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India's Approach to Asia INDIA’S APPROACH TO ASIA Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility INDIA’S APPROACH TO ASIA Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility Editor Namrata Goswami INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS India’s Approach to Asia: Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility Editor: Namrata Goswami First Published in 2016 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-870-5 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch Flat No.213, Athena-2, Clover Acropolis, Viman Nagar, Pune-411014 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Foreword ix Acknowledgements xi India’s Strategic Approach to Asia 1 Namrata Goswami RISING POWERS AND THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM Rising Powers in the Emerging World Order: An Overview, with a Reflection on the Consequences for India 21 Barry Buzan ASIAN REGIONAL ORDER 1. Panchsheel–Multilateralism and Competing Regionalism: The Indian Approach towards Regional Cooperation and the Regional Order in South Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Mekong-Ganga 35 Arndt Michael 2. India as the Norm-builder and Norm Contributor 54 Santishree Dhulipudi and Rimli Basu 3. How India is Viewed as a Regional Actor 76 S.D. Muni INDIA AND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS 4. The Geo-strategic Context of the India-Russia Partnership 85 P. Stobdan 5. Framing US-India Relations 98 Holli A. Semetko vi India’s Approach to Asia: Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility 6. India’s Strategic Partnership: A Perspective from Vietnam 115 Vo Xuan Vinh 7. The Japan-India Strategic Partnership: A New Hope for Asia 127 Satoru Nagao ASIAN ECONOMIES AND RESOURCE COMPETITION 8. Looking East: Security through Greater Cross Border Connectivity 143 Rajat M. Nag 9. Debating Physical Connectivity between India and ASEAN: Economics versus Security 164 Sinderpal Singh 10. The Impact of Terrorism and Organised Crime on Asian Economies: Implications for India 183 Prem Mahadevan THE RISE OF CHINA 11. India-China Relations: The Return of the Sub-Region 201 Madhu Bhalla 12. China-India Relations: Objectives and Future Priorities 222 Pang Zhongying and Rupak Sapkota 13. China’s Military Modernisation and its Impact on India 237 Gordon G. Chang 14. China and its Territorial Disputes: An Increasing Security Dilemma 257 D.S. Rajan MARITIME SECURITY IN ASIA 15. Indian Maritime Doctrine and Asian Security: Intentions and Capabilities 273 Gurpreet S. Khurana 16. The Indo-Pacific and the Growing Strategic Importance of the Bay of Bengal 290 David Brewster 17. The Indian Navy’s Security Role in Littoral Asia 306 Abhijit Singh Contents vii 18. Deciphering Oriental Mysteries of Silk, Pearls and Diamonds—Trios, Quartets and Quintets: Maritime Dimensions of India’s Strategic Dilemmas in the Changing Asian Power Balance 320 Francis A. Kornegay, Jr. CYBER, SPACE, BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR SECURITY IN ASIA 19. Cybersecurity, Global Governance and New Risk 343 Sean S. Costigan 20. A Perspective on Space Security 362 Ranjana Kaul 21. Chemical and Biological Dimensions of Jihadi Terrorism 372 Animesh Roul 22. The Emerging Asian Nuclear Order and India 380 Rajiv Nayan MAJOR STRATEGIC REGIONS OF ASIA 23. India’s Regional Strategy: Balancing Geopolitics with Geoeconomics in South Asia 397 Smruti S. Pattanaik and Ashok K. Behuria 24. India’s Central Asian Strategic Paradoxes: The Impact of Strategic Autonomy in the Emerging Asian Regional Architecture 418 Micha’el Tanchum 25. The Dynamics of Change in India-Southeast Asia Relations: Beyond Economics to Strategic Partnerships 434 Shankari Sundararaman FUTURE TRENDS AND SCENARIOS 26. Strategic Trends in Asia: Future Directions 455 Boris Volkhonsky 27. Asian Security Contentions: Trends and Scenarios 464 S. Samuel C. Rajiv viii India’s Approach to Asia: Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility 28. Decoding India’s Agenda: New Ideas and Emerging Trends in Asian Security 488 Shruti Pandalai List of Contributors 513 Index 517 Foreword The book titled India’s Approach to Asia: Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility is the outcome of the 17th Asian Security Conference on the theme “Asian Security: Comprehending the Indian Approach” held at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), in February 2015. With critical enquiries emerging on India’s own vision and role in shaping and managing regional and international security and how other countries view these, IDSA deemed it appropriate to utilize its flagship Asian Security Conference platform to deliberate on these issues with participants from India and many other countries. Issues that were discussed and debated included, but were not limited to, major power rivalries, tensions over disputed territories, freedom of Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs), security dilemmas and military preparedness, the robustness of regional institutional mechanisms, intra-state conflicts and last but not the least, the perspectives of major actors like Russia, China and India on Asian regional order: whether they view it as purely competitive or cooperative-competitive. Certain key ideas that emerged during the conference and which now form a critical part of the book are: how a responsible power in international affairs should manage a peaceful system; what could lead to regional conflicts over territorial disputes; and the emerging strategic partnerships between India and the US, Russia, Vietnam as well as Japan. Several chapters in this book cover in depth the potential for conflict over resources in Asia, the importance of connectivity in Asia as well as the challenges faced by India in its neighbourhood towards fulfilling the expectations thrust upon it as a result of it being increasingly viewed as a power to reckon with in Asia and the world; being one of the most vibrant economies and possessing a significant military capability. The issue of maritime security, both in the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, are discussed by several authors in the book. Pertinent policy differences have been outlined by authors on intentions, capabilities and strategic goals when it comes to the Oceans. India is seen as a regional security provider which would then mean that it has to expand its capabilities and reach in the maritime sphere, x India’s Approach to Asia: Strategy, Geopolitics and Responsibility and manage tensions in the seas in a peaceful manner in partnership with like- minded countries. India has always been at the forefront of the fight against terrorism. The book offers a perspective on India’s approach to terrorism detailing not only its approach to this threat but also the limitations imposed by its geographic location given some of the terrorist threats it has faced have been externally driven. The danger of the rising terrorist threat in West Asia especially the ISIS is also discussed. The importance of connectivity across Asia via the Asian Highway and Asian Railway in providing better livelihood and development for people in Asia is deliberated upon in the book. In this context, authors have offered their views on India’s “Look East/Act East Policy’ as well as identified ways and means to better implement the policy. Significantly, authors have also discussed India’s role in South Asia, Southeast Asia as well as Central Asia informing readers about not only the level of engagement but also the challenges, as well as suggesting solutions to some of these challenges. The book also includes chapters on alternative strategic scenarios with regard to the future of Asian security and India’s role in managing and contributing to a peaceful world order. The key thematic questions that were covered during the conference and which forms the basis of the book are: What role can India play in shaping the structural and normative parameters for Asian security?; what are India’s strategic preferences and choices for Asia’s security future?; has India transcended its regional role as a South Asian power to the broader regional context of Asia? It is hoped that the book adds to the existing literature on India’s role in Asian Security and that readers will find the chapters interesting. Wish you a happy reading. Brig. Rumel Dahiya (Retd) Deputy Director General, IDSA Acknowledgements First and foremost, let me take this opportunity to thank the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) for reposing its trust in me by entrusting me with the task of coordinating the 17th Asian Security Conference (ASC). I sincerely thank former Director General of IDSA, Dr. Arvind Gupta for his support shown to me towards conducting the conference in an efficient manner and delivering the valedictory address. The unwavering support and encouragement offered by Brig. Rumel Dahiya (Retd), Deputy Director General of IDSA was of such a nature that my task felt lighter and easier as I knew without doubt that he was always around to help in any contingency. Group Captain (Retd) Ajey Lele was always a phone call away to help in any manner possible towards successful conduct of the conference. Thank you Ajey for your constant presence and support. I also take this opportunity to thank Admiral R.K. Dhowan, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, ADC, Chief of Naval Staff, for delivering an excellent inaugural address that set the stage for the conference. I thank Prof.
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