HIGHLIGHTS 04 1 RESULTS AND FINDINGS 06 2016 Mexico Peace Index Ranking 06 Most and Least Peaceful States 14 Trends in Peacefulness: From the Height of the Drug War to 2015 19 Mexico's Peace Gap: A Look at the Distribution of Peace 25 State Changes in Peacefulness from 2011 to 2015 27 Verifying Mexico's Official Crime Data 40 Understanding Disappearances 44 An Overview of Justice Reforms 48 2 POSITIVE PEACE IN MEXICO 49 About Positive Peace 51 Understanding Positive Peace in Mexico 53 The Mexico Positive Peace Index 56 The Pillars of Positive Peace in Mexico 59 3 ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE IN MEXICO 63 Key Findings 64 The Economic Impact of Violence, 2003-2015 67 Economic Value of Peace 72 4 EXPERT CONTRIBUTIONS 78 Ethical journalism in violent times by Adrián Lopez (Editorial Director, Noroeste) 78 Good practices to develop the New Criminal Justice System in Mexico to its full potential by Guillermo Raúl Zepeda Lecuona (Research Professor, ITESO) and Paola Guadalupe Jiménez Rodríguez (Evaluation Coordinator, Jurimetría) 82 “Mando Único” and police development by María Elena Morera Mitre (President) and Juan Pablo Arango Orozco (Researcher, Causa en Común) 86 A map towards building peace at the local level by Francisco Rivas, Director General, (Observatorio Nacional Ciudadanot) and Juan Pablo Arango Orozco (Researcher, Causa en Común) 89 Non-Discrimination of indigenous people in Mexico: A component of positive peace by Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Senior Fellow (Center for Democracy Development and the Rule of Law, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University) 91 5 METHODOLOGY 94 2016 Mexico Peace Index Methodology 94 2016 Mexico Positive Peace Index Methodology 99 Methodology for the Economic Impact of Violence 105 APPENDICES 108 Appendix A: MPI Full Results 108 Appendix B: MPI and Positive Peace Indicator Correlations 109 END NOTES 111 REFERENCES 114 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico from 2003 to 2015, with new results for 2015. This report aims to deepen the understanding of the trends, patterns and drivers of peace in Mexico, while highlighting the important economic benefits that will flow from a more peaceful society. The MPI is based on the work of the Global Peace Index, the leading measure of global peacefulness that has been produced by IEP every year since 2007. It is part of a series of national peace indices, which includes the United States Peace Index and the United Kingdom Peace Index. In 2015, Mexico’s peace improved by 0.3 percent, which is the Mexicans living in a state that is more peaceful today than it smallest improvement in peace in the last five years. The was in 2011. improvement is largely attributed to a 10 percent decline in The rate of organized crime related offenses started to improve the violent crime rate and an eight percent decline in the rate from 2010 onwards. In that year, 25 states improved their of organized crime related offenses. However, this was offset organized crime scores. These improvements preceded the by deteriorations in detention without sentencing, weapons reductions in homicides and violent crime that came two years crime and the homicide rate. The latter increased by six later. In 2012, 21 states recorded improvements in their violent percent. Furthermore, the gap between the most and least crime levels, while 19 states recorded a decrease in their peaceful states widened slightly in 2015, reversing the trend homicide rates. These results would indicate that improvements observed in six of the seven prior years. in levels of organized crime levels may be a precursor of An area of concern is the trend towards increased impunity, changes in other forms of violence. which deteriorated dramatically from 2007 onwards. In 2007, This report presents a cautiously optimistic picture for the there were four convictions for every five cases of homicide, future of peace in Mexico. However, efforts need to be but by 2013 there was only one conviction for every five strengthened to counteract the slowdown in the cases. This, combined with the increases in detention without improvements in peace that occurred in 2015. It is too early to sentencing, points to an overstretched judicial system, as is determine if this is a reversal of the trend of improving further supported by statistics on the over-crowding of peacefulness or a brief deviation from the underlying trend. prisons. It also highlights the challenges facing the justice system, whose 2015 federal expenditure was 78 billion pesos, The five states with the largest improvements in their MPI below the 2012 level of expenditure. scores over the past five years are Nayarit, Durango, Nuevo León, Chihuahua and Baja California. These were five of the The longer term trends indicate a marked improvement in seven least peaceful states in 2011, reflecting that the largest peacefulness since 2011, the year in which violence peaked in improvements have been recorded in the states most affected Mexico. The country has improved its peacefulness by 13 by violence. Nayarit ranked as the least peaceful state in percent since that time. Violent crime, homicides and Mexico five years ago. Today it ranks 19th out of 32. organized crime have all fallen by nearly 30 percent. These improvements mean that twenty-five out of the 32 states in The five states with the largest deteriorations since 2011 are Mexico have become more peaceful since 2011, including four Baja California Sur, Zacatecas, Oaxaca, Querétaro and of the five states that ranked at the bottom in that year. These Guanajuato, reflecting shifts among organized crime groups improvements in peace have resulted in roughly 85 percent of and highlighting that not all parts of Mexico are improving. MEXICO PEACE INDEX 2016 | Executive Summary 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The largest deterioration occurred in Baja California Sur, Reporting of crimes by the police is inaccurate. By comparing which has diverged from the national trend. The state’s the homicide numbers recorded by the police to death homicide rate more than tripled, from 5.7 in 2011 to 19.8 in certificates from hospitals it is estimated that homicide 2015. The rate of weapons crime also increased sevenfold. victims have been undercounted by more than 20 percent in 11 states. Notably, Veracruz, which ranks third for overall There is a moderate, statistically significant relationship peacefulness in the MPI, has the largest discrepancy. between improvements in peace and the levels of Positive Peace. The Mexican states that have higher levels of Positive There is a need to enhance data collection and analysis. Both Peace tended to experience larger reductions in violence the accuracy of data and breadth of data could be improved. between 2011 and 2015. Nuevo León, which ranks first in This would enable improvements in both official and unofficial Positive Peace, had the third largest improvement. analysis and is especially relevant in states where official statistics show low crime rates that contrast with other data Improvements in peacefulness have generated an economic sources and public surveys on crime. benefit of 802 billion pesos (US$50 billion) in Mexico for the four years since 2011. This is a 38 percent reduction in the Further, official statistics do not include the more than 26,000 economic impact of violence and is nearly one and a half times people in Mexico who have been missing since 2007. This the size of a single year of Mexico’s agricultural production. report includes an in-depth analysis on disappearances in Mexico. The majority of these people are either youth and/or In 2015, the economic impact of violence improved by four male, often working class men with families. However some percent, at 76 billion pesos (US$4.8 billion). The decrease in states face a higher proportion of missing women. The violent crime in 2015 had the largest impact, representing 96 different activities of organized crime groups appear to billion pesos, but was offset by the increased costs associated impact the gender ratios. Independent research would with higher homicide rates. suggest that approximately nine percent of known The economic impact of violence, including the opportunity disappearances are related to elements of the government or cost, stands at 2.12 trillion pesos (US$134 billion) in 2015, groups working in collusion with the government. equivalent to 13 percent of Mexico’s GDP. This corresponds to Given these issues, the country has invested significant effort 17,525 pesos per person, roughly equal to two months of in reforms to the police, judicial and penal systems. The data wages for the average Mexican worker. on the implementation and effects of reforms remains nascent, therefore limiting the scope for quantitative analysis. Government expenditure on violence containment has been But as the 2016 deadline for the implementation of the New rising.

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