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Finding the Balance

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Finding the Balance 2017 Mid-Year | Retail Research & Forecast Report EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DELAWARE MARKET INDICATORS PA/NJ/DE PA/NJ/DE Finding the Balance Relative to prior period Q4 2016 Q4 2017* VACANCY Regional Retail Market | Overview CONSTRUCTION > The vacancy rate increased from 7.2 to 8.2 percent during the RENTAL RATES first two quarters of 2017 as a wave of store closings hit the region. All center types except for Neighborhood Centers had *Projected Arrows compare current period to the previous period and forecast the next period. vacancy increases. > Most new construction is in mixed-use residential and retail ASKING RENTAL RATES BY CENTER TYPE developments. > Asking rents were stable, but tenant improvement allowances AVERAGE ASKING were increasing. RENTS Asking rents for Community, Neighborhood > Investment sales activity was highlighted by a record-high sale COMMUNITY $14.00-$32.00 and Lifestyle Centers are price for a suburban center. for the typical quoted rent NEIGHBORHOOD $12.00-$30.00 per-square-foot, triple net; The first six months of 2017 reflected the challenges facing retailers and for in-line spaces. For Power Centers, asking and landlords. Multiple bankruptcies, restructurings and streamlining POWER $13.00-$22.00 resulted in over 2.1 million square feet of vacancy, and this was just rents are for anchor or junior anchor positions, from the Macy’s, Sears-Kmart, JC Penney, hhgregg and Sam’s Club $25.00-$45.00 LIFESTYLE 10,000 SF to 40,000 SF. stores. Radio Shack, Payless and Rue21 were a few of the growing number of retailers filing for bankruptcy and closing a combined 35- plus stores in the region. RETAIL VACANCY BY CENTER TYPE Finding the right mix of online versus bricks and mortar locations, and creating an environment and experience that brings shoppers 15%15% into the stores will be an ongoing battle for retailers. 2Q 16 4Q 16 Shopping center owners are also striving to find the ideal mix of food 2Q 17 and entertainment that will bring additional foot traffic to centers 10%10% amidst sagging retail sales. The additional anchor vacancies will also present redevelopment and retrofit challenges, particularly since the Macy’s locations are separately-owned. However, there has been interest in the big box vacancies as other retailers are stepping up to 5%5% backfill prime locations. As more retail chains attempt to stem losses, they are likely to attempt to recast deals and seek rent reductions. Center owners are 0%0% increasing tenant improvement dollars to attract prime tenants. Community Neighborhood Lifestyle Power Community Neighborhood Lifestyle Power Regional Overview (continued) New restaurant concepts, particularly healthy casual chains, are Investment volume was down from 2016’s levels. The newly constructed proliferating. Boutique fitness centers and larger clubs like Lifetime retail portion for the King of Prussia Towne Center was purchased at a Fitness are opening more locations. Entertainment and recreation high-water-mark price for the Philadelphia market. operators are in demand. Medical groups continue to secure retail locations. Discount retailers have remained active. Kimco Realty acquired interests in the Lincoln Square Development in Philadelphia and Macarthur Towne Center in the Lehigh Valley. Recent Transactions in Q1 and Q2 2017 LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION TENANT SIZE SF Capital City Mall Dauphin County Dick's Sporting Goods 101,476 Suburban Square Montgomery County Lifetime Fitness 78,636 Promenade at Granite Run Delaware County Frank Theatres Cinebowl & Grille 68,115 Colonial Commons Dauphin County Hobby Lobby 67,000 Christiana Fashion Center New Castle County Main Event Entertainment Center 51,304 Moorestown Commons Burlington County Virtua Cancer Center 48,000 Red Rose Commons Lancaster County Burlington Stores 43,091 Overlook at King of Prussia Montgomery County Off 5th 40,263 Coventry Mall Chester County Lomax Carpet & Tile Mart 40,000 3950 Black Horse Pike Gloucester County Lidl 34,780 Prices Corner Shopping Center New Castle County Gabe’s 34,000 Shoppes at Renaissance Square Burlington County Virtua Medical Group 32,568 Lincoln Square Philadelphia County Target 36,000 Capital City Mall Dauphin County Dave and Busters 28,000 Colonial Commons Dauphin County Toys R Us 23,500 5600 Carlisle Pike Center Cumberland County Marshalls 21,000 5600 Carlisle Pike Center Cumberland County Home Goods 21,000 South Mall Lehigh Valley Full Circle Training 20,000 Millside Plaza Burlington County Crunch Fitness 20,000 Plaza 352 Mall Shopping Center Delaware County PetSmart 18,000 Paulsboro Plaza Gloucester County Save-A-Lot 17,795 Hope Plaza Philadelphia County Save-A-Lot 17,500 Lincoln Square Philadelphia County PetSmart 16,000 Suburban Square Montgomery County West Elm 10,540 SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION BUYER SIZE SF PRICE / SF TYPE King of Prussia Town Center Montgomery County CBRE Global Investors Ltd 263,423 $695 Community Center Newberry Commons York County Vastgood Properties LLC 241,977 $68 Community Center Bakers Centre Philadelphia County The Blackstone Group LP 240,479 $218 Community Center Town Square Plaza Chester County Bluejay Management 215,610 $133 Power Center MacArthur Towne Center Lehigh County Abrams Realty & Development 151,418 $94 Community Center Lower Makefield Shopping Center Bucks County Inland Institutional Capital, LLC 74,953 $272 Neighborhood Center Knights Road Shopping Center Philadelphia County Sant Properties 74,051 $232 Neighborhood Center Wheatland Shopping Center Lancaster Nico Properties Group 64,735 $70 Neighborhood Center Oregon Market Shopping Center Philadelphia County Hong Fa LLC 45,468 $220 Neighborhood Center 2 Research & Forecast Report | 2017 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International Market Comparison Update RETAIL MARKET SUBMARKET INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT SUBLET VACANT TOTAL VACANT VACANCY RATE Philadelphia County 17,198,678 1,317,421 15,000 1,332,421 7.7% Suburban PA Counties 71,828,844 5,335,192 73,350 5,408,542 7.5% Southern New Jersey 32,148,834 3,955,625 65,981 4,021,606 12.5% Lehigh Valley, PA 15,379,268 872,753 5,960 878,713 5.7% New Castle County, DE 17,714,925 1,237,404 2,293 1,239,697 7.0% Central Pennsylvania 46,708,629 3,532,002 20,304 3,552,306 7.6% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 200,979,178 16,250,397 182,888 16,433,285 8.2% VACANCY COMPARISON BY MAJOR CENTER TYPE SUBMARKET COMMUNITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER POWER CENTER LIFESTYLE CENTER Philadelphia County 8.1% 10.4% 3.8% 0.0% Suburban PA Counties 5.2% 9.3% 5.5% 13.8% Southern New Jersey 14.8% 15.3% 4.8% 7.1% Lehigh Valley, PA 7.7% 9.1% 1.2% 0.0% New Castle County, DE 9.8% 4.4% 6.6% 20.9% Central Pennsylvania 8.0% 11.7% 3.7% 1.4% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 8.4% 10.6% 4.4% 11.5% DEFINITIONS Vacancy Rate: A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation on the space. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Under Construction: Counted when steel is up, not at the commencement of site work. METHODOLOGY: The Colliers International PA, Southern NJ, and DE survey includes strip retail, neighborhood, community, power, lifestyle and malls over 25,000 square feet. The overall vacancy rates include strip retail centers and malls, but these are not broken out in the center vacancy comparisons. Research & Forecast Report | 2017 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International 3 Submarket Reviews 554 offices in Philadelphia County 66 countries The Philadelphia County’s vacancy rate increased from from 7.3 to 7.0 percent, despite the 7.2 to 7.7 percent due to the closing of the JC Penney at closing of two hhgregg stores. The Philadelphia Mills and the hhgregg at Whitman Square. vacant SuperFresh in Claymont is being $2.5B in annual revenue However, demand has been strong, and vacancies from redeveloped into a self storage facility. 2B square feet under management 2015 and 2016 have been steadily backfilled. Over 16,000 professionals Lehigh Valley, PA In addition to the high profile retail redevelopments in The Lehigh Valley vacancy rate ticked up Center City, there are additional new developments slightly from 5.5 to 5.7 percent. With the underway and planned on the bordering neighborhoods, exception of an hhgregg, the Valley has such as the retail component of Lincoln Square and in avoided large store closings to date in 2017. under-served areas of the city like Plaza Allegheny. There was a burst of new restaurant Suburban Pennsylvania openings including national chains and Vacancy spiked from 6.2 to 7.5 percent during the first locally-based establishments opening new half of 2017 as four hhgregg, two JC Penney, and two locations. Macy’s closed. Plans are already in the works to redevelop the Macy’s at Plymouth Meeting Mall. New owners were making upgrades to centers such as Palmer Park Mall, MacArthur FOUNDING GLOBAL PARTNER The former Macy’s at Suburban Square in Ardmore is Town Center, and the Westgate Mall. being redeveloped into a Lifetime Fitness. A Frank’s A new Weis Markets will be built as part of the Theatres CineBowl & Grille is being constructed on the mixed-use Woodmont Valley complex in Lower WORLD GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL formerJC Penney site at the mixed-use Promendade at Macungie. Granite Run redevelopment. Two new Whole Foods (now owned by Amazon) are rising on the site of a former Central Pennsylvania Kmart at Exton Square Mall and at Springhouse Village The overall vacancy rate in the Central PA Center.
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