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GB Wholesale Market Summary February 2021

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GB Wholesale Market Summary February 2021 GB Wholesale Market Summary February 2021 Published March 2021 1. A combination of lower fuel prices and demand caused the monthly average power price in E x e c u t i v e February 2021 to fall to £52.9/MWh - an £18.3/MWh (or 26%) decrease from January 2021. However, this is still a year-on-year increase of £23.4/MWh (or 79%). See slides 5, 6, and 7. 2. February saw continued periods of tight system margins due to a combination of weather-related S u m m a r y factors and limited thermal generator availability. Consequently, these periods saw wholesale prices in excess of £300/MWh. See slide 5. 3. Driven by higher temperatures, the monthly transmission power demand in February fell by 3.8 TWh (or 15%) decrease relative to January, while the share of low carbon generation rose by 12 p.p. to 63% of total generation in February. See slides 10 and 11. 4. Monthly thermal generation in February decreased by 4.4 TWh relative to January as demand fell, and renewables output increased. Consequently, carbon emissions decreased by 2.1 MtCO2e (or 36%) compared to January. See slides 11 and 14. 5. Profitability of wind assets in February remained similar to January as the notable decrease in wind capture prices (£14.5/MWh or 23% relative to January) was mitigated by load factors increasing by 14 p.p. (or to a monthly average of 51%). See slides 20 and 22. 2 About Aurora Aurora offers power market forecasts and market intelligence spanning Europe’s key markets & Australia Comprehensive Power Power Market Bespoke Market Services Forecast Reports forecasts Power market Power market Aurora can provide ✓ forecast reports ✓ forecast reports ✓ power market forecasts upon Forecast data in Forecast data in request ✓ Excel ✓ Excel Global energy ✓ Analyst support ✓ market forecast reports Strategic insight ✓ reports Regular subscriber ✓ group meetings ✓ Bilateral workshops ✓ Analyst support Source: Aurora Energy Research 3 Agenda I. System performance II. Company performance (available to subscribers only) III. Plant performance 4 1 System performance Half-hourly APX spot price for February 1 APX spot price Monthly average price in February 2021: £/MWh £52.91/MWh 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 01-Feb 08-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 01-Mar 1) Half-hourly APX is the volume-weighted reference price over that half-hour interval, as provided by APX Power UK Sources: Aurora Energy Research, Thomson Reuters 5 1 System performance Historic monthly average APX spot price Average APX spot price1, £/MWh 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 +79% 35 30 25 20 Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Average monthly spot price Annual average spot price 1) Average monthly APX is the average over the month of the volume-weighted reference prices for each half-hour interval. Sources: Aurora Energy Research, Thomson Reuters 6 1 System performance Historic fuel prices Gas, Coal and Carbon daily prices Gas/Coal price Carbon price £/MWh £/Tonne 30 56 52 48 44 40 20 36 32 28 24 20 10 16 12 8 4 0 0 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Gas Coal CO2 Sources: Aurora Energy Research, Thomson Reuters 7 1 System performance Half-hourly spot prices against half-hourly system margins for February APX spot price1, £/MWh 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 10,000 20,000 30,000 Margins2, MW 1) Half-hourly APX is the volume-weighted reference price over that half-hour interval, as provided by APX Power UK. 2) Margins are calculated as the difference between MEL and Demand for each half-hour period. Demand data presented here is Initial Transmission System Demand Out-Turn, and does not include embedded demand. MEL is calculated as the sum of all transmission BM units reporting MEL values in each half-hour. Where a BMU gives multiple values in a half-hour, only the least is taken. Sources: Elexon, National Grid, Thomson Reuters, Aurora Energy Research 8 1 System performance Daily February max and min demand Relative to historic February max and min demand since 20101 Demand2, GW 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su Daily range Historic maximum/minimum 1) Data from previous years is matched to the nearest weekday within the current month, to maintain the weekly demand pattern. 2) Demand data presented here is Initial Transmission System Demand Out-Turn, and does not include embedded demand. Sources: National Grid, Aurora Energy Research 9 1 System performance Monthly historical demand on the transmission system Total demand1, TWh 34 32 30 28 26 24 -4% 22 20 18 16 Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Total monthly demand Annual average demand 1) Demand data presented here is Initial Transmission System Demand Out-Turn, and includes station transformer load, pumped storage demand and interconnector demand, but does not include embedded demand. Sources: National Grid, Aurora Energy Research 10 1 System performance Monthly fuel mix breakdown Output1 TWh 0.5 21.0 22 0.6 2% 20 1.7 3% 1.8 8% 18 3.3 9% 16 16% 14 3.7 12 17% 10 3.9 100% 8 19% 6 5.5 4 26% 2 0 CCGT Offshore Onshore Wind Nuclear Other Other fossil3 Coal Solar Total Wind renewables2 Load factor, % 30 59 43 51 52 28 17 6 1) Includes outputs from generators registered as BM Units as well as embedded wind and solar PV assets. All numbers are rounded to 0.1 TWh which means that subtotals may not sum to total value. 2) Other fossil includes oil, CHP-CCGT and OCGT. 3) Other renewables includes biomass and hydro. Sources: Elexon, Sheffield Solar, National Grid, Aurora Energy Research 11 1 System performance Historical fuel mix breakdown Output1 % of total 100% 2% 6% 7% 8% 6% 10% 90% 7% 6% 12% 7% 19% 9% 22% 10% 5% 5% 80% 19% 5% 6% 13% 22% 7% 4% 30% 17% 38% 8% 19% 70% 17% 7% 7% 19% 9% 60% 10% 29% 8% 31% 9% 50% 35% 48% 7% 46% 42% 40% 38% 35% 34% 36% 22% 19% 26% 30% 14% 11% 20% 3% 4% 3% 10% 21% 20% 19% 20% 21% 21% 22% 21% 19% 18% 18% 16% 0% Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- Feb- 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Nuclear Coal CCGT Other fossil2 Other renewables3 Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Solar 1) Includes outputs from generators registered as BM Units as well as embedded wind and solar PV. 2) Other fossil includes oil, CHP-CCGT and OCGT. 3) Other renewables includes biomass and hydro. Sources: Elexon, Sheffield Solar, National Grid, Aurora Energy Research 12 1 System performance Monthly interconnector flow duration curve Flow in each half-hour for GB interconnectors Flow1, MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 Time Half-hours I/C France I/C Netherlands I/C N. Ireland I/C Rep. Ireland I/C Belgium 1) Positive flow is imports into GB, negative flow is exports. Sources: Elexon, National Grid, Aurora Energy Research 13 1 System performance Monthly emissions by technology Emissions1 Carbon intensity MtCO2e gCO2e/kWh 7 280 +14% 6 5.8 240 5 4.6 200 3.9 4 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 160 3.5 3.6 3.4 3 2.9 120 2.4 2.1 2 80 1 40 0 0 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Biomass Other fossil2 CCGT Coal System carbon intensity 1) Please refer to Appendix for details of methodology employed to calculate emission amounts. Includes all Balancing Mechanism plants. 2) Other fossil includes oil, OCGT and gas CHP-CCGT. Sources: Elexon, Ofgem, Aurora Energy Research 14 Agenda I. System performance II. Company performance (available to subscribers only) III. Plant performance 15 Agenda I. System performance II. Company performance (available to subscribers only) III. Plant performance 16 3 Plant Performance Plant utilisation – load factors by plant Load factor1 Column width % reflects capacity 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Ø 39 30 20 10 0 -10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 Capacity, GW Biomass Coal Hydro Nuclear Offshore Wind Pumped Storage CCGT Gas CHP-CCGT Interconnector OCGT Onshore Wind Solar 1) Represents 60 plants with highest capacity according to the Balancing Mechanism (BM) database, as well as aggregated data for wind and solar. Capacity of each plant represents the sum of capacities of all its generators that have been active at least once in the last three months. Please refer to Appendix for a detailed description of the data used and categories presented Sources: Aurora Energy Research, Elexon, BEIS 17 3 Plant Performance CCGT plant utilisation – by plant Full load hours1 Column width % of total for the period reflects capacity 100 90 89.4 80 70 66.0 60 51.5 47.4 50 50.0 44.8 40.9 39.9 39.4 40 38.0 33.7 30 26.8 11.9 22.4 21.1 20.4 17.3 16.3 20 0.0 13.9 11.8 10.6 10.4 0.0 0.0 10 7.4 3.9 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 33 19 25 30 32 31 Calon Centrica Drax EDF EPH ESB Intergen Munich Re RWE SSE Uniper Capacity, Plant Names: 1.
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