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January 2020 NOA 2019/20 NOA 02 2019/20 Foreword

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January 2020 NOA 2019/20 NOA 02 2019/20 Foreword Network Options Assessment January 2020 NOA 2019/20 NOA 02 2019/20 Foreword Last year saw a major milestone in the We are pleased to present the 5th NOA report, In producing this year’s NOA we have listened UK’s energy revolution as the Government with the aim of generating consumer value by to and acted on your feedback. We are making passed laws to end its contribution to avoiding over or under investment in the more changes and enhancements to the global warming by 2050. As the Electricity transmission network. process. I would welcome your thoughts as to System Operator (ESO), we also set how we can push the NOA even further to drive To make sure our processes are transparent, we value for consumers whilst continuing to operate a target, of having the capability to follow the NOA methodology, in full consultation a safe and secure GB transmission system. operate a zero carbon network by 2025. with our stakeholders and which is approved by Our Network Options Assessment (NOA) Ofgem on an annual basis. This methodology publication, along with our other ESO sets out how we base our recommendations publications, continues to embrace these on the data and analysis of the 2019 FES and ambitions and lead our industry towards ETYS. Our latest methodology was approved a secure, sustainable and affordable by Ofgem in October 2019. energy future. The NOA represents a balance between asset The NOA is a key part of the ESO role. investment and network management to It describes the major projects we are achieve the best use of consumers’ money. considering to meet the future needs of GB’s The future energy landscape is uncertain, and electricity transmission system as outlined the ESO’s recommendations make sure the in the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS) GB transmission network is fit for the future. 2019, and recommends which investments These recommendations are imperative for in the year ahead would best futureproof the us all to address the ‘energy trilemma’ of Julian Leslie GB transmission network for their role at secure, sustainable and affordable energy. Head of Networks, the heart of our energy system. They are the key stepping stones for us to Electricity System Operator meet our 2025 target to operate a carbon-free network and accomplish the wider 2050 ambition of a net zero carbon emission society. NOA 03 2019/20 Executive summary The NOA is our recommendation for which reinforcement projects should receive investment during the coming year. We reach our conclusions using the FES 2019, ETYS 2019, and following the latest NOA report methodology approved by Ofgem. Below, we present a summary of the key points of the NOA 2019/20. Proceed 42 Delay 2 £11.1bn* 3 * this includes the costs 147 Total Cost Number of ESO-led only for E2DC and not assessed commercial solutions Hold E2D2. These projects options 47 Saving consumers up are mutually exclusive £203m to £950m and therefore only one Do not start or Stop 56 Investing in 2020/21 will be delivered in full. NOA I/C 18.1 to 23.1 GW NOA 04 2019/20 Executive summary We identified a need for four Anglo-Scottish This year’s interconnector analysis suggests You can find an overview of our investment reinforcements to accommodate the increasing a total interconnection capacity range recommendations with their optimal delivery north-to-south power flows. The final of between 18.1 to 23.1 GW between GB and year, including all the options where a decision recommendation for which, if any, of these European markets would provide optimal must be made this year and some key changes reinforcements should progress to construction consumer benefit. to last year’s recommendations, in table 0.1. is subject to the Strategic Wider Works (SWW) assessment, which investigates wider ranges These recommendations represent the Many other factors outside the scope of of sensitivities. best view at a snapshot in time. Investment this analysis will influence the outcome for decisions taken by any business should always GB interconnection over the next decade We anticipate the south coast will have consider these recommendations in the light and beyond. a growing volume of interconnection capacity of subsequent events and developments over the next decade. In NOA 2018/19 the in the energy sector. We are waiting on the final outcome of the increasing flows between GB and other EU-Exit negotiations and what this will mean for countries triggered the need for a new This NOA also identifies which options we interconnector trading arrangements. We expect transmission line between south London recommend to proceed are likely to meet interconnectors to continue playing a long-term and the south east coast. This year, analysis Ofgem’s criteria for onshore competition. role in the UK’s diverse energy mix. While some showed that a new transmission route to be We also expand this assessment to any of the trading arrangements may need to delivered in 2028 between Suffolk and Kent new or modified contracted connection change in both a deal or no-deal scenario, would benefit a wider range of boundaries, projects for generator and demand systems and processes can be amended to resulting in a higher economic benefit. connections. The competition assessment make sure power can still flow between the As a result, we recommend this option is in accordance with the Ofgem agreed UK and Europe. to be investigated as an SWW with other methodology and the outcomes are available options. described in Chapter 4 – ‘Investment recommendations’. In addition to the asset-based reinforcements proposed by the TOs, we included four ESO-led commercial solutions. We believe there is a significant benefit in pursuing three of these and will refine them via market testing this year. NOA 05 2019/20 Executive summary Table 0.1 Key: Summary of investment recommendations Two Degrees Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason code recommendation recommendation code recommendation recommendation BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Proceed Proceed No change DWNO Denny to Wishaw 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 Proceed Proceed No change Burwell Main 400 kV reinforcement E2D2 Eastern Scotland to 2028 2028 2028 N/A N/A Do not start Proceed This reinforcement BNRC Bolney and Ninfield 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change England link: Torness to becomes critical under additional reactive Cottam offshore HVDC two scenarios series compensation E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC 2027 N/A N/A 2027 2027 Proceed Proceed No change BPRE Reconductor the 2029 2029 2029 2039 2029 Hold Proceed This reinforcement link from Torness to newly formed second becomes critical Hawthorn Pit Bramford to Braintree to under three scenarios Rayleigh Main circuit E4D3 Eastern Scotland to 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 Proceed Proceed No change England link: Peterhead BRRE Reconductor remainder 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Hold Proceed This reinforcement to Drax offshore HVDC of Bramford to Braintree becomes critical under to Rayleigh route all scenarios E4L5 Eastern Scotland 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement to England 3rd link: BTNO A new 400 kV double 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 Proceed Proceed No change Peterhead to South circuit between Humber offshore HVDC Bramford and Twinstead ECU2 East coast onshore 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change CDP1 Power control device 2023 2023 2028 2027 2027 Not featured Delay New reinforcement 275 kV upgrade along Cellarhead to Drakelow ECUP East coast onshore 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 Proceed Proceed No change 400 kV incremental CDRE Cellarhead to Drakelow 2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A Proceed Stop This reinforcement reinforcement reconductoring has been superceded by new alternatives ECVC Eccles synchronous 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 Hold Proceed This reinforcement CDP1, CDP2 and series compensation becomes critical under CDP4 and real-time rating all scenarios system CGNC A new 400 kV double 2031 2031 2031 2031 N/A Not featured Proceed New reinforcement circuit between Creyke FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement Beck and the South Lovedean circuit Humber GRRA Grain running 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Hold Proceed This reinforcement CS35 Commercial solution for 2023 2023 2023 2024 2023 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement arrangement change becomes critical under Scotland and the north all scenarios of England GWNC A new 400 kV double 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement CS51 Commercial solution for 2024 2024 2027 N/A 2033 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement circuit between East Anglia South Humber and South Lincolnshire CS53 Commercial solution for 2023 2023 2024 2023 2023 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement the south coast HAE2 Harker supergrid 2023 2023 2023 2028 2024 Proceed Proceed No change transformer 5 CTP2 Alternative power 2024 2024 2029 2029 2027 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement replacement control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton NOA 06 2019/20 Executive summary Table 0.1 (continued) Key: Summary of investment recommendations Two Degrees Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason code recommendation recommendation code recommendation recommendation HAEU Harker supergrid 2022 2022
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