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Colliers International Retail 2015 Year End | Retail Research & Forecast Report EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DELAWARE MARKET INDICATORS PA/NJ/DE PA/NJ/DE Supply Reboot Relative to prior period Q2 2015 Q2 2016* VACANCY Regional Overview CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATES > The regional vacancy rate remained at 7.9 percent during the last *Projected Arrows compare current period to the previous period and half of 2015. forecast the next period. > Continued grocery chain volatility impacted neighborhood and community centers throughout the region ASKING RENTAL RATES BY CENTER TYPE > Asking rents for top-tier centers increased, but overall rents were flat. Average Asking Rents Asking rents for > The inflow of new landlords has resulted in increased capital Community, Neighborhood investment toward upgrading existing centers to meet evolving COMMUNITY $14.00-$29.00 and Lifestyle Centers are retailer and consumer trends. for the typical quoted rent per-square-foot, triple net, The last two quarters of 2015 were marked by an active take and $12.00-$28.00 NEIGHBORHOOD and for in-line spaces. For give supply climate. The bankruptcy of the Great Atlantic and Pacific Power Centers, asking $13.00-$22.00 supermarket chain added to the surplus of vacant grocery anchors. POWER rents are for anchor or Twenty-three Pathmark and Super Fresh stores in Pennsylvania junior anchor positions, LIFESTYLE $25.00-$45.00 were closed. However, Acme Markets is in the process of taking 10,000 SF to 40,000 SF. over fourteen of these locations. Multiple large scale redevelopments were moving forward. The eastern portion of the Gallery reboot in Philadelphia was underway. RETAIL VACANCY BY CENTER TYPE January 2016 demolition is scheduled for the Granite Run Mall. 15% Boscov’s and Sears will remain open as the center is redeveloped 4Q 14 into The Promenade at Granite Run. Demolition and redevelopment at Chesterbrook Village has started. PREIT will be demolishing the 2Q 15 Kmart at Exton Square Mall and leasing 55,000 square feet to Whole 10% 4Q 15 Foods. Asking rents for new centers topped $45.00 per square foot. However, rent growth overall was dragged down by the persistent 5% anchor vacancies. 0% Community Neighborhood Lifestyle Power Regional Overview (continued) Acme significantly expanded its footprint in the region, filling Private investors, particularly equity funds chasing yields, were the most multiple former A&P locations. Regionally-based discount retailers, active buyers in the region. PREIT continued to spinoff non-core centers supermarkets and organic-oriented stores filled vacant grocery including the Voorhees Town Center and the Palmer Park Mall, which anchor spots. Wegmans continues to expand regionally. was under agreement. Pettinaro Management acquired a portfolio of retail and office properties in northern Delaware from Stoltz Real Estate Landlords are more actively changing the tenant mix to provide more Partners, including Power Mill Square. There were additional major foot traffic by courting entertainment options like “dinner and a movie” shopping centers in the Lehigh Valley under contract. concepts, fitness/recreation operators, as well as community service providers such as medical centers. Sale prices for well-leased centers were solidly over $250 per square foot while value-add properties traded for under $100 per square foot. Recent Transactions in Q3 and Q4 2015 SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION BUYER SIZE SF PRICE / SF TYPE East Gate Square Burlington County M&J Wilkow 746,535 $252 Community Center Voorhees Town Center Camden County Mason Asset Management 307,000 $44 Regional Mall Penrose Plaza Shopping Center Philadelphia County Onyx Properties, etal 263,000 $95 Community Center Southmont Plaza Lehigh Valley DDR-Blackstone 253,943 $211 Power Center Kenhorst Plaza Berks County Paum Sales Corp. 161,449 $152 Community Center Springfield Park Delaware County National Realty Corporation 141,141 $286 Community Center Shops at Cedar Point Lehigh Valley DDR-Blackstone 132,395 n/a Neighborhood Center Paulsboro Plaza Gloucester County AVPM 95,180 $13 Community Center Mullica Hill Plaza Gloucester County Carlyle Funding 86842 $292 Neighborhood Center Anville East Center Lebanon County PinnacleHealth 80,000 $55 Neighborhood Center Stonybrook Shopping Center York County SJC Property Management 63,955 $57 Neighborhood Center Powder Mill Square New Castle County Pettinaro Management 63,777 $368 Community Center 520 S. 29th Street Dauphin Cuonty AMERCO Real Estate Company 63,000 $29 Neighborhood Center LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LOCATION TENANT SIZE SF Fairgrounds Square Mall Berks County Limerick Furniture 151,630 Coventry Mall Chester County Limerick Furniture 121,455 The Crossings at Conestoga Creek Lancaster County Wegmans 120,000 Lawrence Park Shopping Center Delaware County Main Line Health Center 71,932 Airport Shopping Center New Castle County Acme Markets 68,152 Cottman & Bustleton Center Philadelphia County Acme Markets 66,703 Crossroads Plaza Bucks County Acme Markets 55,537 Exton Square Mall Chester County Whole Foods 55,000 College Square New Castle County Acme Markets 55,000 Eden Square Shopping Center New Castle County Gabe's 55,000 Larkins Corner Delaware County Acme Markets 54,257 Kirkwood Plaza New Castle County Acme Markets 52,936 Warrington Crossing Bucks County Gander Mountain 52,700 Shops At Schmidts Philadelphia County Acme Markets 50,049 3901 Lancaster Pike New Castle County 7Day Farmers Market 48,662 Market Square At Chestnut Hill Philadelphia County Acme Markets 48,210 Audubon Village Shopping Center Montgomery County Keller’s Market 45,963 Colonial Commons Dauphin County HomeGoods 31,436 Carlisle Commons Carlisle Tractor Supply 30,173 Branmar Plaza New Castle County Acme Markets 30,780 Rodin Square Philadelphia County Target 55,000 2 Research & Forecast Report | 2015 Year End | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International Market Comparison Update RETAIL MARKET SUBMARKET INVENTORY DIRECT VACANT SUBLET VACANT TOTAL VACANT VACANCY RATE Philadelphia and Suburbs 88,577,883 6,537,383 206,896 6,744,279 7.6% Southern New Jersey 32,380,603 3,534,901 116,488 3,651,389 11.3% Lehigh Valley, PA 14,764,768 809,475 0 809,475 5.5% New Castle County, DE 17,312,589 1,250,055 0 1,250,055 7.2% Central Pennsylvania 48,748,144 3,474,620 21,775 3,496,395 7.2% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 201,783,987 15,630,434 345,159 15,975,593 7.9% VACANCY COMPARISON BY MAJOR CENTER TYPE SUBMARKET COMMUNITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER POWER CENTER LIFESTYLE CENTER Philadelphia and Suburbs 7.0% 12.3% 3.4% 6.9% Southern New Jersey 12.1% 16.0% 6.0% 5.9% Lehigh Valley, PA 6.5% 10.7% 1.6% 1.0% New Castle County, DE 8.5% 5.8% 12.9% 0.0% Central Pennsylvania 6.3% 11.0% 4.1% 2.4% TOTAL PA-NJ-DE 7.8% 12.0% 4.4% 4.7% DEFINITIONS Absorption (Net): The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation on the space. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Under Construction: Counted when steel is up, not at the commencement of site work. Build-to-Suit: A term describing property that was developed specifically for a certain tenant to occupy. Can be either leased or owned by the tenant. METHODOLOGY: The Colliers International PA, Southern NJ, and DE survey includes strip retail, neighborhood, community, power, lifestyle and malls over 25,000 square feet. The overall vacancy rates include strip retail centers and malls, but these are not broken out in the center vacancy comparisons. 3 Research & Forecast Report | 2015 Year End | Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware | Colliers International Submarket Reviews Philadelphia County The next 105,000-square-foot phase 502 offices in The vacancy in Philadelphia County increased from 7.3 is under construction. percent to 8.5 percent during the last two quarters of The new owners of the Newark 67 countries on 2015. SuperFresh and Pathmark store closings were Shopping Center recently completed a added to Bottom Dollar vacancies from earlier in 2015. $10.0 million renovation to the center. 6 continents The Gallery is currently out of the active inventory as Additional retail space is planned in $2.3B in annual revenue PREIT and Macerich have commenced on the two year Newark at the former Avon site. redevelopment project into the Fashion Outlets of 1.7B square feet under management Philadelphia. Lehigh Valley, PA Over 16,300 professionals The expansion of the retail footprint and strong retailer The Lehigh Valley vacancy rate trended demand in Center City shows no signs of slowing. upward over the last four quarters, mainly due to supermarket closings. Most Suburban Pennsylvania recently, Redner’s Warehouse Markets The overall vacancy rate for the four suburban counties shut the 47,900-square-foot store in increased from 7.3 to 7.6 percent. Delaware and Trexlertown. Montgomery counties had a vacancy decrease, but Bucks and Chester had increased vacancy. However, demand has been strong at the FOUNDING GLOBAL PARTNER Valley’s new shopping centers. The In addition to the major redevelopments, ground-up 570,000-square-foot Hamilton Crossings is centers are under construction in Brookhaven, close to being fully leased well in advance of Newtown Square, Warrington and Doylestown. The next the center’s 2Q 2016 opening. Leasing has WORLD GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL phase of King of Prussia Town Center is underway and been strong at the Madison Farms additional stores at Brandywine Mills will join the newly development, where ShopRite opened in the opened Wegman’s.
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