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The Heat Is On www.nature.com/nature Vol 450 | Issue no. 7168 | 15 November 2007 The heat is on At December’s climate-change meeting, everyone can agree on one thing: it is make-or-break time. ext month’s United Nations Climate Change Conference the effects of climate change. Several wealthy nations, such as the Neth- in Bali, Indonesia, is charged with drawing up a clear and erlands, are forging ahead with sophisticated adaptation strategies. Nconvincing road map that will lead to a robust international But for the most vulnerable societies, adaptation to climate change climate-change agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. That is a ultimately boils down to poverty alleviation. Such a requirement must momentous challenge but, given the right approach from partici- co-exist with the politically awkward fact that the new accord must pants, not an insurmountable one. take into account substantial contributory factors that were excluded Evidence is fast mounting that time is running out for nations to from Kyoto — including emissions from air transport and the huge unite in a credible response to climate change. The International impact of deforestation. “The road map to emerge Energy Agency said last week that energy-related emissions of carbon A long-term international dioxide are set to grow from 27 gigatonnes in 2005 to 42 gigatonnes commitment to reduced emis- from Bali will have to by 2030 — a rise of 56%. Other estimates project even higher growth, sions will also involve far greater cover territory that the and also reveal, alarmingly, that ‘carbon intensity’ — the level of car- collaboration between nations on Kyoto Protocol was bon emissions required to sustain a given level of economic activity the research and development pro- unable to reach.” — is actually growing again. grammes needed to come up with Bad faith still clouds the implementation of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, more alternative-energy sources. Already, market forces are pulling which expires in 2012. US withdrawal from the agreement and the trea- a diverse range of solar and wind options through to more cost-effec- ty’s subsequent failure to make much noticeable impact on its signato- tive operation. But there are major energy problems, such as carbon ries’ emissions leave ample scope for ugly and fruitless recrimination. capture and sequestration, that will require substantial public-sector Yet the timing of the Bali meeting is, politically, rather more aus- investment to move forward. picious than was the case at Kyoto ten years ago. A new politics of climate change is unfolding in Australia (see page 336) and the United Thinking big States (see page 340), two of the nations where opposition to effec- All of this is a tall order for the representatives of more than tive international action has been strongest (see also pages 333 and 180 nations expected to gather at Bali on 3–14 December. A great 342). This is the context for a new international agreement that must deal will hinge on the approach taken by the two largest emitters, transcend the Kyoto accord by setting in motion a vision that is more China and the United States. broadly based and more ambitious than the cap-and-trade principle There will be a temptation for China to assume a stance as defender of the original agreement. of the poor nations against the malign interests of the rich. It would certainly be politically feasible for it to point to the failure of the United If the cap fits States to fulfil its earlier agreement that developed nations should act The road map that will emerge from Bali need not cling to cap-and- first, and to argue that there is no moral case for China to do so when its trade as its mainstay. Indeed, cap-and-trade has yet to be fully tested per capita emissions are so much lower than those of other countries. as a mechanism for reducing emissions. It was originally conceived to Fortunately, there are signs that China knows better than to adopt deal with sulphur emissions from power stations — an issue in which this dead-end strategy. There are clear signs that Beijing is fully aware the costs and benefits are relatively small — but doubts are emerging of the threat posed to China’s future development by climate change about its ability to cope with the far larger issue of greenhouse-gas emis- and, as usual, its leadership will be taking the long view. Despite the sions. Nevertheless, it should not be abandoned, but other approaches, rampant construction of coal plants in the past few years, China knows including the direct imposition of carbon taxes, may ultimately prove that its energy balance has to change, and it can use the Bali meeting to to be equally as potent in raising the cost of burning fossil fuels. assert itself as a global power, offering to lead, rather than to follow. In addition to striking the right balance between Kyoto-type targets The outlook for the US delegation is less promising. Its negotiators and fresh approaches to global action on climate change, the Bali will include ideologues who will stop at nothing to derail the hum- road map will have to cover territory that the previous accord was ble progress the rest of the world has managed to make through the unable to reach. For example, it will have to set terms for the direct Kyoto accord. The only thing that can save them from themselves is involvement of developing nations in the international push to reduce President Bush’s possible desire to end his reign on a slightly more carbon emissions. That means the participation of nations such as positive note than the salutary one on which he began it, with his India, Brazil and China — the last of which has, the International March 2001 decision that the United States would withdraw from the Energy Agency believes, this year surpassed the United States as the Kyoto agreement. The next American president is, thankfully, likely world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide. to take a more constructive approach to global warming after 2009. The poorest countries cannot be expected to be part of this push The Bali meeting is the global community’s chance to prepare for the here, but they must benefit from assistance for their efforts to adapt to opening that this should provide. ■ 319 EDITORIALS NATURE|Vol 450|15 November 2007 Studies on healthy volunteers have shown the cognitive effects of Enhancing, not cheating enhancing drugs to be mild, but sufficient to be considered helpful. The pills with least risky side effects seem to be methylphenidate A broad debate about the use of drugs that improve (prescribed for attention-deficit disorder) and modafinil (prescribed cognition for both the healthy and the ill is needed. for narcolepsy). Studies, mostly in the United States, have documented “Studies have f all the arguments levelled against taking drugs for human usage of drugs for cognitive enhance- documented usage enhancement, the idea that it is cheating has least power. Yes, ment by 5–15% of students, and anec- of drugs for cognitive Owhen organized competition or formal testing of abilities is dotes abound of use by postdocs and enhancement by the name of the game, drug-based strengthening is questionable and academics. 5–15% of students.” regulations against it need to be adhered to. As described in a valuable discus- More debatable are arguments by opponents of drug-based enhance- sion paper from the British Medical Association (www.bma.org.uk/ ment that it is cheating against oneself. “Personal achievements imper- ap.nsf/Content/CognitiveEnhancement2007), these drugs have an sonally achieved are not truly the achievements of persons,” said the honourable track record in helping the afflicted — and they could do report Beyond Therapy by the US President’s Council on Bioethics, yet more to that end. The risks of long-term use are not well under- chaired at the time by ethicist Leon Kass. Yet imagine if a researcher stood (although that also applies to many approved drug therapies). could improve his or her ability to memorize the postulated connec- And the ethical issues are not to be ignored, although the document tions in a complex signalling pathway central to tumour development, lacks a description of who stands to make money from enhance- or if a musician could improve his or her concentration and deliver a ment drugs. Appropriately, it reviews the issues and sets out topics for better performance on the night. Far from cheating on themselves or debate, rather than advocating use or restriction of enhancers. others, they would be delivering a higher return on their investment of The debate itself is not new, but it has been confined to relatively effort, and indeed on society’s investment in them. We all benefit. small circles. Yet the use of cognitive-enhancing drugs by both the ill What is sure is that opponents of enhancement are, to a degree, and the healthy — and those in the substantial grey zone overlapping whistling in the wind. They raise other spectres — unfairness of access both — is already more widespread than is generally appreciated. (although today’s enhancing dose is cheaper than a cup of coffee), The lack of debate on regulation by nations or by institutions, such possibilities of employer coercion and the loss of human dignity or of as universities, is increasingly problematic. And those in favour of the ‘natural’ — but ultimately, to little avail. Many healthy people still chemically induced cognitive enhancement for the healthy need to opt for chemical enhancements of all sorts, as suppliers of cosmetics develop their scientific and ethical case, because it will be all too easy and some pharmaceuticals know well.
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