Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited Show’S On; New Season Begins
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Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited Show’s on; new season begins Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Media & Entertainment Sharekhan code: ZEEL Company Update Update Stock 3R MATRIX + = - Summary We re-initiate coverage on Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL) with a Right Sector (RS) ü Buy rating with a PT of Rs. 275, considering better ad growth outlook and reducing balance sheet concerns Right Quality (RQ) ü Q3FY21 numbers were strong; expect ZEEL to clock revenue/net profit growth of 18%/22% over FY21-FY23E. Right Valuation (RV) ü Management is focusing on rebuilding investor confidence by 1) improving disclosures, 2) introducing polices and 3) strengthening board composition. + Positive = Neutral - Negative We believe ZEE5 is one of the leading digital platforms, centered on regional content and would continue to leverage its reach further led by hyperlocal content. We re-initiate coverage on Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited (ZEEL) with a Buy Reco/View rating considering strong results for Q3FY2021, improving outlook for advertisement revenue, sharp recovery of viewership share across genres, marginally lower inventories Reco: Buy q-o-q, increase in net cash position for last three consecutive quarters, receivables CMP: Rs. 215 from Dish TV as per schedule, recovery of offshore investments and potential to make strong inroads into tier-2-3 markets though its digital platform ZEE5. Considering its Price Target: Rs. 275 patchy past (including both internal and external factors), the management is focused on rebuilding investor confidence since the beginning of FY2021 with 1) improved á Upgrade Maintain â Downgrade disclosures (quarterly balance sheet including break-up of a content inventory and content advances and key financials for ZEE5) and 2) introducing polices pertaining to treasury management, investments and related party dealings. Further, the company has strengthened its board composition with the appointment of R Gopalan as Chairman Company details of the Board post resignation of Mr. Subhash Chandra. The company’s balance sheet Market cap: Rs. 20,680 cr and operational performance have improved over last three quarters with reduction in inventories, improvement in net cash position, recovery in advertisement demand, rise 52-week high/low: Rs. 261 / 114 in viewership share and strong performance in subscription revenues. We believe that ZEEL has taken steps in right direction. ZEE5 is one of the leading digital platform which NSE volume: 292 lakh primarily focuses on regional content, would continue to leverage its reach further (No of shares) on the back of hyperlocal content. In Q3FY2021, the management has guided higher BSE code: 505537 investments in movie production business, with 30-40 movies per year versus 10 movies currently, which implies a decline in profitability and cash generation. We estimate NSE code: ZEEL revenue and earnings would grow at a 18% and 22% CAGR over FY2021-23E as ad spends improve, new channels are launched and digital content on ZEE5 is monetised. Free float: 92.2 cr Our Call (No of shares) Valuation: ZEE5 holds key to re-rating, risk-reward favourable: With improving disclosures, change in board structure and reducing inventory and receivables, we believe that balance sheet concerns have gradually eased. Given lot of headroom for growth in Shareholding (%) the broadcasting business (30-35% untapped TV penetration), improving ad revenue outlook, ramp-up of its movie business and monetization of digital content, we expect Promoters 4.0 the company to deliver a healthy 22% CAGR in adjusted net profit over FY2021-FY2023E. The stock is currently trading at a reasonable valuation at 13x/12x of FY2022E/FY2023E FII 76.5 earnings, which is at a 60% discount to the 10-year average 1-year forward PE. We believe DII 13.8 ZEE5 could surprise positively given its strong focus on regional content, which has been dominating the overall streaming growth at present. We re-initiate our coverage on ZEEL Others 5.8 with a Buy rating, with a PT of Rs. 275. Key Risks 1) A slowdown in economy leading to lower demand and subdued realisation for Price chart advertisement revenue stream, 2) delay in monetisation benefit from digitisation and a 325 faster-than-expected content costs could affect earnings, 3) potential ownership change 275 at ZEEL as promoters own less than 5%. 225 175 Valuations (Consolidated) Rs cr 125 Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E 75 Revenues 7,933.9 8,129.9 7,403.5 9,327.5 10,255.0 20 20 20 21 - - - - OPM (%) 32.3 20.1 24.4 26.2 26.0 Jun Oct Feb Feb Adjusted PAT 1,541.7 501.8 1,190.4 1,598.1 1,765.1 % YoY growth 14.1 -67.4 137.2 34.3 10.5 Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 16.1 5.2 12.4 16.6 18.4 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m P/E (x) 13.4 41.2 17.4 13.0 11.7 P/B (x) 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 Absolute xx xx xx xx EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 12.7 9.2 6.1 5.2 Relative to xx xx xx xx RoNW (%) 17.3 5.4 11.6 13.9 13.8 Sensex RoCE (%) 24.0 13.4 14.5 18.4 18.0 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates February 05, 2021 1 Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Strong macro improvement would benefit broadcasters Post a 3% y-o-y decline in ad volumes (in million seconds) on televisions in 2020, there has been a strong ad volumes growth recovery of 23% y-o-y to 133 mn seconds in January 2021. During H12020, television ad volumes were severely impacted due to the COVID-19 outbreak, strict nationwide lockdowns, lower ad spends by enterprises to maintain liquidity and shutting down of businesses. With fresh content back to television screens and the start of the Indian Premier League (IPL), television ad volumes recovered strongly in the H22020 (up 34% versus H1), which indicates television continues to be the preferred screen of the household. Being one the leading broadcasters with strong and diversified portfolios of channels, we believe ZEEL would be major beneficial from the improved outlook of ad spends. TV ad volumes up 23% in January Ad volumes in million seconds by Genre 140 133 25% 40 36 38 40% 35 32 35% 35% 120 112 108 23% 31 20% 29 30 31% 30% 100 28% 15% 24 25 25% 80 23% 10% 20 20% 18% 16 in in seconds million in in seconds million 60 15 13 15% 5% 40 10 10% 0% 3.24.3 20 -3% 5 5% 0 -5% 0 0% Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 GEC News Movies Music Kids Ad volume (mn seconds) Growth (%) Jan.20 Jan.21 Growth (%) Source: BARC *excludes spots placed by association, social ads and cultural organisation, ads by NGOs and fillers TV advertising to remain strong As per a KPMG report, the Indian media and entertainment (M&E) industry growth would be significantly impacted in FY2021 owing to a nationwide lockdown restrictions owing to the pandemic, slowdown in ad spends, and breaking down of content supply chains. However, the M&E sector is expected to bounce back in FY2022 rising 33.1% y-o-y to reach a size of Rs. 1.86 trillion. The TV segment is expected to bounce back 8.6% y-o-y in FY2022 on the back of strong 19% growth in ad revenue and a 4% growth in subscription revenues. The pandemic has accelerated video consumption on both television and smartphone as consumers spent more time at home. Further, OTT players especially with quality original and local content expanded their presence to tier-2-3 cities. Digital & OTT revenue (Rs. Bn) and growth (%) TV revenue (Rs. Bn) and growth (%) 400 50% 900 15% 338 800 350 43% 41% 40% 9% 10% 300 700 9% 10% 9% 778 254 8% 769 600 714 32% 33% 708 250 218 30% 652 5% 500 200 173 26% 596 in Rs. bn in Rs. in Rs. bn in Rs. 400 150 121 20% 0% 86 17% 300 100 10% 200 -5% 50 100 -9% 0 0% 0 -10% FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Revenue (Rs. Bn) Growth (%) Revenue (Rs. Bn) Growth (%) Source: KPMG February 05, 2021 2 Powered by the Sharekhan Stock Update Stock 3R Research Philosophy Update Stock Digital & OTT ad revenue (Rs. Bn) and growth (%) TV ad revenue (Rs. Bn) and growth (%) 350 50% 300 25% 262 258 292 251 20% 300 250 19% 40% 224 217 38% 203 15% 250 223 12% 35% 200 10% 10% 10% 32% 199 31% 30% 200 4% 5% 160 150 24% 0% in Rs. bn in Rs. in Rs. bn in Rs. 150 116 20% 100 -5% 86 100 12% -10% 10% 50 50 -15% -17% 0 -20% 0 0% FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Revenue (Rs. Bn) Growth (%) Revenue (Rs. Bn) Growth (%) Source: KPMG Daily average time spent on TV viewing remains constant in the last three years at 220-225 minutes and a 65-67% penetration of TV in total households provides a huge headroom for subscriber growth going ahead. % Households with TV cable connection 2019 2020 98.7% 99.3% 92.8% 92.7% 66.4% 67.2% % of% household India USA China ARPU ($ per M) $2.9 $75.9 $3.1 Source: BCG Analysis, SNL, Ovum database Hyperlocal OTT players likely to strong growth in subscription base going ahead According to a PwC report, overall OTT market in India is expected to grow at 21.8% CAGR reaching Rs.