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Global and Russian Energy Outlook 2019

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Global and Russian Energy Outlook 2019 The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences ПРОГНОЗ РАЗВИТИЯ ЭНЕРГЕТИКИ МИРА И РОССИИ 2019 И РОССИИ ЭНЕРГЕТИКИ МИРА РАЗВИТИЯ ПРОГНОЗ The Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2019 Moscow 2019 The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences The Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2019 Moscow 2019 THE OUTLOOK WAS PREPARED BY: The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS) Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Academic Director: A. A. Makarov, Research Advisor, ERI RAS Project Manager: T. A. Mitrova, Director at the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, Research Advisor for ‘Forecasting the Development of the Global Energy Sector and Global Energy Markets and Determining Russia’s Role and Position within Them’, ERI RAS V.A. Kulagin, Head of Global and Russian Energy Research Department, ERI RAS; Head of Centre, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics. This document presents the results of a study involving the long-term forecasting of the world’s energy markets and calculations carried out using the SCANER information modelling system. It presents a comprehensive assessment of trends in the development of the energy sector – globally, regionally, and nationally – including volumes of consumption, production, processing, energy trading, prices, the parameters of competition, the dynamics of the commissioning of new facilities, and volumes of CO2 emissions. Three forecast scenarios – Conservative, Innovative and Energy Transition – reflect key uncertainties in the development of the energy sector. The development of the Russian energy sector is also examined, taking into account the impact of the situation in foreign markets. The prospects for energy markets are analysed in detail, taking into account economic, demographic, technological, political, climatic, and other factors, and the reaction of markets and key players to these factors is examined. The Outlook is intended for those involved in research and business, as well as for government officials engaged in the development of energy and the economy, and may be used for educational purposes. Global and Russian Energy Outlook 2019 / ed. A.A. Makarov, T.A. Mitrova, V.A. Kulagin; ERI RAS – Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO – Moscow, 2019. – 210 p. - ISBN 978-5-91438-029-5 ISBN 978-5-91438-029-5 © Energy Research Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, 2019 © Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, 2019 2 GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2019 AUTHORS V.V. Brilliantova Member of the Working Group at the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO Y.V. Galkin Senior Engineer, ERI RAS A.A. Galkina Research Fellow, ERI RAS L. M. Grigoriev Associate Professor, National Research University, Higher School of Economics. D.A. Grushevenko Research Fellow, ERI RAS, Leading Expert, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics. E.V. Grushevenko Expert, the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, Research Fellow ERI RAS N.V. Dunaeva Engineer, ERI RAS S.A. Kapitonov Analyst, Natural Gas, the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO N.O. Kapustin Junior Research Fellow, ERI RAS ,Senior Lecturer, Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas E.O. Kozina Research Fellow, ERI RAS, Expert, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics. V.A. Kulagin Head of Global and Russian Energy Research Department, ERI RAS; Head of Centre, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics. A.A. Makarov Academic Director, ERI RAS V.A. Malakhov Head of Department for Studies on interdependencies of the energy sector and the economy, ERI RAS S.I. Melnikova Research Fellow, ERI RAS, Expert, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics, Senior Lecturer, Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas Y.V. Melnikov Senior Analyst, the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO I.Y. Mironova Engineer – Researcher, ERI RAS, Research Fellow, Research Centre for Energy Policy, the European University in St. Petersburg T. A. Mitrova Director at the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, Research Advisor for ‘Forecasting the Development of the Global Energy Sector and Global Energy Markets and Determining Russia’s Role and Position within Them’, ERI RAS I.N. Ovchinnikova Senior Engineer, ERI RAS, Expert, Institute of Pricing and Regulation of Natural Monopolies, Higher School of Economics. A.A. Perdero Manager of Internet of Energy project, the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO I.Y. Ryapin Leading Researcher, «First Imagine Ventures» A.A. Khokhlov Head of Electric Power Sector research division, the Energy Centre, Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO D.D. Yakovleva Engineer, ERI RAS 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS The main conclusions ...............................................................................................................................................................................................5 Section 1. Global energy: on the threshold of an energy transition ....................................................................................................... 8 What is the energy transition? ........................................................................................................................................................14 New energy policy priorities ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Seven technological directions which will change the global energy sector ..............................................................20 The Energy transition - consequences ....................................................................................................................................... 45 Section 2. The world at the crossroads .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 Scenario assumptions ....................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Primary energy consumption .........................................................................................................................................................56 Electric power sector ........................................................................................................................................................................62 Renewable energy ...............................................................................................................................................................................66 Nuclear power ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 Liquid fuel market ................................................................................................................................................................................74 Natural gas market............................................................................................................................................................................102 Solid fuel market ................................................................................................................................................................................118 Positions of the key players ...........................................................................................................................................................126 CO2 emissions ......................................................................................................................................................................................128 Section 3. Scenario forecast of the Russian energy sector development .......................................................................................132 Scenario assumptions for Russia ................................................................................................................................................132 GDP energy intensity and natural gas prices ..........................................................................................................................137 Primary energy consumption and the fuel mix ......................................................................................................................140 Energy Production .............................................................................................................................................................................142 Electric Power Sector .......................................................................................................................................................................143 Oil industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................147 Gas industry ..........................................................................................................................................................................................153
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