January 2020 NOA 2019/20 NOA 02 2019/20 Foreword

Network Options Assessment

Last year saw a major milestone in the We are pleased to present the 5th NOA report, In producing this year’s NOA we have listened UK’s energy revolution as the Government with the aim of generating consumer value by to and acted on your feedback. We are making passed laws to end its contribution to avoiding over or under investment in the more changes and enhancements to the global warming by 2050. As the Electricity transmission network. process. I would welcome your thoughts as to System Operator (ESO), we also set how we can push the NOA even further to drive To make sure our processes are transparent, we value for consumers whilst continuing to operate a target, of having the capability to follow the NOA methodology, in full consultation a safe and secure GB transmission system. operate a zero carbon network by 2025. with our stakeholders and which is approved by Our Network Options Assessment (NOA) Ofgem on an annual basis. This methodology publication, along with our other ESO sets out how we base our recommendations publications, continues to embrace these on the data and analysis of the 2019 FES and ambitions and lead our industry towards ETYS. Our latest methodology was approved a secure, sustainable and affordable by Ofgem in October 2019. energy future. The NOA represents a balance between asset The NOA is a key part of the ESO role. investment and network management to It describes the major projects we are achieve the best use of consumers’ money. considering to meet the future needs of GB’s The future energy landscape is uncertain, and electricity transmission system as outlined the ESO’s recommendations make sure the in the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS) GB transmission network is fit for the future. 2019, and recommends which investments These recommendations are imperative for in the year ahead would best futureproof the us all to address the ‘energy trilemma’ of Julian Leslie GB transmission network for their role at secure, sustainable and affordable energy. Head of Networks, the heart of our energy system. They are the key stepping stones for us to Electricity System Operator meet our 2025 target to operate a carbon-free network and accomplish the wider 2050 ambition of a net zero carbon emission society. NOA 03 2019/20 Executive summary

The NOA is our recommendation for which reinforcement projects should receive investment during the coming year. We reach our conclusions using the FES 2019, ETYS 2019, and following the latest NOA report methodology approved by Ofgem. Below, we present a summary of the key points of the NOA 2019/20.

Proceed 42 Delay 2 £11.1bn* 3 *this includes the costs 147 Total Cost Number of ESO-led only for E2DC and not assessed commercial solutions Hold E2D2. These projects options 47 Saving consumers up are mutually exclusive £203m to £950m and therefore only one Do not start or Stop 56 Investing in 2020/21 will be delivered in full. NOA I/C 18.1 to 23.1 GW NOA 04 2019/20 Executive summary

We identified a need for four Anglo-Scottish This year’s interconnector analysis suggests You can find an overview of our investment reinforcements to accommodate the increasing a total interconnection capacity range recommendations with their optimal delivery north-to-south power flows. The final of between 18.1 to 23.1 GW between GB and year, including all the options where a decision recommendation for which, if any, of these European markets would provide optimal must be made this year and some key changes reinforcements should progress to construction consumer benefit. to last year’s recommendations, in table 0.1. is subject to the Strategic Wider Works (SWW) assessment, which investigates wider ranges These recommendations represent the Many other factors outside the scope of of sensitivities. best view at a snapshot in time. Investment this analysis will influence the outcome for decisions taken by any business should always GB interconnection over the next decade We anticipate the south coast will have consider these recommendations in the light and beyond. a growing volume of interconnection capacity of subsequent events and developments over the next decade. In NOA 2018/19 the in the energy sector. We are waiting on the final outcome of the increasing flows between GB and other EU-Exit negotiations and what this will mean for countries triggered the need for a new This NOA also identifies which options we interconnector trading arrangements. We expect transmission line between south London recommend to proceed are likely to meet interconnectors to continue playing a long-term and the south east coast. This year, analysis Ofgem’s criteria for onshore competition. role in the UK’s diverse energy mix. While some showed that a new transmission route to be We also expand this assessment to any of the trading arrangements may need to delivered in 2028 between Suffolk and Kent new or modified contracted connection change in both a deal or no-deal scenario, would benefit a wider range of boundaries, projects for generator and demand systems and processes can be amended to resulting in a higher economic benefit. connections. The competition assessment make sure power can still flow between the As a result, we recommend this option is in accordance with the Ofgem agreed UK and Europe. to be investigated as an SWW with other methodology and the outcomes are available options. described in Chapter 4 – ‘Investment recommendations’. In addition to the asset-based reinforcements proposed by the TOs, we included four ESO-led commercial solutions. We believe there is a significant benefit in pursuing three of these and will refine them via market testing this year. NOA 05 2019/20 Executive summary

Table 0.1 Key: Summary of investment recommendations Two Degrees Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression

Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason Option Option description EISD TD CR CE SP NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 Reason code recommendation recommendation code recommendation recommendation

BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Proceed Proceed No change DWNO Denny to Wishaw 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 Proceed Proceed No change Burwell Main 400 kV reinforcement E2D2 Eastern Scotland to 2028 2028 2028 N/A N/A Do not start Proceed This reinforcement BNRC Bolney and Ninfield 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change England link: Torness to becomes critical under additional reactive Cottam offshore HVDC two scenarios series compensation E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC 2027 N/A N/A 2027 2027 Proceed Proceed No change BPRE Reconductor the 2029 2029 2029 2039 2029 Hold Proceed This reinforcement link from Torness to newly formed second becomes critical Hawthorn Pit Bramford to Braintree to under three scenarios Rayleigh Main circuit E4D3 Eastern Scotland to 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 Proceed Proceed No change England link: Peterhead BRRE Reconductor remainder 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Hold Proceed This reinforcement to Drax offshore HVDC of Bramford to Braintree becomes critical under to Rayleigh route all scenarios E4L5 Eastern Scotland 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement to England 3rd link: BTNO A new 400 kV double 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 Proceed Proceed No change Peterhead to South circuit between Humber offshore HVDC Bramford and Twinstead ECU2 East coast onshore 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change CDP1 Power control device 2023 2023 2028 2027 2027 Not featured Delay New reinforcement 275 kV upgrade along Cellarhead to Drakelow ECUP East coast onshore 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 Proceed Proceed No change 400 kV incremental CDRE Cellarhead to Drakelow 2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A Proceed Stop This reinforcement reinforcement reconductoring has been superceded by new alternatives ECVC Eccles synchronous 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 Hold Proceed This reinforcement CDP1, CDP2 and series compensation becomes critical under CDP4 and real-time rating all scenarios system CGNC A new 400 kV double 2031 2031 2031 2031 N/A Not featured Proceed New reinforcement circuit between Creyke FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement Beck and the South Lovedean circuit Humber GRRA Grain running 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Hold Proceed This reinforcement CS35 Commercial solution for 2023 2023 2023 2024 2023 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement arrangement change becomes critical under Scotland and the north all scenarios of England GWNC A new 400 kV double 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement CS51 Commercial solution for 2024 2024 2027 N/A 2033 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement circuit between East Anglia South Humber and South Lincolnshire CS53 Commercial solution for 2023 2023 2024 2023 2023 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement the south coast HAE2 Harker supergrid 2023 2023 2023 2028 2024 Proceed Proceed No change transformer 5 CTP2 Alternative power 2024 2024 2029 2029 2027 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement replacement control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton NOA 06 2019/20 Executive summary

Table 0.1 (continued) Key: Summary of investment recommendations Two Degrees Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression

HAEU Harker supergrid 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Proceed Proceed No change OPN2 A new 400 kV double 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement transformer 6 circuit between replacement Osbaldwick and HNNO Hunterston East 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change Poppleton and relevant to Neilston 400 kV 275 kV upgrades reinforcement RTRE Reconductor remainder 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Proceed Proceed No change HSP1 Power control device 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement of Rayleigh to Tilbury along Fourstones to circuit Harker to Stella West SCD1 New offshore HVDC link 2028 2028 2028 2029 2034 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement KLRE Kemsley to Littlebrook 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Proceed Proceed No change between Suffolk and circuits uprating Kent Option 1 LNPC Power control device 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement SCN1 New 400 kV 2029 N/A N/A N/A N/A Proceed Stop This reinforcement along Lackenby to transmission route has been superceded Norton between south London by new reinforcement and the south coast SCD1 LNRE Reconductor Lackenby 2023 2028 2028 2029 2028 Proceed Hold This reinforcement is to Norton single 400 kV no longer critical under SEEU Reactive series 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Proceed Proceed No change circuit any scenario compensation protective switching MBHW Bramley to Melksham 2023 2025 2023 2026 2026 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement scheme circuits thermal uprating SER1 Elstree to Sundon 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Delay Proceed This reinforcement MRPC Power control device 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement reconductoring becomes critical under along Penwortham to all scenarios Kirkby SHNS Upgrade substation in 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement NEMS 225 MVAr MSCs within 2022 2028 2028 2029 2028 Proceed Hold Generation mix the South Humber area the north east region changes THS1 Install series reactors at 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Proceed Proceed No change NEP1 Power control 2024 2024 N/A 2024 2024 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement Thornton device along Blyth to Tynemouth to Blyth to TKRE Tilbury to Grain and 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 Stop Proceed This reinforcement South Shields Tilbury to Kingsnorth becomes critical under upgrade all scenarios NOR2 Reconductor 13.75 km 2022 2022 2022 2023 2022 Hold Proceed This reinforcement of Norton to Osbaldwick becomes critical under TLNO Torness to north east 2036 2036 2036 2036 N/A Do not start Proceed This reinforcement number 1 400 kV circuit three scenarios England AC onshore becomes critical under reinforcement three scenarios NTP1 Power control device 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 Not featured Proceed New reinforcement along North Tilbury WHTI Turn-in of West Boldon 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Proceed Proceed No change to Hartlepool circuit at OENO Central Yorkshire 2028 N/A N/A N/A N/A Proceed Stop This reinforcement Hawthorn Pit reinforcement has been superceded by new reinforcement WLTI Windyhill to Lambhill 2021 2023 2021 2023 2022 Hold Delay This reinforcement is OPN2 to Longannet 275 kV only critical under one circuit turn-in to Denny scenario North 275 kV substation NOA 07 2019/20 Executive summary Have your say

Your views are important in helping The starting point for our flagship publications us continue to develop and improve is the Future Energy Scenarios (FES). This is the NOA. Chapter 6 – ‘Stakeholder published every year and involves input from engagement’ describes how you can stakeholders from across the energy industry. contact us. These scenarios create a range of credible futures which allow us to provide credible Future energy publications supply and demand projections out to 2050. National Grid ESO has an important role in They inform the energy industry about network leading the energy debate across our industry analysis and planned investment to benefit and working with you to make sure that together our customers. we secure our shared energy future. As the Electricity System Operator (ESO), we are We set out our long-term view of the electricity perfectly placed as an enabler, informer and transmission capability in our Future Energy facilitator. The ESO publications we produce Scenarios (FES), Electricity Ten Year Statement every year are intended to be a catalyst for (ETYS), and Network Options Assessment (NOA) debate, decision-making and, ultimately, change. publications. Your input can help shape these publications and inform the energy debate. Have your say NOA 08 2019/20 1 Introduction > 1.1 Introduction > 1.2 Navigating the document > 1.3 How the NOA fits in with the FES and the ETYS > 1.4 What the NOA can and cannot do > 1.5 What’s new? NOA 09 2019/20 1.1 Introduction About this document

This chapter introduces the Network These projects include both major NETS Chapter 2 includes the NOA report Options Assessment (NOA) and reinforcements and future generator and methodology which details how the NOA demand connections to the transmission process works. We started the NOA report summarises the new features in 1 the report. system . This report is underpinned by the methodology in early 2019, working with the data in our future energy scenarios (FES), onshore TOs and Ofgem. We consulted The NOA 2019/20 is the fifth to be published. which means that the NOA and the ETYS on the initial draft of the NOA 2019/20 As ever, we welcome your feedback which we have a consistent starting point and give a full methodology in May 2019. will use to develop future editions. picture for assessing the potential development of the electricity transmission network. After further discussions and refinement, The NOA helps us develop an efficient, the methodology was submitted to Ofgem in coordinated and economic electricity Chapter 5 includes our interconnection analysis. July 2019 and then published on our website. transmission system consistent with the This informs the industry of the potential benefits It was approved by Ofgem in October 2019. National Electricity Transmission System of future interconnection, with the goal of (NETS) Security and Quality of Supply encouraging the development of efficient levels We’ve provided more context and explanation Standard (SQSS). We use it to identify and of interconnection capacity between GB and of the results, and highlighted how they differ recommend major NETS reinforcement projects other markets. from other analysis, such as the Ten-Year for Great Britain’s Transmission Owners (TOs) Network Development Plan (TYNDP). to meet the future network requirements, as This year’s NOA Interconnector analysis These improvements have been driven defined in the Electricity Ten Year Statement includes additional improvements to the by stakeholder feedback and approved (ETYS). It also identifies which projects meet methodology. We’ve revised the interconnector by Ofgem. the criteria proposed by the industry regulator, baseline level methodology to provide a fairer Ofgem, for onshore competition. representation of the starting point for interconnection capacity. Interconnectors 1 Ofgem closed its statutory consultation on changes to Standard have the potential to reduce carbon emissions, Licence Condition C27 of electricity transmission in January 2020. The changes proposed new requirements for the ESO to assess reduce renewable energy curtailment and projects recommended for further development in the NOA and improve system operability or lower the costs projects for future generator and demand connections, for their of providing system security. eligibility for competition. NOA 10 2019/20 1.2 Navigating the document

We’ve structured the NOA document in a logical way to help you understand how we’ve reached our recommendations and conclusions.

Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 ‘Methodology’ ‘Proposed options’ ‘Investment recommendations’ describes the NOA process and the economic describes the reinforcement options that presents our investment recommendations theory behind it. This is a good overview if you can increase the NETS’ capability. This is for 2019/20. It also summarises the eligibility are unfamiliar with the NOA, or if you would a good description of the types of options assessment for competition in onshore like to understand more about how we carry being proposed by the TOs. electricity transmission. out the economic analysis of options. Chapter 5 Chapter 6 ‘Interconnector analysis’ ‘Stakeholder engagement’ presents our interconnection analysis discusses how you can give us results. We describe the optimum levels of your feedback to improve the NOA interconnection between GB and European in future publications. markets and explain the economic theory behind the benefit of interconnectors to the consumer. This year, we also examine the impact of interconnectors on operational costs. NOA 11 2019/20 1.3 How the NOA fits in with the FES and the ETYS

The ESO produces a suite of publications on Some alternative options we’ve evaluated are the future of energy for Great Britain, which reduced-build or operational options as inform the whole energy debate by addressing explained in Chapter 3 – ‘Proposed options’. specific issues. The FES, ETYS and NOA The NOA emphasises the need to reinforce the provide an evolving and consistent voice in network, and we are keen to embrace innovative the development of GB’s electricity network. ways to do so.

We use the FES to assess network requirements Figure 1.1 for power transfers across the GB NETS. The NOA and ESO documents TO responds with options for reinforcing the Future Energy Operability network and the requirements are published in Scenarios (FES) Strategy Report July Regular the ETYS. The NOA is based on our economic A range of plausible How the changing analysis of these options. Further explanation and credible pathways energy landscape will of this process can be found in Chapter 2. for the future of energy impact the operability from today out to 2050. of the electricity system. We summarise our economic analysis of reinforcement options by region. Based on the economic analysis, we give our recommended option or options for each of the regions. For some, we’ve included a summary of the Electricity Ten Network Options Year Statement Assessment Strategic Wider Works (SWW) analysis. November January The future transmission The recommended It is important to note that while we recommend requirements on the options to meet electricity system. reinforcement options to meet system needs, the TOs or other requirements on the relevant parties will ultimately decide on what, electricity system. where and when to invest. NOA 12 2019/20 1.4 What the NOA can and cannot do

• indicate whether the TOs should begin • comment on the details of any specific option, The NOA can… developing the Needs Case for potential such as how it could be planned or delivered. • recommend the most economic SWW options The TOs or other relevant parties decide how reinforcements, whether build or alternative • indicate to Ofgem and other relevant they implement their options options, for investment over the coming years, stakeholders which reinforcement options • evaluate the specific designs of any option, to meet bulk power transfer requirements as and works for future generator and such as the choice of equipment, route or outlined by the ETYS demand connection projects are eligible environmental impacts. These types of • recommend when investments should be for onshore competition. decisions can only be made by the TOs or made under the different scenarios set out other relevant parties when the options are in the FES to deliver an efficient, coordinated at a more advanced stage and economic future transmission system The NOA cannot… • assess network asset replacement projects • recommend whether the TOs should start, • provide recommendations for customer which don’t increase network capability or continue, delay, hold or stop reinforcement connection. The NOA only recommends individual customer connections projects to make sure they are completed the most economic reinforcement to resolve • list all the options that the TOs develop. Some at a time that will deliver the most benefit wider network issues. are discarded early. The TOs develop options to consumers • insist that reinforcement options are pursued. and consult with stakeholders on variations • indicate the optimum level of interconnections We can only recommend options based on our • forecast or recommend future to other European electricity grids – as well analysis. The TOs or other relevant parties are interconnection levels. It indicates as any necessary reinforcements ultimately responsible for what, where and the optimum level of interconnection. when they invest NOA 13 2019/20 1.5 What’s new?

In the NOA 2017/18, we strengthened the boundary transfer requirements which lead fairer representation of the starting point for the NOA process by introducing a NOA to the submission of options. interconnection capacity. We’ve also refocused Committee to scrutinise our investment • Changes to the NOA economic analysis the analysis on the main iterative process, recommendations. This was supported modelling – The NOA 2018/19 recommended identifying the optimal level of interconnection by using implied probabilities to help our investment in two ESO-led commercial capacity between GB and other markets. solutions. We are refining our requirements We’ve removed the system operability decision-making for options driven by a analysis, which will now be included in our single factor or considered sensitive. and assumptions for those solutions by considering different durations so they can System Operability Framework suite of reports. This will consider the impact of a Given the success of these, we continue to be better represented in our assessment. These improvements made our models more range of technologies on system operability, apply them this year. We’ve also used our rather than focus on interconnectors in isolation. stakeholders’ feedback to improve the NOA. accurate and gave more informed results. • The NOA pathfinding projects – In 2018, • Changes to the handover process – The following areas are new additions for the Following stakeholders’ feedback on NOA 2019/20. we published our Network Development NOA 2018/19, we’ve refined our system Roadmap for the coming years, committing requirements form and developed an • Interactivity and use of maps in the NOA to conducting pathfinding projects to explore interactive handover tool to deliver a smoother report – New features include changing ways of including other system needs. handover process of information. This yearly the appearance to making the report more For example, regional reactive requirements, tool development allows us to continuously interactive for a better experience. A key stability of frequency, voltage requirements improve the TOs’ experience of submitting innovation is the interactive map included for network users, year-round system their options to be assessed in the NOA, in Chapter 4 – ‘Investment recommendations’ requirements using a probabilistic approach, while at the same time adding an extra level which show the options and recommendations. and a broader range of market participants of quality assurance to the NOA process. • Publishing our system requirement forms for providing whole system solutions. • New ESO data hub – To increase our – We have made the SRF publicly available We’ve made progress in those areas this transparency we have introduced the ESO as a workbook on our website as a first step year. For the most up-to-date information data hub. In future we will be looking to in our pathway to facilitate options from a on pathfinding projects, please visit the see how we can utilise this hub to improve broader range of participants and increase Network Development Roadmap webpage. the NOA. We always welcome suggestions transparency in our processes. The SRF are • Changes to the NOA for Interconnectors so please let us know how we can further the first step in the NOA process and identify – This year, we’ve revised the interconnector develop it to meet your needs. baseline level methodology to provide a NOA 14 2019/20 2 Methodology

> 2.1 Introduction and the NOA process > 2.2 The NOA process > 2.3 Economic analysis theory > 2.4 How the NOA connects to the SWW process NOA 15 2019/20 2.1 Introduction and the NOA process

This chapter highlights the methodology Some users’ connection agreements have major we use for the NOA, and explains the reinforcements as their required enabling works process and economic theory behind for connection. If the NOA recommends a our analysis. It also explains how the change to the delivery of these works, we will NOA ties in with the SWW process. work with these users to identify if any updates are required to their agreement. Their connections The NOA methodology describes how we will not be delayed. assess major NETS reinforcements to meet the requirements identified from our analysis Watch our two short videos from our of the FES. This year’s methodology is published YouTube site that explain both the NOA on our website, it also includes the methodologies process and what the future holds for for interconnection analysis included in the process: Chapter 5 – ‘Interconnection analysis’ and the SWW process. In accordance with our licence condition, major NETS reinforcements are defined in paragraph 1.28 of the NOA report methodology as: “a project or projects in development to deliver additional boundary capacity or alternative NOA process Future of the system benefits, as identified in the Electricity NOA process Ten Year Statement or equivalent document.” NOA 16 2019/20 2.2 The NOA process

Figure 2.1 The NOA process

FES ETYS Network Options Assessment (NOA)

Input Requirements Options Selection NOA Committee Output

Stakeholder Network Network Economic Discussion NOA publication engagement analysis analysis analysis of marginal GB investment process Future Reinforcement of options and sensitive recommendations UK generation transmission options Selection options and and demand capabilities to meet of preferred sign off of all scenarios and requirements options recommendations requirements NOA 17 2019/20 2.2 The NOA process

2.2.1 Future energy scenarios (FES) These energy scenarios were based on two drivers ‘level of decentralisation’ and The first stage of the NOA process starts ‘speed of decarbonisation’. The FES 2019 with the FES. These are a credible range scenarios are unchanged from FES 2018 of future scenarios across the whole energy and Community Renewables and Two system and the electricity components form Degrees meet the original Climate Change the foundation for our studies and economic Act 2008 target of achieving an 80 per cent analysis. The four scenarios published in reduction in greenhouse gas emissions 2019 are: by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.

Consumer Community Evolution Renewables The new target of net zero emissions by 2050 isn’t met by any of the FES 2019 scenarios, although the implications of this target are discussed in chapter 6 of the document. For more information on our FES, see FES 2019, which you Steady Two can find at: Progression Degrees Level of decentralisationLevel of

> FES document

Speed of decarbonisation NOA 18 2019/20 2.2 The NOA process

2.2.2 Electricity Ten Year Statement 2.2.3 Network Options Assessment Since the NOA 2017/18, we’ve operated the NOA Committee – consisting of ESO senior The ETYS is the second stage in the NOA To create an electricity transmission network fit management – as an additional, transparent process. We apply the FES to transmission for the future, all TOs propose options to meet level of scrutiny to our NOA recommendations. system models and calculate the power flow system capability requirements outlined by the In this final step, the investment recommendations requirements across the network. To do this, ETYS, this is the third stage in the NOA process. from our economic analysis are presented to we have developed the concept of boundaries. We encourage options that include upgrading the NOA Committee, which focuses on marginal These are a virtual split of the network into assets or creating new assets to give a wide recommendations driven by a single scenario or two parts. selection of options. driver, or recommendations which are considered to be sensitive, and challenges their single year As power transfers between these areas, we As well as these build options, both the TOs least regret analysis with implied probabilities can see which parts of the network are under and ESO can propose alternative options. and other evidence. the most stress and where reinforcement These are solutions requiring very little or no would be most needed. Network capability build and instead maximise use of existing The NOA Committee also provides wide- and its future requirements are published assets, often in innovative ways. You can ranging energy industry insight, and takes in the ETYS 2019, which you can find at: find a full list of the options we analysed in into account whole system needs to support Chapter 3 – ‘Proposed options’. or revise marginal investment recommendations. Ahead of the NOA Committee meeting, the ESO With these options, we move onto the fourth discusses economic analysis results with both stage of the NOA process, ‘Selection’. We use internal stakeholders and the TOs to make sure > ETYS document > NOA webpage our understanding of constraint costs to carry the final recommendations are robust. The TOs out economic analysis. This gives us the will be invited to present information at the options we believe provide the most benefit NOA Committee if at least one of their options for consumers. You can find the full list of (or joint options) is to be discussed. our recommended options in Chapter 4 – ‘Investment recommendations’. How we perform economic analysis is described in greater detail in the latest NOA report methodology. NOA 19 2019/20 2.3 Economic analysis theory

It is important to understand why Assessment of future constraint costs is an we recommend investment in the important factor in our decision-making process. transmission network. It enables us to evaluate and recommend investments such as adding new overhead The transfer of energy across our network lines and underground cables to the network. boundaries occurs because generation and We call these potential investments ‘options’ demand are typically in different locations. and, although they cost money, they also When the power transfer across a transmission increase the capability of the network, meaning system boundary is above that boundary’s that more power can be transferred across capability, our control room must reduce the boundaries without the need to constrain. transfer to avoid overloading the transmission assets. This is called ‘constraining’ We work with the TOs to upgrade the the network. transmission networks at the right time in the right places to give the best balance between When this happens, we ask generators on the investing in the network and constraining it. exporting side of the stressed boundaries to limit their output. To maintain an energy balance, You can find out more information about the we replace this energy with generation on economic analysis in our full NOA report the importing side. Balancing the network by methodology (paragraphs 2.61 to 2.84). switching generation on and off costs money, This includes a detailed explanation of the and if we are regularly constraining the network cost-benefit analysis, the single year least by large amounts, costs begin to accumulate. worst regret selection process and our economic modelling tool. The latest NOA report methodology was approved by Ofgem in October 2019. NOA 20 2019/20 2.4 How the NOA connects to the SWW process

We use the NOA process to look at the costs and benefits of potential options and put forward our recommendations. If a large infrastructure It’s important to note that the The NOA process and SWW initial option is recommended that satisfies one of the criteria below, this relevant TO leads on developing Needs Case analysis may share option is referred to as SWW. These are led by the TOs, which develop the Needs Cases for SWW the same study background. the Needs Case for such an option, with the support of the ESO. projects, and the ESO supports with the economic analysis. The Where appropriate, we may use TO initiates the Needs Case work NOA results as part of the initial Option for NGET: Option for NGET: Option for NGET: for SWW projects depending on Needs Case with the agreement > £500 million Between £100 million < £100 million certain factors, including the of the relevant TOs. We have and £500 million forecast costs, and whether they published our methodology for the & supported by only 1 customer trigger the SWW funding formula. ESO process for input into TO-led Another important factor is the SWW Needs Case submissions For England & not required in most scenarios time needed to deliver the option. on our website. and Wales & requires consent This, combined with when the Although SWW projects can option is needed, determines when usually be identified via the NOA Considered as SWW to start building. The closer this process, there are also SWW date is, the sooner the TO needs projects driven by other factors, to pursue the detailed analysis to such as customer connections. Option for SHE Transmission: Option for SP Transmission: justify the SWW funding. The NOA report provides a > £50 million > £100 million summary of these SWW projects in Appendix B – ‘SWW Projects’. & output will deliver additional cross boundary (or sub-boundary) capability or wider system benefit However, these options provide no boundary benefit and are excluded For Scotland & costs cannot be recovered under any provision of the TO’s price control settlement from the NOA economic analysis. We also exclude SWW projects whose final Needs Case have Considered as SWW been approved by Ofgem. NOA 21 2019/20 2.4 How the NOA connects to the SWW process

Prospective SWW projects excluded from this NOA are summarised below. • Scottish Islands SWW, including Western Isles link, Shetland link, and Orkney link. Orkney link formed part of the final Needs Cases of the Scottish islands SWW. We included a summary of these SWWs in our previous NOA publications when they were being developed, even though they are reinforcements for radial connections and don’t provide benefit to a particular boundary. As they advance to the approval stage, we no longer include them as potential SWWs. These projects, however, are included in our competition assessment for connections. • England and Wales SWW, including Hinkley to Seabank project, and Wylfa to Pentir. The final Needs Case for Hinkley to Seabank project was approved by Ofgem in early 2018. The project is considered in the base networks and not assessed for cost and benefit in this NOA. Work on the Wylfa to Pentir second double circuit has now been suspended and the project is therefore excluded from assessment in the NOA. NOA 22 2019/20 3 Proposed options > 3.1 Introduction > 3.2 The system boundaries > 3.3 The options NOA 23 2019/20 3.1 Introduction Proposed options

This chapter summarises the to increase operating temperature limits, or reinforcement options that could additional cooling. Operational options usually increase the NETS boundary capability. provide additional transfer capabilities without It also provides an overview of the physically uprating the network. transmission system boundaries This is normally by operational measures (such we’ve studied as part of the NOA. as special running arrangements), sometimes together with commercial arrangements. We We’ve listened to our stakeholders and provided give more details of alternative options in table a new look to Chapter 3 – ‘Proposed options’ 2.2 in the NOA report methodology. Our role which now covers both the NOA options and also includes early development of offshore a more concise description of the boundaries. options in accordance with Part D of licence For a more detailed boundary description, condition C27. This is so that we can carry out please read our ETYS report. A summary NOA analysis of these options. You can find out of options that have started the SWW process more about this in section 3.3 – ‘The options’ are included in Appendix B – ‘SWW projects’. of this chapter. A more detailed description of the options, as well as the boundaries can be found in Appendix C – ‘List of options’. Most of the options we’ve analysed are large asset-based solutions but we’ve also explored small scale, low cost solutions. These can include overhead line conductor re-profiling NOA 24 2019/20 3.2 The system boundaries

We use boundaries to represent pinch As more renewable generation is built in Offshore wind farms and interconnectors points on the electricity transmission Scotland, the flows to reach demand in the also affect East Anglia and Kent. Demand in network. How constrained the boundaries English Midlands and in and around London London and the surrounding area pulls more are varies from hour to hour, day to day cross boundaries B0 to B9. The urban areas power from this new offshore wind capacity, and year to year. Power flows across in the Scottish central belt, north east England, and interconnector flows increase or reduce Yorkshire and Lancashire are also high demand this flow of electricity. As a result, boundaries the system can be significantly areas. Some of this demand is offset by local such as EC5, LE1 and SC3 are constrained, impacted by changing demand generation, such as nuclear stations at Torness although interconnectors can reverse the flows and generation patterns. and Heysham, and by ever-increasing offshore on some of these boundaries. Our studies wind; however, there is still an excess of investigate the magnitude and direction of The move towards renewable generation generation. New interconnectors planned to these power flows and how we can as part of decarbonisation policies and link to Norway from Peterhead (near Aberdeen) accommodate them. meeting emissions targets is a big and Blyth (near Newcastle) will greatly affect the factor in how constraints on boundaries overall flows. Interconnectors to other We monitor boundaries in Wales and south west are changing. You can find a fuller European electricity markets help to manage England for economic and efficient investments. description of our system boundaries the electricity network, and increasing volumes Future offshore wind and biomass connecting in this year’s ETYS. of intermittent renewable generation, as well in North Wales have the potential to drive as better security and competition, but may increased power flows eastwards into the also drive boundary reinforcement. Midlands across NW4 boundary. The changing generation mix is unlikely to prompt investment through the NOA mechanism at present. NOA 25 2019/20 3.2 The system boundaries

B0 Substation

B0 400 kV substations 275 kV substations 132 kV substations

Circuit B0 400 kV 275 kV 220 kV 132 kV Dounreay Thurso South Offshore AC cable Substation Spittal Offshore DC cable Mybster Interconnectors Beatrice Cassley Figure 3.1 shows all the boundaries Stornoway Dunbeath B0 Boundary Lairg B1a 400 kV substations

Brora Harris Shin Loch Buidhe considered for this year’s NOA analysis. Caithness B2a Moray 275 kV substations HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie 132 kV substations Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff Hover over the magnifying glass to zoom Ardmore St. Fergus Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce B2a Persley in to North and South regions respectively. Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Circuit Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve 400 kV Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes Fort William Errochty Power Station B2 Errochty Brechen Rannoch 275 kV Clunie Figure 3.1 North Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay B4 Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie 220 kV Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan B5 SCOTTISH HDRO ELECTRIC Cupar 132 kV Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION B0 Glenrothes Substation Leven Dounreay ThursoB1a South Devonside Westfield Redhouse B0 400 kV substations Whistlefield Kincardine 275 kV substations Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Offshore AC cable Denny Mossmorran 132 kV substations Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Circuit Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness B2 Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse 400 kV Bathgate Kaimes Offshore DC cable Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago 275 kV Spittal Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton B6 Moor Newarthill 220 kV Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill 132 kV Mybster Black Law Extension Berwick NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Dounreay Thurso South Offshore AC cable East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby Offshore DC cable East Spittal Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Mybster Kilbride Interconnectors Hunterston Kilmarnock Interconnectors Beatrice Saltcoats South Town Whitelee Extn Linnmill Cassley Eccles Stornoway Dunbeath Boundary B3b Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Beatrice Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Lairg B1a Brora Clyde (North) Harris Ayr Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness B2a Cassley Coylton Clyde (South) Moray Elvanfoot Hawick HVDC New Cumnock Grudie Bridge Mossford Stornoway Maybole Moffat Fyrish Alness Dunbeath Black Hill Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Glenglass Luichart Orrin Boundary Elgin Macduff St. Fergus B3b Auchenwynd Ardmore Dun Hill Keith Harestanes Deanie Hadyard Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Carsfad Ewe Hill Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce B2a Persley B4 Kintore Glen Kendoon Willowdale To Northern Ireland Markhill Blackcraig Broadford Morrison Tomatin Blyth Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Gretna Clayhills Aberdeen Glenlee B0 Fort Augustus Boat of Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Auchencrosh Glendoe Redmoss Fourstones Invergarry Substation Newton Fetteresso Earlstoun Tynemouth Kincardine Lairg Stewart B1a Melgarve South Shields Kinlochleven B0 Chapelcross Harker Tummel Fiddes 400 kV substations Stella West West Boldon 275 kV substations Fort William Errochty Power Station B2 Errochty Brechen B5 Glenluce Tongland Rannoch 132 kV substations Offerton Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Hawthorn Pit Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie B4Circuit Brora Cashlie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope 400 kV Hartmoor Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans 275 kV Harris Spennymoor Hartlepool Nant Clachan Inverarnan B5 SCOTTISH HDRO ELECTRIC Cupar 220 kV B7 Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Glenrothes 132 kV Leven Loch Buidhe B1a Dounreay Thurso South Devonside Westfield Offshore AC cable Shin Redhouse Whistlefield Kincardine Norton Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Offshore DC cable Robin Rigg Port Ann Spittal Caithness Greystones Mybster Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Interconnectors B2a Grangetown Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo BeatriceBainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness B2 Cassley Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Stornoway Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Lackenby Dunbeath Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton B6Boundary Moor Newarthill B6 Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Moray North Black Law Extension Dunlaw Extension Berwick Hunterston Strathaven East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby B1a Lairg East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride SaltcoatsBrora Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Harris B3b Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD B7 B7a CarradaleShin Loch Buidhe Kilmarnock Galashiels HVDC CaithnessSouth Coalburn B2a Ayr Moray Clyde (North) HVDCCoylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick Grudie Bridge Mossford New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Fyrish Alness Black Hill Glenglass Western B3b Corriemoillie Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Fraserburgh Hadyard Mossford Hutton Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus B11 Ardmore Carsfad Ewe Hill HVDC Walney Keith Grudie Bridge DeanieB4 Dingwall Strichen Extension To Northern IrelandCulligran Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig Aigas Nairn Blackhillock Blyth Kilmorack Inverness Glenlee Gretna Link Ormonde Dunvegan Arecleoch Kilgallioch Dumfries Ecclefechan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Auchencrosh Fourstones Newton Earlstoun Knocknagael Stewart Tynemouth Fasnakylee ChapelcrossDyce Harker B2a South Shields Persley Walney I II Quernmore Kintore Stella West West Boldon Heysham Osbaldwick B5 Glen Glenluce Tongland Alness Broadford Tomatin Willowdale Knaresborough Morrison Offerton B16 Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Fyrish Clayhills Hawthorn Pit Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Garten Craigiebuckler Hartmoor West of Duddon Sands Middleton Quoich Tarland Redmoss Corriemoillie Thornton Glendoe Spennymoor Barrow Bradford Hornsea Hartlepool Fraserburgh Invergarry Tod Point B7 Saltholme Teesside Fetteresso West Kirkstall Poppleton Westermost Rough Kincardine Skelton Creyke Beck Norton Melgarve Robin Rigg Greystones Padiham Kinlochleven Grangetown Stanah Grange Monk Tummel Fiddes Luichart B7a Fryston Saltend B6 Lackenby Orrin Fort William Errochty Power Station B2 Hedon Errochty Brechen Elgin Macduff North B7 Rannoch B7a St. Fergus Penwortham Elland Drax Humber Gateway Clunie Saltend South Tummel Bridge Tealing Ardmore Dudhope Eggborough Western Arbroath Lochay Hutton Rochdale Ferrybridge B11 Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie B4 NW4 B11 HVDC Walney Keith Extension Taynuilt Killin Link Charleston Ormonde To Ireland B16 Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope NW3 Washway Keadby Humber Refinery B8 Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes Walney I II Quernmore EC1 St. Fillans Heysham Osbaldwick Deanie Templeborough Thorpe Nant Inverarnan Knaresborough Farm Kearsley Whitegate Clachan B16 B5 Killingholme SCOTTISH HDRO ELECTRIC Strichen Marsh Cupar West of Duddon Sands Middleton Thornton Burbo Kirkby West South Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Barrow Bradford Hornsea Dingwall West Kirkstall Poppleton Westermost Rough Glenrothes Skelton Creyke Beck Culligran Stalybridge Grimsby West Padiham Bank III Carrington Melton Humber Leven Stanah Grange Monk Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor B1a B7a Devonside Westfield Fryston Saltend West Redhouse Wylfa South Stocksbridge Whistlefield Kincardine North Hedon NW2 Rainhill Bank Stirling Dunfemline Aldwarke Glenniston Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Denny Mossmorran Elland Saltend South Winco Bank Burton B9 Port Ann Blackhillock Birkenhead Manchester Longannet Inverkeithing Eggborough Nairn NW4 Rochdale Ferrybridge B11 Bredbury Thurcroft Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Neepsend To IrelandSpango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo B16 Aigas Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Humber Refinery NW3 Torness B8 Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Washway Keadby Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Drumcross Whitehouse Thorpe EC1 Rocksavage B2 Erskine Lambhill Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Sheffield City Bathgate Kaimes North Hoyle EC3 Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Marsh Kilmorack Inverness Smeaton Burbo Kirkby West South Cottam Coatbridge Livingston B6 Ferry Moor Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Grimsby West NW1 Race Bank Newarthill Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor Melton Humber Hywind Brinsworth Dudgeon Crossaig Clydes Mill Wylfa Stocksbridge West Hunterston NeilstonNW2 Rainhill South Bank Black Law Extension Berwick Aldwarke Dunvegan Flintshire Jordanthorpe NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Winco Bank Burton B9 Peterhead Frodsham East Black Law BirkenheadMarshall Meadows Manchester Busby Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Norton Lees East Bridge Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines Bodelwyddan Kilbride North Hoyle Rocksavage Sheffield City EC3 Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Hunterston Kilmarnock Ferry Cottam Pentir Saltcoats Town NW1South Race Bank Whitelee Extn Linnmill Brinsworth Dudgeon Capenhurst Lincs Eccles Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe Beauly B3b Meadowhead Norton Lees Chesterfield Carradale Kilmarnock SP TRANSMISSION LTD Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Coalburn Pentir Galashiels Connah’s Quay High South Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs Connah’s Quay High Dinorwig FigureAyr 3.1Clyde (North) Dinorwig South NW1 CoyltonNW1 Marnham Marnham Clyde (South) EC5 Elvanfoot Hawick Lynn Sheringham Shoal EC5 New Cumnock Staythorpe Sheringham Shoal Maybole Moffat Legacy EC3 Lynn Black Hill Ffestiniog Cellarhead Knocknagael Glenglass Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Staythorpe B3b NW2Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Ratcliffe Legacy EC3 Willington on Soar Fasnakylee Ewe Hill Dyce Carsfad Ffestiniog Cellarhead Trawsfynydd Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen B4 B17 To Northern Ireland NW3Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig NW2 Blyth Walpole B2a Gretna Drakelow East Anglia Rugeley Ratcliffe Arecleoch Kilgallioch Glenlee Dumfries Ecclefechan Spalding Persley Auchencrosh Fourstones North Newton Scroby Sands Earlstoun Tynemouth Sutton Necton Willington on Soar Stewart Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main Chapelcross Harker South Shields Bushbury Bridge Kintore NW4 Stella West West Boldon Willenhall Trawsfynydd B5 Glenluce Tongland B17 Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Offerton EC5 Glen Hams Hall HawthornOcker HillPit NW3 Nechells Coventry Willowdale Walpole Hartmoor Oldbury Drakelow East Anglia Spennymoor Berkswell Tomatin Rugeley HartlepoolKitwell B7 Broadford Morrison Spalding Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Norton Burwell Main Siewell LE1 North Robin Rigg Scroby Sands GreystonesFeckenham Grendon Necton B8 GrangetownBishops Wood Eaton Ironbridge Sutton Norwich Main Socon Ryhall B6 Lackenby B15 Woodhill Bushbury Bridge Patford Foyers NW4 B9 Bramford Caennacroc Bridge Willenhall B7 B7a Greater Gabbard Clayhills Sundon S3C Shrewsbury East Claydon Pelham Braintree Penn Enderby B12 Wymondley Aberdeen Bustleholm Western Leighton Boat of Hutton EC5 Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) B11 Buard Hams Hall HVDC Walney Rassau Walham Bulls Lodge Extension Rye House SC2 Fort Augustus Link Ormonde Rhigos Imperial Ocker Hill Brimsdown Park B14 Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Cowley Walney I II Swansea North Quernmore Watford Elstree Highbury To Netherlands Nechells Coventry SW1 Pembroke Heysham Osbaldwick Amersham Main London Array Garten B16 Knaresborough Hackney Craigiebuckler Culham Tottenham Redbridge Rayleigh Main Oldbury Baglan Bay Cilfynydd Mill Hill West of Duddon Sands Middleton Minety Didcot Warley Tarland Barrow Margam Upper Boat Uskmouth Iron Acton Thornton Willesden Hornsea Quoich Bradford Berkswell Coryton Whitson Iver Kensal Green West Ham Kitwell Pyle West Kirkstall Poppleton Westermost Rough Barking Redmoss Skelton Creyke Beck Ealing Pudding Padiham Grain Stanah Monk St Johns City Rd Mill Hurst Tilbury Grange Wood West Thurrock Thanet Glendoe B7a Seabank Fryston Saltend Kentish Flats Wimbledon New Cross Northfleet Tremorfa North Hedon Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill PenworthamAberthaw Cardiff Elland MelkshamDrax Humber Gateway Chessington SC1 Saltend South Richborough East Eggborough West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown To Belgium Burwell Main Siewell LE1 SW1 NW4 Rochdale Ferrybridge Bramley B11 To Ireland NW3 Humber Refinery Fleet B8 Canterbury B16 Washway Keadby North Feckenham Grendon Farm Kearsley Templeborough Thorpe EC1 B10 Whitegate Killingholme Invergarry Bishops Wood Eaton Burbo Kirkby Hinkley Point West Marsh South Sellindge B8 Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West West Sellindge Gwynt y Mor BridgwaterPitsmoor West Socon NW2 Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank B13 Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton B9 B15 Alverdiscot Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Fiddlers Daines North Hoyle Rocksavage Sheffield City BolneyEC3 NW1 Ferry Cottam Race Bank FetteressoB9 Patford Bramford Flintshire Taunton Jordanthorpe Brinsworth Nursling Dudgeon Frodsham Norton Lees Bodelwyddan Bridge Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Dungeness Bridge Pentir Capenhurst Lincs Chesterfield Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Connah’s Quay High Kincardine Dinorwig Axminster Greater Gabbard NW1 Marnham Fawley Botley Wood EC5 SC1 Lynn Sheringham Shoal S3C Staythorpe Sundon Exeter Legacy EC3 SC3 Melgarve Pelham Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph East Claydon Braintree NW2 Bicker Fen To France B12 Wymondley Chickerell Ratcliffe Willington on Soar Rampion Leighton Trawsfynydd B17 B15 Buard Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) NW3 Langage Abham B10 Rassau Bulls Lodge Drakelow Walpole East Anglia Kinlochleven Walham Indian Queens Landulph Rugeley Rye House SC2 Spalding B12 Fiddes North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Tummel Rhigos Imperial Ironbridge Ryhall LE1 Norwich Main Brimsdown NW4 Bushbury Bridge SC2 Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Willenhall B14 Shrewsbury Enderby Cowley Highbury Penn Bustleholm EC5 Swansea North Watford Elstree London Array To Netherlands Hams Hall SW1 Pembroke Amersham Main Ocker Hill Hackney Nechells Coventry Tottenham Rayleigh Main Oldbury Cilfynydd Culham Mill Hill Redbridge Kitwell B1Berkswell3 Baglan Bay Minety Warley Margam Upper Boat Uskmouth Iron Acton Didcot Willesden Fort William Errochty Power Station Coryton Burwell Main Siewell LE1 Iver Kensal Green West Ham Feckenham Grendon Whitson Barking B8 Bishops Wood Eaton Pyle Ealing Pudding Socon B2 St Johns Grain B15 Errochty City Rd Mill Tilbury Wood Hurst West Thurrock Thanet B9 Patford Bramford Brechen Seabank Kentish Flats Bridge Wimbledon New Cross Greater Gabbard Northfleet Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth Sundon S3C Rannoch Tremorfa East East Claydon Pelham Braintree Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Chessington SC1 B12 Wymondley Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Leighton Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Rowdown Richborough Rassau Buard Bulls Lodge East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington To Belgium Walham Rye House SC2 SW1 Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Park B14 Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Clunie Cowley Highbury Swansea North Watford Elstree London Array To Netherlands Fleet Canterbury SW1 Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney Cilfynydd Culham Tottenham Redbridge Rayleigh Main Baglan Bay Mill Hill Warley North Upper Boat Uskmouth Minety Didcot Willesden Margam Iron Acton Coryton Whitson Iver Kensal Green West Ham Pyle Ealing Barking Pudding Grain B10 St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Hurst Wood West Thurrock Thanet Hinkley Point Sellindge Seabank Kentish Flats Wimbledon New Cross Northfleet Tremorfa Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Tummel Bridge Tealing West Sellindge Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington SC1 Richborough Beddington Rowdown To Belgium Bridgwater SW1 East Bramley West Weybridge Fleet Canterbury B13 Alverdiscot North B10 Hinkley Point Sellindge West Sellindge Dudhope Bolney B13 Bridgwater Arbroath Nursling Alverdiscot Taunton Bolney Lochay Taunton Nursling Dungeness Dungeness B4 Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Milton of Craigie Marchwood Cashlie Lyndhurst Mannington Lovedean Ninfield Axminster Axminster SC1 Fawley Botley Wood Botley Wood Exeter SC3 Fawley To France SC1 Chickerell Exeter Rampion B15 Taynuilt Killin Charleston SC3 Langage Abham B10 Finlarig To France Indian Queens Landulph B12 Dalmally Dudhope Chickerell LE1 Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes SC2 Rampion B15 Langage Abham B10 B13 St. Fillans Indian Queens Landulph B12 Nant Clachan Inverarnan B5LE1 SCOTTISH HDRO ELECTRIC Cupar SC2 Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes B13 Leven B1a Devonside Westfield Redhouse Whistlefield Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness B2 Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton B6 Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles B3b Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass B3b Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard B4 Carsfad Ewe Hill To Northern Ireland Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig Gretna Blyth Arecleoch Kilgallioch Glenlee Dumfries Ecclefechan Auchencrosh Fourstones Newton Earlstoun Stewart Tynemouth Chapelcross Harker South Shields Stella West West Boldon B5 Glenluce Tongland Offerton Hawthorn Pit Hartmoor Spennymoor Hartlepool B7 Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Norton Robin Rigg Greystones Grangetown B6 Lackenby B7 B7a

Western Hutton B11 HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Quernmore Walney I II Heysham Osbaldwick B16 Knaresborough West of Duddon Sands Middleton Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough Stanah Padiham Grange Monk B7a Fryston Saltend North Hedon Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Elland Saltend South Eggborough NW4 Rochdale Ferrybridge B11 To Ireland B16 NW3 Washway Keadby Humber Refinery B8 Thorpe EC1 Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Burbo Kirkby West Marsh South Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor West NW2 Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton B9 Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Fiddlers North Hoyle Rocksavage Daines Sheffield City EC3 Ferry Cottam NW1 Brinsworth Race Bank Dudgeon Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe Bodelwyddan Bridge Norton Lees Pentir Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs Connah’s Quay High NW1 Dinorwig Marnham EC5 Sheringham Shoal Staythorpe Lynn Legacy EC3 Ffestiniog Cellarhead NW2 Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Ratcliffe Willington on Soar NW3 Trawsfynydd B17 Walpole Rugeley Drakelow East Anglia Spalding North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main NW4 Bushbury Bridge Willenhall Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Hams Hall EC5 Ocker Hill Nechells Coventry Oldbury Kitwell Berkswell

Burwell Main Siewell LE1 Feckenham Grendon B8 Bishops Wood Eaton Socon B15 B9 Patford Bramford Bridge Greater Gabbard Sundon S3C East Claydon Pelham Braintree B12 Wymondley Leighton Rassau Buard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Walham Rye House SC2 Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Park B14 Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Cowley Swansea North Watford Elstree Highbury To Netherlands SW1 Pembroke Amersham Main London Array Hackney Cilfynydd Culham Tottenham Redbridge Rayleigh Main Baglan Bay Mill Hill Warley Upper Boat Uskmouth Minety Didcot Willesden Margam Iron Acton Coryton Iver Kensal Green West Ham Whitson Barking Pyle Ealing Pudding St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain Wood Hurst West Thurrock Thanet Seabank Kentish Flats Wimbledon New Cross Northfleet Tremorfa Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington SC1 Richborough Beddington Rowdown To Belgium SW1 East Bramley West Weybridge Fleet Canterbury North B10 Hinkley Point Sellindge West Sellindge Bridgwater B13 Alverdiscot Bolney Taunton Nursling Dungeness Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Axminster SC1 Fawley Botley Wood Exeter SC3

Chickerell To France Rampion B15 Langage Abham B10 Indian Queens Landulph B12 LE1 SC2

B13 NOA 26 2019/20 3.3 The options

We provide an overview of the options 3.3.1 Upgrade existing circuits network has been configured to meet previous needs; for instance, the location of generation. in this chapter, with more detail in Examples include replacing overhead line Appendix C – ‘List of options’ which Options improve the balance of flows by making conductors, replacing sections of cable, or the ends of two circuits as connected as is listed according to the option codes increasing the operating voltage, often from we use. Options fall into two broad possible. New substations and redirecting 275 kV to 400 kV. A cheaper approach where circuits into existing substations can achieve groups: asset-based options; and ESO possible is to make the most of the clearance this. Sometimes fault (or short circuit) levels or proposed options mentioned earlier. distance between overhead lines and nearby other characteristics of the network prevent us Some seek to use existing assets more structures, trees and other objects. Adjusting the from electrically connecting substations at the intensively, though the costs of doing conductor profile, for instance, by re-tensioning end of heavily-loaded circuits. Some options this can vary widely. the conductors can maintain the clearance replace switchgear and other substation distance while carrying higher flows. infrastructure to change how we operate the Thermal constraints substation and ease the constraint. 3.3.2 Develop new circuits Thermal constraints are the most common constraints. The constraint ‘bites’ when a fault This might be offshore High Voltage Direct 3.3.4 Control power flow overloads the weakest component on the Current (HVDC) links or new onshore circuits, If we want to alter the flow on a circuit, in some boundary. As the generation mix changes, even which often re-use existing assets. cases, it’s worth investing in suitable equipment. in the course of a single day, the overload can We can use quad boosters (QBs) and series move from one area to another. The size of the 3.3.3 Build a new substation or compensation, usually reactors, and expect overload and how much it moves influences the reconfigure an existing substation new technology to become an option that uses choice of investment. The cost of the proposed The aim is usually to optimise the flows on a pair solid-state electronics to control the flows – reinforcements, how much benefit they’ll of overhead line circuits. When the loading isn’t see references to power flow control device. provide, and their delivery date also influence balanced, one side will tend to overload before the choice. Options that could reduce thermal the other. This is often a result of how the constraints include, but aren’t limited to: NOA 27 2019/20 3.3 The options

3.3.5 Alternative options and we need to take this into account when Commercial solutions can be contracted flexibly designing the system. We do have means and don’t have a fixed ‘asset life’ or duration, These include two categories: operational to manage the system voltages using asset- so we’ve assessed when to discontinue them. options and reduced-build options. Where based solutions such as shunt reactors, We factor the availability and arming fee into the possible, we use low-cost means to control shunt capacitors, synchronous compensators operational costs based on our historical data. thermal loadings while meeting NETS SQSS and static reactive compensators (‘STATCOMs’, requirements. One approach is to reduce the ‘SVCs’). We also use commercial solutions Commercial solutions aren’t free of capital costs, loading on an overloaded circuit after a fault, by contracting with customers to produce but only need a relatively small initial investment for example, by quickly reducing generation. or consume reactive power but this involves (mostly on communication and control systems). an ongoing cost. We can experience stability This, together with the flexibility of their This can be by special arrangement with one constraints on weaker parts of the network, contracts, makes commercial solutions a or more generators for fast de-load services particularly when flows are high. Strengthening reasonable alternative option. We identified or an intertrip. Payment for the service is subject the network is often necessary but we are in this year’s NOA that commercial solutions to the scale and competitiveness of the market. exploring other approaches, such as fast could save GB consumers up to £950 million Another approach is to use dynamic ratings intertrips and series capacitors, to improve between 2023 and 2033. where we monitor a circuit’s temperature or the boundary capability. its immediate environment. This might allow Figure 3.2 groups the options for this year’s us to increase the rating slightly and relieve 3.3.7 ESO-led commercial solutions NOA and gives the total number for each the constraint. As mentioned earlier, we category. Each option has an associated icon describe alternative options in table 2.2 In the NOA 2019/20, commercial solutions which will be used throughout the report. of the NOA report methodology. formed an integral part of our NOA analysis. In this assessment, they are included in the 3.3.6 Voltage and stability constraints same way as asset-based reinforcements and form part of the final optimal paths, depending Some of the approaches detailed above affect on where the analysis indicates they are needed. the transmission system’s voltage performance NOA 28 2019/20 3.3 The options

Figure 3.2 The reinforcement options in their categories

Develop new circuits Control power flow Build a new substation Upgrade existing Voltage and stability Alternative options ESO-led commercial or reconfigure an circuits constraints solutions existing substation

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total 39 29 10 34 27 4 4

147 options submitted for economic analysis NOA 29 2019/20 3.3 The options

3.3.8 Excluded options We receive a wide range of options from the 3.3.10 Offshore wider works TOs for analysis and comparison, which we While this report looks at options that could then assess for cost and benefit. However, Our licence condition C27 obliges us help meet major NETS reinforcement needs, development of reinforcement in the network to undertake early development work for it doesn’t include: will be a continuous process where the costs offshore wider works. In 2015, we published • projects with no boundary benefit (unless they for some options in the distant future are the Integrated Offshore Transmission are specifically included for another reason, unknown. To represent these long-term Project which concluded that creating an such as links to the Scottish islands that trigger eventual reinforcements in our economic integrated offshore transmission network the SWW category). analysis, the TOs may also provide more wasn’t worthwhile. There is now more • options that provide benefits, such as voltage conceptualised reinforcements to support drive towards integration because of more control over the summer minimum, but no the long-term future network. expansion of offshore wind, such as round 4. boundary capability improvement. These There is also a need to avoid several parties will be published separately as part of our These options are in the very early stages trying to gain consents in the same land pathfinding projects. of development and are included in the NOA corridors to bring their connections to the process as an indicator for additional long-term onshore transmission system. The benefits • analysis of options where the costs for the of integration are that it provides boundary expected benefits would be prohibitive. reinforcement. Due to the conceptual nature of these reinforcements, it is highly likely that their capability and can connect offshore wind • long-term conceptual options submitted and interconnectors. by the TOs to support the analysis; this is costs are not reflective of the final design. Whilst explained in more detail below. the NOA will make recommendations on asset- based options, it does not include long-term For NOA 2019/20, our approach has been conceptual options and so their costs are not to investigate the economic benefit of simple 3.3.9 Long-term conceptual options counted in the overall total CAPEX of the NOA HVDC links connecting parts of the onshore We recommend options for the upcoming report has recommended reinforcement profile. system. We will investigate the benefits of investment year, and optimum delivery dates In NOA 2018/19, we identified three such connecting offshore generation as part of next over the next few decades. This long-term long-term conceptual options and provided year’s NOA. strategy allows the TOs to evolve and the necessary information to the TOs develop their electricity transmission networks regarding which needed to be developed to deliver the best value for consumers. into asset-based options proposals. NOA 30 2019/20 4 Investment recommendations > 4.1 Introduction > 4.2 Interpretation of the NOA > 4.3 The NOA outcomes > 4.4 Recommendation for each option > 4.5 Offshore wider works NOA 31 2019/20 4.1 Introduction

Chapter 4 presents our investment Secondly, compared to the last NOA, an Finally, the TOs have provided many new recommendations from our analysis, additional five options have moved from ‘hold’ options this year to replace the long-term which gives the most economic to ‘proceed’; as the NOA develops, we expect conceptual options we implemented last investment strategy for each scenario more reinforcements will be given ‘proceed’ year; a number of these projects have been and enables us to identify our preferred recommendations as the gap between delivery given ‘proceed’ recommendations this year. options and the recommended next and requirement closes. steps for works in each region.

Our NOA 2019/20 recommendations are based on robust economic analysis, then subject to further scrutiny by the NOA Committee. This £203m 39 £11.1bn will ensure development of the GB transmission Investing £203m this year Through 39 Total cost of £11.1bn1 network will continue to support the transition asset-based options to the future energy landscape in an efficient, economical and coordinated way. The rise in total costs from NOA 2018/19 can be explained by three main factors. Firstly, FES 2019 has identified further increases 3 £950m in offshore wind generation in the north and Develop 3 ESO-led Providing additional East Anglia. We foresee this rise as an extra commercial solutions consumer benefits 3.3 GW in the north and 3.1 GW in East Anglia of up to £950m between 2024 and 2029, compared to FES 2018, which is driving further investment.

1 £11.1 billion only includes the cost for E2DC and not E2D2. These projects are mutually exclusive and therefore only one will be delivered in full. NOA 32 2019/20 4.1 Introduction

Figure 4.1 This year we have conducted a sensitivity test removed by NOA recommended options, How the options went through the process on our analysis to identify the impact Contracts often because the major asset-based for Difference (CfD) could have in reducing reinforcements cannot be delivered early constraint costs. CfDs are the mechanism enough. This pathfinder has focused on 147 options submitted for economic analysis for subsidising wind, replacing Renewable developing a potential new service which acts (143 asset-based options and 4 ESO-led options) Obligation Certificates (ROC) previously used. within timescales of less than 150 ms to increase There is limited historical evidence of how demand or remove power from the network 91 options optimal under 56 options windfarms with CfDs might bid into the after a fault occurs in times of high constraints. at least one scenario non-optimal balancing mechanism, so we are working with academics on how bidding strategies may The project released a Request for Information 45 46 Stop Do not start change. Our preliminary modelling suggests no (RFI) on 17 December 2019. The responses options options progressing with the change in the NOA 2019/20 recommendations will inform the viability of this new service. considered considered with 10 remaining and reinforces our confidence in the results. We The constraint management pathfinder is not critical non-critical options 46 will continue to develop our modelling of wind intended to compete with any potential asset- that are non-optimal constraint costs ahead of NOA 2020/21. If you based options, though the findings are expected non-optimal options would like to feed into this conversation, please to inform the development of commercial contact us on [email protected]. solutions that will compete with asset-based Proceed 47 with the options options. The service has the potential to be delivery of to be put In addition to the main NOA process, several extended to other regions where the NOA 42 on hold pathfinding projects have been set up to recommended asset-based options have not options address other system needs by increasing been able to clear the full constraint levels, industry participation and reducing consumer where it is economic and efficient to do so. costs. One of these is the constraint We believe the service is most valuable where Delay the management pathfinder which is aimed at intermittent generation, most notably wind, delivery of lowering network constraint costs by reducing is high. 2 residual constraints, which are those constraints options that still exist after the NOA optimal paths have been recommended. These constraints are not NOA 33 2019/20 4.2 Interpretation of the NOA outcomes

This section explains how to interpret all scenarios, the optimum delivery date(s) of an Economic regret the NOA outcomes, including the option are later than its EISD, the option is non- economic analysis results and our critical and a decision can be put on hold until In economic analysis, the regret of an investment recommendations. there is greater certainty. investment strategy is the net benefit difference between that strategy and the 4.2.1 Optimal path and optimum 4.2.2 Critical options’ single year least best strategy for that scenario. So, under regret analysis each scenario, the best strategy will have delivery date a regret of zero, and the other strategies Our cost-benefit analysis investigates the A decision on each critical option must be will have different levels of regret depending economic benefits of different combinations made this year by the TOs and/or relevant on how they compare to the best strategy. of reinforcement options across four future parties, so it is further assessed in our single We always choose the strategy with the energy scenarios. We identify the single year least regret analysis. This measures and least regret across all scenarios. For more combination that provides the most value compares the regret of delivering each critical information, see Chapter 2 – ‘Methodology’. for the consumer, which we call the ‘optimal option against the regret of not delivering it. path’. A reinforcement on this path is considered If a region has multiple critical options, we ‘optimal’ if it is in the optimal path on any year compare the regret of delivering different in at least one scenario. An option is considered combinations. We always recommend the ‘non-optimal’ if it does not appear in any of the option, or combination of options, that ‘optimal paths’. minimises the levels of regret across all scenarios. If an option is driven by a single The optimal path not only shows the most scenario, we will further investigate the drivers economic options but also their optimum to ensure we make the right recommendation. completion years. If an option’s optimum delivery date is its current earliest in service date (EISD) in at least one scenario, it is considered a critical option, as an investment decision must be made by the TOs and/or relevant parties this year to meet the optimum delivery date. If under NOA 34 2019/20 4.2 Interpretation of the NOA outcomes

4.2.3 Investment recommendations The NOA Committee brings expertise from An option we don’t recommend to proceed across the ESO, including knowledge on can still be considered in any relevant Following the cost-benefit analysis and operability challenges, network capability SWW assessment. single year least regret analysis, we present development, commercial operations the results to the NOA Committee for additional and insight into future energy landscapes. As our energy landscape is changing, our scrutiny. It focuses on marginal options where All options will be allocated to one of the recommendations for an option may alter recommendations are driven by a single following outcomes: accordingly. This means an option we scenario or factor, or are considered sensitive recommended to proceed last year may be in terms of stakeholder engagement. recommended for ‘delay’ this year, and vice versa. The benefit of the single year least regret NOA outcome analysis is that an ongoing project is revaluated Through single year each year to ensure its planned completion least regret analysis, is date remains best for the consumer. the option economical Proceed to maintain its EISD? Yes Work should continue, or start Yes Is the option critical in at least Delay one scenario? No Delivery should be delayed by one year No Yes Hold Is the Delivery of this option should be option in the delayed by at least one year optimal path?

Yes Stop Delivery should not be continued Has the No project started?

No Do not start Delivery should not begin NOA 35 2019/20 4.2 Interpretation of the NOA outcomes

4.2.4 Eligibility for onshore competition In the competition assessment, we use three criteria: ‘new’, ‘separable’ and ‘high value’, Ofgem launched consultations on changes proposed by Ofgem in their latest guidance, to Electricity Transmission Standard Licence as indicators that an option is eligible for Condition C27 and a statutory consultation onshore competition. The option must fulfil started in December 2019. It proposed new all criteria to be considered. requirements for the ESO to assess projects recommended for further development in the • To assess if the option meets the ‘new’ NOA for their eligibility for competition, and criterion, we test whether it involves to undertake the same assessments on future completely new assets or the complete generator and demand connections to the replacement of an existing transmission asset. Ofgem launched transmission system. • To assess if the option meets the ‘separable’ a consultation in We believe it is sensible and pragmatic criterion, we test whether new assets can be December 2019, to continue to include an assessment for clearly delineated from other (existing) assets. competition in this NOA. This includes • To assess if the option meets the ‘high value’ click here to find options we recommend to proceed this criterion, we assess whether the capital out more. year, SWW projects with a Needs Case, expenditure for the assets which meet the new and contracted connections. and separable criteria is £100 million or more. We check costs provided by the TOs as part of our NOA process. NOA 36 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

This section presents the results • Drivers such as system needs or changes The economic analysis and initial of our economic analysis, investment to the energy landscape and network. recommendations were then further scrutinised recommendations, and eligibility for by the NOA Committee and the final onshore competition. The main outputs of the economic analysis, recommendation for each option is shown including optimal paths and initial investment on the interactive map in section 4.4 – In our economic analysis, we separated the recommendations, are shown in table 4.1 ‘Recommendations for each option’. GB network into two regions: Scotland and and 4.2 for the two regions. The optimal options There may be differences between initial the north of England; and the south and east are listed in four-letter codes (as detailed in and final recommendations for some options. of England. Wales has not been included Appendix C – ‘List of options’) with the Explanations are included as part of our in this year’s analysis due to generational optimum delivery dates highlighted in different regional narratives. In the interests of background changes. These reduce the flows colours for different scenarios. If an option transparency, we publish the minutes from across the boundaries below their current is not in the optimal path of a scenario, no the NOA Committee meetings on our website. capabilities and reduce the need to reinforce optimum delivery year will be highlighted. the network. For a more detailed description A full list of optimal options for each region with of the boundary capability across Wales please Several critical options could be progressed descriptions and optimum delivery dates can be refer to ETYS 2019. We present the economic this year in a number of combinations, one found in section 4.4. Some options are marked analysis results on this basis. of which will have the least worst regret across as ‘N/A’ as they are not optimal under that all scenarios. The options that make up this particular scenario. For each region, we focus on the following combination will be recommended to proceed. aspects to identify our final investment recommendations: The initial recommendations are indicated • The optimal paths by scenario, which highlight by different shadings in table 4.1 and 4.2. optimal options and their delivery dates. 56 options were not currently optimal under any of the scenarios and are not included. The initial • Critical options from the optimal paths and recommendation for those is either ‘Do not start’ single year least regret analysis, which produce or ‘Stop’ if work is already in progress. the ‘Proceed’ and ‘Delay’ recommendations. NOA 37 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.1 Scotland and the north Table 4.1 of England region Scotland and the north of England region

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Community Renewables 2035 Optimum year indicator for 2034 Consumer Evolution 2033 Optimum year indicator for 2032 Steady Progression EISD not yet reached 2031 Critical option to ‘Proceed’ 2030 Critical option to ‘Delay’ 2029 Non-critical option to ‘Hold’ 2028

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option HSP1 MRPC LNPC WHTI WLTI NOR2 HAEU CS35 ECU2 HNNO THS1 HAE2 CDP1 TDH2 CBEU NEPC DNEU NEP1 NOA 38 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.1 Scotland and the north Table 4.1 of England region Scotland and the north of England region (continued)

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option CTP2 KWPC CKPC CDHW TDPC ECVC ECUP TDH1 TDP2 OPN2 CDP2 KWHW E2DC DWNO LNRE NEMS NOR4 PWMS NOA 39 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.1 Scotland and the north Table 4.1 of England region Scotland and the north of England region (continued)

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option E2D2 CWPC E4D3 DEPC NOPC SHNS GWNC CGNC CRPC CDP4 E4L5 LBRE TLNO HSR1 NOA 40 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

For Scotland and the north of England region, Of the 50 optimal options, 28 are critical These 15 options, as seen in table 4.2, don’t we identified 50 optimal options as shown and could offer more than a million different need to be assessed in the single year least in table 4.1. Their optimum delivery dates possible combinations of ‘Proceed’ and ‘Delay’ regret analysis, as progressing them to maintain are highlighted in different colours for recommendations. The optimum delivery years their EISDs is the optimum course of action different scenarios. of the following options are the same as their under all scenarios. EISDs across all four scenarios. Table 4.2 ‘Critical’ options to ‘proceed’ to maintain EISD in Scotland and north England region Code Option description DWNO Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement E4D3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC E4L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Peterhead to the South Humber offshore HVDC ECU2 East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade ECUP East coast onshore 400 kV incremental reinforcement ECVC Eccles synchronous series compensation and real-time rating system GWNC A new 400 kV double circuit between South Humber and South Lincolnshire HAEU Harker supergrid transformer 6 replacement HNNO Hunterston East to Neilston 400 kV reinforcement HSP1 Power control device along Fourstones to Harker to Stella West LNPC Power control device along Lackenby to Norton MRPC Power control device along Penwortham to Kirkby SHNS Upgrade substation in the South Humber area THS1 Install series reactors at Thornton WHTI Turn-in of West Boldon to Hartlepool circuit at Hawthorn Pit NOA 41 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

This leaves 13 critical options, as seen in which we performed the single year least regret table 4.3, and just over 8,000 different possible analysis. The least regret strategy is to proceed combinations of the following reinforcements on with all critical options except WLTI and CDP1.

Table 4.3 ‘Critical’ options for least regret analysis in Scotland and north England region Code Option description CDP1 Power control device along Cellarhead to Drakelow CGNC A new 400 kV double circuit between Creyke Beck and the South Humber CS35 Commercial solution for Scotland and the north of England CTP2 Alternative power control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton E2D2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Cottam offshore HVDC E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Hawthorn Pit HAE2 Harker supergrid transformer 5 replacement NEP1 Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth to Blyth to South Shields NEPC Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth and Blyth to South Shields NOR2 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick number 1 400 kV circuit OPN2 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton and relevant 275 kV upgrades TLNO Torness to north east England AC onshore reinforcement WLTI Windyhill to Lambhill to Longannet 275 kV circuit turn-in to Denny North 275 kV substation NOA 42 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.2 Background setting and context optimal paths on our interactive map. Here are we confirmed the need for three links some highlights of our recommendations: to accommodate the increasing north-to- Scotland and the north of England is a typical south flows. These are from: ‘exporting’ region where installed generation • In the NOA 2018/19, we identified the need capacity is much more than enough to supply for additional transfer capabilities in the form • Torness to northern England its local demand. With greater demand in central of long-term conceptual reinforcements • Peterhead to northern England and south of England, the energy flows across and communicated this to the relevant TO. • North east Scotland to the South the Scottish and northern English boundaries For the NOA 2019/20, the TOs responded Humber area. are predominantly north-to-south, which is the with new asset-based reinforcements. We have assessed these reinforcements to be main driver for reinforcements to facilitate bulk The preferences over the second and third power transfer. beneficial and have replaced the conceptual reinforcements used in the previous NOA. links for the optimal paths are consistent For more information about these, see across all scenarios. For more information Across all the scenarios we assessed, we’ve see E4D3 and E4L5 on our interactive map. seen different levels of growth in total installed E4L5, SHNS, GWNC and CGNC on the interactive map. The analysis also suggested progressing both capacity in the next few decades. The similarity Torness to Hawthorn Pit (E2DC) and Torness is that wind energy is the main contributor. • We continued to explore how commercial to Cottam (E2D2) in the next investment cycle Hitting the target of an 80 per cent CO2 emission solutions may help further reduce constraint as they are favoured by different scenarios and reduction in 2050, the Two Degrees and costs. In this NOA, our improved methodology proceeding both options sees the lowest level Community Renewables scenarios will see means commercial solutions can be of regret. As the two Torness options are a much faster build-up of wind and a much decommissioned to reflect a flexible service mutually exclusive in delivery, we would higher total installed capacity in Scotland and life. We found one beneficial commercial recommend prioritising the delivery of E2DC the north of England. As a result, we need more solution in this region and recommend to maintain its EISD as it delivers more reinforcements delivered on their EISDs to meet developing it further. For more information, near-term benefits and produces a higher the transfer requirement. Consumer Evolution see CS35 on the interactive map. regret of being delayed. So we would accept and Steady Progression miss the 2050 target • This NOA included 15 eastern subsea HVDC a delay of E2D2’s EISD up to one year for and are less demanding on transfer capability link options between England and Scotland. the next NOA. See E2DC and E2D2 on and more reinforcements are put on hold. These fall into three different categories based the interactive map for more information. We include our recommendation and detailed on their connection locations and some of narratives for each of the reinforcements in the them are mutually exclusive. From the analysis, NOA 43 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

In conclusion, we recommend progressing with the following reinforcements in Scotland and the north of England region:

Table 4.4 Options to progress in Scotland and north England region Code Option description To meet its EISD of: HSP1 Power control device along Fourstones to Harker to Stella West 2020 MRPC Power control device along Penwortham to Kirkby 2020 LNPC Power control device along Lackenby to Norton 2020 WHTI Turn-in of West Boldon to Hartlepool circuit at Hawthorn Pit 2021 NOR2 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick number 1 400 kV circuit 2022 HAEU Harker supergrid transformer 6 replacement 2022 CS35 Commercial solution for Scotland and the north of England 2023 ECU2 East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade 2023 HNNO Hunterston East to Neilston 400 kV reinforcement 2023 THS1 Install series reactors at Thornton 2023 HAE2 Harker supergrid transformer 5 replacement 2023 NEP1 Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth to Blyth to South Shields 2024 CTP2 Alternative power control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton 2024 NOA 44 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

In conclusion, we recommend progressing with the following reinforcements in Scotland and the north of England region:

Table 4.4 Options to progress in Scotland and north England region (continued) Code Option description To meet its EISD of: ECVC Eccles synchronous series compensation and real-time rating system 2026 ECUP East coast onshore 400 kV incremental reinforcement 2026 OPN2 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton and relevant 275 kV upgrades 2027 E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Hawthorn Pit 2027 DWNO Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement 2028 E2D2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Cottam offshore HVDC 2028 E4D3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC 2029 SHNS Upgrade substation in the South Humber area 2031 GWNC A new 400 kV double circuit between South Humber and South Lincolnshire 2031 CGNC A new 400 kV double circuit between Creyke Beck and the South Humber 2031 E4L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Peterhead to the South Humber offshore HVDC 2031 TLNO Torness to north east England AC onshore reinforcement 2036 NOA 45 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.3 Eligibility assessment for The east coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) onshore competition would have to be split to meet the competition criterion for separability. Following this, we conducted eligibility assessment for onshore competition for We also assessed all new or modified all reinforcements recommended to proceed contracted connection projects in this region. this year in Scotland and the north of England. We identified the following projects which meet The following options meet the competition the competition criteria proposed by Ofgem: criteria proposed by Ofgem: • Orkney link. • A new 400 kV double circuit between Creyke Beck and the South Humber (CGNC) • Western Isles link. • Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness • Shetland link. to Cottam offshore HVDC (E2D2) • North Argyll substation. • Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness • Port Ann to Crossaig reinforcement. to Hawthorn Pit (E2DC) • Skye 2nd circuit reinforcement. • Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC (E4D3) The Orkney, Western Isles, and Shetland links • Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: are three SWW projects led by SHE Peterhead to the South Humber offshore Transmission. SHE Transmission submitted the HVDC (E4L5) Final Needs Cases to Ofgem for each of these projects during 2018. Please see Ofgem’s • A new 400 kV double circuit between South website for more information and updates on Humber and South Lincolnshire (GWNC) these projects. The Argyll, Port Ann to Crossaig • Torness to north east England AC onshore and Skye projects are proposed for connections reinforcement (TLNO) with the latter two having non-load asset • East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) replacement aspects and all three at varying stages of development. NOA 46 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.4 The south and east Table 4.5 of England region The south and east of England region

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option KLRE GRRA FLR3 RTRE CTRE BMM2 SEEU BNRC NTP1 SER1 CS53 GKEU MBHW BRRE PEM1 PEM2 RHM1 RHM2 NOA 47 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.4 The south and east Table 4.5 of England region The south and east of England region (continued)

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option SER2 CS51 NBRE ESC1 TKRE HBUP BFHW MBRE NOM1 NOM2 BTNO SCD1 WYTI BPRE SCD2 EAM1 EAM2 WAM1 NOA 48 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.4 The south and east Table 4.5 of England region The south and east of England region (continued)

Key: 2039

Optimum year indicator for 2038

Two Degrees 2037 Optimum year indicator for 2036

Optimal delivery date 2027 For more information on the 2026 reinforcements please navigate 2025

to Appendix C. 2024

2023

2022

2021 Hover over the option codes, at the bottom of the table 2020 for further information Option WAM2 WAM3 NEC1 THRE BFRE NOA 49 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

For the south and east of England region, we Of the 41 optimal options, 17 are critical and This means there is no need for single year identified 41 optimal options as shown in table could offer over a million different possible least regret analysis for these 12 options, as 4.5. Their optimum delivery dates are highlighted combinations of ‘Proceed’ and ‘Delay’ seen in table 4.6; progressing them to maintain in different colours for different scenarios. recommendations. The optimum delivery years their EISDs is the optimum course of action of the following options are the same as their under all scenarios. EISDs across all four scenarios.

Table 4.6 ‘Critical’ options to ‘proceed’ to maintain EISD in south and east England region Code Option description BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at Burwell Main BNRC Bolney and Ninfield additional reactive series compensation BRRE Reconductor remainder of Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh route BTNO A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford and Twinstead FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean circuit GRRA Grain running arrangement change KLRE Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits uprating NTP1 Power control device along North Tilbury RTRE Reconductor remainder of Rayleigh to Tilbury circuit SEEU Reactive series compensation protective switching scheme SER1 Elstree to Sundon reconductoring TKRE Tilbury to Grain and Tilbury to Kingsnorth upgrade NOA 50 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

This leaves 5 critical options and 32 different possible combinations of the following reinforcements. We performed the single year least regret analysis on all five combinations and the least regret strategy is to proceed with all critical options.

Table 4.7 ‘Critical’ options for least regret analysis in south and east England region Code Option description BPRE Reconductor the newly formed second Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Main circuit CS51 Commercial solution for East Anglia CS53 Commercial solution for the south coast MBHW Bramley to Melksham circuits thermal uprating SCD1 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 1 NOA 51 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.5 Background setting and context • KLRE and FLR3 reinforce two of the existing • HWUP, TWNC and ITUP work together to transmissions corridors bringing power from upgrade the transmission corridors across The south and east region includes East Anglia the south east coast into or around London. or though the north London area. Analysis and London, touches the Midlands and Both options benefit the south coast suggested that these reinforcements are not stretches along the south coast to Devon and boundaries when interconnectors are required as enough transmission capacity Cornwall. The region has a high concentration importing and are required early in the can be provided by a combination of other of power demand and generation, with high reinforcement paths. reinforcements, such as SCD1 and BTNO, demands in London and increased generation that are already included in the optimal paths. capacity in the Thames Estuary. The south coast • BTNO, a new double circuit in East Anglia, has several interconnectors that influence power supports the export of power out of the area and also reinforces the Midlands to south Furthermore, we considered two commercial flows in the region through the import and solutions in our assessment, one for the East export of power with Europe. boundary. BTNO is critical in all scenarios due to high exports from East Anglia. Anglia boundary (CS51) and one for the south coast boundaries (CS53). Offshore renewable generation is expected to • SCD1 and SCD2, that build offshore HVDC links between Suffolk and Kent and bypass grow in East Anglia and more interconnectors Commercial solutions use operational will be commissioned in the south coast and the most constrained areas. As the HVDC links can be configured to transfer power in measures from commercial providers to East Anglia. Combined with the increase in increase the volume of power that can be renewable generation in other parts of the both directions, they can benefit multiple south and east boundaries. SCD1 was optimal in all securely transferred across a boundary. country, we expect that the main driver of Although these are currently at an early constraints in the long term will be the north- the scenarios and SCD2 was needed in three of them. development stage, they provide economic to-south flows through the region, as well benefit. CS53 was required in the optimal as the flows across the East Anglia boundary. • SCN1, a new transmission route in the south paths of all four scenarios while CS51 was We have included our recommendation coast region, can increase the total flow of required in three of the four scenarios. and detailed narratives for each of the power across the south coast boundaries reinforcements in the optimal paths on under interconnector importing and exporting our interactive map. Highlights of our conditions. SCN1 was not included in the recommendations include: optimal paths in NOA 2019/20 as the alternative SCD1 was found to provide higher overall benefit. NOA 52 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

In conclusion, we recommend progressing with the following reinforcements in south and east England region: Table 4.8 Options to progress in south and east England region Code Option description To meet its EISD of: KLRE Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits uprating 2020 GRRA Grain running arrangement change 2020 FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean circuit 2020 RTRE Reconductor remainder of Rayleigh to Tilbury circuit 2021 BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at Burwell Main 2022 SEEU Reactive series compensation protective switching scheme 2022 BNRC Bolney and Ninfield additional reactive series compensation 2023 NTP1 Power control device along North Tilbury 2023 SER1 Elstree to Sundon reconductoring 2023 CS53 Commercial solution for the south coast 2023 MBHW Bramley to Melksham circuits thermal uprating 2023 BRRE Reconductor remainder of Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh route 2024 CS51 Commercial solution for East Anglia 2024 TKRE Tilbury to Grain and Tilbury to Kingsnorth upgrade 2026 BTNO A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford and Twinstead 2028 SCD1 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 1 2028 BPRE Reconductor the newly formed second Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Main circuit 2029 NOA 53 2019/20 4.3 The NOA outcomes

4.3.6 Eligibility assessment for onshore competition Following this, we conducted eligibility assessment for onshore competition for all reinforcements recommended to proceed this year in the south and east of England region. We identified two options that meet the competition criteria proposed by Ofgem: • A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford and Twinstead (BTNO). • New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 1 (SCD1). NOA 54 2019/20

Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley 4.4 Recommendations Stornoway Dunbeath Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly for each option Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld This section presents the recommendation Whistleﬁeld Redhouse Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Devol Easterhouse Kaimes Fallago Currie Smeaton for each option assessed in NOA 2019/20. Moor Coatbridge Livingston Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat In this section we highlight the options Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

To Northern Ireland Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig and their optimum delivery dates across the Gretna Blyth Arecleoch Kilgallioch Glenlee Dumfries Ecclefechan Auchencrosh Fourstones Newton Earlstoun Stewart Tynemouth Chapelcross Harker South Shields Stella West West Boldon Glenluce Tongland different scenarios. For a better understanding Offerton Hawthorn Pit Hartmoor Spennymoor Hartlepool of how we make our NOA recommendations Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Norton Robin Rigg Greystones Grangetown please refer to the flow diagram in section 4.2.3. Lackenby

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Quernmore Walney I II Heysham Osbaldwick Knaresborough West of Duddon Sands Middleton Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea The following section provides a visual West Kirkstall Poppleton Westermost Rough Skelton Creyke Beck Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Fryston Saltend North Hedon Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Elland Saltend South Eggborough Rochdale Ferrybridge representation of the options and their To Ireland Washway Keadby Humber Refinery Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Burbo Kirkby West Marsh South Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor West Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton recommendations. Use the menu at the bottom Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Rocksavage Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City North Hoyle Ferry Cottam Brinsworth Race Bank Dudgeon Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe Bodelwyddan Bridge Norton Lees Pentir Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs High Dinorwig Connah’s Quay of each page to select the recommendations Marnham Sheringham Shoal Staythorpe Lynn Legacy Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Ratcliffe you want to see or to quickly change region. Willington on Soar Trawsfynydd

Walpole Rugeley Drakelow East Anglia Spalding North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main As you hover over the options on the map the Bushbury Bridge Willenhall Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Hams Hall Ocker Hill Nechells Coventry table will highlight them helping to display the Oldbury Kitwell Berkswell

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton full results for that option. Options that have Socon Patford Bramford Bridge Greater Gabbard Sundon East Claydon Pelham Braintree received a recommendation of ‘Do not start’ Wymondley Leighton Rassau Buard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Walham Rye House Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Cowley Highbury Swansea North Watford Elstree London Array To Netherlands are not shown in the visualisation as we currently Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney Cilfynydd Culham Tottenham Redbridge Rayleigh Main Baglan Bay Mill Hill Warley Upper Boat Uskmouth Minety Didcot Willesden Margam Iron Acton Coryton Iver Kensal Green West Ham Whitson Barking Pyle Ealing Pudding St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain Wood Hurst West Thurrock Thanet Seabank Kentish Flats Wimbledon New Cross Northfleet Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth Tremorfa East do not see a future need for these reinforcements. Chessington Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Richborough East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown To Belgium Fleet Canterbury North Hinkley Point Sellindge To view these, and the full list of all the options West Sellindge Bridgwater Alverdiscot Bolney Taunton Nursling and their recommendations, navigate to table Dungeness Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Axminster Fawley Botley Wood A.1 and A.2 in Appendix A – ‘Economic Analysis’. Exeter Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph

NOA 2019/20 recommendations Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

To Northern Ireland Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig Gretna Blyth Arecleoch Kilgallioch Glenlee Dumfries Ecclefechan Auchencrosh Fourstones Newton Earlstoun Stewart Tynemouth Chapelcross Harker South Shields Stella West West Boldon Glenluce Tongland Offerton Hawthorn Pit Hartmoor Spennymoor Hartlepool Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Norton Robin Rigg Greystones Grangetown Lackenby

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Quernmore Walney I II Heysham Osbaldwick Knaresborough West of Duddon Sands Middleton Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Fryston Saltend North Hedon Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Elland Saltend South Eggborough Rochdale Ferrybridge To Ireland Washway Keadby Humber Refinery Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Burbo Kirkby West Marsh South Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor West Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Rocksavage Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City North Hoyle Ferry Cottam Brinsworth Race Bank Dudgeon Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe Bodelwyddan Bridge Norton Lees Pentir Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs High Dinorwig Connah’s Quay Marnham Sheringham Shoal Staythorpe Lynn Legacy Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Ratcliffe Willington on Soar Trawsfynydd

Walpole Rugeley Drakelow East Anglia Spalding North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main Bushbury Bridge Willenhall NOA Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby 55 2019/20 Hams Hall Ocker Hill South West Nechells Coventry Oldbury Kitwell Berkswell

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Patford Bramford Bridge Greater Gabbard Sundon East Claydon Pelham Braintree Wymondley Leighton Rassau Buard Bulls Lodge Greater Gabbard 2nd part (Galloper) Walham Rye House Rhigos Imperial Brimsdown Park Waltham Cross Gunfleet Sands I&II Cowley Highbury Swansea North Watford Elstree London Array To Netherlands Pembroke Amersham Main Hackney Cilfynydd Culham Tottenham Redbridge Rayleigh Main Baglan Bay Mill Hill Warley Upper Boat Uskmouth Minety Didcot Willesden Margam Iron Acton Coryton Iver Kensal Green West Ham Whitson Barking Pyle Ealing Pudding St Johns City Rd Mill Tilbury Grain Wood Hurst West Thurrock Thanet Seabank Kentish Flats Wimbledon New Cross Northfleet Tremorfa Laleham Littlebrook Kingsnorth East Singlewell Kemsley Cleve Hill Aberthaw Cardiff Melksham Chessington Richborough East Bramley West Weybridge Beddington Rowdown To Belgium Fleet Canterbury North Hinkley Point Sellindge West Sellindge Bridgwater Alverdiscot Bolney Taunton Nursling Dungeness Mannington Marchwood Lovedean Ninfield Axminster Fawley Botley Wood Exeter

Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph

Note: all reinforcement routes and locations are for illustrative purposes only

NOA 2019/20 recommendations Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Quernmore Walney I II Heysham Osbaldwick Knaresborough West of Duddon Sands Middleton Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Fryston Saltend North Hedon Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Elland Saltend South Eggborough Rochdale Ferrybridge To Ireland Washway Keadby Humber Refinery Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Burbo Kirkby West Marsh South Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor West Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Rocksavage Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City North Hoyle Ferry Cottam Brinsworth Race Bank Dudgeon Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe NOA Bodelwyddan Bridge Norton Lees Pentir Macclesfield Inner Dowsing 56 2019/20 Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs High Dinorwig Connah’s Quay South East Marnham Sheringham Shoal Staythorpe Lynn Legacy Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Ratcliffe Willington on Soar Trawsfynydd

Walpole Rugeley Drakelow East Anglia Spalding North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main Bushbury Bridge Willenhall Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Hams Hall Ocker Hill Nechells Coventry Oldbury Kitwell Berkswell

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Chickerell To France NOA 2019/20 recommendations Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

To Northern Ireland Markhill Kendoon Blackcraig Gretna Blyth Arecleoch Kilgallioch Glenlee Dumfries Ecclefechan Auchencrosh Fourstones Newton Earlstoun Stewart Tynemouth Chapelcross Harker South Shields Stella West West Boldon NOA Glenluce Tongland 57 2019/20 Offerton Midlands Hawthorn Pit Hartmoor Spennymoor Hartlepool Saltholme Tod Point Teesside Norton Robin Rigg Greystones Grangetown Lackenby

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

NOA 2019/20 recommendations Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath NOA Lochay Milton of Craigie 58 2019/20 Cashlie Lyndhurst Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig South Scotland & NorthCruachan England Glenagnes Dudhope Burghmuir St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Quernmore Walney I II Heysham Osbaldwick Note: all reinforcement routes and locations are for illustrative purposes only Knaresborough West of Duddon Sands Middleton Barrow Bradford Thornton Hornsea NOA 2019/20 recommendations West Kirkstall Skelton Poppleton Creyke Beck Westermost Rough Stanah Padiham Grange Monk Fryston Saltend North Hedon Penwortham Drax Humber Gateway Elland Saltend South Eggborough Rochdale Ferrybridge To Ireland Washway Keadby Humber Refinery Thorpe Farm Kearsley Whitegate Templeborough Killingholme Burbo Kirkby West Marsh South Bank III Carrington Stalybridge Melton Humber Grimsby West Gwynt y Mor Pitsmoor West Wylfa Rainhill South Stocksbridge Aldwarke Bank Birkenhead Manchester Winco Bank Burton Bredbury Neepsend Thurcroft Rhyl Flats Rocksavage Fiddlers Daines Sheffield City North Hoyle Ferry Cottam Brinsworth Race Bank Dudgeon Flintshire Frodsham Jordanthorpe Bodelwyddan Bridge Norton Lees Pentir Macclesfield Inner Dowsing Capenhurst Chesterfield Lincs High Dinorwig Connah’s Quay Marnham Sheringham Shoal Staythorpe Lynn Legacy Ffestiniog Cellarhead Stoke Bardolph Bicker Fen Ratcliffe Willington on Soar Trawsfynydd

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

NOA Lairg 59 2019/20 Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Scotland Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford

Fyrish Alness Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Nairn Blackhillock Aigas Kilmorack Inverness Dunvegan Peterhead Hywind Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Clyde (North) Note: all reinforcement routes and locations are for illustrative purposes only Ayr Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat NOA 2019/20 recommendations Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph Dounreay Thurso South

Spittal Mybster Beatrice Cassley Stornoway Dunbeath

Lairg

Brora Harris Loch Buidhe Shin Caithness Moray HVDC Grudie Bridge Mossford NOA Fyrish Alness 60 Corriemoillie Fraserburgh Luichart Orrin Elgin Macduff St. Fergus Ardmore 2019/20 Keith Deanie Culligran Dingwall Strichen Aigas Nairn Blackhillock HVDC Kilmorack Inverness Hywind Dunvegan Peterhead Beauly Knocknagael Fasnakylee Dyce Persley Kintore Glen Willowdale Broadford Morrison Tomatin Caennacroc Foyers Woodhill Clayhills Aberdeen Fort Augustus Boat of Quoich Garten Tarland Craigiebuckler Glendoe Redmoss Invergarry Fetteresso Kincardine Melgarve Kinlochleven Tummel Fiddes

Fort William Errochty Power Station Errochty Brechen Rannoch Clunie Tummel Bridge Tealing Dudhope Arbroath Lochay Cashlie Lyndhurst Milton of Craigie Taynuilt Killin Charleston Dalmally Finlarig Dudhope Cruachan Burghmuir Glenagnes St. Fillans Nant Clachan Inverarnan SCOTTISH HDRO-ELECTRIC Cupar Inveraray Sloy TRANSMISSION Glenrothes Leven Devonside Westﬁeld Redhouse Whistleﬁeld Kincardine Stirling Dunfemline Glenniston Denny Mossmorran Port Ann Longannet Inverkeithing Dunoon Helensburgh Bonnybridge Grangemouth Shrubhill Cockenie Dunbar Spango Cumbernald Telford Rd Portobelllo Bainsford Gorgie Crystal Rig Valley Strathleven Windyhill Broxburn Torness Erskine Lambhill Drumcross Whitehouse Bathgate Kaimes Devol Easterhouse Currie Fallago Coatbridge Livingston Smeaton Moor Newarthill Crossaig Hunterston Neilston Clydes Mill Black Law Extension NorthHunterston Strathaven Dunlaw Extension Berwick East Black Law Marshall Meadows Busby East Kilwinning Whitelee Wishaw Hunterston Kilmarnock Kilbride Saltcoats Town Whitelee Extn South Linnmill Eccles Meadowhead SP TRANSMISSION LTD Carradale Kilmarnock Galashiels South Coalburn Ayr Clyde (North) Coylton Clyde (South) Elvanfoot Hawick New Cumnock Maybole Moffat Black Hill Glenglass Auchenwynd Dun Hill Harestanes Hadyard Carsfad Ewe Hill

Western Hutton HVDC Walney Extension Link Ormonde

Note: all reinforcement routes and locations are for illustrative purposes only Walpole Rugeley Drakelow East Anglia Spalding North Scroby Sands Sutton Necton Ironbridge Ryhall Norwich Main Bushbury Bridge NOA 2019/20 recommendations Willenhall Shrewsbury Penn Bustleholm Enderby Hams Hall Ocker Hill Nechells Coventry Oldbury Kitwell Berkswell

Burwell Main Siewell Feckenham Grendon Bishops Wood Eaton Socon

Chickerell To France Rampion Langage Abham

Indian Queens Landulph NOA 61 2019/20 4.5 Offshore wider works

The Integrated Offshore Transmission Report, The NOA analysis found that SCD1 is optimal published in 2015, concluded that offshore in all four scenarios and critical in Two Degrees generation was unlikely to reach levels in the and Community Renewables. The analysis timescales required to make an integrated also showed that another option, a new offshore design approach beneficial. The ESO has HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 2 continued to monitor the background. The (SCD2), is optimal in three scenarios (Two Sector Deal includes a further target to install Degrees, Steady Progression and Community 50 GW of offshore wind by 2050, which is met Renewables) although critical in none. This in Two Degrees and almost met in Community showed the options perform well when studied Renewables, giving a renewed impetus for for boundary benefit alone, in other words offshore coordination. without adding the full benefits of integration. For NOA 2019/20, the ESO proposed a conceptual link between Kent and Suffolk for use in the NOA analysis. A TO developed a very similar proposal, a new offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 1 (SCD1). This option had the benefit of more accurate costing as well as detailed power system analysis. Given these factors, it was more suitable for the ESO to adapt the TO option and consider it as a proxy for offshore coordination. NOA 62 2019/20 5 Interconnector analysis > NOA for Interconnectors at a glance > 5.4 Outcome > 5.1 Introduction > 5.5 NOA IC, TYNDP and PCIs > 5.2 Interconnection theory > 5.6 Stakeholder feedback > 5.3 Methodology NOA 63 2019/20 NOA for Interconnectors at a glance

What is NOA for Interconnectors? What are the high-level results? The NOA for Interconnectors (NOA IC) • This year’s analysis identifies many potential is an assessment of how much interconnection opportunities for additional interconnection with GB would provide the most value to to create value for GB and Europe, both consumers and other interested parties. economically and environmentally. • Increased levels of interconnection bring How does it work? significant benefits to GB and European It evaluates the potential benefit of additional consumers, in terms of lower wholesale energy interconnection by considering three elements: prices and greater use of renewable power. • Social economic welfare – the benefit • A total interconnection capacity in the range to society. of 18.1 GW and 23.1 GW between GB and European markets by 2032 would provide • Constraint costs – the impact of the the maximum benefit for GB consumers. interconnector on the GB network. • This is between three and five times the • Capital expenditure costs – of both current level of operational GB interconnection the interconnector and any associated of 5 GW. network reinforcements. NOA IC calculates the optimal level of Optimal interconnection capacity for each interconnection by evaluating these three future energy scenario elements for a range of interconnector options from GB to seven European Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Steady Progression Two Degrees countries for each future energy scenario. 18.1 GW 23.1 GW 18.1 GW 23.1 GW NOA 64 2019/20 5.1 Introduction

Chapter 5 presents our latest What NOA IC can do: 5.1.2 NOA and NOA IC interconnection analysis. It highlights • provide a market and network assessment The NOA’s purpose is to recommend to the potential benefits of efficient levels of the optimal level of interconnection Transmission Owners across Britain which of interconnection capacity between GB capacity to GB projects to proceed with to meet the future and other markets. The analysis does • evaluate the social economic welfare, network requirements as defined within the not attempt to quantify the impact that is the overall benefit to society of Electricity Ten Year Statement. NOA IC uses of the UK’s future trading relationship a particular option, as well as constraint the output from NOA as the baseline network negotiations with the EU. The outcome costs and capital expenditure costs of reinforcement assumptions for the NOA IC of these negotiations may impact the both the interconnection capacity and analysis: this maximises consistency between future efficiency of interconnection and network reinforcements. the NOA and NOA IC. potentially impact investment in future interconnection projects as a result. What NOA IC cannot do: • assess the viability of current or future 5.1.1 The purpose of this analysis projects: the final insights are largely This analysis assesses the potential benefits independent of specific projects of interconnection under a range of scenarios. • provide any project-specific information. It outlines the socio-economic benefits of interconnection for consumers, generators and interconnector businesses. NOA 65 2019/20 5.1 Introduction Key NOA for Interconnector analysis highlights

Value 23.1 GW GB consumer The analysis demonstrates that There are many opportunities The analysis shows that a the GB consumer can benefit from for additional GB interconnection total interconnection capacity more interconnection projects to create value for GB and in the range of 18.1 GW and beyond those included within Europe, both economically and 23.1 GW between GB and Cap and Floor Window 2. environmentally. European markets by 2032 would provide the maximum benefit for GB consumers. FES 2019 Benefits While there are four optimal Increased levels of interconnection interconnector paths based on bring significant benefits to GB Renewable energy FES 2019, the analysis also shows and European consumers, both in Two Degrees and Community that many of the interconnector terms of lower wholesale energy Renewables, the two FES 2019 options not on the optimal paths prices and greater use of scenarios that meet the carbon also add value. renewable power. reduction target of an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, result in the highest levels of GB interconnection, because of the high benefits due to intermittent renewable energy. NOA 66 2019/20 5.1 Introduction

5.1.3 Improvements to this year’s analysis • Based on stakeholder feedback, we have not analysed the impact interconnectors may For this year’s analysis, we have undertaken have on other operational costs, specifically further improvements to the methodology ancillary services. Our stakeholders told us which were approved by Ofgem. NOA IC was not the best place for this type • We have continued to use the output from of analysis, which will instead be highlighted this year’s NOA as the baseline network in other ESO sources. See section 5.4.5 for reinforcement assumptions for the NOA IC more information. analysis: this provides greater consistency • We have used broadly the same iterative between the NOA and NOA IC analysis. method as last year. The studies involve a • We have focused on identifying the optimum step-by-step process, where the market is level of interconnection to GB-based social modelled with a base level of interconnection. economic welfare, capital costs and Like last year, there is no least worst regret reinforcement costs. We explain in more calculation to assign one single additional detail the results relating to the main iterative interconnection option across all four analysis, including showing how the annual scenarios. This results in four distinct optimal interconnector flows evolve over time. solutions, one for each FES. Our stakeholders told us a range of results is more useful than a single optimal solution. NOA 67 2019/20 5.2 Interconnection theory

Figure 5.1 Electricity interconnectors allow the transfer Benefits of interconnection of electricity between nations. Currently GB has ~5 GW of interconnection with other European markets; however, our 2019 future energy scenarios (FES) see an increase to between 12 GW in Consumer Evolution and 20 GW in Two Degrees by 2030. Increases in interconnection can deliver benefits to both industry and consumers. NOA 68 2019/20 5.2 Interconnection theory

Figure 5.2 Social economic welfare (SEW) is a common Social economic welfare indicator in cost-benefit analysis of projects of public interest. It captures the overall benefit, in monetary terms, to society from a given course of action. It is an aggregate of multiple parties’ benefits – so some groups within society may lose money because of the option taken. In this analysis, SEW captures the financial benefits and detriments of market participants due to increased interconnection. Consumer welfare Figure 5.2 shows how SEW is reached. The increase in SEW must also be balanced against the capital costs of delivering the Social increased interconnection capacity and any economic Producer welfare associated reinforcement costs. As capacity welfare is increased between two suitable markets and SEW delivered, prices between the two markets begin to converge until further Interconnector welfare interconnection brings no benefit. The interconnection capacity is optimised, having delivered maximum benefits. NOA 69 2019/20 5.3 Methodology

This section provides a high-level • The optimal paths are based on SEW for GB overview of the methodology used and the connecting country only. This makes within the NOA for Interconnectors the direct welfare benefits of the interconnector analysis, which we continue to develop more transparent and avoids any SEW using feedback from stakeholders. generated by flows between other countries. • We have continued to use the 5.3.1 Developments to methodology recommendations from this year’s NOA as the baseline network reinforcement This year, acting on stakeholders’ feedback, assumptions for the NOA IC analysis: we have focused our analysis on identifying this provides greater consistency between the optimal level of interconnection capacity the NOA and NOA IC analysis. for GB. The key highlights are: • We have continued to produce four optimal • The iterative process continues to focus on interconnection development paths: one for social economic welfare (SEW), capital costs each future energy scenario. Stakeholders and reinforcement costs. felt a range of results was more beneficial, due to the high levels of uncertainty regarding the future of the European energy market. NOA 70 2019/20 5.3 Methodology

5.3.2 Current and potential cycles, we had included projects within the operational GB interconnectors, those currently interconnection interconnector baseline against the criteria under construction and those listed on the of “regulatory certainty”. We received feedback interconnector register, this results in a figure As stated within the FES 2019, interconnection that using this criterion was inappropriate for of 21 GW: to achieve a credible baseline figure, capacity increases beyond current levels in several reasons, including that it excluded a scaling factor of 25 per cent was applied all four scenarios. Table 5.1 shows the current certain projects with project of common to projects under development (but not under and planned interconnection levels which interest (PCI) status and that the criteria construction). This results in a baseline have formed the basis for this study’s base of regulatory certainty was open to various interconnection level of 13.6 GW. Note that interconnection capacity. interpretations. We also received feedback the 25 per cent scaling factor should not be that a more appropriate methodology would interpreted as specific projects having a 1 in 4 It is important to note that the baseline level be to include a broader criterion for inclusion probability of completion: the scaling factor of interconnection capacity used as a starting of interconnectors and to apply an appropriate represents the scaling necessary to achieve point for the modelling should not be viewed scaling factor to ensure the baseline level of a reasonable baseline level of interconnection as NGESO attempting to forecast which interconnection facilitates a credible analysis. to commence the analysis from. projects currently under development will become operational. The baseline is not an For this year’s NOA IC we have used, as For this year’s analysis, we have continued to assessment of the likelihood of individual a starting point, all interconnector projects treat any Icelandic interconnection that appears projects progressing: it represents a credible currently operational, those under construction within the FES as a generator. The unique aggregation of projects currently under and those included on the NGESO properties of the Icelandic market, specifically development that can be used as a starting Interconnector Register. The interconnector the levels of renewable generation, result in point for the NOA IC analysis. It is possible that register lists all GB interconnector projects that a very low wholesale electricity price. Further not all projects currently under development have currently signed a connection agreement Icelandic interconnection was excluded from will progress to completion. Other new projects to connect to the GB electricity transmission the process. It can be seen from table 5.1 that may be developed and become operational. system. The interconnector register is a public if all the projects included within the base case domain document that is updated throughout do successfully connect on time, then this will NGESO received feedback as part of our the year. Nearly all interconnector projects to represent nearly a trebling in GB interconnection stakeholder engagement that we should review GB that have PCI status are included within the capacity over the next eight years. how we set the baseline level of interconnection interconnector register. If we add all existing capacity. For NOA IC 2018/19 and previous NOA 71 2019/20 5.3 Methodology

Table 5.1 We welcome stakeholders’ feedback on Current interconnection capacities and 2027 base case the revised interconnection baseline capacity calculation methodology. We will continue Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway Total to consult with our stakeholders to revise and improve the process. 2019 capacity 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 5 (GW) The selected method of arriving at a 2027 base case 1.7 0.7 5.8 0.7 1.3 1.3 2.2 13.6 recommendation for capacity development (GW) is an iterative optimisation for each future energy scenario. This approach attempts Figure 5.3 to maximise the present value, equal to SEW Iterative process for interconnection optimisation Hover over the numbers below to reveal more information less CAPEX less constraint costs. Figure 5.3 provides a high level overview of the process. Further details are available in the NOA report methodology. NOA 72 2019/20 5.3 Methodology

The 30 study cases are shown in table 5.2. The iterative process for each FES finishes reduced to 500 MW to analyse whether Additional interconnection is modelled to when it is deemed to have converged, that is there is any benefit of a further 500 MW connect in 2027, 2029 and 2032, to include when ‘None’ (the base case) is the option with of interconnection. the effects of varying commissioning dates the highest present value. Once this result is on SEW and constraint costs. achieved, the incremental capacity will be Table 5.2 Study cases, showing interconnector connecting country, zone and reinforcement options

Interconnected country GB connection zone Reinforcement on boundary Interconnected country GB connection zone Reinforcement on boundary

None (base) None None Germany 7 None Belgium 4 EC5 Ireland 1 None Belgium 4 None Ireland 1 B6+B8 Belgium 6 None Ireland 2 None Belgium 6 SC1+B15 Ireland 2 B8 Denmark 6 EC5 Ireland 3 None Denmark 6 None Ireland 3 SW1 Denmark 7 None Norway 1 None France 5 None Norway 1 B6+B8 France 5 SC1 Norway 2 None France 5 SC1+B15 Norway 2 B8 France 5 None The Netherlands 4 None France 5 SC1 The Netherlands 4 EC5 Germany 4 EC5 The Netherlands 6 None Germany 4 None The Netherlands 6 SC1+B15 NOA 73 2019/20 5.3 Methodology

Figure 5.4 5.3.3 Estimation of interconnection GB network high level zones, boundaries and interconnector options construction costs Norway Legend The cost of building interconnection capacity varies significantly between 7 GB connection zone different projects, with key drivers including boundary converter technology, cable length and Boundary capacity. The capital costs were derived Existing interconnector from a publicly-available ACER (Agency Additional interconnector within baseline for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) Interconnector options within the study cases document, based on surveys carried out B6 on European projects, and approximations of median possible cable lengths. Costs were converted to 2019/20 prices. 1 5.3.4 Estimation of network reinforcement costs B8 Ireland 2 We have divided the network into seven EC5 high-level zones, determined by areas of significant constraints on the network 4 The Netherlands or areas of high interconnection. SW1 3 7 6 5 Belgium Figure 5.4 highlights the GB connection SC1 B15 zones, boundaries and interconnectors included within the base case and options modelled within the study cases. France NOA 74 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

The market studies generated SEW for each • The results are not a forecast: many The number of iterations varied across the case. This section covers future interconnection other factors will influence the outcome future energy scenarios. The optimal level of that benefited the GB consumer and Europe. for interconnection over the next decade interconnection between GB and European The output is presented in four parts: and beyond. markets for each FES, including the baseline 1. Optimal interconnection range. • Variations in network constraint and level of interconnection of 13.6 GW, is shown 2. GB consumer benefit. construction costs will have a major impact in figure 5.5. 3. Interaction of interconnectors and constraints. on the attractiveness of projects. 4. Environmental implications. The starting interconnection capacities shown in table 5.1 include projects already in operation 5.4.1 Optimal interconnection range or under construction and other projects The final results show, for each FES, the markets currently under development, to which a scaling to connect to, whether reinforcement of the factor has been applied. This base case of GB network was necessary and in which years 13.6 GW represents a near trebling of current to connect to maximise SEW. It is important interconnection capacity, which causes to consider the results in the context of the considerable price convergence between GB methodology undertaken: and mainland Europe. As the SEW generated by • Projects to markets not in the optimal paths additional interconnection depends on the price may well be beneficial, but simply not the most differential between GB and European markets, beneficial based on the assumptions made the interconnectors that form the base case in this study. diminish the level of additional SEW further interconnection can bring. • The attractiveness of different markets varies across the scenarios. So there is uncertainty as to where the best opportunities lie, due to the uncertainty of future market conditions. NOA 75 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Figure 5.5 Optimal interconnection for each FES including the base case level

Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Steady Progression Two Degrees 18.1 GW 23.1 GW 18.1 GW 23.1 GW

The four optimal levels of interconnection shown 2019 scenarios achieve the decarbonisation Figure 5.6 shows the results in graphical format, in figure 5.5 give a range of between 18.1 GW target of an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse including the number of iterations, the and 23.1 GW of interconnection capacity across gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels cumulative level interconnection capacity, the the four FES. All four are higher than the and a key element is increased levels of offshore connecting country, whether any additional interconnection capacity within the FES 2019 wind generation compared to the 2018 reinforcement was associated with the option, scenarios, which have a range of between scenarios. Both Community Renewables the connecting zone and the connecting year for 12 GW and 20 GW. They have between 3.1 GW and Two Degrees include greater volumes each option. and 6.1 GW additional capacity over the FES of intermittent renewable generation across 2019 scenarios, driven by the potential for Europe, providing additional welfare additional value creation. opportunities for balancing renewable generation volumes. Last year’s NOA IC resulted in a range of between 18.4 GW and 21.4 GW. The longer The results show there is value for additional paths in this year’s analysis for the Community interconnection capacity over and above Renewables and Two Degrees scenarios are that included within Ofgem’s Cap and Floor the result of higher levels of welfare. Both the Window 2. Community Renewables and Two Degrees NOA 76 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Figure 5.6 Optimal interconnection paths for each FES Figure 5.6 shows the range of optimal level of interconnection across the different FES. This is to be expected, as scenarios such as Baseline: 13.6 GW Community Renewables and Two Degrees, with high levels of intermittent generation and significant differences in wholesale prices between markets, provide more opportunity Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Steady Progression Two Degrees for welfare from additional interconnection.

Belgium Zone 4 2032 Ireland Zone 1 2032 14.6 Norway Zone 2 2029 14.6 EC5 reinforcement 14.6 Norway Zone 1 2029 14.6

Netherlands Zone 4 2029 Germany Zone 4 2029 15.6 Ireland Zone 1 2032 15.6 EC5 reinforcement 15.6 Ireland Zone 1 2029 15.6

Belgium Zone 4 2029 16.6 Norway Zone 2 2032 16.6 Ireland Zone 1 2032 16.6 France Zone 6 2027 16.6

Belgium Zone 4 2032 Ireland Zone 3 2029 17.6 Norway Zone 2 2032 17.6 EC5 reinforcement 17.6 Netherlands Zone 4 2029 17.6

Netherlands Zone 4 2027 Norway Zone 1 2027 18.1 Ireland Zone 1 2027 18.6 EC5 reinforcement 18.1 Belgium Zone 6 2027 18.6

Belgium Zone 4 2032 EC5 reinforcement 19.6 France Zone 6 2027 19.6

Netherlands Zone 4 2029 EC5 reinforcement 20.6 Ireland Zone 1 2029 20.6

Germany Zone 4 2032 EC5 reinforcement 21.6 Germany Zone 4 2029 21.6

Norway Zone 2 2029 22.6 France Zone 6 2032 22.6

France Zone 6 2029 23.1 Germany Zone 4 2032 23.1 NOA 77 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Figure 5.7 presents the level of interconnection Figure 5.7 to each European market for the four Optimal level of interconnection to each European market optimal paths. 10

Figure 5.7 shows that each optimal path ) 9 for the four scenarios results in additional W G

interconnection to Belgium and Ireland. ( 8 y

The average Irish wholesale price is modelled, t i

as generally higher than GB, resulting in welfare c 7 a

generation opportunities. Also generating p 6 welfare is relieving Ireland’s synchronous c a

generation constraint, which imposes a limit n 5 o on the level of demand that can be met by i t

wind. These two factors mean British exports c 4 e

to Ireland exploit arbitrage and Irish exports n 3 n

to Britain avoid wind curtailment. o c

r 2 e t

n 1 I 0 Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway Current Base case Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Steady Progression Two Degrees NOA 78 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Three of the four optimal paths also show Figure 5.8 additional interconnection above the base Net present value of each winning study case for the optimal path for each FES case level to Germany, the Netherlands and Norway. These can be explained by looking 4 at the four optimal paths and the associated 3 net present values relative to the base case for each FES, shown in figure 5.8. 2 o n i l l Figure 5.8 shows the variation in length of i 1 B

optimal paths across the four FES and the £ 0 significant variations in net present value relative to the base case for each iteration. -1 It also shows the composition of each net present value (NPV), broken down by welfare, -2 CAPEX and constraints. Not surprisingly, CAPEX is always negative relative to the base case, but constraints can result in both savings and additional costs, depending on the study case. The chart highlights the longer optimal interconnection paths for the Community Renewables and Two Degrees scenarios, and the significantly higher levels of welfare It1: None-Ireland one 1 in 2032 It1: None-Ireland one 3 in 2029 It4: None-Ireland one 1 in 2032 It2: None-Ireland one 1 in 2027 It5: None-Ireland one 1 in 2032 It3: None-Ireland It2: None-Ireland one 1 in 2029 It2: None-Ireland one 1 in 2029 It7: None-Ireland It3: None-France one 6 in 2027 It6: None-France one 6 in 2027 It9: None-France one 6 in 2032 generated within those paths. It6: EC5-Belgium one 4 in 2032 It1: EC5-Belgium one 4 in 2032 It4: EC5-Belgium one 4 in 2032 It5: None-Norway one 1 in 2027 It1: None-Norway one 2 in 2029 It3: None-Norway one 2 in 2032 It4: None-Norway one 2 in 2032 It9: None-Norway one 2 in 2029 It1: None-Norway one 1 in 2029 It8: EC5-Germany one 4 in 2032 It3: None-Belgium one 4 in 2029 It5: None-Belgium one 6 in 2027 It10: None-France one 6 in 2029 It2: None-Germany one 4 in 2029 It8: None-Germany one 4 in 2029 It10: None-Germany one 4 in 2032 It7: EC5-Netherlands one 4 in 2029 It2: EC5-Netherlands one 4 in 2029 It5: EC5-Netherlands one 4 in 2029 It4: None-Netherlands one 4 in 2029 Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Steady Progression Two Degrees Capex Constraints Welfare NPV NOA 79 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

For interconnection to Norway, the relatively Only seven of the optimal solutions incorporate high CAPEX costs are more than offset by a boundary reinforcement, three in Community constraint savings and in the Community Renewables and four in Steady Progression. Renewables and Two Degrees scenarios, The low level of additional reinforcement is due significantly higher SEW benefits. Similarly, to using this year’s NOA recommendations for for interconnection to Germany, the additional network reinforcements, resulting in limited CAPEX costs are outweighed by the additional additional constraint savings from additional SEW increases, albeit lower than for Norway. interconnection and associated boundary For the Netherlands, the relatively low additional reinforcement. All reinforcements are for CAPEX costs are outweighed by a combination additional capability on the EC5 boundary, of SEW benefits and constraint savings. suggesting this boundary could benefit from additional reinforcement above the levels Figure 5.8 also shows how Community included within the FES 2019. The EC5 Renewables provides greater opportunities boundary represents electricity flows across for welfare creation driven by the price difference East Anglia, where significant levels of offshore between the GB and Norwegian markets, with wind are forecast to connect, which may the optimal solutions being interconnectors increase congestion on the boundary. to Norway for iterations 1, 3, 4 and 9. NOA 80 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

5.4.2 GB consumer benefit Figure 5.9 Annual imports and export flows The GB consumer gains from interconnection to cheaper wholesale electricity markets. Figure 5.9 shows annual imports and exports

s 100 for each of the optimal interconnection paths. t

o r 80 Figure 5.9 shows that, like last year, Two p m Degrees sees the highest levels of exports I 60

across interconnectors for all the FES. ) Levels of annual exports in Two Degrees and 40 Community Renewables are more than double T W h

( 20 those seen in Consumer Evolution and Steady s Progression. All four scenarios show increasing 0 o w levels of exports from 2027 as arbitrage l opportunities are exploited. Import flows remain F -20

broadly flat for all four scenarios, mostly in the s

range of 60 TWh to 80 TWh per year. t -40 o r Community Renewables and Two Degrees, p -60 the two scenarios that achieve the

E x -80 decarbonisation target of an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, achieve Years roughly a net balance of imports and exports Consumer Evolution import Consumer Evolution import Community Renewables import by the end of the forecast period, as high Community Renewables import Steady Progression import Steady Progression import volumes of renewable generation are traded Two Degrees import Two Degrees import across the interconnectors. NOA 81 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Figures 5.10 to 5.13 explore average annual Figure 5.10 Interconnection capacity, wholesale electricity prices and import and export flows wholesale prices for GB and the seven for the optimal path for Consumer Evolution European markets for the four FES. The prices are not demand weighted. They also show 25 60 W ) ) G h

the level of interconnection capacity as well (

20 y W as the annual import and export flows broken t 55 c i / M a £ ( p down by country. 15 e c a c

i r 50 p o n

i e 10 l

Consumer Evolution shows a gradual increase a e c t s n e l o in wholesale electricity prices across Europe, o n 45 h c 5 e r W

with only Ireland showing higher prices than t n GB. This drives high import flows across the I interconnectors, particularly from France and 0 40 Consumer Evolution 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Norway. The wholesale price differences allow Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Belgium Denmark France Germany arbitrage opportunities for imports to GB Ireland Netherlands Norway Ireland Netherlands Norway GB and drive increased welfare from additional

s 100 t

interconnection. Consumer Evolution shows o r 80 p m the lowest levels of interconnection export I 60

flows. For most of the study period, total ) 40 T W h

interconnector imports are roughly three times ( 20

s the level of exports, although there are still high 0 o w l levels of exports to France during periods of F -20

high renewable electricity generation within GB. s -40 t o r

p -60

E x -80 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway NOA 82 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Community Renewables shows a steady Figure 5.11 Interconnection capacity, wholesale electricity prices and import and export flows decline in GB and other European wholesale for the optimal path for Community Renewables prices driven by increasing levels of renewable generation. Annual wholesale prices for Norway 25 80 W ) ) G

h 70 and France are below GB, and Community (

20 y W Renewables sees the highest levels of imports t c i / M a

£ 60 ( p from Norway of all the scenarios, as well as 15 e c a c

i r 50

significant imports from France. But there are p o n

i e 10 l

also high levels of exports, particularly to France a e c t s

n 40 e l o and Ireland, when high levels of intermittent o n h c 5 e r W 30

renewable generation in GB drive down GB t n I prices and allow arbitrage opportunities for 0 increased exports and increased welfare from 20 Community Renewables 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 additional interconnection. Community Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Belgium Denmark France Germany Renewables shows the highest levels of Ireland Netherlands Norway Ireland Netherlands Norway GB imports of any of the scenarios, peaking at

s 100 t

nearly 80 TWh in 2035. By 2039 annual imports o r 80 p m and exports are roughly in balance, at between I 60

60 TWh and 70 TWhs. ) 40 T W h

( 20

s 0 o w l F -20

s -40 t o r

p -60

E x -80 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway NOA 83 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Steady Progression, like Consumer Evolution, Figure 5.12 Interconnection capacity, wholesale electricity prices and import and export flows shows GB wholesale prices to be higher than for the optimal path for Steady Progression other countries, apart from Ireland. This leads to high import flows across the interconnectors, 25 40 W ) ) G h

particularly from France, Norway and Belgium. (

20 y W Steady Progression shows the second t 35 c i / M a £ ( p lowest levels of exports. The relatively high 15 e c a c

i r 30

wholesale prices in Ireland lead to GB export p o n

i e 10 l

arbitrage opportunities. a e c t s n e l o o n 25 h c 5 e r W t n I 0 20 Steady Progression 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway Ireland Netherlands Norway GB

s 100 t

o r 80 p m I 60

) 40 T W h

( 20

s 0 o w l F -20

s -40 t o r

p -60

E x -80 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway NOA 84 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Two Degrees shows a significant decline Figure 5.13 Interconnection capacity, wholesale electricity prices and import and export flows in GB and other European wholesale prices, for the optimal path for Two Degrees driven by increasing levels of renewable generation. There are significant imports from 25 70 W ) ) G

h 60 both France and Norway (as the lower annual (

20 y W French and Norwegian prices would imply), but t c i / M a

£ 50 ( p also high levels of exports to France, Norway 15 e c a c

i r 40

and Ireland when high levels of intermittent p o n

i e 10 l

renewable generation in GB drive down our a e c t s

n 30 e l o prices and allow arbitrage opportunities for o n h c 5 e r W 20

renewable energy export. Figure 5.13 shows t n I that Two Degrees sees the highest levels of 0 exports across interconnectors of all the FES, 10 Two Degrees 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 slightly higher than Community Renewables. Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway Ireland Netherlands Norway GB

s 100 t

o r 80 p m I 60

) 40 T W h

( 20

s 0 o w l F -20

s -40 t o r

p -60

E x -80 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Years Belgium Denmark France Germany Ireland Netherlands Norway NOA 85 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

5.4.3 Interaction of interconnectors Flows across the GB network are from high and constraints levels of generation in the north to high levels of demand in the south. Interconnectors in The impact of interconnectors on GB constraints the north may help alleviate constraints when costs is dependent on the location of the exporting from GB and increase constraints interconnector and the level of onshore when importing. Conversely, interconnectors reinforcement built to accommodate it. in the south of England may reduce network constraints when importing and exacerbate Constraint costs are incurred when power constraints when exporting. within the merit order is limited due to network restrictions. In this event, the System Operator will incur balancing mechanism costs from generation not able to output and offer generation elsewhere on the system to alleviate the constraint. Interconnection to different markets provides the System Operator with another balancing option. Additional interconnection to GB may either help or hinder system balancing, as balancing mechanism costs increase or decrease as network boundaries are further strained or relieved. NOA 86 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

5.4.4 Environmental implications Figure 5.14 Annual CO2 emissions from generation for each scenario for base case and optimal path Increased levels of interconnection bring significant benefits to GB and European ) 35 2

consumers, not only in terms of lower O C

wholesale energy prices and greater use s 30 e n

of renewable power, but also in terms n o t of environmental benefits. 25 n o i l l i

Reduction in CO2 emissions m 20 (

Interconnectors can increase access to n o i

renewable power, resulting in reductions in s 15 s i

CO2. Interconnection allows surplus power m e

from renewable generation to be exported, 2 10 O C

rather than curtailed. Figure 5.14 shows the l a 5 annual CO2 emissions from generation for u n n

each scenario for the iteration one base case A and for the final iteration optimal path. 0 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Figure 5.14 shows that for Consumer Evolution Years and Steady Progression, the optimal paths CE it 1 base case CE it 5 optimal path CR it 1 base case (the dotted lines) show significantly lower CR it 10 optimal path SP it 1 base case SP it 5 optimal path levels of CO2 emissions, as cleaner renewable TD it 1 base case TD it 10 optimal path energy is imported into the UK. For the years 2027 to 2039, this results in 21.8 and The savings for Two Degrees and still achieve savings of 7.9 and 10.6 million 20.6 million tonnes less of CO2 emissions from Community Renewables are more modest, tonnes of CO2 respectively. All the reductions GB generation for Consumer Evolution and as these scenarios have a higher speed of equate to a 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent drop Steady Progression respectively. decarbonisation. However, their optimal paths over the study period. NOA 87 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

Reduction in Renewable Energy Supply (RES) Figure 5.15 Annual levels of RES curtailment for Community Renewables and Steady Progression for curtailment the base case and optimal paths Interconnection allows surplus power from renewable generation to be exported, rather 16 than curtailed. This may also replace more expensive fossil fuel generation, resulting 14 )

in a reduction in prices and reduced h 12 curtailment levels of RES. W T (

t 10 Figure 5.15 shows the annual levels of RES n curtailment for Community Renewables and e m l Steady Progression for the iteration one base i 8 a t

case and for the final iteration optimal path. r

u 6

Figure 5.15 shows that in the Community C Renewables scenario, which has over 100 GW S 4 of low carbon and renewable capacity by 2030, R E levels of RES curtailment are significantly higher 2 than in Steady Progression scenario, which has only 76 GW of low carbon and renewable 0 energy capacity. For both scenarios, in the 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 optimal paths, that is the paths with the optimal Years level of additional GB interconnection, the levels of RES curtailment are lower, with Community CR it 1 base case CR it 10 optimal path Renewables resulting in roughly 14 TWh less SP it 1 base case SP it 5 optimal path RES curtailment and Steady Progression 6 TWh over the period 2027 to 2039. NOA 88 2019/20 5.4 Outcome

5.4.5 System operability analysis We will be incorporating the interconnector system operability analysis within our System Last year, for the first time within the Operability Framework, which we believe NOA IC analysis, we explored the impact is a more logical fit. Our latest Operational interconnectors may have on the ESO’s Strategy Report explains the future challenges requirements for system operability. in maintaining an operable electricity system. This year we have decided not to include The report provides a list of reports we will this. Stakeholders told us that they felt the produce during 2020 covering a wide range analysis was not a good fit and that any of operability issues and challenges. Many of attempt at quantifying system operability these will cover the impact of interconnection requirements should have a broader scope, on system operability, but the Trends and rather than focusing on the potential benefits Insights report, to be published in February that interconnectors may provide. Another 2020, will provide commentary on the operability point was that analysing the impact impact of the latest FES scenarios, and will interconnectors may have on system operability include an update to the system operability is complex, and requires a deeper analysis than analysis included within last year’s NOA IC. was feasible within the NOA IC framework. NOA 89 2019/20 5.5 NOA IC, TYNDP and PCIs

The NOA for Interconnectors analysis uses projects. The PCI process is led by the not identify the relative economic benefits the FES 2019, so, the assumptions within European Commission, and for a project of specific interconnector projects currently these scenarios play an important role in to qualify for PCI status it must be included under development. NOA IC does not attempt determining its results. The European Network within the latest TYNDP, impact at least two to pick ‘winners and losers’. The current for Transmission System Operators for EU Member States, enhance market NOA IC baseline interconnection methodology Electricity (ENTSO-E) also undertakes integration, increase competition, enhance includes all projects currently on the a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of European security of supply and contribute to the EU’s interconnector register, many of which have interconnector projects1, assessing amongst sustainability objective. PCI projects benefit PCI status, with a scaling factor applied to other things socio-economic welfare and CO2 from advantages including streamlined permit achieve a baseline interconnection level for emissions. This forms part of the Ten Year granting procedures and being eligible for meaningful analysis. We believe this approach Network Development Plan (TYNDP) process, funding from the Connecting Europe Facility, is equitable and fair. which includes a suite of scenarios. Like the the EU’s 30 billion euro fund for boosting FES, the TYNDP scenarios are developed with energy, transport and digital infrastructure. stakeholder engagement and aim to reduce PCIs can also apply for support from other emissions to meet the 2050 EU targets. EU programmes, including the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The TYNDP is a two-year process that includes scenarios highlighting how the European The TYNDP includes an assessment of each power system may develop over the next interconnector project and the requirements two decades. Each project is assessed for additional interconnection at a regional using the pan-European CBA methodology. level. Many of the interconnector projects This methodology sets out the criteria for within the TYNDP have PCI status. To include the assessment of costs and benefits of all interconnector projects currently with PCI transmission and storage projects, all of status at full capacity within the interconnector which stem from European policies on market baseline for NOA IC would give a total integration, security of supply and sustainability. interconnection capacity figure too high for any 1 The findings of the CBAs on interconnectors undertaken as part of Projects of common interest (PCIs) are selected meaningful analysis. In addition, NOA IC is an ENTSO-E’s 2018 Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) from the TYNDP list of transmission and storage economic market and network study that does package are available here. NOA 90 2019/20 5.6 Stakeholder feedback Have your say

We continue to rely on stakeholder We will continue to develop our analysis feedback to develop the NOA for to provide more value to our stakeholders Interconnectors methodology. We want in next year’s report. What additional to hear your views on this year’s analysis. improvements would you like to see? Do you believe the developments we How else can we add more value? implemented this year, such as the revised interconnector baseline capacity, have We need you to help shape next year’s been beneficial? methodology, we look forward to your involvement in 2020. You can send us your thoughts at [email protected].

Have your say NOA 91 2019/20 6 Stakeholder engagement > 6.1 Introduction and continuous development > 6.2 Stakeholder engagement NOA 92 2019/20 6.1 Introduction and continuous development

Your feedback on the NOA publication The NOA annual review process will help us From NOA 2018/19, we took on board your helps us improve the report year-on-year. develop the publication and we encourage views and incorporated improvements and Our 2020 stakeholder engagement all interested parties to get involved to help changes to this year’s report. programme, which runs from when the us improve the publication every year. • We have made changes to the chapter NOA is published until May, is a great structure. Last year’s Chapter 3 – opportunity for you to give your views. As mentioned in Chapter 1, we published a ‘Boundary descriptions’ has now been long-term roadmap for network development removed and a more concise boundary Your feedback is important for us to continue in 2018 with a plan to deliver further value from description incorporated. developing and improving the NOA and the the NOA. We envisage that the findings in those • We have given the report a refreshing new ETYS. And because the two documents are additional areas will be included in our future look and an improved reader experience closely related, we’ll make sure the way we NOA publications, as part of the main NOA with more interactivity and visual aids, such communicate and consult with you reflects this. report and/or as separate documents. We will as the first-time inclusion of a map interface We’ll make sure that the NOA publication share the outcomes and seek opportunities to to Chapter 4 – ‘Investment recommendations’. continues to add value by: work with a wider range of industry participants This map provides more clarity on the to shape our future NOA. • collating and understanding your views investment recommendation. We would and opinions really appreciate your thoughts on the If you would like to get involved, please visit new experience. • providing opportunities for constructive debate our Network Development Roadmap web throughout the process page for more information, or email us directly • We’ve made progress in our pathfinding • creating open and two-way communication to at networkdevelopment.roadmap@ projects since the previous NOA and we discuss assumptions, drivers and outputs; and nationalgrideso.com talk about this in the ‘What’s new?’ section in Chapter 1 – ‘Introduction’. We’d like to • telling you how your views have been know your views on the development of used and reporting back on the these projects. engagement process. NOA 93 2019/20 6.2 Stakeholder engagement

Figure 6.1 We are always happy to listen Now the NOA is published, we’ll ETYS/NOA stakeholder activities programme to your views: start the review process and look • at consultation events, such forward to having conversations Stakeholder comments as our customer seminars with you between now and June (end of January to early May) • through responses to 2020. This consultation will cover [email protected] the NOA methodology and the look of the report, as well as its • at bilateral stakeholder contents. Because some parts The NOA meetings; and of the NOA process start in May, 2019/20 report Internal ETYS 2020 • through any other means we have already started on some published review published convenient for you of the methodology’s higher-level • you can also connect with aspirations. us through social media. Figure 6.1 shows our stakeholder Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov activities programme and outlines our licence obligation dates. FES 2020 NOA report nationalgrideso Your feedback is important to us, published methodology to Ofgem and we urge you to get involved. With your early engagement, we can make sure your views are captured even before the formal consultation process begins.

nationalgrideso.com NOA 94 2019/20 7 Appendices > Appendix A – Economic analysis results > Appendix B – SWW projects > Appendix C – List of options > Appendix D – Meet the NOA team > Appendix E – Glossary > Appendix F – Further information NOA 95 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.1 Tables A.1–2 present the results from our Scotland and the north of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation could be an SWW. We also include cost bands BBNC Beauly to Blackhillock 400 kV double circuit addition Not featured Do not start BLN2 Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275 kV reinforcement Not featured Do not start for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation CBEU Creyke Beck to Keadby advance rating Hold Hold that satisfy the competition criteria. These CDHW Cellarhead to Drakelow circuits thermal uprating Not featured Hold options and their cost bands are highlighted NOR4 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick number 2 400 kV circuit Hold Hold in orange. CDP1 Power control device along Cellarhead to Drakelow Not featured Delay CDP2 Power control device along Cellarhead to Drakelow Not featured Hold The NOA recommendations are based on our CDP3 Alternative power control device along Cellarhead to Drakelow Not featured Do not start economic assessment of options to deliver CDP4 Alternative power control device along Cellarhead to Drakelow Not featured Hold CDRE Cellarhead to Drakelow reconductoring Proceed Stop boundary benefits. Some options assessed CGNC A new 400 kV double circuit between Creyke Beck and the South Not featured Proceed may be listed as enabling works in users’ Humber (cost band: [£100 million – £500 million]) connection agreements. This may be for CKPC Power control device along Creyke Beck to Keadby to Killingholme Not featured Hold a number of reasons. An option not receiving CRPC Power control device along Cottam to Ryhall Not featured Hold a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be CS34 Commercial solution for the north of Scotland Not featured Do not start proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other CS35 Commercial solution for Scotland and the north of England Not featured Proceed reasons than delivering boundary benefits. CTP1 Power control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton Not featured Do not start CTP2 Alternative power control device along Creyke Beck to Thornton Not featured Proceed CWPC Power control device along Cottam to West Burton Not featured Hold DEPC Power control device along Drax to Eggborough Not featured Hold DLUP Uprate the Windyhill to Lambhill to Denny North 275 kV circuit to 400 kV Not featured Do not start DNEU Denny North 400/275 kV second supergrid transformer Hold Hold DREU Generator circuit breaker replacement to allow Thornton to run Do not start Do not start a two-way split DWN2 Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement Not featured Do not start DWNO Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement Proceed Proceed DWUP Establish Denny North to Clydesmill to Wishaw single 400 kV circuit from Not featured Do not start existing 275 kV circuits NOA 96 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.1 (continued) Tables A.1–2 present the results from our Scotland and the north of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation E2D2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Cottam offshore HVDC Y Do not start Proceed could be an SWW. We also include cost bands (cost band [£2,000 million – £2,500 million]) for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation E2D3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Drax offshore HVDC Do not start Do not start that satisfy the competition criteria. These E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Hawthorn Pit (cost band: Y Proceed Proceed options and their cost bands are highlighted [£1,500 million – £2,000 million]) in orange. E2L2 Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Cottam with metallic return Not featured Do not start E2L3 Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Drax with metallic return Not featured Do not start E2LC Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness to Hawthorn Pit with Not featured Do not start The NOA recommendations are based on our metallic return economic assessment of options to deliver E4D2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Cottam offshore HVDC Do not start Do not start boundary benefits. Some options assessed E4D3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC Y Proceed Proceed (cost band: [£2,000 million – £2,500 million]) may be listed as enabling works in users’ E4DC Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit offshore Stop Stop connection agreements. This may be for HVDC a number of reasons. An option not receiving E4L2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Cottam offshore HVDC Not featured Do not start a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be E4L3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC Not featured Do not start proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other E4L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Peterhead to the South Humber Y Not featured Proceed offshore HVDC (cost band: [£3,500 million – £4,000 million]) reasons than delivering boundary benefits. E4LC Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit offshore Not featured Do not start HVDC E5L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Blackhillock to the South Humber Not featured Do not start offshore HVDC E6L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Tealing to the South Humber Not featured Do not start offshore HVDC ECU2 East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (cost band: [£100 million – Y Proceed Proceed £500 million]) ECUP East coast onshore 400 kV incremental reinforcement Y Proceed Proceed ECVC Eccles synchronous series compensation and real-time rating system Hold Proceed EHRE Elvanfoot to Harker reconductoring Hold Stop NOA 97 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.1 (continued) Tables A.1–2 present the results from our Scotland and the north of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation could be an SWW. We also include cost bands FBRE Beauly to Fyrish 275 kV double circuit reconductoring Do not start Do not start FINS East coast 132 kV upgrade Not featured Do not start for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation GCNC A new 400 kV double circuit between South Humber and West Not featured Do not start that satisfy the competition criteria. These Lincolnshire options and their cost bands are highlighted GWNC A new 400 kV double circuit between South Humber and South Not featured Proceed in orange. Lincolnshire (cost band: [£100 million – £500 million]) HAE2 Harker supergrid transformer 5 replacement Proceed Proceed HAEU Harker supergrid transformer 6 replacement Proceed Proceed The NOA recommendations are based on our HFRE Reconductor Harker to Fourstones double circuit Not featured Do not start economic assessment of options to deliver HNNO Hunterston East to Neilston 400 kV reinforcement Proceed Proceed boundary benefits. Some options assessed HSP1 Power control device along Fourstones to Harker to Stella West Not featured Proceed may be listed as enabling works in users’ HSP2 Power control device along Fourstones to Harker to Stella West Not featured Do not start connection agreements. This may be for HSR1 Reconductor Harker to Stella West Not featured Hold a number of reasons. An option not receiving KBRE Knocknagael to Blackhillock 275 kV double circuit reconductoring Hold Stop a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be KWHW Keadby to West Burton circuits thermal uprating Hold Hold KWPC Power control device along Keadby to West Burton Not featured Hold proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other LBRE Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275 kV double circuit overhead line Not featured Hold reasons than delivering boundary benefits. reconductoring LCUP Uprating of Longannet to 400 kV operation, installation of new 400 kV Not featured Do not start substation between Wishaw and Torness, and uprate existing 275 kV circuit to 400 kV LNP1 Power control device along Lackenby to Norton Not featured Do not start LNPC Power control device along Lackenby to Norton Not featured Proceed LNRE Reconductor Lackenby to Norton single 400 kV circuit Proceed Hold MHPC Power control device along Harker to Gretna and Harker to Moffat Not featured Do not start MRP1 Power control device along Penwortham to Washway Farm to Kirkby Not featured Do not start MRPC Power control device along Penwortham to Kirkby Not featured Proceed NEMS 225 MVAr MSCs within the north east region Proceed Hold NOA 98 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.1 (continued) Tables A.1–2 present the results from our Scotland and the north of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation could be an SWW. We also include cost bands NEP1 Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth to Blyth to South Shields Not featured Proceed NEPC Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth and Blyth to South Shields Not featured Hold for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation NOPC Power control device along Norton to Osbaldwick Not featured Hold that satisfy the competition criteria. These NOR1 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick 400 kV double circuit Hold Stop options and their cost bands are highlighted NOR2 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick number 1 400 kV circuit Hold Proceed in orange. OENO Central Yorkshire reinforcement Proceed Stop OPN1 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton Not featured Do not start The NOA recommendations are based on our and relevant 400 kV upgrades OPN2 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton Not featured Proceed economic assessment of options to deliver and relevant 275 kV upgrades boundary benefits. Some options assessed OPN3 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton Not featured Do not start may be listed as enabling works in users’ using cable and relevant 400 kV upgrades OPN4 A new 400 kV double circuit between Osbaldwick and Poppleton Not featured Do not start connection agreements. This may be for using cable and relevant 275 kV upgrades a number of reasons. An option not receiving PWMS Two 225 MVAr MSCs at Penwortham Not featured Hold a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be SHNS Upgrade substation in the South Humber area Not featured Proceed proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other TDH1 Drax to Thornton 2 circuit thermal uprating and equipment upgrade Not featured Hold reasons than delivering boundary benefits. TDH2 Drax to Thornton 1 circuit thermal uprating and equipment upgrade Not featured Hold TDP2 Additional power control device along Drax to Thornton Not featured Hold TDPC Power control device along Drax to Thornton Not featured Hold THS1 Install series reactors at Thornton Proceed Proceed TKUP East coast onshore 400 kV phase 2 reinforcement Not featured Do not start TLNO Torness to north east England AC onshore reinforcement (cost band: Y Do not start Proceed [£500 million – £1,000 million]) TUEU Tummel reconfiguration Not featured Do not start TURC Tummel reactive series compensation Hold Stop WHTI Turn-in of West Boldon to Hartlepool circuit at Hawthorn Pit Proceed Proceed WLTI Windyhill to Lambhill to Longannet 275 kV circuit turn-in to Denny North Hold Delay 275 kV substation NOA 99 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.2 Tables A.1–2 present the results from our South and east of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation could be an SWW. We also include cost bands BBP1 Power control device along Bramford to Braintree Not featured Do not start BFEU Thermal upgrade for Bramley and Fleet 400 kV substation Not featured Do not start for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation BFHW Bramley to Fleet circuits thermal uprating Hold Hold that satisfy the competition criteria. These BFRE Bramley to Fleet reconductoring Do not start Hold options and their cost bands are highlighted BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at Burwell Main Proceed Proceed in orange. BNRC Bolney and Ninfield additional reactive series compensation Proceed Proceed BPP1 Power control device along Bramford to Pelham Not featured Do not start The NOA recommendations are based on our BPP2 Power control device along Braintree to Pelham Not featured Do not start BPRE Reconductor the newly formed second Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Hold Proceed economic assessment of options to deliver Main circuit boundary benefits. Some options assessed BRRE Reconductor remainder of Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh route Hold Proceed may be listed as enabling works in users’ BTNO A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford and Twinstead Proceed Proceed connection agreements. This may be for (cost band: [£100 million – £500 million]) a number of reasons. An option not receiving BWRE Reconductor Barking to West Ham double circuit Not featured Do not start a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be CKNC New 400 kV transmission route in Kent area Not featured Do not start CS51 Commercial solution for East Anglia Not featured Proceed proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other CS53 Commercial solution for the south coast Not featured Proceed reasons than delivering boundary benefits. CTRE Reconductor remainder of Coryton South to Tilbury circuit Hold Hold EAM1 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon Not featured Hold EAM2 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon Not featured Hold ESC1 Second Elstree to St John’s Wood 400 kV circuit Hold Hold FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean circuit Not featured Proceed GKEU Thermal upgrade for Grain and Kingsnorth 400 kV substation Hold Hold GKPC Power control device along Grain to Kingsnorth Not featured Do not start GRRA Grain running arrangement change Hold Proceed HBUP Uprate Bridgewater to 400 kV and reconductor the route to Hinkley Not featured Hold HWUP Uprate Hackney, Tottenham and Waltham Cross 275 kV to 400 kV Hold Stop ITUP Uprate Iver to Tilbury route from 275 kV to 400 kV Not featured Do not start NOA 100 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

Table A.2 (continued) Tables A.1–2 present the results from our South and east of England region cost-benefit analysis. The results present the recommendations from last year’s NOA for Option Option description Potential NOA 2018/19 NOA 2019/20 comparison and to indicate whether an option code SWW? recommendation recommendation could be an SWW. We also include cost bands KLRE Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits uprating Proceed Proceed MBHW Bramley to Melksham circuits thermal uprating Not featured Proceed for options with a ‘Proceed’ recommendation MBRE Bramley to Melksham reconductoring Hold Hold that satisfy the competition criteria. These NBRE Reconductor Bramford to Norwich double circuit Hold Hold options and their cost bands are highlighted NEC1 Cable replacement at Necton 400 kV substation Not featured Hold in orange. NOM1 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich Not featured Hold NOM2 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich Not featured Hold The NOA recommendations are based on our NTP1 Power control device along North Tilbury Not featured Proceed economic assessment of options to deliver PEM1 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham Do not start Hold PEM2 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham Do not start Hold boundary benefits. Some options assessed RHM1 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House Do not start Hold may be listed as enabling works in users’ RHM2 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House Do not start Hold connection agreements. This may be for RTRE Reconductor remainder of Rayleigh to Tilbury circuit Proceed Proceed a number of reasons. An option not receiving SCD1 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 1 (cost band: Y Not featured Proceed a ‘Proceed’ recommendation could still be [£500 million – £1,000 million]) proceeded by the TO(s) if required for other SCD2 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk and Kent Option 2 Not featured Hold SCN1 New 400 kV transmission route between south London and Proceed Stop reasons than delivering boundary benefits. the south coast SEEU Reactive series compensation protective switching scheme Proceed Proceed SER1 Elstree to Sundon reconductoring Delay Proceed SER2 Elstree to Sundon 2 circuit turn-in and reconductoring Hold Hold THRE Reconductor Hinkley Point to Taunton double circuit Hold Hold TKRE Tilbury to Grain and Tilbury to Kingsnorth upgrade Stop Proceed TWNC Uprate Tilbury to Waltham Cross route from 275 kV to 400 kV and new Not featured Do not start 400 kV transmission route in Hertfordshire area TMEU Thorpe Marsh substation reconfiguration Not featured Do not start WAM1 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole Not featured Hold NOA 101 2019/20 Appendix A Economic analysis results

South West – Proceed South East – Hold Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression BNRC Bolney and Ninfield additional reactive 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 CTRE Reconductor remainder of Coryton South 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 series compensation to Tilbury circuit FLR3 Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean circuit 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 EAM1 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon 2023 2031 2031 2031 2031 MBHW Bramley to Melksham circuits thermal uprating 2023 2025 2023 2026 2026 EAM2 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon 2023 2031 2031 2031 2031 SEEU Reactive series compensation protective 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 ESC1 Second Elstree to St John’s Wood 2024 2026 2026 2026 2026 switching scheme 400 kV circuit GKEU Thermal upgrade for Grain and Kingsnorth 2022 2023 2029 2026 2026 400 kV substation South West – Hold NBRE Reconductor Bramford to Norwich 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady double circuit code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression NEC1 Cable replacement at Necton 400 kV substation 2024 2031 N/A N/A N/A BFHW Bramley to Fleet circuits thermal uprating 2022 2028 2026 2026 2028 NOM1 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich 2023 2028 2028 2028 2028 BFRE Bramley to Fleet reconductoring 2024 2033 2031 N/A N/A NOM2 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich 2023 2028 2028 2028 2028 HBUP Uprate Bridgewater to 400 kV and reconductor 2024 2026 2026 2026 2026 PEM1 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 the route to Hinkley PEM2 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 MBRE Bramley to Melksham reconductoring 2024 2026 2028 2028 2027 RHM1 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 THRE Reconductor Hinkley Point 2024 2033 2031 N/A N/A RHM2 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 to Taunton double circuit SCD2 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk 2029 2030 2032 N/A 2035 and Kent Option 2 South East – Proceed SER2 Elstree to Sundon 2 circuit turn-in 2023 2024 2026 2024 2024 and reconductoring Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady WAM1 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole 2023 2031 N/A N/A N/A code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression WAM2 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole 2023 2031 N/A N/A N/A BMM2 225 MVAr MSCs at Burwell Main 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 WAM3 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole 2023 2031 N/A N/A N/A BPRE Reconductor the newly formed second Bramford 2029 2029 2029 2039 2029 WYTI Wymondley turn-in 2022 2029 2031 2028 N/A to Braintree to Rayleigh Main circuit BRRE Reconductor remainder of Bramford to Braintree 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 to Rayleigh route South East – Stop BTNO A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady and Twinstead code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression CS51 Commercial solution for East Anglia 2024 2024 2027 N/A 2033 HWUP Uprate Hackney, Tottenham and Waltham Cross 2026 N/A N/A N/A N/A CS53 Commercial solution for the south coast 2023 2023 2024 2023 2023 275 kV to 400 kV GRRA Grain running arrangement change 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 SCN1 New 400 kV transmission route between south 2029 N/A N/A N/A N/A KLRE Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits uprating 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 London and the south coast NTP1 Power control device along North Tilbury 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 WYQB Wymondley quad boosters 2023 N/A N/A N/A N/A RTRE Reconductor remainder of Rayleigh 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 to Tilbury circuit SCD1 New offshore HVDC link between Suffolk 2028 2028 2028 2029 2034 and Kent Option 1 SER1 Elstree to Sundon reconductoring 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 TKRE Tilbury to Grain and Tilbury 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 to Kingsnorth upgrade NOA 103 2019/20 Appendix A Interactive map tables

Midlands – Proceed Midlands – Hold Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression CGNC A new 400 kV double circuit between 2031 2031 2031 2031 N/A CBEU Creyke Beck to Keadby advance rating 2022 2024 2024 2024 2023 Creyke Beck and the South Humber CDHW Cellarhead to Drakelow circuits 2022 2028 2028 2029 2024 CTP2 Alternative power control device along Creyke 2024 2024 2029 2029 2027 thermal uprating Beck to Thornton CDP2 Power control device along Cellarhead 2023 2028 2028 2029 2027 GWNC A new 400 kV double circuit between 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 to Drakelow South Humber and South Lincolnshire CDP4 Alternative power control device along 2023 2031 2031 2031 N/A MRPC Power control device along Penwortham to 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Cellarhead to Drakelow Kirkby CKPC Power control device along Creyke Beck 2023 2024 2026 2027 2027 NOR2 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick 2022 2022 2022 2023 2022 to Keadby to Killingholme number 1 400 kV circuit CRPC Power control device along Cottam to Ryhall 2023 2031 2031 N/A N/A OPN2 A new 400 kV double circuit between 2027 2028 2028 2027 2027 CWPC Power control device along Cottam to 2023 2029 2029 2029 2031 Osbaldwick and Poppleton and relevant West Burton 275 kV upgrades DEPC Power control device along Drax 2023 N/A N/A 2029 2031 SHNS Upgrade substation in the South Humber area 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 to Eggborough THS1 Install series reactors at Thornton 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 KWHW Keadby to West Burton circuits 2022 2028 2028 2029 2027 thermal uprating KWPC Power control device along Keadby 2023 2024 2026 2027 2026 Midlands – Delay to West Burton Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady NOPC Power control device along Norton 2023 N/A N/A 2029 N/A code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression to Osbaldwick CDP1 Power control device along Cellarhead 2023 2023 2028 2027 2027 NOR4 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick 2022 2028 2028 2029 2028 to Drakelow number 2 400 kV circuit PWMS Two 225 MVAr MSCs at Penwortham 2023 2028 2028 2029 2028 TDH1 Drax to Thornton 2 circuit thermal uprating and 2022 2026 2026 2027 2027 equipment upgrade TDH2 Drax to Thornton 1 circuit thermal uprating and 2022 2024 2024 2024 2023 equipment upgrade TDP2 Additional power control device along Drax to 2023 2026 2026 2027 2027 Thornton TDPC Power control device along Drax to Thornton 2023 2026 2026 2026 2026

Midlands – Stop Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression CDRE Cellarhead to Drakelow reconductoring 2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A NOR1 Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Osbaldwick 2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A 400 kV double circuit OENO Central Yorkshire reinforcement 2028 N/A N/A N/A N/A NOA 104 2019/20 Appendix A Interactive map tables

South Scotland & North England – Proceed Scotland – Proceed Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression ECVC Eccles synchronous series compensation and 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 CS35 Commercial solution for Scotland and the north 2023 2023 2023 2024 2023 real-time rating system of England HAE2 Harker supergrid transformer 5 replacement 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 DWNO Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement 2028 2028 2028 2028 2028 HAEU Harker supergrid transformer 6 replacement 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 ECU2 East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 HSP1 Power control device along Fourstones 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 ECUP East coast onshore 400 kV incremental 2026 2026 2026 2026 2026 to Harker to Stella West reinforcement LNPC Power control device along Lackenby 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 HNNO Hunterston East to Neilston 400 kV reinforcement 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 to Norton NEP1 Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth 2024 2024 N/A 2024 2024 to Blyth to South Shields Scotland – Delay TLNO Torness to north east England AC onshore 2036 2036 2036 2036 N/A Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady reinforcement code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression WHTI Turn-in of West Boldon to Hartlepool circuit at 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 WLTI Windyhill to Lambhill to Longannet 275 kV circuit 2021 2023 2021 2023 2022 Hawthorn Pit turn-in to Denny North 275 kV substation

South Scotland & North England – Hold Scotland – Hold Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression HSR1 Reconductor Harker to Stella West 2024 N/A N/A 2036 N/A DNEU Denny North 400/275 kV second 2023 2024 2028 2031 2026 LNRE Reconductor Lackenby to Norton single 400 kV 2023 2028 2028 2029 2028 supergrid transformer circuit LBRE Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275kV Double Circuit 2025 2031 2035 N/A 2034 NEMS 225 MVAr MSCs within the north east region 2022 2028 2028 2029 2028 OHL reconductoring NEPC Power control device along Blyth to Tynemouth 2023 2024 N/A 2024 2024 and Blyth to South Shields Scotland – Stop Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady South Scotland & North England – Stop code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady KBRE Knocknagael to Blackhillock 275 kV double 2025 N/A N/A N/A N/A code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression circuit reconductoring EHRE Elvanfoot to Harker reconductoring 2026 N/A N/A N/A N/A TURC Tummel reactive series compensation 2023 N/A N/A N/A N/A NOA 105 2019/20 Appendix A Interactive map tables

HVDC – Proceed Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression E2D2 Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness 2028 2028 2028 N/A N/A to Cottam offshore HVDC E2DC Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness 2027 N/A N/A 2027 2027 to Hawthorn Pit E4D3 Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029 Drax offshore HVDC E4L5 Eastern Scotland to England 3rd link: Peterhead 2031 2031 2031 2031 2031 to the South Humber offshore HVDC

HVDC – Stop Option Option description EISD Two Community Consumer Steady code Degrees Renewables Evolution Progression E4DC Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to 2028 N/A N/A N/A N/A Hawthorn Pit offshore HVDC NOA 106 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

B.1 Eastern network reinforcement Peterhead and Torness in the east of Scotland (metallic return conductor) to three locations in the east of England, 1. Background • E2L2 – Torness to Cottam culminating in six options for assessment. (metallic return conductor) The scope of the reinforcements included for the These options are considered again in this eastern network in the northern region includes • E2L3 – Torness to Drax year’s NOA process; additionally, each option (metallic return conductor) offshore HVDC links and onshore reinforcement. is also considered with the addition of a metallic These reinforcement projects increase capability earth return conductor. This would permit • TLNO – Eastern Scotland to England link: on one or more of the MITS boundaries, B1a, operation of the link at reduced capacity Torness to north east England double circuit. B2, B4, B5, B6, B7, B7a and B8. The objective with one pole disabled. As a result, we have is to increase the north-to-south transfer considered 12 iterations of the previously All subsea HVDC link options involve the capability on the east coast of the Scottish and proposed subsea HVDC link options in construction of a 2 GW HVDC link and northern England transmission system between combination, in addition to the onshore associated AC onshore works at either end of boundaries B1a in the Scottish Hydro Electric alternative, within this year’s NOA process: the link. The NOA process only allows analysis of the economic benefit of the metallic return Transmission (SHE Transmission) area and B8 • E4DC – Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit in the National Grid Electricity Transmission from a boundary capability perspective, and (NGET) area, to safely enable greater volumes • E4D2 – Peterhead to Cottam further assessments around reliability will be of north-to-south power flows arising • E4D3 – Peterhead to Drax carried out during project development to fully predominantly from new renewable generation • E4LC – Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit determine the requirement of such a return path. in Scotland. This includes key boundaries The links from Peterhead can increase transfer (metallic return conductor) 2 between SHE Transmission and SP • E4L2 – Peterhead to Cottam capability on boundaries B1a down to B8 . Transmission (B4) and between SP Transmission (metallic return conductor) The links from Torness increase transfer (SPT) and NGET (B6). capability on boundaries B6 down to B82. • E4L3 – Peterhead to Drax A number of reinforcements are proposed to (metallic return conductor) • E2DC – Torness to Hawthorn Pit improve the transfer capability in accordance 1 The NETS SQSS is the National Electricity Transmission System 1 with the NETS SQSS and in line with the • E2D2 – Torness to Cottam Security and Quality of Supply Standard. GB Transmission Transmission Owners’ obligations in their Owners have licence obligations to develop their transmission systems • E2D3 – Torness to Drax in accordance with the NETS SQSS. transmission licences. Within NOA 2018/19, • E2LC – Torness to Hawthorn Pit 2 Depending on onshore location in the north of England. we considered subsea HVDC links from both NOA 107 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

The eastern onshore reinforcements increase • Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to B8 for the four 2019 future energy scenarios can the capacity of the eastern onshore circuits Cottam offshore HVDC (E2D2) – EISD of 2028 be found in sections 3.4 and 3.5 of this year’s between Blackhillock and Kincardine that cross • Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead to ETYS 2019. The figures also show the current B1a, B2 and B4 by initially augmenting their Drax offshore HVDC (E4D3) – EISD of 2029 network capabilities across the boundaries, capability at 275 kV. Uprating these circuits to • Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement as well as the distribution of annual power operate at 400 kV will deliver further capacity. (DWNO) – EISD 2028. flow for each scenario. The difference between The two onshore projects have consistently the required transfers and network capability been identified as critical through the NOA Note, economic analysis this year has shows a need for further network reinforcement. process. Additionally, an onshore network recommended two of the southern landing The figures show expected future power reinforcement is included to develop the points of the HVDC link from Torness continue flows are greatly in excess of current network network in the central belt of Scotland and to be developed this year to maintain their capability. Further information on how to increase the capability of the B5 boundary with EISDs. We will undertake further work via the interpret these boundary graphs is included the establishment of a new 400 kV corridor SWW process to determine which of these in this year’s ETYS. The difference between the central in the SPT network. southern landing points provides the most required transfers and the network capability appropriate solution for the future of the shows a need for further network reinforcement. The recommendation from the 2019/20 NOA GB network. process is to progress the following reinforcements to maintain their earliest in The need to reinforce the transmission network service date (EISD): is driven fundamentally by the growth of • East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) predominantly renewable generation and – EISD of 2023 interconnectors in the SHE Transmission, SPT • East coast onshore 400 kV incremental and NGET (north England) areas, including reinforcement (ECUP) – EISD of 2026 offshore windfarms and interconnectors situated • Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness in the Moray Firth, in the Firth of Forth and off 3 The Required Transfer figures shown take into account the north east coast of England. Required interconnectors connecting to the GB Transmission system to Hawthorn Pit offshore HVDC (E2DC) – 3 EISD of 2027 transfers for boundaries B4, B6, B7, B7a and in the 2019 future energy scenarios. NOA 108 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

2. Option development (b) East coast onshore 400 kV incremental across boundaries B1a, B2, B4, B5, B6, B7, Several reinforcement options have been reinforcement (ECUP) and B7a. This option is assessed with and developed for the eastern network in the Following ECU2, establish a new 400 kV without a metallic return conductor. northern region to improve boundary capability substation at Kintore. Uprate Alyth substation across boundaries B1a to B8. These include for 400 kV operation. Re-insulate the 275 kV (d) Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead onshore and offshore solutions and are at circuits between Blackhillock, Peterhead, to Cottam offshore HVDC (E4D2/E4L2) varying levels of development. To reflect the Rothienorman, Kintore, Fetteresso, Alyth and Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea increase in transfers for this year and the need Kincardine for 400 kV operation and install link from Peterhead (north east of Scotland) for long-term conceptual options in NOA 2018/19, phase shifting transformers at Blackhillock. to Cottam (north Nottinghamshire in England), we have submitted additional options to the This option provides additional transmission including AC/DC converter stations and process to provide an indication of what future capacity across boundaries B1a, B2 and B4. associated AC onshore works at the Peterhead reinforcements may be needed. These options and Cottam ends of the link. The AC onshore include additional onshore reinforcements, as (c) Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead works at Peterhead include upgrade of the well as a further offshore HVDC link between to Hawthorn Pit offshore HVDC (E4DC/E4LC) 275 kV circuits along the Blackhillock to the north of Scotland and England. Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea Rothienorman to Peterhead route to 400 kV link from Peterhead (north east of Scotland) operation. The AC onshore works at Cottam 2.1 Notable options to Hawthorn Pit (north of England), including are to connect into a bay at Cottam 400 kV (a) East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) AC/DC converter stations and associated AC substation. This option provides additional Establish a new 275 kV substation at Alyth, onshore works at the Peterhead and Hawthorn transmission capacity across boundaries including shunt reactive compensation at Alyth. Pit ends of the link. The AC onshore works at B1a, B2, B4, B5, B6, B7, B7a and B8. This Extend Tealing 275 kV substation and install Peterhead include the upgrade of the 275 kV option is assessed with and without a metallic two phase shifting transformers. Re-profile circuits along the Blackhillock to Rothienorman return conductor. the 275 kV circuits between Kintore, Alyth to Peterhead route to 400 kV operation. The AC and Kincardine, and Tealing, Westfield and onshore works at Hawthorn Pit include a new Longannet, and uprate the cable sections 400 kV Hawthorn Pit substation, uprating of the at Kincardine and Longannet. This option Hawthorn Pit to Norton circuit and associated provides additional transmission capacity circuit reconfiguration works in the area. This across boundaries B1a, B2 and B4. option provides additional transmission capacity NOA 109 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

(e) Eastern Scotland to England link: Peterhead connection to the ‘Branxton Converter Station’. (h) Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Drax offshore HVDC (E4D3/E4L3) The AC onshore works at Hawthorn Pit include to Drax offshore HVDC (E2D3/E2L3) Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea a new 400 kV Hawthorn Pit substation, uprating Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea link from Peterhead (north east of Scotland) to of the Hawthorn Pit to Norton circuit and link from the Torness area to Drax, including Drax (Yorkshire in England), including AC/DC associated circuit reconfiguration works. AC/DC converter stations and associated AC converter stations and associated AC onshore This option provides additional transmission works at Torness and Drax. The AC onshore works at the Peterhead and Drax ends of capacity across boundaries B6, B7 and B7a. works around Torness include extension of the link. The AC onshore works at Peterhead This option is assessed with and without a the pre-existing ‘Branxton 400 kV substation’ include upgrade of the 275 kV circuits along metallic return conductor. by two 400 kV GIS bays to provide connection the Blackhillock to Rothienorman to Peterhead to the ‘Branxton Converter Station’. The AC route to 400 kV operation. The AC onshore (g) Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness onshore works at Drax include a busbar works at Drax include a busbar extension, a new to Cottam offshore HVDC (E2D2/E2L2) extension, a new bay at the existing Drax bay at the Drax 400 kV substation and may also Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea 400 kV substation and may also include include associated fault level mitigation works. link from the Torness area to Cottam, including associated fault level mitigation works. This option provides additional transmission AC/DC converter stations and associated AC This option provides additional transmission capacity across boundaries B1a, B2, B4, B5, works at Torness and Cottam. The AC onshore capacity across boundaries B6, B7, B7a and B6, B7, B7a and B8. This option is assessed works around Torness include extension of the B8. This option is assessed with and without with and without a metallic return conductor. ‘Branxton 400 kV substation’ by two 400 kV GIS a metallic return conductor. bays to provide connection to the ‘Branxton (f) Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness Converter Station’. The AC onshore works at to Hawthorn Pit offshore HVDC (E2DC/E2LC) Cottam are to connect into a bay at Cottam Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea 400 kV substation. This option provides link from the Torness area to Hawthorn Pit, additional transmission capacity across including AC/DC converter stations and boundaries B6, B7, B7a and B8. This option associated AC works at Torness and Hawthorn is assessed with and without a metallic Pit. The AC onshore works around Torness return conductor. include extension of the ‘Branxton 400 kV substation’ by two 400 kV GIS bays to provide NOA 110 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

(i) Denny to Wishaw 400 kV reinforcement This option provides additional thermal capacity (c) Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness (DWNO) across boundaries B6, B7 and B7a. to Cottam (E2D2) Construct a new 400 kV double circuit from E2D2 is in the optimal path and critical in two Bonnybridge to Newarthill and reconfigure 2.2 Leading options of the four 2019 future energy scenarios, associated sites to establish a fourth north In the 2019/20 NOA, E4D3, E2DC, E2D2, ECUP, where the 2050 target of 80 per cent carbon to south double circuit supergrid route through ECU2 and DWNO have been identified as the reduction is met. Unlike E2DC, this crosses B7, the Scottish central belt. most efficient and beneficial reinforcements. B7a and B8, so does not rely on further onshore reinforcement to transmit power further south; One side of the new double circuit will be (a) Eastern subsea HVDC link from Peterhead however, this is delivered one year later than operated at 400 kV, the other at 275 kV. This will to Drax (E4D3) the Hawthorn Pit option. establish Denny to Bonnybridge, Bonnybridge E4D3 is in the optimal path and critical in all to Wishaw, Wishaw to Strathaven No.2 and four 2019 future energy scenarios. It has been (d) East coast onshore 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) Wishaw to Torness 400 kV circuits, and a Denny identified as critical for two consecutive years. ECU2 has a ‘proceed’ recommendation in to Newarthill to Easterhouse 275 kV circuit. This It provides additional boundary capability NOA 2019/20. It is justified in all four 2019 option provides additional transmission capacity between B1a and B8. future energy scenarios. It has been identified across boundary B5. as critical for three consecutive years. It (b) Eastern subsea HVDC link from Torness reinforces boundary B1a to B6, and ECU2 (j) Eastern Scotland to England link: Torness to Hawthorn Pit (E2DC) is the earliest option to release B4 boundary to north east England double circuit (TLNO) E2DC is in the optimal path and critical in two constraints with its EISD of 2023. Install a new double circuit from a new 400 kV of the four 2019 future energy scenarios, where substation in the Torness area to a connection the 2050 target of 80 per cent carbon reduction point on the transmission system in north east is not met. It unlocks transmission constraints England. Construct a new 400 kV double circuit across boundaries B5 to B6 from 2027. With from the Torness area to the SPT/NGET border. help of B7a and B8 reinforcements transporting Continue construction of the double circuit to a Scottish energy further south, E2DC is required suitable connection point in north east England, as early as possible to maximise its value. providing additional substation equipment where required. NOA 111 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

(e) East coast onshore 400 kV incremental of the options in more detail to identify the reinforcement (ECUP) optimum sequence and delivery dates for ECUP is in the optimal path and critical the reinforcements. in all four scenarios. As a further onshore network upgrade to ECU2 on the east coast, Preliminary subsea cable routeing is complete it unlocks system constraints from B1a to B6, and physical survey work is to be tendered in especially boundary B4. ECUP has a early 2020. For links out of Peterhead, planning ‘proceed’ recommendation. permission for the 400 kV substation at Peterhead has been granted and a preferred Other options that feature in the NOA 2019/20 location for this converter station identified. analysis for Scotland and the north of England The connection point of Torness in SPT’s area region, but which fall below the SWW threshold has been assessed and several options for are likely to be considered in the SWW analysis. the site have been identified to be further This is because they are interdependent to meet developed. For southern landing points of the the common need of improving boundary links, the associated AC onshore works will transfer capability. be further optimised and included in the SWW Needs Case submission. We expect the 3. Status construction of the HVDC projects will take A joint team among the three onshore TOs place between 2023 and 2029. The east coast has continued to assess the NOA options onshore projects in the SHE Transmission and in more detail as part of preparing an SWW SPT areas are scheduled for earlier delivery, Initial Needs Case submission to the regulator 2023 for the 275 kV works and 2026 for the in 2020. This team is organised into 400 kV uprate. The Scottish TOs are currently workstreams to consider system requirements, proposing to include the projects within their project development, delivery, and differing RIIO-T2 baseline that will be reviewed and technologies. The TOs are working with the consulted on in 2020. ESO which provides a cost-benefit analysis NOA 112 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

B.2 South east network reinforcement If they are not reinforced, these flows are The NOA 2018/19 previously recommended expected to give rise to constraints on the SCN1 as the leading option. This builds a new 1. Background London Export (LE1) and south coast export 400 kV circuit in Kent and can increase the The south east region has a high concentration (SC1rev) boundaries in the long term. At times transmission capacity of the south coast of both power demand and generation, with when the south coast interconnectors are boundaries SC1 and SC2. However, it cannot much of the demand in London and growing importing, however, the south coast import increase transmission capability of EC5 and LE1 generation capacity in the Thames Estuary and boundaries (SC1, SC2 and SC3) could also and requires additional options to reinforce the East Anglia. Interconnectors to Europe also give rise to some constraints. transmission corridors across and through the operate along the south coast of England and north of London before it can provide capability East Anglia and heavily influence power flows 2. Options development for SC1rev. in the region by importing and exporting to continental Europe. The coastline and waters Several reinforcement options have been around East Anglia are attractive for offshore developed to improve transmission capacity wind projects and nuclear generation is also across the south coast, London and East expected in the region. Anglia. These options include uprating transmission routes, constructing new routes, The future growth of renewable generation new substations and installing reactive power capacity in East Anglia is expected to give rise compensation at key locations. to a high volume of constraints if the East Anglia boundary (EC5) is not reinforced. Furthermore, 2.1 Leading options the increase of interconnection capacity on the The NOA 2019/20 recommends SCD1 as the south coast, combined with the build-up of leading option. This was submitted by NGET renewable generation in East Anglia and the for analysis for the first time in 2019. It consists north, is expected to drive more consistent of constructing a 2 GW offshore HVDC link and north-to-south flows through the region to meet associated substation works between Suffolk demand in London and export power to Europe and Kent. This will significantly increase the through interconnectors on the south coast. transmission capacity on system boundaries SC1, SC1rev, SC2, LE1 and EC5. NOA 113 2019/20 Appendix B SWW projects

2.2 Other options 3. Economic assessment 4. Status Other recommendations from this year’s NOA The NOA 2019/20 analysis suggests SCD1 NGET has reviewed several design variations process include proceeding with the following provides significant economic benefit. It is of SCD1, which encompass other reinforcement reinforcements for the south east region: critical in Two Degrees and Community options to maximise system boundary benefits. • Reconductor remainder of Bramford to Renewables in 2028 and required in 2029 Preliminary work to identify the optimal Braintree to Rayleigh route (BRRE) – EISD: in Steady Progression and in 2034 in connection substations at both ends is ongoing. 2024 Consumer Evolution. SCD1 received NGET will continue working with stakeholders • Reconductor the newly-formed second a ‘proceed’ recommendation following the towards a SWW Initial Needs Case submission. Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Main circuit single year least worst regret (LWR) analysis. Since SCD1 is at a very initial phase of (BPRE) – EISD: 2029 development, the ESO recommends that both The economic benefit of SCD1 is derived SCD1 and SCN1 are subject to more detailed • A new 400 kV double circuit between Bramford largely from the capability it provides to EC5, technical and economic analysis leading to an and Twinstead (BTNO) – EISD: 2028 which is the most constrained boundary in SWW project Initial Needs Case submission. • Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits uprating (KLRE) the south east region. Its contribution towards – EISD: 2020 relieving constraints on LE1 and SC1rev is • Reconductor Bramley to Melksham double also important, especially in later years when circuit (MBHW) – EISD: 2024 interconnector exports to mainland Europe • Elstree to Sundon reconductoring (SER1) are high. – EISD: 2023 SCD1 provided greater economic benefit than • Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean circuit (FLR3) SCN1 in NOA 2019/20, although the capital cost – EISD: 2020. of the HVDC link is higher. This is mainly due to its ability to provide capability to a wider range ESO and NGET will also continue to investigate of boundaries and its earlier EISD. other options. Examples include a second HVDC circuit between Suffolk and Kent (SCD2) and commercial solutions (CS51 and CS53) as proposed this year. NOA 114 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

The table below shows the options assessed in this NOA BBNC Construct a new 400 kV double circuit between Beauly and Blackhillock. At both sites, extend publication, together with their four-letter codes. The four-letter the 400 kV busbar arrangements to allow for the codes appear throughout the report in tables and charts. Beauly to Blackhillock 400 kV connection of two additional bays. double circuit addition The list below is divided by regions, both North and South. Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B1aI, B1aE, B1aF, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I This year, next to each option, we have added a unique icon which Region: North represents the category. You can find out more about the various options BBP1 Install a power control device along the Bramford in ‘Chapter 3 – Proposed options’. to Braintree 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve the capability to control the power flows east Power control device along of the transmission network. Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. Bramford to Braintree Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1 Region: South

BFEU Replace substation assets at Bramley and Fleet to allow the Bramley to Fleet circuits to operate at higher thermal rating following the reconductoring works. Thermal upgrade for Bramley This will allow more power flow to the south. and Fleet 400 kV substation Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: SC1e Region: South

BFHW Thermal upgrade of the Bramley to Fleet circuits to allow them to operate at higher temperatures, and increase their thermal rating. Bramley to Fleet circuits thermal uprating Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: SC1e Region: South

BFRE Replace the conductors in the Bramley to Fleet circuits with higher-rated conductors to increase their thermal ratings. Bramley to Fleet reconductoring Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: SC1e Region: South NOA 115 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

BLN2 Replace the Beauly to Shin to Loch Buidhe BPP2 Install a power control device along the Braintree 132 kV double circuit overhead line with a higher to Pelham 400 kV overhead line route. This would capacity 275 kV double circuit overhead line, including improve the capability to control the power flows east Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275 kV new transformers at Shin and substation extensions Power control device along of the transmission network. reinforcement at Beauly and Loch Buidhe. Braintree to Pelham Status: Scoping Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B0 Boundaries affected: LE1 Region: North Region: South

BMM2 Two new 225 MVAr switched capacitors (MSCs) at BPRE Replace the conductors of the newly formed second Burwell Main would provide voltage support to the Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Main circuit that East Anglia area as system flows increase in future. has not already been reconductored with higher- 225 MVAr MSCs at Burwell Main Reconductor the newly formed rated conductors. This would increase the circuit’s Status: Design second Bramford to Braintree thermal rating following the new 400 kV double circuit Boundaries affected: EC5, LE1 between Bramford and Twinstead. Region: South to Rayleigh Main circuit Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: EC5 Region: South

BNRC Provide additional reactive series compensation BRRE Replace the conductors in the parts of the existing equipment at Bolney and Ninfield substations, to Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh overhead line maintain voltages within acceptable operational limits that have not already been reconductored with Bolney and Ninfield additional in future network operating conditions. Reconductor remainder higher-rated conductors, to increase the circuit’s reactive series compensation of Bramford to Braintree thermal rating. Status: Scoping to Rayleigh route Boundaries affected: SC1, SC1e, SC2, SC3 Status: Project not started Region: South Boundaries affected: B9, EC5, LE1, SC1e Region: South

BPP1 Install a power control device along the Bramford BTNO Construct a new 400 kV double circuit between to Pelham 400 kV overhead line route. This would Bramford substation and Twinstead tee point to improve the capability to control the power flows east create double circuits that run between Bramford to Power control device along of the transmission network. A new 400 kV double circuit Pelham and Bramford to Braintree to Rayleigh Main. Bramford to Pelham between Bramford and Twinstead It would increase power export capability from East Status: Project not started Status: Scoping Anglia into the rest of the transmission system. Boundaries affected: LE1 Boundaries affected: B9, EC5, LE1, SC1e Region: South Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 116 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

BWRE Replace the conductors in the Barking to West Ham CDP2 Install a power control device along the Cellarhead single circuit with higher-rated conductors. to Drakelow 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve the capability to control the power flows from Reconductor Barking to West Power control device along north to south of the transmission network. Ham double circuit Cellarhead to Drakelow Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: South Region: North

CBEU Using historical weather data, Creyke Beck to Keadby CDP3 Install an alternative power control device along 400 kV overhead line enhanced thermal rating is the Cellarhead to Drakelow 400 kV overhead line established to cope with high flows from the north route. This would improve the capability to control Creyke Beck to Keadby east of the transmission network. Alternative power control device the power flows from north to south of the advance rating along Cellarhead to Drakelow transmission network. Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8, B9 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: North and South Region: North

CDHW Thermal upgrade of both Cellarhead to Drakelow CDP4 Install an additional alternative power control device 400 kV circuits to allow them to operate at higher along the Cellarhead to Drakelow 400 kV overhead temperature and rating. line route. This would improve the capability to Cellarhead to Drakelow circuits Alternative power control device control the power flows from north to south of the thermal uprating along Cellarhead to Drakelow transmission network. Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B8 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: North Region: North

CDP1 Install a power control device along the Cellarhead CDRE Replace the conductors on the existing double to Drakelow 400 kV overhead line route. This would circuit from Cellarhead to Drakelow with higher-rated improve the capability to control the power flows from conductors to increase their thermal rating. Power control device along north to south of the transmission network. Cellarhead to Drakelow Cellarhead to Drakelow reconductoring Status: Project not started Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B8 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: North Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 117 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

CGNC Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central CS34 This ESO-led commercial solution provides Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements boundary benefit across boundaries B2 and B4 across the relevant boundaries. Substation works in the north of Scotland. A new 400 kV double circuit is required to accommodate the new circuits. Commercial solution for the between Creyke Beck and the north of Scotland South Humber Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B2, B4 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: North Region: North

CKNC Construct a new transmission route within Kent area, CS35 This ESO-led commercial solution provides and carry out associated work. These works would benefit across the Anglo-Scottish boundary and provide additional transmission capacity between further south. New 400 kV transmission route the south of London and the south coast. Commercial solution for Scotland in Kent area and the north of England Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: SC1, SC1e Boundaries affected: B6, B7a Region: South Region: North

CKPC Install a power control device along the Creyke Beck CS51 This commercial solution provides boundary to Keadby to Killingholme 400 kV overhead line benefit across the East Anglia region. route. This would improve the capability to control Power control device along the power flows from north to south of the Commercial solution for East Creyke Beck to Keadby transmission network. Anglia to Killingholme Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: EC5 Boundaries affected: B8, B9 Region: South Region: North and South

CRPC Install a power control device along the Cottam to CS53 This ESO-led commercial solution provides Ryhall 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve boundary benefit in the south coast. the capability to control the power flows from north Power control device along to south of the transmission network. Commercial solution for the Cottam to Ryhall south coast Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B8 Boundaries affected: SC1, SC3 Region: North Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 118 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

CTP1 Install a power control device along the Creyke Beck DEPC Install a power control device along the Drax to to Thornton 400 kV overhead line route. This would Eggborough 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve the capability to control the power flows from improve the capability to control the power flows Power control device along north to south of the transmission network. Power control device along Drax from north to south of the transmission network. Creyke Beck to Thornton to Eggborough Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B8 Boundaries affected: B8 Region: North Region: North

CTP2 Install an alternative power control device along DLUP Following WLTI and DNEU, increase the operating the Creyke Beck to Thornton 400 kV overhead line voltage of the Windyhill to Lambhill to Denny 275 kV route. This would improve the capability to control circuit by the establishment of a new 400 kV gas Alternative power control device the power flows from north to south of the Uprate the Windyhill to Lambhill insulated substation at Windyhill, the installation of along Creyke Beck to Thornton transmission network. to Denny North 275 kV circuit a new 400/275 kV transformer at Windyhill 400 kV Status: Project not started to 400 kV substation, a new 400/275 kV transformer at Lambhill Boundaries affected: B8 Status: Project not started substation and transferring existing 275 kV circuit onto Region: North Boundaries affected: B5, B6SPT the existing Denny 400 kV substation. Region: North

CTRE Replace the conductors on the remaining sections DNEU Installation of a new 400/275 kV, 1,000 MVA supergrid of the Coryton South to Tilbury circuit, which have transformer (SGT2) at Denny North 400 kV substation. not recently been reconductored with higher-rated Reconductor remainder of conductors. These would increase the circuit’s Denny North 400/275 kV Coryton South to Tilbury circuit thermal rating. second supergrid transformer Status: Scoping Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: LE1 Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, Region: South B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5 Region: North

CWPC Install a power control device along the Cottam to DREU This reinforcement is to replace generator-owned West Burton 400 kV overhead line route. This would circuit breakers with higher-rated equivalents including improve the capability to control the power flows substation equipment. This would allow higher fault Power control device along from north to south of the transmission network. Generator circuit breaker levels, which in turn improves load sharing on circuits Cottam to West Burton replacement to allow Thornton connecting to the substation. Status: Project not started to run a two-way split Boundaries affected: B8, B9 Status: Project not started Region: North and South Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 119 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

DWN2 Following DWUP and DWNO, construct a new 400 kV E2D3 Construction of a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea double circuit from Bonnybridge to north of Newarthill, link from Torness area to Drax to provide additional establishing Denny to Bonnybridge 400 kV and transmission capacity. The onshore works involve the Denny to Wishaw 400 kV Bonnbridge to Wishaw 400 kV in addition to Eastern Scotland to England link: construction of AC/DC converter stations and the reinforcement Denny to Clydesmill 400 kV from DLUP. Torness to Drax offshore HVDC associated AC works at Torness and Drax. Status: Design/Development Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B5, B6SPT Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, Region: North B7aI, B8 Region: North

DWNO Construct a new 400 kV double circuit from E2DC Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea link Bonnybridge to Newarthill, and reconfigure associated from the Torness area to Hawthorn Pit to provide sites to establish a fourth north-to-south double additional transmission capacity. The onshore Denny to Wishaw 400 kV circuit supergrid route through the Scottish central Eastern subsea HVDC link from works involve the construction of AC/DC converter reinforcement belt. One side of the new double circuit will operate Torness to Hawthorn Pit stations and the associated AC works at Torness Status: Design/development at 400 kV, the other at 275 kV. This reinforcement Status: Scoping and Hawthorn Pit. Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, will establish Denny to Bonnybridge, Bonnybridge Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6SPT to Wishaw, Wishaw to Strathaven No.2 and Wishaw B7aI, B8 Region: North to Torness 400 kV circuits, and a Denny to Newarthill Region: North to Easterhouse 275 kV circuit.

DWUP Following WLTI and DNEU, establish a new 400 kV E2L2 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link single circuit between Denny North, Clydesmill and from Torness area to Cottam. The link will involve Wishaw by reconfiguration of the existing Longannet substation works, circuit upgrades and HVDC Establish Denny North to Easterhouse/Clydesmill 275 kV circuits and Eastern subsea HVDC link converter stations at both Torness and Cottam. to Clydesmill to Wishaw existing de-energised circuit between Easterhouse from Torness to Cottam with The link will include a metallic earth return conductor single 400 kV circuit from existing and Newarthill and the existing Newarthill to Wishaw metallic return to permit operation at reduced capacity with one circuit. pole disabled. 275 kV circuits Status: Scoping Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, Boundaries affected: B5, B6SPT B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North

E2D2 Construction of a new offshore 2 GW HVDC subsea E2L3 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link from link from Torness area to Cottam to provide additional Torness area to Drax. The link will involve substation transmission capacity. The onshore works involve the works, circuit upgrades and HVDC converter stations Eastern Scotland to England construction of AC/DC converter stations and the Eastern subsea HVDC link from at both Torness and Drax. The link will include a link: Torness to Cottam offshore associated AC works at Torness and Cottam. Torness to Drax with metallic metallic earth return conductor to permit operation HVDC return at reduced capacity with one pole disabled. Status: Scoping Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI, B8 B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 120 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

E2LC Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link E4DC Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC subsea from Torness area to Hawthorne Pit. The link will link from Peterhead in the north east of Scotland to involve substation works, circuit upgrades and HVDC Hawthorn Pit in the north of England. The onshore Eastern subsea HVDC link from converter stations at both Torness and Hawthorne Eastern Scotland to England works involve the construction of AC/DC converter Torness to Hawthorn Pit with Pit. The link will include a metallic earth return link: Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit stations and the associated AC works at Peterhead metallic return conductor to permit operation at reduced capacity offshore HVDC and Hawthorn Pit. Status: Scoping with one pole disabled. Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B7aI, B8 B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, Region: North B7aI, B8 Region: North

E4D2 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC subsea E4L2 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link from link from Peterhead in the north east of Scotland to Peterhead to Cottam. The link will involve substation Cottam along the east side of England. The onshore works, circuit upgrades and HVDC converter stations Eastern Scotland to England link: works involve the construction of AC/DC converter Eastern Scotland to England link: at both Peterhead and Cottam. The link will include a Peterhead to Cottam offshore stations and the associated AC works at Peterhead Peterhead to Cottam offshore metallic earth return conductor to permit operation at HVDC and Cottam. HVDC reduced capacity with one pole disabled. Status: Scoping Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI, B8 B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North

E4D3 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC subsea E4L3 Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link from link from Peterhead in the north east of Scotland to Peterhead to Drax. The link will involve substation Drax in the Yorkshire area of England. The onshore works, circuit upgrades and HVDC converter stations Eastern Scotland to England link: works involve the construction of AC/DC converter Eastern Scotland to England link: at both Peterhead and Drax. The link will include a Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC stations and the associated AC works at Peterhead Peterhead to Drax offshore HVDC metallic earth return conductor to permit operation at Status: Scoping and Drax. Status: Scoping reduced capacity with one pole disabled. Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI, B8 B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 121 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

E4L5 Following a first HVDC link from Peterhead to E6L5 Following a first HVDC link from Peterhead to England, construct an additional offshore 2 GW England, construct an additional offshore 2 GW bipole bipole HVDC link from Peterhead to a location near HVDC link from Tealing to a location near the Humber, Eastern Scotland to England the Humber, provisionally the substation in the South Eastern Scotland to England 3rd provisionally the substation in the South Humber. 3rd link: Peterhead to the South Humber. The link will involve substation works, circuit link: Tealing to the South Humber The link will involve substation works, circuit upgrades Humber offshore HVDC upgrades and HVDC converter stations at both offshore HVDC and HVDC converter stations at both Tealing and the Status: Project not started Peterhead and the South Humber. The link will include Status: Project not started South Humber. The link will include a metallic earth Boundaries affected: B1aF, B1aI, B1aE, a metallic earth return conductor to permit operation Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, return conductor to permit operation at reduced B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, at reduced capacity with one pole disabled. B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B6I, B7aI, B8 capacity with one pole disabled. B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North

E4LC Construct a new offshore 2 GW bipole HVDC link EAM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at from Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit. The link will involve Eaton Socon would provide voltage support to the substation works, circuit upgrades and HVDC North London area as system flows increase in future. Eastern Scotland to England converter stations at both Peterhead and Hawthorn 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon link: Peterhead to Hawthorn Pit Pit. The link will include a metallic earth return Status: Project not started conductor to permit operation at reduced capacity Boundaries affected: B9, LE1 offshore HVDC Region: South Status: Scoping with one pole disabled. Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI, B8 Region: North

E5L5 Following a first HVDC link from Peterhead to EAM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at England, construct an additional offshore 2 GW bipole Eaton Socon would provide voltage support to the HVDC link from Blackhillock to a location near the North London area as system flows increase in future. Eastern Scotland to England 3rd Humber, provisionally the substation in the South 225 MVAr MSC at Eaton Socon link: Blackhillock to the South Humber. The link will involve substation works, circuit Status: Project not started upgrades and HVDC converter stations at both Boundaries affected: B9, LE1 Humber offshore HVDC Region: South Status: Project not started Blackhillock and the South Humber. The link will Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, include a metallic earth return conductor to permit B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B6I, B7aI, B8 operation at reduced capacity with one pole disabled. Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 122 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

ECU2 Establish a new 275 kV substation at Alyth; re-profile ESC1 New second 400 kV cable transmission circuit from the 275 kV circuits between Kintore, Fetteresso, Elstree to St John’s Wood in the existing tunnel, and Alyth and Kincardine; and Tealing, Westfield and carry out associated work, including modifying Elstree East coast onshore 275 kV Longannet; and uprate the cable sections at Second Elstree to St John’s Wood 400 kV and St John’s Wood 400 kV substations. upgrade Kincardine and Longannet to match the enhanced 400 kV circuit This will improve the power flow into London. Status: Planning/consenting rating. Extend Tealing 275 kV substation and install Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, two phaseshifting transformers. Install shunt reactive Boundaries affected: LE1, SC1e B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6SPT series compensation at the new Alyth substation. Region: South Region: North

ECUP The option builds on the east coast onshore FBRE Reconductor the Beauly to Fyrish 275 kV double 275 kV upgrade (ECU2) and upgrades the 275 kV circuit overhead line with a high temperature low infrastructure on the east coast for 400 kV operation. sag conductor. This option is conditional on SHE East coast onshore 400 kV Establish new 400 kV substations at Rothienorman Beauly to Fyrish 275 kV double Transmission business approval for the use of a high incremental reinforcement and Kintore, and uprate Alyth substation (proposed circuit reconductoring temperature conductor on the 275 kV network and Status: Planning/consenting under ECU2) for 400 kV operation. Re-insulate the Status: Project not started suitability of the conductor for use on the existing L3 Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, 275 kV circuits between Blackhillock, Rothienorman, Boundaries affected: B0 tower structures. B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I, B5, B6SPT Kintore, Fetteresso, Alyth and Kincardine for 400 kV Region: North Region: North operation. Install phase-shifting transformers at Blackhillock on the 275 kV circuits from Knocknagael. Install 400/275 kV transformers at Kincardine, Alyth and Kintore and install 400/132 kV transformers at Fetteresso and Rothienorman.

ECVC Installation of two SVCs at Eccles 400 kV substation, FINS Create a new grid supply point near Fiddes and a real-time ratings system on the 400 kV connected to the 275 kV double circuit overhead overhead line circuits between Moffat and Harker and line between Kintore and Tealing. Construct a new Eccles synchronous series Gretna and Harker and 400 kV cable circuits between East coast 132 kV upgrade 132 kV double circuit from Tealing to Brechin and compensation and real-time Crystal Rig and Torness. Status: Scoping rationalise the present Fiddes, Brechin, Tarland and Boundaries affected: B4E, B4F, B4I Craigiebuckler network configuration. rating system Region: North Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI Region: North

EHRE Replace the double circuit conductors in the Elvanfoot FLR3 Replace the conductors in the Fleet to Lovedean to Harker circuits with a higher-rated conductor to circuits with higher-rated conductors to increase their increase their thermal ratings. thermal ratings. Elvanfoot to Harker Reconductor Fleet to Lovedean reconductoring circuit Status: Scoping Status: Construction Boundaries affected: B6SPT Boundaries affected: SC1, SC1e, SC2 Region: North Region: South Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 123 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

GCNC Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in South GWNC Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in Lincolnshire Humber to facilitate power transfer requirements to facilitate power transfer requirements across the across the relevant boundaries. Substation works relevant boundaries. Substation works are required A new 400 kV double circuit is required to accommodate the new circuits. A new 400 kV double circuit to accommodate the new circuits. between South Humber and between South Humber and West Lincolnshire South Lincolnshire Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8, B9 Region: North Region: North and South

GKEU Thermal upgrade of the 400 kV Grain and Kingsnorth HAE2 Replacing an existing transformer at Harker substation equipment to increase its thermal capacity, substation with a new one of higher rating to prevent supporting future load flow within the area. overloading following transmission system faults. Thermal upgrade for Grain and Harker supergrid transformer Kingsnorth 400 kV substation 5 replacement Status: Project not started Status: Design Boundaries affected: SC1, SC2 Boundaries affected: B6F, B6I, B7, B7aI Region: South Region: North

GKPC Install a power control device along the Grain to HAEU Replacing an existing transformer at Harker Kingsnorth 400 kV overhead line route. This would substation with a new one of higher rating to prevent improve the capability to control the power flows overloading following transmission system faults. Power control device along Grain south east of the transmission network. Harker supergrid transformer 6 to Kingsnorth replacement Status: Project not started Status: Design Boundaries affected: SC1 Boundaries affected: B6F, B6I, B7, B7aI Region: South Region: North

GRRA Change the running arrangement configuration at HBUP Upgrade the Hinkley Point to Bridgewater 275 kV Grain 400 kV substation so that it is split into two circuits to 400 kV including insulator and conductor sections. Following faults, the circuit loading balance replacement. Connect the circuits to the new Hinkley Grain running arrangement is improved. Uprate Bridgewater to 400 kV and Point 400 kV substation. change reconductor the route to Hinkley Status: Not applicable as it is an operational Status: Design solution Boundaries affected: B13, SC1 Boundaries affected: SC3 Region: South Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 124 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

HFRE Replace the conductors in the Harker to Fourstones HSR1 Replace the conductors in the Harker to Stella West single circuit with higher-rated conductors. single circuit with higher-rated conductors. Reconductor Harker to Reconductor Harker to Stella Fourstones double circuit West Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B6I, B7aI Boundaries affected: B6I Region: North Region: North

HNNO Modification of the Hunterston East to Devol Moor HWUP Hackney, Tottenham and Waltham Cross substation 400 kV circuit to become the Hunterston East to uprate from 275 kV to 400 kV, and the double circuit Neilston 400 kV double circuit overhead line (overhead route connecting them. This will strengthen the power Hunterston East to Neilston line), and development of a new 400/275 kV supergrid Uprate Hackney, Tottenham and flow into London, via Rye House, down to Hackney. 400 kV reinforcement transformer (SGT4) at Neilston 400 kV substation. Waltham Cross 275 kV to 400 kV Status: Optioneering and consenting started Status: Design Boundaries affected: B6SPT Boundaries affected: B9, LE1, SC1e Region: North Region: South

HSP1 Install a power control device along the Fourstones ITUP Uprate the double circuit route between Iver to Tilbury to Harker to Stella West 275 kV overhead line from 275 kV to 400 kV, and the associated 275 kV route. This would improve the capability to control substations along the route. These works would Power control device along the power flows from north to south of the Uprate Iver to Tilbury route further provide additional transmission capacity Fourstones to Harker to Stella transmission network. from 275 kV to 400 kV between the south of London and the south coast. West Status: Project not started Status: Design Boundaries affected: LE1, SC1e Boundaries affected: B6F, B6I, B7, B7aF, B7aI Region: South Region: North

HSP2 Install a power control device along the Fourstones KBRE Reconductor the Knocknagael to Blackhillock 275 kV to Harker to Stella West 275 kV overhead line double circuit overhead line with a high temperature route. This would improve the capability to control low sag conductor. This option is conditional on SHE Power control device the power flows from north to south of the Knocknagael to Blackhillock Transmission business approval for the use of a high along Fourstones to Harker transmission network. 275 kV double circuit temperature conductor on the 275 kV network and to Stella West reconductoring suitability of the conductor for use on the existing L3 Status: Design Status: Project not started tower structures. Boundaries affected: B6I Boundaries affected: B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, Region: North B4F, B4I Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 125 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

KLRE The 400 kV circuits running from Kemsley via LCUP Create a new 400 kV substation in the circuits Longfield Tee to Littlebrook would be reconductored between Smeaton and Wishaw. Upgrade the circuit with higher-rated conductors. between Loangannet and Currie from 275 kV to Kemsley to Littlebrook circuits Uprating of Longannet to 400 kV 400 kV and connect into the new 400 kV substation. uprating operation, installation of new Status: Construction Boundaries affected: SC1e, SC1, SC2, SC3 400 kV substation between Region: South Wishaw and Torness, and uprate existing 275 kV circuit to 400 kV Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B5, B6SPT Region: North

KWHW Thermal upgrade of the Keadby to West Burton LNRE Replace the conductors in the Lackenby to Norton circuits to allow them to operate at higher single circuit with higher-rated conductors, and temperatures, and increase their thermal rating. replace the cable with a larger cable of higher rating Keadby to West Burton circuits Reconductor Lackenby to Norton to increase the circuit’s thermal rating. The two thermal uprating single 400 kV circuit options have different conductor types that provide Status: Project not started Status: Project not started different ratings. Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: B7, B7aI Region: North Region: North

KWPC Install a power control device along the Keadby to LNP1 Install an additional power control device along West Burton 400 kV overhead line route. This would the Lackenby to Norton 400 kV circuit overhead line improve the capability to control the power flows from route. This would improve the capability to control Power control device along north to south of the transmission network. Power control device along the power flows across the east and west of the Keadby to West Burton Lackenby to Norton transmission network. Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: B7, B7aI Region: North Region: North

LBRE Reconductor the Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275 kV LNPC Install a power control device along the Lackenby double circuit overhead line with a high temperature to Norton 400 kV circuit overhead line route. low sag conductor. This option is conditional on SHE This would improve the capability to control the Beauly to Loch Buidhe 275 kV Transmission business approval for the use of a high Power control device along power flows across the east and west of the double circuit overhead line temperature conductor on the 275 kV network and Lackenby to Norton transmission network. reconductoring suitability of the conductor for use on the existing L3 Status: Design Status: Project not started tower structures. Boundaries affected: B7, B7aF, B7aI Boundaries affected: B0 Region: North Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 126 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

MBHW Thermal upgrade of both Bramley to Melksham MRPC Install a power control device along the 400 kV circuits to allow them to operate at higher Penwortham to Kirkby 275 kV circuit overhead line temperature and rating. route. This would improve the capability to control Bramley to Melksham circuits Power control device along the power flows across the east and west of the thermal uprating Penwortham to Kirkby transmission network. Status: Project not started Status: Design Boundaries affected: B13, SC1e Boundaries affected: B7aF, B7aI Region: South Region: North

MBRE Replace the conductors in the Bramley to Melksham NBRE The double circuit that runs from Norwich circuits with higher-rated conductors to increase their to Bramford would be reconductored with thermal ratings. a higher-rated conductor. Bramley to Melksham Reconductor Bramford to reconductoring Norwich double circuit Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B13, LE1, SC1e Boundaries affected: EC5 Region: South Region: South

MHPC Install a power control device along the Harker to NEC1 Upgrade cable of the Necton circuit with a larger Gretna and Harker to Moffat 400 kV overhead line cable section increasing the circuit’s thermal ratings. route. This would improve the capability to control This will allow higher through flows and increase the Power control device along the power flows from north to south of the Cable replacement at Necton power flow. Harker to Gretna and Harker transmission network. 400 kV substation to Moffat Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B9 Boundaries affected: B6I Region: South Region: North

MRP1 Install an additional power control device along the NEMS Three new 225 MVAr switched capacitors (MSCs) Penwortham to Washway Farm to Kirkby 275 kV at Norton, Osbaldwick and Stella West 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve the capability substations would provide voltage support to the east Power control device along to control the power flows from north to south of the 225 MVAr MSCs within the north side of the transmission network as system flows Penwortham to Washway Farm transmission network. east region increase in future. to Kirkby Status: Scoping Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7, B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: B7aI Region: North Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 127 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

NEP1 Install an additional power control device along the NOPC Install a power control device along the Norton Blyth to Tynemouth and Blyth to South Shields 275 kV to Osbaldwick 400 kV circuit overhead line route. overhead line route. This would improve the capability This would improve the capability to control the Power control device along Blyth to control the power flows from north to south of the Power control device along power flows across the east and west of the to Tynemouth to Blyth to South transmission network. Norton to Osbaldwick transmission network. Shields Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: B7aI Region: North Region: North

NEPC Install a power control device along the Blyth to NOR1 Replace some of the conductors in the Norton Tynemouth and Blyth to South Shields 275 kV to Osbaldwick double circuit with higher-rated overhead line route. This would improve the capability conductors to increase the circuit’s thermal ratings. Power control device along Blyth to control the power flows from north to south of the Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton to Tynemouth and Blyth to South transmission network. to Osbaldwick 400 kV double Shields circuit Status: Project not started Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B6I, B7aI Boundaries affected: B7aI Region: North Region: North

NOM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at NOR2 Replace some of the conductors in Norton to Norwich would provide voltage support to the East Osbaldwick 1 circuit with higher-rated conductors Anglia area as system flows increase in future. to increase the circuit’s thermal rating. 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: EC5 to Osbaldwick number 1 400 kV Region: South circuit Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI Region: North

NOM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at NOR4 Replace some of the conductors in Norton to Norwich would provide voltage support to the East Osbaldwick 2 circuit with higher-rated conductors Anglia area as system flows increase in future. to increase the circuit’s thermal rating. 225 MVAr MSC at Norwich Reconductor 13.75 km of Norton Status: Project not started to Osbaldwick number 2 400 kV Boundaries affected: EC5 circuit Region: South Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7, B7a Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 128 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

NTP1 Install a power control device along the North Tilbury OPN2 Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central 400 kV overhead line route. This would improve the Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements capability to control the power flows east of the across the relevant boundaries. 275 kV circuit Power control device along North transmission network. A new 400 kV double circuit upgrades are required in central Yorkshire. Tilbury between Osbaldwick and Substation works might be required to Status: Project not started accommodate the new circuits. Boundaries affected: LE1 Poppleton and relevant Region: South 275 kV upgrades Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Region: North

OENO Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central OPN3 Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements across the relevant boundaries. Substation works across the relevant boundaries. 400 kV circuit Central Yorkshire reinforcement might be required to accommodate the new circuits. A new 400 kV double circuit upgrades are required in central Yorkshire. Status: Scoping between Osbaldwick and Substation works might be required to Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8, B9 accommodate the new circuits. Region: North and South Poppleton using cable and relevant 400 kV upgrades Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI Region: North

OPN1 Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central OPN4 Construct a new 400 kV double circuit in central Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements Yorkshire to facilitate power transfer requirements across the relevant boundaries. 400 kV circuit across the relevant boundaries. 275 kV circuit A new 400 kV double circuit upgrades are required in central Yorkshire. A new 400 kV double circuit upgrades are required in central Yorkshire. between Osbaldwick and Substation works might be required to between Osbaldwick and Substation works might be required to accommodate Poppleton and relevant 400 kV accommodate the new circuits. Poppleton using cable and the new circuits. upgrades relevant 275 kV upgrades Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Region: North Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 129 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

PEM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) RHM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at at Pelham would provide voltage support through Rye House would provide voltage support through East Anglia and North London as system flows East Anglia and North London as system flows 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham increase in future. 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House increase in future. Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B9, EC5, LE1 Boundaries affected: EC5, LE1 Region: South Region: South

PEM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) RTRE Replace the conductors on the remaining sections of at Pelham would provide voltage support through the Rayleigh to Tilbury circuit, which have not recently East Anglia and North London as system flows been reconductored with higher-rated conductors. 225 MVAr MSC at Pelham increase in future. Reconductor remainder of These would increase the circuit’s thermal rating. Status: Project not started Rayleigh to Tilbury circuit Boundaries affected: B9, EC5, LE1 Status: Scoping Region: South Boundaries affected: EC5, LE1, SC1e Region: South

PWMS Two new 225 MVAr switched capacitors (MSCs) SCD1 Construct a new offshore 2 GW HVDC circuit between at Penwortham substations would provide voltage Suffolk and Kent. support around Mersey area as system flows increase Two 225 MVAr MSCs at in future. New offshore HVDC link between Penwortham Suffolk and Kent Option 1 Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: EC5, LE1, SC1, SC1e Region: North Region: South

RHM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at Rye SCD2 Construct a second new offshore 2 GW HVDC circuit House would provide voltage support through East between Suffolk and Kent, parallel with SDC1. Anglia and North London as system flows increase 225 MVAr MSC at Rye House in future. New offshore HVDC link between Status: Scoping Suffolk and Kent Option 2 Boundaries affected: EC5, LE1, SC1e Status: Project not started Region: South Boundaries affected: EC5 Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 130 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

SCN1 Construct a new transmission route from the south SHNS Substation upgrade of the 400 kV South Humber coast to south London, and carry out associated substation equipment. work. These works would provide additional New 400 kV transmission route transmission capacity between the south of Upgrade substation in the between south London and the London and the south coast. South Humber area south coast Status: Project not started Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Boundaries affected: SC1, SC1e Region: North Region: South

SEEU Provide a new communications system, and other TDH1 Thermal upgrade of Drax to Thornton 2 circuit to equipment, to allow existing reactive equipment to allow it to operate at higher temperature and rating be switched in or out of service very quickly following and upgrade the other associated equipment at the Reactive series compensation transmission system faults. This would allow better Drax to Thornton 2 circuit substations. This will increase the power flow across protective switching scheme control of system voltages following faults. thermal uprating and equipment the boundary. Status: Scoping upgrade Boundaries affected: SC2 Status: Project not started Region: South Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Region: North

SER1 Replace the conductors from Elstree to Sundon TDH2 Thermal upgrade of Drax to Thornton 1 circuit to allow circuit 1 with higher-rated conductors to increase their it to operate at higher temperature and upgrade the thermal rating. other associated equipment at the substations. This Elstree to Sundon reconductoring Drax to Thornton 1 circuit will increase the power flow across the boundary. Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B9, LE1, SC1e thermal uprating and equipment Region: South upgrade Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B7aI, B8 Region: North

SER2 Turn-in the Elstree to Sundon circuit 2, which currently TDP2 Install an additional power control device along passes the Elstree 400 kV substation, to connect the Drax to Thornton 400 kV overhead line route. to it and replace the conductor with a higher-rated This would improve the capability to control Elstree to Sundon 2 circuit turn-in conductor. This would ensure better load flow sharing Additional power control device the power flows from north to south of the and reconductoring and increase the thermal rating. along Drax to Thornton transmission network. Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1, SC1e Boundaries affected: B8 Region: South Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 131 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

TDPC Install a power control device along the Drax to TKUP Establish further 400 kV infrastructure on the east Thornton 400 kV overhead line route. This would coast following the east coast 400 kV onshore improve the capability to control the power flows incremental (ECUP) reinforcement, eastern HVDC Power control device along Drax from north to south of the transmission network. East coast onshore 400 kV phase link from Peterhead (E4DC/D2/D3) and from to Thornton 2 reinforcement Torness (E2DC/D2/D3). Rebuild the Kintore to Status: Project not started Status: Project not started Tealing 275 kV double circuit for 400 kV operation Boundaries affected: B8 Boundaries affected: B2E, B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, and install new 400/275 kV transformers at Tealing. Region: North B4I, B5, B6SPT Re-insulate the existing Tealing to Longannet route Region: North through Glenrothes, Westfield and Mossmorran for 400 kV operation. Install 400/275 kV transformers at Glenrothes and Longannet and new 400/132 kV transformers at Westfield and Mossmorran.

THRE Replace the conductors in the Hinkley Point to TLNO This option provides additional transmission Taunton circuits with higher-rated conductors to capacity by installing a double circuit from a new increase the circuit’s thermal ratings. 400 kV substation in the Torness area to a suitable Reconductor Hinkley Point Torness to north east England AC connection point in north east England. to Taunton double circuit onshore reinforcement Status: Scoping Status: Scoping Boundaries affected: SC1e Boundaries affected: B5, B6I, B6SPT, B7aI Region: South Region: North

THS1 Install series reactors at Thornton substation. TMEU Reconfigure Thorpe Marsh 400 kV substation to These would connect the parts of the site at present balance flows on the surrounding circuits. This would operated disconnected from one another to limit fault ensure better load flow sharing and increase the Install series reactors at Thornton levels. The reactors would allow some flow sharing Thorpe Marsh substation power flow. Status: Scoping between the different parts of the site and reduce reconfiguration Boundaries affected: B7, B7aI, B8 thermal overloads on connected circuits. Status: Project not started Region: North Boundaries affected: B9 Region: South

TKRE Replace the conductors in the Tilbury to Grain TUEU Following TURC, relocate the SGTs at Tummel to the and Tilbury to Kingsnorth circuits with higher-rated new 275 kV substation and connect to the Errochty conductors, and replace the associated cables with circuits with new 132 kV cables. Tilbury to Grain and Tilbury larger cables of a higher rating, including Tilbury, Tummel reconfiguration to Kingsnorth upgrade Grain and Kingsnorth substation equipment. This will Status: Scoping Status: Scoping increase the circuit’s thermal ratings. Boundaries affected: B2E, B2F, B2I, Boundaries affected: LE1, SC1, SC1e B4E, B4F, B4I Region: South Region: North

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 132 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

TURC Establish a 275 kV double busbar at Tummel WAM3 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at substation and install shunt reactive series Walpole would provide voltage support to the North compensation. London area as system flows increase in future. Tummel reactive series 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole compensation Status: Project not started Status: Planning/consenting Boundaries affected: B9, LE1 Boundaries affected: B1aE, B1aF, B1aI, B2E, Region: South B2F, B2I, B4E, B4F, B4I Region: North

TWNC Upgrade Waltham Cross, Tilbury and Warley 400 kV WHTI Turn-in the West Boldon to Hartlepool circuit, which substation, turn in Elstree to Warley circuit into currently passes the Hawthorn Pit site to connect to Waltham Cross 400 kV substation and uprate Warley it. This would create new West Boldon to Hawthorn Uprate Tilbury to Waltham Cross to Tilbury circuit to 400 kV from 275 kV. Construct Turn-in of West Boldon to Pit and Hawthorn Pit to Hartlepool circuits. This route from 275 kV to 400 kV and new transmission route to Hertfordshire from Waltham Hartlepool circuit at Hawthorn Pit would ensure better load flow sharing and increased new 400 kV transmission route in Cross 400 kV substation. These works would further Status: Design connectivity in the north east 275 kV ring. The two provide additional transmission capacity between the Boundaries affected: B6I, B7, B7aI options have different delivery years. Hertfordshire area south of London and the south coast. Region: North Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1 Region: South

WAM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at WLTI Turn the Windyhill to Lambhill to Longannet 275 kV Walpole would provide voltage support to the North circuit into Denny North 275 kV substation to create London area as system flows increase in future. a 275 kV Windyhill to Lambhill to Denny North circuit 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole Windyhill to Lambhill to and a Denny North to Longannet No.2 275 kV circuit. Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: B9, LE1 Longannet 275 kV circuit turn-in Region: South to Denny North 275 kV substation Status: Design/development Boundaries affected: B5, B6SPT Region: North

WAM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at WRRE Replace the conductors in the West Burton to Walpole would provide voltage support to the North Ratcliffe-on-Soar circuit with higher-rated conductors London area as system flows increase in future. to increase the circuit’s thermal ratings. 225 MVAr MSC at Walpole Reconductor West Burton Status: Project not started to Ratcliffe-on-Soar circuit Boundaries affected: B9, LE1 Status: Project not started Region: South Boundaries affected: B9 Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 133 2019/20 Appendix C List of options

WYM1 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at Wymondley would provide voltage support to the North London area as system flows increase in future. 225 MVAr MSC at Wymondley Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1 Region: South

WYM2 One new 225 MVAr switched capacitor (MSC) at Wymondley would provide voltage support to the North London area as system flows increase in future. 225 MVAr MSC at Wymondley Status: Project not started Boundaries affected: LE1 Region: South

WYQB Install a pair of quad boosters on the double circuits running from Wymondley to Pelham at the Wymondley 400 kV substation. The quad boosters Wymondley quad boosters would improve the capability to control the power Status: Design flows on the North London circuits. Boundaries affected: LE1, SC1e Region: South

WYTI Modify the existing circuit that runs from Pelham to Sundon. Turn-in the circuit at Wymondley to create two separate circuits that run from Pelham Wymondley turn-in to Wymondley and from Wymondley to Sundon Status: Design to improve the balance of flows. Boundaries affected: B9, LE1, SC1e Region: South

Please click here to navigate back to the interactive map in section 4.4. NOA 134 2019/20 Appendix D Meet the NOA team

Julian Leslie Nicholas Harvey Head of Networks, Electricity System Operator Network Development Manager [email protected] [email protected] The Networks team addresses the engineering challenges of operating The Network Development team delivers an efficient GB and offshore the electricity network by studying from the investment options stage electricity transmission system by understanding present capabilities in a changing energy landscape through to network access just a day and working out the best options to meet the requirements of possible ahead of real-time. future energy scenarios. NOA 135 2019/20 Appendix D Meet the NOA team

Network Development You can contact us to discuss: Supporting parties We develop a holistic strategy for the NETS. Strategic network planning and production This includes the following key activities: The Network Options Assessment of the NOA requires support and input from Hannah Kirk-Wilson many people. These include: • Testing the FES against models of the GB Technical Economic Assessment Manager • National Grid Electricity Transmission NETS to identify potential transmission [email protected] • SHE Transmission requirements and publishing in the ETYS. • SP Transmission • Supporting Needs Case studies of Cost-benefit analysis and the Network • our customers. reinforcement options as part of the Options Assessment SWW process. Marc Vincent Don’t forget, you can also email us with • Supporting cost-benefit studies of different Economics Team Manager your views on the NOA at: connections designs. [email protected] [email protected] • Developing long-term strategies for a secure and efficient GB transmission network against OR: the changing industry needs. Network requirements and the Electricity Ten Year Statement James Whiteford GB System Capability Manager [email protected] NOA 136 2019/20 Appendix E Glossary

Throughout this document, there are at least two miles in SP Transmission’s GW – Gigawatt: Interconnector: terms highlighted in purple that are system. In the case of an offshore 1,000,000,000 watts, a measure of power. Electricity interconnectors are transmission explained in more detail here. transmission system, this is a transmission assets that connect the GB market to line which consists of two circuits sharing GWh – Gigawatt hour: Europe and allow suppliers to trade BID3: the same towers for at least one span. 1,000,000,000 watt hours, a unit of energy. electricity between markets. BID3 is an economic dispatch optimisation model supplied by Pöyry Management EISD – Earliest in service date: GB – Great Britain: MW – Megawatt: Consulting. It can simulate all European The earliest date when the project A geographical, social and economic 1,000,000 watts, a measure of power. power markets simultaneously, including could be delivered and put into service, grouping of countries that contains the impact of interconnection between if investment in the project was England, Scotland and Wales. MWh – Megawatt hour: markets. BID3 has been specifically started immediately. 1,000,000 watt hours, a measure of power developed for National Grid ESO to model HVAC – High Voltage Alternating usage or consumption in 1 hour. the impact of electricity networks in GB, ESO – Electricity System Operator: Current: allowing the System Operator to calculate An entity entrusted with transporting Electric power transmission in which Merit order: constraint costs it would incur to balance electric energy on a regional or national the voltage varies in a sinusoidal fashion, An ordered list of generators, sorted by the system, post-gate closure. level, using fixed infrastructure. Unlike resulting in a current flow that periodically the marginal cost of generation. a TO, the ESO may not necessarily own reverses direction. HVAC is presently CBA – Cost-benefit analysis: the assets concerned. For example, the most common form of electricity MITS – Main Interconnected A method of assessing the benefits of a National Grid ESO operates the electricity transmission and distribution, since Transmission System: given project in comparison to the costs. transmission system in Scotland, which it allows the voltage level to be This comprises all the 400 kV and 275 kV This tool can help to provide a comparative is owned by Scottish Hydro Electric raised or lowered using a transformer. elements of the onshore transmission base for all projects to be considered. Transmission and SP Transmission. system and, in Scotland, the 132 kV HVDC – High Voltage Direct Current: elements of the onshore transmission Critical: FES – Future energy scenarios: The transmission of power using system operated in parallel with the The option is ‘optimal’ on its earliest They are a range of credible futures which continuous voltage and current as supergrid. It also includes any elements in service date (EISD) in at least has been developed in conjunction with opposed to alternating current. HVDC of an offshore transmission system one scenario. the energy industry. They are a set of is commonly used for point to point operated in parallel with the supergrid. scenarios covering the period from now to long-distance and/or subsea connections. It excludes generation circuits, transformer Double circuit overhead line: 2050, and are used to frame discussions HVDC offers various advantages over connections to lower voltage systems, In the case of the onshore transmission and perform stress tests. They form the HVAC transmission, but requires the use external interconnections between the system, this is a transmission line which starting point for all transmission network of costly power electronic converters at onshore transmission system and external consists of two circuits sharing the same and investment planning, and are used to each end to change the voltage level and systems, and any offshore transmission towers for at least one span in SHE identify future operability challenges and convert it to/from AC. systems radially connected to the Transmission’s system or National Grid potential solutions. onshore transmission system via single Electricity Transmission’s system or for interface points. NOA 137 2019/20 Appendix E Glossary

NETS – National Electricity Electricity Transmission System OFGEM – Office of Gas and Peak demand: Transmission System: is made up of both the onshore Electricity Markets: The maximum power demand in any one The National Electricity Transmission transmission system and the offshore The UK’s independent National Regulatory fiscal year: peak demand typically occurs System comprises the onshore and transmission system. Authority, a non-ministerial government at around 5:30pm on a week-day between offshore transmission systems of England, department. Their principal objective is to December and February. Different Wales and Scotland. It transmits high- NGET – National Grid Electricity protect the interests of existing and future definitions of peak demand are used voltage electricity from where it is Transmission plc: electricity and gas consumers. for different purposes. produced to where it is needed throughout National Grid Electricity Transmission plc the country. The system is made up of (No. 2366977) whose registered office is Offshore: Power supply background high-voltage electricity wires that extend 1–3 Strand, London, WC2N 5EH. This term means wholly or partly (aka generation background): across Britain and nearby offshore waters. in offshore waters. The sources of generation across Great It is owned and maintained by regional Network access: Britain to meet the power demand. transmission companies, while the system Maintenance and system access is Offshore transmission circuit: as a whole is operated by a single System typically undertaken during the spring, Part of an offshore transmission system Reactive power: Operator (SO). summer and autumn seasons when the between two or more circuit breakers Reactive power is a concept used by system is less heavily loaded and access which includes, for example, transformers, engineers to describe the background NETSO – National Electricity is favourable. With circuits and equipment reactors, cables, overhead lines and DC energy movement in an alternating current Transmission System Operator: unavailable, the integrity of the system is converters but excludes busbars and (AC) system arising from the production of National Grid acts as the NETSO for the reduced. The planning of the system onshore transmission circuits. electric and magnetic fields. These fields whole of Great Britain while owning the access is carefully controlled to ensure store energy which changes through each transmission assets in England and Wales. system security is maintained. Onshore: AC cycle. Devices which store energy by In Scotland, transmission assets are This term refers to assets that are wholly virtue of a magnetic field produced by a owned by Scottish Hydro Electric NOA – Network Options Assessment: on land. flow of current are said to absorb reactive Transmission Ltd (SHE Transmission) The NOA is the process for assessing power; those which store energy by virtue in the north of the country and Scottish options for reinforcing the National Onshore transmission circuit: of electric fields are said to generate Power Transmission (SP Transmission) Electricity Transmission System (NETS) Part of the onshore transmission system reactive power. in the south. to meet the requirements that the between two or more circuit breakers Electricity System Operator (ESO) finds which includes, for example, transformers, Real power: NETS SQSS – National Electricity from its analysis of the future energy reactors, cables and overhead lines but This term (sometimes referred to as ‘active Transmission System Security and scenarios (FES). excludes busbars, generation circuits and power’) provides the useful energy to a Quality of Supply Standards: offshore transmission circuits. load. In an AC system, real power is A set of standards used in the planning accompanied by reactive power for any and operation of the National Electricity Optimal: power factor other than 1. Transmission System of Great Britain. The option is economically justified For the avoidance of doubt, the National in at least one scenario. NOA 138 2019/20 Appendix E Glossary

SHE Transmission: Switchgear: SWW – Strategic Wider Works: TSO – Transmission System Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission The term used to describe components of This is a funding mechanism as part of the Operator: (No. SC213461) whose registered office a substation that can be used to carry out RIIO-T1 price control that allows TOs to An entity entrusted with transporting is situated at Inveralmond HS, 200 Dunkeld switching activities. This can include, but is bring forward large investment projects energy in the form of natural gas or power Road, Perth, Perthshire PH1 3AQ. not limited to, isolators/disconnectors and that have not been funded in the price on a regional or national level, using fixed circuit breakers. control settlement. infrastructure. SP Transmission: Scottish Power Transmission Limited System operability: Transmission circuit: (No. SC189126) whose registered office The ability to maintain system stability and This is either an onshore transmission is situated at 1 Atlantic Quay, Robertson all of the asset ratings and operational circuit or an offshore transmission circuit. Street, Glasgow G2 8SP. parameters within pre-defined limits safely, economically and sustainably. TEC – Transmission entry capacity: SRF – system requirements form: The maximum amount of active power Set of templates that are completed by SOF – System Operability Framework: deliverable by a power station at its grid the TOs and submitted to NGESO which The SOF identifies the challenges and entry point (which can be either onshore or contain details on the options to be opportunities which exist in the operation offshore). This will be the maximum power assessed in the NOA. To find out more, of future electricity networks and identifies deliverable by all of the generating units please read the NOA report methodology. measures to ensure the future operability. within the power station, minus any auxiliary loads. Summer minimum: System stability: The minimum power demand off the With reduced power demand and a Transmission losses: transmission network in any one fiscal tendency for higher system voltages Power losses that are caused year: minimum demand typically occurs during the summer months, fewer by the electrical resistance of the at around 06:00am on a Sunday between generators will operate and those that transmission system. May and September. do run could be at reduced power factor output. This condition has a tendency to TOs – Transmission Owners: Supergrid: reduce the dynamic stability of the NETS. A collective term used to describe the That part of the National Electricity Therefore, network stability analysis is three transmission asset owners within Transmission System operated at a usually performed for summer minimum Great Britain, namely National Grid nominal voltage of 275 kV and above. demand conditions as this represents the Electricity Transmission, Scottish limiting period. Hydro Electric Transmission and SGT – supergrid transformer: Scottish Power Transmission. A term used to describe transformers on the NETS that operate in the 275–400 kV range. NOA 139 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

Executive summary Chapter 1 – Introduction Option LNPC is new in this year’s NOA reconductor the first circuit, NOR2. (page 03) (page 9) and along with reinforcements, MRPC and So this option is now ‘critical’ across three WHTI, benefits the northern England scenarios – Two Degrees, Community Proceed 1 Ofgem closed its statutory consultation boundaries in early years. The option is Renewables and Steady Progression Total cost of £11.1bn* on changes to Standard Licence ‘optimal’ and ‘critical’ under all scenarios – and must meet its EISD of 2022. Investing £203m in 2020/21. Condition C27 of electricity transmission and is needed on its EISD of 2020. Number of ESO-led commercial in January 2020. The changes proposed Option HAEU, along with HAE2, continues solutions 3. new requirements for the ESO to assess Option WHTI, along with HSP1, HAEU, to provide benefit to the southern Scotland Saving consumers up to £950m projects recommended for further LNPC, and MRPC, reinforces boundaries and northern England boundaries as seen *This only includes the costs for E2DC development in the NOA and projects in northern England from 2021 and in NOA 2018/19. However, as opposed to and not E2D2. These projects are for future generator and demand provides further benefit for interconnector HAE2, it is more beneficial when mutually exclusive and therefore connections, for their eligibility for imports. Following the same independently delivered and is therefore only one will be delivered in full. competition. recommendation as NOA 2018/19, WHTI is ‘critical’ in all scenarios with a required recommended to ‘proceed’ and is ‘critical’ EISD in 2022. Delay 4.3 The NOA outcomes in all scenarios from its EISD in 2021. With a total deferred spend of £713k Table 4.1 Scotland and the north Option CS35 is an ESO-led commercial as a decision to invest was not deemed of England region Option WLTI is a pre-requisite for ECU2 solution, which benefits the Anglo-Scottish economical this year. (page 37) and reinforces southern Scotland and and northern England boundaries in all northern England boundaries. It had a scenarios from its EISD of 2023. The Hold Option HSP1 is new in NOA 2019/20. recommendation in NOA 2018/19 of ‘hold’. option does not displace or ‘delay’ any These options were ‘optimal’ but an It benefits boundaries in southern This year, WLTI was ‘critical’ in one asset-based options in the ‘optimal’ paths, investment is not required this year. The Scotland and northern England in early scenario, Community Renewables, as it provides further benefits to the recommendation could be made when years under various interconnector flow however the single year least regret network in mid-2020s when other there is greater certainty in the future. conditions. This option is ‘optimal’ and analysis showed it was not economically reinforcements are yet to be delivered. ‘critical’ under all scenarios and is needed viable to deliver on its EISD of 2021. So its CS35 is ‘critical’ in all scenarios except Do not start on its EISD in 2020. recommendation is ‘delay’. Consumer Evolution. These options are not ‘optimal’, and therefore delivery should not be Option MRPC is new in NOA 2019/20 Option NOR2 provides capability in Option ECU2 provides additional progressed this year. and along with LNPC and WHTI benefits northern England from the early 2020s. transmission capacity across most the northern England boundaries in the NOR2 forms part of the wider option of Scottish boundaries from as early NOA I/C early years. The option is ‘critical’ under NOR1, which includes the reconductoring as 2023. The option is critical in all Total interconnection capacity range of all scenarios and is needed on its EISD from Norton to Osbaldwick of the first scenarios which is consistent with the between 18.1 to 23.1 GW between GB and of 2020. circuit, known as NOR2, and the second NOA 2018/19 result. European markets. circuit, known as NOR4. This year’s analysis showed only a need to NOA 140 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

Option HNNO benefits boundaries in Option CBEU benefits northern England It works with several other north Midlands Option ECVC benefits boundaries in southern Scotland and provides these and north Midlands boundaries from 2023. reinforcements, including CDP1, CKPC southern Scotland and northern England. independently of other options in early It was in the ‘optimal’ path in last year’s and KWPC. The option was ‘critical’ in In NOA 2018/19, the recommendation was years. HNNO was recommended to NOA and was required in 2025 in all four Two Degrees and further analysis showed to ‘hold’ this reinforcement; in this year’s ‘proceed’ in NOA 2018/19 and is still FES scenarios. CBEU is ‘optimal’ in all further benefit to its delivery in 2024 as NOA the recommendation to ‘proceed’ is ‘critical’ in all four scenarios; so we scenarios but not ‘critical’. opposed to deferring it until 2026. justified due to the benefits it provides to recommend to ‘proceed’ on its EISD the southern Scotland and Anglo-Scottish in 2023. Option NEPC is new in NOA 2019/20 Option KWPC is new in NOA 2019/20 and boundaries. and reinforces the northern England provides north Midlands boundary Option THS1 benefits boundaries in boundaries. It is driven by the increasing capability from early 2020s. The economic Option ECUP builds on ECU2 and northern England from the early 2020s and Anglo-Scottish and interconnector benefit of this option is realised from 2024 benefits the Scotland boundaries. It is works alongside TDH1, TDH2 and TDPC. power flows. and so is ‘optimal’ in all scenarios but not ‘optimal’ and ‘critical’ in all scenarios THS1 is ‘critical’ in all scenarios and ‘critical’. and is to be delivered on its EISD of 2026. needed from its EISD of 2023. Option DNEU benefits the Scotland boundaries. The outcome of this Option CKPC is new to this year’s NOA Option TDH1, along with TDH2, is new in Option HAE2, along with HAEU, continues reinforcement was also ‘hold’ in NOA and forms part of the group of options: this year’s NOA and reinforces the north to provide benefit to the southern Scotland 2018/19. KWPC, TDPC and KWHW. It provides Midlands boundaries. Both reinforcements and northern England boundaries as seen north Midlands boundary capability are beneficial with the delivery of the from NOA 2018/19. This option is ‘critical’ Option NEP1 is new in this year’s NOA from 2024. second eastern subsea HVDC link, E2DC. under all scenarios. and builds on option NEPC. It brings further benefit in northern England Option CDHW is new in NOA 2019/20. Option TDP2 is new to this year’s NOA Option CDP1 is new to this year’s NOA. It boundaries from 2024. This option is It benefits north Midlands and South and reinforces the north Midlands benefits north Midlands boundaries and is seen to be ‘critical’ under three scenarios: Humber boundaries and forms part of the boundaries. This option is additional to only considered ‘critical’ in Two Degrees. Two Degrees, Consumer Evolution and group of reinforcements: KWPC, CKPC, TDH1 and TDH2 which will provide benefit However, the single year least worst regret Steady Progression. TDPC and KWHW. Whilst the boundary when the commissioning of the second analysis suggested this reinforcement be capability is realised from 2022, it is mainly eastern subsea HVDC link, E2DC, takes ‘delayed’. 4.3 The NOA outcomes justified from 2024, with northern England place. Table 4.1 Scotland and the north power flows being released by other Option TDH2, along with TDH1, is new in of England region reinforcements: HAEU, WHTI and NEPC. Option OPN2 is new in this year’s NOA. this year’s NOA and reinforces the north (page 38) So it is ‘optimal’ in all scenarios but It is an alternative to OENO and benefits Midlands boundaries. Both reinforcements not ‘critical’. boundaries in northern England. OPN2 is are beneficial with the delivery of the Option CTP2 is a new reinforcement to ‘critical’ under two scenarios, Consumer second eastern subsea HVDC link, E2DC. NOA 2019/20 and brings benefits to north Option TDPC is new to this year’s NOA Evolution and Steady Progression, Midlands capability from as early as 2024. and works alongside CKPC and KWHW to to meet its EISD of 2027. reinforce the north Midlands boundaries. NOA 141 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

Option CDP2 is new in NOA 2019/20, Progression, where there is less Option NOR4 benefits boundaries in and Drax) proposed for the first Anglo- bringing benefits to north Midlands. In all renewable growth, E2DC is found most northern England from the late 2020s. Scottish eastern subsea HVDC links. scenarios, both CDP1 and CDP2 are ‘optimal’ as the needs for transfer It is best aligned with other reinforcements Compared to E2DC, it lands further south, ‘optimal’ to achieve the capabilities needed capability are less demanding. So the such as LNRE, NEMS and PWMS after making it more beneficial to boundaries in the north Midlands from 2027. However, option is ‘critical’ in Consumer Evolution 2028. NOR4 forms part of the wider in northern England in the later years. unlike CDP1, this option is not ‘critical’ and Steady Progression, which is option of NOR1, which includes the Although it is more expensive and requires under any scenario and should be put consistent with NOA 2018/19 results. reconductoring from Norton to Osbaldwick a year longer to deliver, it is still more on ‘hold’. In Two Degrees and Community of the first circuit, known as NOR2, and the ‘optimal’ than E2DC in Two Degrees Renewables, E2DC is less ‘optimal’ second circuit, known as NOR4. NOR4 and Community Renewables. In NOA Option KWHW, along with options CKPC than E2D2 in this NOA. was recommended to ‘proceed’ in the 2018/19, the recommendation was ‘Do and TDPC, provides north Midlands previous NOA, however this year’s analysis not start’, the recommendation in NOA boundary capability from 2024. It is also a Option DWNO benefits the southern and showed there was no further benefit of 2019/20 is to ‘proceed’ as it is now ‘critical’ pre-requisite for when the eastern subsea central Scottish boundaries. The analysis delivering NOR4 on its EISD due to new in two scenarios, Two Degrees and HVDC links are commissioned. Similar to showed that it was ‘critical’ in all scenarios power flow control devices in northern Community Renewables. HSR1, from NOA 2018/19, this is and needed on its EISD of 2028. England. So this option is not ‘critical’ recommended to ‘hold’ until later years as under any scenario and should be put Option CWPC is new to this year’s NOA other reinforcements are required instead Option LNRE reinforces the northern on ‘hold’. and benefits the north Midlands boundary in the earlier years to alleviate the England boundaries. In NOA 2018/19, this capability from early 2020s. The option is constraints in northern boundaries. was given a ‘proceed’, however this year’s Option PWMS is new in NOA 2019/20 ‘optimal’; however analysis showed it analysis showed other reinforcements now and works in combination with other should be put on ‘hold’ until the second Option E2DC benefits boundaries in provide further benefit in the northern northern England reinforcements to eastern subsea HVDC link, E2DC, and the southern Scotland and northern England. England boundaries for the early 2020s. provide increased capability to the third eastern HVDC subsea link, E4L5, It connects Torness and Hawthorn Pit and So the option is no longer ‘critical’ in northern England boundaries. are connected. is one of the three options (the other two any of the scenarios and received a options include E2D2 between Torness recommendation of ‘hold’. 4.3 The NOA outcomes Option E4D3 is the second eastern and Cottam and E2D3 between Torness Table 4.1 Scotland and the north subsea HVDC link which follows and Drax) proposed for the first Anglo- Option NEMS reinforces the northern of England region the first link connecting between Torness Scottish eastern subsea HVDC links. England boundaries and was given a (page 39) and England. It provides major benefit Compared to the other two candidates, ‘proceed’ in NOA 2018/19. The across Scottish and northern English E2DC is much shorter and can be recommendation for this year is ‘hold’, as Option E2D2 benefits boundaries in boundaries and is justified in all scenarios delivered a year earlier. This means it can analysis showed there was further benefit southern Scotland and northern England. on its EISD of 2029. The option, provide more near-term benefits; but the when delivered alongside other It connects Torness and Cottam and is connecting between Peterhead and Drax, downside is that it covers fewer reinforcements in the late 2020s. one of the three options (the other two is found to be more optimal than E4DC boundaries in northern England. In include E2DC between Torness and (between Peterhead and Hawthorn Pit) Consumer Evolution and Steady Hawthorn Pit and E2D3 between Torness when delivered together with E2D2 (first NOA 142 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

link between Torness and Cottam). E4D3 is Option CGNC, together with other options accommodate the power flows to England. 4.3 The NOA outcomes also more economically viable than the in the South Humber area – GWNC, SHNS E4L5, together with these onshore Table 4.5 The south and east other alternative option, E4D2 (between and E4L5 – is ‘critical’ under the three reinforcements, is ‘critical’ in all scenarios of England region Peterhead and Cottam). E4D3 is critical scenarios of Two Degrees, Community to be delivered on its EISD of 2031. (page 46) across all scenarios which is consistent Renewables and Consumer Evolution. with the NOA 2018/19 result. It is not required by Steady Progression Option LBRE is new in NOA 2019/20 and Option KLRE benefits multiple south which sees fewer constraints in the South reinforces the northern Scotland coast boundaries by reinforcing the Option DEPC is new in NOA 2019/20 and Humber area. To maximise its benefit for boundaries. Due to the increased network to accommodate power flows benefits the north Midlands boundary the connection of the third eastern subsea generation capacity of the northern from the south east coast into London. capability from 2024. It is only required HVDC link, E4L5, it is recommended to be Scotland regions, this reinforcement Analysis showed the option to be ‘critical’ when the connection of the Torness to delivered on its EISD. becomes beneficial in the 2030s. in all four scenarios. Hawthorn Pit eastern subsea HVDC link, E2DC, is realised. Option CRPC, is new in this year’s NOA, Option TLNO benefits boundaries in Option GRRA provides an increase bringing benefits to north Midlands southern Scotland and northern England. capability to the export power flows Option NOPC is new in NOA 2019/20 and capability and is justified in later years It had a recommendation in the NOA of one of the south east coast boundaries reinforces the northern England and north for Two Degrees and Community 2018/19 of ‘Do not start’, however by changing the circuit connection Midlands boundaries. Renewables where the first eastern alongside the third eastern subsea HVDC arrangements of the Grain 400 kV subsea HVDC link, E2D2, connects link, E4L5, and those proposed for the substation. It is an operational measure Option SHNS is new in NOA 2019/20 and at Cottam. South Humber area, TLNO is now justified with no capital cost or other expenditure is required for the third eastern subsea by its further benefits on northern England and is ‘critical’ in all four scenarios. HVDC link, E4L5, from Peterhead to the Option CDP4 is new and benefits boundaries. TLNO has now become South Humber area. This option is ‘critical’ north Midlands capability from 2031 ‘critical’ under all scenarios except Option FLR3 is new in NOA 2019/20, across all scenarios so needs to meet its when the third eastern subsea HVDC Steady Progression. and has a pre-requisite option, KLRE. EISD of 2031. link, E4L5, connects. CDP4, along with It provides capability to the south coast CDP2, is ‘optimal’, but not ‘critical’ under Option HSR1 is new in this year’s NOA boundary for both import and export Option GWNC is new to this year’s NOA. any scenario. and benefits southern Scotland and interconnector flows to Europe. This It will bring benefits when the connection northern England capability in the late option is ‘critical’ in all four scenarios. of the eastern subsea HVDC link, E4L5, Option E4L5 is the third eastern subsea 2020s. This option is recommended happens in the South Humber area. HVDC link, which is required following the to ‘hold’ as it further reinforces with RTRE received a recommendation in NOA It further reinforces the north Midlands first link between Torness and England and the increased generation capacity in 2018/19 of ‘proceed’. In this year’s analysis, boundaries and relieves boundaries in second link between Peterhead and northern England. this option was initially given a ‘hold’ Scotland and northern England. The England. E4L5 connects Peterhead and recommendation and was ‘optimal’ in option is ‘optimal’ and ‘critical’ in all the South Humber area and can alleviate 2022, one year after its EISD, in all scenarios and needed on its EISD in 2031. constraints across all major boundaries. It scenarios. Given the reinforcement’s requires several onshore reinforcements to minimal first year spend as well as NOA 143 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

operational advice presented at the NOA during high southern interconnector export interconnector exports to Europe. BRRE Anglia regions. RHM2 received a Committee, it was agreed to overturn this flows to Europe. SER1 was given the was recommended in NOA 2018/19 to recommendation in NOA 2018/19 of recommendation from ‘hold’ to ‘proceed’. recommendation in NOA 2018/19 to ‘delay’ ‘hold’, this year it was seen to be ‘critical’ ‘Do not start’ with NOA 2019/20 giving and in this year’s NOA the recommendation under all scenarios and so received a a recommendation of ‘hold’ due to Option CTRE has a pre-requisite option, is to ‘proceed’ as analysis shows it is recommendation of ‘proceed’. generation background changes leaving RTRE, and provides capability to the ‘critical’ in all four scenarios. it ‘optimal’ but not ‘critical’. London Export boundary in the early Option PEM1, together with PEM2, years. Option CS53 is an ESO-led commercial benefits the London Export, East Anglia 4.3 The NOA outcomes solution has a pre-requisite option, BNRC, and Midlands to south boundaries. Table 4.5 The south and east Option BMM2 is a pre-requisite for other to benefit the south and south east coast PEM1 received a recommendation in NOA of England region reinforcements, BTNO and SCD1, to boundaries. The option was seen 2018/19 of ‘Do not start’ with NOA 2019/20 (page 47) provide benefit across the East Anglia to be ‘critical’ in three scenarios, Two giving a recommendation of ‘hold’ as it and London Export boundaries. This Degrees, Consumer Evolution and was found to be ‘optimal’ but not ‘critical’. Option SER2 has a pre-requisite option was seen to be ‘critical’ in all Steady Progression. reinforcement, SER1, and provides benefit four scenarios. Option PEM2, together with PEM1, across the south coast and London Export Option GKEU has pre-requisite options, benefits the London Export, East Anglia boundaries during high southern Option SEEU provides capability to the KLRE and BNRC, and provides additional and Midlands to south boundaries. PEM2 interconnector export flows to Europe. south east region. Analysis showed that capability for the south and south east received a recommendation in NOA SEEU is ‘critical’ in all four FES scenarios. coast region for southern interconnector 2018/19 of ‘Do not start’ with NOA 2019/20 Option CS51 is an ESO-led commercial imports from Europe. giving a recommendation of ‘hold’ as it solution which benefits the East Anglia Option BNRC provides capability to the was found to be ‘optimal’ but not ‘critical’. boundary. It does not displace or ‘delay’ southern coast boundaries, especially for Option MBHW is new in NOA 2019/20 any asset-based options in the ‘optimal’ high interconnector imports. BNRC is and provides capability to south coast Option RHM1, together with RHM2, is a paths, as it provides further benefits to the ‘critical’ in all four scenarios. boundaries with increased generation pre-requisite to BPRE. The option network, due to the increased generation capacity in the south west and south coast reinforces the London Export and East capacity in the area, when reinforcements Option NTP1 is new in NOA 2019/20, has region. This option is ‘critical’ in one Anglia regions. RHM1 received a BTNO and SCD1 are yet to be delivered. pre-requisite options, BMM2 and RTRE, scenario, Community Renewables. recommendation in NOA 2018/19 of ‘Do It was seen to be ‘critical’ in Two Degrees. and provides benefit to the London Export not start’ with NOA 2019/20 giving a boundary. Analysis has shown that the Option BRRE is a pre-requisite to recommendation of ‘hold’ due to Option NBRE has as pre-requisite options option is ‘critical’ in all four scenarios. reinforcements BTNO and SCD1 and generation background changes leaving it BMM2 and BRRE and benefits the East provides additional capability to the East ‘optimal’ but not ‘critical’. Anglia region. Option SER1 is a pre-requisite Anglia, south coast and London Export reinforcement to SER2 and provides boundaries. The analysis has seen further Option RHM2, together with RHM1, is a benefits across the south coast London benefit due to the increased generation pre-requisite to BPRE and RTRE to Export and Midlands to south boundaries capacity in the East Anglia region for reinforce the London Export and East NOA 144 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

Option ESC1 provides capability to the Option BTNO is a pre-requisite to Two Degrees, Steady Progression 4.3 The NOA outcomes south coast and London Export boundaries. reinforcement BPRE and follows SCD1 and Community Renewables, and so Table 4.5 The south and east and SCD2 to provide the highest capability received a recommendation of ‘proceed’. of England region Option TKRE works with SCD1 to benefit to the East Anglia boundaries. The analysis (page 48) multiple south coast boundaries. TKRE showed it is ‘critical’ under all scenarios. Option SCD2 is new in this year’s NOA was given the recommendation in NOA and follows other reinforcements, SCD1, Option WAM2 is new in NOA 2019/20 and, 2018/19 to ‘stop’ as it was superseded by Option SCD1 is new in this year’s NOA BPRE and BTNO, to provide additional together with WAM1 and WAM3, provides SCN1. This year’s NOA recommendation is and provides capability to boundaries in capability to the East Anglia boundary. additional capability from the Midlands to to ‘proceed’ as analysis shows it is ‘critical’ the East Anglia, south east and south south boundaries. in all four scenarios. coast regions. SCD1 reinforces a wider Option EAM1, together with EAM2, range of boundaries than other options, is new in this year’s NOA and benefits Option WAM3 is new in NOA 2019/20 and, Option HBUP is new in this year’s NOA such as SCN1, resulting in a high the London Export boundary and the together with WAM1 and WAM2, provides and provides additional capability to the economic benefit for the HVDC link. Midlands to south boundary. EAM1 additional capability from the Midlands to south west and south coast regions. It provides additional benefit to the enables other reinforcements, such south boundaries. export power flows from the East Anglia as BTNO or SCD1, to provide capability Option BFHW has as a pre-requisite region, with an expected increase in for these boundaries under the condition Option NEC1 is new to the NOA 2019/20 option, BRRE, and provides capability generation capacity in future years. of increased power flows. and reinforces the Midlands to south on the south east coast region for when So analysis showed this option to be boundary due to the increased power interconnectors are exporting to Europe. ‘critical’ in two scenarios, Two Degrees Option EAM2, together with EAM1, is flows in the regions. and Community Renewables. a new reinforcement in this year’s NOA Option MBRE reinforces the south west and provides benefit to the London Option THRE provides capability on the and south coast regions, especially for Option WYTI benefits the south east Export boundary and the Midlands to south coast boundary during high southern interconnector exports to Europe. and Midland regions. south boundary. EAM2 enables other key southern interconnector export flows reinforcements, such as BTNO or SCD1, to Europe. Option NOM1 is new in this year’s NOA, Option BPRE, following the to provide capability for these boundaries has a pre-requisite option, BTNO, and reinforcements SCD1 and BTNO, provides during increased power flows. Option BFRE provides capability reinforces the East Anglia region. further capability in the East Anglia region on the south coast boundary for when whilst also supporting flows through the Option WAM1 is new in NOA 2019/20 and, interconnectors are exporting to Europe, Option NOM2 is new in this year’s NOA Midlands to southern boundaries. The together with WAM2 and WAM3, provides especially with increased exports in later and has a pre-requisite option, BTNO, analysis showed further benefit to the additional capability from the Midlands to years. BFRE received a recommendation to provide additional capability to the reinforcement due to the increases in south boundaries. in NOA 2018/19 of ‘Do not start’ with East Anglia region. generation capacity in the East Anglia NOA 2019/20 giving a recommendation region. BPRE was recommended in NOA of ‘hold’ as it was found to be ‘optimal’ 2018/19 to ‘hold’, this year it was seen to but not ‘critical’. be ‘critical’ under three scenarios, NOA 145 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

5.2 Interconnection theory their access to cheaper generation 2. Create study cases: 3. Simulate European markets: Figure 5.1 Benefits of interconnection with more consumers. To test the effect of additional capacity Run all 30 study cases for each 2019 FES (page 61) for each market, 1 GW of interconnection for all European countries then calculate Producer welfare was added in each of the European SEW and constraint costs. Greater security of supply: Increased producer welfare due to markets (i.e. to each of the seven European Both markets can access increased levels increased revenue for generators in the connecting countries) to the base level The cases are run in our BID3 economic of generation to secure their energy needs. lower priced market, as generators can of interconnection. dispatch optimisation tool. It can now access more customers. simulate all European power markets Greater access to renewable energy: For each country’s additional simultaneously from the bottom up, Increased access to intermittent renewable Reduced producer welfare due to reduced interconnector, a number of zones and i.e. it can model individual power stations, generation, consequently displacing revenue for generators in the higher priced reinforcement combinations were studied. and balances supply and demand on an domestic non-renewable generation. market, as they are now competing against In total, 30 study cases were considered, hourly basis. cheaper overseas generation. with different combinations of country, Increased competition: GB connection zone and reinforcement. First, a dispatch, or unconstrained run is Increased access to cheaper generation Interconnector welfare In study cases where a reinforcement undertaken, so that supply meets demand and more consumers leads to increased Revenue for interconnector business upgrade is selected, an additional at each point in time, assuming the competition, allowing some participants income generated from selling capacity 1 GW of capability is added to the transmission network is capable of in both markets to benefit financially. across the interconnector. relevant boundary. sending power wherever it is needed, These benefits are measured as social i.e. unconstrained. economic welfare. 5.3 Methodology The 30 study cases are shown in table 5.2. Figure 5.3 Iterative process for Additional interconnection is modelled to Second, a re-dispatch, or constrained run 5.2 Interconnection theory interconnection optimisation connect in 2027, 2029 and 2032, in order is produced, that models constraints on Figure 5.2 Social Economic welfare (page 65) to understand the effects of varying the network, where generation is restricted (page 62) commissioning dates on SEW and in some areas of the country due to 1. Set base level of interconnection: attributable constraint costs. network capability, and hence generation Consumer welfare: The base level of interconnection is the is increased elsewhere to balance supply Increased consumer welfare due to total capacity GB has with each of the and demand. This duty is performed reduced prices in the higher priced market, seven studied markets at the start of the by the SO at minimum cost, and as suppliers have increased access to iteration. This totalled 13.6 GW, as shown BID3 approximates this activity in cheap renewable generation. in table 5.1. All interconnectors that are the re-dispatch run. in the NOA IC base case are included Reduced consumer welfare due to in each scenario within the model. increased prices for consumers in the cheaper market, as they now share NOA 146 2019/20 Appendix F Further information

4. Calculate net benefit of each combination: Calculate PV = SEW – CAPEX – constraint costs for each option of country, GB connection zone, reinforcement and connecting year for each scenario, where: PV = result in present value terms, i.e. as costs are occurred across a range of years, discounting is employed to standardise each cost in present value SEW = social economic welfare CAPEX = capital costs for interconnector cable, converter station and network reinforcement, if included within the relevant option Constraint costs = the constraint costs incurred in ensuring all boundary constraints are met. 5. Identify optimal solution: For each FES, identify which option has the highest PV across three time periods (interconnectors commissioning in 2027, 2029 and 2032). 6. Update base level of interconnection: Add optimal solution to base level of interconnection for each FES and repeat steps 3 to 6. NOA 147 2019/20 Appendix F Index of links

Executive summary 2.1 Introduction and the NOA process 3.1 Introduction 4.2 Interpretation of the NOA outcomes Page 3 Page 15 Page 23 Page 35 NOA report methodology NOA methodology website ETYS report Ofgem https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/149636/ https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/network- https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/157451/ https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/ download options-assessment-noa download statutory-consultation-modify-standard-condition-c27- electricity-transmission-licence-0 1.1 Introduction NOA report methodology NOA report methodology Page 9 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/149636/ https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/149636/ 4.3 The NOA outcomes Security and Quality of Supply Standard download download Page 45 (SQSS) Ofgem website https://www.nationalgrideso.com/codes/security-and- 2.2 The NOA process Licence condition C27 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/electricity/transmission- quality-supply-standards Page 18 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2018/01/ networks/critical-investments/strategic-wider-works/ NOA report methodology c27_consultation.pdf scottish-island-links Ten-Year Network Development Plan https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/149636/ (TYNDP) download 3.3 The options 5.3 Methodology https://tyndp.entsoe.eu Page 27 Page 70 2.3 Economic analysis theory NOA report methodology NGESO Interconnector Register 1.5 What’s new? Page 19 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/105741/ https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/159826/ Page 13 NOA report methodology download download SRF website https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/149636/ https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/electricity- download Page 29 Page 73 ten-year-statement-etys#tab-8 Pathfinding projects ACER document 2.4 How the NOA connects to the SWW https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/network- http://www.acer.europa.eu/Official_documents/Acts_of_ Network Development Roadmap process options-assessment-noa/network-development-roadmap the_Agency/Publication/UIC%20Report%20%20-%20 webpage Page 20 Electricity%20infrastructure.pdf https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/network- NOA report methodology Licence condition C27 options-assessment-noa/network-development-roadmap https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/105741/ https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2018/01/ 5.5 NOA IC, TYNDP and PCIs download c27_consultation.pdf Page 89 System Operability Framework Integrated Offshore Transmission ENTSO-E’s 2018 Ten Year Network https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/system- Previous NOA publications Development Plan (TYNDP) package operability-framework-sof https://www.nationalgrideso.com/publications/network- Project https://tyndp.entsoe.eu/tyndp2018/projects/projects options-assessment-noa#tab-2 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/125331/ ESO data hub download https://data.nationalgrideso.com/ NOA 148 2019/20 Disclaimer

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