MEXICO PEACE INDEX INDEX PEACE MEXICO MEXICO PEACE 2021 INDEX 2021 IDENTIFYING AND MEASURING THE FACTORS THAT DRIVE PEACE Institute for Economics & Peace Quantifying Peace and its Benefits The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace. IEP is headquartered in Sydney, with offices in New York, The Hague, Mexico City, Brussels and Harare. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace. For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.org Please cite this report as: Institute for Economics & Peace. Mexico Peace Index 2021: Identifying and Measuring the Factors That Drive Peace, Sydney, May 2021. Available from: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources (accessed Date Month Year). CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 Key Findings 4 RESULTS & TRENDS 8 Methodology at a Glance 11 1 National Results 12 2020 State Results 16 Six-Year Trends 29 THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE IN MEXICO 45 The Economic Impact of Violence in 2020 46 2 Trends in the Economic Impact of Violence 48 The Economic Impact of Violence by State 50 Improvements and Deteriorations in the Economic Impact of Violence 52 Government Expenditure on Violence Containment 55 Methodology at a Glance 58 POSITIVE PEACE 61 What is Positive Peace? 62 3 Positive Peace in Mexico: Results from the Global Positive Peace Index 64 Perceptions of Government: Trends in Well-Functioning Government and Low Levels of Corruption 66 Dynamics That Lead to Increases in Crime 68 Positive Peace by State: the Mexico Positive Peace Index 70 IMPLEMENTING POSITIVE PEACE 74 Building Capacities for Positive Peace 75 4 Mexico Case Studies 77 METHODOLOGY 79 2021 Mexico Peace Index Indicators 80 5 Methodology for Calculating the Economic Impact of Violence 83 Positive Peace Methodology 86 Appendix A: MPI Results 89 Appendix B: MPPI Results 91 Endnotes 94 MEXICO PEACE INDEX 2021 | 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2021 report is the eighth edition of the Mexico The only indicator to deteriorate in 2020 was detention Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute without a sentence. This was the first time since for Economics and Peace (IEP). It provides a 2015 that this indicator deteriorated. The number of comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, detainees without a sentence increased substantially including trends, analysis and estimates of the after March 2020, which appears to be related to economic impact of violence on the country. The MPI the partial shutdown of criminal courts during the is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading pandemic. Prior to COVID-19, legal reforms had sought measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every to reduce the use of pre-trial detention. year since 2007. In 2020, Yucatán was the most peaceful state in Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 3.5 percent in 2020. Mexico for the fourth consecutive year, followed After four years of successive deteriorations, this marks by Tlaxcala, Campeche, Chiapas and Nayarit. Baja a change in trend following the sharp increases in California remained Mexico’s least peaceful state in violence recorded between 2015 and 2018. This change 2020, followed by Colima, Zacatecas, Chihuahua and can be traced to well before the onset of the COVID-19 Guanajuato. All of the five least peaceful states had pandemic. Homicide and firearms crime rates peaked homicide rates of over 64 deaths per 100,000 people. in July 2018 and have since been gradually declining. Other crime rates began to fall in mid-2019, which also The largest improvements over the last year occurred preceded the pandemic. in Quintana Roo, Mexico City, Guerrero, Tabasco and Campeche. The largest deteriorations in 2020 occurred While improvements were occurring prior to the onset in Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Guanajuato and of COVID-19, further reductions in specific types of Michoacán. Three of these states — Zacatecas, San violence in 2020 followed the implementation of public Luis Potosí and Guanajuato — are located in the greater health measures and stay-at-home orders. Crimes Bajío region of Northern Central Mexico and share typically associated with people’s everyday movements borders with one another. In recent years, this region — such as robberies, assaults, kidnappings and has become the location of a violent struggle between extortion — all recorded notable improvements in 2020. several national drug cartels for dominance in the surging fentanyl market. To highlight the changing trend in peacefulness in Mexico, the MPI finds that falls in peacefulness Despite an overall improvement in peace in 2020, have historically occurred in most of the states. Mexico remains the country with the ninth highest Between 2015 and 2019, 25 of the 32 states recorded homicide rate in the world. It is also home to the five deteriorations in peacefulness. However, in 2020, 22 cities with the highest homicide rates in the world: states improved, while only ten deteriorated. Violence Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, Uruapan, Irapuato and Ciudad in Mexico has become increasingly concentrated, Obregón.1 The most violent city, Tijuana, recorded particularly along key drug trafficking routes. In these a homicide rate of 134 deaths per 100,000 people areas, rival groups are engaged in violent contests over in 2019, more than 20 times higher than the global territory that continue to drive the high homicide rates. average. In 2020, just six states accounted for more than half of all homicides: Guanajuato, the state of México, Baja High levels of violence in Mexico have also affected California, Chihuahua, Jalisco, and Michoacán. security forces, political figures and journalists. In 2020, 524 police officers were killed, marking a 17.5 percent Over the past year, four of the five indicators in the increase from the previous year. Political assassinations MPI have shown improvements. The largest of these are also on the rise, with at least 139 politicians, improvements was in Mexico’s violent crime rate, which government officials and candidates killed between fell by 13.3 percent. This trend was largely due to a fall September 2020 and March 2021. Journalists also face in opportunistic crimes, with the rates of robberies and danger when they cover issues related to organized assaults falling by 22.3 and 13.2 percent, respectively. crime. Mexico remains one of the most dangerous Although the violent crime rate had begun to decline places in the world to be a journalist, with at least eight slightly from late 2019, it fell significantly after March journalists and media professionals killed in connection 2020, with people spending more time at home due to with their work in 2020.2,3 the COVID-19 pandemic. There are distinct trends for male and female victims Since 2015, the national homicide rate has increased of homicide in Mexico. Ninety percent of all homicide by 84.1 percent. However, in the past year there was victims are male, with the majority of these linked a reduction of 1.3 percent. Despite this marginal to organized crime. Highlighting the gravity of the improvement, Mexico’s homicide rate remains at situation, homicide was the leading cause of death for historically high levels, at 27.8 deaths per 100,000 males aged 10 to 54.4 people, or over 35,000 victims. Prior to 2018, Mexico did not have a year on record with more than 30,000 By contrast, female deaths are more likely to be homicides. associated with intimate partner violence. Femicides have risen at a similar rate to male homicides, MEXICO PEACE INDEX 2021 | 2 increasing by 116 percent since 2015. Unlike the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and predominance of firearms in male homicide, the sustain peaceful societies, and Mexico’s Positive Peace majority of femicides are committed by some other results are considerably stronger than its ranking on the means. Global Peace Index, where it ranks 137th, highlighting its potential for improvement. The organized crime rate has increased by 40.5 percent since 2015. This follows the fragmentation of Well-Functioning Government and the Low Levels of major criminal organizations and the proliferation of Corruption were the only Pillars of Positive Peace smaller organized crime groups that have heightened that deteriorated in Mexico over the last decade. IEP competition over territory, access to drug trafficking research shows how weaknesses in both of these routes and control of illicit rackets. Gun violence has Pillars create a systemic effect that subsequently leads risen in line with organized crime activity, and violent to increases in violence. In Mexico between 2008 confrontations between rival criminal groups have and 2019, deteriorations in perceptions of corruption driven Mexico’s homicide rate. In 2020, it was estimated coincided with decreases in government effectiveness. that as many as two-thirds of homicides in Mexico were Following these changes, violent demonstrations, related to organized crime.5 perceptions of criminality and homicide rates all increased. This result shows the strong link between The economic impact of violence in Mexico is estimated Positive Peace and violence. It also highlights that to be 4.71 trillion pesos (US$221 billion) in 2020, tackling violence without addressing underlying drivers equivalent to 22.5 percent of Mexico’s GDP. may not be sufficient to solving issues in At this level it is more than seven times Mexico in the long term. higher than government expenditure on the public health system and more than six times Tackling corruption is key to addressing higher than government expenditure on the Gun violence has violence in Mexico.