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Final Report BIOLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET PN-AAJ-434 .. ... ............ .......... ee ee ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY. BUKOMBE-ISAKA ROAD LINK. TANZANIA; FINAL REPORT PERSONAL AUTHORS - CORPORATE AUTHORS - BERGER (LOUIS) INT. INC. 1981. 20BP. ARC NUMBER - TZ625.76.B496 CONTRACT NUMBER - AID/OTR-C-1788 PROJECT NUMBERS - 6980426 SUBJECT CLASS - DPOOOOOOG148 DESCRIPTORS HIGHWAY PLAIINING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CONSTRUCTION COSTS COST ANALYSIS FEASIBILITY TRANSPORTATION RURAL ROADS TANZANIA HIGHWAYS ROADS UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FINAL REPORT ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY BUKOMBE-ISAKA ROAD LINK TANZANIA Contract No. AID/OTR-C-1788 Work Order No. 3 Prepared by: LOUIS BERGER INTERNATIONAL, INC. 100 Halsted Street East Orange, N.J. 07019 April 1981 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FINAL REPORT ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY BUKOMBE-ISAKA ROAD LINK TANZANIA Contract No. AID/OTR-C-1788 Work Order No. 3 Prepared by. LOUIS BERGER INTERNATIONAL, INC. 100 Halsted Street East Orange, N.J. 07019 April 1981 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY STUDY BUKOMBE-ISAKA ROAD LINK Executive Summary Rwanda and Burundi have heretofore depended on two surface transport routes to the Indian Ocean. These routes (known as the "northern" 0ute through Uganda and Kenya to the port of Mombasa and the "southern" route across Lake Tanganyika and Tanzania to the port of Dar es Salaam) have become unsatisfactory due to considerable difficulties and delays attributable to deteriorated roadways and railroad service, port congestion and inefficient operations, numerous trans­ shipments an(7 border closures. An alternative access route to the Indian Ocean known a'3 the "middle" route, which crosses Tanzania by road to Isaka with a railroad connection to Dar es Salaam, has been proposed. This report presents the final results of a preliminary economic and technical reconnaissance survey of the Bukombe to Isaka segment of the proposed Rusomo to Isaka road, comprising thr, roaaway segment of the middle route. The study was prepared by Louis Berger International, Inc. under contract to the United States Agency for International Development (IQC contract AID/OTR-C-1788). The report, presented in six chapters, describes the data collection efforts, field investigations, project description and general background, project issues and objectives, and the economic and technical evaluation of alternative proposed improvements. Between mid--October and mid-November 1980, the project team, comprised of a highway engineer and transport economist, travelled to Kenya, Rwanda, 3urundi, and Tanzania. During this trip, the project team met with regional representatives of USAID; other donor agencies; government officials in Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania; and Impresa del Benaco, a contractor presently working in the area. The present road extends from the village of Bukombe to the village of Isaka, a distance of 117.5 kilometers. The city of Kahama, the district capital, is located on the project road approximately 72 kilometers east of Bukombe. The road traverses flat and gently rolling terrain and the land adjacent to the road consists of villages practicing subsistence agriculture and animal husbandry. i The existing 5.5 meter wide Bukombe to Isaka roadway has a generally good horizontal alignment. The vertical alignment is less satisfactory, however, primarily because long sections of the road that are level with the adjacent terrain tend to flood in the rainy season. This condition is further aggravated by a lack cf adequate maintenance and the fact that all of the bridges ;nd cilverts, although in fair to good condition, are narrower than the present carriageway width. In addition to the need for roadway improvemonfs, four additional constraints must be resolved if the "middle" route is to properly serve eastern Zaire, Burundi and Rwanda foreign trade: improvements in road maintenance, improved rail services, reduction in transshipment time at the port of Dar es Salaam and provision of an efficient rail/road tra-isfer facility at Isaka. The present inability of the Ministry of Works (MOW) to maintain the road is inhibited by budgetary, administrative and staffing problems. Several -programs,however, are presently under way to improve the road maintenance levels in Tanzania, the most significant amona them being the Fourth and Fifth Highway Projects funded by the World Bank. The prospects of the Tanzanian Railway Corporation (TRC) improving its service for traffic to and from Burundi and Rwanda depend essentially on future operational and management improvements. Since 60 locomotives and 455 wagons were to be delivered to the TRC in November 1980 through international assistance, this should provide sufficient rolling stock to meet the TRC's need. TRC's capacity to handle the ZBR traffic via the middle road will depend also on the timely construction of suitable transshipment facilities at Isaka. Several programs are now under way, however, to strengthen the TRC management staff, modernize its communications system, upgrade its permanent way and improve operations. In the past, the port of Dar es Salaam has also proved a serious bottleneck. Since late 1980, however, congestion at the port has been alleviated, greatly reducing the transshipment times. Several programs under way to strengthen the port management and improve its operations promise to reduce the transshipment time even further. The anticipated improvements in railroad and port operations in Tanzania, coupled with lower transport costs for Rwanda and Burundi as a result of a new Bukombe-Isaka road link, are likely to result in a diversion of a significant portion (80 percent) of Rwandan surface foreian trade and a smaller share (10 percent) of Burundi surface foreign trade from the ii alternative routes. Estimates of future international traffic diverted to the middle route were derived from forecasts of the future fo- ign trade demand for Rwanda and Burundi, with 43 trucks per day projected in 1990, increasing to 84 trucks per day in 2004. Tanzanian drmestic traffic on the Bukombe-Isaka road is estimated to grow at an average annual growtc rate between 5 and 7 percent. By 1985, Tanzanian traffic is projected to be 120 to 135 vehicles pcr day with 50 percent heavy trucks. By the yeaL 2004, the Tanzanian domestic traffic is expected to reach 318 to 489 (at 5 and 7 percent traffic growth). Generated traffic is projected to peak in 1985 at 15 percent of the domestic traffic, or 18 to 20 vehicles per day. In the final economic evaluation, two levels of improvement were considered, a comparison of the existing gravel road (117.5 kilometers, 5.5 meters) to a new gravel road (112.5 kilometers, 6.5 meters) and to a new paved (DBST) road (112.5 kilometers, 6.5 meters), both on new alignment. It was assumed each alternative would be completed by 1985. By the year 2004, traffic for a new gravel road would range between 404 to 592 vehicles per day while for a new paved -oad tLaffic would range between 450 and 646 vehicles per day. The financial costs in 1980 prices for the construction of each alternative would be: Alternative Financial Cost Local Foreign Currency Currency Total 112.5 km new gravel road 99.43 5.78 150.21 112.5 km new paved (DBST) road 116.33 73.43 189.76 Each proposed improvement was evaluated on the basis of assumed traffic growth rates of 5 and 7 percent for the period 1981-2004, including and excluding a portion of the cost of the proposed improvements to the Isaka rail facility and with and without passenger time savings. Finally, in order to verify whether or not the econoric viability of the proposed improvements are significantly affected by changes in the construction costs and economic benefits, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results are discussed in detail in Article 6.8. Considering the number of variables and complexity of the analysis required by incorporating traffic volume sensitive maintenance costs, differing levels of generated and diverted traffic aid vehicle operating cost variations for road and iii shoulder widths, the ConsuItants developed a computer model for the analysis (see Article .8.!). The economic evaluation of constructing a new 112.5 kilometer, 6.5 meter paved road to replace the existing 117,5 kilometer Bukombe-Isaka highway produced a relatively attractive EIRR (16.0 to 18.1 percent) as shown below: Isaka Station Time B/C Costs Costs ETRR 10% 12% 5% Traffic Growth w/o w 16.45 1.66 1.39 w/o w/o 16.18 1.64 1.37 w w 16.02 1.62 1.36 w w/o 15.80 1.59 1.33 7% Traffic Growth w/o w 18.08 1.89 1.58 w/o w/o 17.81 1.85 1.55 w w 17.70 1.84 1.54 w w/o 17.45 1.80 1.51 The economic evaluation of replacing the existing gravel road with a new gravel road at 5 and 7 percent traffic growth produced lower EIRRs, as shown below. Isaka Station Time B/C Costs Costs EIRR T% 12­ 5% Traffic Growth w/o w 6.40 0.64 0.55 w/o w/o 6.28 0.63 0.54 w w 6.15 0.62 0.53 w w/o 5.02 0.61 0.52 7% Traffic Growth w/o w 8.87 0.88 0.73 w/o w/o 8.72 0.87 0.72 w w 8.52 0.85 0.71 w w,) 8.36 0.84 0,69 The reason for the siqnificant differences is that vehicle operating cost savings for traffic transferring from the exist­ ing gravel road to a new gravel road were only 9.4 percent, while for traffic transferring from the existing road to a new paved road the savings were 57.05 percent.
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