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High Price 7/9/18, 1�39 PM High Price High price 7/9/18, 1(39 PM High price Israeli officials stated on Monday that a prisoner swap with Hezbollah will take place in roughly two weeks. The swap will guarantee the release of five Lebanese detainees – Samir Kantar purportedly being one of them – and the remains of Hezbollah militiamen as well as Palestinian prisoners in return for two Israeli POWs. Negotiations over the deal have been going on since late 2006 under the auspices of the United Nations, and more recently under German mediation. This Sunday, June 29, Israel’s cabinet voted in favor of the deal. The move has been met with criticism in Israel over the fate of the two soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, and the release Kantar, who is currently serving a 542-year murder sentence. But according to Dr. Imad Salamey, assistant professor of politics and international affairs at LAU, the https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/high_price Page 1 of 4 High price 7/9/18, 1(39 PM swap comes at a critical time for both sides and can be interpreted as a victory for outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The swap is also deflecting attention from “Olmert’s various internal scandals, and reassures the Israeli public that the government is still well,” he said. In addition, the move emphasizes that “Hezbollah no longer has a pretext to attack Israeli soldiers” and will also help Israel put pressure on the Lebanese government to negotiate, as “the major aspects of conflict [between the states] have been reduced.” On the Hezbollah front, the swap will allow for the party to improve its image after it used its weapons domestically in May, as it reinforces its “image as a resistance movement [that achieved] its aims in the July 2006 operation.” The technicalities The Israeli daily Haaretz reported that the swap would take place on July 12, in parallel with Hezbollah celebrations marking the second anniversary of the July War. Israeli defense officials told Israeli public radio, however, that the two weeks are needed to guarantee that the remains handed over by Hezbollah will in fact be those of the two POWs. Though Israeli officials appear to be operating under the conviction that the soldiers are dead, Hezbollah has yet to offer any confirmation. Part of the prisoner swap will allegedly involve an exchange of intelligence, with Hezbollah offering information on the fate of Air Force Navigator Ron Arad, who went missing in Lebanon in 1986, in return for word on four Iranian diplomats kidnapped in Beirut by Kataeb militia members in 1982. Since 2004, Israel has insisted that Kantar would only be handed over in exchange for information on Arad. Haaretz reported that Hezbollah has officially told Israel that Arad is in fact dead. The paper also wrote that https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/high_price Page 2 of 4 High price 7/9/18, 1(39 PM Hezbollah’s report on Arad, which includes an account of its efforts to locate the pilot, will need to be approved by Israel before the next stage of the prisoner swap is completed. The final stage of the swap, which will allegedly occur in just over a month, will involve the release of an undetermined number of Palestinian prisoners. These dynamics will boost Hezbollah’s image regionally, said Salamey, emphasizing its role as a resistance organization. However, it also underlines the fact that Hezbollah is bypassing the Lebanese government as a non-state actor and a regional player. Welcome back, Kantar Forty-six-year-old Kantar, a member of the Palestinian Liberation Front, was arrested by Israel in 1979 for the murder of Danny Haran, his four-year-old daughter, Eilat, and two policemen, and he has been detained in an Israeli prison ever since. Kantar shot Haran and then drowned him at a beach in the Israeli coastal town of Nahariya while his daughter watched. Eilat’s head was smashed on a rock and then subjected to repeated blows from the butt of a rifle until her skull was crushed. Kantar has been hailed by Hezbollah as a hero, and preparations for his “welcome home” celebration are already under way. Hezbollah flags and portraits of Kantar have been plastered on the walls of numerous southern cities. Kantar’s name returned to the headlines in late May when Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah claimed his imminent release in a speech marking the eighth anniversary of the liberation of South Lebanon from Israeli forces. Though Nasrallah had made such claims in previous speeches, this time it was followed up by a number of other significant signals: the revelation of an impending prisonerswap and Hezbollah’s June 1 “surprise” handover of the remains of Israeli soldiers killed in 2006, just https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/high_price Page 3 of 4 High price 7/9/18, 1(39 PM after Nassim Nisr was released. At the onset of the July War, Hezbollah demanded Kantar’s return in exchange for the soldiers, but Israel declined, instead launching a devastating 34-day war on Lebanon in an attempt to disarm the party. Implications According to Salamey, the move could have negative long-term implications for the party, particularly as “the pretext for any future operation to launch an attack against Israel has been weakened,” and tensions on the borders will decline in the absence of contention over the prisoners. Regardless, Hezbollah will clearly capitalize on the impending exchange as a victory for the party. This is particularly because reports suggest that the exchange will likely be celebrated on the second anniversary of the July War, adding to Hezbollah’s list of “victories.” https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/high_price Page 4 of 4.
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