Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP region
Port Demand Analysis Center of Korea Maritime Institute Korea Maritime Institute
Shipping/Port Establish national action plan for shipping and port sectors Develop policies for the development of industries Policies related to shipping and port International logistics and cooperation in shipping and port sector Run International Logistics Investment Analysis Center and Port Demand Analysis Center Analyze trend and policies related to shipping, port and logistics
Marine Policy/ Establish national action plan on marine policy Policy related to the development and use of marine resources Marine Environment Policy and management of marine territory including Dokdo island and Ieoh Island Policy related to preservation and management of marine space and marine ecosystem Integrated management of exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
Establish national policy for fisheries and fishing Fisheries Industry/ community sectors Fishing Community Develop fisheries related policies and improve institution Use and develop coastal area efficiently Strategy to respond to fisheries negotiation under FTA and WTO/DDA Enter overseas fisheries market and handle international cooperation on fisheries Port Demand Analysis Center(PDAC) Forecast on Item-Specific Traffic Volume
Forecast at Item Level Compare with Container the previous Oil forecast
Coal
Steel
Iron Ore Total traffic Reflect the Car volume Confirm forecast in forecast at port traffic Other Ores port each port volume master Sand forecast (30 trade ports plan Cement + Other ports) Chemical Products General Goods Grains Compare with berth Wood development Scrap plan Metal * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Total Cargo in Korea
CAGR: 3.4%
’000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Oil Steel/Iron Coal Car Others 28% Ore12% 9% 5% 46% Container Throughput in Korea
Incheon: 2,377 Nationwide: 25,681
Pyeongtaek Dangjin: 566 It is forecast that container traffic volume will be 31 million TEU in Korea and 23.5 million TEU in Busan port by 2020. Ulsan: 385
Busan: 19,469
Gwangyang:Gwangyang: 2,3272,327
CAGR: 5.4%
’000 teu
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Container
Export/Import Full Economic Indicators Forecast on Container (GDP, amount of seaborne) total export/import Difference between full Export/Import container import and export, container traffic Empty Container actual empty container volume
Port specific forecast on Analyze the share By area ǭ by sea route of each port ǭ by port export/import container volume Transshipment container for each GDP of major trading Port-specific forecast on partners transshipment container port
Coastal container Weighted moving Port-specific forecast on for each port average costal container
Port-specific forecast on total container traffic volume
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Coal
Import of bituminous coal/ Plant capacity For generation Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant
Import Bituminous coal import volume/ Port- Crude steel production capacity specific For steel forecast making Anthracite consumption amount/ on coal Crude steel production capacity volume
cement Time series analysis production
Coastal Time series analysis
Excluded from Export Account for 0.04% forecast
It is forecast that coal traffic volume in Korea will reach 18.4 million tons by 2020.
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Coal
Dangjin Thermal Yeongdong Power Thermal Power Oil, 39.5% Yeongheung Donghae Thermal Power Thermal Power Coal, 12.9% Taean Thermal Others, Power 24.4% Steel, 8.8% Boryeong Thermal Power Iron ore, 7.7% Car, 6.6% Seocheon Thermal Power Samcheonpo CAGR:6.6% Thermal Power
Hadong Thermal Power Honam Yeosoo Thermal Power
’000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI) Steel
* Source: WSA(World Steel Association)
Pyeongtaek Dangjin Port Korea has the 5th Pohang largest steel Port production capacity as a major steel producer in the world Okpo Port Gwangyang Port
steel export cargo is predicted by utilizing crude steel production capacity of steel making companies located near ports Steel
CAGR:0.7%
’000 ton
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Steel cargo volume in Korea will be 94.6 million tons by 2020, growing 0.7% on annual average reflecting recent downturn in the steel industry Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Automobiles
Location of PDI businesses Import Regression analysis in surrounding areas
Location of car Regression analysis production (New cars) Port- facilities Export specific in surrounding Log trend analysis forecast areas (Used cars) on Analysis on the ratio of Major ports for Automo Export transshipment export/Import automobile traffic volume in export/Import biles transshipment Import traffic volume volume
Ports for new Coastal Recent statistics car ferries
Others Unit load approach, weighted moving average, (Export/import, log trend, demand transhipment, coastal momentum Automobile Production volume forecast
* Source: IHS Automotive
South Asia South America North America Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea Greater China Europe
(’000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Global automobile production volume forecast (IHS Automotive) and domestic automobile production volume and forecast are used for prediction CAGR:1.4%
’000 ton * Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Automobiles cargo volume in Korea will be 73.4 million tons by 2020, growing 1.4% on annual average Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Oil
LNG production Petroleum facility per port/ Gas Import traffic volume Forecast on oil Refined Petro-chemical Distribution import Pertrol- industry’s per port eum value-added traffic volume Crude per port Refinement capacity per oil/pertrol port/Import traffic volume -eum
Ratio of crude oil import in oil Regression analysis export (oil export traffic volume)
Sophistication ratio of petroleum Distribution per port (Sorted by refinement facilities Production/consumption places)
Forecast on oil export Forecast on oil coastal traffic volume per port traffic volume per port Oil
Import: Item-specific forecast including crude oil, petroleum products, and petroleum gas Korea has the 6th Export: Forecast on all oil related products largest refining Coastal: Forecast on all oil related products capacity as a major petroleum products producer in the world
Oil Apply bottom-up method targeting ports located near oil refining facilities
Incheon Port Petroleum Products Forecast based on added value of petrochemical Daesan industry using naphtha, a major ingredient of Port petroleum products, as a variable Ulsan Port Petroleum Gas Forecast by dividing ports into ones which are located near LNG production facilities and ones Gwangyang which are located near power generation plant. Port CAGR:5.4%
’000 ton
* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
Oil cargo volume in Korea will be 532 million tons by 2020, growing 5.4% on annual average reflecting oil hub, which is underway ’000 teu ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’000 teu (3.8%) (5.9%) (4.9%) (0.07%) (1.8%) (2.3%) (3.4%) (11.0%)
* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
Traffic volume increase rate is different from country to country. and except for China, Container throughput in Indonesia, India and Viet Nam is significantly higher. ’000 ton ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’000 ton (7.1%) (3.4%) (2.1%) (-0.09%) (2.4%) (2.4%) (1.6%) (3.8%) China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
The non-container traffic increase rate was high in the China, India and Viet Nam 12,000 30,000
10,000 25,000
8,000 20,000
6,000 15,000
4,000 10,000
2,000 5,000
0 0 USD ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e USD million million
China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)
We tried to utilize the same method used in Korea, but due to lack of relevant data, GDP and time series methods were used. 14,000 60,000
12,000 50,000
10,000 40,000
8,000 30,000 6,000
20,000 4,000
10,000 2,000
0 0 ’000 teu ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e ’000 teu (2.5%) (2.4%) (2.3%) (1.6%) (2.2%) (1.9%) (2.1%) (3.5%) China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam * SSource:ource: IHSIHS GlobalGlobal Insight(WTS)Insight(WTS) ,Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
The annual growth rate is expected to be 2 to 3% on average. However, it is predicted that Viet nam maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020. 1,000,000 3,000,000
900,000 2,500,000 800,000
700,000 2,000,000 600,000
500,000 1,500,000
400,000 1,000,000 300,000
200,000 500,000 100,000
0 0 ’000 ton ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e ’000 ton (3.0%) (2.4%) (1.7%) (1.7%) (2.3%) (1.8%) (1.8%) (2.2%) China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam * Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) , Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)
The annual growth rate is expected to be 0.2 to 2.4% on average. Some countries such as the Philippines(4.3%) and China maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020. Thank you ! www.facebook.com/KMIPDAC [email protected]