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Disclaimer a Number of Megatrends Are Reshaping the Global Landscape Disclaimer This document is issued by The Beijing Axis. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this The Global Context: How will Asia affect document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or omissions of fact or for any opinions expressed herein. Opinions, projections and estimates are subject to change without notice. This document is for demand and will investment in Latin information purposes only, and solely for private circulation. The information contained here has been compiled America continue? from sources believed to be reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information is correct and that the views are accurate, The Beijing Axis cannot be held responsible for any loss, irrespective of how it may arise. In addition, this document does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or to adopt any investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements or events in any form. Some investments discussed here may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance; the value, price or income from www.thebeijingaxis.com investments may fall as well as rise. The Beijing Axis, and/or a connected company may have a position in any of the investments mentioned in this document. All concerned are advised to form their own independent judgement with respect to any matter contained in this document. CHINA, A STRATEGIC LOOK AT ITS Javier Cuñat DEVELOPMENT – EXPOMIN 2012 General Manager, Beijing Axis Strategy Santiago, Chile, 10 April 2012 The Beijing Axis The Beijing Axis 1 A number of megatrends are reshaping the global landscape 2 Beijing Axis Beijing Axis Beijing Axis Beijing Axis 1 Commodities Capital Procurement Strategy Emerging Market Rising Global • Commodity Marketing • Transaction Origination • Comprehensive • Strategy Formulation GDP Growth Integration 3 • Commodity Procurement • Corporate Finance Procurement Solutions • Strategy Implementation Advisory 9 Rising Risks The Beijing Axis’ Knowledge & Network Synergies Industrialisation and Urbanisation Founded in 2002; has successfully worked with many international and Chinese MNCs Stronger Emerging Megatrends Market Companies 4 Operates in four synergistic cross-border China businesses Rising Emerging Market Consumption Provides services across various sectors, with a core focus on the MINING, RESOURCES, INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING and 8 OTHER SERVICES sectors Aging of the Global Rising Population (DM Provides solutions to international firms as they act in unfamiliar territory in China/Asia Energy and and EM) New Commodity Global Provides solutions to Chinese/Asian firms as they venture out and ‘go global’ Consumption 5 Technologies 7 in EM 6 The Beijing Axis 2 Source: Deutsche Bank; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 3 Key global factors Agenda The backdrop 1. A Closer Look at China/Asia Resource Consumption China’s rise … labour market and supply shock as a producer … engine as a consumer … investor New competitive lines and forces, winners/losers – the rise of Asia, BRICS, etc. 2. China’s Outbound Investment – with specific reference to Latin America A two-speed global economy over the medium and long term 3. Implications and Future Trends A lasting GDP trajectory in Asia, Africa and Latin America – governance, growth, stability, infrastructure, confidence, etc. The issues now 4. Final Word Europe broken … fragile developed markets – and knock-on effects? China’s landing – soft or hard? Implications for growth and resource demand? Tapping into the China story vs. over-reliance on China and need to diversify economic ties Strategic intelligence – to make decisions in boardrooms around the world in order to reposition Source: The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 4 TheThe Beijing Beijing Axis Axis 5 There is an on-going debate regarding China’s slowing growth – mainly China’s economy is heading for a soft landing – more moderate and more fuelled by the knock-on effect of the ongoing European debt crisis as well sustainable growth as the potential property bubble burst Representative quotes China’s Quarterly Y-o-Y GDP Growth Rate (2009- Contribution of Components to China’s GDP (%, 2012F) 1998-2012F) “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are “China’s economy is headed for a ‘hard down, cement production is down, steel 15% 140 landing’ this year as weaker demand production is down, construction stocks are Net Exports of Goods and Services Gross Capital Formation overseas chokes off exports.” - Gary down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact” - 120 Policy easing to Final Consumption Expenditure (Household + Government) Shilling, Financial Analyst and commentator Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief 3-year (2009-2011) provide room for 100 for WSJ, Forbes, and The New York Times Asian and emerging-market strategist. average: 9.4% growth moderation 10% 80 Effect from stimulus 60 package 40 Government stimulus 2012F y-o-y GDP: 5% 8.0% “If China doesn’t change course, and in a big way, package (USD 586 bn) 20 “Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much the country will experience an economic crisis…. damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and 0 China is running out of time to fix the problems of its 2011 y-o-y GDP: the world?” – Paul Krugman, American Economist, economy” – Michael Schuman, Asia business 9.2% -20 Falling net exports op-ed columnist for The New York Times. contribution correspondent for TIME Magazine 0% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1F -40 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11F 12F 2009 2010 2011 2012F Source: Various; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 6 Source: CNBS; Deutsche Bank; Morgan Stanley; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 7 Emerging economies are outperforming the developed world in terms of China is the largest emerging economy in the region. Other emerging economic growth. Asia is leading this transformation in the global balance markets including India and Indonesia among others, have also grown rapidly Regional GDP Comparison (USD bn, 2015F)* Asia-Pacific Countries GDP Comparison (USD bn, 2010) Size of the bubble: Nominal GDP (USD bn, 2010)* Asia-Pacific is expected to Bubble Size: Nominal GDP (USD GDP Average Growth Rate (%, 2011E-2015F) GDP Growth Rate (%, 2010) account for the largest share of bn, 2015F) Regional 2010 GDP CAGR 10 world GDP (34%) by 2015F Breakdown (USD bn) (2000-2010) Asia-Pacific 15 China is the largest Singapore Singapore grew 223 Eastern Asia 6,443.9 12.4% economy in the Southern Asia 1,968.4 11.9% the fastest in 2010 region South-Eastern Asia 1,473.1 9.4% Shaded bubbles represent China 2011E figures Western Asia 1,685.4 9.4% Rising real incomes and 25,807 India Taiwan Other Asia Developed Asia 5,263.1 1.2% high commodity prices 431 Oceania 1,158.7 8.4% 1,643 5,878 will drive growth 4,486 Forecast world 10 Developed economies are average GDP 2011E to 2015F 2,259 expected to continue to lose growth until Thailand Though large, Japan is Africa Philippines World average 5 4,280 South America share in world GDP in the 319 Malaysia Hong Kong a slow growing 2015F: 3.95% 189 238 Korea GDP growth for coming years 104 225 economy 104 2010: 5% 707 208 1,007 2015F GDP 2011* Growth Rate 2010 GDP Per Other Asian BRICS 5 Vietnam (USD bn) (%) Capita (USD) North America Indonesia Countries 1,480 5,459 Australia China 10,903.6 9.2% 4,382.1 19,634 India 2,359.2 7.4% 1,370.8 Russia SE economies together New Zealand 1,236 Russia 1,926.1 4.1% 10,355.7 Japan Brazil 2,546.7 2.9% 10,816.5 20,337 are the third- largest in the 140 Europe South Africa 425.6 3.1% 7,274.4 2011E to 2015F % of World GDP (2015F) region GDP Per Capita (2010) 0 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 *Note: Data based on IMF World Economic Outlook *Note: Other Asia includes Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, Burma, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. *Note: The regional breakdown accords to UNCTAD. Regional Breakdown numbers will not add to the total due to overlap Source: IMF 2012; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 8 Source: IMF; The Beijing Axis Analysis The Beijing Axis 9 Asia has become a fundamentally important engine of capital, trade and China and India are regaining their position – overall emerging economies commodity consumption worldwide are set to progress Asia-Pacific as % of World Total (%, 1990, 2000, 2010) Historical Share of Global GDP (1-2050E) Advanced vs Emerging Economies GDP (USD bn) 60,000 Advanced Economies 100% 100% Emerging Economies 50,000 Advanced Economies % World GDP (rhs) GDP FDI Inflows FDI Outflows GDI % of GDP By 2050, China and 90% 80% Rest of GDP India will together 40,000 ROW APAC ROW* APAC* ROW APAC Gross Domestic Investment account for 44% of Emerging economies 80% 30,000 60% 100% 100% 100% 100% global GDP catching up with Rest of the world advanced economies 70% 20,000 Narrowing gap 40% 10,000 50% 50% 50% 50% 60% 0 20% 50% North America, Europe, Japan 28% 31% 30% 27% 28% 27% 29% 26% 12% 13% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 7% 10% 2012E 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 30% China and India GDP of Key Selected Economies (USD bn) India Exports as % of GDP Imports as % of GDPCopper Consumption Steel Consumption accounted for around 20% 20,000 United States Russia Japan Rest of GDP Exports Rest of GDP Imports ROW
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