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2016 Mid-Year | Retail Research & Forecast Report EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DELAWARE MARKET INDICATORS PA/NJ/DE PA/NJ/DE Vacancy = Opportunity Relative to prior period Q4 2015 Q4 2016* VACANCY Regional Overview CONSTRUCTION > The regional vacancy rate decreased to 7.6 percent during the first RENTAL RATES half of 2016. *Projected Arrows compare current period to the previous period and forecast the > Larger-tenant volatility continued, but there has been more next period. momentum to backfill vacancies in the last twelve months. > Asking rents have increased on the upper range of the regional averages, but no movement on the lower end. ASKING RENTAL RATES BY CENTER TYPE > Strong investor demand from regional, national, and international AVERAGE ASKING buyers resulted in over 4.0 million square feet of center sales. RENTS Asking rents for Community, Neighborhood and Lifestyle Centers are Shopping center leasing activity was strong during the first two COMMUNITY $14.00-$31.00 for the typical quoted rent quarters of 2016. Community, Neighborhood, Lifestyle and Power per-square-foot, triple net; Centers all registered decreases in vacancy. Discount home NEIGHBORHOOD $12.00-$30.00 and for in-line spaces. For furnishing and off-price department stores multiplied. There was Power Centers, asking POWER $13.00-$22.00 rents are for anchor or also an influx of fitness and recreation operators. This ranged from junior anchor positions, small boutique fitness locations to larger laser tag and trampoline LIFESTYLE $25.00-$45.00 10,000 SF to 40,000 SF. parks. The bankruptcy of Sports Authority resulted in the closing of eleven regional stores ranging in the 40,000 to 50,000 square foot range. Dick’s Sporting Goods will be acquiring the Sports Authority brand RETAIL VACANCY BY CENTER TYPE and multiple store leases, but none of the locations in this region.15% The former Sports Authority stores will have a short-term impact on 15%15% vacancy but there is likely to be demand from other retailers. 2Q2Q 15 Multiple centers have redevelopments underway or planned, 4Q 15 particularly those under new ownership. Demolition has begun at 4Q 15 10%10% the Granite Run Mall beginning with the teardown of the former10% JC 2Q 16 Penney store. The lower level of the former JC Penney location at 2Q 16 the Exton Square Mall is being renovated to accommodate a new entertainment tenant and the former Kmart store is being demolished 5% and replaced by a Whole Foods. The full gut and transformation of 5% the Fashion Outlets of Philadelphia is underway but the opening has5% been delayed until 2018. Renovations are planned for the Coventry Mall in Pottstown and Palmer Park Mall in Easton. 0%0% CommunityCommunity Neighborhood Neighborhood LifestyleLifestyle PowerPower 0% Community Neighborhood Lifestyle Power PHL_Retail Market Report_2016 Q2.indd 1 7/25/2016 3:18:10 PM Regional Overview (continued) Round 1 Entertainment will be opening its first regional location The variety of center sizes and occupancy rates attracted investors at in Exton. Lego Discovery Center will be opening at Plymouth widely varying sale prices. Hull Property Group, a value-add investor, Meeting Mall. There were multiple laser tag operators scouting new made its first Pennsylvania purchase with the acquisition of the lender- locations and new movie theater concepts will be opening. German held Fairgrounds Mall. Cyprus-based Medipower purchased two centers grocery chain, Lidl, is opening its first locations in the region. Off- in Berks County. RioCan divested its 49-property U.S. porfolio to price department store concepts remained popular. Macy’s opened Blackstone, including eight regional centers. There were multiple entity its own discount center, Macy’s Backstage, within existing stores at level transactions. For instance, Macerich sold a 49% interest in the Montgomery and Harrisburg Malls. Deptford Mall to Heitman. Recent Transactions in Q1 and Q2 2016 SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION BUYER SIZE SF PRICE / SF TYPE Fairgrounds Square Mall Berks County Hull Property Management 746,410 $1.56 Regional Mall Deptford Landing Gloucester County Blackstone 508,857 $162.05 Power Center Palmer Park Mall Northampton County CityView Commercial 457,694 $39.33 Regional Mall Exeter Commons Berks County Blackstone 358,695 $210.90 Power Center York Marketplace York County Blackstone 303,310 n/a Power Center Valley Square Bucks County Poag Shopping Centers/Ares Mgmt. 290,170 $280.87 Lifestyle Center Drexeline Shopping Center Delaware County MCB Real Estate 265,825 $112.86 Community Center The Shoppes at Cross Keys Camden County The Jemstone Group 176,118 $141.95 Lifestyle Center Madeira Plaza Berks County Medipower Overseas Co. of Cyprus 164,977 $97.59 Community Center Bristol Plaza Bucks County AMERCO 145,356 $44.03 Neighborhood Center Columbus Crossing Philadelphia Blackstone 142,166 n/a Power Center (portion) Town Square Plaza Berks County Blackstone 128,000 $162.14 Community Center Blue Mountain Commons Dauphin County Blackstone 115,745 $329.69 Neighborhood Center 140 N. MacDade Boulevard Delaware County Wharton Realty Group 108,587 $158.40 Neighborhood Center North End Shopping Center Montgomery County Medipower Overseas Co. of Cyprus 102,905 $91.35 Neighborhood Center Creekview Shopping Center Bucks County Blackstone 97,622 $219.60 Power Center (portion) LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION TENANT SIZE SF West Manchester Town Center York County At Home 121,524 900 Orthodox Street Philadelphia National Wholesale Liquidators 100,000 Harrisburg East Shopping Center Dauphin County Giant 69,954 Stonehedge Square Shopping Center Cumberland Count Giant 61,657 Grays Ferry Shopping Center Philadelphia County Laserdome 56,648 Exton Square Mall Chester County Rount 1 Entertainment 51,000 Ivyridge Shopping Center Philadelphia County Target 47,228 Christiana Fashion Center New Castle County Marshalls/HomeGoods 45,000 The Shoppes at Wyndam York County Lidl 33,000 Sinking Spring Plaza Berks County Tractor Supply Company 31,000 Christiana Town Center New Castle County Restoration Hardware Outlet 31,000 Metroplex Shopping Center Montgomery County Off 5th 24,680 Williamstown Shopping Center Gloucester County Rockin' Jump 21,006 York Galleria York County H&M 20,031 West Shore Commons Cumberland Count Goodwill 20,000 Whitman Square Philadelphia County Ashley Furniture 20,000 North Gate Shopping Center York County Grocery Outlet Bargain Market 19,000 Capital City Mall Cumberland Count H&M 19,000 Newark Shopping Centers New Castle County Main Street Movies Five 18,000 2 Research & Forecast Report | 2016 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International PHL_Retail Market Report_2016 Q2.indd 2 7/25/2016 3:18:10 PM Market Comparison Update RETAIL MARKET SUBMARKET INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT SUBLET VACANT TOTAL VACANT VACANCY RATE Philadelphia and Suburbs 88,826,180 6,170,144 117,295 6,287,439 7.1% Southern New Jersey 32,193,044 3,348,636 181,013 3,529,649 11.0% Lehigh Valley, PA 14,819,923 874,590 0 874,590 5.9% New Castle County, DE 17,387,589 1,292,525 0 1,292,525 7.4% Central Pennsylvania 46,708,629 3,172,071 21,764 3,193,835 6.8% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 199,935,365 14,857,966 320,072 15,178,038 7.6% VACANCY COMPARISON BY MAJOR CENTER TYPE SUBMARKET COMMUNITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER POWER CENTER LIFESTYLE CENTER Philadelphia and Suburbs 5.8% 11.8% 3.2% 12.9% Southern New Jersey 12.0% 15.3% 5.6% 14.4% Lehigh Valley, PA 7.6% 11.4% 5.6% 0.0% New Castle County, DE 9.6% 5.9% 10.8% 0.0% Central Pennsylvania 6.1% 11.3% 3.4% 3.0% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 7.4% 11.8% 3.9% 8.8% DEFINITIONS Absorption (Net): The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation on the space. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Under Construction: Counted when steel is up, not at the commencement of site work. Build-to-Suit: A term describing property that was developed specifically for a certain tenant to occupy. Can be either leased or owned by the tenant. METHODOLOGY: The Colliers International PA, Southern NJ, and DE survey includes strip retail, neighborhood, community, power, lifestyle and malls over 25,000 square feet. The overall vacancy rates include strip retail centers and malls, but these are not broken out in the center vacancy comparisons. Research & Forecast Report | 2016 Mid-Year | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International 3 PHL_Retail Market Report_2016 Q2.indd 3 7/25/2016 3:18:11 PM Submarket Reviews 554 offices in Philadelphia County New Castle County, DE 66 countries The vacancy rate in Philadelphia County decreased New Castle County’s vacancy from an adjusted 9.1 percent to 8.8 percent. Target increased from 7.2 to 7.4 percent. announced plans for a fourth flexible-format store in Although new retailers have opened in $2.5B in annual revenue Philadelphia. the Christiana area, there have been 2B square feet under management Multiple mixed-use developments in Center City new announced store closings. In Over 16,000 professionals Philadelphia will be expanding the retail footprint and addition to the Sports Authority at providing new opportunities. Wawa and other c-stores Brandywine Commons II, Best Buy continue to expand with storefront and freestanding announced it would be closing two infill locations.
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