Regional Monitoring Networks to Detect Climate Change Effects in Stream Ecosystems
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DRAFT EPA/600/R-14/341 DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE November 2014 External Review Draft Regional Monitoring Networks to Detect Climate Change Effects in Stream Ecosystems NOTICE THIS DOCUMENT IS A DRAFT. This document is distributed solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by EPA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency determination or policy. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. National Center for Environmental Assessment Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20460 DISCLAIMER This document is distributed solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. It has not been formally disseminated by EPA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency determination or policy. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use, but is for descriptive purposes only. This document does not supplant official published methods and does not constitute an endorsement of a particular procedure or method. ABSTRACT The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is working with its regional offices, states, tribes, and other organizations to establish regional monitoring networks (RMNs) at which biological, thermal, and hydrologic data will be collected from freshwater wadeable streams to quantify and monitor changes in baseline conditions, including climate change effects. RMNs have been established in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, and efforts are expanding into other regions. The need for RMNs stems from the lack of long-term, contemporaneous biological, thermal, and hydrologic data, particularly at minimally disturbed sites. Data collected at RMNs will be used to detect temporal trends; investigate relationships between biological, thermal, and hydrologic data; explore ecosystem responses and recovery from extreme weather events; test hypotheses and predictive models related to climate change; and quantify natural variability. RMN surveys build on existing bioassessment efforts, with the goal of collecting comparable data that can be pooled efficiently at a regional level. This document describes the development of the current RMNs for riffle-dominated, freshwater wadeable streams. It contains information on selection of candidate sites, expectations for data collection, the rationale for collecting these data, and provides examples of how the RMN data will be used and analyzed. Preferred citation: U.S. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). (2014) Regional monitoring networks to detect climate change effects in stream ecosystems. (EPA/600/R-14/341). Washington, DC: National Center for Environmental Assessment, Washington. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ncea. This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy. 11/26/14 ii DRAFT―DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................... viii PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................... ix AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTORS, AND REVIEWERS ...................................................................x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... xi 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................1 2. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................2 2.1. PROCESS FOR SETTING UP THE REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORKS (RMNS) ..................................................................................................2 2.2. SITE SELECTION ........................................................................................................3 3. DATA COLLECTION ...........................................................................................................6 3.1. BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS ......................................................................................8 3.1.1. Macroinvertebrates ..........................................................................................11 3.1.2. Fish ...................................................................................................................16 3.1.3. Periphyton ........................................................................................................17 3.2. TEMPERATURE DATA ............................................................................................17 3.3. HYDROLOGIC DATA ...............................................................................................20 3.4. PHYSICAL HABITAT ...............................................................................................25 3.5. WATER CHEMISTRY ...............................................................................................27 3.6. PHOTODOCUMENTATION .....................................................................................27 3.7. GEOSPATIAL DATA .................................................................................................28 4. SUMMARIZING AND SHARING REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORK (RMN) DATA.......................................................................................................................29 4.1. BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS ....................................................................................29 4.2. THERMAL STATISTICS ...........................................................................................35 4.3. HYDROLOGIC STATISTICS ....................................................................................37 4.4. PHYSICAL HABITAT, WATER QUALITY, AND GEOSPATIAL DATA ............43 5. DATA USAGE .....................................................................................................................44 5.1. TEMPORAL TRENDS ...............................................................................................44 5.1.1. Basic Analytical Techniques ............................................................................44 5.1.2. Trend Detection for Taxonomic versus Traits-Based Biological Indicators..........................................................................................................47 5.1.3. Tracking Changes in Biological Condition with Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) Models ...................................................................................48 5.2. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA ......................................................................................48 5.2.1. Basic Analytical Techniques ............................................................................49 This document is a draft for review purposes only and does not constitute Agency policy. 11/26/14 iii DRAFT―DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 5.2.2. Ecologically Meaningful Variables and Thresholds ........................................51 5.2.3. Interactive Effects of Climate Change with Other Stressors ...........................52 5.3. RESPONSE AND RECOVERY OF ORGANISMS TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS .................................................................................................53 5.4. HYPOTHESES AND PREDICTIVE MODELS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ...................................................................................54 5.4.1. Broad-Scale Vulnerability Assessments ..........................................................55 5.4.2. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) ..............................................................55 5.4.3. Differing Thermal Vulnerabilities ...................................................................56 5.4.4. Testing the Performance of Models that Predict Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow .....................................................................................57 5.5. QUANTIFYING NATURAL VARIABILITY ...........................................................57 6. NEXT STEPS .......................................................................................................................58 6.1. MOST IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES ............................................................................58 6.2. FUTURE STEPS .........................................................................................................60 7. CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................61 8. LITERATURE CITED .........................................................................................................62 APPENDIX A REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS ................................................................ A-1 APPENDIX B CHECKLIST FOR STARTING A REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORK (RMN) ............................................................................................................B-1