Water Data to Answer Urgent Water Policy Questions: Monitoring design, available data, and filling data gaps for determining whether shale gas development activities contaminate surface water or groundwater in the Susquehanna River Basin The second in a series of three reports focused on water data needed to address water policy issues. The first report focuses on agricultural management practices in the Lake Erie drainage basin and the next report will provide an overview of existing water-quality data across the Northeast-Midwest region. A report published by The Northeast-Midwest Institute in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey For More Information For more information about the Northeast-Midwest Institute please see www.nemw.org. Additional information about this report and associated companion reports is available at www.nemw.org. Citation Betanzo, E.A., Hagen, E.R., Wilson, J.T., Reckhow, K.H., Hayes, L., Argue, D.M., and Cangelosi, A.A., 2016, Water data to answer urgent water policy questions: Monitoring design, available data and filling data gaps for determining whether shale gas development activities contaminate surface water or groundwater in the Susquehanna River Basin, Northeast-Midwest Institute Report, 238 p., http://www.nemw.org DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4051.6885 Funding This work was made possible by a grant from the U. S. Geological Survey. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. ISBN: 978-0-9864448-2-1 Cover photos: USGS (hydraulic fracturing drill site and stream monitoring photos); Ostroff Law via Wikipedia Commons (hydraulic fracturing site in Warren Center); Daniel Soeder, U.S. Department of Energy (Marcellus outcrop background photo) Copyright © 2016 Northeast-Midwest Institute Project Team Elin A. Betanzo, Northeast-Midwest Institute, Project Manager Erik R. Hagen, Northeast-Midwest Institute, Lead Researcher John T. Wilson, U.S. Geological Survey, Hydrologic Data Analyst Kenneth H. Reckhow, Professor Emeritus at Duke University, Statistical Analyst Laura Hayes, U.S. Geological Survey, GIS Specialist Denise M. Argue, U.S. Geological Survey, Hydrologic Data Analyst Allegra A. Cangelosi, Northeast-Midwest Institute, Senior Policy Analyst, Environmental Projects Technical Advisory Committee Kate Dunlap, Trout Unlimited Andrew Gavin, Susquehanna River Basin Commission Adam Goehner, Pembina Institute Peter Murdoch, U.S. Geological Survey James Saiers, Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Tony Shaw (retired), Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Bert Smith, formerly with Chesapeake Energy, now with EnviroClean Products and Services Daniel Soeder, Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory John Wilson, U.S. Geological Survey David Yoxtheimer, Penn State University Technical Reviewers Jeffrey Deacon, U.S. Geological Survey William Kappel, U.S. Geological Survey Dennis Risser, U.S. Geological Survey Gary Rowe, U.S. Geological Survey Shale Gas Development Case Study Report ii Blue Ribbon Project Steering Committee Glenn Benoy, International Joint Commission Paul A. Biedrzycki, City of Milwaukee Health Department Suzanne Bricker, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Allegra Cangelosi, Northeast-Midwest Institute Julius Ciaccia, Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District Thomas Davenport, Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5 Joseph Depinto, Limnotech Blayne Diacont, Range Resources Timothy Eder, Great Lakes Commission Norman Grannemann, U.S. Geological Survey Carlton Haywood, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin Jonathan Higgins, The Nature Conservancy Jennifer Hoffman, Chesapeake Energy Susy King, New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission James Miller, Organic Valley Jeffrey Myers, New York Department of Environmental Conservation Laura Rubin, Huron River Watershed Council Robert Tudor (retired), Delaware River Basin Commission Mark Walbridge, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service Susan Weaver, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Shale Gas Development Case Study Report iii The Northeast-Midwest Institute President and CEO Foreword No resource is more vital to the future of the Northeast-Midwest (NEMW) region—its population, industry, food production, and quality of life--than its naturally abundant fresh water. Yet is the region’s capacity to monitor the state of this natural asset and changes to it over time commensurate with its value? Sufficient water monitoring capacity and information is particularly of concern as large-scale development activities such as shale gas extraction and agriculture dramatically expand freshwater use. As a Washington-based, nonprofit, and nonpartisan research organization dedicated to economic vitality, environmental quality, and regional equity for Northeast and Midwest states, the Northeast-Midwest Institute (NEMWI) could hardly ignore this critical question for the region and its environment. Both the economic benefits and potential water-quality impacts from these issues are high priorities for policy makers. To manage these activities responsibly, policy-makers need access to regional water-quality monitoring information that is timely, credible and useful. NEMWI teamed with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to investigate the capacity of the NEMW region’s water monitoring programs to support informed policy decisions. NEMWI and the USGS undertook two case studies to illustrate the types and amounts of data needed to answer critical water policy questions, and determine how much of those water-quality data are currently available. This report summarizes one case study: our investigation of water-quality data relating to shale gas development in the Susquehanna River Basin, and is a companion to a similar case study investigation of water-quality data relating to nutrient enrichment in the Lake Erie drainage basin. The results of these case studies will inform a qualitative review of water data availability across the NEMW region in a subsequent State of the Region Report. In December of 2014, the State of New York decided that high-volume hydraulic fracturing development should not proceed because the current scientific information is insufficient to determine the level of risk to public health and whether the risks can be adequately managed (New York State Department of Health, 2014). A recent draft report by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) studying the impacts of hydraulic fracturing on drinking water resources nationwide did not find evidence of widespread systemic impacts on drinking water in the United States; however, the limited amount of data collected before and during hydraulic fracturing activities reduced their ability to determine whether hydraulic fracturing affected water quality in cases of alleged contamination (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2015a). These two reports make clear the urgency and the need for reliable water-quality data to support policy decisions around shale gas development. In this report, the NEMWI in cooperation with the USGS investigates the minimum quantity of water- quality data that would be necessary to detect a statistically significant change in water quality related to shale gas development in the Susquehanna River Basin, and analyzes whether those data are currently being generated. Among the significant findings of the case study are the following: • The existing surface-water quality data in the Susquehanna River Basin are insufficient to detect water-quality change related to shale gas development, but additional monitoring can build on Shale Gas Development Case Study Report iv available surface-water data. Key steps to generating the needed data include increased monitoring at a subset of priority monitoring sites that includes increased sampling frequency, sampling for additional priority parameters and streamflow, and commitment to long-term monitoring. • The publicly available groundwater-quality data in the Susquehanna River Basin are not sufficient to detect whether shale gas development is contaminating groundwater, and the available data are not adequate to serve as the foundation of a new monitoring program. • The needed groundwater data can be collected through the design and implementation of a systematic, long-term groundwater monitoring program for detecting groundwater quality change related to shale gas development in the Susquehanna River Basin, building on data collected by the shale gas industry, if possible. • The most effective data collection can be achieved through a coordinating entity with representation from water monitoring organizations, shale gas industry, domestic well owners, and citizens to ensure all the necessary supporting information is incorporated into an effective monitoring design. Ensuring quality fresh water, now and in the future, is a priority of the highest order for the Northeast- Midwest region. The research presented in this report documents that existing data are not sufficient to detect water-quality change related to shale gas development for surface water or groundwater in the Susquehanna River Basin, perhaps the most data-rich river basin with active shale gas development. Surely collecting and using the needed information to identify effective policy solutions for protecting water resources is a first step to achieving this critical environmental and economic goal for the Northeast- Midwest region in the years ahead. Michael