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Data and Targeting in Canadian Politics: Are Provincial Parties Taking Advantage of the Latest Political Technology?

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Data and Targeting in Canadian Politics: Are Provincial Parties Taking Advantage of the Latest Political Technology? University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2017-12-18 Data and Targeting in Canadian Politics: Are Provincial Parties Taking Advantage of the Latest Political Technology? Carlile, Christopher Carlile, C. (2017). Data and Targeting in Canadian Politics: Are Provincial Parties Taking Advantage of the Latest Political Technology? (Unpublished master's thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/106230 master thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Data and Targeting in Canadian Politics: Are Provincial Parties Taking Advantage of the Latest Political Technology? by Christopher N. Carlile A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS GRADUATE PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE CALGARY, ALBERTA DECEMBER, 2017 © Christopher N. Carlile, 2017 Abstract Recent decades have seen dramatic advances in information and communication technology, allowing political campaigns to refine data and target voters in unprecedented ways. However, many of the most sophisticated targeting techniques are absent from Canadian politics. This thesis asks: to what extent are Canadian provincial political parties using advanced database assisted targeting and analytics, and what factors may be affecting their ability to do so? To answer this question, this thesis first determines the most advanced capabilities of data and targeting in political campaigns by analysing the most sophisticated example seen to date: the 2012 Obama for America Presidential Campaign. This thesis then interviews personnel from four different Canadian provincial political parties: The BC Liberal Party, the Alberta New Democratic Party, the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party, and the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. These case study interviews explore the extent of Canadian parties’ database and targeting operations, as well as what factors may be stopping them from using data driven targeting to its fullest extent. These interviews show that the two major factors inhibiting advanced data driven targeting campaigns in Canada are a lack of sufficient data due to privacy law, and the small scale of single member plurality election campaigns. The most significant finding is that Canadian privacy law prohibits companies from selling private data necessary to create the databases that fuel the most advanced targeting techniques. Therefore, as long as Canadian privacy law remains this way, it is unlikely that Canadian politics will see the most advanced database assisted targeting and analytics in campaigns. i Preface This thesis is original, unpublished, independent work by Chris Carlile. The interviews in Chapters four and five are covered by study ID REB15-1773, issued by the University of Calgary Conjoint Faculties Research Ethics Board for the project: “The use of Databases in Election Campaigns: how are Canadian campaigns taking advantage of advance databasing techniques that have been used by notable campaigns in the US, such as the Obama 2012 Presidential campaign?” The information in this thesis comes from academic and current affairs research, as well as from interviews with personnel from Canadian provincial political parties. ii Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................ i Preface .............................................................................................................................ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ iii Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 Methods, Definitions and Assumptions ........................................................................ 6 Chapter 2: A History of Campaigning ............................................................................ 12 Election Campaigns in Context .................................................................................. 15 Chapter 3: Obama for America 2012............................................................................. 17 Emails and Messaging ............................................................................................... 18 The Air War: Targeting Political Advertising ............................................................... 19 Creating the Database ............................................................................................... 20 The Ground War ........................................................................................................ 21 Social Media Tools ..................................................................................................... 23 Online Advertising ...................................................................................................... 24 Effects of Obama for America .................................................................................... 27 Chapter 4: Canadian Provincial Political Party Case Studies ........................................ 29 The Parties ................................................................................................................. 29 The Databases ........................................................................................................... 32 The Information .......................................................................................................... 37 Chapter 5: Data and Targeting in Canadian Parties ...................................................... 40 Supporter Scores and Voter Contact ......................................................................... 40 Polling ........................................................................................................................ 45 Canada Post Mail ....................................................................................................... 47 Online Targeting Tools ............................................................................................... 50 Comparative Analysis ................................................................................................ 57 Chapter 6: Democratic Implications of Advanced Election Targeting ............................ 63 The Data Revolution .................................................................................................. 63 Integrity of the Process .............................................................................................. 65 The use of Personal Data .......................................................................................... 66 Data, Analytics, and Party Functions ......................................................................... 67 iii Deteriorating Public Discourse ................................................................................... 70 Chapter 7: Conclusion ................................................................................................... 74 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 79 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 84 iv Chapter 1: Introduction Recent advances in technology create an unprecedented ability to gather and analyze information on the electorate, changing the way election campaigns function in North American democracy. Advanced computers and the internet enable the digitization of data that was previously stored on paper, meaning that it can be analyzed and manipulated faster than ever before.1 Computers are now powerful enough and widely accessible enough to allow almost any campaign to conduct advanced data mining, analytics, and targeting. This capability has changed how political parties run election campaigns. Campaigns now have enough information on the electorate to target people at the individual level, based on consumer preferences and partisan identifiers gathered from a wide variety of information sources. Overall, data and analytics are increasing the efficiency of almost every aspect of the election campaign. These advanced targeting techniques are being widely used by high profile campaigns in the United States, with the most notable being the Obama for America 2012 presidential election campaign. There is much discussion about these data fueled innovations in American campaigns, but it remains to be seen if Canadian campaigns are making the same advances. This begs the question: to what extent are Canadian political parties utilizing database assisted targeting and analytics to run their election campaigns and what are the factors that affect their ability to do this? 1 Judith S. Trent, Robert V. Friedenbert, and Robert E. Denton Jr., Political Campaign Communications: Principles and Practices, Seventh edition (Plymouth, UK: Roman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2011), 79. 1 After consulting
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