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Al-Salam REIT : Mixed Outlook Ahead

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Al-Salam REIT : Mixed Outlook Ahead Company Update Malaysia 22 July 2019 Property | REITS Al-Salam REIT (SALAM MK) Neutral (Maintained) Mixed Outlook Ahead Target Price (Return) MYR0.90 (-1%) Price: MYR0.91 Market Cap: USD126m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 0.07m/0.94m We resume coverage on Al-Salam REIT with NEUTRAL recommendation Analyst and TP of MYR0.90, 1% downside. We believe the outlook of its key asset – Komtar JBCC – has changed due to competition from new malls in Johor Muhammad Syafiq Bahru. With the absence of its anchor tenant, Metrojaya, we believe the +603 9280 8867 REIT’s earnings will be supported by the newly acquired QSR properties, and [email protected] full-year contribution from Mydin Gong Badak. Komtar JBCC. We expect Komtar JBCC’s revenue to drop this year, mainly due to lower occupancy rate of 62% (vs 95% in FY18) as a result of the departure of its anchor tenant – Metrojaya at end-2018. Metrojaya previously occupied 30% of the mall’s NLA, while the mall contributed 3% of the REIT’s revenue in FY18. The ex-Metrojaya area is now undergoing reconfiguration to create more space for mini anchor tenants and speciality stores, as these Share Performance (%) tenants typically command higher rental rate psf. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Competition – the key challenge. Komtar JBCC has not benefited from the Absolute 11.2 (4.3) 2.9 11.9 0.6 spillover of footfall despite being located next to City Square. We are also Relative 12.4 (5.5) 0.4 12.6 2.5 cautious on the overall prospects of Komtar JBCC given competition from 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.77 - 0.94 new malls in Johor Bharu. Paradigm Mall, Johor Bahru – opened in late 2017 – is about 12km away from Komtar JBCC. The mall has a strong occupancy rate of 93%, and total NLA of c.697 sqf. Meanwhile, the newly opened Midvalley Southkey Megamall, only 6km away from Komtar JBCC, commenced operations in April, with total NLA of 1.5m sqf and committed occupancy of 85%. Given the sizes and tenant mix of these two new malls, we believe they would exert additional pressure to Komtar JBCC’s rental reversion moving forward considering that 75% of its tenants are up for renewal next year. Mydin’s first full-year contribution. The acquisition of Mydin Gong Badak was completed in September last year at a purchase consideration of MYR155m – fully funded via borrowings. The acquisition is yield accretive to the REIT of c.6.4%, and contributed about MYR3.5m of revenue in FY18. Meanwhile, the REIT also recently completed another batch of acquisitions – Source: Bloomberg 17 QSR properties in March. We believe the full-year contribution of Mydin, and new QSR properties would help cushion the absence of income from Metrojaya in Komtar JBCC. Gearing near the roof. Post-completion of the acquisition of 17 QSR properties in 1Q19, the REIT’s gearing has reached 48%. As another five QSR properties are targeted to be acquired in September, its gearing may rise to 49%. We believe this is at a critical level, as the REIT might hit the gearing limit of 50%, in the event Komtar JBCC suffers negative revaluation. Thus, we do not rule out the potential of share placement going forward. NEUTRAL. Our DDM-based TP of MYR0.90 is based on 95% dividend payout, and 1% terminal growth rate. We resume coverage on the REIT – our previous recommendation was Buy and TP of MYR1.20. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total turnover (MYRm) 80 82 86 86 91 57 58 65 65 67 Net property income (MYRm) Reported net profit (MYRm) 36 32 30 29 31 Total distributable income 35 31 29 27 29 DPS(MYRm) (MYR) 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 DPS growth (%) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 P/BV (x) 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 Dividend Yield (%) 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.7 Return on average equity (%) 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.6 5.0 Return on average assets (%) 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.4 Gross gearing (%) 35 44 49 49 49 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Al-Salam REIT Malaysia Company Update 22 July 2019 Property | REITs Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Malaysia Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 REIT EPS (MYR) 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 Al-Salam REIT DPS (MYR) 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 SALAM MK BVPS (MYR) 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 580.00 580.00 580.00 580.00 580.00 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Dividend discount model Recurring P/E (x) 14.7 16.4 17.2 18.2 16.8 P/E (x) 12.9 12.9 17.2 18.2 16.8 Key drivers P/B (x) 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 Specialty stores replacing Metrojaya are expected to command higher rental rates. FCF Yield (%) 9.2 10.0 11.7 13.0 12.4 Dividend yield (%) 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.7 Key risks EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 15.3 17.2 17.1 16.4 Upside risk include recovery of Komtar JBCC mall. EV/EBIT (x) 13.6 15.3 17.2 17.1 16.4 Meanwhile, downside risks include prolonged weak domestic consumer sentiment and oversupply of shopping space, especially in Klang Valley. Negative Income statement (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F revaluation should also pose regulation risk to the Total turnover 80 82 86 86 91 REIT, given the current gearing level of the REIT. Gross profit 57 58 65 65 67 EBITDA 63 67 66 66 68 Company Profile Depreciation and amortisation - - - - - Al-Salam REIT is a diversified shariah-compliant REIT involved in the retail, office and industrial segments. Operating profit 57 58 65 65 67 Net interest (18) (20) (33) (34) (34) Income from associates & JVs - - - - - Exceptional income - net 5 8 - - - Pre-tax profit 41 40 30 29 31 Taxation - - - - - Minority interests - - - - - Recurring net profit(adj) 36 32 30 29 31 Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Change in working capital (5) (2) (1) 6 1 Cash flow from operations 48 52 61 68 65 Capex (0) (0) - - - Cash flow from investing activities 0 (6) 1 1 1 Dividends paid (36) (30) (29) (27) (29) Cash flow from financing activities - - - - - Cash at beginning of period (3) (1) 1 7 2 Net change in cash - - - - - Ending balance cash 2 (1) (2) (1) 6 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total cash and equivalents 13 12 13 21 23 Tangible fixed assets 928 1,094 1,209 1,209 1,209 Intangible assets - - - - - Total investments - - - - - Total other assets 48 50 47 41 41 Total assets 989 1,156 1,269 1,270 1,273 Short-term debt 0.37 1.08 0.05 0.05 0.05 Total long-term debt 348 510 625 625 625 Other liabilities - - - - - Total liabilities 372 536 647 646 647 Shareholders' equity 616 621 622 624 625 Minority interests - - - - - Total equity 616 621 622 624 625 Net debt 335 498 611 604 602 Total liabilities & equity 989 1,156 1,269 1,270 1,273 Key metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Revenue growth (%) 5.1 2.6 5.3 (1.0) 6.0 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 612.8 549.9 522.3 495.6 535.3 Gross margin (%) 71.1 70.9 74.9 75.8 74.2 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 78.9 81.4 76.1 77.0 75.4 Net profit margin (%) 44.4 38.8 35.0 33.6 34.2 Dividend payout ratio (%) 97.9 97.3 95.0 95.0 95.0 Capex/sales (%) (0.5) (0.5) - - - Interest cover (x) 3.6 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Al-Salam REIT Malaysia Company Update 22 July 2019 Property | REITs Figure 1: Al-Salam’s REIT NPI Source: Company data, RHB Figure 2: Realised income and dividend yield Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Al-Salam REIT Malaysia Company Update 22 July 2019 Property | REITs Figure 3: Valuation FYE Dec (MYRm) FY20F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F FY27F FY28F FY29F EPU (sen) 4.96 5.35 5.50 5.36 5.41 5.37 5.50 5.57 5.68 5.72 DPU (sen) 4.71 5.09 5.22 5.09 5.14 5.10 5.23 5.29 5.39 5.43 Dividend payout 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DPU 4.71 5.09 5.22 5.09 5.14 5.10 5.23 5.29 5.39 5.43 Terminal value 99.00 FV 4.71 5.09 5.22 5.09 5.14 5.10 5.23 5.29 5.39 104.44 Discount factor 0.94 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 PV 4.42 4.48 4.32 3.96 3.75 3.50 3.37 3.20 3.06 55.70 Total PV 89.8 Cost of equity breakdown Cost of equity Ke Risk free rate (RFR) 3.80% Beta 0.6 Market risk premium 4.8% Cost of equity Ke 6.5% 1+Ke 1.065 Terminal value assumptions Terminal value DPU 5.43 Cost of equity Ke 6.5% Terminal growth rate 1.0% Terminal value 99.00 Fair value (RM) 0.90 Current share price 0.91 Upside / (Downside) -1.1% Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) RHB Guide to Investment Ratings known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months statements.
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