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Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security

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Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs June 8, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL31339 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Summary The Obama Administration is facing a security environment in Iraq vastly improved over that which prevailed during 2005-2007, although still not completely peaceful or without potential to deteriorate significantly. The “turnaround” has been widely attributed to the “troop surge” announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007 (“New Way Forward”). Recent Defense Department reports assess that overall frequency of violence is down to levels not seen since 2003, yet insurgents are still able to conduct high profile attacks in several major cities. These attacks have not caused a modification of the February 27, 2009, announcement by President Obama that all U.S. combat brigades would be withdrawn by August 31, 2010, leaving a residual presence of 35,000 – 50,000 U.S. trainers, advisers, and mentors, with these to be withdrawn by the end of 2011. This drawdown is in line with a U.S.-Iraq “Security Agreement,” ratified by Iraq’s parliament on November 27, 2008. Some U.S. officials believe that insurgents are waiting to take advantage of the drawdown and that a U.S. military presence might be needed beyond 2011 to ensure further political progress and produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. Others worry that some of the many remaining political disputes among Iraqi factions could escalate and reignite civil conflict. The political disputes played a role in the January 31, 2009, provincial elections in fourteen of Iraq’s eighteen provinces, and the aftermath, as Iraq heads toward the next national elections in January 2010. The provincial elections went ahead peacefully and produced a victory for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his allies, but also exposed splits between Maliki and other erstwhile Shiite allies. The elections exacerbated tensions between the Iraqi Kurds and Maliki over Kurdish demands for control of disputed areas. The progress in 2008 came after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein’s regime, only to see Iraq wracked by a violent Sunni Arab-led insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq’s government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs—without clear movement toward national political reconciliation— stimulated debate within the 110th Congress over whether a stable Iraq could ever be achieved, and at what cost. With an apparent consensus within the Administration to wind down the U.S. combat in Iraq, U.S. economic and security aid to Iraq has been reduced since FY2008. For further information, see CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman, Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; and CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff. Congressional Research Service Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Contents Policy in the 1990s Emphasized Containment .............................................................................3 The Clinton Administration, the Iraq Liberation Act, and Major Anti-Saddam Factions .............................................................................................................................3 Post-September 11, 2001: Regime Change and War.....................................................................6 Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)..............................................................................................7 Congressional and Security Council Action.....................................................................8 Post-Saddam Transition and Governance.....................................................................................9 Transition Process.................................................................................................................9 Occupation Period/Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)...............................................9 Transitional Administrative Law (TAL).........................................................................10 Sovereignty Handover/Interim (Allawi) Government ....................................................10 Elections in 2005 ......................................................................................................... 11 Political Reconciliation, 2009 Elections, and “Benchmarks”................................................ 11 January 31, 2009, Provincial Elections and Context.......................................................12 Elections Going Forward...............................................................................................14 Iraqi Pledges and Status of Accomplishment .................................................................16 Regional and International Diplomatic Efforts to Promote Iraq Stability........................18 Human Rights and Rule of Law ....................................................................................19 U.N. Involvement in Governance Issues........................................................................21 Economic Reconstruction and U.S. Assistance ..........................................................................21 Oil Revenues ................................................................................................................22 Lifting U.S. Sanctions...................................................................................................23 Debt Relief/WTO Membership/IMF..............................................................................24 Security Challenges and Responses...........................................................................................25 Sunni Arab-Led Insurgency and Al Qaeda in Iraq................................................................25 Sunni “Awakening” and “Sons of Iraq” Fighters............................................................26 Sectarian Violence and Shiite Militias/Civil War .................................................................29 Shiite-on-Shiite Violence/March 2008 Basra Battles/Status of JAM...............................30 Formation of JAM Offshoots.........................................................................................30 Iranian Support .............................................................................................................31 Iraq’s Northern Border ........................................................................................................32 U.S. “Troop Surge” Effects and Drawdown Plans................................................................33 “Troop Surge”/Baghdad Security Plan/“Fardh Qanoon” ................................................33 Surge Assessments and Troop Drawdown Plans ............................................................34 Building Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)....................................................................................35 ISF Weaponry ...............................................................................................................36 Coalition-Building and Maintenance ...................................................................................39 Coalition Mandate/SOFA....................................................................................................41 U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement........................................................................................42 Iraq Study Group Report, Legislative Proposals, and Options for the Obama Administration.......................................................................................................................43 Iraq Study Group Report .....................................................................................................43 Further Options: Altering Troop Levels or Mission..............................................................45 Further Troop Increase ..................................................................................................45 Immediate and Complete Withdrawal............................................................................45 Congressional Research Service Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security Withdrawal Timetable...................................................................................................45 Troop Mission Change..................................................................................................46 Planning for Withdrawal ...............................................................................................47 Requiring More Time Between Deployments ................................................................47 Stepped Up International and Regional Diplomacy..............................................................47 Reorganizing the Political Structure, and “Federalism”........................................................48 Reorganize the Existing Power Structure.......................................................................48 Support the Dominant Factions .....................................................................................48 “Federalism”/Decentralization/Break-Up Options .........................................................49
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