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Hezbollah's Syrian Quagmire
Hezbollah’s Syrian Quagmire BY MATTHEW LEVITT ezbollah – Lebanon’s Party of God – is many things. It is one of the dominant political parties in Lebanon, as well as a social and religious movement catering first and fore- Hmost (though not exclusively) to Lebanon’s Shi’a community. Hezbollah is also Lebanon’s largest militia, the only one to maintain its weapons and rebrand its armed elements as an “Islamic resistance” in response to the terms of the Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war and called for all militias to disarm.1 While the various wings of the group are intended to complement one another, the reality is often messier. In part, that has to do with compartmen- talization of the group’s covert activities. But it is also a factor of the group’s multiple identities – Lebanese, pan-Shi’a, pro-Iranian – and the group’s multiple and sometimes competing goals tied to these different identities. Hezbollah insists that it is Lebanese first, but in fact, it is an organization that always acts out of its self-interests above its purported Lebanese interests. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Hezbollah also has an “expansive global network” that “is sending money and operatives to carry out terrorist attacks around the world.”2 Over the past few years, a series of events has exposed some of Hezbollah’s covert and militant enterprises in the region and around the world, challenging the group’s standing at home and abroad. Hezbollah operatives have been indicted for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in The Hague,3 arrested on charges of plotting attacks in Nigeria,4 and convicted on similar charges in Thailand and Cyprus.5 Hezbollah’s criminal enterprises, including drug running and money laundering from South America to Africa to the Middle East, have been targeted by law enforcement and regulatory agen- cies. -
Iran's Gray Zone Strategy
Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy Cornerstone of its Asymmetric Way of War By Michael Eisenstadt* ince the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has distinguished itself (along with Russia and China) as one of the world’s foremost “gray zone” actors.1 For nearly four decades, however, the United States has struggled to respond effectively to this asymmetric “way of war.” Washington has often Streated Tehran with caution and granted it significant leeway in the conduct of its gray zone activities due to fears that U.S. pushback would lead to “all-out” war—fears that the Islamic Republic actively encourages. Yet, the very purpose of this modus operandi is to enable Iran to pursue its interests and advance its anti-status quo agenda while avoiding escalation that could lead to a wider conflict. Because of the potentially high costs of war—especially in a proliferated world—gray zone conflicts are likely to become increasingly common in the years to come. For this reason, it is more important than ever for the United States to understand the logic underpinning these types of activities, in all their manifestations. Gray Zone, Asymmetric, and Hybrid “Ways of War” in Iran’s Strategy Gray zone warfare, asymmetric warfare, and hybrid warfare are terms that are often used interchangeably, but they refer neither to discrete forms of warfare, nor should they be used interchangeably—as they often (incor- rectly) are. Rather, these terms refer to that aspect of strategy that concerns how states employ ways and means to achieve national security policy ends.2 Means refer to the diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and cyber instruments of national power; ways describe how these means are employed to achieve the ends of strategy. -
Modernization and Political Parties: a Case Study of the Hashemi Rafsanjani Administration
Modernization and Political Parties: A Case Study of the Hashemi Rafsanjani Administration * Prof. Dr. Elaheh Koolaee Professor of Regional Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. ** Dr. Yousef Mazarei PhD of Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Abstract This paper aims to explore the emergence of a political and social phenomenon, namely political parties, during a specific period in the history of contemporary Iran, in order to move beyond simple analyses and present a deeper and more accurate understanding of political parties in Iran. The question thatthis paper aims to answer pertains to the emergence (ISJ) Studies / Journal No. International of the Executives of the Construction of Iran Party (Kargozaran-e Sazandegi-e Iran) and the role of the Hashemi Rafsanjani administration’s modernization efforts. In order to do so, among three main theories, modernization theory has been selected as the theoretical framework. The paper also uses secondary data analysis as its methodology. In new theories of modernization, instead of focusing on ‘ideal types’, the focus is shifted toward historical features specific to each society. The findings of this research demonstrate that there is a direct link between the HashemiRafsaniani administration’s modernizations and the emergence of 57 / the Executives of the Construction of Iran Party (Kargozaran Party). This V administration’s modernization efforts caused a significant shift in Iran’s development indexes, which resulted in the revival of Iran’s new middle class and provided a basis for the foundation of Kargozaran Party and its victories in subsequent elections. The party became the major proponent of political and economic reform, social liberties, and cultural tolerance in Iran’s political arena. -
Guardian Politics in Iran: a Comparative Inquiry Into the Dynamics of Regime Survival
GUARDIAN POLITICS IN IRAN: A COMPARATIVE INQUIRY INTO THE DYNAMICS OF REGIME SURVIVAL A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Payam Mohseni, M.A. Washington, DC June 22, 2012 Copyright 2012 by Payam Mohseni All Rights Reserved ii GUARDIAN POLITICS IN IRAN: A COMPARATIVE INQUIRY INTO THE DYNAMICS OF REGIME SURVIVAL Payam Mohseni, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Daniel Brumberg, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated a singular institutional resiliency that has been absent in other countries where “colored revolutions” have succeeded in overturning incumbents, such as Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova, or where popular uprisings like the current Arab Spring have brought down despots or upended authoritarian political landscapes, including Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and even Syria. Moreover, it has accomplished this feat without a ruling political party, considered by most scholars to be the key to stable authoritarianism. Why has the Iranian political system proven so durable? Moreover, can the explanation for such durability advance a more deductive science of authoritarian rule? My dissertation places Iran within the context of guardian regimes—or hybrid regimes with ideological military, clerical or monarchical institutions steeped in the politics of the state, such as Turkey and Thailand—to explain the durability of unstable polities that should be theoretically prone to collapse. “Hybrid” regimes that combine competitive elections with nondemocratic forms of rule have proven to be highly volatile and their average longevity is significantly shorter than that of other regime types. -
Surprise, Intelligence Failure, and Mass Casualty Terrorism
SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM by Thomas E. Copeland B.A. Political Science, Geneva College, 1991 M.P.I.A., University of Pittsburgh, 1992 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Thomas E. Copeland It was defended on April 12, 2006 and approved by Davis Bobrow, Ph.D. Donald Goldstein, Ph.D. Dennis Gormley Phil Williams, Ph.D. Dissertation Director ii © 2006 Thomas E. Copeland iii SURPRISE, INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, AND MASS CASUALTY TERRORISM Thomas E. Copeland, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2006 This study aims to evaluate whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. This study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. -
Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31:169–181, 2008 Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1057-610X print / 1521-0731 online DOI: 10.1080/10576100701878424 Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction DANIEL BYMAN Center for Peace and Security Studies Georgetown University Washington, DC, USA and Saban Center for Middle East Policy Brookings Institution Washington, DC, USA This article reviews Iran’s past and current use of terrorism and assesses why U.S. attempts to halt Iran’s efforts have met with little success. With this assessment in mind, it argues that Iran is not likely transfer chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons to terrorist groups for several reasons. First, providing terrorists with such unconventional Downloaded By: [Georgetown University] At: 15:20 19 March 2008 weapons offers Iran few tactical advantages as these groups are able to operate effectively with existing methods and weapons. Second, Iran has become more cautious in its backing of terrorists in recent years. And third, Tehran is highly aware that any major escalation in its support for terrorism would incur U.S. wrath and international condemnation. The article concludes by offering recommendations for decreasing Iran’s support for terrorism. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been one of the world’s most active sponsors of terrorism. Tehran has armed, trained, financed, inspired, organized, and otherwise supported dozens of violent groups over the years.1 Iran has backed not only groups in its Persian Gulf neighborhood, but also terrorists and radicals in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Bosnia, the Philippines, and elsewhere.2 This support remains strong even today: the U.S. -
U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East
U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST JAMES F. JEFFREY MICHAEL EISENSTADT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY WWW.WASHINGTONINSTITUTE.ORG The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. Policy Focus 143, April 2016 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing fromthe publisher. ©2016 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 Design: 1000colors Photo: An F-16 from the Egyptian Air Force prepares to make contact with a KC-135 from the 336th ARS during in-flight refueling training. (USAF photo by Staff Sgt. Amy Abbott) Contents Acknowledgments V I. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS 1 James F. Jeffrey 1. Introduction to Part I 3 2. Basic Principles 5 3. U.S. Strategy in the Middle East 8 4. U.S. Military Engagement 19 5. Conclusion 37 Notes, Part I 39 II. RETHINKING U.S. MILITARY STRATEGY 47 Michael Eisenstadt 6. Introduction to Part II 49 7. American Sisyphus: Impact of the Middle Eastern Operational Environment 52 8. Disjointed Strategy: Aligning Ways, Means, and Ends 58 9. -
The Khobar Towers Bombing Incident
PRESS RELEASE House National Security Committee Floyd D. Spence, Chairman Contact: Maureen Cragin FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Ryan Vaart August 14, 1996 (202) 225-2539 STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN FLOYD D. SPENCE ON THE REPORT ON THE BOMBING OF KHOBAR TOWERS “In the wake of the June 25 bombing of the American compound at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, the House Committee on National Security sent a delegation of professional staff members to Saudi Arabia to conduct a preliminary investigation of the incident. “Although the professionalism and courage of the men and women who suffered this terrible disaster is apparent and should be a source of pride for all Americans, the bombing raises issues of intelligence failures and operational deficiencies that at least suggest that military leaders and policymakers were unaware of the potential risks that U.S. service personnel faced in Saudi Arabia. “First, as the report indicates, the performance of the troops living in Khobar Towers and stationed in the Dhahran area was superb. As a result of the rapid reaction of the Air Force Special Police who observed the bomb-laden truck and immediately began to evacuate the building, as well as the efforts of doctors, medical personnel and soldiers to save lives, a much larger tragedy was almost certainly averted. “But individual professionalism and heroism during the bombing cannot obscure larger problems that may have contributed to the unpreparedness of U.S. troops in the face of a serious terrorist threat. Intelligence failures left the military personnel in Khobar Towers, as well as the 4404th wing’s leaders, largely unaware of the magnitude of the threat they faced. -
Hizbullah Under Fire in Syria | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / Articles & Op-Eds Hizbullah Under Fire in Syria by Matthew Levitt, Nadav Pollak Jun 9, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Matthew Levitt Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. Nadav Pollak Nadav Pollak is a former Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation fellow at The Washington Institute. Articles & Testimony Last month's assassination of a senior Hizbullah commander, apparently by Syrian rebel groups, demonstrates the growing threat the organization faces from fellow Arabs and Muslims. he death of senior Hizbullah commander Mustafa Badreddine in Syria in May left the group reeling, but not for T the reason most people think. True, it lost an especially qualified commander with a unique pedigree as the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, with whom Badreddine plotted devastating terror attacks going back to the Beirut bombings in the 1980s. And, at the time of his death, Badreddine was dual-hatted as the commander of both the group's international terrorist network (the Islamic Jihad Organisation or External Security Organisation) and its significant military deployment in Syria. The loss of such a senior and seasoned commander is no small setback for Hizbullah. But the real reason Badreddine's death has Hizbullah on edge is not the loss of the man, per se, but the fact that the group's arch enemy, Israel, was seemingly not responsible. Hizbullah, it appears, now has more immediate enemies than Israel -- and that has the self-described "resistance" organisation tied up in knots. -
Iran and the Arab World
e Arab Iti)rld acldresse ,, 111,- most ,Ii Nil and •,10.1 40,00 .1 Middle-East politics, With .1 1,0011;100n tkk I , tiro 1 Gulf states combined, lit rill 0141 t,,i„ ()tied leadership position in th,. , I4II lit sertion, Iran must be a part 01 ,110 hamt k oh k e Middle East in general, `i , i lean, it eneral refusal to disctiss its hoe num, taks through this barrier 01 so, it„ III1 .1,k,h, tions with Syria, 1,ebankm, 11,al, 1 1.N ',midi A1,11.1. 1 . ,110 the Gulf Cooperation Count 11 I he. 1 ,, 1111 , 111 ,- )lating the New World ()Ilk' 11) ill. 111(1 is (chard W. Runlet. Professor of Ilihtoly,, t'olti ^ 10,4 I 1 1 1%1 1 , Edited by Hooshang Amirahmadi ,b relations arc crucial tor understanding the kJaileMpOtaty e Middle East. To date, no monograph has nettled this iMptif and Nader Entessar despite the Iran--Iraq war, Iran's role in the Lehrunin, and art for radical Islamic Retires in the Atah 0,111 ban anti the admirably fills this lacuna. In a serot irn 1•,,1 essio Mat imp act of ideology, United States poll, ‘. I.-Imams with ates on Iranian•Arab relations, dies ‘,,Inint. Iii 4 11111 at the prospects for conflict and sulhons in OW / , ‘!■ .1, SO / 1 + 4 n 'ma Iran and the rid is must reading 1 / a those seek nit,' .1 niil‘ 11) 1111 1 1 1 1/1:11' , 1 \ g of Middle East politics.' ■,rie Davis, Professor of Political St is nc r, Rutyci. -
UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations
UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Indeterminate Governmentality: Neoliberal Politics in Revolutionary Iran, 1968-1979 Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fm253hw Author Davari, Arash Publication Date 2016 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Indeterminate Governmentality: Neoliberal Politics in Revolutionary Iran, 1968-1979 A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Arash Davari 2016 ã Copyright by Arash Davari 2016 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Indeterminate Governmentality: Neoliberal Politics in Revolutionary Iran, 1968-1979 by Arash Davari Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2016 Professor Kirstie M. McClure, Co-Chair Professor Mark Q. Sawyer, Co-Chair This dissertation situates the emergence of revolutionary resistance in Pahlavi Iran in parallel with the emergence of neoliberal political rationality in the Middle East. In the process, it theorizes neoliberalism anew. Through an engagement with archives of social practice in Iran and its diaspora between 1968 and 1979, neoliberalism is presented as a political rationality that involves rhetorical disavowal at root ¾ what I refer to as indeterminate governmentality. The study employs parallelism as a theoretical construct reflecting the logic of the revolutionary transformation and periodic shift at hand. The disavowals considered include renderings of a collective on individualist terms; formations of solidarity through empathy; and orientations toward order in the production of disorder. The archival material considered includes state documents; activist records, ephemera, and publications; theoretical texts; literature; popular cinema; periodicals; and ethnographic interviews. -
US Foreign Policy and Its Perspectives on Revolutionary Iran
A Fleeting, Forgotten, Modus Vivendi: U.S. Foreign Policy and its Perspectives on Revolutionary Iran Before the Hostage Crisis of 1979 By Nathan Eckman Senior Thesis Spring 2018 Columbia University Department of History Seminar Advisor: Matthew Connelly Faculty Advisor: Peter Awn Table of Contents 2 Preface & Acknowledgments 3 Introduction 11 Chapter One: America, The Arbiter January – December, 1978 25 Chapter Two: “The Islamic Movement Will Squander” January – April, 1979 42 Chapter Three: Dawn in Qom, Dusk in Tehran May – November, 1979 54 Conclusion 60 Bibliography Eckman 1 Preface & Acknowledgments Four years ago I was in the Middle East wearing Marine Corps combat utilities. The men I trained beside, the seas and straits my ship traveled through, and the lands my platoon traversed illuminated the complexity and richness of the Middle East as a whole. I became fascinated with the region’s history and the United States’ involvement in it. It was also then that I decided to study the region whenever and wherever I went to school. Even then, due in part to its mysterious image and rogue-classification, I knew Iran must be the topic of my studies. So to begin, I must thank Columbia University and its History Department for providing me the opportunity to make my intellectual aspirations a reality. My years at this institution have challenged me on nearly every front and simultaneously given me the autonomy to find answers for myself. This, of course, is possible only because of the people that are the fabric of this great institution. It is tempting to list every man and woman who helped me along this journey.