TGC-11 Union Fenosa PGE Dong Fortum DEI KDHC, Korea Dong Energy WGC-1 Beijing DH Hafslund Edison TGC-14 Scottish&Southern ELCEN, Rom
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2 Agenda • Fortum today • Industry analysis • Summary 3 Fortum is today a mid-sized European power generator; Globally #4 in heat production Power generation Heat production Customers Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2008 TWh Largest global producers, 2008 Electricity customers in EU, 2007 TWh millions *) IES EDF ****) Enel E.ON Gazprom EDF Enel **) Dalkia RWE+Essent Fortum E.ON Gazprom Vattenfall RWE Vattenfall+Nuon RAO ES East Iberdrola Rosenergoatom ***) SUEK *****) Centrica GDF SUEZ Tatenergo Iberdrola Bashkirenergo DEI NNEGC Energoat. Onexim CEZ RusHydro EnBW Fortum Irkutskenergo IES TGC-2 Scottish&Southern CEZ Lukoil Electrabel Kievenergo EnBW Vattenfall Statkraft Minsk Energo Irkutskenergo TGC-11 Union Fenosa PGE Dong Fortum DEI KDHC, Korea Dong Energy WGC-1 Beijing DH Hafslund Edison TGC-14 Scottish&Southern ELCEN, Rom. 0 10203040 0100200300 400 500 600 0 20406080100120140 *incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, *** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13 **** incl: Endesa assets / customers pro forma, *****ncl. SPE Source Company information, Fortum analyses, 2008 figures pro forma, ** 2007 4 A solid track record of leveraging industry consolidation opportunities Separation of Länsivoima Länsivoima Elnova oil businesses 45% → 65% →100% 50% → 100% E.ON Finland 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 Neste IVO Divestment of Lenenergo Stora Birka Energi Gullspång Birka Energi Østfold shares 50% Fortum Kraft 50% → 100% 50% Stockholm Starting Shares in TGC-10 Skandinaviska TGC-1 Hafslund Elverk Gullspång Shares in District heat in Stockholm Lenenergo Poland 2003 → Energi Lenenergo shares 5 Our geographical presence today Nr 1 Heat Key figures 2009 Nordic countries Sales EUR 5.4 bn Operating profit EUR 1.8 bn Nr 1 Generation 48.1 TWh Distribution Personnel 11,500 Electricity sales 54.9 TWh Nr 2 Electricity Heat sales 18.0 TWh sales Distribution cust. 1.6 million Nr 3 Power Electricity cust. 1.2 million generation Russia OAO Fortum Power generation 16.0 TWh Heat sales 25.6 TWh Poland Heat sales 3.7 TWh TGC-1 (~25%)* Electricity sales 20 GWh Power generation ~6 TWh Heat sales ~8 TWh * 25% ownership in TGC-1, not consolidated Baltic countries Heat sales 1.3 TWh Electricity sales 0.1 TWh Distribution cust. 24,100 A portfolio of hydro, nuclear and energy efficient CHP* – CHP using mainly natural gas in Russia Fortum's power generation Fortum's heat production in 2009 in 2009 Hydro power 34% Nuclear power 33% Natural gas 61% Other 0% Peat 1% Other 3% Biomass 2% Peat 2% Coal 3% Oil 2% Waste 3% Heat pumps, Coal 12% Natural gas 27% electricity 7% Biomass fuels 10% Total generation 65.3 TWh Total production 48.8 TWh (Generation capacity 13,940 MW) (Production capacity 24,330 MW) * Combined heat and power production Specific carbonemissionsamongthelowest inEurope 1000 1200 g CO 200 400 600 800 0 2 /kWh electricity,2008 figures for all other companies include only European generation European only include companies other all for figures 155 g/kWh, total and g/kWh 41 were EU the in in 2009 emission specific Fortum’s Note: Changement climatique Fortum Électricité, et & EnerpressePWC 2009 Source: DEI Drax RWE CEZ Nuon EDP Scottish&Southern Vattenfall Enel Union Fenosa E.ON Dong Energy GDF Suez Europe Iberdrola PVO British Energy Industry average 350g/kWh EDF Fortum total 134 41 Verbund Fortum EU Statkraft A strong platform for growth in heat Largest global heat producers, 2008 TWh • Potential to leverage Fortum’s position IES Gazprom as the 4th biggest global heat producer Dalkia – Core competences in sustainability, Fortum Vattenf local market insight and relationships, RAO ES Eastall and continuous asset optimisation SUEK • Tackling the climate issue will increase Tatenergo Bashkirenergo the value of CHP as a cleaner, energy Onexim efficient alternative Irkutskenergo TGC-2 • Significant price and efficiency Lukoil Kievenergo Heat 48,5 TWh improvement potential across markets Minsk Energo Electricity 20,4 TWh – Making heat a proper business with TGC-11 Personnel 6,300 incentives to invest profitably Dong DH networks 200 KDHC, Korea • Substantial growth potential – with CHP plants 30 Beijing DH relatively low risk, high transparency TGC-14 ELCEN, Rom. and stability of future cash flows 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 9 A major player in Russia OAO Fortum (former TGC-10) • Operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas producing region, fleet mainly gas-fired CHP capacity • 16 TWh power generation, 26 TWh heat production in 2009; more than Fortum’s Nordic heat sales TGC-1 • Investment programme to add 85%, almost 2,400 MW to power generation capacity TGC-10OAO Fortum St. Petersburg Nyagan Khanty-Mansisk- Surgut Tobolsk TGC-1 Moscow Tyumen • Slightly over 25% ownership of territorial generating Chelyabinsk Kurgan company TGC-1 operating in north-west Russia, adjacent to Finnish boarder • ~6,250 MW power production capacity (~50% hydro), ~24 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat 10 Efficiency gains and new capacity to drive earnings in Russia • Efficiency improvement programme on track to deliver EUR 100 million EBITDA TGC-1 improvement in 2011 OAO Fortum St. Petersburg Nyagan • Relative to its size, Fortum will increase Surgut Tobolsk capacity more than any other Russian Moscow generating company Tyumen Chelyabinsk • Capacity payments for new capacity will 50% be the key driver for earnings 45% 40% New capacity, % of the total – 3-4x higher than prices for old capacity 35% – Payments cover 12-14% ROCE 30% requirement over the next 10 years 25% – First new units to start in early 2011 20% 15% • Additional improvement from spark spread 10% and heat business 5% – Relatively low gas transportation costs 0% TGC 7 TGC 1 TGC 8 TGC 6 – Making heat a proper business TGC 2 TGC 9 TGC 4 TGC 5 WGC 6 WGC 5 WGC 1 WGC 3 WGC 2 Fortum WGC 4 TGC 12 TGC 14 TGC 11 TGC 13 Inter RAO Inter Mosenergo 11 Russian power demand is recovering fast after the economic crisis Russian electricity demand forecast to 2020 • Russia is the fastest growing TWh market area for Fortum 1400 • Power demand in Russia 1300 recovered close to pre-crisis level 1200 • Most recent forecast places the long term demand growth estimate 1100 between the two official forecast 1000 scenarios 900 800 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Actual Conservative scenario, APBE Optimistic scenario, APBE Source: APBE = forecasting agency in charge of updating General Scheme 12 • Fortum today • Industry analysis • Summary 13 New capacity needed for new demand and retiring capacity replacements • Growing global energy demand will be increasingly fulfilled by electricity in the future • Substantial demand growth in the emerging markets • Retirements and moderate demand growth in the EU • Globally, 4,800 GW of new capacity needed by 2030 Russia North America Europe World total 52% 22% 25% 26% China 76% 6% 4% India 201 GW 40% 698 GW 712 GW 4,800 GW Primary energy demand, growth 2007-2030 Electricity consumption, growth 2007-2030 X Electricity capacity additions 2008-2030 (GW) 94% 177% 1,325 GW Source: IEA WEO 2009, reference scenario 116% 261% 14 455 GW Modest demand growth and less potential for new green field generation in the Nordic region Demand Supply • Continuing restructuring, • Wind and bio-CHP driven by gradually decreasing energy the EU RES targets intensity in industry • New Finnish nuclear and P upgrades in existing nuclear • Gradually increasing demand and hydro capacity response – smart metering • Decommissioning of old and smart grids capacity; driven by EU • Energy efficiency targets to emissions directives, aging affect demand for (electricity power fleet and economics in) heating • Increasing volatility from • Demand to recover fairly intermittent capacity (wind) rapidly back to pre-crisis level S/D • Long-term, distributed 2012-2014 energy solutions, small scale generation potentially increasing Development of cross-boarder transmission capacity, i.e. physical connections needed 15 Power market liberalization is still in its infancy, but will evolve driven by increasing need for private capital • Significant amounts of capital needed to meet the demand growth, Illustrative capacity retirement replacement needs and high cost renewables US targets (note: Some states, such as California, are more • Lack of public financing capacity to liberalizaed) Baltic countries drive the development of further France UK liberalized and competitive power China markets Nordic India – In emerging markets, substantial Russia investment need Japan Central Rest of Turkey Europe – In the developed world, especially (excl. France) the EU, stressed availability of the world East-Europe public financing due to the financial Latin Ukraine Iberia crises America • Public support mechanisms need to be “State Liberalized – Increasingly harmonized department” one-price market – Increasingly market based Power sector design Note: Circle size illustrates electricity consumption in 2007 (Source: IEA key world energy statistics) 16 Even the most liberalized markets remain partially regulated – and new capacity incentive mechanisms are being discussed RU: Capacity tariff / market with different Free energy-only UK: obligations for price levels ”security of supply” market proposed EE: consumer Partial capacity market still IE: capacity regulated -2012 mechanisms payments LV: state aid possible since 2005 Proposals for new for a new plant capacity elements LT: support for FR: proposal on back-up generation capacity obligation Major capacity with nuclear rights PL: measures in mechanism deficit regions Regulated market